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Autor Tópico: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal  (Lida 296641 vezes)

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1600 em: 2023-03-16 00:34:03 »
Temos de permitir o nuclear
e voltar ao fóssil.


Inteiramente de acordo!


Quanto a «A OPEP há-de parar de rir.» já tenho imensas dúvidas...
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

vbm

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1601 em: 2023-03-16 08:26:45 »
O seu monopolismo decrescerá.

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1602 em: 2023-03-16 19:20:09 »
O seu monopolismo decrescerá.

A OPEP não tem nem nunca teve qualquer monopólio!
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

vbm

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1603 em: 2023-03-16 21:57:13 »
Combinam entre si a produção a vender
impondo a cotação que lhes componha
o proveito almejado. É verdade que
também rompem com os acordos,
mas mais fracos ficarão com
o nuclear a suprir
a procura.

Reg

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1604 em: 2023-03-16 22:15:21 »

  sao quase todos islamicos

islamicos e  1 pais latino!

« Última modificação: 2023-03-16 22:16:14 por Reg »
Democracia Socialista Democrata. igualdade de quem berra mais O que é meu é meu o que é teu é nosso

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1605 em: 2023-03-17 00:34:59 »
Combinam entre si a produção a vender
impondo a cotação que lhes componha
o proveito almejado. É verdade que
também rompem com os acordos,
mas mais fracos ficarão com
o nuclear a suprir
a procura.


A energia nuclear não substitui os combustíveis fósseis!

Carros, camiões, aviões, barcos, comboios nucleares??   ;D
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1606 em: 2023-03-17 00:36:18 »

  sao quase todos islamicos

islamicos e  1 pais latino!

E a Rússia tb lhes está actualmente associada!
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

vbm

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1607 em: 2023-03-17 08:34:32 »
[  ]

Carros, camiões, aviões, barcos, comboios nucleares??   ;D

Não perguntes a mim.

Pergunta aos engenheiros.
Ou ao Elon Musk com as
suas baterias SpaceX's

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1608 em: 2023-03-17 11:48:38 »
[  ]

Carros, camiões, aviões, barcos, comboios nucleares??   ;D

Não perguntes a mim.

Pergunta aos engenheiros.
Ou ao Elon Musk com as
suas baterias SpaceX's


Pois, podem sempre surgir alguns milagres!   ;D
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

Kin2010

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1609 em: 2023-03-17 19:10:41 »
Mas prevê-se que, devido aos avanços muito recentes na tecnologia de baterias, que as tornarão mais leves para a mesma energia armazenada, os aviões eléctricos poderão desenvolver-se e não serão só aviões pequenos. E isto para breve.

Reg

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1610 em: 2023-03-17 19:13:36 »
  agora serem viaveis

como carro diesel pode estar parado meses e funcionar na mesma,  isso nao existe nos eletricos

 baterias sao bem caras, para mudar cada vez que morrem

ha carros alemaes dos anos 70  que funcionam ainda hoje...  um eletrico dura 10 anos...

ha cimento antigo dura 2000 anos   inventado pelo imperio romano

ha cimento seculo 20     dura 100 anos.......


   isto nao e sempre melhor....  ha muita coisa que

e mudar cavalo para burro!

os progressistas  ignoram  isto passar de cavalo burro


 cimento moderno dura 100 anos   e bancos investem nisto.....!!!!! 




https://veja.abril.com.br/ciencia/por-que-o-concreto-romano-e-mais-resistente-do-que-o-moderno/


Para durar mais de 2.000 anos e sobreviver até os dias de hoje, as construções da Roma Antiga eram feitas com um tipo de concreto muito mais resistente que o atual. O segredo para a durabilidade? A mistura era feita com cinzas vulcânicas, cal e um ingrediente especial – água do mar. Os elementos dessa “receita original” formam um mineral chamado tobermorita aluminosa, que fica cada vez mais forte com o passar do tempo.


  mas politicos resolveram fazer cidades betao duram 100 anos....

depois pensam sao modernos..avancados....  e espertos...

hoje em dia duram 50 anos ,,,..... o betao de uma casa....  sempre diminuir...





