Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal

[Kaspov]

+ 1 "golpe" para os "ambientalistas", desta vez na Noruega:


«Norway Approves Deep-Sea Mining for Critical Minerals

By Julianne Geiger - Jan 09, 2024, 12:30 PM CST


Environmentalists received a blow this week as Norway’s parliament agreed to allow Arctic seabed exploration to mine for critical minerals as it attempted to shift away from its reliance on oil and gas.

The decision could make Norway the first country in the world to commercialize deep-sea mining to harvest critical minerals as the electrification-of-everything push gets underway.

Norway did not specify when exploration of the Arctic seabed would commence, but it did say that an application process would be used to assign exclusive exploration and extraction rights of specific areas to companies.

Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland told parliament,” We’re now going to see if this can be done in a sustainable manner, and that is the step we have taken now.”

The mineral exploration and extraction award process will be fashioned after the country’s oil and gas exploration process—but sources told Reuters that the method for taxing critical minerals exploration and extraction have yet to be determined and will come later.

The vote was mainly in line with an unofficial deal reached between the government and opposition parties in December—the latter of which argued that this deep-sea mining would hamper biodiversity. But Tuesday’s deal does set stricter environmental standards than what was originally agreed upon.

Last year around this time, Norway conducted a survey that determined that a “substantial” amount of metals and minerals was present, including a staggering 38 million tonnes of copper. According to the Nordic Council of Ministers, the Nordic bedrock hosts over 43 million tons of economically viable deposits of rare earth minerals. Finland, Sweden, and Norway are among the top eight countries favorable for critical minerals and battery supply chain development as per Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

De-risking has become the new goal of many governments, who for now, are reliant on China for critical minerals.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Approves-Deep-Sea-Mining-for-Critical-Minerals.html

[Kaspov]

Pois, já tínhamos percebido q o mau tempo chegara...   


«Europe to Face Cold Weather in January after Mild December

By ZeroHedge - Jan 05, 2024, 10:00 AM CST


    Talk of a "polar vortex" has been increasing on social media platform X by notable meteorologists.
    Across North West Europe, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe, ECMWF and GFS models forecast average temperatures will begin to plunge below seasonal norms through the weekend into next week.
    Maxar Technologies said London is expected to record a low of 19.4 Fahrenheit on Monday. Further north, folks in Stockholm are bracing for single-digit temperatures on Sunday.


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Winter weather


The Lower 48 and Europe enjoyed a mild start to winter but will be transitioning into a period of colder and possibly even snowier conditions through at least the mid-point of January. This will lead to a surge in heating demand on both sides of the Atlantic.

ECMWF and GFS models forecast that after an unusually warm December driven by El Nino, lower 48 temperatures from Thursday through Jan. 15 will trend around a 30-year seasonal average of about 37 Fahrenheit. After the mid-point of the month, the latest GFS Operational model shows a cold snap could be in play.

Talk of a "polar vortex" has been increasing on social media platform X by notable meteorologists.

Across North West Europe, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe, ECMWF and GFS models forecast average temperatures will begin to plunge below seasonal norms through the weekend into next week.

"Colder conditions will soon invest Europe more widely, with temperatures steadily dropping later this week into next week," Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, told Bloomberg.

Northwest Europe

Central Europe

Eastern Europe

Maxar Technologies said London is expected to record a low of 19.4 Fahrenheit on Monday. Further north, folks in Stockholm are bracing for single-digit temperatures on Sunday.

The impending cold snap in Europe has led Finland's transmission system operator to warn customers about using electricity during peak morning and evening hours. 

By Zerohedge.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-to-Face-Cold-Weather-in-January-after-Mild-December.html

[Kaspov]

Acerca de umas eleições particularmente importantes (2024), entre outros tópicos interessantes:

The West's Net Zero madness is fuelling mass third world immigration | Interview - The Telegraph

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB6HxgxVsaE

[Kaspov]

Muito interessante, acerca do famigerado "Aquecimento Global":

Jô Soares - Aquecimento Global uma Farsa - Ricardo Felicio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOV1gZsxERg

(124 811 visualizações  15/04/2014 - Prof. Ricardo Augusto Felicio)


E, acerca do Prof. Ricardo Augusto Felicio, q tem dito diversas coisas com muito interesse:

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Fel%C3%ADcio

[Kaspov]

As coisas poderão talvez aquecer um pouco...


«Iran Hijacks Oil Tanker In Gulf Of Oman

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Jan 11, 2024 - 12:45 PM

Update:

Iranian naval forces, acting under a court order, seized Marshall Islands-flagged tanker "St Nikolas," Bloomberg reports, citing Iran's semi-official Tasnim agency reports. The report said St Nikolas is a "US oil tanker."

Earlier, research firm TankerTrackers said, "Iranians have boarded today in the Gulf of Oman is the ST NIKOLAS."

Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corp. chartered the tanker, which was transporting 140,00 tons of Iraqi SOMO crude. The vessel was en route to Aliaga in western Turkey.

*  *  *

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) authority reported hours ago a vessel was boarded by "4-5 armed unauthorized persons" about 50 miles east of Sohar, Oman.

"Unauthorized boarders are reported to be wearing military-style black uniforms with black masks. CSO reports that the vessel has altered its course towards Iranian territorial waters, and communications with the vessel have been lost," UKMTO said.

Bloomberg confirmed that the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker "St Nikolas" is the vessel that was hijacked. A previous report says that St Nikolas was seized by the US last year, sailing under a different name, "Suez Rajan," for transporting unauthorized Iranian cargo.

Empire Navigation, the vessel's operator, said the tanker was loaded with 145,000 tons of crude from the Iraqi port of Basra and was en route to Aliaga in western Turkey through the Suez Canal. It noted all communication with the vessel had been lost.

St Nikolas' Automatic Identification System (AIS), a tracking system that uses transceivers on ships to identify and locate vessels, was switched off. The vessel's last known position was about 50 miles east of Sohar late Wednesday night.

The hijacking incident was near another chokepoint: the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran.

Bloomberg noted crude prices in London rose about 2%.

The incident comes right after US Navy warships shot down two dozen missiles and drones in the Red Sea. The Associated Press dubbed the Iran-backed Houthis' attack as the "largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles targeting shipping in the Red Sea attack." 

And now the Pentagon's Operation Prosperity Guardian mission to safeguard critical commercial shipping lanes has to worry about conflict spreading from the Red Sea to the Hormuz Strait.»


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WoodMac-Global-Oil-Demand-to-Rise-by-2-Million-Bpd-in-2024.html

[Kaspov]

E a procura global poderá talvez aumentar um puco:


«WoodMac: Global Oil Demand to Rise by 2 Million Bpd in 2024

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 11, 2024, 9:30 AM CST

Oil demand will continue to set records this year, with global demand growth expected at nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 2023, Wood Mackenzie said in a report on Thursday.

China will account for around 25% of the worldwide growth in oil demand, according to the energy consultancy. 

Total global oil demand will average 103.5 million bpd for 2024, WoodMac said.

“Much of the growth [in oil demand] will be coming in the second half of the year,” Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President of Research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement.

“This will be fuelled by improving economic growth and lower interest rates.”

WoodMac expects oil supply to lag demand growth as OPEC+ supply cuts slow growth across 2024. However, the report adds that “without this production restraint the market could tilt into oversupply, especially if demand growth is below expectations.”

