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Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2040 em: 2024-02-25 19:53:01 »
Ainda acerca do famigerado "Climate change":


«Trillions Spent On 'Climate Change' Based On Faulty Temperature Data, Climate Experts Say

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by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Jan 31, 2024 - 04:55 PM


Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),


To preserve a “livable planet,” the Earth can’t warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the United Nations warns.
(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

Failure to maintain that level could lead to several catastrophes, including increased droughts and weather-related disasters, more heat-related illnesses and deaths, and less food and more poverty, according to NASA.

To avert the looming tribulations and limit global temperature increases, 194 member states and the European Union in 2016 signed the U.N. Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty with a goal to “substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.”

After the agreement, global spending on climate-related projects increased exponentially.

In 2021 and 2022, the world’s taxpayers spent, on average, $1.3 trillion on such projects each year, according to the nonprofit advisory group Climate Policy Initiative.

That’s more than double the spending rate in 2019 and 2020, which came in at $653 billion per year, and it’s significantly up from the $364 billion per year in 2011 and 2012, the report found.

Despite the money pouring in, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 2023 was the hottest year on record.

NOAA’s climate monitoring stations found that the Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 1.35 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

“Not only was 2023 the warmest year in NOAA’s 174-year climate record—it was the warmest by far,” said Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist.

“A warming planet means we need to be prepared for the impacts of climate change that are happening here and now, like extreme weather events that become both more frequent and severe.”

But a growing chorus of climate scientists are saying the temperature readings are faulty and that the trillions of dollars pouring in are based on a problem that doesn’t exist.

More than 90 percent of NOAA’s temperature monitoring stations have a heat bias, according to Anthony Watts, a meteorologist, senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute, author of climate website Watts Up With That, and director of a study that examined NOAA’s climate stations.

“And with that large of a number, over 90 percent, the methods that NOAA employs to try to reduce this don’t work because the bias is so overwhelming,” Mr. Watts told The Epoch Times.

“The few stations that are left that are not biased because they are, for example, outside of town in a field and are an agricultural research station that’s been around for 100 years ... their data gets completely swamped by the much larger set of biased data. There’s no way you can adjust that out.”
A meteorologist monitors weather in NOAA's center for weather and climate prediction in Riverdale, Md., on July 2, 2013. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

Meteorologist Roy Spencer agreed.

“The surface thermometer data still have spurious warming effects due to the urban heat island, which increases over time,” Mr. Spencer said.

He is the principal research scientist at the University of Alabama, the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA’s Aqua satellite, and the recipient of NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for his work with satellite-based temperature monitoring.

Mr. Spencer also said computerized climate models used to drive changes in energy policy are even more faulty.

Lt. Col. John Shewchuk, a certified consulting meteorologist, said the problems with temperature readings go beyond heat bias. The retired lieutenant colonel was an advanced weather officer in the Air Force.

“After seeing many reports about NOAA’s adjustments to the USHCN [U.S. Historical Climatology Network] temperature data, I decided to download and analyze the data myself,” Lt. Col. Shewchuk told The Epoch Times.

“I was able to confirm what others have found. It is obvious that, overall, the past temperatures were cooled while the present temperatures were warmed.”

He contends that NOAA and NASA have adjusted historical temperature data in such a way as to make the past appear colder and, by so doing, make the current warming trend more pronounced.
Faulty Temperature Readings

The urban heat island effect causes higher temperatures in areas where there are more buildings, roads, and other forms of infrastructure that absorb and then radiate the sun’s heat, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

The agency estimates that “daytime temperatures in urban areas are 1–7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than temperatures in outlying areas, and nighttime temperatures are about 2–5 degrees Fahrenheit higher.”

Consequently, NOAA requires all its climate observation stations to be located at least 100 feet away from elements such as concrete, asphalt, and buildings.
Students of the University of Illinois carry a weather station during a NOAA education day on tornadoes, in Memphis on Feb. 8, 2023. (Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images)

However, in March 2009, Mr. Watts released a report that shows that 89 percent of NOAA’s stations had heat bias issues due to being located within 100 feet of those elements, and many were located by airport runways.

“We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat,” Mr. Watts said.

“We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.”

The report concluded that the U.S. temperature record was unreliable, and because it was considered “the best in the world,” global temperature databases were also “compromised and unreliable.”

Following the report, the U.S. Office of Inspector General (OIG) and the Government Accountability Office confirmed Mr. Watt’s findings and stated that NOAA was taking steps to address the issues.

“NOAA acknowledges that there are problems with the USHCN data due to biases introduced by such means as undocumented site relocation, poor siting, or instrument changes,” the OIG report reads.

“All of the experts thought that an improved, modernized climate reporting system is necessary to eliminate the need for data adjustments.”

Despite the assurances, Mr. Watts had doubts about NOAA addressing the issues and in April 2022 and May 2022, he and his team revisited many of the same temperature stations they had observed in 2009.

He published his findings in a new study on July 27, 2022. It found that even more, approximately 96 percent, of NOAA’s temperature stations still failed to meet its own standards.

“There are two main biases in the surface temperature network for the United States, and most likely the world, that I have identified,” Mr. Watts said.

“The biggest bias is the urban heat island effect. What happens is that because heat is retained by the surfaces and released into the air at night, the night’s low temperature is not as low as it could be if the thermometer were outside of town and in a field.”
Global average surface temperatures have been variable, but show an increasing trend in recent decades. (Illustration by The Epoch Times)

Over the years, he said, more and more infrastructure has been built up around the thermometer locations, and at night, the asphalt and concrete release the absorbed heat and push up the temperature.

