Ouro - Tópico principal

[SrSniper]

Sniper, acho que é isto:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index

Muito obrigado João

[Zel]

so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX

[Luso11]

Uma pequena entrada longa no ouro,  XAU/USD , muito prudente para bere a evolução ... 

Bons negócios

[JoaoAP]

Fiquei a saber o mesmo, mas ok.
Entretanto o ouro está a perder a pica toda...

Para quem negoceia como tu sempre pensei que ao menos fosse ao yahoo e escrevesses "XAU" o restante logo verias.
A única dificuldade poderia ser os vários "XAU" que haveria... mas deixei o nome!!

Como poderás ver de seguida, bastava escreveres XAU e logo o 1º era o que referi!!

Por isso te disse que se fosses ao Yahoo... mas mesmo assim deixei o nome completo ...
Há algo que não bate certo!

[JoaoAP]

so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX

Ficou overbought, e por isso eu ontem sai da minha segunda parte do GDXJ.
Mas espero que a correcção seja ligeira para tornar a entra e ficar a 50%
A acompanhar. Se não der... paciência.

[Pekenobuda]

so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX

Já estás a querer estragar a festa pah, deixa lá a malta divertir-se mais um pouco!!!

É a média móvel dos 200 que se aproxima?

Não vendo nada, a minha ideia é reforçar no retracement.

[Visitante]

The price of gold and the level of interest rates have been highly correlated:

–If interest rates rise to 4%, the price of gold could fall to about $800/ounce
–If interest rates rise to 5%, the price of gold could fall to about $500/ounce
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 2%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,500
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 1%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,900

ver mais

[hermes]

The price of gold and the level of interest rates have been highly correlated:

–If interest rates rise to 4%, the price of gold could fall to about $800/ounce
–If interest rates rise to 5%, the price of gold could fall to about $500/ounce
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 2%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,500
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 1%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,900

ver mais

Não é assim tão linear, há uma não linearidade chamada custo de produção e o preço actual já está abaixo dos custos de produção da maior parte dos juniores que estão a cair que nem tordos e até das grandes mineiras que estão a pôr as minas em bolas de naftalina...

Já para não falar que o suberano pertinente, o tio Sam, não consegue pagar tais juros além desse mesmo suberano controlar a FED, que está lá para o que vier e der. Para piorar a situação, o resto do mundo já não tem de se submeter a austeridades alheias...

[Zel]

so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX

Já estás a querer estragar a festa pah, deixa lá a malta divertir-se mais um pouco!!!

É a média móvel dos 200 que se aproxima?

Não vendo nada, a minha ideia é reforçar no retracement.

eh um setup dum sistema meu, mas com a queda de hoje esta anulado...

[hermes]

Cada qual tem o ouro que merece [metálico ou não].

China becomes top gold consumer in 2013

By Xan Rice
January 23, 2014 1:00 pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a48854c-8427-11e3-9903-00144feab7de.html

China has overtaken India as the world’s largest gold consumer thanks to soaring purchases of jewellery, minted Panda coins and small gold bars.

According to the Thomson Reuters GFMS gold survey, the most widely followed report on the industry, Chinese demand reached 1,189.8 tonnes last year, a 32 per cent year-on-year jump and a fivefold increase since 2003.

Its hungry factories and mushrooming cities had already made China the number one global consumer of industrial metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc.

The frenetic buying of gold in China, which led to a temporary shortage of physical stocks, was sparked by the 28 per cent fall in the precious metal’s price last year, the worst performance in more than three decades.

Following a 12-year bull run, gold lost its lustre in Europe and North America as economic conditions improved and the prospects of inflation receded. Western investors dumped gold-backed exchange traded funds in 2013, with holdings falling by 880 tonnes.

A simultaneous “Asian-led buying frenzy”, with consumers chasing bargains, resulted in gold bars being removed from vaults in Europe and other markets, melted into smaller bars in Swiss refineries, and shipped to the East. GFMS described the flow as the “largest movement of gold, by value, in history”.

Indian consumption rose 5 per cent to 987.2 tonnes last year, but was held back by new import tariffs and restrictions. In China there were no brakes. Gold jewellery fabrication rose nearly a third to 724 tonnes, surpassing India for the first time, and the retail sector boomed. In July and August, more than 200 gold showrooms opened in the southern city of Shenzhen.

Because many Chinese buy jewellery for investment reasons rather than adornment, high purity 24 carat gold products dominated sales. Purchases of physical bars – mostly kilobars and smaller weights – rose 47 per cent to 366 tonnes, a new record. In terms of gold coins, only Turkey minted more than China in 2013.

