Grécia - Tópico principal

[Incognitus]

 
*SCHAEUBLE: GREEK PROGRESS TALK DOESN'T FULLY REFLECT SITUATION

[tommy]

Aquilo na Grécia já não é  uma economia, é um parque de diversões. Agora vão a descer outra vez: segurem-se. 

Greece’s negotiators, for their part, have accepted the need to simplify its VAT system, which could yield extra revenue of up to 1% of GDP. That should help offset the damage from the downturn. The government has toned down its anti-privatisation rhetoric and is pressing ahead with the sale of its stake in Greece’s biggest port. It will have to accept more privatisations, not least since they yield revenue. Even Mr Tsipras’s “red lines”—no further cuts in pensions or public wages—are smudgeable. Creditors are not calling for cuts in public wages and pension spending can be reduced in a variety of indirect ways, such as reducing the scope for early retirement.

With so much to lose on both sides and little to gain (other than painful assertions of principle), a deal still appears the most likely outcome despite the fraught nature of the negotiations. An agreement will not immediately unlock new money since disbursements will require parliamentary approval in creditor countries such as Germany. But it would enable the ECB to help overcome the immediate cash crisis by temporarily raising the amount of short-term debt the Greek government can issue. That, however, will only pave the way for the next episode in the drama: negotiating a whole new bail-out agreement.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21652365-despite-foreboding-deal-still-appears-most-likely-outcome-when?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/when_the_talking_has_to_stop

[Mystery]

não obstante o desfecho negativo que se espera para esta novela, o varoufakis já conseguiu sacar umas boas massas ao ECB.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/varoufakis-ecb-grexit-threat-by-hans-werner-sinn-2015-05

[Zark]

Moppie85, sabes que o Lark/Zark/etc. não está no negócio de acertar no que prevê. Falha sempre.

Uns meses atrás era a Rússia que ia dar o dinheiro: falhou;
Anteontem era a Alemanha/Europa: falhou;
Hoje é os US: vai falhar outra vez;

Ele ainda não percebeu que os outros países não estão no negócio de andar a dar dinheiro aos outros. Tal como ele ainda não transferiu nada para Angola.

nunca disse que a rússia ia dar dinheiro. apresenta aí o post onde o fiz.
nunca disse que a UE ia de certeza conceder o dinheiro da última tranche. apresenta aí o post onde o fiz.

várias vezes apresentei a hipotese de os US virem a safar a Grécia. podes citar-me nisso.

nas outra duas, não.
mentir é feio, tommyzinho; ai ai...

Z

[Incognitus]

Como é que os EUA ou a Rússia safam a Grécia sem ser dando dinheiro? Dinheiro é a única coisa que a Grécia quer ...

[tommy]

Já diz o provérbio: "Olho no Lar..burro e outro no Zar...cigano".   

MUNICH – Game theorists know that a Plan A is never enough. One must also develop and put forward a credible Plan B – the implied threat that drives forward negotiations on Plan A. Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, knows this very well. As the Greek government’s anointed “heavy,” he is working Plan B (a potential exit from the eurozone), while Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras makes himself available for Plan A (an extension on Greece’s loan agreement, and a renegotiation of the terms of its bailout). In a sense, they are playing the classic game of “good cop/bad cop” – and, so far, to great effect.
Plan B comprises two key elements. First, there is simple provocation, aimed at riling up Greek citizens and thus escalating tensions between the country and its creditors. Greece’s citizens must believe that they are escaping grave injustice if they are to continue to trust their government during the difficult period that would follow an exit from the eurozone.

