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Zel

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2220 em: 2015-03-23 16:06:45 »
outro pormenor, como nao somos um paraiso fiscal para holdings isso quer dizer que a divida das nossa empresas ate deve estar subavaliada

Local

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“Our values are human rights, democracy and the rule of law, to which I see no alternative. This is why I am opposed to any ideology or any political movement that negates these values or which treads upon them once it has assumed power. In this regard there is no difference between Nazism, Fascism or Communism..”
Urmas Reinsalu

Zel

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2222 em: 2015-03-23 16:13:30 »
Endividamento do sector não financeiro
https://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/Estatisticas/PublicacoesEstatisticas/BolEstatistico/Publicacoes/20-Endividamento%20setor%20nao%20financeiro.pdf

obrigado pelos dados
diminuiu 28% do pib em dois anos, isso deve ser das falencias... ainda bem, toca a falir mais. esta a correr melhor do que eu pensava.
por outro lado o que diz isto da situacao da banca
« Última modificação: 2015-03-23 16:19:00 por Neo-Liberal »

Visitante

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2223 em: 2015-03-24 12:29:31 »
The forced loan by Greece to Germany in 1942 [...] amounted to 476m Reichsmarks or, according to Greek estimates, €11 billion today. (That is about 17% of the €65 billion that Greece today owes Germany as part of its bail-out.) In the 1960s Ludwig Erhard, the then chancellor, said that Germany would repay the loan once it reunified. He may have assumed this would never happen.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21646760-euro-zone-brink-again-neither-childish-squabbles-nor-historical-arguments-are?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/pointingfingers
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 12:30:27 por Visitante »

Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2224 em: 2015-03-24 17:56:08 »
The forced loan by Greece to Germany in 1942 [...] amounted to 476m Reichsmarks or, according to Greek estimates, €11 billion today. (That is about 17% of the €65 billion that Greece today owes Germany as part of its bail-out.) In the 1960s Ludwig Erhard, the then chancellor, said that Germany would repay the loan once it reunified. He may have assumed this would never happen.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21646760-euro-zone-brink-again-neither-childish-squabbles-nor-historical-arguments-are?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/pointingfingers


parece-me que esse valor é ainda sem juros calculados. o curioso aqui é que existe mesmo um contrato entre os nazis e o banco central grego, assinado com uma Luger apontada à cabeça do governador do banco grego (imagino eu...) em que os nazis reconhecem o empréstimo e se comprometem a pagá-lo com 0% de juros.

são 11 bis hoje, mas se os gregos reclamarem que a cláusula dos 0% de juros foi imposta sob coacção, a quantia pode ser muito, mas muito maior. depende dos juros que forem considerados adequados, provavelmente por algum tribunal arbitral ou por entendimento entre as duas partes.

a dívida grega pode até desaparecer por causa disto.
isso é que era um fartote de rir...

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Incognitus

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2225 em: 2015-03-24 18:04:00 »
The forced loan by Greece to Germany in 1942 [...] amounted to 476m Reichsmarks or, according to Greek estimates, €11 billion today. (That is about 17% of the €65 billion that Greece today owes Germany as part of its bail-out.) In the 1960s Ludwig Erhard, the then chancellor, said that Germany would repay the loan once it reunified. He may have assumed this would never happen.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21646760-euro-zone-brink-again-neither-childish-squabbles-nor-historical-arguments-are?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/pointingfingers


parece-me que esse valor é ainda sem juros calculados. o curioso aqui é que existe mesmo um contrato entre os nazis e o banco central grego, assinado com uma Luger apontada à cabeça do governador do banco grego (imagino eu...) em que os nazis reconhecem o empréstimo e se comprometem a pagá-lo com 0% de juros.

são 11 bis hoje, mas se os gregos reclamarem que a cláusula dos 0% de juros foi imposta sob coacção, a quantia pode ser muito, mas muito maior. depende dos juros que forem considerados adequados, provavelmente por algum tribunal arbitral ou por entendimento entre as duas partes.

a dívida grega pode até desaparecer por causa disto.
isso é que era um fartote de rir...

