Rússia - Tópico principal

[I. I. Kaspov]

Pois, o camarada Costa disse há poucos minutos:


«Costa pede desculpa por dinheiro em envelopes escondidos no gabinete de Vitor Escária

António Costa começou por reiterar a surpresa pelo processo judicial com "suspeitas muito graves".

"Sem querer substituir-me à justiça, que confio e respeito, não posso deixar de compartilhar que a apreensão de envelopes de dinheiro no gabinete de uma pessoa que escolhi me magoa com a confiança traída, envergonha-me perante os portugueses e tenho o dever de pedir desculpa", disse.»


https://www.publico.pt/2023/11/11/politica/noticia/seguro-sanches-defende-galamba-nao-condicoes-manter-governo-2069871#100871

[pedras11]

 

Autêntica anedota.

Em desespero os “amigos” PS e PSD formarão um bloco central, caso não haja um governo estável.

“Farinha do mesmo saco”, azul.

[I. I. Kaspov]

Autêntica anedota.

Em desespero os “amigos” PS e PSD formarão um bloco central, caso não haja um governo estável.

“Farinha do mesmo saco”, azul.

Pois, poderá acontecer...   

[vbm]

Gostei de ouvir o Nuno Rogeiro no Leste-Oeste.
Foi crivado por n perguntas pelos europeus de Bruxelas.
Esclareceu a perspectiva política da situação jurídica. Não sem
declarar, espectacular mente, que se o país quiser voltar
atrás nas decisões que tomou pode fazê-lo simples
mente tomando outras decisões porque,
só escritas no Diário da República
têm validade! -:))

[Reg]

O termo rus', com o qual as populações eslavas e fínicas  se juntaram na planice para nao serem escravos! dos outros


   isto e identidade forte!


povos unidos na planice para nao serem dos outros vivem nas montanhas do ocidente  sejam alemaes.. ou suecos ou chineses...


planice do leste tinha escravatura


ao contrario do egipto de moises!  nunca teve escravos...   mas servos


No final do século 15, o nome “Rossia” surgiu em várias fontes europeias. O mapa feito pelo cartógrafo italiano Fra Mauro, na década de 1450, registra certos territórios como “Rossia Vermelha”, “Rossia Negra”, “Rossia Branca”. Nas terras russas, a palavra era usada em moedas e nas escrituras.


Mas a grafia variou muito durante os séculos 16 e 17: Росия, Русия, Россия (Rosia, Rusia, Rossia). A decisão final de se grafar “Россия” (“Rossia”, com dois “s”) foi tomada por Pedro, o Grande, que, em 1721, aceitando o título de imperador, nomeou o país de “Rossiskaia Imperia” (“Império Russo”)


antes russia ser imperio ja havia 3 russias...


muitas vezes vemos menções à “antiga Rus”. Ainda é um mistério se os antigos russos realmente chamavam a si próprios de “Rus”, como um “povo rus”. Também não se pode dizer que esse tenha sido o nome de um país.

[Reg]

Nos anais de São Bertin (um manuscrito francês do século IX), lê-se: “Há povos chamados de ‘Rhos’, e seu rei, chamado Khakan”.

Al-Masudi (896-956), um historiador e geógrafo árabe, escreveu: “Os bizantinos os chamam de “Rusiya”, e esta palavra significa ‘vermelho’”.

Os bizantinos usavam a palavra grega “Rosia” (Ῥωσία) em referência ao povo das terras ao norte do Mar Negro. O primeiro uso da palavra “Rosia” é atribuído ao imperador Constantino VII (no século 10).

Há, no entanto, outra designação para essas terras: “Ruthenia”, palavra que vem do sueco antigo “Rōþin-”. “Rutênia” é como a Rússia era chamada em muitas fontes europeias em língua latina. Há fortes evidências de que o radical escandinavo antigo “Rōþ-” (que significa "remar") seja a origem da palavra “Rus”.

Na Crônica dos Anos Passados (criada em Kiev no século 12) lê-se sobre o ano 862: “Eles foram para o exterior, para os varegues russos: esses varegues, em particular, eram conhecidos como ‘russes’, assim como alguns são chamados de suecos e outros normandos, ingleses e gotlandeses…”

Nas terras russas, a partir do século 9, a palavra “Rus” é usada para se referir às terras de Kiev. Mais tarde, após a invasão mongol-tártara, as terras a nordeste de Kiev – Vladímir, Súzdal e, mais tarde, Moscou – também se autointitulavam “Rus”. Ivan 3° de Moscou passou a usar o título de “Gospodar” (“Governante”) de toda a Rus em 1493.

O nome “Rússia”


nome ucrania e russia...tambem

[Reg]

portanto ucranianos sao  pessoas foram aparendo no ocidente da russia kiev  e ficaram viver na fronteira


uma fuga do egipto polones e da sua servidao!

em busca terra prometida!


muitas dessas pessoas eram judeus...


as tribos do egipto do leste...