e progresso  do homem branco   antigamento faziam coisas para durar......

hoje dia fazem coisas para o espetaculo!


daqui 300 anos nao vai sobrar obra nenhuma de pe do seculo 20







« Última modificação: 2023-03-17 19:33:13 por Reg »
Democracia Socialista Democrata. igualdade de quem berra mais O que é meu é meu o que é teu é nosso

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1611 em: 2023-03-17 21:58:49 »
Mais um artigo interessante:


«Biden Thinks Oil Will Be Around For A Decade—It’ll Be Much Longer
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 21, 2023, 7:00 PM CST

    Biden in the State of the Union speech: oil will be needed for at least another 10 years.
    Independent experts agree that global oil and natural gas demand will increase over the next 30 years.
    Even as total oil demand peaks before 2050, demand is unlikely to fall off a cliff.

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The United States will need oil production for at least another decade, President Joe Biden said in his State of the Union address earlier this month.  Analysts and major forecasters say that globally, it could be at least another decade until oil demand peaks, and even after that, consumption will not fall off a cliff. Instead, in most scenarios, oil demand is set for a long and slow decline through 2050, but even in 2050, the world will need oil, all forecasters say.       

“At Least Another Decade”

President Biden slammed Big Oil in his State of the Union address, saying, “Have you noticed — Big Oil just reported its profits. Record profits. Last year, they made $200 billion in the midst of a global energy crisis. I think it’s outrageous.” 

Then he veered off the prepared speech and said that in talks with some oil companies, they told him why they didn’t invest more to increase domestic production.

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“And when I talked to a couple of them, they say, “We were afraid you were going to shut down all the oil wells and all the oil refineries anyway, so why should we invest in them?” I said, “We’re going to need oil for at least another decade, and that’s going to exceed…” — and beyond that. We’re going to need it. Production.”

The President and his Administration are calling on energy firms to boost oil production in the short term to keep American gasoline prices low. But the industry wants long-term policy encouraging investment in supply and assurances that the U.S. oil and gas industry will be treated as an asset, not a liability. Oil firms want to know whether their potential future investments have a chance to make returns and not be botched by federal regulatory and policy hurdles.

Related: Saudi Arabia’s Oil Revenues Hit $326 Billion In 2022

Since President Biden took office, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has called on policymakers to ensure U.S. oil production is thriving.

In one of the latest initiatives, API proposed a policy plan for Congress to promote policies enabling investment in the U.S. oil, gas, and refining sectors.

“Independent experts agree that global oil and natural gas demand will increase over the next 30 years. And nearly half of the world’s energy is expected to come from natural gas and oil in 2050,” API President and CEO Mike Sommers said last month, commenting on the plan.

“That demand will be met one way or another. If America does not meet it, it will be met by countries that do not share our security interests, environmental standards, or values,” Sommers added.

Peak Demand Doesn’t Mean ‘No Oil’

Global fossil fuel consumption is expected to peak or plateau within this decade, accelerated by the policy and trade flow shifts following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest annual report last year.

For the first time ever, a World Energy Outlook scenario from the IEA based on the current government policies and settings has global demand for every fossil fuel showing a peak or plateau, the agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2022. Even natural gas, which was previously expected to continue rising, could now join coal and oil in peaking around 2030, per the IEA’s latest estimates.

According to the BP Energy Outlook 2023, oil demand is expected to peak between the late 2020s and early 2030s as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is accelerating investment in clean energy and governments are looking to bolster energy security with higher shares of renewables in the energy mix.

However, BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale said, “The scale of the economic and social disruptions over the past year associated with the loss of just a fraction of the world’s fossil fuels has also highlighted the need for the transition away from hydrocarbons to be orderly‎.” 

BP’s CEO Bernard Looney also stressed “an orderly” transition when he announced this month that the supermajor would be producing more oil and gas for longer, and now aims for a fall of 20% to 30% in emissions from the carbon in its oil and gas production in 2030 compared to a 2019 baseline, lower than the previous aim of 35-40%. 