Second, the Greek government is driving up the costs of Plan B for the other side, by allowing capital flight by its citizens. If it so chose, the government could contain this trend with a more conciliatory approach, or stop it outright with the introduction of capital controls. But doing so would weaken its negotiating position, and that is not an option.
Capital flight does not mean that capital is moving abroad in net terms, but rather that private capital is being turned into public capital. Basically, Greek citizens take out loans from local banks, funded largely by the Greek central bank, which acquires funds through the European Central Bank’s emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) scheme. They then transfer the money to other countries to purchase foreign assets (or redeem their debts), draining liquidity from their country’s banks.
Other eurozone central banks are thus forced to create new money to fulfill the payment orders for the Greek citizens, effectively giving the Greek central bank an overdraft credit, as measured by the so-called TARGET liabilities. In January and February, Greece’s TARGET debts increased by almost €1 billion ($1.1 billion) per day, owing to capital flight by Greek citizens and foreign investors. At the end of April, those debts amounted to €99 billion.
A Greek exit would not damage the accounts that its citizens have set up in other eurozone countries – let alone cause Greeks to lose the assets they have purchased with those accounts. But it would leave those countries’ central banks stuck with Greek citizens’ euro-denominated TARGET claims vis-à-vis Greece’s central bank, which would have assets denominated only in a restored drachma. Given the new currency’s inevitable devaluation, together with the fact that the Greek government does not have to backstop its central bank’s debt, a default depriving the other central banks of their claims would be all but certain.
A similar situation arises when Greek citizens withdraw cash from their accounts and hoard it in suitcases or take it abroad. If Greece abandoned the euro, a substantial share of these funds – which totaled €43 billion at the end of April – would flow into the rest of the eurozone, both to purchase goods and assets and to pay off debts, resulting in a net loss for the monetary union’s remaining members.
All of this strengthens the Greek government’s negotiating position considerably. Small wonder, then, that Varoufakis and Tsipras are playing for time, refusing to submit a list of meaningful reform proposals.
The ECB bears considerable responsibility for this situation. By failing to produce the two-thirds majority in the ECB Council needed to limit the Greek central bank’s self-serving strategy, it has allowed the creation of more than €80 billion in emergency liquidity, which exceeds the Greek central bank’s €41 billion in recoverable assets. With Greece’s banks guaranteed the needed funds, the government has been spared from having to introduce capital controls.
Rumor has it that the ECB is poised to adjust its approach – and soon. It knows that its argument that the ELA loans are collateralized is wearing thin, given that, in many cases, the collateral has a rating below BBB-, thus falling short of investment grade.
If the ECB finally acknowledges that this will not do, and removes Greece’s liquidity safety net, the Greek government would be forced to start negotiating seriously, because waiting would no longer do it any good. But, with the stock of money sent abroad and held in cash having already ballooned to 79% of GDP, its position would remain very strong.
In other words, thanks largely to the ECB, the Greek government would be able to secure a far more favorable outcome – including increased financial assistance and reduced reform requirements – than it could have gained at any point in the past. A large share of the acquired resources measured by the TARGET balances and the cash that has been printed would turn into an endowment gift for an independent future.
Many people in Europe seem to believe that Varoufakis, an experienced game theorist but a political neophyte, does not know how to play the cards that Greece has been dealt. They should think again – before Greece walks away with the pot.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/varoufakis-ecb-grexit-threat-by-hans-werner-sinn-2015-05#r0rjK7xOipYjMWoy.99

[Zark]

Está-me mesmo a parecer que que no último minuto os US intervêm para salvar a Grécia.
É uma vergonhaça para a UE se isto acontecer.


E sinal que a UE não têm capacidade política e precisa de ajuda exterior para resolver os seus problemas.
Os governos austéricos europeus vão ficar em muito maus lençóis se isto acontecer.

Tinha a sua piada o Syrisa e o Podemos a felicitar o Obama pela sua coragem política e a gozar na cara do Schauble.

O tommy, nem sei. Até tenho medo do que lhe possa acontecer. Espero que a sua linda cabecinha não expluda. Ou impluda como agora sói dizer-se.
(ainda não percebi esta moda da implosão - acabaram-se as explosões para sempre?)

Z

não entendo qual a duvida que o US, o UK e outros façam pressão.
No fim de contas, é fácil "ladrar" quando não se mete o dinheiro no assunto...

EDIT: os US tb fazem pressão sobre a Grécia. Por outro lado, não os vejo disponiveis para emprestadar dinheiro ao Tsipras e cia

hmmm

pensei que fosse evidente que o que eu queria dizer era que os US podem mesmo virem a ser os que se chegarão à frente com o dinheiro.t
é muito diferente de 'fazer pressão'. é chegar aos credores, puxar da carteira, perguntar 'diga lá então o que falta pagar' e pagar.
depois de uma forma ou de outra hão-de apresentar a conta à UE.

o UK, esquece. para eles se os gregos morrerem à fome é igual ao litro.

Z

[Zark]

Como é que os EUA ou a Rússia safam a Grécia sem ser dando dinheiro? Dinheiro é a única coisa que a Grécia quer ...

é para mim a pergunta?
pensei que já tivesse explicado o suficiente.
acabei de explicar no post acima deste.

Z

[Incognitus]

Olha lá o exagero dos Gregos morrerem à fome (na tua frase do UK) num dos países mais ricos do mundo ... 

[Zark]

Está-me mesmo a parecer que que no último minuto os US intervêm para salvar a Grécia.
É uma vergonhaça para a UE se isto acontecer.


E sinal que a UE não têm capacidade política e precisa de ajuda exterior para resolver os seus problemas.
Os governos austéricos europeus vão ficar em muito maus lençóis se isto acontecer.

