China Bond Rally at Risk as Li Growth Call Threatens Debt FloodA decision over the weekend to widen the government’s fiscal deficit to a record 3 percent from last year’s 2.3 percent will spur a surge in debt issuance that will push up yields, said China Merchants Securities Co. analyst Sun Binbin. Accelerating inflation and a jump in credit that is seen as positive for the economy are other factors that bond investors need to consider, according to Haitong Securities Co.
“Given the various pro-growth measures, the economy is likely to stabilize later this year, driving up inflation and weighing on the bond market,” said Wei Taiyuan, an investment manager at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shanghai. “Yields are already very low and challenges to the economy have already been priced in. The bond market will probably trade range-bound at best.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/china-bond-rally-at-risk-as-li-growth-call-threatens-debt-floodTo Jumpstart Its Economy, China Embraces…Reaganomics?And if that sounds a little like Reaganomics, that’s kind of the point.
Besides layoffs, Xi’s plan includes tax cuts, deregulation and reductions in state spending—economic policies you might expect to come from the desk of Reagan or Thatcher. We might also expect the results of these policies to be the same in China as in the U.S. and United Kingdom in the 1980s: a boom in entrepreneurship and innovation.
These reforms come at a crucial time for China, whose manufacturing sector has been in contraction mode for a year now as the country’s economy shifts toward domestic consumption. In February, China’s purchasing manager’s index (PMI) fell to 48.0 from 48.4 in January.
In 2015, total retail sales in China touched a record, surpassing 30 trillion renminbi, or about $4.2 trillion. By 2020, sales are expected to climb to $6.4 trillion, representing 50 percent growth in as little as five years. This growth will “roughly equal a market 1.3 times the size of Germany or the United Kingdom,” according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).
One of the main reasons for this surge in consumption is the staggering expansion of the country’s middle class. In October, Credit Suisse reported that, for the first time, the size of China’s middle class had exceeded that of America’s middle class, 109 million to 92 million. As incomes rise, so too does demand for durable and luxury goods, vehicles, air travel, energy and more.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/jumpstart-its-economy-china-embraces%E2%80%A6reaganomics