Supply Challenges

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Whatever the speed of the energy transition, the world will still need oil and gas for decades. Industry professionals say that exploration and production will still be needed because the rate of depletion of existing fields is faster than the rate at which oil demand is expected to begin falling once it peaks, probably at some point around 2030.

Known fields alone cannot meet oil and gas demand to 2050, Andrew Latham, Vice President, Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a report this month. 

“The world is far from the end of the hydrocarbon era,” Latham said, adding that in WoodMac’s base-case Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), oil demand peaks in 2030, before declining slowly to 94 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2050. Even in the Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) outlook of global net zero by 2050 and achieving the most ambitious targets in the Paris Agreement, oil demand will still be 33 million bpd by 2050.

“We see enough advantaged resources to satisfy only about half of our base-case oil and gas demand forecast to 2050,” Latham says. According to WoodMac, “advantaged resources” are the supply of lower-cost, lower-carbon barrels. And this supply remains scarce, the consultancy notes.       

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Thinks-Oil-Will-Be-Around-For-A-DecadeItll-Be-Much-Longer.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1612 em: 2023-03-17 22:00:18 »
E um comentário pertinente sobre o mesmo:


«Mamdouh Salameh on February 22 2023 said:

Those so-called analysts and major forecasters who believe oil demand will peak in the next decade are living on another planet and are self-deluding themselves and trying to delude others.

In my view, oil and gas will continue to drive the global economy throughout the 21st century and probably far beyond.

I continue to repeat the following mantras:

1- There can never be a post-oil era well into the future until global oil reserves are totally depleted which is unthinkable or an alternative as versatile and practicable as oil itself is discovered which is highly unlikely in the next 100 years.

2- A peak in oil demand by 2050 or even 2100 is a myth. Demand for oil will continue to grow albeit at a slightly decelerating rate well into the future underpinned by rising global population and growing global economy.

3- The notions of total global energy transition and net-zero emissions by 2050 are myths. They aren’t going to happen even by 2100 or ever. Even a partial transition can never succeed without huge contributions from natural gas and to some extent nuclear energy and coal. The flaw in renewables is their intermittency. They need a backup system and the most popular system is natural gas.

4- Electric vehicles (EVs) can never prevail over internal combustion engines (ICEs) now or ever. Advance in ICE technology in terms of environment friendliness, far less emissions and price will see to that.

5- Any attempts to force force an energy transition at the expense of fossil fuels whether by legislation, mandates or bans will only plunge the world in more destructive energy crises. The recent history is a case in point.


Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Biden-Thinks-Oil-Will-Be-Around-For-A-DecadeItll-Be-Much-Longer.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1613 em: 2023-03-17 22:05:04 »
Mais um artigo com interesse:


«Offshore Oil And Gas Drilling: A Comprehensive Guide

By Michael Kern - Mar 06, 2023, 5:00 PM CST

    Offshore oil and gas drilling is a complex process that involves extracting reserves from underneath the seabed.
    It has been used for decades and remains essential in meeting energy needs for many countries.
    Offshore drilling also has environmental impacts that need to be addressed through sustainable solutions.


Offshore oil and gas drilling is a complex process that involves drilling into the seabed to extract oil and natural gas reserves. The process has been used for decades, with many countries relying on it as a source of energy.

In this article, we’ll take a closer look at how offshore oil and gas drilling works, where the best places to drill are, why we need to keep drilling offshore, its environmental impact, and ways to reduce its impact while still producing oil.
How Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling Works

Offshore drilling begins with surveying the seabed to determine the best location for drilling. Once a suitable site is found, a platform is erected in the water, which serves as a base for the drilling rig. The platform can be either fixed or floating depending on the water depth.

Next, a drill bit is lowered into the seabed to create a hole in the earth's crust. The drill bit can penetrate thousands of feet below sea level until it reaches the reservoir containing oil or natural gas.


To prevent the hole from collapsing, steel casing is inserted into it. The casing also helps control any pressure build-up during production activities.

