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Autor Tópico: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal  (Lida 296492 vezes)

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2020 em: 2024-02-01 04:28:30 »
«Fresh Sanctions Could Seriously Curtail Iran’s Surging Oil Exports

By Alex Kimani - Jan 31, 2024, 7:00 PM CST

    On Monday, news emerged that three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan, while more than 40 other soldiers were injured following a drone attack on a U.S. military base near the Syrian border.
    The U.S. and its European allies have wasted no time condemning Iran for the attack and are mulling boosting sanctions on the country due to Tehran's unabashed support for militant groups in the region
    StanChart says that, following the attack, there’s a big probability of a significant change in the policy dynamic between the U.S. and Iran, and in particular Iran’s surging oil production is likely to be in the crosshairs.

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Last year, we reported that the Biden administration has been increasingly cozying up to Iran as the U.S. and its allies hoped to strike a new nuclear deal with Tehran after the Trump administration scuttled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal of 2015. Following the imposition of severe sanctions by Washington, Iranian oil production tumbled from 3.8 million barrels per day in early 2018 to less than 2 mb/d in late 2020; however, production has surged under Biden to 3.2 mb/d.

Since the start of the current escalation in the Middle East, experts have debated whether the status quo with Iran is going to be maintained or the West will attempt to roll the clock back to early 2022 or even to late 2020. The latest attacks on U.S. troops in the region have all but removed those doubts.

On Monday, news emerged that three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan, while more than 40 other soldiers were injured following a drone attack on a U.S. military base near the Syrian border. U.S. forces are suspected to have mistaken the enemy drone for an American one and let it pass through unchallenged.

The U.S. and its European allies have wasted no time condemning Iran for the attack and are mulling boosting sanctions on the country due to Tehran's unabashed support for militant groups in the region, particularly its support for Houthi forces. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed that the West’s response to the attack will be “multi-levelled, come in stages, and be sustained over time”.

"Following the threats posed by the Islamic Republic in the region, especially its support for the Houthis and proxy groups in Iraq in recent months, which led to the formation of an international coalition in the Red Sea, recently, the United States and some Western countries have initiated discussions to intensify sanctions against Iran,” a diplomatic source told Iran International.
Related: Lackluster Economic Data Out of China Puts Oil Prices Under Pressure

As commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have observed, the markets only issued a muted response to the attacks with oil prices pulling back after the initial spike. StanChart has speculated that the market is assuming the U.S. will only issue a single layer of response over a short period that will be limited to Iraq and Syria, but is not pricing in a response that could be extended over time.

StanChart says that, following the attack, there’s a big probability of a significant change in the policy dynamic between the U.S. and Iran, and in particular Iran’s surging oil production is likely to be in the crosshairs.

The Biden administration is likely to be further motivated to take stern action on Iran due to the country’s continued violation of the terms of the JCPOA agreement. Iran has not only lifted the cap on its stockpile of uranium to 18 times the level permitted by JCPOA but has also increased its enrichment activities to 60%, far above the 3.67% permitted level. A year ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the discovery of particles of uranium enriched to 83.7%.

The U.S. as well as allies the UK, France and Germany (commonly referred to as the E3) have pointed out there’s no credible civilian justification for Iran’s nuclear programme. Last September,  E3 reported they are “committed to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through the snapback process if necessary”.

Market Weakness Not Justified By Fundamentals

Previously, StanChart has argued that the weak oil price action is not justified by oil fundamentals, which remain strong. The commodity analysts have pointed out that the bearish sentiment is mainly being driven by the notion that demand growth has failed to meet Wall Street’s expectations, a notion it has dispelled using actual data. Last year, oil demand at the end of the year surpassed  January 2023 forecasts; forecast for the current year by the EIA estimate is 881kb/d higher, the IEA estimate is 380 kb/d higher while StanChart’s is 819 kb/d higher.

Standard Chartered has reiterated its earlier position that oil markets are heavily discounting geopolitical risks due to a lack of clear understanding about seasonality. In StanChart’s view, the current oversupply in January is primarily due to seasonality but has predicted the markets will gradually tighten as the months roll on–again, due to seasonality.

According to the experts, the current global crude inventory build of 1.17 mb/d will flip to a draw of 1.40 mb/d in February, with the inventory draw widening to  1.48 mb/d in March, thanks in large part to seasonal demand recovery. StanChart says the expected inventory draws, coupled with the seasonal upswing in demand, could potentially trigger a significant oil price rally.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fresh-Sanctions-Could-Seriously-Curtail-Irans-Surging-Oil-Exports.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2021 em: 2024-02-01 04:30:33 »
Os inventários estão num nível baixo...


«U.S. Crude Oil Could Be Ripe for A Short Squeeze

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 29, 2024, 7:00 PM CST

    Crude oil inventories at Cushing have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year in over a decade.
    The depleting stocks at Cushing and the bearish sentiment on the oil market, especially the recent more negative positioning in WTI Crude, could lead to high prices in the near term.
    In the three weeks to January 19, inventories at Cushing fell by more than 5 million barrels.

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U.S. Crude Oil Could Be Ripe for A Short Squeeze

Crude oil inventories at Cushing have dropped to their lowest level for this time of year in over a decade, suggesting that a short squeeze could be coming for the bearish portfolio managers who have amassed a lot of short positions in U.S. crude oil futures.

The falling stocks at the hub providing the physical delivery mechanism for the NYMEX WTI futures contract may have already started to unnerve traders who had turned extremely bearish on U.S. WTI Crude by the middle of January.   

But in the latest reporting week to January 23, money managers bought a lot of WTI contracts and liquidated a lot of shorts, slashing their bearish bets on WTI by the most in nine months.

The depleting stocks at Cushing and the bearish sentiment on the oil market, especially the recent more negative positioning in WTI Crude, could lead to high prices in the near term, Reuters market analyst John Kemp argues.

In the week to January 19, crude oil stocks at Cushing – the designated delivery point for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts – fell to just 30.1 million barrels, down by 2 million barrels from the previous week, and down by 15.8% from one year ago, data from the latest EIA inventory report showed.

The level of Cushing stocks was at its lowest for this time of year in over a decade, Reuters’ Kemp notes.

In the three weeks to January 19, inventories at Cushing fell by more than 5 million barrels, as EIA’s weekly petroleum status reports have shown consistently throughout this month.

At the same time, as of January 16, traders continued to sell West Texas Intermediate futures in anticipation of further strong production growth. Hedge funds and other institutional traders sold the equivalent of 24 million barrels of U.S. crude in the week to January 16, Kemp reported last week. This compared with buying in Brent Crude, the international benchmark, equivalent to 18 million barrels, Kemp noted about the data compiled from the exchanges.

However, the latest traders’ commitments data, comprising the following week to January 23, showed a reversal of the bearish sentiment in U.S. crude futures.

Money managers slashed their short positions in WTI by a massive 33,649 lots, per the latest data compiled by Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen.

The gross short was 78,598 lots after the largest cut in shorts since April 2023.

At the same, hedge funds and other money managers boosted their longs, and the net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – jumped by 49% to 134,140 lots— the highest in 11 weeks.

The long-to-short ratio was 2.7:1, up from just 1.26:1 as of January 16—a sign that traders have moved to slash a lot of their bearish bets.

WTI Crude was the best-performing commodity last week, receiving a boost from the technical break above $75.50, and $80.50 in Brent, Saxo Bank’s Hansen wrote in a weekly commodity report on Friday.

The move forced investors “to rethink a strategy which for several weeks had seen them switch their long exposure to Brent away from WTI in the belief that production growth will continue to pressure prices in the United States while conflict in the Middle East will provide some support for prices in Europe and Asia.”

