Rússia - Tópico principal

[Pedro]

A Europa de leste tem problemas étnicos desde o colapso dos grandes impérios russo, alemão, otomano e austro-húngaro após a I Guerra Mundial.
Existem imensas etnias e problemas dentro das fronteiras atuais mesmo em países que já fazem parte da UE e da Nato e que felizmente a maioria dos portugueses nem faz ideia.

[Incognitus]

Pensem na coisa assim - se esses acontecimentos não tivessem ocorrido a oportunidade em alguns activos Russos poderia não existir neste momento.

[Zel]

Pensem na coisa assim - se esses acontecimentos não tivessem ocorrido a oportunidade em alguns activos Russos poderia não existir neste momento.

essa eh a atitude correcta

[Moppie85]

Pensem na coisa assim - se esses acontecimentos não tivessem ocorrido a oportunidade em alguns activos Russos poderia não existir neste momento.

estás investido na dita cuja?

[Incognitus]

Pensem na coisa assim - se esses acontecimentos não tivessem ocorrido a oportunidade em alguns activos Russos poderia não existir neste momento.

estás investido na dita cuja?

Tenho um papel Russo comprado recentemente: MBT

[Pedro]

Se o petróleo subir nos próximos meses e forem levantadas as sanções em Julho, o mercado russo está uma pechincha, não só pelos ativos como pelo câmbio.

[Europeu]

um presidente que gosta de ideias socialistas e comunistas...

""Elas me agradavam muito e seguem me agradando as ideias comunistas e socialistas."

http://exame.abril.com.br/mundo/noticias/putin-compara-comunismo-com-a-biblia-e-critica-lenin

[Pedro]

um presidente que gosta de ideias socialistas e comunistas...

""Elas me agradavam muito e seguem me agradando as ideias comunistas e socialistas."

http://exame.abril.com.br/mundo/noticias/putin-compara-comunismo-com-a-biblia-e-critica-lenin

O que vale é que em Portugal ninguém gosta!

[D. Antunes]

Na minha opinião o Rublo está desvalorizado demais. A Rússia mantém um saldo comercial positivo não obstante a implosão do petróleo e comparações em termos de purchasing power parity mostram uma desvalorização absurda.

Depois há ainda acontecimentos como os de hoje ... 

Ruble, You Can't Make This Stuff Up
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3824196-ruble-make-stuff

Curiosamente, o economist tem opinião contrária:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/02/still-pricey

Eu costumo valorizar as contas externas, que estão positivas. Se conseguirem controlar a fuga de capitais, o rublo até se pode aguentar (isto é, desvalorizar menos do que a inflação). De qualquer modo, as ações estão extremamente desvalorizadas e, existindo hipóteses de o rublo não se comportar muito mal, ainda ficam mais apetecíveis.

[Incognitus]

A MBT, que é a que escolhi na Rússia, já subiu >30%.

[Elder]

A MBT, que é a que escolhi na Rússia, já subiu >30%.

Inc., com a desvalorização do RBL, o DY da MBT não é muito mais baixo (uma vez que o dividendo é pago em rublos)?

[Incognitus]

A MBT, que é a que escolhi na Rússia, já subiu >30%.

Inc., com a desvalorização do RBL, o DY da MBT não é muito mais baixo (uma vez que o dividendo é pago em rublos)?

A MBT pode baixar o dividendo -- mas quando eu fiz as contas, usei um Rublo similar ao que existe hoje.

[Visitante]

A MBT, que é a que escolhi na Rússia, já subiu >30%.

Inc., com a desvalorização do RBL, o DY da MBT não é muito mais baixo (uma vez que o dividendo é pago em rublos)?

A MBT pode baixar o dividendo -- mas quando eu fiz as contas, usei um Rublo similar ao que existe hoje.

Julgo também que o Rublo está a fazer um topo de longo prazo. Agora, reparei que para o ADR o dividendo previsto para JUL 2016 aparece em dólares, $0,6xx. Não sei como são feitas essas contas, será que convertem o valor em rublos à cotação corrente ??

[Incognitus]

A MBT, que é a que escolhi na Rússia, já subiu >30%.

Inc., com a desvalorização do RBL, o DY da MBT não é muito mais baixo (uma vez que o dividendo é pago em rublos)?

A MBT pode baixar o dividendo -- mas quando eu fiz as contas, usei um Rublo similar ao que existe hoje.

Julgo também que o Rublo está a fazer um topo de longo prazo. Agora, reparei que para o ADR o dividendo previsto para JUL 2016 aparece em dólares, $0,6xx. Não sei como são feitas essas contas, será que convertem o valor em rublos à cotação corrente ??

