Olá, Visitante. Por favor entre ou registe-se se ainda não for membro.

Entrar com nome de utilizador, password e duração da sessão
 

Autor Tópico: Krugman et al  (Lida 605855 vezes)

Zel

  • Visitante
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2680 em: 2015-12-07 13:27:42 »
http://yournewswire.com/top-scientist-resigns-admitting-global-warming-is-a-big-scam/
Top Scientist Resigns Admitting Global Warming Is A Big Scam


esse é um dos tais links que nem sequer vou ver...
propaganda e bullshiting no seu pior...

H


propaganda porque? eh apenas a carta de demissao de um cientista duma univ prestigiada

Haroun Al Poussah

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Mensagens: 365
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2681 em: 2015-12-07 13:29:25 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H
Il faut entendre la macro, mon bon Iznogoud
---------------------------------------------------
it's at the point now where if u want ur mass shooting to have media coverage u have to hope there isn't another mass shooting that day
chuuch ‏@ch000ch
-----------------------------------------
The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.
CantDoIt ‏@CantDoIt

Zel

  • Visitante
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2682 em: 2015-12-07 13:32:29 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

o ponto ali eh que esta tudo cheio de propaganda, nao achas comico?
nao sejas tao defensivo, os 200 milhoes do al gore foram uma golpada de mestre
se eh irrelevante tens de avisar o al gore, ele nao sabe
« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 13:33:41 por Camarada Neo-Liberal »

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2683 em: 2015-12-07 13:34:08 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

Lark, a tua mente deixa entrar que o Antártico está ainda mais obviamente em recordes do que o Ártico?
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Haroun Al Poussah

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Mensagens: 365
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2684 em: 2015-12-07 13:35:17 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

o ponto ali eh que esta tudo cheio de propaganda, nao achas comico?
nao sejas tao defensivo, os 200 milhoes do al gore foram uma golpada de mestre
se eh irrelevante tens de avisar o al gore, ele nao sabe

diz-me só uma coisa: se daqui a um par de anos uma placa de gelo do tamanho da madeira deslizar da gronelândia para o atlântico e interromper a circulação termohalina, o que é que vais dizer aqui no forum? e aos teus filhos?

H
Il faut entendre la macro, mon bon Iznogoud
---------------------------------------------------
it's at the point now where if u want ur mass shooting to have media coverage u have to hope there isn't another mass shooting that day
chuuch ‏@ch000ch
-----------------------------------------
The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.
CantDoIt ‏@CantDoIt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2685 em: 2015-12-07 13:35:58 »
http://yournewswire.com/top-scientist-resigns-admitting-global-warming-is-a-big-scam/
Top Scientist Resigns Admitting Global Warming Is A Big Scam


esse é um dos tais links que nem sequer vou ver...
propaganda e bullshiting no seu pior...

H


Nota para ti próprio: essa é a  tua reacção sempre que pensas que um pedaço de dados ou algum facto vai interferir com os teus beliefs.

Aliás, a cena do Antártico já está a ser impressionante, porque é como se não a lesses  e continuasses "Ártico irrelevante ... Ártico irrelevante ..."
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2686 em: 2015-12-07 13:36:47 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

o ponto ali eh que esta tudo cheio de propaganda, nao achas comico?
nao sejas tao defensivo, os 200 milhoes do al gore foram uma golpada de mestre
se eh irrelevante tens de avisar o al gore, ele nao sabe

diz-me só uma coisa: se daqui a um par de anos uma placa de gelo do tamanho da madeira deslizar da gronelândia para o atlântico e interromper a circulação termohalina, o que é que vais dizer aqui no forum? e aos teus filhos?

H

Talvez lhes diga que o clima na Terra está a mudar há milhões e milhões de anos, uma parte da mudança é cíclica, e esse género de eventos acontece regularmente durante a história.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Zel

  • Visitante
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2687 em: 2015-12-07 13:39:49 »
ja varias civilizacoes desapareceram devido a mudancas climaticas, por exemplo na america do sul

mesmo o iraque era verdinho na altura da sumeria, hoje em dia seria culpa do co2

Zel

  • Visitante
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2688 em: 2015-12-07 13:41:04 »
o lark esta a ser vitima duma coisa chamada medo irracional

ha um bom topico neste forum para ele ler  :D

Haroun Al Poussah

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Mensagens: 365
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2689 em: 2015-12-07 13:41:58 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

Lark, a tua mente deixa entrar que o Antártico está ainda mais obviamente em recordes do que o Ártico?

