Na revista Bloomberg Markets de Maio vem um artigo de fundo sobre o ministro do petróleo saudita. Os Árabes prevêem que a procura do petróleo abrande devido à melhoria da eficiência energética, fontes de energia renováveis e preocupações ambientais. Em vez do "peek oil", acreditam no "peek of demand" e já estão a trabalhar na diversificação da economia. Mas isso demora algum tempo, e como têm uma economia que depende em 50% das exportações do petróleo estão interessados em aguentar a dependência do petróleo o mais tempo que puderem. Mantendo os preços baixos isso é mais fácil porque desencoraja a aposta em fontes energéticas alternativas, incluindo o petróleo do shale e das areias betuminosas.
peak oil é exactamente o inverso de peak of demand
é fascinante
há meia dúzia de anos toda a gente sabia, mas sabia mesmo, que o peak oil era uma realidade...
é para se ter a noção do quanto se pode estar errado num assunto tão importante como este
L
lembro-me de citar o william jevons num post de resposta ao Ming.
• “And, of course, when Mr. Vivian asserts that South Wales can supply all England for 500 years, he means at the present rate of consumption, which is quite beside the question. The question [of resource depletion] is, how long will South Wales supply us at the present price with the present growing demand?”
• “The higher the price rises, the more thoroughly will the coal-measures be worked, and the more coal becomes workable. As, however, the high price of coal constitutes the evil of exhaustion, the dreaded results are only somewhat mitigated, not prevented. And it would be wholly erroneous to suppose that when once the thicker seams of a coal district have been worked out, we can readily, at a future time, work out the thinner seams, when the increased price of coal warrants it”
• “All then that we can hope from thin seams, or abandoned coal, is a retardation of the rise of price after a considerable rise has already taken place. This will hardly prevent the evils apprehended from exhaustion… If seams of 18 inches are now occasionally workable, the coal-cutting machine may reduce the limit a few inches; but it is evident that seams of less than 12 inches could never be worked while the price of coal remained at all tolerable.”
• “When the general depth of coal workings has increased to 2,000 feet, little or no coal will be sold for less than 10s. per ton, and the choice large coal will have risen to a much higher price. Our iron and general manufacturing industries will have to contend with a nearly double cost of fuel. And when with the growth of our trade and the course of time our mines inevitably reach a depth of 3,000 or 4,000 feet, the increasing cost of fuel will be an incalculable obstacle to our further progress.”
levei uma desanda daquelas...
ironizava eu com o peak coal.
durante anos a crença, a fé (não se lhe pode chamar outra coisa) no peak oil era uma coisa inamovível.
quem ousasse contrariá-la era tratado de ignorante para baixo.
o que meia dúzia de anos fazem.
L