Finally, pipes are inserted into the hole to extract the oil or gas. These pipes are connected to tanks on board the platform where they are stored before being transported to shore.
Advanced Technologies Used in Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling

Over time, new technology has been developed to improve offshore drilling operations' efficiency and safety. Some of these technologies include:

    Directional Drilling: Directional drilling allows operators to drill at an angle instead of straight down, making it easier to reach reservoirs located far away from the platform.
    Blowout Preventers (BOPs): BOPs are critical safety devices that prevent uncontrolled release of oil or gas from wells by sealing them off during emergencies.
    Subsea Production Systems: These systems allow production activities like processing and storage of extracted fluids to occur underwater without requiring platforms on top of them.

The Best Places for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling

Offshore oil and gas drilling is a crucial part of the global energy industry. It provides a significant portion of the world's crude oil and natural gas supply, making it an essential component of modern life. However, not all offshore locations are created equal when it comes to oil and gas production. In this article, we'll explore some of the best places for offshore oil and gas drilling.
Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer of crude oil, with over 266 billion barrels in reserves. It has been producing oil for more than 80 years and has extensive experience in offshore drilling. The country has several major offshore fields, including Safaniya, which is the world's largest offshore field.
Brazil

Brazil has emerged as one of the world's leading producers of offshore oil and gas in recent years. Its pre-salt reserves, located off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, are estimated to contain up to 100 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent. This represents one of the largest discoveries in decades.
Mexico

Mexico has vast reserves of offshore oil and gas, particularly in its Gulf of Mexico waters. The country is home to several large fields such as Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) - Cantarell Complex that have contributed significantly to its overall production levels.
Norway

Norway is one of Europe's top producers of oil and gas from its North Sea waters. The country has a long history of offshore exploration dating back to the 1960s when it discovered its first significant field at Ekofisk.
United States

The United States is a significant player in global offshore drilling with extensive operations along its Gulf of Mexico region. The Gulf of Mexico region alone accounts for over 15% of domestic crude oil production.

In addition to these countries listed above, there are several other notable locations for offshore drilling such as Russia, China, Australia, Qatar among others.

While these locations offer promising opportunities for offshore drilling ventures, it is important to note that they come with environmental risks that must be carefully managed through proper safety measures and regulations that ensure sustainable development practices are put into place.
Why We Need to Keep Drilling Offshore

Oil remains an essential part of our daily lives; it powers our cars, heats our homes, and fuels our industries. While renewable energy sources like solar and wind power have shown tremendous growth over recent years, they still cannot meet all our energy needs alone. Therefore, we need to continue drilling offshore until cleaner alternatives become more widely available.
Meeting Energy Demands

The world’s demand for oil and gas continues to grow, and offshore drilling plays a crucial role in meeting this demand. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy consumption will increase by 50% by 2050. Without offshore drilling, we would struggle to meet this demand.

Alternative energy sources such as wind and solar are becoming more popular, but they cannot replace oil and gas entirely. These sources of energy are unpredictable and intermittent, meaning they can’t provide a constant supply of energy like fossil fuels can.
Job Creation

Offshore oil and gas drilling creates jobs in many different sectors, from engineers who design rigs to the workers who operate them. Companies like ExxonMobil and Shell employ thousands of people around the world in their offshore operations.

These jobs not only provide employment opportunities but also contribute significantly to local economies. In some areas where there are few other job prospects, offshore drilling can be a lifeline for communities.
Economic Growth

Offshore drilling also contributes significantly to national economies. The oil and gas industry generates billions of dollars in revenue every year, which helps fund infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and schools.

In addition, countries with significant oil reserves can use their resources as leverage in international trade negotiations. The United States has become less dependent on foreign oil thanks to increased domestic production from fracking and offshore drilling.
Advancements in Technology

Technology has made significant advances in recent years that have made offshore drilling safer than ever before. Modern rigs are designed with safety features that prevent spills from occurring or quickly contain them if they do happen.

Furthermore, companies have developed new techniques for extracting oil without harming marine life or disrupting ecosystems. For example, directional drilling allows companies to access reserves without disturbing the ocean floor or disrupting fish habitats.