“You can look at any set of climate data, no matter who produces it, and you can see this effect. The low temperatures are trending upward much faster, and the high temperatures are virtually unchanged. But it’s the average temperature that’s being used to track climate change,” Mr. Watts said.

He said that even though both NOAA and NASA claim that they can adjust their data to account for the urban heat island effect, the bias is impossible to overcome because the problem impacts 96 percent of surface stations.

He said the few thermometers located at climate stations not experiencing a heat bias show half the rate of warming currently being reported.
Transient Temperature

The second primary bias that Mr. Watts identified is the transient temperature readings, which are short-term temperature changes that can give a false reading.

NOAA started switching out their mercury thermometers in the mid-to-late 1980s, according to Mr. Watts.

Read the rest here...»


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trillions-spent-climate-change-based-faulty-temperature-data-climate-experts-say
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Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2041 em: 2024-02-29 02:06:54 »
A electrificação não parece estar a avançar a todo o vapor...    :-\


«“Electric vehicles (EVs) are pilling up on lots across the country as the green

revolution hits a speed bump, data show.” USA Today, November 14, 2023
“Hertz Global Holdings announced Thursday it planned to cut one-third of its
global EV fleet over the year. Following the announcement, Hertz CEO Stephen
Scherr suggested the road to electrification could be bumpier than anticipated.”

Bloomberg, January 11, 2024»


(in Goehring & Rozencwajg, Natural Resource Market Commentary, Fourth Quarter 2023, February 23rd, 2024: 1)
« Última modificação: 2024-02-29 02:08:51 por Kaspov »
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2042 em: 2024-03-03 16:51:42 »
«'Very Bizarre': Scientists Expose Major Problems With Climate Change Data

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by Tyler Durden

Sunday, Mar 03, 2024 - 01:10 PM


Authored by Alex Newman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),


Temperature records used by climate scientists and governments to build models that then forecast dangerous manmade global warming repercussions have serious problems and even corruption in the data, multiple scientists who have published recent studies on the issue told The Epoch Times.
(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

The Biden administration leans on its latest National Climate Assessment report as evidence that global warming is accelerating because of human activities. The document states that human emissions of “greenhouse gases” such as carbon dioxide are dangerously warming the Earth.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) holds the same view, and its leaders are pushing major global policy changes in response.

But scientific experts from around the world in a variety of fields are pushing back. In peer-reviewed studies, they cite a wide range of flaws with the global temperature data used to reach the dire conclusions; they say it’s time to reexamine the whole narrative.

Problems with temperature data include a lack of geographically and historically representative data, contamination of the records by heat from urban areas, and corruption of the data introduced by a process known as “homogenization.”

The flaws are so significant that they make the temperature data—and the models based on it—essentially useless or worse, three independent scientists with the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES) explained.

The experts said that when data corruption is considered, the alleged “climate crisis” supposedly caused by human activities disappears.

Instead, natural climate variability offers a much better explanation for what is being observed, they said.

Some experts told The Epoch Times that deliberate fraud appeared to be at work, while others suggested more innocent explanations.

But regardless of why the problems exist, the implications of the findings are hard to overstate.

With no climate crisis, the justification for trillions of dollars in government spending and costly changes in public policy to restrict carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions collapses, the scientists explained in a series of interviews about their research.

“For the last 35 years, the words of the IPCC have been taken to be gospel,” according to astrophysicist and CERES founder Willie Soon. Until recently, he was a researcher working with the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian.

“And indeed, climate activism has become the new religion of the 21st century—heretics are not welcome and not allowed to ask questions,” Mr. Soon told The Epoch Times.
Dancers working with Mothers Rise Up (a group of UK mothers protesting about climate change) prepare to hold a performance protest outside Lloyds of London in London on Feb. 26, 2024. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

“But good science demands that scientists are encouraged to question the IPCC’s dogma. The supposed purity of the global temperature record is one of the most sacred dogmas of the IPCC.”

The latest U.S. government National Climate Assessment report states: “Human activities are changing the climate.

“The evidence for warming across multiple aspects of the Earth system is incontrovertible, and the science is unequivocal that increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving many observed trends and changes.”

In particular, according to the report, this is because of human activities such as burning fossil fuels for transportation, energy, and agriculture.

Looking at timescales highlights major problems with this narrative, Mr. Soon said.

“When people ask about global warming or climate change, it is essential to ask, ‘Since when?’ The data shows that it has warmed since the 1970s, but that this followed a period of cooling from the 1940s,” he said.

While it is “definitely warmer” now than in the 19th century, Mr. Soon said that temperature proxy data show the 19th century “was exceptionally cold.”

“It was the end of a period that’s known as the Little Ice Age,” he said.

Data taken from rural temperature stations, ocean measurements, weather balloons, satellite measurements, and temperature proxies such as tree rings, glaciers, and lake sediments, “show that the climate has always changed,” Mr. Soon said.

“They show that the current climate outside of cities is not unusual,” he said, adding that heat from urban areas is improperly affecting the data.

“If we exclude the urban temperature data that only represents 3 percent of the planet, then we get a very different picture of the climate.”
A meteorologist launches a weather balloon measuring the zero degree isotherm at MeteoSwiss station in Payerne, Switzerland, on Sept. 7, 2023. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)
Homogenization

One issue that scientists say is corrupting the data stems from an obscure process known as “homogenization.”