Wood Mackenzie’s oil demand assessment is close to OPEC’s latest outlook in its December monthly report, in which the cartel expected world oil demand growth at 2.2 million bpd for 2024, for an average of 104.4 million bpd, unchanged from the November assessment.

“Oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China,” the cartel said in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December.

“Continuous improvements in economic activity, steady manufacturing, and transportation activity mostly in China, Other Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in India and Latin America, are expected to account for the bulk of oil consumption,” according to OPEC. 

The organization also noted that the “Economic growth seen in the first three quarters this year in most key economies had been better than expected.”

OPEC said that last year’s “robust economic growth is expected to extend into 2024,” and sees global economic growth at 2.6% this year.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WoodMac-Global-Oil-Demand-to-Rise-by-2-Million-Bpd-in-2024.html

[Kaspov]

Acerca da Argentina e da acção do seu novo presidente:


«Argentina’s New President Is Looking To Shake Up Its Oil Industry

By Alex Kimani - Jan 03, 2024, 12:00 PM CST

    Argentine President Milei’s new bill has far-reaching implications for Argentina’s energy sector.

    Milei’s administration is looking to privatize 41 state-owned companies, including national oil firm YPF.

    Milei is also seeking to unshackle crude exports and leave local fuel prices at the mercy of market forces.


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Argentina Oil


When Argentine libertarian Javier Milei made his debut into politics in 2020 with a mission to"blow up" the system, few predicted that he would have a chance to do the shake-up from the highest office in the land and, not certainly, just three years later. However, that’s exactly what the economist and former TV pundit is now doing.

Last week, Milei sent a wide-ranging omnibus reform package to congress, part of his shock therapy approach he has adopted to transform Argentina’s economic policy into myriad aspects of government. Through the omnibus legislation, Milei is seeking to enforce shock economic policies, such as lifting import controls, undertake sharp spending cuts and devalue the peso by more than 50%.

The new bill has far-reaching implications for Argentina’s energy sector. At a time when a wave of nationalization is sweeping through Latin America, Milei has proposed to privatize 41 state-owned companies, including national oil firm YPF, nuclear power company Nucleoeléctrica Argentina and energy infrastructure player Energía Argentina.

Milei is also seeking to unshackle crude exports and leave local fuel prices at the mercy of market forces. The free-market provisions in his bill aim to replace rules that date back to the 1960s that prioritize ensuring affordable fuel supplies at home. Those rules allow the government to meddle in crude and gasoline pricing and also gives refiners the right to first refusal on export cargoes. However, the rules have  come under criticism in recent years for holding back the vast shale patch known as Vaca Muerta.

Under Milei’s proposal, “the executive branch won’t be able to intervene in, or fix, prices in the domestic market.” Argentina's shale oil traded at $58 a barrel in the third quarter, way lower than Brent’s $86 per barrel price tag at the time.

“Energy prices will couple with international values. The most radical change is eliminating the requirement to satisfy the needs of the local market — it’s an historic rupture with a century of Argentine tradition,” Juan Jose Carbajales, energy consultant and former oil and gas undersecretary, wrote in a report.

Gasoline prices in Argentina have skyrocketed since Milei was elected as president in November; however, at less than $3.10 per gallon, Argentines are still enjoying some of the cheapest gas anywhere on the planet.

A Win For Vaca Muerta’s Shale Oil Companies

Argentina Crude Oil Production (000’s of barrels per day)

Source: Trading Economics

Milei’s energy reforms are a big win for  YPF SA–the state-run oil company that he seeks to privatize– as well as dozens of Vaca Muerta oil and gas companies such as Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) and Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST) whose shale investments have been curtailed by low oil prices and protectionist policies that favor national energy companies.

Back in August, Bloomberg reported that Exxon Mobil Inc. (NYSE:XOM) was seriously mulling an exit from Vaca Muerta. According to the report, Exxon is currently working on six areas of the Vaca Muerta formation in Patagonia; unfortunately, efforts to ramp up development of its flagship Bajo del Choique-La Invernada site have hit a wall with the site currently producing just 15K boe/day. Bloomberg reported that Exxon is currently reviewing its 21% stake in a pipeline that transports oil to the Atlantic coast for export. The report, however, says Exxon does not intend to sell its three Argentine offshore exploration blocks.

 Located in the oil-rich Neuquén province, Vaca Muerta is a massive shale play estimated to hold 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in recoverable hydrocarbon resources, making it the second-largest shale gas deposit in the world. Indeed, Vaca Muerta is like the prolific U.S. Eagle Ford shale but on steroids because its dry gas window has proven to be commercially viable.

But whether or not Milei’s economic and energy reforms will bear fruit remains to be seen. And, that’s assuming the bill passes Congress where it’s likely to face stiff opposition where his party is a minority.

For a decade, the Argentine economy has been in a semi-permanent state of crisis which has only worsened in recent years, with inflation now approaching 150%, a sliding currency and rising poverty rates. Milei and his Liberty Advances coalition have enjoyed massive public support, especially among the young, helped by his colorful antics as well as his aggressive and theatrical style. However, Milei's detractors have pointed to his lack of experience in political office, not to mention that the controversial bill rips at the fabric of status-quo Argentine policymaking and might ultimately prove to be unpopular with the public.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com»


Tem vindo a crescer, a produção da Argentina:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Argentinas-New-President-Is-Looking-To-Shake-Up-Its-Oil-Industry.html

[Kaspov]

O Urânio (U) continua a ganhar importância:


«Uranium: New Market Star

01/12/2024

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The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary.


In 2018, uranium assets were widely considered to be stranded assets. Following the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, utilities closed nearly one-third of all nuclear power reactors. At precisely the wrong time, Kazakhstan, responding to high prices between 2000 and 2010, brought on almost 20 mm lbs of low-cost in-situ uranium production. The market shifted into severe surplus, and prices collapsed nearly 90%, from $140 to $18 per pound between 2011 and 2018.

We wrote our first bullish essay in the fourth quarter of 2017, with spot uranium trading at a 14-year low. We explained how the price of uranium had reached unsustainable levels. What made us so sure? Only two primary uranium producers were left; spot prices had left significant amounts of their production below their cash operating cost.

Cameco, the Canadian producer, changed hands for $9.00 per share, 25% below its tangible book value. Nearly a third of this book value was in cash. JP Morgan announced Kazatomprom’s IPO in November 2018. The deal was first offered at $15 per share, but when demand failed to materialize, they downsized it and lowered the price to $11.60. The stock immediately broke the deal price and fell to a low of $8.50 on its second trading day. If uranium prices stayed below $20 per pound, we argued, there would not be a uranium industry within a few years. No uranium producer could justify any reinvestment back into their businesses at such low prices.

Soon after we wrote, evidence emerged proving we were right: Cameco and Kazatomprom announced they would curtail production at their flagship operations. Although Cameco had long-term contracts struck at higher prices, they felt it was more prudent and cost-effective to purchase spot uranium to fulfill their obligations rather than produce out their excellent (and irreplaceable) McArthur River mine. Concurrent with Cameco’s announcement, Kazataprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, announced they would curtail 20% of their high-cost production. Given such low prices, the industry could not survive— proof was handed to us.

