Olá, Visitante. Por favor entre ou registe-se se ainda não for membro.

Entrar com nome de utilizador, password e duração da sessão
 

Autor Tópico: Helicopter QE will never be reversed  (Lida 5230 vezes)

Kin2010

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 3989
    • Ver Perfil
Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« em: 2013-04-05 01:15:19 »
Helicopter QE will never be reversed

Readers of the Daily Telegraph were right all along. Quantitative easing will never be reversed. It is not liquidity management as claimed so vehemently at the outset. It really is the same as printing money.
 
It would be better for central banks to put the money into railways, bridges, clean energy, smart grids, or whatever does most to regenerate the economy

 By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:49PM BST 03 Apr 2013

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.

"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".

He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.

"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.

Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

The write-off should cover "previous fiscal deficits", the stock of public debt. It should be "post-facto monetary finance".

The policy is elastic, for Lord Turner went on to argue that central banks in the US, Japan and Europe should stand ready to finance current spending as well, if push comes to shove. At least the money would go straight into the veins of the economy, rather than leaking out into asset bubbles.

Today's QE relies on pushing down borrowing costs. It is "creditism". That is a very blunt tool in a deleveraging bust when nobody wants to borrow.

Lord Turner says the current policy has become dangerous, yielding ever less returns, with ever worsening side-effects. It would be better for central banks to put the money into railways, bridges, clean energy, smart grids, or whatever does most to regenerate the economy.

The policy can be "wrapped" in such a way as to preserve central bank independence. The Fed or the Bank of England would decide when enough is enough, or what the proper pace should be, just as they calibrate every tool. That at least is the argument. I merely report it.

Lord Turner knows this breaks the ultimate taboo, and that taboos evolve for sound anthropological reasons, but he invokes the doctrine of the lesser evil. "The danger in this environment is that if we deny ourselves this option, people will find other ways of dealing with deflation, and that would be worse."

A breakdown of the global trading system might be one, armed conquest or Fascism may be others - or all together, as in the 1930s.

There were two extreme episodes of money printing in the inter-war years. The Reichsbank's financing of Weimar deficits from 1922 to 1924 - like lesser variants in France, Belgium and Poland - is well known. The result was hyperinflation. Clever people made hay. The slow-witted - or the patriotic - lost their savings. It was a poisonous dichotomy.

Less known is the spectacular success of Takahashi Korekiyo in Japan in the very different circumstances of the early 1930s. He fired a double-barreled blast of monetary and fiscal stimulus together, helped greatly by a 40pc fall in the yen.

The Bank of Japan was ordered to fund the public works programme of the government. Within two years, Japan was booming again, the first major country to break free of the Great Depression. Within three years, surging tax revenues allowed Mr Korekiyo to balance the budget. It was magic.

This is more or less the essence of "Abenomics", the three-pronged attack on deflation by Japan's new premier and Great Power revivalist Shinzo Abe.

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Partners says Western analysts have been strangely slow to understand the breathtaking scale of what is under way. The Bank of Japan is already committed to bond purchases of $140bn a month in 2014. This is almost double the US Federal Reserve's net purchases (around $75bn a month), and five times as much as a share of GDP.

Prof Woodford and Lord Turner both think the Fed has already begun to monetise America's deficits, though Ben Bernanke has been studiously vague whenever pressed in testimony on Capitol Hill. These are early days. It is tentative and deniable.

The great hope is that this weird episode will soon be behind us, and that such shock therapy will never be needed in the end. If stock markets tell the truth, the world economy is already healing itself. Another full cycle of global growth is safely under way.

But stock markets are a bad barometer at the onset of every crisis, not least the blistering rally of late 1929, a full year after the world economy had tipped into commodity deflation.

The Reuters CRB commodity index has been falling steadily for the past six months. Copper futures have dropped 10pc since mid-February. This is nothing like the early months of the great global boom a decade ago.

The bull case rests on US recovery, a seductive story as the housing market comes back to life and the shale boom revives the US chemical industry.

Yet the US money supply figures are no longer flashing buy signals. The M2 money stock has contracted over the past three months, and M2 velocity has dropped to the lowest ever recorded at 1.54.

