Grécia - Tópico principal

[Joao-D]

Parece sincero, embora também pareça agarrado ao poder.

Tsipras:

“Eu assumo a responsabilidade por todos os erros que possa ter cometido, eu assumo a responsabilidade por um texto em que não acredito, mas eu assinei-o para evitar o desastre para o país, o colapso dos bancos”, referiu.

“As políticas que nos foram impostas são irracionais”, considerou, acrescentando que, apesar disso, não irá fugir às suas responsabilidades e que não irá abandonar o cargo, pelo menos até que haja um acordo sólido com os credores.

"Não tenho razões para convocar eleições, dependerá do que se passar no meu partido, no nosso parceiro (de Governo)", sustentou, acrescentando que a sua prioridade é "conseguir um programa" e, a partir daí, terá "tempo para conflitos internos e com a oposição".

“A dura verdade é que a Grécia foi encurralada numa rua de sentido único”, disse ainda o primeiro-ministro grego, numa entrevista concedida na véspera das medidas de austeridade impostas pelos parceiros do eurogrupo e credores da Grécia irem a votação no parlamento grego.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/internacional/2015-07-14-Tsipras-Assinei-um-acordo-em-que-nao-acredito

[Zel]

No país que tanto se orgulha da democracia:
- Votaram no Syriza que prometeu acabar com a austeridade
- Votaram NÃO ao acordo

Resultado final: levaram com um acordo atolado de austeridade

Ao pé disto as mentiras do PPC e do Socas para chegarem a PM foram brincadeiras de putos.

foram chantageados. o tripras nao estava preparado para os panzer.

[Incognitus]

Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog

The Pause of 2014

Part of the background to the sack of Athens is the widespread belief among Europe’s austerians that, despite everything that has happened, they are in the process of being vindicated. After all, growth has resumed in the GIIPS countries – in fact, even Greece was growing until Syriza came to power and scared away the confidence fairy.

Now, many of us took on similar claims in the UK – and quickly noted that a large part of the story behind the resumption of British growth in 2013-2014 was actually a pause in fiscal consolidation. Confusion between levels and rates of change is endemic here — actually, it’s just amazing how much discussion of macroeconomics since the crisis is nonsense because people who imagine themselves sophisticated are muddled about the difference between levels and changes. But the models are completely clear: the rate of growth of GDP should depend on the change in the structural budget balance. So you would expect GDP growth to pick up, other things equal, if there is a slowdown in the pace of tightening even if austerity isn’t actually reversed.

So how does the story of the GIIPS fit into this analysis? Exhibit 1 shows the overall stance of fiscal policy in the GIIPS, using the IMF’s estimate of the structural budget balance as a share of potential GDP — an imperfect measure, but good enough, I think, to make the point. To get a single number I weight countries by their 2009 PPP GDP, also from the IMF. The story is clear: rapid, drastic tightening from 2009 to 2013, but a standstill in 2014. A revival of growth in 2014 is therefore no surprise — and it actually supports the Keynesian story, rather than refuting it.



Exhibit 2 shows things a bit differently, with more detail. Each point in the scatterplot represents an individual GIIPS country in a given year, with the horizontal axis showing the change in the structural balance — effectively, the additional austerity imposed in that year — and the vertical axis representing the rate of growth. As usual, we see a clear negative association, consistent with a Keynesian story.



In addition to the usual scatter, however, I have marked the observations for 2014 in red. As you can see, 2014 was a year of modest growth for all of the countries; it was also a year in which fiscal consolidation was effectively put on hold. And the outcomes were well within a range consistent with the previous austerity-growth relationship.

So is there anything at all here suggesting that it’s OK to impose further fiscal tightening on Greece, that this won’t deepen its depression? For that matter, does Greece even stand out as having done worse than you would expect given the incredibly harsh fiscal adjustment? No and no.

krugman

Esse artigo não faz muito sentido -- é claro que em algum ponto a consolidação orçamental para e deixa de ser um drag no crescimento. O objectivo é mesmo esse: levar a coisa até um nível sustentável e não mais que isso.

