Commodities: Softs - Cacau (CJ), Algodão (TT), Café (KT), Açúcar (YO)

[Messiah]

Tópico sobre as commodities softs.

Neste momento parece-me que o algodão venha a ter perspectivas interessantes a prazo, sobretudo aliado com a performance recente dos grains o que deve levar a muitos agricultores a escolherem para a próxima 'fornada' grains em detrimento de algodão.

Isto poderá levar a um shortage na produção, ao mesmo tempo que os preços baixos do alogdão actualmente deverão incentivar a maior procura por parte dos consumidores de texteis.

Estes durante o 'runup' de 2010-2011 acabaram por procurar por tecidos alternativos quando confrontados com preço elevado do algodão, apesar do algodão ser um tecido superior. Muito dessa procura em principio voltará com os preços actuais depreciados.

Adicionalmente o lead time do algodão é a mais longa das matérias primas, ou seja, o periodo de duração da matéria prima ser plantada, crescer, ser colhida e finalmente introduzida no mercado. A haver um shortage, esse lead time deverá beneficiar o movimento de preços ascendentes dado que a produção deverá levar tempo a acompanhar o passo.

[Zel]

nao percebo nada deste assunto mas vou acompanhar com interesse

se alguem percebe um pouco podia meter aqui os trades e explicar as razoes

[JCS]

Tenho duas pequenas posições no açucar e no café devido apenas à movimentação dos preços. Quando puder coloco os gráficos.

Cumprimentos

JCS

[Messiah]

A area cultivada no algodão já deste ano comaprativamente ao ano passado, é de menos 15%, ao passo que trigo e milho subiram +5%.

Com os preços a terem a performance actual, é expectável que a area platanda para milho e trigo aumentem consideravelmente para 2013 e o algodão desça ainda mais.

[Zel]

voces negoceiam atraves de futuros ou ETFs?

[Messiah]

futuros/etfs e cfds qnd disponível

[allarc]

Olá,

Há muito tempo que sigo o fórum no económico. Ainda bem que criaram esta nova plataforma, que me parece muito melhor.

Eis a minha modesta visão sobre o açúcar no médio prazo.

O que vos parece?

[Incognitus]

Considerarias que está ali num canal descendente, correcto?

[allarc]

Considerarias que está ali num canal descendente, correcto?

Sim, com uma provável pressão vendedora na LTD diária e nos 61.8% (principais pontos confluentes).

Para mim, uma fraqueza nessa área poderia dar mais sentido ao retorno descendente.

[allarc]

Olá,

Há muito tempo que sigo o fórum no económico. Ainda bem que criaram esta nova plataforma, que me parece muito melhor.

Eis a minha modesta visão sobre o açúcar no médio prazo.

O que vos parece?

Vejamos como (se) irá passar os 61.8%.

[Messiah]

Ora bem, após muitos meses... como havia referido na altura o algodão estava a preparar-se para fazer um fundo ...

Desde Novembro que me tenho mantido longo e com alguns reforços pelo meio ... e neste preciso momento parece estar numa nova perna para pelo menos ir testar os máximos de Fevereiro.

Depois de quebrar os maximos vejo uma ida talvez aos 1.10-1.15 ... quiçá até é possivel isto ser um novo Bull, veremos.

Outra "soft" que parece estar no mesmo ponto que o Algodão estava em Junho do ano passado, é o Café.

Devemos estar numa zona de fundo também parece-me e tem poencial de subida, pelo menos de uns 50%, mesmo que seja apenas uma correcção da queda anterior.

Caso seja uma leg ascendente nova, então ai o potencial é bem maior ...

[Zel]

em que te baseias para achares que o cafe pode estar a fazer um fundo ? fundamentais? estas a pensar num contrato especifico ?

[Vanilla-Swap]

Acho que se enquadra neste tópico.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/01/sec-swaps-crossborder-idUSL2N0DI0QN20130501?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

[JoaoAP]

O Cacau com o ébola... os países problemáticos.. desceu bastante...
MAS... o chocolate continua com grandes crescimentos, em especial o negro, que contém ainda maior percentagem de cacau... parece-me uma entrada aqui interessante com  o devido stop.

Existe o CJ como relatado aqui e alguns ETFs:
NIB mais antigo
CHOC

Deixo uns gráficos...
Se alguém seguir ... deixe uns gráficos ou comentários.. por aqui.
Também pode ser nas outras softs...

[SrSniper]

E o  o açúcar qual a visão do mega urso? No longo prazo ( desde 2010 ) e no curto prazo desde 2015?

[I. I. Kaspov]

Acerca da crise do chocolate...   


«"Confronting The Inevitable Chocolate Crisis" - Charting The Chaos In Cocoa Markets

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Feb 20, 2024 - 01:00 AM


Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, who covers energy and commodities, opined in a piece on Monday about the "coming meltdown" in the global chocolate industry following decades of under-investment across West African nations.


"Unlike most other agricultural commodities, cocoa hasn't developed into a plantation business," Blas said, adding poor farmers dominate cocoa farmers across West Africa, responsible for 75% of the world's cocoa production. Meanwhile, he pointed out that investment only flowed into processing beans into chocolate - "not planting, growing and harvesting cocoa trees."