“Gold has always been popular culturally in China and now it’s increasingly seen as an asset class for individuals,” said Andrew Leyland, manager of precious metals demand at GFMS. “Greater wealth and disposable incomes created pent-up demand when prices were high, so when they dropped there was this phenomenal surge in buying.”

Were it not for Chinese purchases, the gold price would have been at risk of further falls. Outside Asia, investor appetite for the metal has remained weak, and few analysts expect the gold price to recover this year. GFMS forecasts an average price for 2014 of $1,225 a troy ounce – around $20 below current level – with physical demand remaining solid “but without a repeat of the bargain hunting surge”.

In recent years, China has also become the world’s biggest gold producer, with estimated output of 437.3 tonnes last year. Although there are no official figures, some of that metal is thought to have been purchased by the People’s Bank of China. The central bank last reported holdings of 1,054 tonnes, in 2009.

[hermes]

A Índia por sua vez lá continua com o seu projecto de dinamização da economia paralela ao tornar cada vez mais lucrativo o contrabando de ouro. Convenhamos, além do governo indiano, quem é contra noivas felizes?

No plans to roll back gold import curbs - Chidambaram

by Suvashree Choudhury & Siddesh Mayenkar
Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:14pm IST

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/gold-india-chidambaram-idINDEEA0M08620140123

(Reuters) - India is not planning any changes to its record import duty on gold and other restrictions on imports until the current account deficit is firmly under control, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told CNBC TV18 in Davos.

"Until we have a firm grip on the current account deficit I do not contemplate any roll back in any measure. We will have a full idea of the current account deficit only when the budget is presented and when the year comes to an end," Chidambaram said.

He was answering a question about an earlier TV report that Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the ruling Congress party, had written to the government asking for gold import restrictions to be eased. Chidambaram said he had not read the letter.

India has a record 10 percent import duty and a rule that says 20 percent of all imports must leave the country as exports. India used to be the world's biggest buyer of bullion until the government introduced the curbs in order to contain a record current account deficit.

India's fiscal year ends on March 31, 2014 and the budget will be presented in February.

[hermes]

Apesar deste artigo já ter saído o ano passado, não o coloquei então aqui por as fontes serem menos main stream:

Alex Stanczyk: Physical Supply Never Been Tighter

by Koos Jansen
on December 5, 2013 at 8:08 pm

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/alex-stanczyk-physical-supply-never-been-tighter

Wednesday I had the privilege again to interview Alex Stanczyk, Chief Market Strategist for the Anglo Far- East group of companies, who just returned from a trip to Switzerland. Alex confirmed to me the distribution of gold from west to east is not slowing down whatsoever. Refineries in Switzerland are still working 24 hour a day to cast bars for China, sometimes having difficulties sourcing the gold..

What was the purpose of your trip to Switzerland?

The purpose was two fold. We go to Switzerland once a year as part of our governance, we’re required to have an annual inspection of the gold, that was the main purpose of the trip. But in addition to that we also liked to talk to the refineries. It was myself, it was the managing director of Anglo Far-East mister Philip Judge, and Jim Rickards went with us, he sits on our advisory board.

We met with the managing director of the largest refinery in Switzerland and spend about two hours talking to him, we learned some very interesting things. Whats going on in the gold market as far as the price, is I think very counter intuitive. Everybody understands, knows and believes the price should be higher than it is, but it isn’t. There’s confusion in the marketplace, and there are two reactions; the reaction in the west is fear, confusion and uncertainty; the reaction in the east is buying. Now, this gentleman we were talking to probably has a better idea of physical gold flow than anybody else globally. He sees what is coming from the mines, he sees what is coming from the UK, and all over the world, as well as where its going. He indicated the price didn’t make sense because he has got so much fabrication demand. They put on three shifts, they’re working 24 hours a day, and originally he thought that would wind down at some point. Well, they’ve been doing it all year. Every time he thinks its going to slow down, he gets more orders, more orders, more orders. They have expanded the plant to where it almost doubles their capacity. 70 % of their kilobar fabrication is going to China, at apace of 10 tons a week. That’s from one refinery, now remember there are 4 of these big ones [refineries] in Switzerland.

That makes sense because withdraws from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults are 40 tons a week on average this year.

Well, there you go.