Quando o dividendo for anunciado será em Rublos. O que pagarão em USD vai depender do câmbio do rublo próximo do momento do pagamento.

[5555]

The risk of an unintended war with Russia in Europe, explained in one map

Updated on February 9, 2016, 11:00 a.m. @vox.com 

   Russia's aggression in Europe — its invasion of Ukraine, its military flights up the noses of NATO states, its nuclear saber rattling — has faded from the news. But it's still very much a threat, which is why the US is planning to quadruple its military spending in Europe, something NATO's European members have welcomed, to deter Russia.

In other words, the dynamics that brought Cold War–style military tension to Europe in 2015 are still with us. And that tension can be dangerous.

This summer, I wrote about a small but alarmed community of analysts and experts in the US, Europe, and Russia who earnestly worried that the risk of an unintended war had grown unacceptably high. A survey of 100 policy experts yielded an aggregate assessment of 11 percent odds of war and 18 percent odds that such a war would include nuclear weapons. (A subsequent, larger survey backed this up.)

Since then, my informal check-ins with my sources have led me to believe that this concern has not dissipated. And, in late January, scholars with the Zurich-based Center for Security Studies produced a map, as part of a longer report that you can read here, that helps show why this is still a real issue:

  The map shows military exercises held by Russia and by NATO in 2014 and 2015. Each circle represents an exercise, and the larger circles mean more troops participated.

Obviously, both Russia and European states have been holding military exercises since before tensions spiked last year. And that's exactly the point: Military volatility is baked into Eastern Europe, such that when tensions do spike it has the capability to make the continent suddenly much more precarious.

I want to call your attention to the Baltic Sea, the body of water tucked between Sweden and the NATO-allied Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. (Recall that all NATO members, including the US, have pledged to go to war to defend any other NATO member that is attacked.) That little region is the focus of all this.

The geography of the Baltics make it enormously insecure for both Russia and for NATO, and this is why nearly every expert I spoke to warned that it is a potential tinderbox, where some unforeseen accident, miscalculation, or provocation could, in an unlikely but real worst-case scenario, send both sides careening into a conflict that neither wants.

The Kaliningrad problem

Look at the little red spot sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania: That's a part of Russia called Kaliningrad, which Russia took over after World War II. Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, partly because Russia uses it as a base for projecting power and partly because Moscow's conspiratorial-minded leaders fear that Europe is bent on retaking Kaliningrad.

Russia worries that in the case of any conflict small or large, Europe and the US would exploit it as an excuse to seize and pacify Kaliningrad. (If that sounds crazy to you, it doesn't to Russian leaders, who after all just seized and annexed part of a foreign country, and who earnestly believe the US is bent on Russia's destruction.) So it has built up Kaliningrad's defenses.

But Kaliningrad is completely isolated from the rest of Russia; it's surrounded by NATO states. And after Ukraine, NATO began putting a lot more troops and tanks in those NATO states. This was meant to defend the Baltics from a possible Ukraine-style provocation, but it also ended up cutting off Kaliningrad even more. There's other stuff happening as well — for example, the Baltics are moving onto a separate power grid, which could make Kaliningrad more reliant on Europe to power itself.

Russia clearly feels it needs a plan to defend Kaliningrad in the case of a conflict. So it's done two things, which are likely meant as defensive but also have offensive capability — hence their destabilizing danger.

First, Russia has installed a kind of weapon that it's been very good lately at developing: area-denial weapons, such as anti-air missiles, that give Russia the ability to shut down an entire region and prevent NATO from moving in. These are indicated on the map with blue-line circles around Kaliningrad.

Second, Russia has conducted exercises near the Baltics that look at least potentially like they're designed to, if necessary, open a ground corridor from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad. This includes, for example, Russian military flights across or into Baltic airspace, which appear meant to test NATO response times.

The idea would be to prevent NATO from overrunning or isolating Kaliningrad by opening basically a giant military highway to it. But that would mean cutting through the Baltic states that separate them. In other words, it would mean invading them.

The Baltics problem

The dynamic here is that even if Russia's agenda here is purely a worst-case-scenario defensive plan to protect Kaliningrad, it also looks exactly like a plan to invade and seize the Baltic states. As NATO sees Russia building up around the Baltics, it is doing the same.

It's not that US and European leaders think Moscow is going to just up and occupy Latvia out of the blue. Rather, they are in the same situation as Russia is with Kaliningrad: The Baltic states are insecure in ways that require NATO to build them up, and this looks offensive to Russia.