[5555]

Opinion: Forget Greece, Portugal is the eurozone’s next crisis

In the end, they kicked the can a little further down the road. After keeping the markets on a cliff-hanger for the last week, wondering whether the Greeks might end up getting kicked out of the eurozone, a deal of some sort looks likely.

It won’t fix Greece, and it won’t fix the euro EURUSD, -0.0091%  either. But it will patch the whole system up until Christmas — and that will buy everyone some time to concentrate on something else.

And yet, in reality, the real crisis may not be in the east of the eurozone, but right over in the west. Portugal is the ticking time-bomb waiting to explode.

Why? Because the country has run up unsustainable debts, most of the money is owed to foreigners, and with the economy still in deep trouble it may have to default as well. The elections later this year may well trigger the second Portuguese crisis — and that will reveal how the problems in Europe involve far more than just Greece, even if that attracts most of the world’s attention.

All the evidence suggests that, once the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs into the 130% bracket and above, it is basically unsustainable.

Back in 2011 and 2012, when the euro crisis first flared up, three countries went bust.

Of those, Greece is still in intensive care, and looks likely to remain so for the foreseeable future — the Greeks look willing to do just enough to stay in the eurozone, while the rest of Europe is willing to offer it just enough money to stay afloat while making it impossible to grow (it is a reverse Goldilocks — probably the worst of all possible solutions).

Hopes Rise for Greece Bailout Deal

Ireland, which was always the strongest of the three bankrupt nations, is now growing again at a reasonable rate, helped along by the robust recovery in the U.K., which is still its main export market.

And then there is Portugal — which is not in Greek-style permanent crisis, and yet does not seem capable of a sustainable recovery.

On the surface, Portugal looks in much better shape than it did three years ago. It has exited the bailout scheme, leaving the program in May last year, after hitting European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund targets. The economy is starting to expand again. Gross domestic product rose by 0.4% in the latest quarter, extending the run to a whole year of expansion, taking the annual growth rate up to 1.5%. It is forecast to expand by another 1.6% this year.

If Portugal can indeed recover, that would be a big win for the EU and IMF. Their catastrophic mix of internal devaluation and austerity looks to have been a complete failure in Greece, but if they can make it work in both Ireland and Portugal, the reputation of both institutions could be salvaged.

Lisbon’s debts are high, and foreigners own most of it

After all, two out of three is not too bad.

The trouble is, Portugal may not be ‘saved’ after all.

The recovery does not look very durable. It is mainly is driven by consumer spending and a cyclical uptick in investment. But exports continue to fall, and unemployment is still rising — the latest figures show it up to 13.7% of the workforce.

The real issue, however, is debt. According to the latest figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, Portugal’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to 130%. Rather more worryingly, 70% of that is owned by foreigners.

Some countries such as Finland or Latvia have most of their debt held by foreigners — but are in the fortunate position of not having very much of it. Other countries, such as Italy, have a lot of debt, but are in the fortunate position of having most of it owned domestically.

The Portuguese are close to unique, in both having very high debts, and most of it being owned abroad. Nor does it just end there. Once household and corporate debt is added into the equation, Portugal has more debt in total than any other eurozone country, Greece included (which mainly has government debt to deal with). There aren’t any reliable figures on who that debt belongs to, but it is fair bet that is mostly foreigners as well.

So long as the economy is stable and the government is secure, that might not be a problem. Portugal doesn’t appear to have that luxury. The government of the center-right leader Pedro Coelho has to call an election before the end of October. Antonio Costa’s Socialist Party is likely to make sweeping gains on an anti-austerity platform. If it wins the election — and the polls put it ahead — then it is likely to slow the pace of austerity, provoking the wrath of the ECB and the IMF.

If Podemos, the Spanish protest party, does well across the border in that country’s elections, it will embolden a left-of-center Portuguese government to reject the cuts in spending demanded of it.

So far, there is little evidence of investors getting nervous about that. Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds have spiked back up to 2.7%, from the 1.6% they reached earlier this year, but are nowhere close to the 14% they reached at the height of the crisis. Portuguese stocks have recovered most of their losses suffered as the country went bust, even if they are not quite back to 2011 levels.

