relacionado... a luta ideologica dentro do BCE
https://www.ft.com/content/6735a39c-1e43-11e8-956a-43db76e69936 On the face of it, it looks an easy choice for Germany. More than at any other point in the history of monetary union Berlin has the clout — and a willing candidate in Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann — to secure the presidency of the European Central Bank.
But officials in the eurozone’s largest and most powerful economy are still hesitating whether to risk political capital on a campaign to anoint one of their own as Mario Draghi’s successor. The fear is that they will have to bend too much to Paris and Rome’s vision of European monetary union in return.
“The price can’t be too high,” said one German official. “The question is what political and economic benefit it brings to Germany.”
The ECB presidency is not only the top job in European finance; it is also one of the most contentious appointments in EU politics. With Mr Draghi stepping down only towards the end of 2019, a final decision is unlikely to come until after the European elections next year.
A deal on the central bank chief is part of a broader package that will shape how, and by whom, Europe’s economy is governed for most of the coming decade.
Also to be decided as part of the package is the post of European Commission president, and whether and how vigorously the eurozone pursues reforms championed by Emmanuel Macron. The French president’s calls for more economic union and greater risk sharing between eurozone member states are anathema to many in Germany.
The wrangling has already begun, with France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire signalling last week that Paris is far from convinced that a German ECB presidency is a done deal.
Privately, some officials close to Mr Macron are adamant that they will not accept Mr Weidmann, who is seen as one of the most hawkish members of the ECB’s governing council often out of kilter with the prevailing view.
“We are not going to say we don’t want a German ECB president as a matter of principle,” one French diplomat said. “The issue is more about where the person stands on monetary policy, whether he is a hawk or a dove at a time when the ECB envisages exiting quantitative easing.”
“It’s impossible that it’s Weidmann,” another EU diplomat added. “He is just too extreme in his positions.”
Italian officials also insist that they will not support a monetary policy hawk after the Draghi years, which were marked by ultra-loose monetary policy and the ECB chief’s vow to do “whatever it takes” to save the eurozone.
It would be a coup for her [Merkel] if Weidmann gets in. On the other hand she’ll get it in the neck from the party if she doesn’t get her way
German official
“Draghi really innovated in terms of management of the ECB, and he proved in a positive way even in very delicate moments, avoiding the errors made previously by the bank and governments,” said Sandro Gozi, the secretary of state for European affairs in Italy’s outgoing government.
“We rule out a German-style leadership like that which dominated during the financial crisis but it’s not a problem of nationality, it’s a matter of policy.”
The next Italian government could prove to be even more intransigent on the matter.
For much of the eurozone, the nationality of the ECB chief remains a highly sensitive issue.
For Germany chancellor Angela Merkel, a successful campaign for Mr Weidmann would help silence dissent from the right wing of her party, which is suspicious that Ms Merkel is too keen to bend to Mr Macron’s agenda.
“It would be a coup for her [Merkel] if Weidmann gets in,” one German official said. “On the other hand she’ll really get it in the neck from the party if she doesn’t get her way.”
Mr Weidmann, a former chief economic adviser to Ms Merkel, is the clear favourite to secure the role, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists.
Ms Merkel is set to decide in the autumn whether or not to nominate a candidate and is thought likely to back Mr Weidmann. The Bundesbank itself is pressing the chancellery to avoid discussing other names for the position.
However, the German government also sees issues such as education and digitalisation as more important to the eurozone economy. These are areas where Jean-Claude Juncker’s successor as president of the commission will wield more influence than the next ECB chief.
In addition, many Germans’ top priority for the ECB is a change in policy rather than personnel. German savers hate low interest rates, while the broader economic and political establishment denounces the bank’ €2.3tn quantitative easing programme.
The country’s booming economy, which some fear is turning into a bubble, contrasts with high unemployment elsewhere in the eurozone.
According to such a view, appointing a German as ECB chief would only make economic sense if it would speed the way to higher interest rates. That would not be the case if the price of the post were constraints on policy.
Mr Weidmann supports low rates, but has attacked Mr Draghi’s “whatever it takes” rhetoric. He has also hit out at the quantitative easing programme, which many now credit with kick-starting a broad economic recovery through large-scale asset purchases.
Such a hawkish record has led to speculation that a candidate from another northern European economy will eventually secure the role.
Centre-right German legislators say their goal is in a new era at the ECB, whether under a German head or an official from another northern European creditor state.
Non-German candidates include Finns Erkki Liikanen, current central bank governor, and Olli Rehn, a former EU commissioner responsible for the single currency, as well as Klaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank.
“No one wants to play the German card at the ECB,” said Hans Michelbach, a senior CSU Bundestag MP.
“We really don’t care what nationality the next ECB chief is. They could be from Finland, or Austria, or the Netherlands. But whoever they are, there has to be a new start at the ECB. They must stop the bank just printing money.”