However, the low Cushing inventories and the slashed shorts in the most recent reporting week to January 23 suggest that a short squeeze in the U.S. WTI crude futures may have already begun.

Still, oil prices are not expected to rally much above current levels, according to Saxo Bank.

“We maintain the view that, unless a serious supply disruption occurs in the Middle East, both WTI and Brent will likely remain range bound around $75 in WTI and $80 in Brent with no single trigger being strong enough to change the dynamics of a market that has divided its focus between growth worries, not least in China and the USA, as well as rising non-OPEC+ production on one hand and OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risks on the other,” Hansen wrote. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/US-Crude-Oil-Could-Be-Ripe-for-A-Short-Squeeze.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2022 em: 2024-02-01 04:35:27 »
Parece já haver excesso de lítio (Li)...


«Why Lithium Prices Crashed by 80%

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 25, 2024, 6:00 PM CST


    Demand growth has slowed while stockpiles of battery metals have increased, putting downward pressure on lithium prices.
    Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: lithium prices crashed last year by over 80% to the lowest level since 2020, at $13,200 per ton.
    In China alone, there appears to have been a surplus of over 200 GWh of lithium-ion batteries last year.

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Lithium carbonate

Slowing growth in electric vehicle sales, including in the top EV market, China, and a market oversupply in battery metals sent lithium prices crashing by 80% in the past year, prompting lithium miners to pause and scale back expansion projects.   

China's EV sales continued to grow last year but fell short of expectations. On the other hand, raw material providers, which had rushed to mine lithium in the past two years to meet growing demand, have outproduced the current demand. As a result, lithium prices crashed last year by over 80% to the lowest level since 2020, at $13,200 per ton, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says, as carried by the Financial Times.

Lithium Oversupply

As miners accelerated lithium production in 2022, the market swung from a supply deficit in 2022 to a surplus in 2023. Add to this slower Chinese EV sales than in previous years, and the perfect storm on the lithium market was created—too much supply, faltering demand.

The lithium supply response has charged ahead of demand, price reporting agency Fastmarkets said in a report this week.

"Market participants expect downstream lithium demand to remain relatively weak and with no imminent concerns about supply shortages, we forecast a tentatively balanced market in 2024," according to Fastmarkets.

Some restocking could occur in the second quarter of 2024, leading to a mild recovery in lithium prices, but they are set to "generally trend down for the second half of the year," Fastmarkets' analysts noted.

In December, a Chinese lithium seller told Fastmarkets,

"Although we had some sales to the end consumers, the volume is very small. Consumer demand was very thin."

EV Growth Slows

Demand growth has slowed while stockpiles of battery metals have increased, putting downward pressure on lithium prices.

In China, the world's top electric vehicle market, EV penetration has continued to grow, but China's retail EV sales volume growth has fallen considerably, according to Goldman Sachs.

Chinese EV sales grew by 1.5 million units between January and October 2023, compared to 2.3 million unit sales in the same period of 2022, "pointing towards a normalisation in supply chains," Goldman Sachs's research analysts wrote in a note at the end of November.
Related: Red Sea Disruptions Force Saudi Aramco to Slash Prices

"Most battery materials and components are seeing a softening in their balance as our batteries analysts note while 'greenflation' concerns are now abating. The accelerated supply expansion and battery capex surge from past 18 months has pushed China's battery balance into a surplus, which in turn has weighed on restocking demand for lithium," the investment bank said.

"The supply chain normalisation combined with phase-out of national subsidies in China has also weighed on the pace of growth of EV demand," according to Goldman's analysts.

"[T]he softening in the lithium market has become incrementally apparent with the slowdown in demand growth now in direct contrast with growing global lithium supply."

In China alone, there appears to have been a surplus of over 200 GWh of lithium-ion batteries last year, Wood Mackenzie said in a 2024 outlook on EV and battery supply chains.

"Automakers are likely sitting on secured cell supply for EV sales that failed to materialise," WoodMac's analysts wrote.

Lithium Miners Scramble to Withstand the Price Crash

As a result of oversupply, weaker EV demand growth, and crashing prices, some of the biggest lithium miners have started to take measures to mitigate the impact on profitability. 

Albemarle, one of the world's top lithium producers, said last week it was re-phasing larger projects, reducing capital expenditures, deferring some spending, and planning job cuts, to "optimize its cost structure in response to changing end-market conditions, particularly in the lithium value chain."

Albemarle will prioritize permitting activities at the Kings Mountain spodumene resource and defer spending at the Richburg mega-flex lithium conversion facility, as well as defer investment for the Albemarle Technology Park in North Carolina and limit sustaining capital spending to the most critical health, safety, environmental, and site maintenance projects.?

"The company is also pursuing actions to optimize its cost structure, reducing costs by approximately $95 million annually, primarily related to sales, general, and administrative expenses, including a reduction in headcount and lower spending on contracted services," Albemarle said.

Pure-play lithium company Pilbara Minerals warned that it is "unlikely that a dividend will be paid for the half-year ended 31 December 2023," as the company looks to further preserve its balance sheet position.

Pilbara's estimated realized sales price for spodumene concentrate in the December quarter was down by 50% on the prior quarter.

Core Lithium announced on Wednesday a temporary suspension of open pit mining operations to preserve cash.

Liontown Resources said on Monday it had initiated a review of the planned expansion and associated ramp-up of Kathleen Valley to preserve capital and reduce the near-term funding requirements of the project.

"The recent material decline in spodumene prices has triggered significant reductions in short and medium-term lithium price forecasts," said Liontown Resources, which also announced it had failed to finalize a previously agreed US $500 million (AUS$760 million) debt funding package.

The finalization of the debt package "has been impacted by recent reductions in the independent forecast pricing for spodumene upon which the lenders' credit approvals were based," said the company, whose shareholders include mining billionaire Gina Rinehart, Australia's richest person.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Lithium-Prices-Crashed-by-80.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2023 em: 2024-02-01 04:37:21 »
Uma imagem do Li flutuando em óleo:

Bildbeschreibung: Lithium unter Paraffinöl Quelle: eigenes Foto Fotograf: Tomihahndorf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#/media/File:Lithium_paraffin.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium
« Última modificação: 2024-02-01 04:37:55 por Kaspov »
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« Responder #2024 em: 2024-02-03 03:18:50 »
Ainda as políticas "climáticas"...


«Scientific Alarmism Drives DoD Climate Policy

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Feb 03, 2024 - 02:20 AM


Authored by Scott Sturman and Doug Goodman via The Epoch Times,

Executive Order 14057 justifies the Department of Defense’s (DOD) Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions as necessary to counteract the existential threat of climate change. The program’s comprehensive and prohibitively expensive initiative proposes to transform the operational military by achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2045, purportedly on firmly established “science-based” targets that are validated by computer models and consensus within the scientific community.

The plan’s ambitious yet unrealistic goals, which are presented as an alarmist ultimatum, ignore the foundational principles of physics and battle-proven lessons of military history.

The Plan establishes emission objectives by determining “alignment with the scale of reductions required to limit global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.” These emission reduction targets come directly from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Net-Zero Paris Climate Accord. The IPCC is not a science based organization that conducts its own research but rather a governmental policy organization whose members are countries, not scientists, and whose representatives are bureaucrats who develop and promote international climate policy. The IPCC sponsors and filters climate science research generated from outside organizations to support its primary charter of establishing the man made causes and influences on climate change.

