CastelBranco,
O que dizes da previsão do Bill Bonner?
Se já comentaste alguma vez, diz-me que eu vou ler.
Não...nunca comentei
estive a dar uma olhada na diagonal em alguns artigos dele mas ainda não tenho opinião formada sobre aquilo que ele realmente pensa....
Bom encontrei isto dele
Parece estar certo, tal como se tem vindo a falar a recessão aproxima-se, alías as datas tem vindo a ser faladas aqui neste espaço já há vários anos, em como a grande turbulência chegaria por volta de 2017/2018 e que se iria prolongar por muitas décadas.
I’m 100% certain we’re going to enter another recession next year…
I’ve been writing about the warning signs for a long time – falling industrial production, declining trade, falling corporate profits, and rising corporate defaults. And I told you that employment would roll over next. It has. The jobs report today showed that unemployment ticked up to 5%. The employment situation has been getting steadily weaker for the last year.
That’s the last nail in the coffin. Next year is going to be ugly for stocks. But it will be even worse for corporate bonds.
In 2017, we’ll see the first maturities on the huge amount of junk bonds that were issued in the record issuance cycle between 2010 and 2015.
Roughly $125 billion will be due. The default rate across the sector will approach 10%. It will be much more difficult, and maybe impossible, for companies to refinance these obligations. And it will continue to get worse and worse. In 2018, another $250 billion will come due. In 2019, another $350 billion. And that’s before two years of $400 billion or more in junk matures in 2020 and 2021.
If we’re in a recession next year… look out. All of these debts will be seen as unfinanceable. The bond prices of highly leveraged companies will seriously collapse as these liquidity problems spread. As for stocks, the damage to share prices will be much worse.
The fact is, most of these loans should have never been made. These companies are vastly overleveraged. And their financial condition, as a group, hasn’t improved since 2010… It has gotten worse. The huge bubble we’ve seen in junk bonds has financed massive overcapacity, where these companies simply can’t generate enough income to pay back their loans. A reckoning is coming – and it’s long overdue.