The rich history shaped genetic diversity in the population living in the country of Ukraine today. As people have moved and settled across this land, they have contributed unique genetic variation that varies across the country. While the ethnic Ukrainians constitute approximately more than three-quarters of the total population, this majority is not uniform. A large Russian minority compose approximately one-fifth of the total population, with higher concentration in the southeast of the country. Smaller minority groups are historically present in different parts of the country: Belarusians, Bulgarians, Crimean Tatars, Greeks, Gagauz, Hungarians, Jews, Moldovans, Poles, Romanians, Roma (Gypsies), and others [


terra prometida e uma fronteira!

[Reg]

O nacionalismo da OUN teve seu centro geográfico na Galícia. Mas há uma longa tradição de elaboração nacional na Galícia, a partir da segunda metade do século XIX, especialmente em Lviv, e há outros centros de nacionalismo ucraniano também no Império Russo, em Kiev e Kharkiv.




  Lviv era terra de montes judeus.. 


Bandera era principalmente um combatente. Como tal, passou para a história e para o imaginário nacionalista ucraniano. Ele não era em si um teórico do nacionalismo.


um admirador de Mussolini - foi o porta-voz de uma vocação messiânica do nacionalismo ucraniano. Seu nacionalismo se definiu como "integral": polonófobo, antissemita, russofóbico. Polonófobo e antissemita em terras, como a Galícia e a Volínia - ou seja, as regiões ocidentais da Ucrânia -, multiétnicas, onde era abundante a presença de judeus e poloneses.


  no fundo era anti povo da fronteira.. pouco sobrava dos fronteiricos


A Segunda Guerra Mundial, nessas terras, foi particularmente brutal, com a eliminação de judeus e poloneses. A componente judaica foi praticamente eliminada nessas regiões pelos nazistas alemães durante a ocupação, com a decisiva colaboração dos colaboracionistas ucranianos.


Enquanto o êxodo cruzado de poloneses e ucranianos através das fronteiras entre a Ucrânia soviética e a Polônia - em vista de uma espécie de homogeneidade étnica - continuou muito além do fim da Segunda Guerra Mundial.

[Reg]

nacionalismo ucraniano

continua....

 identificar historicamente a posição da Igreja Greco-Católica Ucraniana com o nacionalismo radical. Posso citar, por exemplo, a figura do metropolita Andrei Szeptycki, que protegeu os judeus, ou a figura do padre greco-católico Omeljan Kovch, que morreu no campo de concentração de Majdanek por sua obra em favor dos judeus.


O primeiro dos monumentos a Bandera e outros combatentes da UPA foi erguido já na década de 1990 - portanto, no período ainda soviético.



Isso explica como, a partir de 1991, ou seja, a partir da independência da Ucrânia, com a transformação, na prática, das fronteiras administrativas da União Soviética em fronteiras nacionais entre Rússia, Bielorrússia e Ucrânia, os sucessivos governos, ainda que de formas muito diferentes, tiveram de acertar as contas com a exigência de construir um panteão e uma história nacional, recorrendo também a figuras divisivas.


 territórios do que hoje é a Ucrânia, como "terras de sangue". Pensamos apenas na Primeira Guerra Mundial, depois na revolução bolchevique, na guerra civil, na carestia de 1932-33, na invasão nazista, nos massacres entre ucranianos e poloneses, no Holocausto...: tudo isso significou milhões de mortes em todos os lados e o afloramento de sentimentos profundos e de uma complexidade tal que já não pode ser reduzida a personalizações, a mitos mais ou menos inventados, a simplificações ideológicas.



O componente nacionalista tende a tornar a história da Ucrânia muito mais homogênea do que realmente foi e é. Como mencionei, a história das regiões que compõem a Ucrânia de hoje é muito diversificada. Isso não quer dizer que a Ucrânia não tenha e não possa ter a legitimidade de Estado: de jeito nenhum!


 Ucrânia é um estado no plural, como aliás tantos estados do mundo, especialmente nas chamadas regiões de falha, ou seja, onde os povos e as culturas se encontram. Não é por acaso que o topônimo "Ukraïna" significa "terra na fronteira"

Spiridon Kisljakov, que viveu em Kiev, onde morreu em 1930. Trata-se de uma figura extraordinária. Foi capelão militar na Primeira Guerra Mundial.

 

Daquela experiência, ele voltou fortemente crítico das Igrejas que alimentaram aquela guerra com suas palavras. Para o monge cristão Spiridon, uma Igreja que toma partido a favor da guerra não é uma Igreja evangélica. Parece-me uma mensagem fortemente atual.

[Reg]

voltando as RUssias

sim eram varias... russias...