Few investors thought uranium companies had any future whatsoever; even fewer predicted they would become some of the best-performing stocks in the market. Since the end of 2018, Cameco and Kazatomprom have advanced four-fold, compared with 77% for natural resource stocks broadly, 97% for the S&P 500, and 161% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite. Smaller uranium development companies have surged as well. On October 29th, 2023, Bloomberg led with the bold headline: “Hedge Funds Pile Into Uranium Stocks Poised for Dramatic Gains.”

Shares outstanding of the Global X Uranium Miners ETF (URA) have exploded four-fold since late 2020. So, where do we go from here?

Although investors are no longer unanimously bearish, we believe the sector will outperform going forward. For the first time in history, uranium is in a large structural deficit, which will take years to correct.

As we outlined in our last letter, the market slipped into a steep primary deficit in 2020, at which point mine supply no longer covered reactor demand. However, investors remained completely unaware for another three years as secondary supplies from post-Fukushima commercial stockpiles filled the gap. Although the market is opaque, we believe utility buyers have completely worked off these stockpiles, revealing for the first time the structural deficit that has been developing for several years.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, a Canadian closed-end vehicle that buys and holds physical uranium, has been able to source only small amounts in recent months, leaving it with $60 mm of unwanted cash on its balance sheet.

In recent months, European utility buyers, who not long ago expected to decommission many of their reactors, have scrambled to secure uranium for replacement fuel rods now that these reactors’ lives have been unexpectedly extended. They have found it challenging to secure physical volumes, which has helped push the spot price above $80 per pound for the first time since 2008. US utilities, meanwhile, remain woefully under-contracted for the 2025-2028 period. Prices will likely move much higher when they finally return to the market. At this month’s COP28 climate conference in Dubai, the United States will officially pledge to triple world nuclear power capacity by 2050, from 400 GWe to 1.2 TWe. Uranium mine supply would need to grow four-fold from 125 mm lbs to over 500 mm lbs U3O8 annually to meet this projected demand. The United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Ghana, Japan, Morocco, Poland, Romania, and the UAE are also expected to join the pledge.

Despite the favorable outlook, we find it helpful to consider what factors will eventually spell the end of the uranium bull market. Demand destruction is unlikely. Uranium demand is highly price-inelastic. Unlike in a coal or natural gas power plant, nuclear reactors are much more sensitive to capital costs, with fuel making up only 5% of total expenditures. Particularly once a reactor is running, the operator is willing to pay almost any price for the fuel necessary to keep it running. Furthermore, regulated utilities own most nuclear reactors and can pass fuel costs to rate-payers.

Instead, uranium will likely peak once high prices increase mine supply. In November, the Saskatchewan provincial government approved NextGen’s Arrow deposit, the first approval in 30 years. We hold NextGen in our portfolios. Arrow is slated to commence production in 2028, although we believe the timeline is optimistic and will likely start later. Arrow is a world-class deposit slated to produce 20 mm lbs per year – large but not nearly enough to meet future demand. The US used to be the world’s largest uranium producer, although it produces de minimis volumes today. In 1980, the US produced 40 mm pounds of uranium, and many of these former operations remain fully permitted and are being rehabilitated. The first in-situ project—UR Energy’s Lost Creek, is scheduled to produce as soon as next year, although volumes will only be 2-3 mm lbs per year. Kazatomprom has announced it will increase production by 15 mm lbs next year, although we are skeptical. A potential sulfuric acid bottleneck could make reaching their goal impossible. We are trying to schedule a trip in 2024 to learn more and will report back. Adding to this supply, Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine, long shut because of low prices, is scheduled to restart in 2024 and will add 6 mm lbs to 2024 uranium supply.

Although supply will ultimately undo the uranium rally, it will take years to ramp up, given years of chronic underinvestment in the industry. Prices will likely move much higher.

    AS U.S. UTILITY BUYERS REALIZE THAT DECADES OF AMPLE SECONDARY SUPPLY ARE GONE, THEY WILL PANIC, SCRAMBLE TO SECURE VOLUMES, AND DRIVE PRICES MUCH HIGHER.

We leave you with a prediction. As U.S. utility buyers realize that decades of ample secondary supply are gone, they will panic, scramble to secure volumes, and drive prices much higher. Eventually, they may be induced to approach the various financial vehicles, including the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, to seek the uranium they need. Ultimately, they might be forced to pay large premiums to spot prices to secure long-term supply. We believe this will likely mark the top of the uranium bull market. This could be many years away; until then, we believe the uranium price rally will persist.

Intrigued? We invite you to download or revisit our entire Q3 2023 research letter, available below.»


https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/uranium-market-star?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=289773159&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9teusxIQvxAMxmTMLf0AIGVYfG4xXr_08o9sdf0xAlMgpGwribb_Q5s7KGtybEym2mZdI0j5HpIsXm-q8OMno9QfBhRQ&utm_content=289773159&utm_source=hs_email

[Kaspov]

Acerca do tempo frio e do aumento das necessidades energéticas:


«All 50 US States Under 'Active' Federal Weather Alerts

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Jan 13, 2024 - 02:20 PM


Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),


Multiple types of weather alerts were implemented in every U.S. state by the National Weather Service (NWS), warning that “powerful winter storms” are slated to hit much of the country.

In a statement posted to X, the NWS warned that “a VERY active weather pattern, and EVERY state in the US has an active NWS Watch, Warning, or Advisory.”

    “A powerful winter storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, and blizzard conditions from the mid-Missouri Valley, Midwest to the Great Lakes through Saturday,” another NWS alert said. “Behind this system, dangerous frigid temperatures are likely across the Rockies and Plains through this weekend. Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast today, with strong winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible.”

The agency said that “dangerously cold Arctic air” will then hit the U.S. heartland starting this weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain below zero for the northern Plains region starting Friday morning, while temperatures of minus-20 to minus-30 degrees F or more are slated to hit the Plains states on Saturday morning without factoring in wind chill.

With wind chills, temperatures may go as low as minus-35 to minus-50 degrees for parts of the Plains states, the agency said. It noted that such wind chills could lead to frostbite in a matter of only minutes.

Other than the NWS, several private forecasters such as AccuWeather warned that the upcoming frigid weather will be the “coldest air for the southern Plains” states since late 2022. “In addition to the cold, there is a risk of freezing rain, sleet and even snow in the region,” the forecaster said.

“The coldest air of the winter season thus far, transported directly from northwestern Canada, will surge across the northern Rockies and northern Plains by Saturday,” AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter wrote. “That air will then drive all the way south into Texas and other Southern states on Sunday.”

Before that, though, winter storm warnings are now in effect for Great Lakes and Midwest states due to a storm currently trekking across the United States. According to the NWS’s Des Moines office, “storms of this magnitude are fairly rare with recurrence around once or twice per decade.”

By Saturday morning, road crews in Iowa and Nebraska were struggling to keep ahead of the fast-falling snow.

The Iowa Department of Transportation’s road conditions map showed that virtually every major highway and interstate was partially or completely covered. The agency said driver visibility was “near zero” in some places, and wind-fueled drifts were quickly erasing the work of plow drivers.

The Iowa State Patrol posted photos of an icy wreck. “Please, don’t put yourself or others in danger,” the agency wrote. “The road conditions are extremely dangerous!” Blizzard warnings were issued in southwestern Minnesota on Friday.

In Kansas City, Missouri, black ice caused dozens of wrecks as freezing rain created any icy sheen over the roads. Temperatures in the mid-teens combined with wind of more than 20 mph created a bitterly cold wind chill of around 9 below zero.