…At this Swiss refinery there have been several times this year on which they were unable to source gold, this shocked me. They’re bringing in good delivery bars, scrap and dore from the mines, basically all they can get their hands on. This gentleman has been in the business for 37 years, he was there during the last bull market in the late seventies. I asked him when was the last time this has happened, that he was unable to source gold, he said never. And I clarified it, I asked: let me make sure if I understand what you’re saying to me, in the last 37 years you’ve worked in the gold industry this has never happened? He said: this has never happened.

…There was one other comment that was fascinating, he said sometimes when they get gold in, it’s coming from the back corners of the vaults. He knew this because these were good delivery bars marked in the sixties. This is a huge supply squeeze and its worse than anything that has happened in the last four decades. At some point there is going to be a massive squeeze on the price.

…All four Swiss refineries combined may be doing as much as  [supply China] 2000 tons this year. That doesn’t include what the Perth Mint ships to China, it doesn’t include the 400 tons the Chinese mined domestically, and it doesn’t include what they mined offshore with the mining companies they own all over the world. I suspect that total Chinese demand can reach as much as total global mining production this year.

…He also noted, in China there are 6 LBMA refineries but he has never seen a Chinese gold bar, they’re keeping it all. Gold that goes into China is like going into a black-hole. I don’t think it will be available on the market for decades to come, which only tightens the physical supply.

…The Chinese aren’t buying it for trading, they’re buying it as part of their wealth foundation for future generations. When the communists came to power in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and the nationalist army fled the country and took all the gold with them. On that moment China had no gold, although they had thousands of years of history with gold, they had to start all over. I think the importance of rebuilding their gold reserves had been there in the last decades, but it accelerated the last three years or so, encouraging their people heavily to buy.

I also heard there is strong kilobar demand from the Middel East.

That’s because Dubai does a lot of clearing for that entire area. Given what’s happening to Saudi Arabia, and the potential that Saudi Arabia is separating itself from the United States, essentially the whole petro-dollar is at risk for them. Normally what they would do is sell their oil for dollars and then buy US treasuries, but if they’re gonna separate from the US they’re not gonna buy US treasuries. So what are they gonna buy?

Gold?

Yes, possibly. That’s what we think. We don’t think they will be buying US treasuries, they supported them for 40 years, but the US has basically stabbed them in the back.

Alasdair Macleod actually said, on the Keiser Report, that a lot of 400 ounce bars from the Middle East are being refined in Switzerland into 1 K 4 nine bars [a gold bar of 1 kilogram, 99.99 % purity] and then sent back. Is the 1 K 4 nine bar becoming some new form of liquidity?

Possibly, all the demand that we can see in China is for 1 K bars. They want kilo, and they want four nines.

When do think the price is going to rise?

I’m not comfortable to put a time on this. What I do know is that we are on the threshold of a situation that has never occurred before. A squeeze is imminent, it could take 3 months or 6 months, but all I know is that it’s coming, and I know that with 100 % certainty.

In Gold We Trust

Além disso, se a informação tivesse mérito esta tornar-se-ía main streem. A seguinte notícia parece corroborar a informação anterior sobre sobre o aumento da procura de ouro físico, embora a ênfase esteja na cunhagem de moedas:

Gold Mint Runs Overtime in Race to Meet World Coin Demand

By Debarati Roy
2014-01-27T07:22:14Z

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/gold-mint-runs-overtime-in-race-to-meet-world-coin-demand.html

Austria’s mint is running 24 hours a day as global mints from the U.S. to Australia report climbing demand for gold coins even while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says this year’s price rebound will end.

Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG mint hired extra employees and added a third eight-hour shift to the day in a bid to keep up with demand. Purchases of bullion coins at Australia’s Perth Mint rose 20 percent this year through Jan. 20 from a year earlier. Sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the best month since April, when the metal plunged into a bear market.

Global mints are manufacturing as fast as they can after a 28 percent drop in gold prices last year, the biggest slump since 1981, attracted buyers of physical metal. The demand gains helped bullion rally for five straight weeks, the longest streak since September 2012. That won’t be enough to stem the metal’s slump according to Morgan Stanley, while Goldman Sachs Group predicts bullion will “grind lower” over 2014.

“The long-term physical buyers see these price drops as opportunities to accumulate more assets,” said Michael Haynes, the chief executive officer of American Precious Metals Exchange, an online bullion dealer. “We have witnessed some top selling days in the past few weeks.”

Gold futures in New York climbed 5.2 percent this month to $1,268.29 an ounce, heading for the first gain since August. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials slid 1.1 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities dropped 2.9 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, advanced 0.7 percent.