According to climate scientists working with governments and the U.N., the algorithms used for homogenization are designed to correct, as much as possible, various biases that might exist in the raw temperature data.

These biases include, among others, the relocation of temperature monitoring stations, changes in technology used to gather the data, or changes in the environment surrounding a thermometer that might impact its readings.

For instance, if a temperature station was originally placed in an empty field but that field has since been paved over to become a parking lot, the record would appear to show much hotter temperatures. As such, it would make sense to try to correct the data collected.

Virtually nobody argues against the need for some homogenization to control for various factors that may contaminate temperature data.

But a closer examination of the process as it now occurs reveals major concerns, Ronan Connolly, an independent scientist at CERES, said.

“While the scientific community has become addicted to blindly using these computer programs to fix the data biases, until recently nobody has bothered to look under the hood to see if the programs work when applied to real temperature data,” he told The Epoch Times.

Since the early 2000s, various governmental and intergovernmental organizations creating global temperature records have relied on computer programs to automatically adjust the data.

Mr. Soon, Mr. Connolly, and a team of scientists around the world spent years looking at the programs to determine how they worked and whether they were reliable.

One of the scientists involved in the analysis, Peter O’Neill, has been tracking and downloading the data daily from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its Global Historical Climatology Network since 2011.

He found that each day, NOAA applies different adjustments to the data.

(Top left) A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather tower atop a building in Washington. (Top right) A radar is prepared by NOAA for studying tornadoes, in Memphis. (Bottom) A man works as officials are briefed at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images, Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images, Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)

“They use the same homogenization computer program and re-run it roughly every 24 hours,” Mr. Connolly said. “But each day, the homogenization adjustments that they calculate for each temperature record are different.”

This is “very bizarre,” he said.

“If the adjustments for a given weather station have any basis in reality, then we would expect the computer program to calculate the same adjustments every time. What we found is this is not what’s happening,” Mr. Connolly said.

These concerns are what first sparked the international investigation into the issue by Mr. Soon and his colleagues.

Because NOAA doesn’t maintain historical information on its weather stations, the CERES scientists reached out to European scientists who had been compiling the data for the stations that they oversee.

They found that just 17 percent of NOAA’s adjustments were consistently applied. And less than 20 percent of NOAA’s adjustments were clearly associated with a documented change to the station observations.

“When we looked under the hood, we found that there was a hamster running in a wheel instead of an engine,” Mr. Connolly said. “It seems that with these homogenization programs, it is a case where the cure is worse than the disease.”

A spokesman for NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information downplayed the significance, but said the agency was working to address the issues raised in the papers.

“NOAA uses the well-documented Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm every day on GHCNm (monthly)—version 4, and the results of specific adjustments to individual station series can differ from run to run,” the spokesman said, adding that the papers in question didn’t support the view that the concerns about the homogenization of the data made it useless or worse.

“NOAA is addressing the issues raised in both these papers in a future release of the GHCNm temperature dataset and its accompanying documentation.”

Read more here...»


https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/very-bizarre-scientists-expose-major-problems-climate-change-data
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Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2043 em: 2024-03-04 00:56:41 »
Exactamente!!   :D


«Never in history has a less efficient “prime mover” displaced a more efficient one. We believe this time will be no different. While governments may try to coerce drivers into buying EVs or even ban ICE altogether, these policies will ultimately fail as consumers insist on keeping their more efficient vehicles. A new battery breakthrough would help make EVs more energy efficient, and we are studying the space very closely. In particular, we are impressed with the work being done by the team at PureLithium, in which we have made a small private investment. However, we cannot identify any battery technology that would materially change this analysis. Until then, we expect internal combustion engines will continue to dominate, and EV penetration will disappoint.»

(Goehring & Rozencwajg, Natural Resource Market Commentary, Fourth Quarter 2023, February 23rd, 2024: 6)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2044 em: 2024-03-07 19:28:23 »
A UE sempre a pensar em novos impostos...   :(


«The EU Wants Fossil Fuel Firms To Contribute To Climate Fund

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by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Mar 07, 2024 - 08:30 AM


Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Oil and gas companies could be a source of additional funding for a UN climate financing to help developing economies cope with the consequences of climate change, according to a draft EU document seen by Reuters.

After failing so far to establish a clear-cut framework of how much wealthy developed nations should contribute to a fund to help developing economies, the next COP summit in Azerbaijan at the end of this year is seen as the deadline for reaching some kind of a deal.   

The COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, is expected to decide in November if the climate finance goal should include only public funding, or raise funds from the private sector and international institutions, too. 

The EU, which aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, is looking at the fossil fuels sector for potential additional contributions to these funds.

    “Recognising that public finance alone cannot provide the quantum necessary for the new goal, additional, new and innovative sources of finance from a wide variety of sources, including from the fossil fuel sector, should be identified and utilised,” according to the draft EU statement which Reuters has seen and which has been prepared for a meeting of the foreign ministers of the bloc later in March. 

Developed economies need to provide at least $1 trillion per year to climate finance for developing countries to meet the national and global climate targets, one of the biggest developing economies and a major carbon polluter, India, said in a proposal to the United Nations last month.