But they should be. All the evidence suggests that, once the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs into the 130% bracket and above, it is basically unsustainable. A country has to grow at 3%-plus simply to keep its debts at the same level — and there is absolutely nothing to suggest Portugal can achieve that or anything like it.

At some point, all those foreign holders of Portuguese debt are going to realize it will have to be written off, at least in part. Once that happens, there will be a stampede to sell — and the elections later this year could well be the trigger for that.

Right now, the markets believe Greece can be contained. Perhaps it can. But Portugal as well? That seems unlikely. Most people think the center of the eurozone crisis is in Athens — but it might well be in Lisbon instead.

Marketwatch.com

[vbm]

Se reentrarmos em crise,
derrubaremos a Alemanha!

Com o apoio de Espanha, Inglaterra,
Estados Unidos, Itália e Grécia.

[Storgoff]

Afinal o Tsipras estava desejoso que no referendo tivesse ganho o Sim !
O Não pelos vistos foi um verdadeiro murro no estomago!

Era aqui que residia a grande divergência entre o Tsipras e o Varoufakis.
Apesar do que se disse , não era o Varoufakis que andava a jogar.
O Varoufakis estava disposto a ir até as ultimas consequencias

[Zel]

sim, o tsipras chamou o referendo na esperanca de perder
muito honesto

[Lark]

Se reentrarmos em crise,
derrubaremos a Alemanha!

Com o apoio de Espanha, Inglaterra,
Estados Unidos, Itália e Grécia.

estás à espera que o António Costa se encoste à esquerda e se rebele contra os euro overlords? Podes esperar sentado.
nenhum partido do 'arco governativo' o fará.
se nem o tsipras o conseguiu fazer....?

agora se houver um volte-face na Grécia e sairem do euro e se o Podemos chegar ao poder, talvez...talvez... haja uma esperançazita de endireitarmos a espinha e fazermos frente à alemanha.
mas não será o Costa a fazê-lo.
o Costa fá-lo-á tanto quanto o Renzi e o Hollande estão a fazer. népia. Ou o bom do Sigmar Gabriel, que ainda é mais papista que o papa merkeliano que a merkel.

a social-democracia está a passar à história.
desde a terceira via - clinton/blair/guterres/schröder/miterrand - que a social-democracia deixou de ser contra-poder.
algo novo terá que aparecer. na grécia apareceu o syriza, na espanha o podemos, aqui não sei, em itália não é o beppe grillo de certeza...
portugal e itália com primeiros ministros socialistas tenderão a encostar-se, a ver como a  coisa se desenrola e se houver oportunidade abichar qualquer coisinha.
pôr em causa o status quo? não estou a ver!

L

[Lark]

Afinal o Tsipras estava desejoso que no referendo tivesse ganho o Sim !
O Não pelos vistos foi um verdadeiro murro no estomago!

Era aqui que residia a grande divergência entre o Tsipras e o Varoufakis.
Apesar do que se disse , não era o Varoufakis que andava a jogar.
O Varoufakis estava disposto a ir até as ultimas consequencias

yep....

L

[Zel]

Afinal o Tsipras estava desejoso que no referendo tivesse ganho o Sim !
O Não pelos vistos foi um verdadeiro murro no estomago!

Era aqui que residia a grande divergência entre o Tsipras e o Varoufakis.
Apesar do que se disse , não era o Varoufakis que andava a jogar.
O Varoufakis estava disposto a ir até as ultimas consequencias

yep....

L

sao um partido verdadeiramente democratico 

[Lark]

Afinal o Tsipras estava desejoso que no referendo tivesse ganho o Sim !
O Não pelos vistos foi um verdadeiro murro no estomago!

Era aqui que residia a grande divergência entre o Tsipras e o Varoufakis.
Apesar do que se disse , não era o Varoufakis que andava a jogar.
O Varoufakis estava disposto a ir até as ultimas consequencias

yep....

L

sao um partido verdadeiramente democratico 

tu agora é só one liners e carinhas sorridentes?