Em 988, o príncipe Vladimir de Kiev recebeu o cristianismo, vindo de Bizâncio; e logo todo a Rus' se converteu. Depois que em 1240 os mongóis devastaram Kiev, o metropolita da cidade e seus sucessores buscaram refúgio na Rússia, colocando suas sedes em várias cidades e, finalmente, fixando-a em Moscou, que havia sido fundada apenas em 1147. Em 29 de maio de 1453 os turcos otomanos conquistaram Constantinopla, pondo fim ao Império Romano do Oriente. Moscou, por sua vez, continuava a crescer, como uma potência política e religiosa, e nasceu o mito que a considerava como uma "terceira Roma", que no campo eclesial deveria quase substituir a primeira, aquela papista, e a segunda, ex-bizantina. Em meados do século seguinte, Ivan, o Terrível, derrotou definitivamente os tártaros invasores e proclamou-se "czar".

e tudo questao de FE...


ucrania joga defesa

russia ao ataque


espanha joga ataque

portugal joga defesa!

[Reg]

A União Europeia é então, a nosso ver, um Estado federal em construção. Isso significa que se a União Europeia continuar a progredir como o tem feito até agora os Estados que dela são membros passarão – se é que não passaram já – de Estados soberanos a Estados federados de um novo Estado. No entanto, outros afirmam que a União é uma Federação e não um Estado federal. Eles acrescentam ao conceito dúbio de soberania partilhada o de constitucionalismo multi-nível. Sim, porque apesar dos franceses e dos holandeses terem rejeitado uma constituição europeia por referendo em 2005, o Tratado de Lisboa – nas palavras de Valéry Giscard d’Estaing – foi a mesma coisa com outro nome.

veremos se imperio de bruxelas.... passa teste... nas ucranias e catalunhas  que vao vir...


O tempo, em todo o caso, está do lado dos juristas que defendem a superioridade do Tribunal de Justiça da União Europeia face ao Tribunal de Karlsruhe. Porque à medida que o tempo passa a União Europeia vem adquirindo mais competências e os Estados têm vindo a perdê-las. Foi esta constatação que provocou o Brexit.



As instituições oficiais da União Europeia juram a pés juntos que a questão catalã é uma questão interna espanhola. Porém, oficiosamente, pela calada, fomentam e apoiam vários políticos catalães, o caso de Puigdemont é sintomático mas não é o único.

A União Europeia sempre teve o desejo de criar a Europa das regiões, o que em alguns pontos tem sentido prático. Uma integração entre o Minho e a Galiza e uma integração entre o Algarve e a Andaluzia fazem mais sentido do que uma integração entre o Minho e o Algarve ou entre a Galiza e a Andaluzia. Os Estados Nação históricos são causadores de guerras e violência para os federalistas europeus, a sua marginalização e mesmo desaparecimento não são problemáticos. Para os burocratas em Bruxelas é indiferente se a Catalunha faz parte de Espanha ou não, o importante é que ela faça parte da União Europeia.

[Reg]

Em Madrid não há a mesma coragem que existe em Londres, e as elites espanholas continuarão a fazer acrobacia entre o Estado espanhol e a União Europeia. A problemática catalã é reveladora, demonstra os limites do sofismo das competências, a questão catalã é a questão da soberania, que é tão actual no século XXI como o foi nos séculos passados.


Bismarck terá dito que a nação mais forte do mundo era a Espanha; segundo ele os espanhóis estavam sempre a tentar destruí-la mas não conseguiam. Este século, quiçá mais do que nunca, voltará a pôr à prova o adágio do prussiano.

[I. I. Kaspov]

Nem toda a gente quer guerrear:


«Swimming rivers and faking illness to escape Ukraine’s draft

    Published

    3 hours ago

Related Topics

    Russia-Ukraine war

Erik
Image caption,
Erik, a 26-year-old musician, says he swam a river to escape into Moldova
By Oana Marocico and Kelvin Brown
BBC Eye Investigations

Nearly 20,000 men have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the war to avoid being drafted, the BBC has discovered.

Some have swum dangerous rivers to leave the country. Others have simply walked out under cover of darkness.

Another 21,113 men attempted to flee but were caught by the Ukrainian authorities, Kyiv confirmed.

After Russia's invasion, most men aged 18-60 were banned from leaving. But data obtained by the BBC reveals dozens have made it out daily.

We have spoken to several men who have escaped in order to join family abroad, study, or simply make a living.

"What am I supposed to do [in Ukraine]?" one man, Yevgeny, said. "Not everyone is a warrior… you don't need to keep the whole country locked up. You can't lump everyone together like they did in the Soviet Union."

The BBC has established - by requesting data of illegal border crossings from neighbouring Romania, Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia - that 19,740 men illegally crossed into these countries between February 2022 and 31 August 2023.

While we do not know how those men escaped, we do know what methods were used by the other 21,113 who were caught trying. The majority - 14,313 - were attempting to walk or swim across the border, and the remaining 6,800 relied on fraudulently obtained official paperwork stating fake exemptions such as fabricated illnesses, the Ukrainian authorities said.

