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Off-Topic / eduroam credenciais
« em: 2015-12-15 11:40:39 »
Como posso impedir que no windows 8.1 o sistema volta e meia se esqueça das credencias de uma rede wi-fi e torne a perdir para as introduzir?
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Comunidade de Traders / O dinheiro vai-se buscar onde o há
« em: 2013-10-11 10:44:11 »
מנא, מנא, תקל, ופרסין
Não há nada mais forte do que a realidade para ensinar o interesse de se poupar fora do sistema monetário.
Segue-se a notícia sobre o imposto de 10% sobre os depósitos proposto pelo FMI:
Não há nada mais forte do que a realidade para ensinar o interesse de se poupar fora do sistema monetário.
Segue-se a notícia sobre o imposto de 10% sobre os depósitos proposto pelo FMI:
Citar
Le FMI préconise une taxe sur l'épargne des ménages
Dans un rapport, le FMI s'inquiète de l'endettement des Etats européens et propose donc une taxe de 10% sur l'épargne des ménages pour y remédier !
Le 10/10/2013 à 7:56
http://www.bfmtv.com/economie/fmi-preconise-une-taxe-lepargne-menages-620528.html
Un tout petit paragraphe à la toute fin d'un document de 49 pages, dans un rapport du FMI. Le genre de document que l'on commence justement à lire par la fin. Un paragraphe en forme de proposition: et si l'on créait un prélèvement une fois pour toute sur le capital?
Il y a évidemment un point d'interrogation, mais aussi un raisonnement charpenté. L'endettement des Etats avancés est tel qu'on n'a pas le choix. Une taxe sur l'épargne privée a l'avantage de ne pas perturber le système. Certains diront même qu'elle est juste.
Taxe prélevée une seule fois
Mais pour cela il faut deux conditions. Que personne ne puisse y échapper et être absolument certain qu'elle ne sera prélevée qu'une seule fois.
Le rapport évoque les travaux de plusieurs économistes basés sur des exemples historiques où l'hypothèse a été envisagée pour désendetter des Etats.
Puis, il conclut si l'on veut revenir à des niveaux d'endettement d'avant la crise et compte tenu des calculs concernant 15 pays de la zone euro, qu'il conviendrait de mettre en place une imposition de 10% sur tous les ménages disposant d'une épargne positive.
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Comunidade de Traders / O Príncipe
« em: 2013-07-20 15:44:26 »
Um artigo interessante sobre o Outono Árabe e o crescente cisma entre o tio Sam e a casa de Saud.
Citar
Saudis’ Unprecedented Break with Washington over Egypt
By F. William Engdahl
Global Research, July 18, 2013
http://www.globalresearch.ca/saudis-unprecedented-break-with-washington-over-egypt/5343092
One of the least commented aspects of ousting Egypt’s Morsi is the defiant act of the Saudi Royal House in backing the ouster of the Brotherhood and supporting the military restoration. The Saudi move is unprecedented in its open defiance of White House declared backing for the Muslim Brotherhood. The implications of the split are huge.
Twilight in the desert?
Since the time in 1945 on his return from the fateful Yalta Conference, that US President Roosevelt met Saudi King Ibn Saud and won exclusive rights for US Rockefeller-group oil companies to Saudi Arabia’s vast oil wealth, the relationship between Saudi and US foreign policy has been one of almost satrapy status for the Saudis.[1] Following the Kissinger-orchestrated 1973 “oil shock” in which OPEC raised its price by some 400%, Washington extracted a pledge from the Saudis that they would insure that OPEC sold its oil only in dollars, thereby ensuring the continued dominance of the US dollar as world reserve currency. In return, Washington agreed to sell US arms including training the Saudi Air Force.[2]
And in 2010 just as Washington launched its Arab Spring “democracy” offensive in Tunisia, Egypt and across the Islamic arc of crisis, the Obama Administration announced the largest arms deal in US history. The US agreed to sell the Saudis 84 F-15s new and upgrade another 70 as part of a €46 billion deal, the biggest arms deal in US history, as it prepared to isolate Iran. [3]
As we reported in an earlier article, before the Egyptian military coup, the Saudis had given secret assurance to Defense Minister and Chief of the Army, General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, that the Saudis along with other conservative Gulf oil states including Kuwait and UAE would guarantee financial support should the Obama Administration cut the €1 billion annual aid to Egypt’s military in retaliation for ousting their man, Morsi.[4]
On July 17, the newly-sworn-in Egyptian transitional government confirmed that it has received €6 billion in grants, loans and fuel from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Saudi Arabia approved €4 billion in aid to Egypt and the UAE has offered €2 billion in desperately needed support for the economy. The Saudi funds comprise a €1.5 billion central bank deposit, €1.5 billion in energy products, and €750 million in cash, Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf said. The UAE will make a €750 million grant to Egypt and a €1.5 billion loan in the form of an interest-free deposit with Egypt’s central bank. [5]
The news is a double slap-in-the-face to Washington who had insisted that Morsi’s government buckle under to harsh IMF conditionalities as precondition for financial help
Qatar reacts dramatically
Conspicuously, one Gulf energy-rich state absent from the aid is Qatar whose Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani had poured more than €6 billion in Egypt since the revolution two-and-a-half years ago and perhaps another €7 billion to bankroll Islamists in Libya, Syria and Gaza, the Palestinian enclave run by Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Qataris home to the US Central Command’s Forward Headquarters and the Combined Air Operations Center. And, most notably, until the Saudi and UAE-backed military coup against Brotherhood rule in Egypt on July 3, Qatar was home to leading members of the Muslim Brotherhood and one of its major financial backers in Syria, Egypt, Libya, and across the Islamic world. [6]
Within minutes of the Saudi and UAE backed Egypt coup, the Emir of Qatar took note of the implications and announced his abdication in favor of his son, Tamim. Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, who had shaped Qatar’s pro-Muslim Brotherhood foreign policy, has been silenced, replaced by a military man who had been serving as deputy interior minister. The new Qatar leadership is now using words like “reassessment”, “recalibration” and “corrections” to discuss their foreign policy. In brief, they dare not risk total isolation within the Saudi-dominated Gulf Arab states.[7]
The Saudi decision to take bold action to stop what it saw as a disastrous US Islamic strategy of backing Brotherhood revolutions across the Islamic world has dealt a blow to the mad US strategy of believing it can use the Brotherhood as a political force to control the Islamic world more tightly and use it to destabilize China, Russia and the Islamic parts of Central Asia.