The narrative that the earth’s climate balances precariously on the brink of catastrophe and merits the distinction of a national security priority is constantly presented to the public in familiar, apocalyptic terms. President Biden warns that global warming is the greatest threat to national security. DOD Secretary Austin alerts the public of existential climate threats, including an ice-free Arctic Ocean, although as of January 2023 the Arctic sea ice pack is at its highest since 2003. The DOD and high ranking officials from the navy, army, and air force proclaim that it is incumbent upon the armed services to implement net zero without delay to avert a worldwide catastrophe. Despite the incessant fearmongering, no one appears to pause and consider that the DOD produces only 1 percent of the United State’s CO2 emissions, which in turn is responsible for 13 percent of the world’s total. Even if the DOD achieves net zero, eliminating 0.13 percent of the world’s CO2 output would not detectably reduce global temperatures.

The McKinsey Report details the enormous costs and disruption to society to attain net zero and concedes there is only an even chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and it is far from certain whether the world will be able to keep the temperature increase to that level. The transition will require a fundamental change to the world’s economy, costing an estimated $6 trillion per year for the next 30 years. This translates to $11,000 per year for every American until 2050 for a result that cannot be ensured. Most of the sacrifice will come from the Third World, where 1/3-1/2 of GDP will be required to achieve net zero, but at a further cost of killing millions and plunging more millions into extreme poverty and starvation. Bjorn Lomborg warns that a zero fossil fuel solution is expensive, leads to misery and an impoverishment of the planet, and will fail to mitigate temperature elevation appreciably.

The hasty evolution to net zero comes at a prohibitive price, and its adherents concoct doomsday scenarios that demand and ennoble mass sacrifice. Depicting a world in complete environmental collapse due to the effects of fossil fuels promotes a theme intended to instill panic. The DOD embellishes adverse weather-related and environmental events but fails to place them in context or provide contrary interpretations. The extent and history of glacial retreat, sea level rise, desertification, forest fires, heat waves, death due to heat as opposed to cold, hurricanes, and tornados are exaggerated and depicted in emotional terms to legitimize drastic action. These contentions have been examined extensively, using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) and the IPCC’s own data, and refute the hypothesis that there is a climate crisis based on these criteria. The number and intensity of severe climate events have diminished, and for those that occur, poor countries lack the resources to deal with natural disasters, while wealthier societies are able to better mitigate structural damage and human injury.

Computer modeling, a useful tool for conceptualization, forms the heart of climate science. The technique, however, is unable to prove hypotheses and has been wildly inaccurate since its inception. Climate science is a complex subject of interacting variables acting over time cycles that differ by order of magnitudes from the depths of the oceans to the upper stratosphere that are in turn affected by orbital mechanics and solar perturbations. The authenticity of ground-based temperature readings, the raison d’être of climate activists, raises alarm about the IPCC’s most fundamental assessments, since the underestimation of the heat island effect may distort the temperature anomaly data by up to 40 percent.

The major problem with computer models is the resolution and averaging required to make the models computable. The atmosphere is divided into volumes with horizontal grid lengths of tens of kilometers within which parameters like temperature, pressure, and density are averaged to represent the entire volume. Atmospheric processes like cloud physics and turbulence occur at scales well below the resolution of these cells, which compels modelers to estimate the values and effects of these processes. These guesses invariably favor global warming and the deleterious effects of CO2.

Since data collection points rarely align with the grid points required by the numerical models, discrepancies of hundred of kilometers exist, which modelers homogenize to allow the data to fit the grid. This leads to false adjustments and manipulations of the real data. Computational models are inherently unstable and diverge from physical reality. At distances below the grid scale, perturbations multiply and a butterfly effect ensues. Modelers are forced constantly to realign or reset the initial conditions, which mask the deviations and give the illusion that the models accurately predict observed conditions.

DOD officials defend net-zero defense prioritization by claiming that scientific consensus and sham peer reviewed studies validate this contention. Peer review has degenerated into a process that favors a regression to the mean, and has become a form of consensus. The original 97 percent consensus claim from Cook in 2013 that humans are the major cause of global warming that will result in catastrophic climate events has been widely discredited. Investigators point out that the number is closer to 1.6 percent, but the original, inaccurate claim of near-universal consensus, advanced by Barack Obama and John Kerry, remains a favored technique of politicians to inject ideology into science.

John Clauser won the Nobel Prize in physics for his work with particle entanglement and serves as an example that the most distinguished and competent scientists are not immune from rebuke for challenging the climate change narrative. Dr. Clauser stated publicly that there is no climate emergency and the dangerous corruption of science threatens the world economy and welfare of billions of people. Mainstream media outlets allied to climate science activism predictably marginalized the distinguished physicist with ad hominem attacks and inferred that only bona fide climate scientists like Dr. Michael Mann, the originator of the widely debunked hockey stick shaped temperature acceleration profile, are qualified to speak on the subject.

The DOD plan to reduce greenhouse emissions makes no mention of the stabilizing benefits of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in terms of food production or the weak correlation between temperature and CO2 levels over the last 570 millions years. There has been a 20 percent increase in the world’s biomass over the past 40 years, and CO2 is responsible for 70 percent of this benefit. Some of the world’s most unstable regions have achieved an element of food security, as exuberant plant life has reversed desertification and conferred a degree of economic stability—a benefit for developing more accurate military contingencies.

A nation’s military priorities must optimize its access to natural resources, develop war plans that allow for flexibility and maximum projection of power, and to conclude that one’s enemies will not be concerned with carbon footprints when it comes to surviving and winning a major military conflict. No commander purposely informs potential enemies that the armed forces will be restricted for decades to specific, unproven technologies and untested operational strategies that are established solely to comply with climate change dogma. Future and present adversaries are under no such constraints and will devote resources predicated on the best opportunity for success. Virtue signaling climate scientists and their dutiful DOD disciples, whose premises are based on computer modeling, enact policies that weaken the military and serve as classic examples of those who hijack science to advance political agendas.

From RealClearWire»


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/scientific-alarmism-drives-dod-climate-policy
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« Responder #2025 em: 2024-02-05 04:53:37 »
Um debate muito interessante, com o ilustre Adam Rozencwajg:


Debate On "Peak Cheap Oil": Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDLeAC8OeJY
« Última modificação: 2024-02-05 16:33:19 por Kaspov »
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2026 em: 2024-02-05 19:48:24 »
Irá crescer significativamente a produção brasileira??...   :-\


«Opinião
Lula mira grandes empresas

O petróleo já é o terceiro produto exportado pelo Brasil logo após a soja e o minério de ferro

Avatar de Aristóteles Drummond

Aristóteles Drummond

4 de Fevereiro 2024

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16:42

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O Presidente Lula da Silva está influindo diretamente na gestão das empresas de maior porte do país. A Petrobras liberou o término do projeto de uma grande refinaria em Pernambuco, onde a metade em operação custou cinco vezes mais do que o projeto inteiro e foi alvo de muita corrupção. A refinaria seria licitada para venda. Na retomada das obras, compareceu e afirmou que os EUA não queriam a obra, mas ele faria.
O Brasil importa um terço do gasóleo que consome, mas o petróleo vem ganhando importância na economia por a produção nacional atual ser a nona do mundo, com três milhões e meio de barris por dia.
Em dois a três anos, pode chegar a cinco milhões.
O petróleo já é o terceiro produto exportado pelo Brasil logo após a soja e o minério de ferro. Mas na Vale, uma das maiores mineradoras do mundo, que é privatizada, Lula insistiu em nomear o presidente, que seria o seu ex-ministro Guido Mantega, envolvido em muitos escândalos dos governos anteriores. A reação foi grande e ele desistiu.

 VARIEDADES

 • No Rio de Janeiro, não se escapa de ladrões nem depois de morto. O escritor Nelson Rodrigues teve seu busto, de 45 quilos, de bronze, roubado de sua sepultura no Cemitério São João Batista. Já os óculos de Carlos Drummond de Andrade, na calçada de Copacabana, já foram roubados mais de dez vezes.

