Israel é o nosso farol.
É olhar para o grafico dos mortos e ver se cai a pique ou nao.
Com os grupos de risco ja vacinados se o grafico das mortes nao crashar, algo dr grave se passa.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/master/images/country_charts/Israel.png
Ainda é muito cedo, mas para já as expetativas são as melhores!
0s resultados da vacinação em Israel começam-se a ver de forma clara:
Mass observation
With this in store for many countries, Israel is the place to watch for the first evidence about how mass vaccination may change things, for it has vaccinated its citizens faster than anywhere else. By January 19th, a month after the campaign had begun, Israel had given 26% of its 9m people at least one dose. As has happened elsewhere, it started with older people. And for them, some results are now emerging.
In a recent analysis, Ran Balicer of the Clalit Research Institute in Tel Aviv and his colleagues compared, day by day, a group of 200,000 over-60s who had been vaccinated with an otherwise-similar group of unvaccinated individuals. They tracked differences in infection rates between the groups by comparing test results for people in them who were tested for covid after reporting pertinent symptoms or close contact with someone who had previously tested positive.
For the study’s first 12 days, positive test rates remained identical between groups. On the 13th, the vaccinated group’s rate fell slightly. Then, on day 14, it dropped by a third. There has been some disappointment that this drop was not greater, but the vaccine in question, the Pfizer-BioNTech offering, is intended to be given in two doses, so the picture will not be clear until the second doses have been administered, and results from younger people have been included, too.
Em resumo, um estudo feito com 200,000 vacinados, observaram que 14 dias após a primeira toma, a taxa de infectados era 33% mais baixa no grupo de vacinados.
E ainda mais relevante, este excelente grafico:
A sign that vaccination is starting to give Israeli hospitals some breathing space emerged a fortnight after January 2nd, the day when the proportion of those over 60 who had been vaccinated reached 40%.
he number critically ill with covid-19 in that age group grew by about 30% in the week before January 2nd, and also in the following week—but by just 7% in the week after that (see chart 2).
By contrast, among those aged between 40 and 55 (who were vaccinated at a much lower rate at the time) the weekly change in the number of critically ill remained constant, with a 20-30% increase in each of those three weeks.
A faixa etaria que já está quase toda vacinada (+60 anos), praticamente estagnou no ritmo de crescimento de admissões nos hospitais, ao contrario das faixas etarias onde a vacinação está por acontecer.
Excelentes sinais!
Pelo menos para a estirpe "original" e a inglesa, a vacina controla a pandemia.
Quando chegar a minha vez de receber a vacina, quero é logo receber um coktail que me proteja de todas as esirpes que por aí andam á solta