As of Saturday morning, hundreds of major airlines canceled or delayed flights at several airports, likely due to the poor weather conditions, according to FlightAware’s data. Chicago’s O'Hare Airport and Midway Airport canceled a large number of flights as the region braces for snow. Flights were also canceled or delayed in Denver, Seattle, Milwaukee, Detroit, Kansas City, and many more.

Earlier this week, multiple forecasters noted that the frigid air is due to the return of the Arctic mass of air known as the “polar vortex.”

“The stratospheric polar vortex is now stretching down across North America,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist Amy Butler wrote on Tuesday afternoon.

The jet or Arctic air “will be pushed further south, and guess what that does? It opens up the freezer door,” said Fox Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith. “All of that cold, arctic air that has been bottled up right over Canada, right over the Arctic, is going to be blasting its way right into the Lower 48.”

Frigid air is expected to inundate much of Texas and Oklahoma, too, starting this weekend and lasting into next week.

This week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) sent a warning from Jan. 15 to Jan. 17 due to “extreme cold weather” and elevated “electrical demand” could lower power reserves across Texas. ERCOT manages about 90 percent of the state’s power grid and has suffered energy shortfalls in recent years.

“ERCOT continues to closely monitor the winter weather moving in over the weekend and will deploy all available tools to reliably manage the grid,” ERCOT said in a Thursday post. “We will post daily updates to our social media channels during the ERCOT Weather Watch beginning Monday, January 15. At this time, grid conditions are expected to be normal, and there is not a current expectation of an energy emergency.”»


https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/all-50-us-states-under-active-federal-weather-alerts

[Kaspov]

«OPEC Influence Wavers as U.S. Shale Roars Back

By Irina Slav - Dec 21, 2023, 10:00 AM CST

    U.S. crude oil production reached 13.2 million barrels per day in September, surpassing previous forecasts.

    Improvements in drilling techniques and technology have enabled higher production without increased spending or rig count.

    The rise in U.S. production has forced OPEC to reconsider its strategies, as it may no longer be able to control prices effectively through production cuts.


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shale


In April this year, OPEC surprised oil markets by announcing additional production cuts in a bid to stimulate prices to go higher.

Prices did go higher. There was nothing to stop them. U.S. drillers were busy returning cash to shareholders, supply growth was sluggish everywhere, and demand looked robust.

Fast forward to December, and the 1-million-bpd growth in U.S. oil production is the talk of the town, OPEC is running out of options, and the oil market is more unpredictable than ever.

It appears that along with the latest Middle Eastern war, the expansion in U.S. oil production was the surprise of the year. Back in April, analysts were confident that U.S. shale drillers would remain focused on shareholder returns and capital discipline and would not dare think about production growth too much.

“We’re now into several years of players like us running these businesses for returns and free cash flow, and that’s not going to change in the short term or the long term,” the chief executive of Ovintiv said at the time as quoted by Bloomberg.

“The OPEC cut was only possible because of the inability/unwillingness of the U.S. shale oil sector to grow at the same rate as it was in 2016-2020,” notorious oil trader John Arnold said in April.

The above pretty much illustrates the dominant opinion on U.S. oil for much of the year. On top of that, for much of the year, drillers were shedding rather than adding rigs, contributing to that dominant opinion.

And here was the why: “The U.S. is unlikely to fill in the OPEC gap anytime soon,” Peter McNally, global head of energy at Third Bridge, a market intelligence firm, told Bloomberg at the time.

“The stock market has punished those producers who have committed to more aggressive spending plans.”

In the mind of industry observers, drilling rig numbers and spending were the only indicators worth following for a glimpse into production trends. It turned out this was wrong. Because U.S. shale producers managed to boost production without spending more and without using more rigs, catching the market—and OPEC—by surprise.

Crude oil production in the U.S. hit 13.2 million barrels in September, according to the latest data from the EIA. A year ago, EIA forecasted production at 12.5 million bpd for the fourth quarter of the year. Of course, production could yet decline from the September record, but it is unlikely to decline this much. U.S. shale surprised everyone.

The reason it surprised everyone was well productivity. While everyone was watching the weekly rig count—which has declined by 20% overall this year—frackers worked on improving their drilling techniques and technology. And it paid off.

Back in August, no fewer than five large shale oil producers reported higher-than-expected well productivity. Pioneer Natural Resources, Ovintiv, Occidental Petroleum, Diamondback Energy, and Chevron all said their wells were producing more than previously expected. Apparently, the news was largely ignored, judging by the surprise that is gripping everyone right now.

Now, analysts are probably treating their fixation on the rig count and paying more attention to reports about well productivity improvements, and OPEC is running out of options. The cuts implemented earlier this year actually helped U.S. shale. They stabilized prices at relatively high levels, boosting returns and possibly even placating shareholders. And, because U.S. oil sells relatively cheaply, it helped drive the export surge.

The Energy Information Administration predicts that growth in U.S. oil production will slow significantly in 2024. It expects this growth at just 180,000 bpd, from an average of 12.93 million bpd this year to an average of 13.11 million bpd next year.

The EIA must have sound reasons for this prediction, just as it had sound reasons for last year’s prediction of this year’s production rate. Forecasts are not set in stone. They often turn out to be wrong because they necessarily make a number of assumptions, including the assumption of increasingly weaker oil demand growth.

Yet oil demand has repeatedly surprised forecasts, just like U.S. shale drillers. It should have peaked in 2019, per BP, and it was supposed to slow down considerably this year and next, per the IEA. Instead, this year, demand hit an all-time high, and the IEA recently updated its 2024 forecast, saying that demand was now expected to grow faster because of moderating prices.

While this happens, OPEC is busy expanding. This is the alternative to a price war, as it seeks to add more large oil producers that could participate in production control plans to make them more effective. If the expansion plan does not live up to expectations, however, a price war would be OPEC’s only option as U.S. drillers chug along with their longer laterals and shorter well-drilling times. The question is whether it is still a safe option.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Influence-Wavers-as-US-Shale-Roars-Back.html

[Kaspov]

E os comentários ao artigo acima, com muito interesse:


«Mike Lewicki on December 21 2023 said:

not really

you try anything for ? bearishness.

you fail to acknowledge population growth

you fail to recognise global mobility expansion

you have not travelled it looks like.

china ?? will grow -- cny soon
asean is growing like crazy
India as well and 17% of the world
middle east building and building
Turkey buying 270 new aircraft

Good luck



Cihan on December 21 2023 said:

just remember this:depleted stocks are 200 million barrels



Mamdouh Salameh on December 21 2023 said:

The United States was a real oil tiger until the early 1970s but no more. It is now a paper oil tiger which doesn’t pose any threat whatsoever to OPEC Plus’ dominance in the global oil market.

My rebuttal is based on the following:

1- The EIA’s claim that US crude production including shale oil is 13.2 million barrels a day (mbd) is inflated by more tha 2.0 mbd being the difference between the EIA’s estimates of weekly and monthly production figures.

2- Such claims by the EIA are doubted and refuted by veterans of US shale oil revolution.

3- Even with advances in drilling technology and higher productivity, US production couldn’t have been on the rise despite a continuous decline of oil rigs.

4- Claimed US crude oil exports aren’t real exports. They are an exchange or a barter trade between the ultra-light shale oil the US exports with an equivalent quantity of heavier crudes which US refineries have been mostly tooled to process.