• A bancada conservadora no Parlamento quer alterar as normas que beneficiam os presidiários. No Brasil, tem a ‘visita íntima’ e saídas nas festas como o Natal, em que cerca de 15% não regressam. Outra benesse é que, além dos custos de um presidiário, a família recebe um salário-mínimo. Já a bancada de esquerda quer tornar obrigatória a câmara nos uniformes dos policiais ‘para evitar abusos’. Embora os policiais tenham baixas nos confrontos, a bancada estás preocupada ‘com a letalidade de suspeitos’. A maioria dos ‘suspeitos’ armados. Outra novidade do novo ministro da Justiça, e reformado da Suprema Corte, Ricardo Lewandowski, seria transferir os presos em tratamento psiquiátrico para prisão domiciliar.

• O Governo lançou o seu projeto de desindustrialização com velhas e fracassadas receitas de reserva de mercado. Ao invés de facilitar investimentos em tecnologia e leis laborais sensatas, preferiu privilegiar o produto nacional nas compras do setor público, sem a contrapartida de investimentos em qualidade e produtividade.

• Apesar do discurso ambientalista do Presidente Lula da Silva, no seu primeiro ano de Governo, as queimadas na Amazónia tiveram um aumento de 6%. E os índios Yanomamis, no norte do país, continuam com dificuldades na saúde e na alimentação. Os militares tiveram de ser chamados para fornecer alimentos e assistência médica. A questão é complexa e nos 14 anos de governos do PT nada se fez na área.

• Faleceu em São Paulo o ex-deputado Cunha Bueno, líder monárquico e autor da inclusão da monarquia parlamentar no plebiscito de 1993.

• A comunidade israelita brasileira está preocupada com as posições de políticos ligados aos partidos de esquerda em relação à guerra. O ex-deputado e guerrilheiro José Genuíno, irmão do líder do governo na Câmara dos deputados, defende boicote a produtos e lojas de judeus. E o silêncio de judeus ligados ao Governo, como os senadores Jacques Wagner e Davi Alcolumbre, que não comentam a posição brasileira ao endossar a denúncia da África do Sul, que acusa Israel de genocídio, tem sido cobrado.

• O Brasil tem o maior custo do Judiciário do mundo com 1,6 por cento do PIB, três vezes mais do que a média mundial. Os tribunais tem os gabinetes de cada Desembargador de 120 metros quadrados, além de automóvel blindado os sete dias da semana.

• Policiamento durante o Carnaval vai ser severo. Aliás, o governador de Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, é o mais popular do Brasil. O motivo é uma política de segurança pública dura em relação aos infratores e de apoio aos policiais.

• O ano no Brasil realmente começa na segunda-feira após o carnaval!»


https://sol.sapo.pt/2024/02/04/lula-mira-grandes-empresas/
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« Responder #2027 em: 2024-02-06 12:42:32 »
«Biden Makes Coal Great Again As Exports Soar To India

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Tuesday, Feb 06, 2024 - 11:55 AM

US thermal coal exporters recorded more than $5 billion in overseas sales in 2023, shipping upwards of 32.5 million metric tons of the high-polluting power fuel, according to Reuters, citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. These coal export earnings were the second highest since 2017, trailing only behind 2022's $5.7 billion. This comes as US utility coal usage for electricity generation tumbles to the lowest in this century.

Reuters points out diverging trends between sliding domestic coal use at power plants and a surge in coal exports. They called this "hypocrisy, given the country's ambitions to become a global leader in energy transition and pollution reduction efforts."

In 2023, India was the largest destination for US coal shipments, with 11.8 million tons delivered, accounting for 36.3% of total US thermal exports. Kpler data showed that volume was up 130% from 2022, and the south Asian nation is the world's largest coal producer and consumer after China.

"India is expected to remain a keen buyer of international coal as the country's domestic reserves are being depleted and power firms rely on coal for about 75% of India's electricity," Reuters said.

This comes as major US companies, such as Apple, have been shifting manufacturing supply chains from China to India - a move called 'friendshoring'.

In a separate report, Reuters pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government increased coal power generation in 2023 by 11.3%, the fastest pace in at least five years.

    "In the next 18 months, about 19,600 MW (megawatts of) capacity is likely to be commissioned," the power ministry said late last week.

Many of these companies, who have adopted woke green policies, will be or have already produced goods in India on a grid heavily reliant on coal.

Other top export destinations for US coal last year include The Netherlands (13.4% of total), Egypt (8.5%), Morocco (6.7%) and Japan (6.0%).

According to the US Energy Information Administration, a record 17% of total US coal production was exported, compared to around 12.5% in 2017.

To sum up, Biden is 'making coal great again' with surging exports. At the same time, US corporations flock to India from China to build products on coal-powered grids while virtue signaling back in the States how they're saving the planet by planting trees and buying carbon credits.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/biden-makes-coal-great-again-exports-soar-india
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2028 em: 2024-02-07 23:48:17 »
Acerca dos famosos EV's:


«Biden Admin Classifies Martha's Vineyard And Other Elite Enclaves 'Low-Income' To Push EV Charger Subsidies

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Wednesday, Feb 07, 2024 - 03:50 AM


Some of the wealthiest liberal enclaves in the country are being classified by the Biden administration as "low-income" in order to qualify for an electric vehicle (EV) charger subsidy program contained within the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Daily Caller reports.

The locales includes Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts, as well as Montauk and Fishers Island in New York. Yes, the same Martha's Vineyard that freaked out over a few migrants on their hallowed soil.

    The administration’s EV charger tax credit program — made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), President Joe Biden’s signature climate bill — is specifically designed to route subsidies to “low-income” or “non-urban” areas of the country. The “low-income” emphasis for eligibility aligns in spirit with the Biden administration’s wider pursuit of so-called “environmental justice,” which is effectively the combination of social justice ideology and green policy.

    Numerous elite hangouts and locales — including Montauk and Fishers Island in New York, and parts of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket in Massachusetts — are among the areas that the administration has classified as “low-income” and eligible for receipt of EV charger subsidies, according to a Daily Caller News Foundation analysis of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) interactive eligibility map.

The nationwide charging network is a central plank of the Biden administration's EV agenda. While plenty of charging stations are located in wealthy areas (where people can afford EVs), the IRA was supposed to blunt the costs of charger construction in non-urban, less wealthy areas of the country that would be less likely to implement them on their own.

"This tax credit provides up to 30% off the cost of the charger to individuals and businesses in low-income communities and non-urban areas, making it more affordable to install EV charging infrastructure and increasing access to EV charging in underserved communities," the White House boasted on Jan. 19.

In order to meet the definition of "low-income," a given area must have a poverty rate of 20% or more, or, if the median family income is below 80% of the median family income in the wider metropolitan area, or if a given Census tract isn't attached to any specific metro, according to section 45D(e) of IRS code, the Caller reports.

But the latter definition for a "low-income" area has enabled many areas, according to the report.

    For example, nearly half of the landmass of Nantucket Island, one of the ritziest summer vacation destinations favored by New England’s elite, is eligible for EV charger subsidies, according to the DOE’s interactive eligibility map.

    The Vineyard Haven area of Martha’s Vineyard, another destination frequented by New England’s upper crust, is also eligible as a “low-income” area, according to the DOE’s map. For context, many of the homes in the covered area are valued at well over $1 million, with several properties valued between about $2 million and $5 million. Former President Barack Obama also owns a massive $11.7 million estate on the island.