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses
Antarctic Peninsula

A new NASA study says that Antarctica is overall accumulating ice. Still, areas of the continent, like the Antarctic Peninsula photographed above, have increased their mass loss in the last decades.

A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed   to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.

“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.”  Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”

Scientists calculate how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters. In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years -- I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”

The study analyzed changes in the surface height of the Antarctic ice sheet measured by radar altimeters on two European Space Agency European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, spanning from 1992 to 2001, and by the laser altimeter on NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) from 2003 to 2008.

Zwally said that while other scientists have assumed that the gains in elevation seen in East Antarctica are due to recent increases in snow accumulation, his team used meteorological data beginning in 1979 to show that the snowfall in East Antarctica actually decreased by 11 billion tons per year during both the ERS and ICESat periods. They also used information on snow accumulation for tens of thousands of years, derived by other scientists from ice cores, to conclude that East Antarctica has been thickening for a very long time.

“At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet,” Zwally said.

The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet and compacting into solid ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7 centimeters) per year. This small thickening, sustained over thousands of years and spread over the vast expanse of these sectors of Antarctica, corresponds to a very large gain of ice – enough to outweigh the losses from fast-flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent and reduce global sea level rise. 

Zwally’s team calculated that the mass gain from the thickening of East Antarctica remained steady from 1992 to 2008 at 200 billion tons per year, while the ice losses from the coastal regions of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 65 billion tons per year.

“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”

“The new study highlights the difficulties of measuring the small changes in ice height happening in East Antarctica,” said Ben Smith, a glaciologist with the University of Washington in Seattle who was not involved in Zwally’s study.

"Doing altimetry accurately for very large areas is extraordinarily difficult, and there are measurements of snow accumulation that need to be done independently to understand what’s happening in these places,” Smith said.

To help accurately measure changes in Antarctica, NASA is developing the successor to the ICESat mission, ICESat-2, which is scheduled to launch in 2018. “ICESat-2 will measure changes in the ice sheet within the thickness of a No. 2 pencil,” said Tom Neumann, a glaciologist at Goddard and deputy project scientist for ICESat-2. “It will contribute to solving the problem of Antarctica’s mass balance by providing a long-term record of elevation changes.”

H

Inc, outra frase dessas (a tua mente deixa entrar...)  e deixo de te responder.  e de te ler.

« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 13:43:25 por Haroun Al Poussah »
Il faut entendre la macro, mon bon Iznogoud
---------------------------------------------------
it's at the point now where if u want ur mass shooting to have media coverage u have to hope there isn't another mass shooting that day
chuuch ‏@ch000ch
-----------------------------------------
The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.
CantDoIt ‏@CantDoIt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2690 em: 2015-12-07 13:42:49 »
Melt extent in Greenland was above average in 2015, ranking 11th highest in the 37 year record from satellite data. Overall, climate patterns favored intense melting in the north and northwestern parts of the ice sheet, and relatively cool conditions in the southeast.

Surface melt extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet in 2015 was greater than average in northwestern and northern Greenland, and average to below-average levels along the western and southeast coast. The main features of the 2015 season were a slow start, with cool conditions in central and southeastern Greenland in June, a surge in melting in late June and all of July as very warm conditions prevailed along the far northern and northwestern coast, and an average August pattern, with a late surge of southeastern melting at the end of the month extending into early September. At the peak in early July, over 50% of the ice sheet experienced surface melting.