Environmental Impact of Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling

Offshore oil and gas drilling has become a major source of energy production in recent years. However, it also poses significant environmental risks. Here are some of the ways offshore drilling can impact the environment:

    Oil spills: Accidents can happen during drilling or transportation, leading to oil spills that harm marine life and damage coastal communities.
    Noise pollution: The loud sounds produced by offshore drilling equipment can disrupt the communication and behavior of marine animals.
    Air pollution: Drilling rigs emit pollutants like nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter into the air, which can contribute to respiratory problems in nearby communities.
    Habitat destruction: Building and operating offshore drilling facilities can harm sensitive ecosystems like coral reefs and wetlands.

Despite these risks, there are steps that can be taken to make offshore drilling safer for the environment.
Reducing Environmental Impacts

While it may seem challenging to produce oil while minimizing environmental impact, some strategies can help achieve this goal:

    Investing in technology: Developing new technologies for detecting leaks, preventing accidents, and cleaning up spills can reduce the impact of offshore drilling on the environment.
    Regulating operations: Governments can impose regulations on offshore drilling companies to ensure they follow best practices for safety and environmental protection.
    Using alternative energy sources: Investing in renewable energy sources like wind and solar power can reduce our reliance on fossil fuels altogether.

By taking these steps, we can minimize the impact of offshore oil and gas drilling on our planet while still meeting our energy needs.
Conclusion

Offshore oil and gas drilling is essential in meeting global energy demands today but must be done responsibly with minimal environmental impact.

By utilizing improved technology designs that prioritize safety measures while reducing risk factors like spills through regular maintenance checks or employing quieter seismic survey techniques during exploration activities before any production begins, we can ensure responsible production without compromising environmental health concerns associated with this industry's operations.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Offshore-Oil-And-Gas-Drilling-A-Comprehensive-Guide.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1614 em: 2023-03-21 05:48:27 »
Uma entrevista interessante com Leigh Goehring:

Have We Reached Peak Shale? - Decouple Media

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHzWGnbI9nw
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1615 em: 2023-03-22 02:57:25 »
Mais um artigo interessante:


«Offshore Oil And Gas Is Back With More Than $200 Billion In New Investment

By Rystad Energy - Mar 07, 2023, 11:00 AM CST

   
 Offshore oil and gas is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years.
    Offshore activity is expected to account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024.
    One of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East.


  The offshore oil and gas (O&G) sector is set for the highest growth in a decade in the next two years, with $214 billion of new project investments lined up. Rystad Energy research shows that annual greenfield capital expenditure (capex) will break the $100 billion threshold in 2023 and in 2024 – the first breach for two straight years since 2012 and 2013.

As global fossil fuel demand remains strong and countries look for carbon-friendly production sources, offshore is back in the spotlight. Offshore activity is expected to account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024, up from 40% between 2015-2018. Comparisons against this period are prudent as it predates the Covid-19 pandemic and related oil price crash. In terms of total project count, offshore developments will make up almost half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years, up from just 29% from 2015-2018.

These new investments will be a boon for the offshore services market, with supply chain spending to grow 16% in 2023 and 2024 , a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. Offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish.

One of the leading global drivers is the sizable expansion of offshore activities in the Middle East. For the first time, offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others, lifted by mammoth projects in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The area’s offshore spending growth looks set to continue at least for the next three years, growing from $33 billion this year to $41 billion in 2025. These countries are tapping into their vast offshore resources to meet rising global oil demand, backed by the necessary capital and infrastructure to outpace other producers.
Related: The Kremlin Will Not Recognize Any Price Cap On Russia’s Oil


“Offshore oil and gas production isn’t going anywhere, and the sector matters now possibly more than ever. As one of the lower carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons, offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition,” says Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research with Rystad Energy.

Although the Middle East is leading the way, South America, the UK and Brazil are just slightly behind. Investments in the North Sea from the UK and Norway will rise in the next two years. UK offshore spending is set to jump 30% this year to $7 billion, while Norwegian investments will hit $21.4 billion, an increase of 22% over 2022. Brazilian upstream spending is projected to approach $23 billion this year, with Guyana investments totaling $7 billion. In North America, spending on offshore in the US will top $17.5 billion and $7.3 billion in Mexico.