Developed countries have pledged to support developing economies with funding to address climate change and reduce emissions. Developing countries have been arguing for years that they cannot meet climate goals without substantial international mobilization of finance. In addition, the worst effects of climate change are being felt in many developing and very poor countries that don’t have the financial means to recover and build resilience amid extreme weather events and natural disasters.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/eu-wants-fossil-fuel-firms-contribute-climate-fund?fbclid=IwAR2G4x9pHvTif-9mTSngi3Nuirgih15C62uR4WcMn9pVMgwVVTUkZrZpvm4
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Reg

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2045 em: 2024-03-07 19:46:14 »
bandeira  da ue devia ser vermelha
Democracia Socialista Democrata. igualdade de quem berra mais O que é meu é meu o que é teu é nosso

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2046 em: 2024-03-08 00:47:48 »
bandeira  da ue devia ser vermelha


  «Avante povo, com sangue novo
    Bandeira rubra, rubra bandeira
    Avante povo, com sangue novo
    Bandeira rubra triunfará

    Bandeira rubra deve triunfar
    E Viva o Comunismo p'ra nos libertar
    Bandeira rubra deve triunfar
    E Viva o Comunismo p'ra nos libertar»


  «Avanti o popolo, alla riscossa,
    Bandiera rossa, Bandiera rossa.
    Avanti o popolo, alla riscossa,
    Bandiera rossa trionferà.

Refrão:

    Bandiera rossa la trionferà
    Evviva il comunismo e la libertà.
    Bandiera rossa la trionferà
    Evviva il comunismo e la libertà.»


https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandiera_Rossa
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2047 em: 2024-03-08 17:09:56 »
Acerca da tão propagandeada "Fraude climática":


«Hoje há arruada contra os “maluquinhos do clima”

ZAP

7 Março, 2024

3

(dr) Bruno Fialho / Facebook

Bruno Fialho, líder do ADN

Iniciativa do ADN: “Vamos expressar até com humor a fraude climática, onde terroristas climáticos param carros durante horas”.

O líder do ADN anunciou que, esta quinta-feira, irá realizar uma arruada em Lisboa, “contra a fraude climática”.

“Vamos expressar até com humor esta situação da fraude climática, onde terroristas climáticos param carros durante horas, enfiam tintas verdes na cabeça das pessoas, partem património nacional e nada lhes acontece“, referiu Bruno Fialho.

Considerando que as “alterações climáticas existem há 4.405 milhões de anos“, Bruno Fialho vai insurgir-se contra “estes maluquinhos do clima“.
Ler também:

    Fim das greves, Ponte Salazar e a guerra na Ucrânia é civil: o debate dos “outros”
    RIR não era “levado a sério” por causa de Tino de Rans; nova líder quer acabar com “pensos rápidos”

“Esta questão da fraude climática serve para colocar mais impostos em cima das pessoas para acabar com a agricultura. Defendemos a ecologia, o ecossistema e combatemos a poluição”, acrescentou.

A “fraude climática” tem sido um dos temas mais repetidos pelo partido Alternativa Democrática Nacional.

Ainda na semana passada, numa arruada no Porto marcada por chuva forte, Bruno Fialho ironizou: “Por acaso está a chover no Porto. Algo inédito”.

“Isto aqui é a prova da fraude climática que vivemos diariamente, com desinformação jornalística aos nossos jovens, que têm de começar a questionar esta fraude climática”, insistiu, na Antena 1.

“As alterações climáticas feitas pelo Homem não existem. Ponto”.
PUBLICIDADE

Já no debate na RTP, o líder do ADN apresentou números: “As emissões de dióxido de carbono representam 0,03% da atmosfera terrestre. E a interferência humana é 0,2%“.

“Portanto existe mesmo fraude climática. É sempre um prazer falar na RTP contra a desinformação jornalística”, comentou Bruno Fialho.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/arruada-adn-fraude-climatica-588163
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Kaspov

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« Responder #2048 em: 2024-03-08 17:28:23 »
No programa do ADN:

«42.
“FRAUDE CLIMÁTICA”
Combater a “fraude climática” anti-científica, o que tem impacto na política energética.»

https://adn.com.pt/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/programa-ADN-2024-contrato-eleitoral.pdf
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Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2049 em: 2024-03-15 15:58:38 »
Um comentário interessante:

«Mamdouh Salameh on March 14 2024 said:

This time President Biden doesn't have the luxury of resorting to the SPR having withdrawn 291 million barrels (mb) or 46% of its reserve in the first 2.5 years of his administration depleting it to no avail. Moreover, OPEC+ has no plans to raise production soon,

What is left for the United States is to continue with the market manipulation it has been orchestrating nonstop along with the IEA, oil traders and speculators since January 2022 to depress oil prices for the benefit of its economy and the refilling of the SPR.

The birds have come to roost.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rising-Gasoline-Prices-Bring-Bad-News-for-Biden.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2050 em: 2024-03-15 16:00:15 »
Em relação à actual situação:


«Rising Gasoline Prices Bring Bad News for Biden

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 13, 2024, 7:00 PM CDT

    The recent rise in U.S. gasoline prices is driving up inflation higher than expected.

    Higher gas prices pushing up inflation numbers in an election year can’t be good for President Biden, who is struggling to convince likely voters that the economy is doing well.

    The jump in gas prices ahead of and during the summer is expected to reverse to a steady decline in the autumn with the end of the driving season, and ahead of the presidential election in November.»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rising-Gasoline-Prices-Bring-Bad-News-for-Biden.html
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« Responder #2051 em: 2024-03-15 20:37:12 »
A nível doméstico, a electricidade não está mais barata do que o gás?