Prices Rebound

Prices rebounded more than 7 percent since reaching a 34-month low in June as physical buying rose. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s largest bullion bourse, delivered 2,197 metric tons to customers in 2013, compared with 1,139 tons in 2012, it said Jan. 15. The Asian country topped India as the world’s top buyer last year as demand probably reached a record, the World Gold Council estimates.

The U.K.’s Royal Mint, which traces its history back more than 1,000 years, ran out of 2014 Sovereign gold coins because of “exceptional demand,” it said in a statement on Jan. 8. Coins weren’t available to customers until six days later when inventories were replenished. Sales by the Perth Mint, which also has workers producing coins in three shifts a day, will probably beat last year’s record, Ron Currie, the marketing director, said Jan. 20.

Goldman, Morgan

Bullion tumbled in 2013 after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, snapping 12 straight years of gains. Holdings through exchange-traded products fell 33 percent in the past 12 months, erasing $69.1 billion from the value of the funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices also fell as U.S. equities rallied and inflation remained low.

Goldman expects bullion to fall to $1,050 in the next 12 months as the Federal Reserve reduces monetary stimulus, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, said in a report Jan. 12. Precious metals are Morgan Stanley’s “least preferred” commodities, and physical demand won’t be enough to buoy prices, analysts Adam Longson, Bennett Meier and Peter Richardson said in a Jan. 17 report. The bank cut its 2014 target 12 percent to $1,160 on Jan. 22.

“Prices are likely to drop further as global economic conditions are stabilizing and tapering worries continue,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $110 billion of assets. “There is no doubt that physical demand has improved, but it will not be enough to support prices.”

Coin Sales

The U.S. Mint, the world’s largest, sold 89,500 ounces so far this month. The Austrian mint that makes Philharmonic coins, saw sales jump 36 percent last year and expects “good business” for the next couple of months, Andrea Lang, the marketing and sales director of Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG, said in an e-mail.

“The market is very busy,” Lang said. “We can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime.”

The price for the Austrian mint’s 1-ounce Philharmonic gold coin slumped 27 percent last year, according to data from the Certified Coin Exchange.

“It’s been a very bad year for gold,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “People who bought coins have lost value, but they are not looking at short-term gains, and hope springs eternal.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net

[hermes]

A alavancagem da comex começa a atingir valores interessantes. Não é que sejam muito relevantes, pois a comex é um side show em comparação com o volume [net] de ouro transaccionado na LBMA que é duas ordens de grandeza acima. Além disso a alavancagem da comex pode estar hedged na LBMA, não obstante, segundo o Banco Central da Índia a alavancagem da LBMA ser de 92x...

Physical Gold Shortage Goes Mainstream

by Tyler Durden
on 01/18/2014 23:18 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-18/physical-gold-shortage-goes-mainstream

While the topic of rehypothecation and the shortage of physical gold is well covered here at Zero Hedge (and the ever-changing COMEX gold vaults' inventories), it appears the concept of the exploding "leverage" or default risk of the COMEX has now hit the mainstream media. As BNN reports, veteran trader Tres Knippa, pointing to recent futures data, says "there may not be enough gold to go around if everyone with a futures contract insists on taking delivery of physical bullion." As he goes on to explain to a disquieted anchor, "the underlying story here is that the people acquiring physical gold continue to do that. And that’s what is important," noting large investors like hedge fund manager Kyle Bass are taking delivery of the gold they're buying. Knippa's parting advice, buy physical gold; avoid paper.

One of the problems...

[hermes]

A seguinte notícia exclui o hedging como mecanismo explicativo da queda do "ouro" na COMEX [note-se que este foi o mecanismo responsável pela queda do ouro na década de noventa, via gold carry trade]. Quanto é que vale colectivamente uma colecção de contratos que não valem o papel em que estão escritos? Há por aí muito "gold" bug a gritar manipulação por o papel não valer mais que o contrato [aka short squeeze], não obstante haver explicações mais prosaicas...

A notícia tb é boa por um outro aspecto: diz qual é o custo de produção de ouro.

Hedging by gold miners at decade low in Sept quarter

by Rajesh Bhayani
on January 30, 2014

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-mines-hedge-book-shrinks-to-a-decade-low-114013000943_1.html

Hedging by gold miners fell to a decadal low in the quarter ended September, according to the latest quarterly Thomson Reuters GFMS Société Générale Global Hedge Book Analysis.

