Massa monetária

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Em economia, a massa monetária é a quantidade total de dinheiro disponível na economia num determinado momento.<ref>Paul M. Johnson. "Money stock:," A Glossary of Political Economy Terms</ref> There are several ways to define "money", but each includes currency in circulation and demand deposits.</ref>

Os dados sobre a massa monetária são geralmente disponibilizados pelo banco central, e seguidos atentamente por economistas e outros analistas, devido aos seus possíveis efeitos sobre os níveis de preços (inflação). Essa relação está historicamente associada com a teoria quantitativa da moeda, e sinais de uma ligação directa entre a inflação a longo prazo, e o crescimento da massa monetária, o que reforça a ideia de que a [[política monetária pode ser uma ferramenta importante no controlo da inflação.<ref>Milton Friedman (1987). “quantity theory of money”, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, v. 4, pp. 15-19.</ref>

Agregados monetários, genericamente

A moeda é usada como forma de extinguir dívidas, e como uma reserva de valor. Consoante as suas funções e características, o dinheiro é hoje classificado numa de várias medidas, que vão desde uma definição estrita, mais directamente afectada pela política monetária, até uma definição lada. Estas medidas são chamadas "agregados monetários", tendo geralmente um prefixo M, e indo de M0 a M3, de um sentido mais estrito a mais lato.

M0

O M0 é a moeda física mais depósitos junto do banco central. É a medida mais líquida, apenas incluindo activos que podem ser movimentados imediatamente.

O M0 também é visto como sendo dinheiro do banco central, visto que apenas o banco central o pode criar. Todos os outros agregados são vistos como dinheiro da banca comercial, visto que podem ser criados na banca comercial.

M1

O M1 = M0 + saldos de contas à ordem, também imediatamente movimentáveis.

M2

O M2 = M1 + depósitos a prazo de baixos montantes (no caso dos EUA, até $100 000) e fundos de tesouraria não institucionais

M3

O M3 = M2 + depósitos a prazo de grandes montantes + fundos de tesouraria institucionais + repos de curta duração + outros activos líquidos. È a forma mais lata de dinheiro.

Agregados monetários, União Europeia

O Banco Central Europeu define os agregados monetários da seguinte forma:<ref>dos agregados monetários na área Euro.</ref>:

  • M1: Moeda em circulação + depósitos overnight
  • M2: M1 + depósitos com uma maturidade até 2 anos + depósitos desmobilizãveis com um pré-aviso até 3 meses
  • M3: M2 + Repos + Fundos de tesouraria + Instrumentos de dívida com maturidade até 2 anos


Banca fraccional

The different forms of money in government money supply statistics arise from the practice of fractional-reserve banking. Whenever a bank gives out a loan in a fractional-reserve banking system, a new type of money is created. This new type of money is what makes up the non-M0 components in the M1-M3 statistics. In short, there are two types of money in a fractional-reserve banking system<ref name="bis">Bank for International Settlements - The Role of Central Bank Money in Payment Systems. See page 9, titled, "The coexistence of central and commercial bank monies: multiple issuers, one currency": http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss55.pdf A quick quote in reference to the 2 different types of money is listed on page 3. It is the first sentence of the document:

"Contemporary monetary systems are based on the mutually reinforcing roles of central bank money and commercial bank monies."</ref><ref name="ecb">European Central Bank - Domestic payments in Euroland: commercial and central bank money:

http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2000/html/sp001109_2.en.html One quote from the article referencing the two types of money:

"At the beginning of the 20th almost the totality of retail payments were made in central bank money. Over time, this monopoly came to be shared with commercial banks, when deposits and their transfer via checks and giros became widely accepted. Banknotes and commercial bank money became fully interchangeable payment media that customers could use according to their needs. While transaction costs in commercial bank money were shrinking, cashless payment instruments became increasingly used, at the expense of banknotes"</ref>:
  1. central bank money (physical currency)
  2. commercial bank money (money created through loans) - sometimes referred to as checkbook money<ref>Chicago Fed - Our Central Bank: http://www.chicagofed.org/consumer_information/the_fed_our_central_bank.cfm
the reference is found in the "Money Manager" section:
"the Fed works to control money at its source by affecting the ability of financial institutions to "create" checkbook money through loans or investments. The control lever that the Fed uses in this process is the "reserves" that banks and thrifts must hold."</ref>

In the money supply statistics, central bank money is M0 while the commercial bank money is divided up into the M1-M3 components. Generally, the types of commercial bank money that tend to be valued at lower amounts are classified in the narrow category of M1 while the types of commercial bank money that tend to exist in larger amounts are categorized in M2 and M3, with M3 having the largest.


Ligação à inflação

Equação monetária

A massa monetária é importante porque está ligada à inclação via a equação monetária:

MV = PQ
om:
M - massa monetária do país
V - valocidade da moeda (número de vezes que cada unidade monetária é gasta num ano)
P - preço médio de todos os bens e serviços vendidos no ano
Q - quantidade de bens e serviços vendido durante o ano

<-- U.S. M3 money supply as a proportion of gross domestic product. where:

  • velocity = the number of times per year that money turns over in transactions for goods and services (if it is a number it is always simply nominal GDP / money supply)
  • nominal GDP = real Gross Domestic Product × GDP deflator
  • GDP deflator = measure of inflation.