Kaspov

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« Responder #2052 em: 2024-03-15 21:38:20 »
A nível doméstico, a electricidade não está mais barata do que o gás?

Não sei... para mim estão ambos caríssimos... Gasto pouco gás e pouca electricidade e mesmo assim pago ca. 100 euros / mês...   :(

A conta é conjunta... é claro q a electricidade deve estar + cara porq apanha com o impacto brutal das energias renováveis...   :(

É claro q ambos apanham  com + 23 % de IVA em cima, e ainda + a "contribuição audiovisual", q penso vir acoplada à electricidade (e à qual acrescem ainda 6% de IVA)...   :(

à electricidade acrescem tb o "Termo de Potência" e o "Termo Fixo Acesso às Redes"... há ainda um "Imposto Especial Consumo (Real)", etc... a quase tudo isto acrescem + 23 % de IVA...   :(

Ao gás acresce um "Imposto Especial Consumo GN", assim como "Taxa Ocupação Subsolo Variável (Real)" e "Taxa Ocupação Subsolo Fixa (Real)", com + 23 % de IVA, claro...   enfim, uma festa, naturalmente!!   :'( 

Só 7,23 % da minha electricidade é prov. de energia nuclear, q virá de Espanha, suponho...

Renováveis, excl. hídrica (20,12 %) são quase 25 % (eólica, 12,48 %) ... Carvão, só 0,59 % e Gás Nat.  42 % ..., etc....   ::)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2053 em: 2024-03-22 02:55:43 »
Um texto interessante e muito recente, acerca do Oil, dos ilustres Goehring & Rozencwajg (2024):

«Oil

Oil investors turned extremely bearish during the fourth quarter. Worries over perceived strength in US shale production and fears of potential recession-related demand weakness drove prices lower. West Texas Intermediate and Brent fell by 21 and 17%, respectively. Oil-related equities fell, albeit less than the commodity. The XLE ETF, dominated by large-capitalization integrated energy companies, fell by 6.4%. In comparison, the smaller-cap S&P Exploration and Production Index fell by 6.7%, and the OIH, which tracks oilfield service stocks, fell by 9.1%.

Throughout the second half of 2023, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) released bearish data suggesting US production again surged after several consecutive years of disappointing growth. As of November 2023, the EIA claims that US production was still growing by a robust 1 m b/d year-on-year. Our models tell us these figures are simply incorrect, resulting from a subtle change in the EIA’s methodology rolled out last July. Although rarely commented upon, adjusting for this change, US production growth appears to have slowed dramatically throughout 2023, just as we predicted. We dissect the recent change and its impact on US production trends in the oil section of this letter.

Although few people care to admit it, global oil markets slipped into a “structural deficit” in the summer of 2020, causing OECD crude and refined product inventories to fall by 600 mm bbl over the next twenty-four months – a record. To prevent a price spike, OECD governments arranged a coordinated release of 320 mm barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves. In response to the government’s  SPR releases,  commercial inventories rose.  Since March of 2022, when SPR releases commenced, OECD commercial stocks have risen by almost 175 mm barrels.    Many analysts, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), have failed to comment on the true reasoning why commercial inventories have risen—SPR releases. Instead, the IEA has implied inventories rose simply because supply exceeded demand.  However, if one adjusts for  SPR liquidations,  inventories are unchanged, suggesting a market that is not in surplus—but balanced.   Given our models of both supply and demand, we firmly believe oil markets will once again fall into a sustained deficit in 2024. Although few people agree, we believe the deficit could prove so acute as to require further SPR liquidation later this year. The last period of structural deficit, between 2020 and 2022, saw crude prices advance three-fold from $40 to $120 per barrel. Could we experience the same again now? We recommend investors position themselves accordingly.»

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/4q-2024-natural-resources-market
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

vbm

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2054 em: 2024-03-22 06:07:48 »
Tentei perceber pelo fim do texto...
Fiquei na dúvida se vão baixar ou
não os stocks de precaução...

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2055 em: 2024-03-22 12:47:13 »
Tentei perceber pelo fim do texto...
Fiquei na dúvida se vão baixar ou
não os stocks de precaução...


Provavelmente...
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2056 em: 2024-03-22 19:13:10 »
Acerca da famosa "transição":


«A fase da transição verde “acabou”

Nuno Teixeira da Silva

20 Março, 2024
20 Março, 2024

ZAP // DALL-E-2

A procura global de petróleo aumenta mais do que o previsto, no início deste ano. Empresas petrolíferas em nítida expansão.

As empresas petrolíferas não se queixam. Quando olham para os seus números mais recentes, não se queixam do negócio.

A Saudi Aramco, a empresa pública dos Emirados Árabes Unidos, só nos primeiros nove meses do ano passado teve um resultado líquido de quase 90 mil milhões de euros – número acima do registo da maioria das empresas mais lucrativas do mundo… em todo o ano.

Noutro patamar, mas com números ilustrativos: a Chevron (EUA) e a TotalEnergies (França) chegaram aos 20 mil milhões de euros no ano passado, ligeiramente mais do que a ExxonMobil (EUA); a Shell (Reino Unido) atingiu um resultado líquido de 18 mil milhões de euros, lembrava o Expresso.
Ler também:

    Combustíveis fósseis “não podem ser substituídos” por energias renováveis
    TAP já só vale um terço do que os contribuintes pagam por ela

Voltando aos Emirados Árabes Unidos, na semana passada o famoso Porto de Fujairah teve um pico de stock de produtos petrolíferos como não se via desde o Verão do ano passado – e ocorreu durante a primeira semana do Ramadão, uma fase que costuma registar quebras no negócio, reforça a S&P Global.