The country must navigate a fiscal squeeze worth 2.5pc of GDP over the rest of the year, arguably the biggest fiscal shock in half a century. Five key indicators have been soft over the past week, with the ADP jobs index coming in much weaker than expected on Wednesday. Growth is below the Fed's "stall speed" indicator, an annualized two-quarter rate of 2pc.

The buoyancy over the past quarter has been flattered by a collapse in the US savings rate to pre-Lehman depths of 2.6pc, and while falling saving is what the world needs, it is not what America needs. Thrifty Asians are the people who must spend if we are to right the collosal imbalances in the global system.

The world savings rate is still climbing to fresh records above 25pc. For all the talk of change in China, Beijing is still pursuing a mercantilist policy. It is still flooding the world with excess goods. It is still shoveling cheap credit into its shipbuilding industry, adding to the glut. It is still keeping its solar industry on life-support.

China remains chronically reliant on global markets. Given that its trade surplus is rising again, it is questionable whether China is adding any net demand to the world.

The eurozone, Britain and an ever widening circle of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans are mired in recession. Growth is expected to be just 2pc in Russia and 3pc in Brazil this year.

My fear - hopefully wrong - is that recovery will falter over the second half, leaving the developed world trapped in a quasi-slump, a sort of grey zone of zero growth that goes on and on, with debt trajectories ratcheting up.

The Dallas Fed's PCE index of core inflation has already dropped to 1.1pc over the past six months. The eurozone's core gauge has fallen to 1.5pc. A dozen EMU countries already have one foot in deflation with flat or contracting nominal GDP. Another shock will tip them over the edge into a deflationary slide.

If Lord Turner's helicopters are ever needed, we can be sure that the Anglo-Saxons and the Japanese will steal a march, while Europe will be the last to move. The European Central Bank will resist monetary financing of deficits until the bitter end, knowing that such action risks destroying German political consent for the euro project.

By holding the line on orthodoxy, the ECB will guarantee that Euroland continues to suffer the deepest depression. Once the dirty game begins, you stand aside at your peril.

A great many readers in Britain and the US will be horrified that this helicopter debate is taking place at all, as if the QE virus is mutating into ever more deadly strains.

Bondholders across the world may suspect that Britain, the US and other deadbeat states are engineering a stealth default on sovereign debts, and they may be right in a sense. But they are warned. This is the next shoe to drop in the temples of central banking.

Kin2010

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 3989
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #1 em: 2013-04-05 01:18:41 »
Isto nem de propósito... Há alguns dias eu perguntei se faria sentido os US & UK comprarem a maior parte da sua dívida outstanding com QE, para depois a anular, e assim ficarem com uma baixa dívida novamente... Parecia-me uma ideia estupidamente simples, boa demais para ser correcta. Dias depois, o artigo acima mostra que as melhores mentes estão a pensar isso mesmo e a pensar nisso entusiasticamente! Afinal a ideia estupidamente simples não é assim tão estúpida!


Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #2 em: 2013-04-05 02:10:55 »
Se imprimir dinheiro resolvesse permanentemente problemas, seria uma surpresa demorar-se 2000 ou mais anos a descobri-lo, tendo em conta que imprimir é sempre a solução mais fácil.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #3 em: 2013-04-05 10:30:47 »
quantas vezes é preciso dizer que no contexto de uma armadilha de liquidez, o aumento de massa monetário é benefico para a economia?

saídos da armadilha de liquidez e uma vez que a economia atinja a velocidade de escape da crise, a massa monetária deixará primeiro de aumentar a este ritmo, para depois provavelmente deixar mesmo de aumentar ou até contrair, de forma a evitar crise inflacionárias -  mais que 5/6 % de inflação.

até lá nao será estranho que a inflação venha a ultrapassar o 2% por larga margem.

com a inflação sabemos nós lidar como o Volcker provou na década de 80.

é com a deflação e o desemprego que temos de preocupar.

os EUA já vão saindo da crise, o japão quer decididamente sair da crise e vai fazê-lo a um ritmo ainda superior ao dos EUA.

fica a faltar a europa que há-de acabar a fazer a mesma coisa, espero que não tarde demais.

and that's that!