    Large pockets of Cape Cod, another pricey locale, are also eligible for “low income” EV subsidies. This includes Hyannis, the longtime home base of the Kennedy political dynasty, and Great Island, which features numerous multi-million dollar properties. -Daily Caller

Other wealthy areas which can take advantage of this loophole include a three block zone in New York City's Upper East Side, Rehoboth Beach, Delaware (a few miles from Joe Biden's 'office'), and Fishers Island, New York - enclave known as a hangout for dynastic families such as the Rockefellers, Roosevelts and DuPonts.

Large swaths of San Francisco deemed "low-income" also qualify, along with areas of Beverly Hills.

Not exactly as advertised, is it?»


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-admin-classifies-marthas-vineyard-and-other-elite-enclaves-low-income-push-ev
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2029 em: 2024-02-08 07:33:50 »
Um comentário interessante acerca da Arábia:


«  Mamdouh Salameh on February 05 2024 said:
 
  The Saudi decision to halt oil production expansion to 13.0 million barrels a day (mbd) has nothing to do with a shift in its oil strategy and everything to do with declining production as a result of fast depleting production from aging giant oilfields more than 74 years old and being kept producing by injections of billions of gallons of water.

    Therefore, the author's argument that the Saudi move reflects its long-term strategy to preserve oil for future generations has no leg to stand on since it comes at the tail end of a declining production which will soon be hardly enough to cover domestic consumption.

    My estimate of Saudi current production is 6.0-6.5 mbd with the balance to Saudi declared- production of 9.0 mbd coming from its oil inventory. By 2030, I estimate that Saudi Arabia could only have 400,000 barrels a day (b/d) to export and would have virtually ceased to remain an oil exporter.

    If this is the case, then the impact on the global oil market, prices and international geopolitics would be seismic and far bigger than the energy crisis that followed the Arab oil embargo of 1973.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Signals-a-Shift-in-Oil-Strategy.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2030 em: 2024-02-08 17:36:39 »
«Oil Gains 2% as Israel Rejects Gaza Ceasefire Deal, US Gas Inventory Plummets

By Charles Kennedy - Feb 08, 2024, 10:22 AM CST


    Crude oil prices have ticked up over 2% in the aftermath of the rejection of a ceasefire in Gaza.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the war until “victory”.

    The rejection of a ceasefire deal comes a day after the U.S. launched one of a series of retaliatory strikes following the death of three American soldiers in Jordan.


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Crude oil prices have ticked up over 2% in the aftermath of the rejection of a ceasefire in Gaza, with Israeli forces launching new air strikes on Rafah city, and the Gaza Health Ministry saying that 130 people had been killed in the past 24 hours.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle East this week, raising hopes of a ceasefire deal during his trip. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the war until “victory”.

Earlier this week, Hamas offered a 4-½-month ceasefire deal that would have resulted in a hostage swap and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which the Israelis firmly rejected, while Blinken said there was still room for negotiation, Reuters reported. 

On Thursday at 11:12 a.m. ET, Brent crude oil was trading at $80.76, up 1.96%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $75.34, up 2% on the day.

According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, some 27,840 Gazans have been killed in the war since October 7. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, 1,200 Israelis have been killed.

The rejection of a ceasefire deal comes a day after the U.S. launched one of a series of retaliatory strikes following the death of three American soldiers in Jordan. Wednesday’s U.S. drone strike in the Iraqi capital killed a commander of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah, even as the group has suspended attacks on U.S. targets in the wake of the Jordan incident and ostensibly under pressure from Tehran.

Also providing stimulus to prices on Thursday was a stronger-than-expected draw on U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks, from the Wednesday data release by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA showed a 3.2-million-barrel draw on distillate stockpiles, while expectations were for a 1-million-barrel drop. At the same time, gasoline stockpiles drew down by 3.15 million barrels, when analysts were expecting a far smaller draw.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Gains-2-as-Israel-Rejects-Gaza-Ceasefire-Deal-US-Gas-Inventory-Plummets.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2031 em: 2024-02-10 05:12:52 »
« 02/09/2024
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The Permian shale oil basin is very close to peaking out. When it does, everything changes for the US and the world.

    "Everyone thought 2019 was the all-time high for Energy and Oil demand and that coming back out of covid, yeah we would come back and normalize--but never at the rates we saw. 2022 set the new record. I mean you couldn't have been wronger faster." ~ Adam Rozencwajg.

Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R), joined "Off the Cuff" Podcast with host Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity to explore the most vital but overlooked topic of our times: Peak Oil Is Closer Than You Think.

With our models and analyses, G&R projects that the one final and last mega oil basin in the US – the Permian – is set to hit peak output in 2025.  And if it does, it could set off alarm bells within the US and across the world, resulting in vastly higher oil prices. So, why do we think it is close to peak? What about the Marcellus – the monster US natural gas shale field?»


https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/peak-oil-podcast



«Off The Cuff With Adam Rozencwajg – Peak Oil Is Closer Than You Think

The Permian shale oil basin is very close to peaking out. When it does, everything changes for the US and the world. Join Adam Rozencwajg and I as we explore the most vital but overlooked topic of our times.
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Chris Martenson
Feb 07, 2024
22 10»


«If you’ve been following me for any length of time you know that I am a strict observationalist.  If I can see that something is happening, I don’t struggle with wondering if it’s happening.

Peak Oil is not a theory, it is an observation that individual wells produce up to a peak, and then the output declines as the well’s initial bounty is depleted.

What’s true for every single individual well is equally true when averaged across an entire set of wells placed within any given oil basin.

And what’s true for any given basin is true for all the basins in the entire world.  Eventually, they will collectively peak out and that will be that for the part of our economic story that is based on oil-fueled economic growth.  Which is kind of a doozy because what we’ve really done is built an entire system of debt-based money the smooth operation of which is entirely based on one idea; that oil-based economic growth will never end.

What happens when that’s revealed to be a rather ill-formed and rather silly idea?  I don’t know for sure, but I bet it involves massive financial losses spread across everyone, but more upon those who simply didn’t see this coming.  Rather like what happened to those who trusted the various spokesmodels for the Magic Holy Shot.  It didn’t go so well for far too many of them.  So, Caveat Emptor!

You may recall that I got into a bit of a back-and-forth with Doomberg over Peak Oil and you may have noted that he later went back and forth with one of my very favorite oil and resource analysts Adam Rozencwajg of Geohring and Rozencwajg.

Today I interviewed Adam Rozencwajg and asked him to expound on the models and analyses that his firm has conducted that project that the one final and last mega oil basin in the US – the Permian – is set to hit peak output in 2025.

If it does, I predict this will set off alarm bells within the US and across the world, and result in vastly higher oil prices.  But will it?  And why do they think it is close to peak?  What about the Marcellus – the monster US natural gas shale field?

Tune in to find out!»


https://peakprosperity.com/off-the-cuff-with-adam-rozencwajg-peak-oil-is-closer-than-you-think/?__hstc=&__hssc=&hsCtaTracking=3de63bbf-0e1a-4195-ae36-a1b1be5bdd47%7C83cbb7fe-47e9-4780-994d-c2cc5502363b
« Última modificação: 2024-02-10 05:14:43 por Kaspov »
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« Responder #2032 em: 2024-02-11 04:54:28 »
About net-zero policies...    :(


«Bugs On The Menu? Biden's Climate And ESG Policies Threaten Food Supply, Think-Tank Warns

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Saturday, Feb 10, 2024 - 02:40 AM


Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),


A new report from the right-leaning think-tank The Buckeye Institute sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s net-zero climate-control policies and that agenda items threaten U.S. food production.
A group of friends eat pan-fried bugs as part of the Hot One's challenge, in Hyattsville, Maryland, on June 04, 2021. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The report, released on Feb.7, found that the climate policies and mandates guided by the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) agenda that is being pushed by the Biden administration carries a hefty price tag for American farmers and consumers.