Brazil state giant Petrobras plans to deploy 16 FPSOs across six fields before the end of this decade, while growth in the Guyanese Stabroek Block will also contribute to regional expansion. In long-term forecasts, Middle Eastern growth is set to continue, if not accelerate, while South American spending will slow in 2025.

By Rystad Energy»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Offshore-Oil-And-Gas-Is-Back-With-More-Than-200-Billion-In-New-Investment.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1616 em: 2023-03-22 23:06:35 »
Um comentário acerca da situação presente:


«Mamdouh Salameh on March 21 2023 said:

Oil market fundamentals are very sound underpinned by China’s economic rebound and its projected economic growth of 5.2%-6.5% in 2023 and also the continuous shrinking in the global spare oil production capacity including OPEC+’s. Moreover, Prices got additional boost when Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced today that Russia will extend its oil production cut of 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) until the end of June.

If the current banking difficulties are sorted out without becoming a full-fledged financial crisis, oil prices will recover all their recent losses in no time.

If, on the other hand, more banks face difficulties, this will intensify fears of a financial crisis and this will impact adversely on prices causing them to fall further despite support from the world’s most bullish factor, China.

However, I am of the opinion that what started as a Silicon Valley Bank collapse will be contained and prevented from precipitating a global financial crisis because of firm action by the US Federal Reserve Bank and coordination with major Central banks around the world.

That is why I will continue to project that Brent crude could hit $90 in the first half of 2023 and touch $100 before the end of the year.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Fundamentals-Push-Oil-Prices-Higher.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1617 em: 2023-03-23 18:54:09 »
«It Will Take Years To Replenish Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Granholm

By Julianne Geiger - Mar 23, 2023, 1:30 PM CDT

Oil prices may be trading in a sweet spot for buyers, but it will take years to replenish the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said.

When the Biden Administration sold off 221 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR last year, the idea was to buy oil to replace what was withdrawn. In October of last year, the Administration announced that it would repurchase crude oil for the reserve when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel. The move would be dual purpose in that not only would it replenish the nation’s depleted reserves, but it would boost demand when prices were low instead of sending them into orbit at a time or regular prices.

In December, the Administration said that it had plans to make the first of these repurchases. The Administration issued a solicitation for 3 million barrels of sour crude oil, with bids due by December 28. Contracts were to be awarded by January 13. At the time, WTI was trading around $74 per barrel. It later declined the finalize its own buyback plan, saying that it did not get offers that met its terms for price or quality.


Today, WTI is trading at just over $71 per barrel—a price that many forecasters don’t think will stick around for long. But according to Granholm, refilling the SPR at $70 per barrel will be difficult this year. In fact, according to Granholm, it will take a few years to replenish.

The SPR currently holds 372 million barrels of crude oil, down from 638 million at the beginning of 2021. It is the lowest level since December 1983. Oil was first delivered into the U.S. SPR in 1977.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/It-Will-Take-Years-To-Replenish-Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve-Granholm.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1618 em: 2023-03-29 18:36:44 »
Mais um artigo interessante sobre Shale, e o respectivo comentário:


«The EIA Is Dead Wrong About The Future Of U.S. Shale
By Irina Slav - Mar 23, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT

    The Energy Information Administration forecast that U.S. crude oil production would rise by close to 600,000 barrels daily this year.
    Quantum Energy: U.S. drilling in the shale patch could decline by as much as 20 percent if prices remain at current levels.
    At lower prices, drilling will begin to shrink, especially at private companies that have much weaker balance sheets than the big players.


In early March, the Energy Information Administration forecast that U.S. crude oil production would rise by close to 600,000 barrels daily this year to a record high of 12.44 million barrels daily. On the surface of it, the industry looked like it had every motive to boost production: demand was strong, especially from overseas, oil prices were higher than breakeven levels across much of the shale patch, and the federal government wanted more oil getting extracted.

However, this was only half of the story. The other half was about industry executives declaring the U.S. shale boom over, cautioning against expectations of much higher production and warning that cost inflation was making a lot of wells uneconomical. On top of it all, many new wells were not as productive as expected in a sign that the top drilling inventory of the U.S. shale industry was nearing exhaustion.