5- OPEC Plus is the most influential player in the global oil market and will remain so well into the future.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Influence-Wavers-as-US-Shale-Roars-Back.html

[Kaspov]

Os inventários a reduzirem-se...


«Oil Moves Up on Inventory Draw

By Irina Slav - Jan 18, 2024, 10:08 AM CST


Join Our Community
Tanker


Crude oil prices inched higher today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an estimated inventory decline of 2.5 million barrels for the week to January 12.

This compared with a moderate inventory build of 1.3 million barrels for the previous week, which also saw another round of massive increases in fuel inventories that drove prices lower at the time.

For last week, the EIA also reported more inventory builds in gasoline and middle distillate stocks.

In gasoline, the authority estimated an inventory increase of 3.1 million barrels for the week to January 12. This compared with a build of 8 million barrels for the previous week.

Gasoline production averaged 9.4 million barrels daily last week, compared with 9.7 million bpd for the prior week.

In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory build of 2.4 million barrels for the week to January 12. This compared with a build of 6.5 million barrels for the previous week.

Middle distillate production averaged 4.9 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 5.2 million barrels daily for the week before.

Oil prices meanwhile inched higher earlier in the week, after OPEC released its first monthly report for the year. In it, the cartel forecast robust demand growth for the year, at 2.25 million bpd, which is the same level of demand growth it had forecast earlier, too. OPEC also predicted strong demand growth for 2025, at 1.85 million barrels daily.

Prices also received some support from the supply situation in the U.S., which has been affected by a cold snap that has cost North Dakota 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd in temporarily halted production.

A fresh round of attacks by U.S. and UK forces against Yemeni military targets on Wednesday also lent some support for prices, albeit a modest one.

The International Energy Agency meanwhile has largely dismissed the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East citing robust supply elsewhere and expectations of weaker demand.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Moves-Up-on-Inventory-Draw.html

[Kaspov]

A política energética a afundar a Alemanha...   


«A Europa está preocupada com a Alemanha

Nuno Teixeira da Silva

19 Janeiro, 2024
19 Janeiro, 2024

Ludovic Marin/EPA

Mario Draghi, Emmanuel Macron e Olaf Scholz

Os outros países da UE já não olham para os alemães como o motor do crescimento económico europeu. O cenário mudou.

Tempos houve em que, além do futebol, na economia quem ganhava quase sempre era a Alemanha.

A economia, a indústria, o comércio. As fábricas, os produtos de alta qualidade, os carros. Tudo convencia quando vinha da Alemanha, que era um país dominante nos mercados e confiável para os vizinhos europeus.

Agora não é assim.

Ler também:

    A Alemanha voltou a ser “o doente da Europa”?
    Metas de Medina para a economia em risco. O PRR e a JMJ vão “passar o pano”?

Há poucos meses, em Setembro, o canal Euronews destacava que a Alemanha passou a ser o país com pior desempenho, entre os que têm as economias mais desenvolvidas.

Já nesta semana os números confirmaram uma recessão no ano passado: o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) da Alemanha recuou 0,3% em 2023.

Há dois motivos essenciais para esta recessão da economia alemã: a guerra na Ucrânia e a consequente perda do gás natural barato de Moscovo.

Foi uma espécie de choque, dos grandes, para o sector industrial da Alemanha (o maior da União Europeia), que agora atravessa uma crise óbvia.

Os alemães estão preocupados. Alegam que há pouca reacção do Governo, queixam-se dos preços da energia e vêem o país a caminho de uma espécie de “desindustrialização”: há fábricas ameaçadas, empregos em risco – algo impensável até 2022, para a maioria.

PUBLICIDADE

Europa atenta

Os outros europeus também estão preocupados. O jornal Handelsblatt escreve mesmo que a Europa está preocupada com o motor de crescimento alemão e, por arrasto, o maior do continente.

“A UE já não pode contar com a Alemanha como âncora para o crescimento“, avisa o jornal alemão, que destaca as preocupações que chegam de França, outra potência europeia – e que tem na Alemanha o seu principal parceiro comercial.

O jornal Le Monde retrata esta “anemia preocupante” na economia alemã e lembra que a maior economia da Europa cresceu apenas 0,7% desde 2019, correndo o risco de estagnar.

Já o Les Échos tem outra descrição: é o fim da “posição excepcional” da Alemanha, cuja economia está num “completo nevoeiro”.»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/europa-preocupada-alemanha-578467

[Kaspov]

Acerca da famosa "Transição energética":


«Economic Results Of California Banning Gas Vehicles

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Jan 20, 2024 - 12:40 AM


Authored by Anne Johnson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),


As a result of California Governor Gavin Newsom’s executive order, gas-powered vehicles will be banned by 2035. This refers to new vehicles and existing gas-powered cars and trucks that will be allowed on California roads for the moment.

Other states are following California. But with electric vehicles (EVs) comes an investment. What are the economic ramifications of banning gas-powered vehicles? Can California afford it? Can America afford it?
(Shutterstock)
California Banns New Gas-Powered Vehicles 2035

Gov. Newsom’s executive order was announced in 2020 and was followed by the California Air Resources Board’s approval in August 2022. Automakers and car dealers will be restricted to selling only cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks that generate zero tailpipe emissions by 2035.

To prepare for this, California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule requires 35 percent of new cars and light trucks to have zero emissions by 2026. Sixty-eight percent must reach that goal by 2030.
Power Grids and Demand

There are ramifications to the gas-powered ban. One of these is the need to upgrade the power grid.

In the past, California residents have been plagued with planned rolling blackouts. Some of these were designed to cut the risk of wildfires. In high-risk areas, electric utilities are often preemptively shut off during windstorms, but many blackouts resulted from the strain on the power grid. Residents were asked to conserve energy.

California has experienced more outages in the last five years than any other state except Texas. On average, a California blackout lasted roughly 10 hours, with the longest lasting two and a half days.

Electric vehicles are dependent on the grid. If the power goes out, so does the car.
Cost of Upgrading California Power Grid

Preventative fire measures aside, California’s power grid will need to be upgraded to handle the increase in EV usage.

In 2021, analytics firm Kevala conducted a study for the California Public Advocates Office. Kevala found that without load management of other mitigation measures, system-level peak load would increase as much as 56 percent between 2025 and 2035.

This increase would mainly be due to EVs. Kevala estimated that upgrading the grid would cost $50 billion.

However, the California Public Advocates Office created a different number using a different model. They estimated the usage based on the addresses of all vehicles in California to predict where EV increased usage would likely occur. They then modeled the expected charging load.

The Public Advocates Office estimated the figure was $15–20 billion. But as a caveat, they said, “No single study or pair of studies, particularly this early in the electrification process, can definitively answer such a complex question as what the costs of distribution grid upgrades will be.”

The bottom line is that billions of dollars will need to be invested to upgrade the power grid to handle the additional strain of EVs.
Lack of Charging Stations

In 2022, at 14.3 million, California had more registered automobiles than any state nationwide. The overall number of registered motor vehicles was nearly 31.4 million. California also has the most new car sales. In 2022, new car sales amounted to $1,667,831 worth of vehicles.

With those million-plus potential EV sales, the need for charging stations will soar. Currently, there are approximately 51,000 public charging stations across the nation. As of March 2023, California has the most, with 14,040.