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #4 em: 2013-04-05 10:33:49 »
Se imprimir dinheiro resolvesse permanentemente problemas, seria uma surpresa demorar-se 2000 ou mais anos a descobri-lo, tendo em conta que imprimir é sempre a solução mais fácil.

há muita coisa que demorou muito mais que 2000 anos a descobrir. e haverá concerteza outras que ainda demorarão mais 2000 anos. qual é a surpresa?
a economia é um dos campos mais complexos que existem. não é de estranhar que só agora se comece a compreender alguns mecanismos dos sistemas económicos.

ah... o só agora é um bocado relativo. nos anos 30 do século passado já se compreendia o que aparentemente se está hoje a voltar a compreender.

mas enfim, lá vamos.

L
« Última modificação: 2013-04-05 10:35:15 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #5 em: 2013-04-05 10:54:01 »
Se imprimir dinheiro resolvesse permanentemente problemas, seria uma surpresa demorar-se 2000 ou mais anos a descobri-lo, tendo em conta que imprimir é sempre a solução mais fácil.

há muita coisa que demorou muito mais que 2000 anos a descobrir. e haverá concerteza outras que ainda demorarão mais 2000 anos. qual é a surpresa?
a economia é um dos campos mais complexos que existem. não é de estranhar que só agora se comece a compreender alguns mecanismos dos sistemas económicos.

ah... o só agora é um bocado relativo. nos anos 30 do século passado já se compreendia o que aparentemente se está hoje a voltar a compreender.

mas enfim, lá vamos.

L

Mas Lark, uma coisa é demorar 2000 anos a fazer algo, outra coisa é passar os 2000 anos a fazer algo e só agora se achar que o algo funciona. Imprimir não é algo que só esteja a ser tentado agora. É algo que até os Romanos faziam ao debasear a moeda tornando-a mais leve, metendo ligas, etc.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #6 em: 2013-04-05 11:00:45 »
Se imprimir dinheiro resolvesse permanentemente problemas, seria uma surpresa demorar-se 2000 ou mais anos a descobri-lo, tendo em conta que imprimir é sempre a solução mais fácil.

há muita coisa que demorou muito mais que 2000 anos a descobrir. e haverá concerteza outras que ainda demorarão mais 2000 anos. qual é a surpresa?
a economia é um dos campos mais complexos que existem. não é de estranhar que só agora se comece a compreender alguns mecanismos dos sistemas económicos.

ah... o só agora é um bocado relativo. nos anos 30 do século passado já se compreendia o que aparentemente se está hoje a voltar a compreender.

mas enfim, lá vamos.

L

Mas Lark, uma coisa é demorar 2000 anos a fazer algo, outra coisa é passar os 2000 anos a fazer algo e só agora se achar que o algo funciona. Imprimir não é algo que só esteja a ser tentado agora. É algo que até os Romanos faziam ao debasear a moeda tornando-a mais leve, metendo ligas, etc.

aconteceram armadilhas de liquidez no tempo do império romano?

esta história da armadilha de liquidez parace algo que é difícil de assimilar.
por mais que se explique, a reacção é sempre a mesma, weimar e tra-lá-lá e blá-blá.
aconteceu há 80 anos e está acontecer agora. e o stat-of-the-art da economia, diz que para sair dela tem que se aumnetar a massa monetária.
é muito difícl de entender isto?
ou é uma questão de atenção selectiva. algo que não está de acordo com os nossos beliefs é ignorado?

L
« Última modificação: 2013-04-05 11:01:06 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #7 em: 2013-04-05 11:03:19 »
Bem, a minha opinião quanto a isso é que para se sair desta posição os grupos que consumiram mais do que produziram têm que inverter essa situação. Medidas que mantenham a capacidade desses grupos de consumir mais do que produzem só adiarão o reequilíbrio e manterão a estagnação (embora "por sorte" isso possa inverter-se ao longo do tempo, ao contrário do que acontece numa crise profunda, em que se inverte por necessidade).
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #8 em: 2013-04-05 11:06:41 »
aliás a história dos ultimos milhares de anos da economia, antes do advento dos bancos centrais,  é uma história de horror. defaults monstruosos, perdão de dívidas, guerras por razões económica,
boom & busts cíclicos etc etc.
não sei o que há a aprender com a história económica senão a não repetir os erros passados.