As empresas petrolíferas continuam a aumentar extracção de petróleo e gás por todo o mundo, para satisfazer a procura das economias industrializadas.

O portal Rigzone não tem dúvidas: as expectativas, o sentimento do mercado petrolífero, melhoraram significativamente; as previsões da procura de petróleo “continuam a subir” e estão a desaparecer alguns dos maiores receios no sector.
Relatório global

Na quinta-feira passada foi publicado o relatório mensal do mercado global petrolífero, da Agência Internacional de Energia.

A agência confirma o que já foi escrito acima: prevê-se que a procura global de petróleo aumente mais do que o esperado ao longo do primeiro trimestre de 2024. Em concreto, estima-se uma subida de 1.7 milhões de barris por dia.
PUBLICIDADE

Este aumento está relacionado com uma melhoria das perspetivas para os Estados Unidos da América e com o aumento do abastecimento.

Lê-se no relatório que “o crescimento da procura regressa à sua tendência histórica, enquanto a eficiência aumenta – e os carros eléctricos estão a ser menos usados“.

No primeiro trimestre só há uma quebra global na produção de petróleo, comparando com o último trimestre de 2023, por causa do clima e das novas restrições do bloco OPEP+, que estão a prolongar cortes voluntários extras para apoiar a estabilidade do mercado.

Mas prevê-se que a oferta global para 2024 aumente quase um milhão de barris por dia, para um total de 102.9 milhões de barris por dia.
PUBLICIDADE

Igualmente para o ano 2024, prevê-se que a produção passe de 82.3 milhões para 83.5 milhões de barris por dia.

As exportações marítimas atingiram um máximo histórico.
“A transição verde acabou”

Estes números novos fazem-nos recuperar um aviso que o jornal Handelsblatt tinha feito em Fevereiro: “Os tempos da transição verde acabaram”.

O jornal económico refere um regresso em força do petróleo e repete que as grandes empresas petrolíferas estão mais uma vez fortemente dependentes do petróleo e do gás – e que as mesmas empresas fazem com que essas matérias sejam mais caras.
PUBLICIDADE

Está a decorrer uma “maratona de compras” no sector: as principais empresas petrolíferas ocidentais estão a investir milhares de milhões na aquisição de empresas concorrentes – e menores – dos combustíveis fósseis. Foram quase 600 transacções em 2023: como a da ExxonMobil, que comprou a concorrente Pioneer Natural Resources.

Foram anos a cortar custos e a concentrar-se nos retornos para os accionistas; mas agora as empresas petrolíferas estão a expandir as suas reservas e as áreas de mineração.
Ler também:

    Combustíveis fósseis “não podem ser substituídos” por energias renováveis
    TAP já só vale um terço do que os contribuintes pagam por ela

Nuno Teixeira da Silva, ZAP //»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/transicao-verde-acabou-590990
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2057 em: 2024-03-22 19:15:20 »
E, também, obviamente:


«Combustíveis fósseis “não podem ser substituídos” por energias renováveis

Lusa

13 Fevereiro, 2024
13 Fevereiro, 2024

2

paul_lowry / Flickr

Aviso do secretário-geral da OPEP, que acrescenta que as energias renováveis não estão a competir com o petróleo.

O secretário-geral da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP), Haitam al Ghais, afirmou hoje que os combustíveis fósseis não poderão ser substituídos pelas energias renováveis e que estas fontes de energia não existem “para competir” entre si.

Falando no Dubai durante um painel na Cimeira Mundial de Governos (WGS, da sigla em inglês), Haitam al Ghais também previu um aumento da procura de petróleo bruto que exigirá investimentos multimilionários nos próximos 20 anos.

O secretário-geral da OPEP classificou como “incorretas, erradas e não construtivas as informações e exigências de substituição do petróleo por energias renováveis“, assim como as que apontam que “as energias renováveis estão aqui para competir com o petróleo“.
Ler também:

    1973 vs. 2023: a crise petrolífera pode “ficar feia” – mas não há comparação
    Preço do petróleo dispara. Oferta pode cair com conflito no Médio Oriente

“Não vejo uma contradição, mas sim um equilíbrio” entre as energias fósseis e as energias renováveis, disse Ghais no fórum de autoridades políticas e económicas mundiais, que começou na segunda-feira no Dubai, recordando que “o petróleo existe em todos os aspetos da vida” e que “tudo no dia a dia é derivado do petróleo”.

“Na OPEP acreditamos que tudo o que está relacionado com a energia vai continuar a ser necessário. Uma fonte de energia não substituirá a outra, especialmente o petróleo, que representa atualmente mais de 30% do cabaz energético global”, afirmou.

“Trata-se de uma percentagem significativa e, se acrescentarmos o gás, estamos a falar de 60% (…) e esses 60% de petróleo e gás continuarão a ser uma componente importante do cabaz energético que seguirá a crescer nos próximos anos”, sublinhou.

Embora admitindo que não tem uma “bola de cristal” para prever o futuro, o responsável máximo da OPEP enfatizou que as estimativas da organização “baseiam-se em dados e análises” do mercado, tendo o volume da procura até 2045 sido calculado em 116 milhões de barris por dia (MBD).