A report by the California Energy Commission shows that California needs 1.2 million electric vehicle chargers by 2030. This doesn’t take into the account the additional 157,000 chargers needed by 2030 for medium, heavy-duty and electric buses.

There are three types of chargers, and their cost ranges from $1,500 to $20,000. But that’s just for the equipment. There’s also the installation cost.

Regardless of which type of equipment is chosen, the installation can cost $100,000 to $200,000. These high-voltage items must have specialized electricians and laborers to install them.

Splitting the difference with $150,000 per charger, it would take roughly $180 billion to build the 1.2 million chargers needed to accommodate the 2035 mandate.
Banning Gas-Powered Vehicles Tax Revenue

With electric vehicles comes a decrease in gas consumption. Fuel taxes are a significant contributor to state transportation funds. It contributes 40 percent of funding. The majority of funding could disappear in the coming decades.

To replace lost revenue, many states have added fees to EV owners. California charges $100 annually for a zero-emissions vehicle. As of January 2021, this fee was indexed to the Consumer Price Index.
Economic Hardship on Middle and Lower Classes

The average EV costs $66,000. The Inflation Reduction Act EV tax credit of $7,500 can be written off when filing income taxes, but the consumer must still make the initial downpayment and finance. This could give them a hefty car payment, which not many may be able to afford.

In California, low-income individuals could be eligible for $9,500 in grants or rebates. If you take both discounts, it comes to a $49,000 vehicle. That’s still a big-ticket item for most middle to low-income Californians.

The high cost is because batteries are more expensive than internal combustion engines—a lithium battery for an EV costs between $5,000 and $20,000. And batteries are easy to damage and difficult to repair.
States Banning Gas Vehicles

But California isn’t the only state with this on its agenda. Nine states have also announced a restriction on new gas-powered vehicle sales. These states are:

    Connecticut
    Massachusetts
    Maryland
    New Jersey
    New York
    Oregon
    Rhode Island
    Washington

These states eight states are following the Advance Clean Cars II.

In 2022, the ninth state, Vermont, lawmakers required zero-emissions by 2030.
California and EV Economics

California is currently facing a $68 billion dollar deficit. Its debt for 2022 was $145.03 billion. That compares to the 2000 debt of $57.17.

Chris Hoene, head of the California Budget and Policy Center, blamed climate change for the state’s shortfall. This was because the state’s fires interfered with cash.

The goal with California is to reduce emissions to help prevent these climate issues.

However, the cost of converting the most populated state to EVs may not be feasible. Billions of dollars must be invested to upgrade the power grid and build chargers.

Manufacturers will need to drastically reduce prices to make it possible for middle America to afford EVs.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2024. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/economic-results-california-banning-gas-vehicles

[Kaspov]

E, no entanto, o bom velho carvão continua em franco crescimento:


«China's Coal Production Hit A New Record High In 2023

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Jan 18, 2024 - 08:30 AM


By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com


Higher power demand and efforts to boost energy security pushed China’s coal production to a record-high level in 2023, according to official statistics data published on Wednesday.

Chinese coal output rose by 2.9% year-over-year to 4.66 billion metric tons in 2023, per data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported by Reuters.

Coal imports also rose last year, as some domestic mining operations were suspended for some time in 2023 due to safety inspections and concerns.

Higher demand after the COVID restrictions were lifted and higher domestic coal prices led to record-high coal imports into China, which soared by 61.8% year-on-year to 474.42 million metric tons in 2023, data from the General Administration of Customs showed last week.

In the latter part of 2023, China ramped up coal and natural gas production, imports, and consumption as its electricity demand jumped in the second half and looks to hit a record-high winter peak demand.

Chinese authorities have been keen to avoid a repeat of the 2022 shortages and spiking prices and have instructed utilities and producers to maximize imports and output before the winter.   

China continues to rely on coal and coal-fired power generation to meet its growing power demand, and despite being the world's top investor in solar and wind capacity, it also plans a lot of new coal-fired electricity capacity.

During the first half of 2023 alone, China approved more than 50 GW of new coal power, Greenpeace said in a report this year. That's more than it did in all of 2021, the environmental campaign group said. 

China’s coal demand is expected to drop this year and plateau through 2026, and global demand is set to decline to 2026, “but China will have the last word,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Coal 2023 annual report.

The outlook for coal in China will be significantly affected in the coming years by the pace of its clean energy deployment, weather conditions, and structural shifts in the Chinese economy, according to the agency.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-coal-production-hit-new-record-high-2023

[Kaspov]

«Offshore Oil Is Booming With Vessel Markets Near All-Time High
By Alex Kimani - Jan 14, 2024, 6:00 PM CST

    Despite the recent bearishness, investors are still betting heavily on one corner of the market: offshore oil and gas.
    The Clarksons Offshore Index is projected to reach all-time high in 2024.
    Rig, OSV and Subsea markets are particularly robust, with oil and gas vessel rates now higher than 2014 levels in the majority of sectors/regions.

Join Our Community
Offshore drilling

The U.S. oil and gas sector has kicked off the new year on the backfoot with market sentiment as bearish as it was a year ago. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that demand pessimism is once again dominating, with traders worried that oil demand will weaken in the U.S. and Europe. Part of Wall Street is just as bearish, with analysts warning of a challenging risk/reward scenario for the sector in the near-term with a heightened risk of a mild recession approaching.

Despite the bearishness, investors are still betting heavily on one corner of the market: offshore oil and gas.

Full year 2023 data points released by Clarksons Research paints a picture of a sector in the pink of health, with robust growth across the board. Global offshore oil and gas markets posted impressive growth in 2023, with the proprietary Clarksons Offshore Index that tracks rig count as well as offshore support vessels (OSV) and subsea day rates climbing 27% to a multi-year high of 106 points.

Even better for the bulls, the Clarksons Offshore Index is projected to reach all-time high in 2024. Rig, OSV and Subsea markets are particularly robust, with oil and gas vessel rates now higher than 2014 levels in the majority of sectors/regions. Activity remains particularly strong in the Middle East, Brazil and West Africa.

The Clarksons report has revealed that high-spec jack-up awards of >$160,000/day are becoming increasingly common while ‘leading edge’ floater rates exceeded the $500,000/day mark in Q4 2023. Demand for OSV has continued growing, with the number of active units hitting 2,452 by end-23, up 26% since 2020. OSV utilization clocked in at 73%, while PSV utilization peaked at 78% in Q4. Clarkson’s OSV Rate Index climbed 30% to a 15-year high of 180 points at the end of 2023. OSVs are specially designed ships used for the logistical servicing of offshore platforms and subsea installations.
Related: Platts Survey: OPEC+ Raised Oil Output in December

Offshore crude production in 2023 clocked in at  25.5 MMbpd (27% of global oil output), up 3.0% y-o-y, while offshore gas production came in at 129 Bcfgd (32% of global gas supply), up 1.9% y-o-y.

Meanwhile, investment interest in the global offshore oil and gas sector remains high, with $116 billion in offshore oil and gas CAPEX reaching FID (Final Investment Decision), 49% higher than the 10-year average. Clarksons has predicted that global offshore oil and gas CAPEX will hit $125 billion in the current year.

Deepwater boom

With those kinds of numbers, it comes as little surprise that stocks of offshore oil and gas drillers and producers have been able to reverse their seven-year downturn and outperformed other oil and gas sub-sectors.