L

[vbm]

estás à espera que o António Costa se encoste à esquerda e se rebele contra os euro overlords? Podes esperar sentado.
nenhum partido do 'arco governativo' o fará.
se nem o tsipras o conseguiu fazer....?
[ ]
algo novo terá que aparecer. na grécia apareceu o syriza, na espanha o podemos, aqui não sei, em itália não é o beppe grillo de certeza...
portugal e itália com primeiros ministros socialistas tenderão a encostar-se, a ver como a  coisa se desenrola e se houver oportunidade abichar qualquer coisinha.
pôr em causa o status quo? não estou a ver!

E a Inglaterra? E a América?

Se a Europa ibérica e mediterrânica
não se opuser à Alemanha,
a Europa atlântica fá-lo-á.

A Europa central germânica e de Leste
é menos poderosa do que se julga.

[Visitante]

Opinion: Forget Greece, Portugal is the eurozone’s next crisis

In the end, they kicked the can a little further down the road. After keeping the markets on a cliff-hanger for the last week, wondering whether the Greeks might end up getting kicked out of the eurozone, a deal of some sort looks likely.

It won’t fix Greece, and it won’t fix the euro EURUSD, -0.0091%  either. But it will patch the whole system up until Christmas — and that will buy everyone some time to concentrate on something else.

And yet, in reality, the real crisis may not be in the east of the eurozone, but right over in the west. Portugal is the ticking time-bomb waiting to explode.

Why? Because the country has run up unsustainable debts, most of the money is owed to foreigners, and with the economy still in deep trouble it may have to default as well. The elections later this year may well trigger the second Portuguese crisis — and that will reveal how the problems in Europe involve far more than just Greece, even if that attracts most of the world’s attention.

All the evidence suggests that, once the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs into the 130% bracket and above, it is basically unsustainable.

Back in 2011 and 2012, when the euro crisis first flared up, three countries went bust.

Of those, Greece is still in intensive care, and looks likely to remain so for the foreseeable future — the Greeks look willing to do just enough to stay in the eurozone, while the rest of Europe is willing to offer it just enough money to stay afloat while making it impossible to grow (it is a reverse Goldilocks — probably the worst of all possible solutions).

Hopes Rise for Greece Bailout Deal

Ireland, which was always the strongest of the three bankrupt nations, is now growing again at a reasonable rate, helped along by the robust recovery in the U.K., which is still its main export market.

And then there is Portugal — which is not in Greek-style permanent crisis, and yet does not seem capable of a sustainable recovery.

On the surface, Portugal looks in much better shape than it did three years ago. It has exited the bailout scheme, leaving the program in May last year, after hitting European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund targets. The economy is starting to expand again. Gross domestic product rose by 0.4% in the latest quarter, extending the run to a whole year of expansion, taking the annual growth rate up to 1.5%. It is forecast to expand by another 1.6% this year.

If Portugal can indeed recover, that would be a big win for the EU and IMF. Their catastrophic mix of internal devaluation and austerity looks to have been a complete failure in Greece, but if they can make it work in both Ireland and Portugal, the reputation of both institutions could be salvaged.

Lisbon’s debts are high, and foreigners own most of it

After all, two out of three is not too bad.

The trouble is, Portugal may not be ‘saved’ after all.

The recovery does not look very durable. It is mainly is driven by consumer spending and a cyclical uptick in investment. But exports continue to fall, and unemployment is still rising — the latest figures show it up to 13.7% of the workforce.

The real issue, however, is debt. According to the latest figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, Portugal’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed to 130%. Rather more worryingly, 70% of that is owned by foreigners.

Some countries such as Finland or Latvia have most of their debt held by foreigners — but are in the fortunate position of not having very much of it. Other countries, such as Italy, have a lot of debt, but are in the fortunate position of having most of it owned domestically.

The Portuguese are close to unique, in both having very high debts, and most of it being owned abroad. Nor does it just end there. Once household and corporate debt is added into the equation, Portugal has more debt in total than any other eurozone country, Greece included (which mainly has government debt to deal with). There aren’t any reliable figures on who that debt belongs to, but it is fair bet that is mostly foreigners as well.