Because of this, he warned: "We are all now confronting the inevitable chocolate crisis."

The first chart Blas provided readers were cocoa futures in New York blasting into orbit. These prices now command $6,000 per ton, recently breaking the 1977 record.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

"At the end of 2023, cocoa was one of only a four major commodities that still traded below their price peaks set in the 1970s, the previous commodity boom," Blas said.

The commodities analysts said some forecasts suggest the cost of cocoa in New York could reach as high as $10,000 per ton.

What's imminent is the West African cocoa shortage will be felt across supermarkets worldwide.

Just weeks ago, Michele Buck, chief executive officer of The Hershey Co., warned:

    "We can't talk about future pricing ... given where cocoa prices are, we will be using every tool in our toolbox, including pricing, as a way to manage the business."

The four main producing countries, accounting for 75% of the world's cocoa production, are Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.
Source: Bloomberg

West Africa is the king of cocoa.
Source: Bloomberg

Blas presented a chart that illustrates the most significant cocoa bean deficit in modern history is currently underway. He said industry insiders are saying "the market is heading for a deficit of 300,000-to-500,000."
Source: Bloomberg

And global cocoa inventories are collapsing.
Source: Bloomberg

"I'm unconvinced that climate change has anything to do with the current crisis," Blas noted.

Separate from Blas, Bloomberg recently spoke with Paul Davis, the head of cocoa at major softs merchant Sucres et Denrees SA, who warned global cocoa markets will be "in a very tight balance" balance for another 18 months to three years.

Davis continued: "There is no cavalry that's coming to the rescue."

Sigh...»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cocoa-crisis-charts

[I. I. Kaspov]

Pânico no cacau...   


«"Everyone Is Panicking": Major Cocoa Processor Scrambles To Find Beans As Prices Hyperinflate

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Mar 22, 2024 - 10:55 AM


One of the world's largest cocoa processors is scouring the globe for beans as weather and disease spark massive crop failures across West Africa and catapult prices in New York to record highs.

"Everybody is panicking," said Brandon Tay Hoe Lian, chief executive officer of Guan Chong Bhd. He said the company is attempting to procure beans from minor growing countries, including Ecuador, Peru, and Indonesia.

The CEO of the Kuala Lumpur-listed company said prices are soaring weekly as coca beans become harder and harder to find: "We not only have to fight for beans, we're also paying premiums."

Guan Chong's processing plant is still operating normally despite the world heading for a third year of supply deficits primarily due to crop failures across West Africa.

Tay warned:

    "We are quite skeptical about selling a lot because we're worried whether the beans will be delivered.

    "I rather sell the minimum, just in case, as long as my cashflows are healthy. I don't want to commit to something that I cannot deliver."

As of Thursday morning, the most active cocoa contract in New York hit a new record high of $8,600 per ton. He warned the rally is far from over: "There's a lot more room to go higher."

Citi Research analysts recently advised clients that prices could reach as high as $10,000 a ton and stay in record-high territory through the second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, US chocolate maker Hershey Company warned last month: "Historic cocoa prices are expected to limit earnings growth this year."

Bad news for those of us with a sweet tooth...

It's only a matter of time before Biden's PR team of woke college grads blames Putin for candyflation.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/everyone-panicking-major-cocoa-processor-scrambles-find-beans-prices-hyperinflate

[I. I. Kaspov]

«Cocoa Hyperinflation Accelerates As Grindings Show No Demand Destruction

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Apr 19, 2024 - 07:40 PM


Cocoa hyperinflation is insane. The latest data from the futures market shows that cocoa prices in New York surged above the $12,000 per ton level today as the pace of processing in factories remains robust. This indicates that demand destruction has yet to emerge despite the massive multi-month parabolic price surge.

Cocoa futures surged 18% in the last two days to a record high of $12,125. Prices are up more than 190% year-to-date and are in breakout territory.

Bloomberg says the news today about grindings—where cocoa transforms into butter and powder used in candy—only dropped 2% in Europe and marginally lower in Asia for the first quarter compared with the same quarter one year ago.
Source: Bloomberg

John Goodwin, a senior commodity analyst at ArrowStream, said the grindings numbers are "nowhere near the deterioration we needed to end this rally," adding, "It's crazy how resilient those numbers were."

In other words, despite cocoa prices skyrocketing to the moon, there has yet to be noticeable demand destruction among consumers that would derail this rally.

"The market is watching processing data to get an idea of whether the rally is starting to hurt demand and how hard it's becoming for chocolatiers to obtain beans, though the data risks becoming a less reliable gauge of demand as shortfalls make it more difficult to source cocoa," Bloomberg pointed out.

Paul Joules, an analyst at Rabobank, wrote in a note that grindings figures are "an indication that for now demand is holding up despite current pricing," adding that "demand destruction will come, but clearly it's taking longer to filter into grind data than the market was anticipating."

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that famed commodity trader Pierre Andurand opened a "small, long position" in cocoa futures in early March. Since then, prices have erupted. In an email, he told the media outlet that his price target is "$20,000 later this year" amid worsening continued drought and disease across West Africa, denting production at cocoa farms.