Weather conditions averaged over the summer months of June, July, and August (compared to 1981 to 2010 averages for the same months) revealed a higher-than-average pressure over the island again, as has been the case for several recent summers. For 2015 the pressures were most above average along the northern Greenland coast and across to Ellesmere Island. This was also an area of above-average temperatures, up to 2° Celsius (4° Fahrenheit) higher than usual, and was the site of the most frequent melting this year as well. However, much cooler conditions prevailed in central Greenland and along the southeast coast (approximately 1° Celsius, or 2° Fahrenheit, below average), consistent with the lower-than-average melt extent in this area. The most significant weather period was the warm spell during late June and most of July, when southerly winds along the western coast drove temperatures up to 4° Celsius (7° Fahrenheit) above average near Thule in northwestern Greenland.

The 2015 total summer melt extent area (the sum of the area of surface melt for each day for June, July, and August) was the 11th largest in the period 1978 to 2015. While higher than the 37-year average, 2015 was fairly typical for the past decade’s summers in Greenland. Comparing the seasonal progression of the four most recent years, the recent tendency for greater-than-average melt extent is apparent. This plot also shows the rapid increase in total melt area seen in July, increasing at a rate similar to the record melt year 2012. Greenland’s 2015 melt extent area total was approximately 85,000 square kilometers (32,800 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average.

The reflectivity of Greenland’s ice sheet surface (bare ice, dry or wet snow, and in some areas wet snow and ice with dust, soot, and embedded microbes), when compared to a reference average of 2000 to 2009, tells us additional details about the 2015 melt season. The season began with cool, dry, snowy conditions (average to brighter-than-average surface) along the southwest and eastern coast in mid-June, and then developed widespread surface melting along the western and northwestern coast (7.5 to 15% darker than average) by the end of June. Melting and exposure of soot and dust on the surface peaked in the first half of July along the entire northwest and northern coastline extending well into the ice sheet (widespread areas of 15% below-average reflectivity) and then stopped relatively abruptly around July 20 to 25th as fresh snow fell over much of the island (raising the brightness of the surface to near-average levels). At the end of August, there was a brief warm spell, and the surface darkened along the southeastern coast for a short period.

Using a model (MAR) of the Greenland Ice Sheet climate that is driven by a retrospective reanalysis of weather conditions (NCEP-NCAR v1), a record of the total precipitation and melt runoff can be generated for the past 67 years. While not perfectly accurate, it gives a good overview of the trends of snowfall, and melting, for the island. The difference between the two represents the surface mass balance for the ice sheet (mass that is deposited by snow accumulation minus the mass that flows away as water runoff). This is called the surface mass balance in glaciology, because it does not include the component that flows away as glacier ice. The analysis shows that snowfall has changed very little over the past several decades, but surface melting and runoff tended to increase beginning about fifteen to twenty years ago, resulting in some reduction in the net amount of snow left on Greenland to contribute to glacier flow. The summer of 2015 had only slightly greater meltwater runoff than average, and near-normal snowfall totals.

A recent study of change in the extent of melting in western Greenland, and its potential effects on glacier ice flow, shows that loss of ice by surface melting has climbed uphill on the Greenland ice sheet in recent decades. When water drains through the ice sheet and lifts part of the ice off the bedrock, it can cause the ice to flow faster. If this process were to expand uphill into new areas of the ice sheet, it could significantly affect the ice flow. However, a key step is that the water requires a pathway, usually a crevasse, to reach the base of the ice. The study suggests that at elevations above 1,600 meters (5,200 feet), there are very few crevasses, and the stress on the ice is too low to generate many new crevasses. This argues that a runaway process earlier thought to be a key part of eventual major losses of Greenland’s ice sheet is probably not as severe as once thought.

ver com gráficos aqui


O derretimento de 2015 pode ter sido dos mais rápidos, mas a recuperação subsequente também foi, colocando esse gelo próximo de máximos para 10-15 anos.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2691 em: 2015-12-07 13:43:50 »
muito comico, vender meducho da muito dinheiro

não aprendes...
isso é o ártico que é irrelevante para esta questão
nem te preocupaste em ir ver o que era.

a tua preocupação é a propaganda.

H

Lark, a tua mente deixa entrar que o Antártico está ainda mais obviamente em recordes do que o Ártico?