Those who are excluded from conscription include men with medical issues, those with caring responsibilities, and fathers to three or more children.
Tisa river
Image caption,
Many have died trying to flee Ukraine by swimming the unpredictable Tisa River

In August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called out the "corrupt decisions" made by the country's medical military commissions, which he said had resulted in a ten-fold increase in exemptions since February 2022. He announced that all regional officials in charge of military conscription had been removed, and more than 30 people faced criminal charges.

The president's parliamentary representative, Fedir Venislavskyi, acknowledged to the BBC that the problem was serious.

"The government realises that this phenomenon is not isolated and that it is widespread. But unfortunately, I would emphasise that corruption is very resilient," he said - adding that Ukraine was doing "everything possible to keep the number of corruption cases to a minimum".

Mr Venislavskyi said the number of men who had left or had tried to leave was having no impact on the war effort.

"I am convinced that the resilience and readiness of Ukrainians to defend their independence, sovereignty and freedom is 95-99%," Mr Venislavskyi told the BBC.

"Those who try to avoid mobilisation are about 1-5%. They are definitely not critical to the defence of Ukraine." He said there were no plans to radically increase the number of those eligible for mobilisation.

The 40,000-plus number of men who have fled, or tried to flee, could represent a significant proportion of the men Ukraine needs to replenish its army. In August, US officials estimated the Ukrainian military death toll to be up to 70,000 - although Kyiv won't give a figure.

The country also does not release official figures on the size of its army. But the new Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, told the Yalta European Strategy forum in September that there are more than 800,000 in the Ukrainian armed forces.

Some of the escapes have been dramatic.

One video shows a man swimming across the Dniester River towards Moldova, with Moldovan border guards urging him across to safety. Another shows the potentially fatal consequences - bodies of men being pulled ashore, having drowned trying to cross the Tisa River between Ukraine and Romania.

But Yevgeny, a construction worker from Kyiv who we met in a Moldovan immigration centre, said he simply walked across that country's border - the most popular route out, our figures suggest. It is then relatively straightforward for escapees of the war to claim asylum.

Yevgeny had felt trapped in Ukraine he told us - younger men and those with military experience had been called up for conscription first.

It had been difficult for him in the meantime to find a well-paying job, "because everything is geared towards the war" and yet "electricity, fuel - everything's become more expensive".

After being processed by the Moldovan police, he applied for asylum - something that must be done within 24 hours of entering the country to avoid a criminal record.
BBC iPlayer

Ukraine's draft dodgers

Thousands of Ukrainian men have joined the call to fight for their country since Russia's invasion in February last year. But what of those who decided military service was not for them?

Watch now on BBC iPlayer (UK Only) or YouTube
BBC iPlayer

It was at the same asylum and immigration centre that we met Erik, a 26-year-old musician from Kharkiv, who says he crossed over to Moldova by walking across the plains of Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region and then swimming across a river.

While fake exemptions may be possible to get hold of, Erik's experience suggests genuine paperwork may prove more difficult to get.

Following complex abdominal surgery for peritonitis when he was younger, Erik says he needs to follow a special diet which precludes him from serving in the army. But he says when war broke out it proved impossible to get a medical exemption certificate.

"They pass the responsibility from one department to another: 'Go here, go there.' I spent half a year trying to get a certificate [to prove] that I was unfit, despite having all the tests in my hands. Eventually my patience ran out."

Erik eventually made it to the US, where he was reunited with his wife and their four-year-old daughter.
Erik reunited with his daughterImage source, Supplied
Image caption,
Erik reunited with his daughter in the US

Another man, who we are calling Vlad, did manage to get hold of a valid exemption - but says he could then not get the border guards to take it seriously.

He says he was excited to have been accepted on a foreign university course, and had been granted a student permit to leave Ukraine, but soon realised that this was not going to suffice.

"I thought it didn't work out because I got a tricky checkpoint. I went to another one, and another one. They laughed at me and sent me home. I realised that this piece of paper - this 'permission' - is pointless for a border officer, they don't care at all."

Instead Vlad left the country by swimming across the Tisa River into Romania.
Yevgeny
Image caption,
Yevgeny says he had no viable employment in Ukraine

Vlad reached the Ukrainian side of the border with the help of a friend, but another man, who we are calling Danilo, says he used the services of someone via Telegram who was organising a crossing of the Tisa.

The messaging app is a popular platform for smugglers to advertise their services, the BBC has established. An undercover reporter working for our investigation, who we are calling Andrey, spent a month corresponding with smugglers, posing as a Ukrainian keen to leave the country.

He discovered at least six Telegram groups - with membership ranging from 100 to several thousand people. He says they offered a range of services, from adding pretend children to his family, to the most expensive option - the medical exemption certificate, known as the "white ticket" which would allow him to leave and return to Ukraine whenever he liked.

He was told it would take up to a week to make, and would cost him about $4,300 (£3,472) - the price included a bribe to the official making the ticket.

Parliamentary representative Mr Venislavskyi told us that the threat posed by fake documentation - and the difficulties in some cases of obtaining real paperwork that is taken seriously by border guards - should be eradicated within the next year or two by a new digitised system.