The Saudi monarchy began to fear that the secretive Brotherhood would one day rise against their rule as well. They never forgave George W. Bush and Washington for toppling the Baath Party secular dictatorship of Saddam Hussein in Iraq that brought a majority Shi’ite to power there, nor the US decision to topple close Saudi ally Mubarak in Egypt. America’s dutiful “vassal state” in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, revolted on July 3 by backing and supporting the military coup in Egypt.
Aside from loudly protesting the Egyptian generals’ coup against their Brotherhood allies, Washington so far has been able to do little, an indication of the declining US global power. The Pentagon has sent two amphibious assault ships carrying 2,600 Marines to the southern Egyptian Red Sea coast. The huge USS Kearsarge with 1,800 Marines and the USS San Antonio with 800 Marines, “moved up into the Red Sea and parked off Egypt, because we don’t know what’s going to happen,” stated General James Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps.
Washington is suddenly in a major foreign policy disarray as the new Egyptian interim government is sworn in. To be continued…
Notes
[1] F. William Engdahl, Gods of Money, 2009, edition.engdahl, Wiesbaden, pp. 190-193.
[2] F. William Engdahl, A Century of War, edition.engdahl, 2011, Wiesbaden, pp. 152-156.
[3] Ian Black, Barack Obama to authorise record $60bn Saudi arms sale, The Guardian, UK, 13 September 2010, accessed in http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/13/us-saudi-arabia-arms-deal.
[4] F. William Engdahl, Washington Islamist Strategy in Crisis as Morsi Toppled, Veterans Today, 4 July, 2013, accessed in http://www.veteranstoday.com/2013/07/04/washington-islamist-strategy-in-crisis-as-morsi-toppled/.
[5] Reuters/AP, Egypt wins $ 8 billion Saudi and UAE aid names PM, 17 July, 2013, accessed in http://www.arabnews.com/news/457496.
[6] N.P., Qatar’s foreign policy: Change of tack, The Economist, UK, July 15th 2013, accessed in http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/07/qatar-s-foreign-policy.
[7] Ibid.
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Comunidade de Traders / The man who bought the world
« em: 2013-06-16 15:33:02 »
Segundo os dados mais recentes do TIC o tio Ben está a fazer um excelente trabalho a comprar o que o mundo está a vender, pois no mês de abril o mundo vendeu 120 biliões de dívida pública enquanto que os meses anteriores o resto do mundo andava a comprá-la à taxa de 45-50 biliões por mês.
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Comunidade de Traders / Quiz: taxas de juro elevadas
« em: 2013-06-09 17:44:52 »
Para pôr os vossos neurónios a trabalhar, trago a seguinte quiz:
Que tipo de negócios prospera num ambiente de taxas de juro elevadas?
Ps. Não está implícita a existência de inflação elevada / descontrolada.
Que tipo de negócios prospera num ambiente de taxas de juro elevadas?
Ps. Não está implícita a existência de inflação elevada / descontrolada.
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Comunidade de Traders / In deposits guaranteed up to $250,000, we do not trust
« em: 2013-06-01 18:19:52 »
Deposits Guaranteed Up to $250,000—Maybe
What does it mean to be ‘Backed by the full faith and credit’ of the U.S.?
May 28, 2013, 6:53 p.m. ET
By ALEX J. POLLOCK
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323744604578472770934666526.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
The banking and government-debt crisis in Cyprus has focused everyone’s attention on the fact that it is possible for bank depositors to take losses on their deposits. This has surprised many people, who assumed that governments will always bail out depositors in full. But what if the government itself needs a bailout, as Cyprus did?