D/L


Para serem 11bis hoje já foram considerados juros, a cerca de 4.5% ao ano, compostos (reinvestidos).
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 18:04:26 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2226 em: 2015-03-24 18:10:33 »
The forced loan by Greece to Germany in 1942 [...] amounted to 476m Reichsmarks or, according to Greek estimates, €11 billion today. (That is about 17% of the €65 billion that Greece today owes Germany as part of its bail-out.) In the 1960s Ludwig Erhard, the then chancellor, said that Germany would repay the loan once it reunified. He may have assumed this would never happen.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21646760-euro-zone-brink-again-neither-childish-squabbles-nor-historical-arguments-are?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/pointingfingers


parece-me que esse valor é ainda sem juros calculados. o curioso aqui é que existe mesmo um contrato entre os nazis e o banco central grego, assinado com uma Luger apontada à cabeça do governador do banco grego (imagino eu...) em que os nazis reconhecem o empréstimo e se comprometem a pagá-lo com 0% de juros.

são 11 bis hoje, mas se os gregos reclamarem que a cláusula dos 0% de juros foi imposta sob coacção, a quantia pode ser muito, mas muito maior. depende dos juros que forem considerados adequados, provavelmente por algum tribunal arbitral ou por entendimento entre as duas partes.

a dívida grega pode até desaparecer por causa disto.
isso é que era um fartote de rir...

D/L


Para serem 11bis hoje já foram considerados juros, a cerca de 4.5% ao ano, compostos (reinvestidos).


não. foi considerada inflação. não foram considerados juros.
quando se diz 'a valores de hoje', quer-se dizer que se levou em conta a inflação. não o interest.

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Incognitus

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2227 em: 2015-03-24 18:14:21 »
Se fosse considerada inflação e NÂO juros, o valor seria hoje INFERIOR ao que era na altura.

Quanto muito foram considerados juros iguais á inflação. Mas mesmo aí seria necessário verificar se a inflação média foi de 4.5% desde então. É duvidoso que tenha sido. E que inflação terão usado? A Alemã ou a Grega? A Grega deve ter sido superior.

----------

"A valores de hoje" somente considerando a inflação daria um valor menor do que o original. A valores de hoje apresentando um aumento composto pela inflação é o mesmo que considerar juros = inflação.
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 18:16:19 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Incognitus

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2228 em: 2015-03-24 18:16:58 »
Em todo o caso não discordo dos 11 biliões. Mas também duvido que a Grécia não tenha já entalado os Alemães em pelo menos 11 biliões de incumprimentos...
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Zel

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2229 em: 2015-03-24 18:21:45 »
e os fundos estruturais da grecia, nao da descontar?  :D

Deus Menor

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2230 em: 2015-03-24 18:26:28 »
O título e o abstract dizem tudo :)

"Pointing fingers

With the euro zone on the brink again, neither childish squabbles nor historical arguments are helpful to Germany or Greece"

Adoro a bienal de Cerveira, e este ano vou tentar ir lá na altura da Sra. Varoufakis, será
delicioso ouvir o argumentário "rive gauche" para justificar o injustificável.

De facto o único contra naquele lugar maravilhoso é mesmo a alta afluência de
figuras Públicas Socialistas, dado que os Bloquistas e Comunistas até têm a sua piada
pela forma genuína como se manifestam e têm sempre umas ativistas femininas bem giras...

Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2231 em: 2015-03-24 18:57:50 »
Se fosse considerada inflação e NÂO juros, o valor seria hoje INFERIOR ao que era na altura.

Quanto muito foram considerados juros iguais á inflação. Mas mesmo aí seria necessário verificar se a inflação média foi de 4.5% desde então. É duvidoso que tenha sido. E que inflação terão usado? A Alemã ou a Grega? A Grega deve ter sido superior.

----------

"A valores de hoje" somente considerando a inflação daria um valor menor do que o original. A valores de hoje apresentando um aumento composto pela inflação é o mesmo que considerar juros = inflação.


é evidente que se tem que considerar o valor como corrigido pela inflação. são 476 milhões de marcos de 1942.
pressupõe-se que se os gregos podessem ter negociado livremente (bom se pudessem os alemães não tinha visto um chavo) teriam negociado a soma de duas rates: a que cobrisse a inflação esperada + a real interest rate.

dos 476m para os 11 b já calculaste a taxa de juro que cobre a inflação real.
falta a real interest rate.

às vezes parece-me que tu pensas que estás a falar com tontinhos.

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Incognitus

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2232 em: 2015-03-24 19:08:26 »
Se fosse considerada inflação e NÂO juros, o valor seria hoje INFERIOR ao que era na altura.

Quanto muito foram considerados juros iguais á inflação. Mas mesmo aí seria necessário verificar se a inflação média foi de 4.5% desde então. É duvidoso que tenha sido. E que inflação terão usado? A Alemã ou a Grega? A Grega deve ter sido superior.