It was in this context that Quantum Energy, the private equity company focused on oil and gas, this week issued a warning: drilling in the U.S. shale patch could decline by as much as 20 percent if prices remain at current levels.

Crude oil prices need to rise to at least $80 per barrel and natural gas prices need to rise to around $3 per million British thermal units for the U.S. shale industry to keep drilling at current rates.


At lower prices, drilling will begin to shrink, especially at private companies that have much weaker balance sheets than the big players, Quantum chief executive Wil VanLogh told Bloomberg.

These comments echo similar ones made by Pioneer Natural Resources’ Scott Sheffield last year when he said that “You just can’t keep growing 15% to 20% a year. You’ll drill up your inventories. Even the good companies.”


Then there is the inflation problem, too, with double-digit price increases hitting the industry and curbing the positive effect of higher oil prices on balance sheets.

“We’ve seen anywhere between 30 and 50 percent inflation — depending on which cost category you’re talking about — that’s what we’re walking into in 2023,” said the chief financial officer of Devon Energy, Jeff Ritenour, during the company’s latest earnings call, in February.

Taken together, all these challenges would naturally combine for weak production growth, with that growth coming from the big shale oil and gas producers who can afford to make smaller profits after a record year.

These record profits, by the way, would provide the industry with a safety belt if the current trend in prices evolves into a downturn. Another private equity firm active in the energy industry said this earlier this month, noting shale drillers’ financial discipline during last year’s boom.

“I don’t think the upstream business has ever been in better position for a downturn than it is today,” Ben Dell, managing partner at Kimmeridge Energy Management, told Bloomberg in an interview last week. “We’re heading to being essentially debt-free as an industry.”

Dell then went on to commend the industry on its focus on profitability rather than production growth and praising drillers for “being rational and dropping rigs and focusing on profitability.”


That was when oil prices were higher than they are now. WTI has slipped to $70 per barrel. Some have argued that the current rout is speculative, a spillover from the banking sector after the two bank collapses in the U.S. and Credit Suisse’s near-death experience. But the fact remains oil prices are lower than they need to be to motivate more drilling in the U.S. shale patch.

Most forecasts are still for output growth this year, but these forecasts were made when oil was about $10 per barrel higher, and all was well in the banking world. In a context where prices can turn on a dime, no producer would make risky production growth plans.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com




    Mamdouh Salameh on March 23 2023 said:

    The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been hyping about US oil production of which 64% comes from shale for years with both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Rystad Energy acting as cheerleaders.

    The truth of the matter is that shale oil is a spent force incapable of raising its production meaningfully. Even veteran shale drillers have admitted as much.

    Yet, the EIA is deluding itself by claiming that US production would rise this year by 600,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 12.44 million barrels a day (mbd). US production could hardly exceed 9.5-10.0 mbd.

    For years experts including shale veterans have been questioning EIA’s figures and in March this year the questioning has been intensifying with the EIA vowing to improve its oil data.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EIA-Is-Dead-Wrong-About-The-Future-Of-US-Shale.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1619 em: 2023-03-30 00:37:41 »
Mais um comentário interessante acerca do crescimento da China e do preço do petróleo em 2023:


«Mamdouh Salameh on March 29 2023 said:


With a projected economic growth of 5.2%-6.5% in 2023, China won’t only lead the Asia-Pacific region’s economies to outstrip the West’s it will also add 1% this year to global economic growth.

Asian economies have always been more vibrant than Western economies with far bigger potential for growth than Western economies. Moreover, inflation rates are far lower than in the West partly because of slightly cheaper Russian crude supplies. And with Asian Central banks ending their quantitative tightening policies, they are in far better shape than their Western counterparts.

And while fears of more trouble in the U.S. banking sector and in the European one are still gripping markets, they hardly affected Asian markets since unlike Western banks who are all still in rate-hiking mode, central banks in Southeast Asia have either stopped monetary tightening or are preparing to wrap it up.

This bodes well for oil prices which will soon recover all their recent losses and surge ahead with Brent crude hitting $9o a barrel in the first half of 2023 and touching $100 during the year.


Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Cheap-Oil-Is-Fueling-Economic-Development-In-Asia.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!