All those we spoke to had been successful in their attempts to leave the country, but those who are caught by the Ukrainian authorities risk a fine of $92-230, and a prison sentence of up to eight years.

It isn't clear whether those who flee and choose to return to Ukraine in the future might also face retrospective punishment, but Mr Venislavskyi said he didn't believe that would be in the national interest.

Danilo argued that Ukrainians should be allowed to make their own decisions.

"Because I still believe that each person chooses their life's purpose. For some, the meaning is in defending their territories, for others, it's about protecting themselves and their families. Some want to create, build businesses, contribute to the state's economy.

"I believe that no matter what, my role isn't on the battlefield.

He said he hoped that the Ukrainian authorities would encourage those who have left to return when the war ends, rather than punish them.

"Without people - moreover without smart people who earn good money and pay good money to the treasury - it is harder for the state to exist."

With no end in sight to the war with Russia, it is not clear when that issue will become relevant. In the meantime, as this turns into a war of attrition, Ukraine needs all the soldiers it can get.»


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904

[I. I. Kaspov]

Bismarck terá dito que a nação mais forte do mundo era a Espanha; segundo ele os espanhóis estavam sempre a tentar destruí-la mas não conseguiam. Este século, quiçá mais do que nunca, voltará a pôr à prova o adágio do prussiano.

Bem observado! Não fazia ideia nenhuma q Bismarck tivesse dito isso!   

[vbm]

Espanha não vale um caracol.
Nem falam, só hablam.

[vbm]

Agora com telefone vermelho
Pequim - Washington, ou Rússia
europeíza-se ou subjuga-se à China.

[I. I. Kaspov]

Um artigo interessante:


«Putin’s “Silver Bullet” for Africa’s Energy Crunch

philbutler's Photo

by philbutler

Thursday, Nov 23, 2023 - 15:49


Africa is the fastest-growing energy market in the world. The continent is on the verge of geometric economic growth, but until recently, almost 1.5 billion people had no access to domestic electric power. Various investments, initiatives, and projects by Russia, China, and other nations now vie for top positions geostrategically and economically.

At a plenary session of Russian Energy Week in October, President Vladimir Putin stressed the necessity for Russia to ensure energy security on the old continent. The Russian leader spoke of the comprehensive Russia-Africa energy cooperation. As a point of reference, Mr. Putin mentioned Egypt’s EL Dabaa NPP, the construction of which is currently ahead of schedule. El Dabaa is a template for what Russia and Egypt hope will be the “silver bullet” African nations desperately need to surmount current and future energy needs. The nuclear power plant’s financing, construction, and long-term importance are interesting for many reasons.

Putin's

The Russians are genuinely cooperating with Egyptian specialists to build a critical energy production facility. This plant is being built from scratch, and the program behind El Dabaa includes training, maintenance support, and aspects that will help guide Egypt into sovereign energy development for the next century. Ket to this new cooperative initiative is a low-interest Russian loan of roughly $25 billion to complete the $30 billion project. However, the Rosatom-backed project’s potential is invaluable monetary and geopolitical. Construction of all four units at the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is expected to be completed by 2028-2029. But even before the plant’s launch, Vladimir Putin expects Russia’s initiative to branch out.

The integrated and systemic approach by the Russians translates into a fantastic competitive advantage. This and other advantages were highlighted by Putin at the sixth Russian Energy Week (REW) themed, ”The New Reality of Global Energy: Building the Future.” Some 4,000-plus participants from more than 60 countries attended as the Russian president laid out an energy future that will only be possible with the cooperative approach the Russian efforts welcome and incorporate.

For many experts, safe nuclear power is the best answer to the world’s energy needs and reverses the harmful impacts that threaten accelerated global warming. While China and India have solar power projects ramping up in Africa, nuclear is the only solution that averts what I would call “over engineering” for our energy needs. China, India, and Russia have hydroelectric interests in Africa. However, as we’ve seen in North America and elsewhere, the negative aspects of giant hydro plants, compared to the relatively minuscule energy outputs, are even worse than wind farms.

To date, Rosatom has bilateral agreements with nearly 20 African countries. If the original deal can be redrawn, one project in South Africa could alleviate the severe power crunch this key BRICS nation suffers from. Crippling blackouts and power outages curtail industrial growth in South Africa and across the continent. If South Africa can replicate the ongoing success and eventual launch of a plant like El-Dabaa, the result will be an economic and social miracle. El-Dabaa incorporates the most advanced technology available anywhere on Earth. The plant’s generating capacity is equivalent to 1200 MW per unit using generation III+ VVER-1200 reactors (pressurized water reactors). Four units are in various stages of completion.