“To better appreciate the true costs that American farms and households will likely pay for the Biden administration’s net-zero policies and objectives, The Buckeye Institute’s Economic Research Center developed a model corn farm that must play by the government’s new carbon emission rules,” wrote report authors Trevor W. Lewis and M. Ankith Reddy, who are both economic research analysts at the think-tank.

“The farm’s operational costs, as expected, all rose significantly,” they added.

Crunching the numbers, the researchers found that U.S. farmers will see their operational costs rise by an estimated 34 percent as a result of the Biden administration’s net-zero emissions policies.

Not only did the model predict that the government’s carbon pricing policies would raise farm operating costs, consumers also face a hit to their wallets.

“Carbon pricing will increase the average U.S. grocery bill by $110 per month, $1,330 annually, or 15 percent,” the researchers estimated.
People shop in a grocery store in Los Angeles, Calif., on Oct. 12, 2023. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Threat to Food Supply

The government’s net-zero policies that the Buckeye report took into account in its analysis include the implications of rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, which targets greenhouse gas emissions.

In order to achieve the climate pact’s objectives, the Biden administration committed to cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50–52 percent by 2030 and to reach economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050.

“Achieving the administration’s desired decarbonized economy will require aggressive climate-emission reduction policies that drain and replace fossil fuels from every sector of the U.S. economy,” the report’s authors wrote.

The Biden administration has already started implementing stringent regulatory policies meant to cut carbon emissions from America’s energy industry, while a looming final rule on ESG reporting, due to enter into force in April 2024, threatens to push carbon compliance onto other industries.

Many of these policies have been tested in Europe, with the researchers concluding that the results there have been an “unmitigated failure.”

“Despite these resounding warnings from European counterparts, U.S. policymakers have recommitted American industry to the same net-zero emissions standards and have imposed the same kinds of costly mandates on farms and businesses that will ultimately reduce food and energy supplies without achieving their intended benefits,” they argued.

“The results of Buckeye’s modeling were predictable and unsurprising, but many U.S. policymakers seem unwilling to address or even acknowledge them. That has to change, or the United States will face dire economic consequences,” concludes the report’s executive summary.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the report’s findings.
President Joe Biden waits to speak at the Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., on Feb. 3, 2024. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)

Will Hild, executive director of Consumers’ Research, commented on the report in a post on X.

“Farmers and ranchers lay out huge sums for everything from fertilizer, seeds, and feed to heavy machinery and pesticides to produce the food we eat. Yet, the climate cult and ESG elites are causing these costs to skyrocket,” he wrote.

“That puts a heavier financial burden on agricultural producers and imposes higher food costs on hardworking Americans,” he continued.

“America’s farmers and ranchers’ livelihoods shouldn’t be at risk because of inflated operating costs or loss of access to capital from woke banks. Nor should the American people be victim to a crushing tax put on their groceries by climate extremists.”
‘Agriculture Is National Security’

The Buckeye report comes a week or so after a dozen Republican state agriculture commissioners warned in a Jan. 29 letter to top bank executives that membership in the UN Net-Zero Banking Alliance would negatively impact farmers and threaten America’s food security.

Along with their membership in the alliance, banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have pledged that the loans they make will “align with pathways to net-zero by mid-century or sooner.”

Tyler Harper, Georgia agriculture commissioner and one of the letter’s signatories, told The Epoch Times in an earlier interview that committing to net-zero policies has a negative knock-on impact on national security.

“At the end of the day, agriculture is national security, and if we’re not able to feed ourselves as a nation, we’re not able to protect ourselves,” he said.

“When you look at Sri Lanka and the devastating impacts that [climate mandates] had there, you look at the Netherlands and what they did to implement some of these policies there and the devastating impact it had on their ag economy—we’ve seen the impacts that this had in other nations and we don’t want that to happen here,” Mr. Harper added.
Farmers gather with their vehicles next to a Germany/Netherlands border sign during a protest on the A1 highway, near Rijssen, on June 29, 2022. (Vincent Jannink/ANP/AFP via Getty Images)

In 2019, after the government of Sri Lanka implemented rules to cut down the use of nitrogen in fertilizer, crop yields collapsed, leading to violent protests that ultimately toppled the government.

In the Netherlands, regulatory attempts to impose net-zero policies led to widespread protests from farmers.
‘Will You Eat the Bugs?’

Meanwhile, a recent Epoch Original Documentary called “No Farmers No Food: Will You Eat the Bugs?” explores the climate-control policies pushed by governments around the world and how they’re forcing farmers out of business, threatening food supply.

“This is the next global crisis that is being ignored by media across the world,” Roman Balmakov, host of EpochTV’s “Facts Matter” and director of the documentary, told The Epoch Times during an interview on the sidelines of the world premiere of the film in September 2023.
Roman Balmakov, Facts Matter host and director at the world premiere of The Epoch Times original documentary, “No Farmers No Food: Will You Eat The Bugs?” in Irving, Texas, on Sept. 22, 2023. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

The documentary delves into the history of the “climate crisis” and how it was conceived by world leaders during the United Nations Conferences on Environment and Development, also known as the Earth Summit, in June 1992, shortly after the Cold War ended.

The film also dives into Agenda 30, previously known as Agenda 21, laying out a case for how global policies set forth by the UN’s aim to end private farming and create dependence on a one-world government that will control the world’s food supply.

“People in charge of some of the most powerful organizations on the planet have determined that agriculture, specifically animal agriculture, is to blame for global warming and global warming is to blame for the high prices of food and food shortages,” Mr. Balmakov explained.

The documentary explores the impact of radical climate policies in Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, while also exploring the impact of net-zero and other regulations in the United States.

The solutions being proposed by governments around the world to solve climate change “might surprise you,” Mr. Balmakov says in the film.

“According to the United Nations, [bugs] might actually be your future dinner,” he says.

Kevin Stocklin and Jana Pruet contributed to this report.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bugs-menu-bidens-climate-and-esg-policies-threaten-food-supply-think-tank-warns
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« Responder #2033 em: 2024-02-11 17:25:43 »
About CO2 et al.:


«"If You Want To Control People, You Have To Control The CO2"

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by Tyler Durden

Sunday, Feb 11, 2024 - 01:25 AM


As farmer protests rage across Europe, Dutch MP Rob Roos sits down with The HighWire's Del Bigtree to discuss the climate scam pushed by radical globalist elites in the Western world to seize more power and control.


"They [elites] go against family values. They go against natural food. They go against freedom - because if you have to buy an electric car. They're almost twice as expensive - and people cannot buy that - it's not about the car - it's about you can't go anywhere and must depend on public transportation," Roos explained.

He said, "It's also digitalization - what we see is the digital identity and central bank digital currency - this is all about a new form of communism."

"If you want to control the people, you have to control the CO2 - because everything we do in life, breathing, living, traveling, eating, and everything we do in life leads to CO2 emissions. And if you can control the CO2, you can control the people," Roos said.

He further explained that the ultimate control comes when globalists connect people's digital identities to the central bank's digital currency.

Bigtree responded: "So much of this [globalist takeover of the West] was really fast-tracked during Covid." He pointed out that WEF branded the Covid era as the "Great Reset."

We have cited 1,600 scientists, including two Nobel laureates, who have stated in a letter: "There is no climate emergency." But under the guise of an imminent climate disaster, globalist elites, NGOs, governments, politicians, mega-corporations, and, of course, legacy media outlets push climate fear to usher in a reset of society.

The most critical line to remember from Roos' interview is: "If you can control the CO2, you can control the people. "

So, the next time you find yourself concerned about radical progressive politicians and rogue billionaires, like Bill Gates, advocating for 'green' policies, consider asking yourself: Are these new policies resulting in any loss of freedoms?»