----------

"A valores de hoje" somente considerando a inflação daria um valor menor do que o original. A valores de hoje apresentando um aumento composto pela inflação é o mesmo que considerar juros = inflação.


é evidente que se tem que considerar o valor como corrigido pela inflação. são 476 milhões de marcos de 1942.
pressupõe-se que se os gregos podessem ter negociado livremente (bom se pudessem os alemães não tinha visto um chavo) teriam negociado a soma de duas rates: a que cobrisse a inflação esperada + a real interest rate.

dos 476m para os 11 b já calculaste a taxa de juro que cobre a inflação real.
falta a real interest rate.

às vezes parece-me que tu pensas que estás a falar com tontinhos.

D/L

O ponto é que sabemos que a taxa composta foi cerca de 4.5%, agora resta saber se:
* Isso correspondeu a uma taxa de inflação, a mais ou a menos;
* E se foi uma taxa de inflação, terá sido a Alemã ou a Grega?

Em todo o caso parece pouco importar. A Grécia não terá já incumprido para com investidores Alemães num montante superior a isso? Ou não terão tais montantes entretanto não ter sido sujeitos a um acordo qualquer dos que envolveu dívida Alemã no pós-Guerra?
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 19:10:13 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Pecunia...Olet!

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2233 em: 2015-03-24 19:16:54 »
Hoje, O Yanis está irreconhecível. Quer que todos parem com "finger-pointing...", acredita que "...the greek state can best repay debts..." e quer "...shared prosperity..." com os Alemães.

Ele sabe - e acredita - que a Grécia não terá como pagar a dívida pública. Escrever o contrário para agradar aos Alemães deve ser penoso. Mas é a política! "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." (Juncker).


http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/03/20/of-greeks-and-germans-re-imagining-our-shared-future/#more-7569


Onde está o Varoufakis?
Apagou o post de sexta-feira no blog dele? Arrependeu-se do tom conciliador? Ou estava a brincar quando dizia que a Grécia ia pagar todas as suas dívidas?

Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2234 em: 2015-03-24 19:21:17 »
Se fosse considerada inflação e NÂO juros, o valor seria hoje INFERIOR ao que era na altura.

Quanto muito foram considerados juros iguais á inflação. Mas mesmo aí seria necessário verificar se a inflação média foi de 4.5% desde então. É duvidoso que tenha sido. E que inflação terão usado? A Alemã ou a Grega? A Grega deve ter sido superior.

----------

"A valores de hoje" somente considerando a inflação daria um valor menor do que o original. A valores de hoje apresentando um aumento composto pela inflação é o mesmo que considerar juros = inflação.


é evidente que se tem que considerar o valor como corrigido pela inflação. são 476 milhões de marcos de 1942.
pressupõe-se que se os gregos podessem ter negociado livremente (bom se pudessem os alemães não tinha visto um chavo) teriam negociado a soma de duas rates: a que cobrisse a inflação esperada + a real interest rate.

dos 476m para os 11 b já calculaste a taxa de juro que cobre a inflação real.
falta a real interest rate.

às vezes parece-me que tu pensas que estás a falar com tontinhos.

D/L

O ponto é que sabemos que a taxa composta foi cerca de 4.5%, agora resta saber se:
* Isso correspondeu a uma taxa de inflação, a mais ou a menos;
* E se foi uma taxa de inflação, terá sido a Alemã ou a Grega?

Em todo o caso parece pouco importar. A Grécia não terá já incumprido para com investidores Alemães num montante superior a isso? Ou não terão tais montantes entretanto não ter sido sujeitos a um acordo qualquer dos que envolveu dívida Alemã no pós-Guerra?

suponho que terá que ser a inflação Alemã. O empréstimo foi em marcos, parece. se tivesse sido em dracmas seria inflação grega a ser tida em conta

quanto ao encontro de contas de que falas, são coisas diferentes:
o incumprimento do empréstimo dos alemães data desde 1942. e não foi negociado e acordado livremente entre as partes.
o haircut da dívida grega data de há um par de anos e foi negociado e acordado livremente entre as partes.

acho que misturar as questões não faz sentido.
mas se os alemães acharem que deve ser feito encontro de contas então deverão propôr isso aos gregos e negociar.

D/L
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Incognitus

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2235 em: 2015-03-24 19:27:19 »
Eu acho que os Alemães acham a coisa demagogia ... enfim, teriam que se saber muito bem os detalhes da situação.