If cocoa prices rise, chocolate makers like the US Hershey Company will see demand destruction. However, this has yet to happen, and consumers are not complaining about higher prices (yet).

On Google Search, we looked at various key phrases a consumer would ask online about why prices were rising. Still, there is no search trend explosion.

However, as cocoa prices soar, the number of headlines about "chocolate prices" has hit a record high.

Perhaps Andurand's $20,000 price target is correct. Still, we have no idea where the price must go before demand destruction strikes.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cocoa-hyperinflation-accelerates-grindings-show-no-demand-destruction

[I. I. Kaspov]

Café...


«Beber café vai tornar-se um luxo. Preços sobem a galope

ZAP

5 Agosto, 2024
5 Agosto, 2024

Natham Dumlao / Unsplash

As colheitas mais baixas e uma nova legislação europeia são dois dos principais fatores que estão a levar a um aumento do preço do café, que será em breve notado pelos consumidores.

Os preços do café têm registado um aumento significativo, uma tendência que se manteve em 2024, após um ano de ganhos notáveis em 2023. Em Londres, a variedade robusta valorizou 62,9%, enquanto a arábica em Nova Iorque subiu 12,5%. Este ano, os aumentos são de 38,05% para o robusta e 21,22% para o arábica.

Vários fatores estão a impulsionar esta escalada de preços, com destaque para os elevados custos de produção. As alterações climáticas têm levado a períodos de seca prolongada, afetando negativamente as colheitas, o que se reflete nos preços finais do café, escreve o Jornal de Negócios.

Dados do Eurostat revelam que, na União Europeia, o aumento dos preços do café foi menor em março deste ano (+1%) comparado ao mesmo período do ano anterior (+13,5%). No entanto, em 15 países da UE, incluindo Portugal, os preços continuaram a subir, com Portugal a registar um aumento de 3%.
Ler também:

    Porque o café está mais caro em Portugal?
    Combustíveis: maior subida da gasolina em oito meses

Os produtores e distribuidores portugueses têm enfrentado dificuldades em não repassar esses aumentos aos consumidores. A tendência de subida dos preços deverá em breve refletir-se nos preços de venda ao público, afetando todas as formas de café, desde a tradicional bica até ao café para consumo doméstico.

As condições climáticas adversas, especialmente no Brasil e no Vietname, têm ainda reduzido a oferta global de café, resultando em níveis de stocks historicamente baixos. A Organização Internacional do Café reportou em julho que o preço indicador composto atingiu máximos de 13 anos.

Uma nova legislação, em vigor desde dezembro de 2023, tem impactado os stocks nos armazéns cotados na Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Esta legislação impede práticas anteriores de “recertificação” do café para evitar penalizações por antiguidade, resultando numa redução significativa dos inventários.

Além disso, novas regras da União Europeia sobre desflorestação podem afetar as exportações de café para o bloco. A necessidade de mapeamento digital dos terrenos de produção imposta pela nova legislação será difícil de cumprir em países como Brasil, Vietname, Indonésia e Colômbia, devido à falta de capital e especialização técnica, o que poderá agravar ainda mais a subida dos preços.

ZAP //»


https://zap.aeiou.pt/beber-cafe-luxo-precos-sobem-galope-618838

[I. I. Kaspov]

«Cocoa Prices Rise As US Stockpiles In Exchange-Monitored Warehouses Hit Four-Year Low

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Aug 08, 2024 - 07:45 AM


Cocoa futures in New York remain range-bound within a symmetrical triangle pattern after peaking near $12,000 a ton in mid-April, finding support around $7,000. Futures are rising this morning as traders are concerned about dwindling stockpiles in US warehouses.

New data from ICE exchange-monitored warehouses shows US cocoa stockpiles have slumped to the lowest levels since December 2019. Given the global tightening of cocoa supplies theme, the bags held in US warehouse could extend declines in the coming weeks and or months.

    The most-active contract rose as much as 5.6% in New York. Inventories of cocoa beans held in the US have fallen to the lowest in more than four years as tightness in the market force grinders to draw down inventories in exchange-monitored warehouses. -Bloomberg

Bloomberg noted that even though the "cocoa market is expected to flip to a surplus in the 2024-25 season," there is still increasing concern among commercial users that shortages will persist due to West Africa's previous poor harvests, adding, "Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast are still lagging behind the prior season by more than a quarter, the latest data shows."
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Higher cocoa costs are continuing to be passed along to cash-strapped consumers.

The iconic US chocolate maker Hershey reported last week that it slashed its sales and earnings outlook for the year as shoppers reduced purchases of higher-priced chocolates and candies. In other words, demand destruction is emerging.

Nothing to see here.

Besides consumer demand destruction fears, cocoa prices have been weighed down by expectations of better harvests in West Africa. Prices are still 116% higher than at the start of the year.

Despite these price swings, oil trader Pierre Andurand remains bullish on the view that the stocks-to-grinding ratio for the world at the end of the year will be at its lowest ever "and potentially run out of inventories late in the year."»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cocoa-prices-rise-us-stockpiles-exchange-monitored-warehouses-hit-four-year-low