Only recently, Burkina Faso, Mali, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia signed nuclear energy cooperation agreements. Russia’s dominance in this space is so striking that Washington think tanks and the Western power elites seem panic-stricken. In September, the Jamestown Foundation republished an article from the Eurasia Daily Monitor entitled “Russia Eyes Civilian Nuclear Markets in Africa.” The piece is a denial template similar to the stories about how Putin would never finish the Kerch Bridge project. Competition from the West has digressed to the point where negative propaganda and global thermonuclear war are the only strategies left. If Russia and Rosatom can overcome the legal battles holding up NPP construction in South Africa, an El-Dabba prototype will jumpstart an inestimable economic and social growth case. This interview with the CEO of Rosatom Central and Southern Africa, Ryan Collyer, highlights most of the facts.

The future of Africa and the wider world will be determined by multipolar input, cooperation, and applying the right technologies/strategies. Right now, Africa and the world are in desperate need of a silver bullet to slay a raging monster: inadequate models. The Russians may possess just such a solution.

An earlier version of this story appeared in NEO

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-11-23/putins-silver-bullet-africas-energy-crunch

[I. I. Kaspov]

Interessante: neste momento parecem ser ca. 18:20 em Moscovo (+ 3 h) e 10:20 em Nova York (- 5 h)...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTC_offset

[I. I. Kaspov]

Uma notícia interessante e o respectivo comentário pertinente do Dr Mamdouh G Salameh:


«Russia Takes Control of Iraq’s Biggest Oil Discovery for 20 Years

By Simon Watkins - Nov 28, 2023, 6:00 PM CST

    The Eridu field is the biggest oil find in Iraq in the last 20 years.

    March saw Iraq’s state-owned Dhi Qar Oil Company (DQOC) formally approve the development of Block 10’s reserves, including for the whole Eridu field.

    Inpex' decision to sell its 40 percent stake in the Block 10 region that contains the huge Eridu discovery leaves the way clear for Lukoil to take total control of the entire oil-rich area.


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Iraqi oil

Preliminary estimates suggested that Iraq’s Eridu oil field holds between 7-10 billion barrels of reserves. Senior Russian oil industry sources spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com last week said the true figure may well be 50 percent more than the higher figure of that band. In either event, the Eridu field - part of Iraq’s Block 10 exploration and development region – is the biggest oil find in Iraq in the last 20 years, and Russia wants to control all of it, alongside its chief geopolitical ally, China. This is in line with Moscow and Beijing’s objective of keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq to keep Baghdad closer to the new Iran-Saudi axis and to “end [the] Western hegemony in the Middle East [that] will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise,” as exclusively related to OilPrice.com. The approval last week by Iraq’s Oil Ministry for Inpex – the major oil company of key U.S. ally Japan – to sell its 40 percent stake in the Block 10 region that contains the huge Eridu discovery leaves the way clear for Lukoil to take total control of the entire oil-rich area.

Lukoil had held a 60 percent stake in the entirety of Block 10, with the remainder held by the Japanese firm. However, from March it has been looking for ways to push Inpex out of the Block, and with it the last remnants of Western influence in the area. March saw Iraq’s state-owned Dhi Qar Oil Company (DQOC) formally approve the development of Block 10’s reserves, including for the whole Eridu field. Block 10 lies in the southeast of Iraq, approximately 120 km west of the key oil export route from Basra, and just south of the huge oil fields in and around Nassirya. The contract for Block 10 awarded to Lukoil and Inpex back in 2012 in Iraq’s fourth licensing round gives a relatively high remuneration per barrel rate of US$5.99, although at that point the vast Eridu field had not been discovered. In 2021, after some preliminary testing, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said it expected peak production of at minimum 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Eridu by, at that point, 2027. The senior Russian oil industry sources exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, believe peak production could run at least 100,000 bpd higher than the previous figure, contingent on whether the new reserves estimates are correct, although given delays in development since 2021, the date at which that will be achieved is now toward the end of 2029.
Related: Why Gasoline Prices Fall Almost Every Year Between August and November

Back in 2021 – at least before the U.S. formally withdrew from Iraq by ending its ‘combat mission’ there at the end of December – it was clear that Washington knew what Russia and China were up to long term in the country, and how the U.S. was being manipulated by Iraq. In a moment of insight, the then-U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Dana Stroul, said: “It’s […] clear that certain countries and partners would want to hedge and test what more they might be able to get from the United States by testing the waters of deeper co-operation with the Chinese or the Russians, particularly in the security and military space.” This view could equally have been aimed, not just at Iraq, but also at most other countries in the Middle East at that time - most notably Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. That said, this profound insight had no effect on Washington at that point, and posed no impediment at all to either Russia or China’s continued drive to entirely push the U.S. out of the Middle East, as analysed in depth in in my new book on the new global oil market order.