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/if-you-want-control-people-you-have-control-co2
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2034 em: 2024-02-14 03:02:33 »
Com referências interessantes ao petróleo:


«"Desperate Lunatics"

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by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024 - 09:20 PM


Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
Think About It


    “It’s not enough to be against globalism or the WEF, we have to also be for something better.”

    - Tom Luongo, Gold, Goats ‘n Guns

Mr. Luongo makes an important point.

I want you to think about this: there is a reason that the WEF-Globalist cabal is losing the battle to control and dominate the rest of us. They are trying to power straight into the opposing currents of reality. Above all, they seek to centralize power and decision-making. But the world is moving in the opposite direction. All of the WEF’s aims founder on the macro trends unspooling in history.

The rising rule for human affairs now is that anything organized at the giant scale is going to wobble and fail. There will not be any world government run by the creatures of Davos or Brussels, or Washington DC, or any other place that the grandiose imagine would be their seat of global power. It’s not going to happen so you can stop worrying about it. But you’d better prepare for what is happening: everything in our world wants to get smaller, slower, finer, and more local. Anything that opposes these trends is pissing into the wind.

Since every activity we humans practice has to move in that direction, we are seeing colossal industries, institutions, and arrangements crack up: everything from national government to long-distance supply chains to giant retailing outfits to worldwide business networks to overgrown universities and high schools to transport matrices to metroplex cities to mega-farms to political parties.

Where the rot is probably greatest, but more veiled for the moment, is in the operations of organized capital, the banks and money systems, including financial markets. When these monsters blow, as they must, all the others will shake, rattle, and roll. They have to blow because the fuel tank is emptying.

American oil production may be at an all-time peak now at about 13-million barrels-a-day, but most of that - about 8-million - is shale oil, which is a manifestation of our tremendous debt roll-up since 2009. Now that we’re at the absolute limits of debt, we’re also at the limits of shale oil. The production of shale oil paralleled the accumulation of all that debt both in size and rate of increase, and as the debt goes bad - meaning, unpayable - the organized capital sector will blow and shale oil production will fall as sharply as it rose. It is also a fact that shale oil is subject to natural limits - we’re out of “sweet spots” to drill.

That’s America. Europe is way worse because aside from whatever oil is left in the North Sea (not much), Europe has no oil. Europe’s largest gas field — Groningen in the Netherlands — is scheduled to cease operations in October of this year. You all know what happened to the Nord Stream pipelines. And then Germany, in some psychotic fugue state, shut down its entire nuclear power industry, while France is just not replacing its nuke plants as they age-out. Europe is completely screwed. They won’t have anything we might call modern industry. In the meantime, the WEF is playing them like a flugelhorn, keeping them distracted with “green” politics, an unchecked immigrant invasion, and sexual confusion.

A lot of the same nuttery afflicts us in the USA, of course, but none of that alters the real macro trends. Our federal government is not really getting more powerful, it’s cracking up, starting from the very top, with a mentally incompetent president - the secret that everybody knows. Agencies like the DOJ and Homeland Security may seem more tyrannical for the moment, but they are actually breaking as institutions because in their lawlessness they’ve lost the trust of the people — and nothing is more fundamental to a civilized society than trust in the law. That’s what consent of the governed  means.

So, the period of disorderly transition we’re in is not moving toward greater dominance by giants, but to the survival of the small and nimble. We will not see capital formation like the orgy of recent times; rather the vanishing of things falsely presumed to be capital, contraction not expansion. You’ll be struggling to identify and preserve real wealth, which you’ll find in unexpected places, like the friends you can count on, your reputation for honesty, your dependability, acquired skills, and your health, physical and psychological.

The WEF won’t be able to impose its Globalist nightmare of elite transhumanism and surveilled bug-eating serfs, and they know it now. They’re running scared. The vile Yuval Noah Harari has even said so publicly. The political figures and agents serving that cabal will be lucky if they are not hanged in the public squares. The political criminals here in America, the hoaxsters, the grifters, the seditionists, the Lawfare agents, the election fraudsters, know very well the danger of their looming prosecutions, and that’s exactly why the Democratic Party and its blob henchmen and flunkies are acting like desperate lunatics.

Expect: failed national governments, maybe even state governments; failed supply lines; failed electric supply, failed trucking, failed big box stores, failed supermarkets, failed giant companies; failed banks, failed investments, failed money, failed news orgs, failed airlines, failed car dealers, failed hospitals, failed colleges, and much more.

But don’t discount human ingenuity and resourcefulness, our ability to work-around and reinvent systems for daily life, even if it’s on a downscaled and more modest level.

Expect rebuilt local economies from production to wholesale to retail. Expect smaller stores, fewer things to buy but much of it better quality. Expect a lot less long-distance travel but a lot more happening in your locality. Expect the rebirth of local culture - theaters, live music, news-sheets, dances - to replace all the canned entertainments we’re used to. Expect small private academies to rise to replace the shuttered central schools. Expect small, local clinics to appear from the ashes of the medical conglomerates. Expect Americans to return to churches as an organizing mechanism for community relations. Expect more formality and less slobbery in public. Expect all of us to feel a renewed sense of gratitude for being here instead of rage, resentment, and grievance, because it’s likely there will be far fewer of us around.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/desperate-lunatics
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2035 em: 2024-02-14 15:58:47 »
«WTI Drops After Huge Crude Build, US Production Back At Record Highs

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by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024 - 03:37 PM


Oil prices extended gains overnight after API reported big product draws (which offset a large crude build) and on geopolitical concerns rising once more after Israel launched an extensive wave of attacks in Lebanon, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on social media Wednesday.

Additionally, OPEC’s top official said Tuesday that global oil demand is set to expand strongly, while a monthly outlook from the group revealed limited compliance with the members’ latest round of supply cuts.

    “Oil has weathered the financial storm decisively, but copious upside potential might be too much of an ask,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM

Will the official data confirm API's major draws and builds?

API

    Crude +8.5mm (+2.8mm exp)

    Cushing +512k

    Gasoline -7.2mm (-1.0mm exp) - biggest draw since Sept 2021

    Distillates -4.0mm (-2.2mm exp) - biggest draw since May 2023

DOE

    Crude +12mm (+2.8mm exp)

    Cushing +720k

    Gasoline -3.7mm (-1.0mm exp)

    Distillates -1.9mm (-2.2mm exp)

The official data more than confirm the huge crude inventory build (over 12mm barrels) but the product draws were smaller than API reported. Cushing saw a rise in stocks for the first tin 6 weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden administration added 746k barrels to the SPR last week...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production was flat at record highs 13.3mm b/d...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $78.25 ahead of the print (off the highs of the day) and extended the decline after...

WTI was supported technically by a break above its 100DMA and 200DMA...

All of which means Messers Biden and Powell have a problem...

Source: Bloomberg

As rising crude and surging wholesale gasoline prices mean pump prices are due for a big jump.

Which can't but make you wonder why all of a sudden the DOE 'adjustment factor surges back to a big positive...

Is every government-provided data-set now, 'adjusted for electioneering'?»


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-drops-after-huge-crude-build-us-production-back-record-highs
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2036 em: 2024-02-15 00:02:59 »
Que chatice...    ::)

(in Facebook)
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2037 em: 2024-02-17 01:16:57 »
O Gás Natural em grande forma:


«India's Natural Gas Consumption Set To Triple by 2050

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by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Feb 15, 2024 - 10:40 PM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,


India’s industry expansion and rising oil refining to meet higher fuel demand are set to drive a tripling of the country’s natural gas consumption by 2050, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

In 2022, India’s natural gas consumption amounted to 7.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), with over 70% of the demand coming from the industrial sector. By 2050, India’s natural gas consumption is set to more than triple to 23.2 Bcf/d, according to EIA’s estimates. 