“Na nossa perspetiva de longo prazo, vemos um aumento da procura para 116 milhões de barris por dia até 2045 e isso requer um investimento significativo na indústria petrolífera”, considerou.
PUBLICIDADE

Neste contexto, Ghais defendeu os investimentos dos membros da organização para desenvolver a respetiva capacidade de produção e “garantir a segurança energética”, reduzindo simultaneamente as emissões.

“Não há contradição entre o desenvolvimento dos recursos naturais e a luta contra as alterações climáticas”, sustentou, sublinhando que “muitos membros da OPEP”, incluindo empresas petrolíferas mundiais, como a saudita ARAMCO e a ADNOC, dos Emirados Árabes Unidos, “assinaram a Carta de Descarbonização” acordada em novembro passado na COP28, no Dubai.

“É um sinal claro da sua intenção e dos seus planos para abordar a transição energética”, afirmou Ghais, sublinhando que a OPEP “acredita na liberdade de cada país para ter o seu próprio plano de transição de acordo com as suas circunstâncias nacionais”.

Insistindo que “o petróleo continua a ser uma pedra angular para o desenvolvimento e do progresso económico e social“, o responsável apelou para que “se aborde a transição energética com pragmatismo e realismo, tendo em conta que 30% do cabaz energético” é um volume “enorme” e “não é fácil substituí-lo de um dia para o outro”.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/combustiveis-fosseis-energias-renovaveis-583568
« Última modificação: 2024-03-22 19:16:56 por Kaspov »
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2058 em: 2024-03-27 19:37:09 »
Acerca dos maravilhosos EV's:


«Ter um eléctrico é aumentar a probabilidade de ter um acidente

ZAP

25 Março, 2024
25 Março, 2024
2

Robert Linder / Unsplash

Desta vez, a conclusão é de um estudo português: elétricos e híbridos têm taxas de sinistralidade maiores do que os carros a combustíveis.

A conclusão não é inédita mas, desta vez, surge num estudo realizado em Portugal.

A Fidelidade, companhia de seguros, concluiu que conduzir um carro eléctrico (ou um híbrido) é sinónimo de maior probabilidade de ter um acidente.

Os dados foram recolhidos através dos registos dos clientes da própria empresa e revelados pelo jornal Correio da Manhã.
Ler também:

    Quanto tempo “aguentamos” o mesmo carro?
    Carros: qual é a cor que se envolve mais em acidentes?

Os eléctricos e híbridos têm taxas de sinistralidade maiores do que os carros movidos a combustíveis.

No caso dos eléctricos, a probabilidade aumenta muito: 50%. Nos híbridos, a taxa de acidentes é 25% maior.

Os motivos, tal como já tínhamos partilhado, são: aceleração mais brusca, menor controlo do carro nesse momento, mais pesados, mais danos e mais silenciosos – mais facilmente o peão não se apercebe do carro e é atropelado.

Mais acidentes e mais dinheiro gasto: os choques são a outra escala, seja com objectos ou com pessoas, e as reparações são mais caras (26% nos eléctricos e 11% nos híbridos); e os carros ficam parados durante mais tempo.

Mesmo com estas diferenças, o preço do seguro não se altera pelo carro ser eléctrico ou híbrido.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/electrico-mais-acidentes-592039
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2059 em: 2024-03-29 20:14:10 »
About oil in SA (and Matt Simmons):


«Further Ruminations on Saudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves

03/27/2024

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The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary.


“Saudi Aramco Abruptly Drops Plans to Expand Oil Production,”
~ The New York Times, January 30, 2024

In an unexpected move, Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, announced the Kingdom had directed it to maintain its “maximum sustainable crude capacity” at 12 m b/d and to abandon its longstanding plan of increasing production to 13 m b/d. The financial press took the announcement to suggest the Kingdom expects oil demand will soon peak. “Saudi Aramco Drops Expansion Plans, Raising Demand Questions” ran a Bloomberg headline, capturing the zeitgeist.

We wonder if perhaps Saudi Arabia canceled their expansion plans because they worry that remaining recoverable reserves are now insufficient to support higher sustained production.

We have keenly followed Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves for decades. We first visited the Ghawar super-major field in January 2004, one year before Matt Simmons wrote his controversial book Twilight in the Desert. We were impressed by the massive focus on drilling (at the time) ultra-long lateral wells targeting the uppermost section of Ghawar’s anticlinal structure. Mr. Simmons would go on to write extensively on the topic. While the technology was impressive, it retrospectively represented Aramco’s concerted effort to maintain Ghawar at 5 mm b/d. It was an early tipoff that Ghawar – the foundation of the country’s oil industry – was entering a long period of decline.

After Mr. Simmons’s book was published in 2005, securing a travel visa or meeting with Aramco became far more complex. Several times, our visas were issued and later revoked, or else our investment banking contacts informed us that efforts to get a visa would be unproductive. Despite our inability to travel to the Kingdom, our interest in recoverable reserve controversy only grew.

The old Saudi Aramco last published an audited reserve estimate in 1976 of 150 bn barrels of proved and probable reserves. Without explanation, in 1988, Aramco increased its recoverable reserve estimate to 260 bn bbl. Since then, Saudi Arabia has reconfirmed annually that its reserves remain unchanged at 260 bn bbl despite pumping over 120 bn bbl since 1988. The Kingdom does not produce an audited reserve report to back up its estimates, but this has not stopped most energy analysts from taking the figure at face value. In their 2023 Statistical Review, BP lists Saudi reserves at 295 bn bbl. In our 3Q18 letter, we wrote an extensive essay on why we firmly believe their reserve figure is far lower – likely no more than 160 bn bbl.