NASA Study: Mass Gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet Greater than Losses
Antarctic Peninsula
A new NASA study says that Antarctica is overall accumulating ice. Still, areas of the continent, like the Antarctic Peninsula photographed above, have increased their mass loss in the last decades.
Credits: NASA's Operation IceBridge
Map showing the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica.
Map showing the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica. Sums are for all of Antarctica: East Antarctica (EA, 2-17); interior West Antarctica (WA2, 1, 18, 19, and 23); coastal West Antarctica (WA1, 20-21); and the Antarctic Peninsula (24-27). A gigaton (Gt) corresponds to a billion metric tons, or 1.1 billion U.S. tons.
Credits: Jay Zwally/ Journal of Glaciology
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed   to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.

“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica – there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.”  Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.”

Scientists calculate how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters. In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years -- I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”

The study analyzed changes in the surface height of the Antarctic ice sheet measured by radar altimeters on two European Space Agency European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites, spanning from 1992 to 2001, and by the laser altimeter on NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) from 2003 to 2008.

Zwally said that while other scientists have assumed that the gains in elevation seen in East Antarctica are due to recent increases in snow accumulation, his team used meteorological data beginning in 1979 to show that the snowfall in East Antarctica actually decreased by 11 billion tons per year during both the ERS and ICESat periods. They also used information on snow accumulation for tens of thousands of years, derived by other scientists from ice cores, to conclude that East Antarctica has been thickening for a very long time.

“At the end of the last Ice Age, the air became warmer and carried more moisture across the continent, doubling the amount of snow dropped on the ice sheet,” Zwally said.

The extra snowfall that began 10,000 years ago has been slowly accumulating on the ice sheet and compacting into solid ice over millennia, thickening the ice in East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica by an average of 0.7 inches (1.7 centimeters) per year. This small thickening, sustained over thousands of years and spread over the vast expanse of these sectors of Antarctica, corresponds to a very large gain of ice – enough to outweigh the losses from fast-flowing glaciers in other parts of the continent and reduce global sea level rise. 

Zwally’s team calculated that the mass gain from the thickening of East Antarctica remained steady from 1992 to 2008 at 200 billion tons per year, while the ice losses from the coastal regions of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 65 billion tons per year.

“The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away,” Zwally said. “But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for.”

“The new study highlights the difficulties of measuring the small changes in ice height happening in East Antarctica,” said Ben Smith, a glaciologist with the University of Washington in Seattle who was not involved in Zwally’s study.

"Doing altimetry accurately for very large areas is extraordinarily difficult, and there are measurements of snow accumulation that need to be done independently to understand what’s happening in these places,” Smith said.

To help accurately measure changes in Antarctica, NASA is developing the successor to the ICESat mission, ICESat-2, which is scheduled to launch in 2018. “ICESat-2 will measure changes in the ice sheet within the thickness of a No. 2 pencil,” said Tom Neumann, a glaciologist at Goddard and deputy project scientist for ICESat-2. “It will contribute to solving the problem of Antarctica’s mass balance by providing a long-term record of elevation changes.”

H

Inc, outra frase dessas (a tua mente deixa entrar...)  e deixo de te responder.  e de te ler.

Está lido: "A massa do Antártico está a aumentar, mas existem áreas onde diminui". Cherry picking, basta existir variação para existirem áreas onde diminui. O total está a aumentar.

Mais, previsões para daqui a 20-30 anos por parte de modelos que falharam em prever este aumento presente caem no tal problema de que te estou a alertar sobre a ciência da coisa.

---------

Sobre a frase, tu só respondeste alguma coisa depois de algumas 3-4 chamadas de atenção. A frase era legítima. E o que respondeste só confirmou o que te estava a ser dito (o que significa que procuraste algo melhor para a tua posição e não encontraste).
« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 13:47:15 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Zel

  • Visitante
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2692 em: 2015-12-07 13:45:23 »
ejhhe, agora embirram com as variacoes locais !

the money must flow !! al gore needs mo money

Haroun Al Poussah

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Mensagens: 365
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2693 em: 2015-12-07 13:46:28 »
só tenho a dizer uma coisa.
espero do fundo do meu coração que os cientistas estejam todos errados quanto a isto, que o al gore seja um aldrabão e que o inc e o neo tenham imensa razão.