Among India’s five consuming sectors, the industrial sector’s share of gas consumption will grow the most, rising to 80% of total consumption, followed by the transportation sector rising to 10%. 

India’s gas consumption in oil refining is expected to grow significantly to keep up with India’s domestic demand for oil products, the EIA notes. By 2050, gas consumption will surge by more than 250% for the production of basic chemicals and by more than 400% for refining, with the two industries together accounting for about 79% of India’s industrial natural gas demand in 2050.

India is boosting its refining capacity. The country should add 1.12 million bpd to its current total each year until 2028, a junior oil minister told India’s parliament at the end of 2023.

Total Indian refining capacity is expected to increase by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year, which are equal to around 5.8 million bpd, Rameswar Teli said.

Per the EIA forecasts, India’s gas demand – buoyed by oil refining and other industrial production – is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.4% by 2050, more than twice the 2.0% annual growth rate of gas consumption in China, the next-fastest-growing country.

India’s economy is growing faster than all other major economies, and so is its demand for energy.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/indias-natural-gas-consumption-set-triple-2050
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2038 em: 2024-02-21 01:12:23 »
«Russia Appears To Comply With OPEC+ Production Pledge

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by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024 - 12:40 AM


By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Russia appears to have complied in January with its pledge to reduce crude oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this quarter, anonymous sources with knowledge of Russian energy ministry data, which is not public, have told Bloomberg.

At the latest OPEC+ meeting at the end of November, Russia said it would deepen the export cut to 500,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2024 – with May and June 2023 being the reference export levels for the cut. The cut this quarter will consist of reductions in exports of 300,000 bpd of crude and 200,000 bpd of refined products. 

In crude exports, Russia is estimated to have exported 4.59 million bpd both via tankers and pipelines last month. The decline from the May-June average, used as a baseline for the export cut, is equal to around 307,000 bpd, according to Bloomberg calculations and conversion of data in tons into barrels.

In seaborne crude shipments only, the four-week average of Russian exports was just over 3 million bpd in the four weeks to February 18, perfectly in line with the Russian pledge to reduce exports by 300,000 bpd, according to tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.

However, issues with sales to India as the West is tightening the sanctions enforcement could have dented Russian crude oil shipments more than Moscow originally intended.

As many as 15 million barrels of Russia’s Sokol grade – initially for deliveries to India – are sitting on idle tankers off South Korea and Malaysia, per ship-tracking data Bloomberg analysts have compiled.

Some of the tanker owners have been sanctioned by the U.S. after loading crude for India, while other cargoes are being held up by banks refusing payments due to either the price of oil exceeding the G7 price cap or a lack of clarity who the ultimate owner is, according to Indian officials who spoke to Bloomberg.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-appears-comply-opec-production-pledge
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #2039 em: 2024-02-25 18:23:33 »
Muito int., acerca dos comb. fósseis e da maravilhosa "Climáximo":


«Henrique Pereira dos Santos

Ativar alertas

Convidado da Oficina da Liberdade

Mioleira e Climáximo

O que os que vivem na ilusão da catástrofe futura que as faz aderir à Climáximo aparentemente desconhecem é a catástrofe do passado a que fugiram, e que nasceram na melhor época histórica para nascer.

30 out. 2023, 00:15 38
•   
 
(...)

À procura de um pormenor para fazer o almoço, acabei por dar uma vista de olhos nas vinte receitas de soufflé do livro de cozinha em que peguei.
Vinte não é um número redondo retórico, são mesmo vinte receitas de soufflé que estão nesse livro, e dei comigo a pensar como se mudam os tempos e as vontades: duvido que hoje alguém fizesse um livro de cozinha com vinte receitas de soufflé.
O soufflé de miolos é que melhor ilustra a distância que separa a minha vida de hoje da vida das pessoas que viveram quando esse livro foi escrito.
E não se trata de nenhuma raridade, é dos livros de receitas mais vulgares e que mais venderem ao longo de dezenas de anos, desde 1925 tem perto de 30 edições, algumas bem recentes.
A mioleira era usada comummente, nomeadamente como uma das primeiras, quando não a primeira, refeição sólida que era dada aos bebés, frequentemente com ovos, dado o seu elevado valor alimentício, em especial o seu conteúdo proteico.
A questão das proteínas na alimentação era um assunto sério, por isso se dava galinha e arroz de galinhas às mulheres nos períodos em que amamentavam e, logo depois, quando se fazia a transição do leite materno (ou de cabra, quando não havia leite das mães ou de uma ama) para comida de gente.
Nessa altura, era muito recomendada para as crianças de tenra idade a sopa de cabeça de carneiro – os Rolling Stones têm um disco com esse título, “Goats head soup”, um disco menor, diria eu – pelas mesmas razões.
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Conta-se na minha família que a minha avó, cozinheira de estalo e mulher prática, detestava fazer essa sopa, mas como os médicos eram muito insistentes nas suas vantagens para o crescimento das crianças, era a primeira sopa que lhes dava.
Como todas as crianças, a minha mãe e irmãos rejeitavam a novidade, habituados que estavam ao leite materno, pelo que a minha avó concluía que as crianças não gostavam dessa sopa e nunca mais lhes dava.
Nesse mundo, a mortalidade infantil era brutal, o conteúdo da alimentação em proteína era frequentemente baixo, apesar do consumo per capita de leguminosas ser bastante maior que o actual, feijão, grão e favas, sobretudo, e isso reflectia-se no desenvolvimento de toda a população, incluindo na altura média dos portugueses.
Acredito que para quem, como os que participam nas acções da Climáximo, nunca conheceu esse mundo, e que cresceu a consumir bananas como fonte de proteína, com a maior das naturalidades, seja difícil entender toda a extensão das alterações que ocorrem nos últimos cem anos, tendo por isso pouca consciência do que verdadeiramente significam as propostas que defendem.
A alteração na vida quotidiana das pessoas comuns que exigem, em especial para a metade da população que vive abaixo da mediana do rendimento, é muito mais profunda do que nos pretendem fazer crer.
O abandono das energias fósseis sem alternativas consistentes não se traduz apenas em menos viagens de avião, menos quilómetros de carro, mais consumo de produtos locais, e essas coisas que nos parecem defensáveis.
Traduz-se também em menor capacidade de produzir alimentos, porque os adubos azotados de baixo custo que a generalização do processo de Haber-Bosch permitiu, são hoje a base de uma agricultura capaz de alimentar muito mais gente que aquela que era possível alimentar há cem anos atrás, quando as famílias desesperavam por conseguir dar proteína suficiente às gestantes para que os fetos se desenvolvessem adequadamente, às mães recentes para que conseguissem produzir leite suficiente, e aos bebés para que o seu desenvolvimento lhes permitisse escapar à morte prematura, que em qualquer caso, nessa altura, tinha taxas que hoje achamos inaceitáveis.
É que a produção desses adubos depende de reacções químicas fortemente consumidoras de energia.
O que as pessoas que vivem na ilusão da catástrofe futura que as faz aderir à Climáximo aparentemente desconhecem é a catástrofe do passado a que fugiram, e por isso não sabem que não são vítimas nenhumas das gerações anteriores, pelo contrário, têm a sorte de ter nascido na melhor época histórica para nascer, a que alimenta mais gente, a que cura mais gente, a que previne mais doenças, a mais segura, a de maior equilíbrio de género, a de maior desenvolvimento e liberdade pessoais.
Talvez seja a altura de lhes dizer que, por estranho que pareça, afinal a mioleira faz uma grande falta, se não em soufflé, ao menos dentro da cabeça.»

https://observador.pt/opiniao/mioleira-e-climaximo/

Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there