Globally, gold mining companies hedge their production in the derivatives market, usually in options, to lock earnings. When prices fall, hedging takes a knock. "At the end of September, the outstanding global hedge book was 2.94 million oz, the lowest since our quarterly series began in 2002," said the report.

Mines have either allowed hedges to mature as scheduled, or proactively to close contracts for a profit and use the proceeds to repay debt. "To date, fresh hedging in this lower price environment has remained comparatively modest," said Cameron Alexander, manager (precious metals demand), Asia, GFMS Thomson Reuters, responding to a Business Standard query on the hedging positions of mines.

Generally, gold producers/mines refrain from hedging when they feel prices will fall further. Foreseeing a scenario of price rise, they hedge. In the last phase of the bull run, many mines that had sold or hedged production cut their positions (dehedging), which raised prices further. However, due to a sudden crash in gold prices in April 2013 led to miners staying away from hedging when prices averaged $1,326/oz in the September quarter.

In subsequent months, prices corrected, putting pressure on many mines, as prices traded below mining costs for many. The GFMS global average gold mining cost, including corporate expenses, stands at $1,350/oz; even after considering write-downs, it stands at $1,200/oz.

According to the report, efforts to cut costs have begun across the sector. Producers have cut non-essential capital expenditure, put in place wage freezes, cut corporate overheads and, wherever possible, optimised mine plans for higher throughput and higher grade ore processing, leading to reduced mine lives. Further, some large multi-asset producers have divested some of their higher cost mines and begun mine closures. This will afford them a certain degree of flexibility in the current environment.

"If gold prices fall further, we believe this will lead to a growing willingness to hedge, and we, therefore, expect a return to net hedging this year, with larger-scale hedging activity in 2015 and 2016. There may be pressure from shareholders to protect revenue streams in a declining price environment," says Alexander.

The crisis in the mining sector isn't likely to end soon. The fact that mines cut production (to cut losses when prices are low and don't cover costs) could support prices, but that will depend on whether the fall in demand is lower than the fall in production.

Alexander said, "Mine supply is expected to edge lower this year, before decreasing more rapidly in 2015 and 2016. Through 2014, a number of new operations will largely compensate for scheduled decreases in output from ageing mines elsewhere, as well as the supply lost due to the small number of operations closed so far on account of unsustainably high costs. From 2015, we expect to see more widespread closures or suspensions, as declining gold prices cut more deeply into the cost curve for a sustained period."

[Local]

Como é que o custo de mineração rondam os $1200 e o preço do ouro esteve quase sempre abaixo desse valor? Assim seria uma actividade sempre deficitária.

[Zel]

deve ser o custo marginal que muda com a procura

[hermes]

Como é que o custo de mineração rondam os $1200 e o preço do ouro esteve quase sempre abaixo desse valor? Assim seria uma actividade sempre deficitária.

Está explicado parcialmente na própria notícia: escolha do minério mais rico para minerar primeiro. Além disso há outros atritos nomeadamente prever o futuro e custos com o factor trabalho e eventual formação de novos trabalhadores em caso de despedimentos.

[Incognitus]

Como é que o custo de mineração rondam os $1200 e o preço do ouro esteve quase sempre abaixo desse valor? Assim seria uma actividade sempre deficitária.

O custo varia de mina para mina, e pode construir-se uma curva do custo do minério deste género.

[SrSniper]

Gosto de saber todas as opiniões fundamentadas, especialmente em AT, e dou especial atenção às opiniões diferentes da minha
O XAU está neste momento numa fase que considero crucial para saber para que lado tenderá, eu coloquei a minha pataca, mas posso estar errado, e se estiver sairei, sem problemas, mas para já ainda estou em jogo

[Luso11]

A evolução do preço do ouro dependerá em muito da confirmação da reanimação económica na UE e nos US. Em qualquer dos casos, circunscrito ao seu valor como reserva e meio de poupança e muito limitado na sua utilização industrial, dado o seu elevado custo, apostaria numa redução continuada do valor do Ouro - em termos históricos, o ouro continua muito caro, tem uma valorização muito superior a qualquer outra commoditie e negoceia, a título de exemplo, ao dobro do que negociava em 2007.   

Nesta fase temos elevada volatilidade, evoluções muito bruscas do preço ( ex: ontem teve um forte movimento ascendente +2% seguido de uma quebra ainda mais rápida ) e, tendencialmente, com uma variação inversa aos US indices.   

Tenho uma pequena posição curta no ouro.

Bons negócios