Sobre a inflação, isto não tem os anos todos mas pareceria que a média sairia abaixo de 4.5%.

Por outro lado se o empréstimo fosse em marcos teria que se ver o que aconteceu ao marco desde então, até se tornar euro. Eventualmente teria existido uma desvalorização catastrófica no final da 2GG, não?

Citar
  • In 1948, the Deutsche Mark replaced the almost worthless Reichsmark in the Allied western occupation zones initiating the start of economic recovery in western Germany
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 19:29:41 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

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Pecunia...Olet!

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2236 em: 2015-03-24 19:32:53 »
Isto faz lembrar o ring-fencing que o Banco de Portugal pediu ao BES... Deu no que deu.

FT:

Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2237 em: 2015-03-24 20:05:55 »
Festering anger, Nazi war crimes and the £60bn the Greeks believe the Germans owe them
 

The SS indulged their bloodlust on men, women and children alike. While homes and shops blazed around them like some hellish inferno, women were violated and those who were pregnant were stabbed in the guts. Small babies were bayoneted in their cribs. The village priest was beheaded.

By the time Hitler’s men had left the Greek village of Distomo near the ancient town of Delphi on that bloody day in June 1944, 218 people were dead.

The Waffen-SS was pleased with its work: the local partisans who had dared to attack a German unit had been taught a bitter lesson in revenge.
The slaughter at Distomo was such an outrage that, in 2003, even a German Federal Court judge described it as ‘one of the most despicable crimes of World War II’.

But he refused to grant the families of the victims any compensation for their suffering, and not a single German soldier was ever punished for what he and his comrades had done.

The Distomo massacre is just one example of the terrible suffering endured by the people of Greece during World War II and, some would say, of the German government’s reluctance to pay for the crimes committed against the Greeks in their nation’s name.

Countless other villages could tell of similar atrocities. Some 60,000 Greek Jews — more than three-quarters of the nation’s Jewish population — were rounded up and sent to their deaths in the gas chambers of Auschwitz and Treblinka.

Yet, neither the massacres of villagers nor the ethnic cleansing of the Jews was the deadliest of torments inflicted on Greece. For the worst Nazi war crimes of all were essentially economic.

Hitler’s troops helped themselves to everything, stealing goods and food to such a degree that hundreds of thousands of Greeks were left destitute and starving. At least 300,000 Greeks died as a result.

After Germany defeated the Greek army, the Nazis set about treating the country the same way they did their other conquests: as a fiefdom to be abused and exploited.
Some 60,000 Greek Jews  more than three-quarters of the nation's Jewish population were rounded up and sent to their deaths in the gas chambers of Auschwitz and Treblinka

Hitler’s men even raided the Greeks’ central bank, forcing them to give Germany a massive ‘war loan’ — one that has never been paid back, more of which later. Economists estimate that if it were repaid today, it could cost the German government £60billion. The memory of that travesty has been reignited this week by Greeks angry at the austerity measures being imposed on them — primarily by Germany as it seeks to stop the euro crisis spinning out of control.

‘There have been reparations to individuals, but not to Greece itself. Every other country in Europe had reparations apart from Greece. It’s not fair to say Greeks should die for free’.

A year into World War II, the Greeks had managed to stay clear of the conflict that had engulfed the rest of Europe. Hitler was not interested in Greece: he had bigger fish to fry.

But one man was spoiling for a fight. Benito Mussolini, the fascist dictator of Italy, was desperate to show Hitler that he, too, could launch a blitzkrieg.
And so, in October 1940 the Italians attacked Greece. They made some gains at first, but were soon driven back to where they had started. In March 1941, the Italians mounted another attack, but this was a total failure.

It was at this point that Hitler lost patience with his incompetent ally and intervened. He ordered the all-conquering German forces to sweep down through Yugoslavia and then overrun Greece. By early May 1941, Greece was under German control.

As historian Roger Moorhouse, author of Berlin At War and an expert on wartime Germany, explains: ‘The Nazis systematically stripped Occupied Europe of everything it had.
‘They were desperate to keep the Home Front onside. The spectre of starvation in Germany, and the loss of support for the war that had caused it, loomed large in their minds and it was something they wanted to avoid.

‘So they took honey from Greece, wheat from the Ukraine, wine and Cognac from France, bacon from Denmark and so forth. Whether you got compensated depended on your race.