For Iraq, the endgame has been apparent from Russia’s effective takeover of the oil and gas industry of the country’s troublesome semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north. This occurred in the chaos that followed the brutal put-down of the region after 93 percent of its inhabitants voted for full independence from Iraq in September 2017. Russian control over Iraqi Kurdistan was secured via the state’s corporate proxy, Rosneft, through three means, as also analysed in full in my new book. Subsequent to this, Russia has manipulated the region into such a toxic standoff with the central Iraq government in Baghdad that the final stage of the plan to effectively incorporate the Iraqi Kurdistan region into the rest of Iraq, is now proceeding at full throttle. Given this, Russia and China are now moving to secure their dominance over the rest of Iraq, with the removal of Inpex from the vast Eridu field being only the latest example of their broader strategy at work.

Multiple field exploration and development deals, plus countless lower-profile ‘contract-only’ agreements, with Russian and Chinese firms allow the two countries plenty of scope to leverage these out into a harder geopolitical presence across the country, including into the very fabric of its key infrastructure. At a recent Iraq Cabinet meeting, it was agreed that the country should now give its full support to rolling out all aspects of the wide-ranging ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’ signed in December 2021, but agreed in principle more than a year before that. This agreement is very similar in scope and scale to the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and fully examined in my new book.

A key part of both deals is that China has first refusal on all oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects that come up in Iraq for the duration of the deal, and that it is given at least a 30 percent discount on all oil, gas, and petrochemicals it buys. Another key part of the Iraq-China Framework Agreement is that Beijing is allowed to build factories across the country, with a corollary build-out of supportive infrastructure. This includes - importantly for its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ – railway links, all overseen by its own management staff from Chinese companies on the ground in Iraq. The railway infrastructure in Iraq will be completed out after the network in Iran has been finished, and this began in earnest in late 2020 with the contract to electrify the main 900-kilometre railway connecting Tehran to the north-eastern city of Mashhad. As an adjunct to this, plans were put in place to establish a Tehran-Qom-Isfahan high-speed train line and to extend this upgraded network up to the north-west through Tabriz. Tabriz - home to several key sites relating to oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and the starting point for the Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline – is to be a pivot point of the 2,300-kilometre New Silk Road that links Urumqi (the capital of China’s western Xinjiang Province) to Tehran, and will connect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan along the way, before it then runs into Europe, via Turkey.

These plans, in turn, link into corollary plans by Russia and China to turn the entire southeast region of Iraq - that culminates with the major oil export hub of Basra - into a region criss-crossed by Russian- and Chinese-controlled oil and gas fields and transportation hubs, as also analysed in full in my new book. One such cornerstone deal was Baghdad’s approval of nearly IQD1 trillion (US$700 million) for infrastructure projects in the city of Al-Zubair just to the south of Basra. The city’s Governor at the time the deal was struck, Abbas Al-Saadi, said China’s heavy involvement in the projects was part of the broad-based ‘oil-for-reconstruction and investment’ agreement – part of the general ‘oil-for-projects’ idea signed by Baghdad and Beijing in September 2019.

The Al-Zubair announcement came shortly after the awarding by Baghdad of another major contract to another Chinese company to build a civilian airport to replace the military base in the capital of the southern oil rich Dhi Qar governorate. The Dhi Qar region includes two of Iraq’s potentially biggest oil fields – Gharraf and Nassiriya – and China has said it intends to complete the airport by 2024. This region is also to the immediate north of the huge Eridu oil field and to the northwest of Basra. The airport project will include the construction of multiple cargo buildings and roads linking the airport to the city’s town centre and separately to other key oil areas in southern Iraq. This, in turn, followed yet another deal that will involve Chinese companies building out Al-Sadr City, located near Baghdad, at a cost of between US$7-8 billion, also within the framework of the 2019 ‘oil-for-reconstruction and investment’ agreement.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com»


«Mamdouh Salameh on November 29 2023 said:
With the China-Russia-Iran axis on the ascendency in the Middle East and with the United States’ influence in the region in retreat, it is inevitable that both China and Russia will take advantage of the situation to bolster their oil and gas position in Iraq which is the last oil prize in the world.

After all China is the largest investor in Iraq’s oil industry and the second biggest importer of Iraqi crude while Russia controls oil assets in Iraqi Kurdistan. Moreover, Russia enjoys extremely close relations with Iraq dating back to the 1950s.

And when we add Iran’s political influence in Iraq and it’s dependence on Iran’s gas and electricity supplies, the control of Iraq’s oil industry by China and Russia is virtually complete.

Moreover, the growing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the solid relations between Russia and China on the one hand with Saudi Arabia and UAE on the other, mean that the China-Russia alliance is on the way to replace the United States in the whole Gulf region and this includes the spectacular oil wealth of the region.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Takes-Control-of-Iraqs-Biggest-Oil-Discovery-for-20-Years.html

[I. I. Kaspov]

Mais problemas para a Ucrânia...


«"Has Kyiv Already Lost?" – Germany's Welt Newspaper Claims Ukraine Is "Crumbling" & That Orbán Was Right But "Nobody Dares Admit It"

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Dec 06, 2023 - 07:00 AM


Authored by John Cody via ReMix News,

Germany’s Welt newspaper, perhaps the most popular publication in the country, is well known for its pro-Ukraine stance and ran numerous articles in the past about the likely success of Ukraine’s military offensive against Russia.