All over the world, the public has a deep desire for their deposits to be riskless. Governments feed this desire by creating deposit insurance and by continually promoting public “confidence” in the banking system, whether or not such confidence is warranted. Yet deposits—and the guarantees that government makes to insure those deposits—fund loans and investments that are inherently risky, and subject to losses that are far greater than most bankers, governments or the public imagine.
The crises that result from banking losses are common, historically speaking, not rare. The losses occur notably in financing real estate and also in financing governments, as they did in Cyprus—or Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal.
The International Monetary Fund has tracked 147 banking crises since 1970. Around the world there have been more than 250 defaults on government debt since 1800, an average of about one sovereign default per year.
The U.S. has had two housing finance disasters in the past three decades alone, the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s and the subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2007.
Yet one peculiar characteristic of deposit guarantees in the U.S. is not as well known or appreciated as it should be—especially as federal debt reaches stratospheric levels. When Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933, the fathers of the Banking Act assured the public explicitly that the federal government, i.e., taxpayers, were not on the hook for losses to depositors.
“This is not a government guaranty of deposits,” said Carter Glass, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Henry Steagall, chairman of the House Banking Committee agreed. “I do not mean to be understood as favoring a government guaranty of bank deposits,” he said. “I do not. I have never favored such a plan.” Instead, banks were to insure their own deposits through contributions to an insurance fund.
Today, FDIC stickers in every bank in America proclaim “Each depositor insured to at least $250,000,” a promise “Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.” How this promise came to be—and if it is really a legally binding promise—is not generally understood.
The story goes back to the S&L Crisis of the 1980s when, thanks to lending long and borrowing short while interest rates soared, hundreds of savings and loan associations went under. The Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation—the U.S. government’s deposit insurance fund for the savings and loan industry—also became insolvent.
Congress did not want to legally guarantee deposits but did want people to have “confidence” that their deposits were safe. So it adopted a joint resolution in 1982 stating that it was the “sense of Congress” that insured deposits were backed by the credit of the United States.
This resolution was not legally binding, nor did it become legally binding when, as the S&L problems grew worse, Congress passed the Competitive Equality Banking Act of 1987, which included these oddly phrased words: “it is the sense of the Congress that it should reaffirm that deposits up to the statutorily prescribed amount in federally insured depository institutions are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.”
Next, in 1989, came the taxpayer bailout of FSLIC. Congress wrote into the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of that year the requirement that every savings bank must “display at each place of business a sign” saying that “insured deposits are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government.” As the housing bubble was inflating in 2005, Congress amended the Federal Deposit Insurance Act to require all banks to display this statement, as they now do.
And yet, window stickers notwithstanding, Congress apparently has never enacted a provision in a law simply stating that insured deposits are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the government—at least I have diligently searched for it, including asking the FDIC for such a statutory citation, without success.
Nonetheless, the government—and not just a bank insurance fund—has gotten itself firmly on the hook for the risk of most deposits. It has not thereby made the risk of these deposits disappear—that is impossible—but merely moved it to the taxpayers.
Mr. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago from 1991-2004.
What does it mean to be ‘Backed by the full faith and credit’ of the U.S.?
May 28, 2013, 6:53 p.m. ET
By ALEX J. POLLOCK
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323744604578472770934666526.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
The banking and government-debt crisis in Cyprus has focused everyone’s attention on the fact that it is possible for bank depositors to take losses on their deposits. This has surprised many people, who assumed that governments will always bail out depositors in full. But what if the government itself needs a bailout, as Cyprus did?
All over the world, the public has a deep desire for their deposits to be riskless. Governments feed this desire by creating deposit insurance and by continually promoting public “confidence” in the banking system, whether or not such confidence is warranted. Yet deposits—and the guarantees that government makes to insure those deposits—fund loans and investments that are inherently risky, and subject to losses that are far greater than most bankers, governments or the public imagine.
The crises that result from banking losses are common, historically speaking, not rare. The losses occur notably in financing real estate and also in financing governments, as they did in Cyprus—or Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal.
The International Monetary Fund has tracked 147 banking crises since 1970. Around the world there have been more than 250 defaults on government debt since 1800, an average of about one sovereign default per year.
The U.S. has had two housing finance disasters in the past three decades alone, the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s and the subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2007.
Yet one peculiar characteristic of deposit guarantees in the U.S. is not as well known or appreciated as it should be—especially as federal debt reaches stratospheric levels. When Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933, the fathers of the Banking Act assured the public explicitly that the federal government, i.e., taxpayers, were not on the hook for losses to depositors.
“This is not a government guaranty of deposits,” said Carter Glass, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Henry Steagall, chairman of the House Banking Committee agreed. “I do not mean to be understood as favoring a government guaranty of bank deposits,” he said. “I do not. I have never favored such a plan.” Instead, banks were to insure their own deposits through contributions to an insurance fund.
Today, FDIC stickers in every bank in America proclaim “Each depositor insured to at least $250,000,” a promise “Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.” How this promise came to be—and if it is really a legally binding promise—is not generally understood.