It seemed, for a moment, that the mystery would be solved in late 2018. Aramco announced it would be issuing a London-listed bond offering of $12 bn that would require filing an audited reserve report as part of the prospectus. In January 2019, Aramco released a summary of the report prepared by DeGolyer & MacNaughton, a highly respected Houston-based firm that incidentally oversaw the last published audit in 1979. In the summary, Aramco confirmed that Saudi’s remaining reserves totaled 263 bn bbl.

While the bond prospectus initially appeared to have settled the debate, it raised more questions than answers. First, it does not appear that DeGolyer & MacNaughton arrived at the exact figure reported in the summary. In their certification letter, included as Appendix C of the prospectus and overlooked by many, the authors disclose their audit only covered 162 bn bbl – much closer to our estimate. The remaining 98 bn barrels were never independently evaluated or verified.

Instead, DeGolyer & MacNaughton reported that nearly 45 bn bbl of Aramco’s self-reported reserves were said to be in fields too small or remote to analyze. Furthermore, another 53 bn bbl were not evaluated because they were expected to be produced after 2077 – the expiry date of Aramco’s oil concession. Although the summary strongly suggested that the auditors had independently verified Aramco’s stated 260 bn bbl reserve figure, they had only confirmed 162 bn bbl.

The report begged the question: do the other 100 bn bbl exist? The answer is crucial in assessing Aramco’s future pumping capability.

According to King Hubbert, a field’s production will follow a bell-shaped curve: ramping up slowly at first, then faster before eventually plateauing, peaking, and declining in a mirror image of the ramp-up. Peak production corresponds to half the field’s recoverable reserves having been produced. We calculate that Saudi Arabia by 2019 had produced 150 bn bbl since its fields were first developed in the early 1950s.

Assuming Saudi Arabia did have 260 bn bbl of remaining reserves, by 2018 it had already produced 40% of its total recoverable reserves. If Saudi Arabia continued pumping between 9 and 10 mm b/d, by 2031, it would reach its halfway point, at which point production would decline. Under this 2018 scenario, Aramco could increase output to 13 m b/d and still have a decade until declines took hold.

Instead, if the 45 bn bbl contained in fields too small or remote to evaluate were not recoverable (which we believe), then production would peak in only six years. Under this scenario, Saudi production should be in the plateau phase and incremental production gains would likely be short-lived. Since 2015, Aramco has, in fact, unexpectedly throttled back production several times. While the stated reason has been to balance the market, it may have more to do with geological depletion than is commonly believed.

A third scenario must also be seriously considered. If the post-2077 reserves do not exist, the Kingdom has already produced half of its total recoverable reserves. Under this scenario, increasing production for anything other than the briefest period would be very challenging. DeGolyer & MacNaughton did not attempt to verify the 53 bn bbl contained in this category. In our 2Q19 letter, we tried to determine whether these reserves seemed reasonable using indirect statistical methods. Our conclusion: they likely do not exist.

We performed a Hubbert Linearization, in which we studied the relationship between current production and current to cumulative production ratio. This was a technique advanced by King Hubbert to try and estimate a field’s ultimate recoverable reserves. After an initial period of instability, the relationship between the two settles into a straight line that can be extrapolated to estimate reserves.

Hubbert Linearization of Saudi Reserves

We next computed an expected production profile for Saudi Arabia based on the Linearization. This profile suggests that between 2018 and 2077, Saudi Arabia will produce 158 bn bbl – very much in line with the DeGolyer & MacNaughton audited figure. By 2077, the model predicts production will have fallen from 9 mm b/d today to only 3.1 mm b/d, with declines of 4% per annum. Aramco claims that post-2077, Saudi reserves will still total 53 bn bbl. However, we believe this is mathematically impossible. If 2077 production stands at 3.1 m b/d, and it declines by 4% per year, as suggested by our Hubert Linearization, then cumulative production from 2077 forward would never exceed 28 bn bbl.

Assuming the “too small, too remote” fields do not exist, and total reserves post-2077 total 28 bn and not 53 bn bbl (as reported in the summary), then Saudi’s ultimate recoverable reserves are 340 bn bbl, of which 52 % have been produced as of 2024. The Saudis are now past their halfway point in producing their recoverable reserves. Under this scenario, production cannot grow from here, and outright declines should be expected at any time.

Saudi Production Profile

Although a flurry of interest surrounded Mr. Simmons’s book nearly twenty years ago, few energy analysts pay attention to the Kingdom’s geological issues today. Although most analysts incorrectly interpreted the Saudi news as proof of “peak demand,” we take a different view: Matt Simmons was not wrong, merely early. We believe the recent announcement to abandon its growth targets is the first sign our analysis was correct, as outlined in 2019 in three essays—3rd Q 2018, 1st Q 2019, and 2nd Q 2019--, and that sustained Saudi Aramco production declines are much closer than anyone anticipates. 

Intrigued? We invite you to download or revisit our entire Q4 2023 research letter, available below.»


https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/saudi-arabias-oil-reserves
« Última modificação: 2024-03-29 20:14:59 por Kaspov »
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there