Money supply may be less than or greater than the demand of money in the economy. In other words, if the money supply grows faster than real GDP growth (described as "unproductive debt expansion"), inflation is likely to follow ("inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"). This statement must be qualified slightly, due to changes in velocity. While the monetarists presume that velocity is relatively stable, in fact velocity exhibits variability at business-cycle frequencies, so that the velocity equation is not particularly useful as a short run tool. Moreover, in the US, velocity has grown at an average of slightly more than 1% a year between 1959 and 2005 (which is to be expected due to the increase in population, unless money supply grows very rapidly).

Another aspect of money supply growth that has come under discussion since the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007 is the notion of "asset classes." Economists have noted that M3 growth may not affect all assets equally. For example, following the stock market run up and then decline in 2001, home prices began an historically unusual climb that then dropped sharply in 2007. The dilemma for the Federal Reserve in regulating the money supply is that lowering interest rates to slow price declines in one asset class, e.g. real estate, may cause prices in other asset classes to rise, e.g. commodities.

Percentage

In terms of percentage changes (to a small approximation, the percentage change in a product, say XY is equal to the sum of the percentage changes %X + %Y). So:

%P + %Y = %M + %V

That equation rearranged gives the "basic inflation identity":

%P = %M + %V - %Y

Inflation (%P) is equal to the rate of money growth (%M), plus the change in velocity (%V), minus the rate of output growth (%Y).<ref>"Breaking Monetary Policy into Pieces", May 24 2004, http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040524.htm</ref>

Bank reserves at central bank

Predefinição:Globalize When a central bank is "easing", it triggers an increase in money supply by purchasing government securities on the open market thus increasing available funds for private banks to loan through fractional-reserve banking (the issue of new money through loans) and thus grows the money supply. When the central bank is "tightening", it slows the process of private bank issue by selling securities on the open market and pulling money (that could be loaned) out of the private banking sector. It reduces or increases the supply of short term government debt, and inversely increases or reduces the supply of lending funds and thereby the ability of private banks to issue new money through debt. Note that while the terms "easing" and "tightening" are commonly used to describe the central bank's stated interest rate policy, a central bank has the ability to influence the money supply in a much more direct fashion, as explained earlier in this paragraph.

The operative notion of easy money is that the central bank creates new bank reserves (in the US known as "federal funds"), which let the banks lend out more money. These loans get spent, and the proceeds get deposited at other banks. Whatever is not required to be held as reserves is then lent out again, and through the "multiplying" effect of the fractional-reserve system, loans and bank deposits go up by many times the initial injection of reserves.

However, in the 1970s the reserve requirements on deposits started to fall with the emergence of money market funds, which require no reserves. Then in the early 1990s, reserve requirements were dropped to zero on savings deposits, CDs, and Eurodollar deposit. At present, reserve requirements apply only to "transactions deposits" – essentially checking accounts. The vast majority of funding sources used by private banks to create loans are not limited by bank reserves. Most commercial and industrial loans are financed by issuing large denomination CDs. Money market deposits are largely used to lend to corporations who issue commercial paper. Consumer loans are also made using savings deposits, which are not subject to reserve requirements. These loans can be bunched into securities and sold to somebody else, taking them off of the bank's books.

Predefinição:Update-section Therefore, neither commercial nor consumer loans are any longer limited by bank reserves. Since 1995 the amount of consumer loans has steadily increased:

Individual Consumer Loans at All Commercial Banks, 1990-2008
Net Free or Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions, 1990-2008

In recent years, the irrelevance of open market operations has also been argued by academic economists renowned for their work on the implications of rational expectations, including Robert Lucas, Jr., Thomas Sargent, Neil Wallace, Finn E. Kydland, Edward C. Prescott and Scott Freeman.

Arguments

Assuming that prices do not instantly adjust to equate supply and demand, one of the principal jobs of central banks is to ensure that aggregate (or overall) demand matches the potential supply of an economy. Central banks can do this because overall demand can be controlled by the money supply. By putting more money into circulation, the central bank can stimulate demand. By taking money out of circulation, the central bank can reduce demand.

For instance, if there is an overall shortfall of demand relative to supply (that is, a given economy can potentially produce more goods than consumers wish to buy) then some resources in the economy will be unemployed (i.e., there will be a recession). In this case the central bank can stimulate demand by increasing the money supply. In theory the extra demand will then lead to job creation for the unemployed resources (people, machines, land), leading back to full employment (more precisely, back to the natural rate of unemployment, which is basically determined by the amount of government regulation and is different in different countries). Predefinição:Fact

However, central banks have a difficult balancing act because, if they put too much money into circulation, demand will outstrip an economy's ability to supply so that, even when all resources are employed, demand still cannot be satisfied. In this case, unemployment will fall back to the natural rate and there will then be competition for the last remaining labour, leading to wage rises and inflation. This can then lead to another recession as the central bank takes money out of circulation (raising interest rates in the process) to try to damp down demand.

The main debate amongst economists in the second half of the twentieth century concerned the central banks ability to know how much money to inject into or take out of circulation under different circumstances. Some economists like Milton Friedman believed that the central bank would always get it wrong, leading to wider swings in the economy than if it were just left alone. That is why they advocated a non-interventionist approach.

Current Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has suggested that over the last 10 to 15 years, many modern central banks have become relatively adept at manipulation of the money supply, leading to a smoother business cycle, with recessions tending to be smaller and less frequent than in earlier decades, a phenomenon he terms "The Great Moderation" <ref>FRB: Speech, Bernanke-The Great Moderation-February 20, 2004</ref>.

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