However, in a column published yesterday by the paper’s chief correspondent, Sascha Lehnartz, the assessment of Ukraine’s chances in the war is decidedly bleak.

Entitled “Has Kyiv already lost?” the article describes Ukraine’s military growing increasingly despondent to the point that the country’s commander-in-chief admits there is a “stalemate” at the front.

    “Winter is just around the corner. The counteroffensive seems to have failed. The allies are weary. And since the beginning of November at the latest, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a new opponent who was not necessarily to be expected: his own commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhny,” writes Die Welt.

Welt is referring to a recent interview in the Economist, in which Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, stated that “(a)s in the First World War, we have reached a technical level that puts us in a stalemate situation” and that in order for Ukraine to win, it would take miracle weapons to defeat the Russians, “like Chinese gunpowder.”

The paper details how the admission from Zaluzhny is a clear embarrassment for Zelensky.

    “Everyone is tired and there are different opinions, regardless of their status,” said Zelensky in response to the comments at a press conference with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding:

    “But it’s not a stalemate.” His deputy bureau chief, Ihor Zhovkva said that talks of a stalemate “makes the aggressor’s job easier” and causes “panic” among Ukraine’s allies.

Soldiers of Ukraine’s National Guard 1st brigade Bureviy (Hurricane) practice during combat training at a military training ground in the north of Ukraine, Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

In response, Welt wrote that the growing divisions between Ukraine’s armed forces and the government over the status of the war could mark a major turning point.

“The dispute between the president and the top military officer shows that the unified home front in Ukraine is crumbling. And every doubt expressed in Kyiv about Ukraine’s prospects of success is being reinforced in the corridors of European and American government headquarters,” writes Lehnartz.

Welt also points out that political victories of various populist leaders within Europe will likely create severe difficulties in terms of ongoing material and financial support to Ukraine. A deepening budget crisis in Germany also could mean further cuts to Ukraine’s budget, placing the country’s war effort at risk.

“The recent election victories of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Robert Fico in Slovakia — both of whom reject further arms sales to Ukraine — are also symptoms of growing war weariness in the West,” writes Welt.

“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni admitted this in September when she was tricked on the phone by a Moscow comedian duo: she saw ‘a lot of fatigue on all sides.’ Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has already declared the Ukrainian strategy ‘failed.’ Everyone knows that, but no one (except Orbán) dares to say it out loud,” the paper continues.

Orbán has long been criticized for his peace efforts in Ukraine, warning that Russia cannot be defeated because it is a nuclear power and that thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are losing their fathers and brothers due to a war of attrition.

Welt then lists the major obstacles facing Ukraine on the battlefield, noting that Ukraine has retaken less than 0.25 percent of the territory it wishes to recapture from Russia during the counteroffensive. As a result, ‘the number of those who believe that Ukraine can still ‘win’ this war, i.e., achieve the liberation of all its territories occupied by Russia, is dwindling day by day. Russia’s Plan A, to take Kyiv in a few days and rule more or less directly, has ‘failed miserably,’ says James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the British think tank Chatham House. ‘But Plan B appears to be working: waiting for Ukraine’s allies to give up and go home.'”

...

Tatiana Burchik, center, mother of Ukrainian soldier Vadym “Gagarin” Belov, says her last goodbyes to her son near his coffin at a cemetery in Polonne, Khmelnytskyi region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023. Vadyn was killed during an assault mission on Sept. 7 near Bakhmut, serving as an infantry serviceman of the 3rd Assault Brigade. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko)

However, the paper notes that this stalemate appears to be by design — at least to some extent. Western governments, for example, are struggling to provide simple military tech, such as artillery shells, in the promised number. These governments are still leery about providing more advanced military weapons, such as the Taurus guided missiles, which in theory could destroy the Kerch Bridge, a vital supply route for Russia. However, Western governments are still extremely wary of providing such weapons to Ukraine out of fear that the war could escalate. In effect, they want to provide only enough weapons to make sure Ukraine cannot lose, but also cannot win:

This is symptomatic of the German attitude, but ultimately also of the U.S. government. The American foreign policy expert Walter Russell Mead recently complained in the Wall Street Journal that the stalemate was ultimately the goal of the Biden government: exhausted Ukrainians would have to offer peace to Russia at some point, “and the White House then sells this as a glorious victory for democracy and the rule of law.”

However, the Welt article ends on a controversial note.

Despite spending much of the piece outlining how the war has reached a stalemate, resulting in incredible losses for both Russia and Ukraine, the article implies that the only way forward is doubling down on military support for Ukraine instead of working towards a peaceful solution.

...

“The West will have to decide whether it still believes in itself. And soon,” Welt concludes.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/has-kyiv-already-lost-germanys-welt-newspaper-claims-ukraine-crumbling-orban-was-right