‘In France, whose people were considered civilised, the chances were you might get paid for your produce, albeit at a very disadvantageous rate. If you were a Ukrainian, and thus a subhuman Slav, it would simply be confiscated. The Greeks were southern nobodies in Nazi eyes.’

As a result, Greek businesses, property and goods, including olive oil, leather, tobacco and cotton, were either seized outright or bought with a new, near-worthless currency called ‘Occupation Marks’.

To make matters worse, the Royal Navy mounted a blockade of Greece, resulting in a terrible shortage of food, especially in the big cities. By the end of 1941, the Red Cross estimated that 400 people a day were dying from starvation in Athens alone.

The Germans responded to this gathering humanitarian disaster with indifference. Hitler’s henchman Hermann Goering, whose love of fine food had left him morbidly obese, told the leaders of Germany’s occupied territories: ‘I could not care less when you say that people under your administration are dying of hunger. Let them perish, so long as no German starves.’

The Greeks have not forgotten what they call The Great Famine. Nor has what one might call The Great Theft slipped their minds either. Because the Germans didn’t just wreck the Greek economy, seize its products and starve its people. They took its money, too.

In February last year, the Greek Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos fumed: ‘The Germans took away Greek money and never gave it back.’

It was Nazi policy to make the people they conquered pay for their own oppression. At its most obscene, the Jews had to pay for their tickets on the cattle trucks that took them to the gas chambers. In Greece, the procedure was marginally more civilised.

On March 14, 1942, a team of German and Italian lawyers, in the absence of any Greeks, signed an agreement obliging the Bank of Greece to provide Germany with a ‘war loan’ of 476 million Reichsmarks (a currency which preceded the Deutschmark). And 70 years later not one penny of it, let alone any interest, has been repaid.

Economists (German ones, as it happens) have calculated that, allowing purely for inflation, Greece’s 1942 loan to Germany would today be worth £9bn. But if one adds even a modest rate of interest of 3 per cent, then that debt increases to a staggering £60bn.

That would be enough to cover Greece’s fiscal deficit for the next five years, giving the country time to restructure its economy and put government finances on a more sustainable footing.

And it’s not as if Germany couldn’t afford to pay up. The Bundesbank has more than 3,500 tons of gold in its vaults, worth over £200bn. But does it owe any of that to Greece?
Neither the German Embassy nor the German government are willing to comment on the issue. But the Greeks have no doubt where the truth lies.

In the words of a spokesman at the Greek Embassy in London: ‘There was a loan, and we have still not got anything back from Germany. The Germans deny it. They say: “We have helped you with reparations.”

‘But those were nothing compared with this sum. There have been reparations to individuals, but not to Greece itself. Every other country in Europe had reparations apart from Greece. It’s not fair to say Greeks should die for free.’

In Greek eyes, the Germans are lucky that the sum at issue is only £60bn. They point to a finding made at the 1945 Paris Conference on Reparations that Greece should receive compensation from Germany equivalent to more than £90bn today.

The Greek government, however, has never raised this issue when negotiating with the EU over the Greek debt crisis.
Prime Minister George Papandreou says: ‘It would be easy for people with bad faith to interpret this as a sign of weakness, that we are looking for an alibi to shirk our responsibilities.’

So could the Greeks take the German government to court to get their money back?
According to City lawyer Graham Defries: ‘In principle, there’s no reason why one can’t pursue an action of this kind. Debt doesn’t just get extinguished.

‘In international finance, the concept of an interest-free loan doesn’t exist, and it can’t legitimately be described as a loan if the money was obtained by coercion. So it’s a crime, and therefore not covered by previous reparations.’

In other words, the German government may have a moral duty to give the Greeks their money back. It might even have an economic interest in doing so — since a Greek default would cost the German economy far more than £60bn.

fonte
« Última modificação: 2015-03-24 20:07:41 por Dilath Larath »
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa

Pecunia...Olet!

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2238 em: 2015-03-24 20:26:36 »
o curioso aqui é que existe mesmo um contrato entre os nazis e o banco central grego, assinado com uma Luger apontada à cabeça do governador do banco grego (imagino eu...)
D/L


Com risco de tirar a frase do contexto, mas...
A questão tem duas componentes: (a)reparações de guerra e (b) pagamento do empréstimo.

a) Em relação às reparações de guerra, a questão foi arrumada em 46 e 90. Existe alguma razão para a Grécia querer tratamento diferente dos outros países que também foram invadidos? Não. Pediram muito e receberam pouco, mas não coube à Alemanha decidir isso. Foi negociado com Russos, Ingleses, Franceses, etc. A distribuição pode não ter agradado a todos, mas foi o que foi. Se acham que foram penalizados na distribuição, deveriam exigir dos Aliados, que acordaram e repartiram os montantes das reparações de guerra, e não da Alemanha.

b) Em relação ao pagamento do empréstimo: se existiu um empréstimo, então deve ser pago. Com negociação dos respectivas actualizações e juros. Ninguém discorda disto. Mas... e sempre o mas...  Mas a questão que poderá minar as negociações pode mesmo ser aquela colocaste com ironia: a "Luger apontada à cabeça do governador.".
 