The story goes back to the S&L Crisis of the 1980s when, thanks to lending long and borrowing short while interest rates soared, hundreds of savings and loan associations went under. The Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation—the U.S. government’s deposit insurance fund for the savings and loan industry—also became insolvent.
Congress did not want to legally guarantee deposits but did want people to have “confidence” that their deposits were safe. So it adopted a joint resolution in 1982 stating that it was the “sense of Congress” that insured deposits were backed by the credit of the United States.
This resolution was not legally binding, nor did it become legally binding when, as the S&L problems grew worse, Congress passed the Competitive Equality Banking Act of 1987, which included these oddly phrased words: “it is the sense of the Congress that it should reaffirm that deposits up to the statutorily prescribed amount in federally insured depository institutions are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.”
Next, in 1989, came the taxpayer bailout of FSLIC. Congress wrote into the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of that year the requirement that every savings bank must “display at each place of business a sign” saying that “insured deposits are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government.” As the housing bubble was inflating in 2005, Congress amended the Federal Deposit Insurance Act to require all banks to display this statement, as they now do.
And yet, window stickers notwithstanding, Congress apparently has never enacted a provision in a law simply stating that insured deposits are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the government—at least I have diligently searched for it, including asking the FDIC for such a statutory citation, without success.
Nonetheless, the government—and not just a bank insurance fund—has gotten itself firmly on the hook for the risk of most deposits. It has not thereby made the risk of these deposits disappear—that is impossible—but merely moved it to the taxpayers.
Mr. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago from 1991-2004.
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Comunidade de Traders / Where's the bubble?
« em: 2013-05-27 11:30:53 »
Artigo interessante do Incognitus no Seeking Alpha: Where Is The Bubble?
Na minha opinião, faltaram duas imagens para o ilustrar.
Na minha opinião, faltaram duas imagens para o ilustrar.
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Comunidade de Traders / The Probable Origin Of The Anadarko Singularity
« em: 2013-05-22 11:02:58 »
Excelente artigo, este do Incognitus no Seeking Alpha: The Probable Origin Of The Anadarko Singularity.
Todavia, não estou lá assim muito convencido com a segunda implicação final. Para evidenciar o problema, troco a ordem das implicações finais:
O único benefício que estou a ver é estimular a economia dos intermediários via pagamento de comissões até que chegue a vez de estares do lado recebedor e as transações serem anuladas [não estou a perceber porque é que quando chegar a tua vez vai ser diferente].
Todavia, não estou lá assim muito convencido com a segunda implicação final. Para evidenciar o problema, troco a ordem das implicações finais:
Citação de: Incognitus
- Second, it might pay to have distant limit buy orders set up in the markets to buy into quality names at a large discount should some of these flash crashes take place.
- First, being levered long in a single stock has acquired the risk of being bankrupted instantly even without negative news, though this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the NYSE has taken to canceling trades even when not erroneously made.
O único benefício que estou a ver é estimular a economia dos intermediários via pagamento de comissões até que chegue a vez de estares do lado recebedor e as transações serem anuladas [não estou a perceber porque é que quando chegar a tua vez vai ser diferente].
11
Comunidade de Traders / Why You Can't Plan for Retirement
« em: 2013-02-02 15:04:06 »
Why You Can't Plan for Retirement
By Doug
On December 11, 2007
http://dshort.com/articles/why-you-cant-plan-for-retirement.html
Does your brain recognize the retired you?
"Me first!"
"I've got shotgun!"
"Looking out for number one!"
These catch-phrases reveal two basic aspects of human nature: Our chronic self-absorption and our focus on the immediate. We spend most of our lives living for today with ourselves at the center.
But now science is beginning to reveal how this innate behavior threatens our retirement. Based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), researchers know that certain parts of our brain are more active when we're thinking about ourselves. However, a recent Forbes magazine article mentions some preliminary research at the Stanford Center on Longevity with stunning implications for retirement planning. "When people are asked to imagine themselves in retirement, the parts of their brains that usually 'light up' when they think about themselves don't light up at all. It's as if they were thinking about a stranger."
Mother Nature and our brains
My personal theory is that this blind spot about our future selves is a relic from our biological past. Primal humans lived in the perpetual present: "I need meat! My cave is warm! What's that noise? She looks fine!"
During the Stone Age, average life spans didn't extend beyond the child-rearing years, so there was no need to resonate with a future self. Our Neanderthal ancestors focused on food, shelter, danger, and reproduction. Retirement planning wasn't a priority.
Unfortunately, a 2007 survey shows that the same is true for many Baby Boomers. Over 61% have less than $150,000 in savings, and an astonishing 28% have less than $10,000. The Stanford fMRI research gives an intriguing explanation for these stats. People don't routinely give money to strangers, and that's how our brains perceive our elder selves -- as strangers. So why save for retirement?