é sinal que a próxima geração ainda tem um planeta aceitável para viver.

infelizmente, acho que nada disso é verdade.

H
« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 13:47:03 por Haroun Al Poussah »
Il faut entendre la macro, mon bon Iznogoud
---------------------------------------------------
it's at the point now where if u want ur mass shooting to have media coverage u have to hope there isn't another mass shooting that day
chuuch ‏@ch000ch
-----------------------------------------
The severity of the itch is inversely proportional to the reach.
CantDoIt ‏@CantDoIt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2694 em: 2015-12-07 13:49:54 »
só tenho a dizer uma coisa.
espero do fundo do meu coração que os cientistas estejam todos errados quanto a isto, que o al gore seja um aldrabão e que o inc e o neo tenham imensa razão.

é sinal que a próxima geração ainda tem um planeta aceitável para viver.

infelizmente, acho que nada disso é verdade.

H

Pois, mas nisto da ciência não devemos deixar que aquilo que achamos determine a nossa opinião. Devemos tentar achar factos. Modelos testados. Aceitar fés não é coisa boa.

Ninguém te está a dizer que o aquecimento global influenciado pelo homem não existe. O homem influencia de certeza. A questão é se a influência ainda assim fará diferença, tendo em conta os mecanismos poderosos em acção. Para tal, são necessários modelos científicos. Como isto não pode ser replicado em laboratório, então tem que ser testado via congelar modelos e verificar se as suas previsões batem certo com a realidade.

Adicionalmente não se podem alterar registos históricos para validar os modelos. Os registos devem permanecer, e se existem ajustamentos a fazer esses devem ser incluídos (e congelados) no modelo a testar, não nos dados históricos.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Zenith

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 5259
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2696 em: 2015-12-07 15:03:34 »
Quando criei o tópico http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,1950.0.html, a questão era avaliar se na ausência de evidências conclusivas de ambos os lados, não se justificava uma abordagem de pior caso.
O problema tem algumas semelhanças com o dos muçulmanos em que há estatisticas para todos os gostos. Algumas pessoas advogam uma politica de prevenção dura num dos casos e de laxismo na outra.
« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 15:06:50 por Zenith »

Deus Menor

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 1972
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2697 em: 2015-12-07 15:05:47 »
Mas ainda alguém tem dúvidas da monstruosa farsa que são o "aquecimento global".

Numa era em que a informação viaja ao segundo, em que a informação poderia ser
garantia para denunciar estes esquemas, é o contrário a contra-informação é lei
e desmentir com a Verdade é uma luta quase ingrata.

"Em tempos de embustes universais, dizer a verdade se torna um ato revolucionário." - In times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.

George Orwell

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2698 em: 2015-12-07 15:06:02 »
Quando criei o tópico http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,1950.0.html, a questão era avaliar se na ausência de evidências conclusivas de ambos os lados, não se justificava uma abordagem de pior caso.
O problema tem algumas semelhanças com o do estado islâmico em que há estatisticas para todos os gostos. Algumas pessoas advogam uma politica de prevenção dura num dos casos e de laxismo na outra.


Uma das coisas tem impacto imediato, a outra nem por sombras. Uma delas é garantida, a outra nem por sombras ...

Além disso numa delas ninguém foi para trás martelar estatísticas já apresentadas para defender o seu ponto, ao passo que na outra ...
« Última modificação: 2015-12-07 15:06:42 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2699 em: 2015-12-07 18:35:30 »
That 30s Show
EmailShareTweet
A few years ago de Bromhead, Eichengreen, and O’Rourke looked at the determinants of right-wing extremism in the 1930s. They found that economic factors mattered a lot; specifically,

what mattered was not the current growth of the economy but cumulative growth or, more to the point, the depth of the cumulative recession. One year of contraction was not enough to significantly boost extremism, in other words, but a depression that persisted for years was.

How’s Europe doing on that basis?



And now the National Front has scored a first-place finish in regional elections, and will probably take a couple of regions in the second round. Economics isn’t the only factor; immigration, refugees, and terrorism play into the mix. But Europe’s underperformance is slowly eroding the legitimacy, not just of the European project, but of the open society itself.

krugman
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt