Alguns gráficos para complementar os anteriores do Castel,
Separately, the latest ISI survey suggests some green shoots for Europe.
The GoodInitial jobless claims fell to 259K, down from the prior week and continuing recent low levels.
The Beige Book was mildly positive, providing support for the modest growth scenario.
Framing lumber prices remain strong. (Calculated Risk).
Sentiment remains bullish. Dana Lyons looks at the ISE Call/Put ratio to refute the idea of a “frothy” market.
The BadEmployment benchmark revisions showed a decrease of 150K jobs over a one-year period ending last March (BLS). While this is a preliminary report, it is usually a good estimate of what we will see in the actual revisions this coming March. Essentially, this means that the job growth over the one-year period ending last March was over-estimated by 150K jobs, described as 0.1% of the labor force. It is a much larger percentage of the reported net job growth. I frequently cite this report as the most accurate count, but one that arrives too late to be of interest to those in the news and financial communities. If you missed my challenging quiz on the employment report, please take a look.
Rail traffic had another bad week. Steven Hansen (GEI) reports on the 5.7% decline for the month of August.
ISM non-manufacturing dropped to 51.4. As Bespoke notes, this was the biggest monthly decline since 2008.