Vejamos: Eu "obrigo" alguém a emprestar-me dinheiro sob ameaça (com uma "Luger apontada à cabeça", para manter o cenário). Nesta circunstância, eu estou a obter um empréstimo ou a roubar essa pessoa?
É que se for o segundo caso, os roubos ocorridos na guerra entram nas "reparações de guerra".
 
Assim, os Gregos têm que insistir que emprestaram o dinheiro de "livre vontade". Mas aí surge outro problema:  de livre vontade e cientes de que o dinheiro seria utilizado para manter/sustentar a destruição provocada pelo nazis? Na Grécia e noutros países.  Mas, mas... se era assim, então estavam a ajudar o esforço de guerra de livre e consciente vontade? Ou acreditavam que seria para ajuda humanitária?

O que quero dizer é que as  questões nunca são tão lineares como podemos desejar.

Depois de fechar a questão das reparações de guerra, só mesmo o desespero dos últimos anos para abrir uma caixa de pandora destas. Quantos países surgiram a querer obter mais dinheiro por vias semelhantes?

Dilath Larath

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Re:Investir na Grécia
« Responder #2239 em: 2015-03-24 20:32:18 »
Nazi Extortion: Study Sheds New Light on Forced Greek Loans
By Manfred Ertel, Katrin Kuntz and Walter Mayr

Is Germany liable to Athens for loans the Nazis forced the Greek central bank to provide during World War II? A new study in Greece could increase the pressure on Berlin to pay up.


Loukas Zisis, the deputy mayor of Distomo, a village nestled in the hills about a two hour drive from Athens, says he thinks about the Germans every day. On June 10, 1944, the Germans massacred 218 people in Distomo, including dozens of children. Zisis, who is just 48 years old, wasn't yet born at the time of the attack.

"We can't forget the Germans," Zisis says. They came to Distomo 71 years ago with their guns. "Today they are exerting power over our village with their banks and policies," he adds. He's standing in the wind on a rocky ledge, a small man in a leather jacket, and looking out over the town. Two-thousand people live here.

The massacre, which continues to shape the place today, was one of the most brutal crimes committed by the Nazis in Greece, with the carnage lasting several hours. For decades, a trial over the massacre wound its way through the courts at all levels in Greece and Germany. Greece's highest court, the Areopag, ruled in 2000 that Germany must pay damages to Distomo's bereaved.

"But we are still waiting," says Zisis. "There has been no compensation."

Last week in Greek parliament, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras demanded German reparations payments, indirectly linking them to the current situation in Greece. "After the reunification of Germany in 1990, the legal and political conditions were created for this issue to be solved," Tsipras said. "But since then, German governments chose silence, legal tricks and delay. And I wonder, because there is a lot of talk at the European level these days about moral issues: Is this stance moral?"

Tspiras was essentially countering German allegations that Greece lives beyond its means with the biggest counteraccusation possible: German guilt. Leaving aside the connection drawn by Tsipras, which many consider to be inappropriate, there are many arguments to support the Greek view. SPIEGEL itself reported in February that former Chancellor Helmut Kohl used tricks in 1990 in order to avoid having to pay reparations.

A study conducted by the Greek Finance Ministry, commissioned way back in 2012 by a previous government, has now been completed and contains new facts. The 194-page document has been obtained by SPIEGEL.

Outstanding German Debt

The central question in the report is that of forced loans the Nazi occupiers extorted from the Greek central bank beginning in 1941. Should requests for repayment of those loans be classified as reparation demands -- demands that may have been forfeited with the Two-Plus-Four Treaty of 1990? Or is it a genuine loan that must be paid back? The expert commission analyzed contracts and agreements from the time of the occupation as well as receipts, remittance slips and bank statements.

They found that the forced loans do not fit into the category of classical war reparations. The commission calculated the outstanding German "debt" to the Greek central bank and came to a total sum of $12.8 billion as of December 2014, which would amount to about €11 billion.