Easy investing for the Boomers
Today we face a bewildering array of investment choices, but the first wave of Boomers had it much easier. Consider the Boomer households in 1976, 30 years after the onset of this demographic explosion. They loved their General Electric appliances and filled their cabinets with products from Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson). They stopped by the Exxon station (today's ExxonMobil on the way to McDonald's. Philip Morris' Marlboro Man (today's Altria Group) was fast becoming an icon for the world's most popular cigarette.
If stock picking was too daunting for our Boomer household, 1976 was the year Vanguard launched its S&P 500 index fund to track the market at large.
Unfortunately, as we now know, too few Boomers were willing to invest money for that distant stranger — the elder self.
Digital imagery to the rescue?
So how can we extend our sense of self beyond the present? The Stanford Center on Longevity has some fascinating clues. Hal Ersner-Hershfield, a graduate-student researcher at the center, is working with communications professor Jeremy Bailenson to devise strategies to help people identify with their older selves. Using computer technology, they can morph an image of you to approximate your appearance in old age. Their experiments with subjects who interacted with their digitally-aged selves have produced dramatic results. Following these interactions, the subjects were given $1,000 to spend or invest. Thus far 30 subjects have been tested. Ersner-Hershfield says that those who saw their aged personas allocated twice as much to retirement in comparison to a control group who interacted with their unaltered selves. Here is a summary of their findings.
By Doug
On December 11, 2007
http://dshort.com/articles/why-you-cant-plan-for-retirement.html
Does your brain recognize the retired you?
"Me first!"
"I've got shotgun!"
"Looking out for number one!"
These catch-phrases reveal two basic aspects of human nature: Our chronic self-absorption and our focus on the immediate. We spend most of our lives living for today with ourselves at the center.
But now science is beginning to reveal how this innate behavior threatens our retirement. Based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), researchers know that certain parts of our brain are more active when we're thinking about ourselves. However, a recent Forbes magazine article mentions some preliminary research at the Stanford Center on Longevity with stunning implications for retirement planning. "When people are asked to imagine themselves in retirement, the parts of their brains that usually 'light up' when they think about themselves don't light up at all. It's as if they were thinking about a stranger."
Mother Nature and our brains
My personal theory is that this blind spot about our future selves is a relic from our biological past. Primal humans lived in the perpetual present: "I need meat! My cave is warm! What's that noise? She looks fine!"
During the Stone Age, average life spans didn't extend beyond the child-rearing years, so there was no need to resonate with a future self. Our Neanderthal ancestors focused on food, shelter, danger, and reproduction. Retirement planning wasn't a priority.
Unfortunately, a 2007 survey shows that the same is true for many Baby Boomers. Over 61% have less than $150,000 in savings, and an astonishing 28% have less than $10,000. The Stanford fMRI research gives an intriguing explanation for these stats. People don't routinely give money to strangers, and that's how our brains perceive our elder selves -- as strangers. So why save for retirement?
Easy investing for the Boomers
Today we face a bewildering array of investment choices, but the first wave of Boomers had it much easier. Consider the Boomer households in 1976, 30 years after the onset of this demographic explosion. They loved their General Electric appliances and filled their cabinets with products from Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson). They stopped by the Exxon station (today's ExxonMobil on the way to McDonald's. Philip Morris' Marlboro Man (today's Altria Group) was fast becoming an icon for the world's most popular cigarette.
If stock picking was too daunting for our Boomer household, 1976 was the year Vanguard launched its S&P 500 index fund to track the market at large.
Unfortunately, as we now know, too few Boomers were willing to invest money for that distant stranger — the elder self.
Digital imagery to the rescue?
So how can we extend our sense of self beyond the present? The Stanford Center on Longevity has some fascinating clues. Hal Ersner-Hershfield, a graduate-student researcher at the center, is working with communications professor Jeremy Bailenson to devise strategies to help people identify with their older selves. Using computer technology, they can morph an image of you to approximate your appearance in old age. Their experiments with subjects who interacted with their digitally-aged selves have produced dramatic results. Following these interactions, the subjects were given $1,000 to spend or invest. Thus far 30 subjects have been tested. Ersner-Hershfield says that those who saw their aged personas allocated twice as much to retirement in comparison to a control group who interacted with their unaltered selves. Here is a summary of their findings.
12
Off-Topic / Extremely Rare Color Photography of Early 1900s Paris
« em: 2013-01-29 11:17:52 »
Página interessante com fotos a cores a mostrar como era Paris no início do séc. XX:
http://curiouseggs.com/extremely-rare-color-photography-of-early-1900s-paris/
http://curiouseggs.com/extremely-rare-color-photography-of-early-1900s-paris/
13
Comunidade de Traders / Fusão fria
« em: 2013-01-04 11:48:43 »
Crio este tópico para ir colocando aqui notícias assunto e ir acompanhando o que daqui realmente sai.
14
Off-Topic / Comet '15 times brighter than the moon' to be visible from Britain
« em: 2013-01-03 18:04:44 »
Comet '15 times brighter than the moon' to be visible from Britain
By Gregory Walton
5:00PM GMT 27 Dec 2012
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9767950/Comet-15-times-brighter-than-the-moon-to-be-visible-from-Britain.html
A comet fifteen times brighter than a full Moon could be visible from Britain in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, astronomers have predicted.