Tinha a sua piada o Syrisa e o Podemos a felicitar o Obama pela sua coragem política e a gozar na cara do Schauble.

O tommy, nem sei. Até tenho medo do que lhe possa acontecer. Espero que a sua linda cabecinha não expluda. Ou impluda como agora sói dizer-se.
(ainda não percebi esta moda da implosão - acabaram-se as explosões para sempre?)

Z

capacidade politica? entao e os americanos andam a dar dinheiro indiscriminado aos governos locais falidos?

hmmm?!

didn't  mr clinton bailed out méxico?

Presidential

1995
Clinton authorizes loan to Mexico

On this day in 1995, President Bill Clinton authorizes a $20 billion loan to Mexico.

As the value of the peso hit an all-time low, Clinton sidestepped Congress’ rejection of an earlier $50 billion loan proposal and exercised his executive power. Claiming that he was acting in the national interest and that national security was at stake, he authorized the Treasury Department to issue a loan through the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This was the first time the fund had been used to help stabilize a foreign currency. Clinton justified his decision by arguing that if the peso continued to fall, Mexico’s economy would crash and in turn negatively impact the United States. He warned that an insolvent Mexico might result in an influx of illegal immigration into the U.S., threatening American jobs and border security. Furthermore, he predicted that U.S. exports to Mexico would dwindle, disrupting the U.S. economy.

Critics of Clinton’s policy dismissed these gloomy scenarios and resented what they saw as a rescue of Mexico from its own inept financial management and a bailout of Wall Street investment in unreliable Mexican bonds. Republican leaders agreed with conservative Pat Buchanan’s assessment of the loan as “daylight robbery of the nation’s wealth. [It is money] the American taxpayers will never see again.” Other members of Congress complained that Clinton’s bypass of the legislature was an abuse of executive power, stressing that decisions that threatened to increase the U.S. budget deficit should remain in the jurisdiction of Congress.

The public fear of bailouts was understandable. In 1989, following the widespread failure of deregulated savings and loan companies in 1986, Congress enacted the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA). This act required American taxpayers to contribute to the bailout of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC). The resulting cost to taxpayers was estimated at $124 billion in 1999.

Critics of the loan to Mexico echoed opponents of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was established by President George H.W. Bush and supported by Clinton. They argued that Clinton’s vision of a global economy would lead to an unacceptable trade deficit as American imports greatly outnumbered exports, widening the gap between economic classes and eliminating U.S. jobs.

In subsequent years, Mexico paid off the loan along with $500 million in interest, though its economy was still far from robust. In 1997, Clinton revisited his decision and concluded, “some said we should not get involved, that the money would never be repaid, that Mexico should fend for itself. They were wrong. Today the American people can be proud that we did the right thing by Mexico and the right thing for the United States, and the right thing to protect global prosperity.”

é uma coisa contemporânea, bolas.

isso é de uma falta de informação/cultura gritante.

Z

[Zark]

Olha lá o exagero dos Gregos morrerem à fome (na tua frase do UK) num dos países mais ricos do mundo ... 

que tem?
bad joke?

Z

[Automek]

Como é que os EUA ou a Rússia safam a Grécia sem ser dando dinheiro?

Quando as prateleiras dos supermercados estiverem vazias sobrevoam a Grécia e atiram uns caixotes de enlatados.

[tommy]

Achar que a emigração em massa do méxico para os US tem o mesmo efeito nas decisões políticas dos americanos que os gregos.... ~



Procura aí quanto é que os US emprestaram à Argentina em 2001 quando eles faliram.
Ainda hoje estão a fazê-los pagar cêntimo por cêntimo os créditos dos privados especuladores abutres. Até dói ver a agonia do governo da esquerdalha mata procuradores socialista da kirchner. 

[Incognitus]

Olha lá o exagero dos Gregos morrerem à fome (na tua frase do UK) num dos países mais ricos do mundo ... 

que tem?
bad joke?

Z

Não é óbvio o que tem? A Grécia ter fome é, se alguma vez acontecer, inteiramente uma opção interna.

[Zark]

Olha lá o exagero dos Gregos morrerem à fome (na tua frase do UK) num dos países mais ricos do mundo ... 

que tem?
bad joke?

Z

Não é óbvio o que tem? A Grécia ter fome é, se alguma vez acontecer, inteiramente uma opção interna.

ah ok, queres levar a conversa para aí. nah...
o que eu quero dizer é que o uk se está borrifando nos gregos. por eles os gregos podem ir para o inferno.
quanto à minha especulação sobre o bail out dos americanos à grécia, está clara agora?
eu sei que é muito far fetched e não li em lado nenhum que isto pudesse ser uma hipotese.
mas há uns meses que me parece ser uma hipotese. que é algo que pode acontecer.