Deepwater drilling specialist, Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG), as well as Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE:DO), TechnipFMC Plc. (NYSE:FTI), Seadrill Ltd. (NYSE:SDRL), Noble Corporation Plc (NYSE:NE) and Oceaneering International Inc. (NYSE:OII) are all in the green over the past 12 months compared to a nearly -10% return by the energy sector’s favorite benchmark, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).

Of the leading deepwater operators, only Valaris Ltd (NYSE:VAL) is in the red after returning -6.1% over the timeframe. Hopefully, things might turn around for the company: in their respective post-earnings calls, Valaris and Diamond Offshore Drilling have reported that the global offshore drilling market is seeing rising day rates, longer contract durations and upstream customers trying to secure rigs years in advance.

"Supportive commodity prices and attractive breakevens for most offshore projects provide customers with the confidence to invest in long-cycle offshore projects," Valaris President and CEO Anton Dibowitz Dibowitz said on the earnings call.

Valaris says it expects 25-30 near-term contract opportunities for its deepwater floaters with expected duration of greater than one year.

The ongoing offshore boom is characterized by one notable trend:  a large increase in deepwater and ultra-deepwater drilling. Last year, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) kicked off ultra-deepwater exploratory drilling for oil and gas wherein it aims to drill a test borehole of up to 11,000 meters (36,089 feet), not far from Qatar’s world record of 12,289 meters (40,318 feet) for a petroleum well depth that was drilled in the Al Shaheen Oil Field in 2008.

Last year, Norway's Aker BP (NYSE:BP) (OTCQX:AKRBF) made an ultra-deepwater discovery at a total depth of 8,168 m, the longest exploration well drilled in offshore Norway.

 Wood Mackenzie has predicted that deepwater oil and gas production is set to increase by 60% by 2030, and contribute 8% of overall upstream production. Ultra-deepwater production is expected to continue growing at a blistering pace to account for half of all deepwater production by 2030.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Oil-Is-Booming-With-Vessel-Markets-Near-All-Time-High.html

[Kaspov]

Ainda a maravilhosa «transição energética»...   


«Porque é que os agricultores franceses estão a protestar?

Os agricultores em França, o maior produtor agrícola da UE, dizem que não estão a ser pagos o suficiente e que estão sufocados por uma regulamentação excessiva em matéria de protecção ambiental.

Reuters   

25 de Janeiro de 2024, 16:20

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Os agricultores franceses têm recorrido a bloqueios de estradas para protestar contra as pressões sobre os preços, os impostos e a regulamentação verde. A faixa diz "O nosso fim será a vossa fome" Reuters/YVES HERMAN

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Os agricultores franceses estão a bloquear estradas em todo o país para exigir que o governo tome medidas para resolver inúmeras queixas, à medida que os protestos no sector agrícola da União Europeia se espalham. Eis algumas das questões que motivaram o crescente movimento de protesto e como o governo poderia responder.
Porque é que os agricultores estão a protestar?

Os agricultores em França, o maior produtor agrícola da UE, dizem que não estão a ser pagos o suficiente e que estão sufocados por uma regulamentação excessiva em matéria de protecção ambiental.

Algumas das suas preocupações, como a concorrência de importações mais baratas e as regras ambientais, são partilhadas pelos produtores do resto da UE, enquanto outras, como as negociações sobre os preços dos alimentos, são mais específicas de França.
Qual é a questão dos custos?

Do ponto de vista financeiro, os agricultores argumentam que a pressão do governo e dos retalhistas para fazer baixar a inflação dos alimentos deixou muitos produtores incapazes de cobrir os elevados custos da energia, dos fertilizantes e dos transportes.

Um plano do governo para eliminar gradualmente uma redução fiscal para os agricultores sobre o gasóleo, como parte de uma política mais ampla de transição energética, também tem sido um ponto de polémica, num eco das tensões na Alemanha.
Importações alimentam protesto?

As grandes importações provenientes da Ucrânia, para as quais a UE renunciou a quotas e direitos desde a invasão russa, e as novas negociações para concluir um acordo comercial entre a UE e o bloco sul-americano Mercosul, alimentaram o descontentamento em relação à concorrência desleal nos sectores do açúcar, dos cereais e da carne.

As grandes importações são ressentidas pelo facto de pressionarem os preços europeus e não cumprirem as normas ambientais impostas aos agricultores da UE.
Quais são as queixas sobre ambiente e burocracia?

No que se refere ao ambiente, os agricultores discordam tanto das regras da UE em matéria de subsídios, como a exigência de deixar 4% das terras agrícolas em pousio, como daquilo que consideram ser a aplicação demasiado complicada da política da UE por parte da França, como a restauração de sebes e terras aráveis como habitat natural.

As políticas verdes são vistas como contraditórias com os objectivos de se tornar mais auto-suficiente na produção de alimentos e outros bens essenciais, à luz da invasão russa da Ucrânia.

As disputas em torno de projectos de irrigação, à medida que os recursos hídricos também se tornam um foco no debate sobre o clima, e as críticas sobre o bem-estar dos animais e a poluição na agricultura aumentaram os sentimentos de uma população agrícola francesa envelhecida, que se sente desconsiderada pela sociedade.
Que medidas poderia o Governo tomar?

O Governo, sob pressão para desanuviar a crise antes das eleições europeias de Junho e da feira agrícola anual de Paris, no próximo mês, adiou o projecto de lei sobre como atrair mais candidatos para a agricultura para acrescentar outras medidas.

O Governo prometeu simplificar os procedimentos para os agricultores. Isto poderá significar a redução dos tempos de espera para o pagamento de subsídios ou para a aprovação de projectos agrícolas, ou ainda a simplificação da burocracia e das auditorias relativas à conformidade ambiental.

O Governo poderá abandonar o seu plano de eliminação progressiva da isenção fiscal sobre o gasóleo, embora já tenha suavizado a medida, escalonando-a por vários anos e oferecendo-se para reinvestir os fundos na agricultura.

Algumas alterações teriam de ser aprovadas pela UE, como a alteração da regra relativa aos pousios, e os agricultores alertam para o facto de quaisquer concessões poderem chegar demasiado tarde para os planos de produção deste ano.

Tal como em crises agrícolas anteriores, o Governo poderá oferecer ajuda de emergência. Já prometeu fundos para os produtores de vinho atingidos pela queda do consumo e para os agricultores afectados pelas inundações no Norte e por uma doença do gado no Sul, mas poderá anunciar mais dinheiro e pagamentos mais rápidos.»


https://www.publico.pt/2024/01/25/azul/perguntaserespostas/agricultores-franceses-estao-protestar-2078052

[Kaspov]

+ problemas com o gás natural...


«Biden Set To Announce New LNG Export Ban After White House Met With Gen-Z Climate Warrior
Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jan 26, 2024 - 12:45 PM

Global warming warriors in the White House plan to announce a new strategy later today: freeze new export permits for liquified natural gas (LNG) until the Department of Energy (DoE) can figure out climate impacts.

In a statement released on the White House briefing website, President Biden said early Friday:

    My Administration is announcing today a Bidentemporary pause on pending decisions of Liquefied Natural Gas exports – with the exception of unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.

    During this period, we will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America's energy security, and our environment. This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.

Biden (or maybe his speech writers) justified the new strategy by hyping climate doom, indicating, "In every corner of the country and the world, people are suffering the devastating toll of climate change."