The comet, named Ison, is expected to be so "spectacularly bright" that it will be visible to the naked eye in daylight next year.
It is predicted to end a year of "celestial treats" for 2013, with other comets also coming within visible range of the Earth.
Comet Ison was discovered accidentally in September this year by astronomers Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok, who had planned to use a high-powered telescope to probe the far reaches of the Gemini and Cancer constellations.
Instead, they stumbled upon what could be one of the biggest astronomical events of the decade; a comet so bright that it will likely be visible to the naked eye in daylight.
In the coming year, the ‘2014 L4’ comet will also be seen from Earth in the spring.
Experts say there is a "very, very good chance" that Ison, known as a ‘sun-grazer’ because it will orbit so close to the sun, will be visible to Britain’s many amateur astronomers.
“I would be very surprised if both comets don’t become visible in the UK,” said Professor Mark Bailey, Director of the Armagh Observatory.
Amateur astronomers will have the best chance of seeing Ison in November and December, leading scientists to colloquially call it the 'Christmas Day Comet’.
“Because it goes very close to the Sun it is thought that it will be spectacularly bright," said Professor Bailey. "As it moves away from the Sun it is thought that it will develop a very spectacular tail.”
Experts say that the comet has taken millions of years to reach our solar system from the Oort cloud which is over a light year away from earth. It is due to come to life in October next year, say experts.
As it passes close to Mars, the comet’s surface will morph as ice reacts to shifting temperatures, causing large cracks to appear and huge plumes of gas to be expelled.
In this case it would become visible to the naked eye as early as November, its newly formed tail stretching far into the sky above the horizon.
Scientists liken the composition of comets to ‘dirty ice-balls’.
“Imagine rolling an ice-ball in your driveway – it’s in that way that the nucleus of a comet is made up, with all the pebbles and dust mixed in,” said Professor Bailey.
“We’re in for real celestial treats next year which will surely inspire people’s interest in astronomy.”
By Gregory Walton
5:00PM GMT 27 Dec 2012
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9767950/Comet-15-times-brighter-than-the-moon-to-be-visible-from-Britain.html
A comet fifteen times brighter than a full Moon could be visible from Britain in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, astronomers have predicted.
The comet, named Ison, is expected to be so "spectacularly bright" that it will be visible to the naked eye in daylight next year.
It is predicted to end a year of "celestial treats" for 2013, with other comets also coming within visible range of the Earth.
Comet Ison was discovered accidentally in September this year by astronomers Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok, who had planned to use a high-powered telescope to probe the far reaches of the Gemini and Cancer constellations.
Instead, they stumbled upon what could be one of the biggest astronomical events of the decade; a comet so bright that it will likely be visible to the naked eye in daylight.
In the coming year, the ‘2014 L4’ comet will also be seen from Earth in the spring.
Experts say there is a "very, very good chance" that Ison, known as a ‘sun-grazer’ because it will orbit so close to the sun, will be visible to Britain’s many amateur astronomers.
“I would be very surprised if both comets don’t become visible in the UK,” said Professor Mark Bailey, Director of the Armagh Observatory.
Amateur astronomers will have the best chance of seeing Ison in November and December, leading scientists to colloquially call it the 'Christmas Day Comet’.
“Because it goes very close to the Sun it is thought that it will be spectacularly bright," said Professor Bailey. "As it moves away from the Sun it is thought that it will develop a very spectacular tail.”
Experts say that the comet has taken millions of years to reach our solar system from the Oort cloud which is over a light year away from earth. It is due to come to life in October next year, say experts.
As it passes close to Mars, the comet’s surface will morph as ice reacts to shifting temperatures, causing large cracks to appear and huge plumes of gas to be expelled.
In this case it would become visible to the naked eye as early as November, its newly formed tail stretching far into the sky above the horizon.
Scientists liken the composition of comets to ‘dirty ice-balls’.
“Imagine rolling an ice-ball in your driveway – it’s in that way that the nucleus of a comet is made up, with all the pebbles and dust mixed in,” said Professor Bailey.
“We’re in for real celestial treats next year which will surely inspire people’s interest in astronomy.”
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Comunidade de Traders / O Outono árabe
« em: 2012-12-30 22:41:35 »
Parece que o Outono árabe chegou cedo ao Egipto:
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Egypt Imposes New Cash Controls At Border
by Jon Matonis
on 12/27/2012 @ 9:13AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/27/egypt-imposes-new-cash-controls-at-border/
Currency controls are now in place and there is a ban on traveling with more than $10,000 in cash. Egyptian officials are becoming worried as savings account withdrawals increase in the face of a depreciating pound and public rumors of central bank confiscation of deposits.
On Tuesday, Presidential spokesperson Yasser Ali confirmed the government’s decision which limits all travelers from “bringing foreign currency into the country or carrying it out to only $10,000.” Ali added that “any funds over US$10,000 must be transferred electronically” and the decision also forbids sending cash through the mail.