The Baltic states are physically isolated from the rest of Europe. Baltic militaries are very weak compared with Russia's much larger force. And Baltic leaders are convinced, not without reason, that Moscow has designs to launch some sort of Ukraine-style hybrid quasi-war against them — not an all-out invasion, but some sort of potentially violent meddling.

This is why the US has been conducting military exercises in the Baltics and part of why it is quadrupling military investment in Europe: to build up the Baltics as a deterrent against Russia. But the effect of this buildup is to further isolate Kaliningrad, potentially increasing Moscow's paranoia and helping to motivate its own buildup, and so on.

The Eastern Europe security dilemma and the potential for war

These Baltics dynamics are, taken together, a classic example of what political scientists call a security dilemma, in which each side feels insecure and builds up to reach parity, which prompts the other side to do the same.

Because neither side can know the other's intentions for sure, defensive measures are seen as at least potentially offensive, and buildups lead to buildups, which can lead to war.

This is especially dangerous in Eastern Europe because both sides are developing not just stronger but faster military measures, such as air-launched cruise missiles, meant to fight and win any conflict as quickly as possible. This drastically reduces response time, meaning that in case of some provocation or accident that could be misread as something bigger, both sides could have only minutes to decide whether to escalate or deescalate.

The scenarios that could lead to war are discussed in greater depth here. But an accident or misstep is not impossible, given that Russian military jets are already flying in or near NATO airspace with some regularity.

And, yes, this is made all the more dangerous by the presence of nuclear weapons — particularly given Russia's development of small-scale "battlefield" or "tactical" nuclear weapons, and its nuclear doctrine that sets a lower bar for launching warheads than does America's.

To be clear, it is not remotely the case that war is likely. Russian and NATO leaders all want very badly to avoid war, and this is by far the most determinative factor in whether war happens. But this map helps to illustrate how this possibility, while remote, is not unthinkable, either. That, after all, is why the buildup is happening to begin with.

[5555]

Rússia adverte para guerra mundial caso avance ofensiva terrestre contra a Síria

O primeiro-ministro russo, Dmitri Medvedev, adverte, em entrevista à revista alemã Handelsblatt, a divulgar sexta-feira, que uma ofensiva terrestre estrangeira contra a Síria apresenta risco de desencadear uma "guerra mundial".

texto integral: http://diariodigital.sapo.pt/news.asp?id_news=811362

[Plasx]

http://observer.com/2016/02/mounting-evidence-putin-will-ignite-wwiii/ 

Mounting Evidence Putin Will Ignite WWIII
By letting Putin get away with whatever he likes in Syria, Obama has created a deeply dangerous situation

[Plasx]

Turcos "re"começaram a bombardear posiçoes Curdas YPG no Norte da Siria ...possivel confronto com Russos/Iranianos cada vez mais plausivel visto que os Turcos devem invadir o Norte da Siria, possivelmente territorio onde o ISIS está presente.

Obs: Preço do Oil deve levar uma esticada para cima já amanha

[Kin2010]

http://observer.com/2016/02/mounting-evidence-putin-will-ignite-wwiii/ 

Mounting Evidence Putin Will Ignite WWIII
By letting Putin get away with whatever he likes in Syria, Obama has created a deeply dangerous situation

Nota o bias anti-russo do artigo. Então os turcos é que estão quase a invadir um território que pode dar guerra mundial, e os russos é que estariam a fazer a "ignição" da mesma? Vamos supor que o território sírio pode dar origem a guerra mundial por ter várias grandes potências lá envolvidas (duvido que aconteça). A culpa pode ser assacada a vários dos players que lá estão, por ex, à Nato, à Turquia, à França, aos EUA, que estavam já a dar apoio militar aos grupos anti-Assad antes de a Rússia ter começado esta intervenção pró-Assad.

[Plasx]

Sim, mas a Russia tem se posto a jeito. O que fizeram na Ucrania nao é aceitavel, comparavel ao que o Hitler fez com a Checoslovaquia.

A culpa do que aconteceu e está a acontecer na Siria tem um nome : Assad. Quando um ditadorzeco responde a Manifs com balas e tanques, a 1ª coisa afazer é bombardear o palacio onde ele se "esconde".

A situaçao na Siria está prestes a ficar fora de control, basta o YPG tomar as localidades de Azaz ou Tall Rifaat para a Turquia iniciar a invasao.

Boa oportunidade para estar longo no Oil no curto prazo, a meu ver.