As such, at issue between Germany and Greece is no longer just the question as to whether the 115 million deutsche marks paid to the Greek government from 1961 onwards for its peoples' suffering during the occupation sufficed as legal compensation for the massacres like those in the villages of Distomo and Kalavrita. Now the key issue is whether the successor to the German Reich, the Federal Republic of Germany, is responsible for paying back loans extorted by the Nazi occupiers. There's some evidence to indicate that this may be the case.

In terms of the amount of the loan debt, the Greek auditors have come to almost the same findings as those of the Nazis' bookkeepers shortly before the end of the war. Hitler's auditors estimated 26 days before the war's end that the "outstanding debt" the Reich owed to Greece at 476 million Reichsmarks.

Auditors in Athens calculated an "open credit line" for the same period of time of around $213 million. They assumed a dollar exchange rate to the Reichsmark of 2:1 and applied an interest escalation clause accepted by the German occupiers that would result in a value of more than €11 billion today.

'No Ifs or Buts'

This outstanding debt has to be paid back "with no ifs or buts," says German historian Hagen Fleischer in Athens, who knows the relevant files better than anyone else. Even before the new report, he located numerous documents that prove without any doubt, he believes, the character of forced loans. Nazi officials noted on March 20, 1944, for example, that the "Reich's debt" to Athens had totaled 1,068 billion drachmas as of December 31 of the previous year.

"Forced loans as war debt pervade all the German files," says Fleischer, who is a professor of modern history at the University of Athens. He has lived in Athens since 1977 and has since obtained Greek citizenship. He says that files from postwar German authorities about questions of war debt "shocked" him far more than the war documents on atrocities and suffering.

In them, he says German diplomats use the vocabulary of the National Socialists to discuss reparations issues, speaking of a "final solution for so-called war crimes problems," or stating that it was high time for a "liquidation of memory." He says it was in this spirit that compensation payments were also constantly refused. Fleischer had long been accused of bias and he says he is now pleased to have support from Athens -- particularly given that the present study has nothing to do with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' Syriza government.

When work on the study first began in early 2012, the cabinet of independent Prime Minister Loukas Papademos still governed in Athens. A former vice president of the European Central Bank, Papademos formed a six-month transition government after Georgios Papandreou resigned. In April 2014, the successor government of conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras decided to continue work on the study and appointed Panagiotis Karakousis to lead the team of experts. The longtime general director of the Finance Ministry was considered to be politically unobjectionable.

50,000 Pages of Documents

Karakousis spent five months reading 50,000 pages of original documents from the central bank's archives. It wasn't easy reading. The study calculates right down to the gram the amount of gold plundered from private households, especially those of Greek Jews: 7,358.0014 kilograms of pure gold with an equivalent value today of around €235 million. It also notes also how German troops, as they pulled out, quickly took along "the entire cash reserves from branch offices and regional branches" of the central bank: Exactly 634,962,691,995,162 drachmas in notes and coins, which would total about €40 million today.

Above all, the study, with some reservations, provides clarity about the forced loans. "No reasonable person can now doubt that these loans existed and that the repayment remains open," says Karakousis.

This history of the loans began in April 1941, after the German troops rushed to assist their Italian allies and occupied Greece. In order to provide their troops with provisions, the German occupiers demanded reimbursement for their expenses, the so-called occupation costs. It's a cynical requirement, but one that became standard practice after the 1907 Hague Convention.

Out of the ordinary, though, was the Wehrmacht requirement that the Greeks finance the provision of its troops on other fronts -- in the Balkans, in Russia or in North Africa -- despite Hague Convention rules forbidding such a practice. Initially, the German occupiers demanded 25 million Reichsmarks per month from the government in Athens, around 1.5 billion drachmas. But the amount they actually took was considerably higher. The expert commission determined that payments made by the Greek central bank between August and December 1941 totaled 12 billion rather than 7 billion drachmas.

'Unlimited Sums in the Form of Loans'

With their economy laid to waste, the Greeks soon began pushing for reductions. At a conference in Rome, the Germans and Italians decided on March 14, 1942 to halve their occupation costs to 750 million drachmas each. But the study claims that Hitler's deputies demanded "unlimited sums in the form of loans." Whatever the Germans collected over and above the 750 million would be "credited to the Greek government," a German official noted in 1942.