Previously under the original law, any amounts above $10,000 or their equivalent in foreign currencies simply had to be declared to authorities.
With foreign investors and tourists holding back now, the post-revolutionary Egyptian government of Mohamed Morsi is finding it difficult to maintain control over its finances and budget deficit. As a result, Egyptian officials have delayed the high-level talks that are necessary to secure a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
New thinking at the International Monetary Fund now accepts that capital controls are sometimes necessary to prevent destabilizing capital flows. It is not clear from the IMF Survey if this new view would apply to the control of outflows from Egypt which has seen its foreign currency reserves fall from $36 billion in 2010 to $15 billion today dangerously close to the IMF’s recommended coverage of three month’s of imports. Estimates put hard currency reserves at just about $4 billion.
After visiting one exchange office that had run out of dollars, Cairo resident Mahmoud Kamel said, “I want to exchange money because I’m afraid the Egyptian pound will not have any value soon.”
Furthermore, due to the cumulative limit of $100,000 in effect from nearly two years ago, many wealthier Egyptians have maxed out and are unable to send money abroad.
The Central Bank of Egypt said Tuesday that the Egyptian pound was trading at 6.20 per U.S. dollar compared to 6.00 during the first half of the year. Without necessary currency reserves to fund imports, it is likely that the pound will fall in value sharply.
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Comunidade de Traders / Evolução dos mercados
« em: 2012-12-02 18:02:39 »
Há algum tempo atrás foi colocado no fórum principal um gráfico com a evolução dos índices bolsistas durante o 1º ano em que foi pedido o bail out. O gráfico continha Portugal, Grécia e Irlanda.
Sabem em que mensagem ou onde está esse gráfico?
Sabem em que mensagem ou onde está esse gráfico?
17
Comunidade de Traders / Trying to save money? Ask for crisp new bills at the bank
« em: 2012-11-17 22:01:55 »
Estudo engraçado, mas não sei se o que estão a medir é a propenção para a poupança, ou um efeito de substituição.
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Trying to save money? Ask for crisp new bills at the bank
November 13, 2012
http://phys.org/news/2012-11-money-crisp-bills-bank.html
Consumers will spend more to get rid of worn bills because they evoke feelings of disgust but are more likely to hold on to crisp new currency, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research. "The physical appearance of money can alter spending behavior. Consumers tend to infer that worn bills are used and contaminated, whereas crisp bills give them a sense of pride in owning bills that can be spent around others," write authors Fabrizio Di Muro (University of Winnipeg) and Theodore J. Noseworthy (University of Guelph).
Does the physical appearance of money matter more than we think? Money is said to be interchangeable. If we lend someone a $20 bill, it shouldn't matter if they pay us back with the same $20 bill or a different one. This is why diamonds, real estate, and art are not suitable as currency. But money may not be as interchangeable as consumers think.
In several studies, consumers were given either crisp or worn bills, and asked to complete a series of tasks related to shopping. Consumers tended to spend more with worn bills than with crisp bills. They were also more likely to break a worn larger bill than pay the exact amount in crisp lower denominations.
However, when consumers thought they were being socially monitored, they tended to spend crisp bills more than worn bills. When testing the well-known finding that people spend more when given the equivalent amount in lower denominations (four $5 bills) than when holding a large single denomination (a $20 bill), the authors found that the physical appearance of money can enhance, attenuate, or even reverse this effect.
"Money may be as much a vehicle for social utility as it is for economic utility. We tend to regard currency as a means to consumption and not as a product itself, but money is actually subject to the same inferences and biases as the products it can buy," the authors conclude.
More information: Fabrizio Di Muro and Theodore J. Noseworthy. "Money Isn't Everything, but It Helps If It Doesn't Look Used: How the Physical Appearance of Money Influences Spending." Journal of Consumer Research: April 2013.
Journal reference: Journal of Consumer Research search
Provided by University of Chicago.
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Comunidade de Traders / Long-term interest rate
« em: 2012-11-07 13:10:18 »
Assumindo que um banco central não faz trocas de maturidade, que mecanismos explicam que descendo as taxas de juro de curto prazo as de longo prazo venham atrás?
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Comunidade de Traders / O país da (hiper)inflação nascente
« em: 2012-11-06 11:30:03 »
While Nobody Was Paying Attention, The Bank Of Japan Took A Surprise Step That Could Change The Future Of Central Banks
by: Joe Weisenthal
Nov. 4, 2012, 7:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/zervos-on-boj-decision-losing-independence-2012-11
Over the past few weeks, there's been a growing buzz about central banks playing a greater role in explicitly serving as funders of government.
The idea that people (journalists and Wall Streeters, mostly) have been talking about is the notion that central banks could buy government debt (as they do in quantitative easing) but then just rip up those bonds, and cancel the debt, with few consequences, except perhaps some inflation (which central banks wants, anyway).
This kind of blatant monetization seems unlikely (especially in countries like the UK and the US, which are borrowing at super-low rates) but the idea of central banks working more closely with their government to stimulate the economy may be on the road to happening.