So long as the economy is stable and the government is secure, that might not be a problem. Portugal doesn’t appear to have that luxury. The government of the center-right leader Pedro Coelho has to call an election before the end of October. Antonio Costa’s Socialist Party is likely to make sweeping gains on an anti-austerity platform. If it wins the election — and the polls put it ahead — then it is likely to slow the pace of austerity, provoking the wrath of the ECB and the IMF.

If Podemos, the Spanish protest party, does well across the border in that country’s elections, it will embolden a left-of-center Portuguese government to reject the cuts in spending demanded of it.

So far, there is little evidence of investors getting nervous about that. Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds have spiked back up to 2.7%, from the 1.6% they reached earlier this year, but are nowhere close to the 14% they reached at the height of the crisis. Portuguese stocks have recovered most of their losses suffered as the country went bust, even if they are not quite back to 2011 levels.

But they should be. All the evidence suggests that, once the debt-to-GDP ratio climbs into the 130% bracket and above, it is basically unsustainable. A country has to grow at 3%-plus simply to keep its debts at the same level — and there is absolutely nothing to suggest Portugal can achieve that or anything like it.

At some point, all those foreign holders of Portuguese debt are going to realize it will have to be written off, at least in part. Once that happens, there will be a stampede to sell — and the elections later this year could well be the trigger for that.

Right now, the markets believe Greece can be contained. Perhaps it can. But Portugal as well? That seems unlikely. Most people think the center of the eurozone crisis is in Athens — but it might well be in Lisbon instead.

Marketwatch.com

Os analistas financeiros por regra falam sobre o que não conhecem na totalidade, especulam, embrulhando bem a tese numa história verosímil, mas que pode ser facilmente desmontada por quem conhece a verdade. A Grécia não tem apoio do BCE e nós estamos abrangidos pelo programa de QE, o que faz toda a diferença. Para quem conhece a realidade portuguesa a tese do artigo soa muito mal.

[Storgoff]

Para suportar o que disse, oiçam a entrevista que o Varoufakis deu à ABC Radio National.

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/

[Automek]

Já temos aqui uma saída para permitir ao BCE não declarar o default na 2ª feira e deixar a coisa rolar mais 7 dias
Grécia tem 7 dias de carência se não pagar ao BCE

[Automek]

Estes viram as chibatadas que a Grécia levou e já fizeram marcha atrás.
Partido Podemos já não quer reestruturar a dívida pública espanhola

[Incognitus]

Se reentrarmos em crise,
derrubaremos a Alemanha!

Com o apoio de Espanha, Inglaterra,
Estados Unidos, Itália e Grécia.

estás à espera que o António Costa se encoste à esquerda e se rebele contra os euro overlords? Podes esperar sentado.
nenhum partido do 'arco governativo' o fará.
se nem o tsipras o conseguiu fazer....?

agora se houver um volte-face na Grécia e sairem do euro e se o Podemos chegar ao poder, talvez...talvez... haja uma esperançazita de endireitarmos a espinha e fazermos frente à alemanha.
mas não será o Costa a fazê-lo.
o Costa fá-lo-á tanto quanto o Renzi e o Hollande estão a fazer. népia. Ou o bom do Sigmar Gabriel, que ainda é mais papista que o papa merkeliano que a merkel.

a social-democracia está a passar à história.
desde a terceira via - clinton/blair/guterres/schröder/miterrand - que a social-democracia deixou de ser contra-poder.
algo novo terá que aparecer. na grécia apareceu o syriza, na espanha o podemos, aqui não sei, em itália não é o beppe grillo de certeza...
portugal e itália com primeiros ministros socialistas tenderão a encostar-se, a ver como a  coisa se desenrola e se houver oportunidade abichar qualquer coisinha.
pôr em causa o status quo? não estou a ver!

L

"Rebelar contra a Aleamanha" = produzir coisas para os outros, como os Alemães, em vez de se ficar à espera que eles depois de produzirem, entreguem o produto das vendas.