Furthermore, the president said, "Wildfires destroying whole neighborhoods and forcing families to leave their communities behind. Record temperatures affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans, especially the most vulnerable."

According to The New York Times, ahead of the decision, the Biden team met with Alex Haraus, a 25-year-old Colorado social media influencer who has led a social media campaign against LNG projects in the Gulf.

As a reminder,2023 saw U.S. seaborne crude exports averaged 4 million b/d, an all-time high and up 19% year on year.

"In volumetric terms, the story has been all about Europe this year," Reid I'Anson, senior commodity analyst at Kpler, told FreightWaves.

    “Europe continues to grow increasingly reliant on U.S. energy — not just LNG [liquefied natural gas] but across the board.”

Climate warriors in the Biden administration are walking a dangerous line ahead of the election to appease environmentalists. At the same time, this move could jeopardize LNG production and harm the economy and even national security.

Bloomberg warned:

    "The pause is set to at least temporarily stall projects in development, including Commonwealth LNG, Energy Transfer LP, and Venture Global LNG Inc. facilities planned in Louisiana."

And, of course, the president had to blame "MAGA Republicans" for "willfully denying the urgency of the climate crisis" and "condemning the American people to a dangerous future."

Biden also noted, "We will not cede to special interests."

Nearly three dozen oil and gas groups warned in a letter Wednesday to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm that Biden's move is a "major mistake":

We wonder how Europe will feel about their energy security... as Biden continues to pressure Putin (and blow up pipelines)?

Of course, there is always the other side of this - there is no actual restriction at all, currently approved LNG facilities will allow exports to double over the next few years and this 'pause' of 'new' approvals is merely a headline-grabbing bone thrown to the climate-kids in an effort to buy votes?

However, that short-term political gain comes at longer-term economic pain as the introduction of this uncertainty will - at the margin - reduce the energy industry's willingness to invest in future supply.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/biden-set-announce-lng-export-ban-appease-climate-warriors-ahead-election

[Kaspov]

Interessante:


«Strong Economic Data Boosts Bullish Sentiment in Oil Markets
By Michael Kern - Jan 26, 2024, 8:40 AM CST
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Bullish

The bullish case for oil prices was strengthened dramatically this week, with strong U.S. economic data helping to push Brent well past the $80 mark. 

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Friday, January 26, 2024

The stronger-than-expected performance of the US economy has boosted oil prices to their highest level this year, not many analysts were expecting a 3.3% GDP growth in Q4. Continuous Houthi strikes in the Red Sea and surging product freight rates have added impetus to the bullish cause, and even China’s timid reaching out to Iran to rein in the Yemeni attacks failed to scale back geopolitical tensions. With Brent breaking through the $80 per barrel threshold and reaching $82 per barrel, prices cleared an important psychological barrier.

White House Asks China to Help with Houthis. According to the Financial Times, the White House has asked China to help rein Houthi rebels attacking commercial tankers in the Red Sea as two Maersk container ships were targeted this week despite US warship escorts.

TMX Pipeline Eyes April Start. Canada’s $23 billion Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline is set to begin line fill by the end of this quarter, with first commercial flows starting from April and ramping up to full capacity by December, easing oil sands’ huge double-digit discounts.

UAE Mulls African Oil Expansion. The government of Uganda has chosen an investment firm from the UAE, led by a member of the Dubai royal family, to build a 60,000 b/d refinery in the country after a deal with an international consortium fell apart in 2023.

UK Waits for World’s Most Expensive Nuclear Plant. French nuclear developer EDF announced that the construction of the UK’s Hinkley Point C nuclear plant will cost an extra $13 billion, taking the total to $46 billion, and will be delayed by several years to at least 2029.

US Refiners Seek Limits to Fuel Credit Market. US oil refiners have asked the Biden administration to restrict participation in the US renewable fuel credit program (RINs), claiming the current EPA mechanisms allow any person to participate, paving the way for manipulation.

Consolidation Extends into US Midstream Market. US fuel distributor Sunoco (NYSE:SUN) agreed to buy pipeline and terminal operator NuStar Energy in an all-equity deal for $7.3 billion, opening up the logistics and infrastructure segment for the Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) subsidiary. 

Defying Peers, Chevron Sees A Future in Nigeria. As European peers such as Shell are leaving Nigeria, US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) unveiled a plan to expand its presence in the African country, signing a 20-year renewal on three deepwater leases and acquiring a stake in the OPL 215 block.

Clean Tanker Freight Hits 4-Year Highs. Freight rates for oil product tankers to Europe hit their highest level since April 2020, with a Persian Gulf-UK Continent voyage via the Cape of Good Hope costing 8.25 million now, up 60% compared to the conventional Suez Canal route.

Rosneft Refinery Hit by Ukrainian Drones. Less than a week after Ukrainian drones hit a Novatek naphtha tank farm in Ust Luga, the vacuum distillation unit of Rosneft’s (MCX:ROSN) 240,000 b/d Tuapse oil refinery was struck in a new attack, causing a fire.

Copper Starts to Lose Investment Appeal. Hedge fund positioning on copper has swung from a vast net long in early January to the largest net short since mid-2022, to the tune of 25,000 contracts, with investors wary of China’s ailing manufacturing activity and European recession.

Equinor and BP Swap NY Wind Farms. European oil majors BP (NYSE:BP) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) are splitting their New York wind farm joint venture, with each assuming full control of their respective wind farms, resulting in a $600 million pre-tax impairment for BP.

Fortescue Hits the Wall in China. Two iron ore cargoes supplied by Fortescue (ASX:FMG) to China have been denied customs clearance due to an ongoing probe, just as the Australian miner is trying to renegotiate a 2024 procurement deal with the state-run iron ore buyer CMRG.

Chinese Jet Fuel Demand to Hit New Highs. Chinese jet fuel demand is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels over the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, hitting 860,000 b/d, as Chinese travelers are expected to make 80 million domestic flights over that period.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Strong-Economic-Data-Boosts-Bullish-Sentiment-in-Oil-Markets.html

[Kaspov]

Ainda acerca dos inventários:


«U.S. Product Inventory Builds Overshadow Large Crude Draw
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 03, 2024, 3:54 PM CST

Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 7.418 million barrels for the week ending December 29, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts predicted a draw of 2.967 million barrels. The API reported  a 1.837-million-barrel build in crude inventories in the week prior.

API data shows a net build in crude oil inventories in the United States of just over 13 million barrels throughout 2023.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 1.1 million barrels. Inventories are now at 354.4 million barrels, with total purchases for the SPR totaling more than 7 million barrels since the Biden Administration began its buyback program.

Oil prices were trading up ahead of API data release. At 3:37 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up 3.53% at $78.57—an decrease of just over $2 per barrel compared to where it was this same time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was trading up on the day by 3.82%, at $73.07–a decrease of just under $2 per barrel compared to this time last week.

Gasoline inventories rose this week by 6.913 million barrels, after falling by 480,000-barrel increase in the week prior. As of last week, gasoline inventories are now 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate inventories also rose this week, with a gain of 6.686 million barrels, after rising by 270,000 million barrels in the week prior. Distillates are roughly 9% below the five-year average.

Cushing inventories rose by 765,000 barrels, after rising by 1.57 million barrels in the previous week.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Product-Inventory-Builds-Overshadow-Crude-Draw.html