While the US was distracted by all of the Sandy and election news this week, the Bank of Japan took a shocking step in this direction, according to David Zervos of Jefferies, who notes that the latest easing announcement was a joint production between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, amove that never happens:
Zervos was far from the only analyst to notice the big news.
FT Alphaville has a good note from Bank of New York-Mellon’s Neil Mellor, who writes:
So it's possible that this presages a change in central bank policy around the world, but it's worth noting the idea that it's pressure from the Ministry of Finance that's pushing the BoJ to act, whereas in the US, the current winds prevail in the opposite direction, towards less easing.
Still, for a country that's been mired in deflation, it will be fascinating to watch whether there's any beneficial impact from this kind joint Ministry Of Finance/BoJ action.
by: Joe Weisenthal
Nov. 4, 2012, 7:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/zervos-on-boj-decision-losing-independence-2012-11
Over the past few weeks, there's been a growing buzz about central banks playing a greater role in explicitly serving as funders of government.
The idea that people (journalists and Wall Streeters, mostly) have been talking about is the notion that central banks could buy government debt (as they do in quantitative easing) but then just rip up those bonds, and cancel the debt, with few consequences, except perhaps some inflation (which central banks wants, anyway).
This kind of blatant monetization seems unlikely (especially in countries like the UK and the US, which are borrowing at super-low rates) but the idea of central banks working more closely with their government to stimulate the economy may be on the road to happening.
While the US was distracted by all of the Sandy and election news this week, the Bank of Japan took a shocking step in this direction, according to David Zervos of Jefferies, who notes that the latest easing announcement was a joint production between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, amove that never happens:
Citar
BoJ policies, by virtually any measure, have been an abject failure. The institution has consistently remained too tight in the face of worsening economic conditions for over 2 decades. And while the economy has had to pay a horrible price for these errors, the tables look like they are about to turn in a nasty way on the institution itself.
Accompanying the depressing standard BoJ statement on 30-Oct was this very curious additional release - http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2012/k121030b.pdf. Here we have the BoJ governor, the Minister of Finance and the Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy jointly issuing a press release on the BoJ website entitled - "Measures Aimed at Overcoming Deflation". A press release of this kind is completely unprecedented. And it was published in the "Monetary Policy Releases" section of the BoJ website.
So here we have two executive branch government ministers issuing declarations on the monetary policy portion of the BoJ website regarding price stability. Can anyone imagine if Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Hillary Clinton were to issue a joint statement on fighting deflation that was in turn prominently displayed under in the monetary policy section of the Fed's website? It would be mutiny!
The executive branch politicians in Japan have, for the first time ever, infiltrated the mother ship. BoJ independence is now under explicit political attack. This should be a warning to all central bankers with "sound money" religion - if you don't let the inflation dogs out and crank up the printing presses as the economy deteriorates, the politicians will come and shut you down. What we are witnessing is the beginning of the end for independent Japanese monetary policy.
Zervos was far from the only analyst to notice the big news.
FT Alphaville has a good note from Bank of New York-Mellon’s Neil Mellor, who writes:
Citar
Japan’s failure to emerge from its deflationary mire has been both a tragedy and testament to the hazards of asset price booms; but it has also encouraged an entertaining verbal interplay between successive governments (yearning a constant drip of palliative policy easing) and central bank (keen to enforce its own independence.) The interplay, at MOF’s instigation, has ranged from mild insinuation (per the need for more policy easing) to outright threats to the Bank’s independence; but today’s policy decision perhaps shows that the BOJ board’s current incumbents are keen to keep the peace.
...
The question that inevitably arises in the wake of today’s asset-purchase top-up therefore is to what extent government pressure, and the presence of economy minister Maehara, influenced the decision? In view of the unwavering emphasis that Shirakawa has placed upon reform (as recently as last week in fact) and upon the impotence of monetary easing in its absence, it is very difficult to believe that politics was not a factor. Yet if keeping the peace was an element in today’s decision, then Maehara and co may be forgiven for looking to leverage this ‘susceptibility’ between here and the as yet undeclared date for the next general election. Indeed, note that when Seiji Maehara emerged from today’s meeting, he said, “We have confirmed that we will make the utmost efforts to achieve the common goal with a strong sense of responsibility.” ‘Will’, ‘common goal’, ‘strong sense of responsibility’? The BOJ’s next meeting on November 19th and its aftermath could well be very interesting.
So it's possible that this presages a change in central bank policy around the world, but it's worth noting the idea that it's pressure from the Ministry of Finance that's pushing the BoJ to act, whereas in the US, the current winds prevail in the opposite direction, towards less easing.
Still, for a country that's been mired in deflation, it will be fascinating to watch whether there's any beneficial impact from this kind joint Ministry Of Finance/BoJ action.
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Comunidade de Traders / Some definitions
« em: 2012-11-01 15:58:21 »Citação de: John Stossel
'Need' now means wanting someone else's money. 'Greed' means wanting to keep your own. 'Compassion' is when a politician arranges the transfer.
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