Parecem um monte de Católicos à espera de um qualquer milagre. QUALQUER coisa que NÃO passe por produzir para os outros. Nisto não há milagres, nem há sistema alternativo.

--------

E não te parece que a Alemanha tenha suficiente social-democracia? Isso não faz sentido nenhum. É uma espera por uma cura milagreira.

[Incognitus]

sim, o tsipras chamou o referendo na esperanca de perder
muito honesto

Qualquer coisa parece ser suficiente para o pessoal se agarrar. É como se um navio tivesse afundado e procurassem bocados de madeira, por pouco que flutuem. Então dá nessas teses surreais.

[Incognitus]

estás à espera que o António Costa se encoste à esquerda e se rebele contra os euro overlords? Podes esperar sentado.
nenhum partido do 'arco governativo' o fará.
se nem o tsipras o conseguiu fazer....?
[ ]
algo novo terá que aparecer. na grécia apareceu o syriza, na espanha o podemos, aqui não sei, em itália não é o beppe grillo de certeza...
portugal e itália com primeiros ministros socialistas tenderão a encostar-se, a ver como a  coisa se desenrola e se houver oportunidade abichar qualquer coisinha.
pôr em causa o status quo? não estou a ver!

E a Inglaterra? E a América?

Se a Europa ibérica e mediterrânica
não se opuser à Alemanha,
a Europa atlântica fá-lo-á.

A Europa central germânica e de Leste
é menos poderosa do que se julga.

vbm, acredita lá em alguma coisa que faça sentido. Aqui ninguém tem que se opor a ninguém. A realidade é que é preciso fazer mais para os outros como os Alemães fazem, o resto são cantigas sem sentido.

[Lark]

Se reentrarmos em crise,
derrubaremos a Alemanha!

Com o apoio de Espanha, Inglaterra,
Estados Unidos, Itália e Grécia.

estás à espera que o António Costa se encoste à esquerda e se rebele contra os euro overlords? Podes esperar sentado.
nenhum partido do 'arco governativo' o fará.
se nem o tsipras o conseguiu fazer....?

agora se houver um volte-face na Grécia e sairem do euro e se o Podemos chegar ao poder, talvez...talvez... haja uma esperançazita de endireitarmos a espinha e fazermos frente à alemanha.
mas não será o Costa a fazê-lo.
o Costa fá-lo-á tanto quanto o Renzi e o Hollande estão a fazer. népia. Ou o bom do Sigmar Gabriel, que ainda é mais papista que o papa merkeliano que a merkel.

a social-democracia está a passar à história.
desde a terceira via - clinton/blair/guterres/schröder/miterrand - que a social-democracia deixou de ser contra-poder.
algo novo terá que aparecer. na grécia apareceu o syriza, na espanha o podemos, aqui não sei, em itália não é o beppe grillo de certeza...
portugal e itália com primeiros ministros socialistas tenderão a encostar-se, a ver como a  coisa se desenrola e se houver oportunidade abichar qualquer coisinha.
pôr em causa o status quo? não estou a ver!

L

"Rebelar contra a Aleamanha" = produzir coisas para os outros, como os Alemães, em vez de se ficar à espera que eles depois de produzirem, entreguem o produto das vendas.

Parecem um monte de Católicos à espera de um qualquer milagre. QUALQUER coisa que NÃO passe por produzir para os outros. Nisto não há milagres, nem há sistema alternativo.

--------

E não te parece que a Alemanha tenha suficiente social-democracia? Isso não faz sentido nenhum. É uma espera por uma cura milagreira.

o FMI afirma que a dívida é insustentável
o euro não funciona, como está mais que demonstrado

logo temos que sair do euro e reestruturar a dívida.
mais simples que isto não há.

contra toda a evidência insistires na permanência no euro e no pagamento de uma dívida que não é sustentável, para mim é que é um anseio por um milagre.

esperar que o euro passe a funcionar e que a dívida se torne sustentável, só mesmo por uma questão de fé.

é até o schauble que o diz. que a grécia estaria melhor fora do euro e reestruturando a sua dívida.
leste essas declarações não leste?


L