The sums of the forced loans were up to 10 times as high as the occupation costs. During the first half of 1942, they totaled 43.4 billion drachmas, whereas only 4.5 billion for the provision of troops was due.

A number of installment payments, which Athens began pressing for in March 1943, serve to verify the nature of the loans. Historian Fleischer also found records relating to around two dozen payment installments. For example, the payment office of the Special Operations Southeast was instructed on October 6, 1944 to pay, inflation adjusted, an incredible sum of 300 billion drachma to the Greek government and to book it as "repayment."

'Debts Have to Be Paid Back'

In Fleischer's opinion, the report makes unequivocally clear that the Greek demands do not relate to reparations for wartime injustices that could serve as a precedent for other countries. "One can negotiate reparations politically," Fleischer says. "Debts have to be paid back -- even between friends."

Postwar Greek governments sought repayment early on. The German ambassador confirmed on October 15, 1966, for example, that the Greeks had already come knocking "over an alleged claim."

On November 10, 1995, then Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou proposed the opening of talks aimed at a settlement of the "German debts to Greece." He proposed that "every category of these claims would be examined separately." Papandreous' effort ultimately didn't lead anywhere.

So what happens now? What should become of this new study, the contents of which had remained secret before now?

"I am not a politician," says Karakousis, "I've just done my duty."

But the question also remains whether the surviving relatives of the victims of Distomo will ever be provided with justice -- and whether there are similar cases in other countries.

German lawyer Joachim Lau, whose law firm is based in Florence, Italy, represents the interests of village residents of Distomo even today. Lau, born in Stuttgart, a white-haired man of almost 70, is fighting for compensation in the name of the Greek and Italian victims of the Nazis. "I am disappointed by the manner in which Germany is dealing with this question," he says. He says it's not just an issue of financial compensation. More than anything, it is one of justice.

Careless Statements

In February, Lau warned German President Joachim Gauck in an open letter against propagating the "violation of international law" with careless statements about the reparations issue. In his view, the legal situation is clear: Greek and Italian citizens and their relatives affected by "shootings, massacres by the Wehrmacht, by deportations or forced labor illegal under international law" have the right to individual claims.

For the past decade, Lau has been pursuing the claims of the Distomo victims in Italy. The Court of Cassation in Rome affirmed in 2008 that the claims were legitimate and that he could pursue the case. Earlier, the lawyer had already succeeded in securing Villa Vigoni, a palatial estate on the shore of Lake Como owned by Germany -- and used by a private German association focused on promoting German-Italian relations -- as collateral for the suit. In 2009, Lau succeeded in having €51 million in claims made by Deutsche Bahn against Italian state railway Trenitalia seized. On Tuesday, the high court in Rome is expected to rule on the lifting of the enforcement order.

Following a ruling made by Italy's Constitutional Court in October 2014, private suits in Italy against Germany have been possible again. One of the justices who issued the ruling is the current president of Italy, Sergio Mattarella.

It remains unclear whether this ruling will unleash "a wave of new proceedings" in Italy, says Lau, who currently represents 150 cases, including various class-action lawsuits.

Present and Past, Guilt and Anger

Everything connects in the mountain village of Distoma -- the present and past, guilt and anger, the Greek demands on Germany today and past calls for reparations. Efrosyni Perganda sits in the well-heated living room of her home. The diminutive woman, 91 years of age, has alert eyes and wears a black dress. She survived the massacre perpetrated by the Germans at Distomo and she's one of the few witnesses still alive in the village.

The bones of victims of the Nazi killings in Distomo are features as part of the village's memorial to the massacre.

When the SS company undertook a so-called act of atonement in Distomo following a fight with Greek partisans, the soldiers also captured her husband. Efrosyni Perganda stood by with her baby as they took him. She never saw him again.

As the Germans began to rampage, she hid behind the bathroom door and later behind the living room door of the house in which she still lives today. She held her baby tightly against her chest. "I forgive my husband's murderers," she says.

Loukas Zisis, the deputy mayor, silently leaves the house as the woman finishes telling her story. He needs a break and heads over to the tavern, where he orders a glass of wine. "I admire Germany: Marx, Engels, Nietzsche," he says. "The prosperity. The degree to which society is organized. But here in the village, we aren't finding peace because the German state isn't settling its debt."

Zisis admires Germany, but the country remains incomprehensible to him. "We haven't even heard a single apology so far," he says once again. "That has to do with Germany's position in Europe." This is something that he just doesn't understand, he says.

spiegel
O meu patrão quer ser Califa no lugar do Califa