Z

[Zark]

Achar que a emigração em massa do méxico para os US tem o mesmo efeito nas decisões políticas dos americanos que os gregos....

usas chapéu tommy?
é pode vir a ser que tenhas que comer o teu chapéu.

e não ver a importância do que é que a grécia ser deixada à sua sorte, geopoliticamente é.... uhhh.... ignorância? e atrevida!

Z

[tommy]

O  Zark faz-me lembrar esta descrição do trabalho de Amos Tversky e Daniel Kahneman

Enter Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, psychologists at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Together, in the late 1960s, they had set off to confirm their suspicion that the weird self-defeating stuff that people do isn't random and inexplicable but fundamental to human nature. More to the point, human beings were not just occasionally irrational, but systematically irrational. They had predictable biases -- for instance, they were inclined to draw radical conclusions from tiny amounts of information.

Incrível como bate certo 50 anos depois.

[Incognitus]

Olha lá o exagero dos Gregos morrerem à fome (na tua frase do UK) num dos países mais ricos do mundo ... 

que tem?
bad joke?

Z

Não é óbvio o que tem? A Grécia ter fome é, se alguma vez acontecer, inteiramente uma opção interna.

ah ok, queres levar a conversa para aí. nah...
o que eu quero dizer é que o uk se está borrifando nos gregos. por eles os gregos podem ir para o inferno.
quanto à minha especulação sobre o bail out dos americanos à grécia, está clara agora?
eu sei que é muito far fetched e não li em lado nenhum que isto pudesse ser uma hipotese.
mas há uns meses que me parece ser uma hipotese. que é algo que pode acontecer.

Z

Os Americanos tinham pelo menos 2 razões sólidas para um bailout ao México:
* O "bom motivo": a onda de emigração possível;
* E o possível motivo real: proteger a banca Americana de perdas.


Nem há bom motivo nem possível motivo escondido em fazer um bailout à Grécia. Os Americanos na sua maioria nem devem saber onde no mapa a Grécia está.


-----------


Não se insultem.

[Zark]

U.S. warns G7 of global economy 'accident' without Greece deal

The United States warned on Friday of a possible accident for the world economy if Greece and its creditors miss their June deadlines to avert a debt default.

Germany said there was no sign of a breakthrough.

With Athens struggling to make repayments due next month, the debt stand-off between Greece and its European Union partners overshadowed a meeting of policymakers from the Group of Seven rich nations otherwise held to focus on ways to get the global economy growing strongly again.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew repeated warnings not to minimize the global stability risk of Greece sliding out of the euro zone, even if most of its debt is no longer held by commercial banks.

"There is great uncertainty in there at a time when the world needs greater stability and certainty," Lew told reporters after the G7 meetings.

Greece, which has been stuck in a deep debt crisis for the past five years, is due to pay back 300 million euros ($329.61 million) to the International Monetary Fund next Friday, although the IMF has said that deadline could be pushed back until later in June.

On June 30, Greece's bailout expires, meaning it would be unable to call on cash currently available to it.

Lew said time was precious. "If you look from January until now, too much time has been spent unproductively," he said.

He called for agreement quickly on the broad terms of a deal to avoid the risk of stumbling on difficult details at the last moment: "I think waiting until the day or two before whatever the deadline is, is just a way of courting an accident."

Greek officials earlier this week said they were close to an outline agreement. That claim was quickly quashed by top officials from euro zone countries and the IMF.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble said on Friday there was no indication of a breakthrough. "The positive news from Athens is not fully reflected in the talks," he said.

France struck a more optimistic note, however, saying officials were not considering the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone.

"There is no Grexit scenario," Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters.

BUDGETS

Trying to show that Greece had not dominated their meetings, G7 officials said they had discussed ways to finally put behind them the financial crisis of 2007-09.

Canada and Germany renewed their calls for countries to focus on bringing down their budget deficits as the best way to get their economies growing again.

But in a reminder of the long-standing divisions among policymakers over the merits of austerity or public spending, the United States said major economies should consider using fiscal policies to support growth and avoid deflation.

The G7 said China was progressing towards having its renmimbi currency included in a basket of currencies used by the IMF. That would be a recognition of Beijing's clout in the global economy. But Germany said China was unlikely be given the green light this year.

The G7 also asked a global bank regulators body, the Financial Stability Fund, to work on a code of conduct for bankers as part of its efforts to make sure the financial services industry does not put the world economy at risk again.

reuters

[vbm]

É uma estupidez não pagar o que a Grécia deva!