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #9 em: 2013-04-05 11:20:59 »
Imprimir não é algo que só esteja a ser tentado agora. É algo que até os Romanos faziam ao debasear a moeda tornando-a mais leve, metendo ligas, etc.

os romanos tinha cartões de crédito? bancos de investimento? mercados de divisa? mercados de acções? opções? derivados à la carte?
achas que vale a pena comparar seja o que for com a economia moderna?

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Zel

  • Visitante
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #10 em: 2013-04-05 11:36:13 »
acho que a experiencia japonesa vai esclarecer quem afinal tem razao

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #11 em: 2013-04-05 11:59:16 »
acho que a experiencia japonesa vai esclarecer quem afinal tem razao

nem mais...
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Iced

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 910
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #12 em: 2013-04-05 12:27:21 »
Vai ser um filme interessante de se ver!
A vida para ter interesse,deve ser construida por nos,de forma inteligente!
-devemos criar marcos na nossa vida,que sejam pontos de referencia!
-devemos amar muitas mulheres para sabermos o verdadeiro sentimento do amor!
-devemos combater de acordo com os nossos ideais,lutando e sendo solidarios,em busca de um mumdo melhor!
-devemos fazer aquilo que nos apetece,respeitando as regras socias!
-devemos por vezes ser egoistas,gostar de nos proprios,pois e impossivel dar felicidade a alguem,quando somos infelizes!

POR FIM,DEVEMOS SER GENUINOS!

JAMES

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #13 em: 2013-04-05 13:12:05 »
Imprimir não é algo que só esteja a ser tentado agora. É algo que até os Romanos faziam ao debasear a moeda tornando-a mais leve, metendo ligas, etc.

os romanos tinha cartões de crédito? bancos de investimento? mercados de divisa? mercados de acções? opções? derivados à la carte?
achas que vale a pena comparar seja o que for com a economia moderna?

L

A economia subjacente é grosso modo a mesma. Troca de produções. Alguém que esteja a consumir mais do que produz vai constituindo crédito. A tomada de crédito gera procura que não existiria de outra forma. O parar de tomar crédito termina essa procura e gera uma suposta crise.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

aos_pouquinhos

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 224
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #14 em: 2013-04-05 13:15:40 »
Qual a massa monetária per capita (a nível mundial) que deve existir para não se verificar nem inflação desmesurada, nem deflação atroz, nem desemprego?

Este equilíbrio é impossível de atingir agora, mas daqui a + 2000 anos poderá ser só carregar num botão.

Cumprimentos
A desordem é o melhor servidor da ordem estabelecida. (Jean-Paul Sartre)

Lark

  • Ordem dos Especialistas
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 4627
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #15 em: 2013-04-05 13:16:16 »
Imprimir não é algo que só esteja a ser tentado agora. É algo que até os Romanos faziam ao debasear a moeda tornando-a mais leve, metendo ligas, etc.

os romanos tinha cartões de crédito? bancos de investimento? mercados de divisa? mercados de acções? opções? derivados à la carte?
achas que vale a pena comparar seja o que for com a economia moderna?

L



A economia subjacente é grosso modo a mesma. Troca de produções. Alguém que esteja a consumir mais do que produz vai constituindo crédito. A tomada de crédito gera procura que não existiria de outra forma. O parar de tomar crédito termina essa procura e gera uma suposta crise.

não é nem pouco mais ou menos.
e tu sabes que não é.
pretender que a aconomia do império romano é grosso modo a mesma que a economia actual é rídiculo.
é uma premissa na qual tu te baseias para estender uma tese incompreensível mas é claramente, uma premissa falsa.
nem sequer vale a pena discutir isso.

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #16 em: 2013-04-05 13:18:58 »
Bem, o que tu disseste não conteve argumento nenhum.
 
Eu disse que já na altura a economia grosso modo se baseava na troca de produções, e que quem consumia em excesso do que produzia assumia crédito, que o crédito gerava procura que não existiria de outra forma, e que a cessação da tomada de crédito produziria uma crise similar à que hoje observamos.
 
É claro que sendo os mercados de crédito muito menos desenvolvidos, este ciclo provavelmente teria muito menos influência e ocorreria a níveis de crédito muito mais baixos.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

Incognitus

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 30961
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #17 em: 2013-04-05 13:20:49 »
As ideias-base para se compreenderem estas dinâmicas poder-se-iam simular até numa economia hiper-simples com meia dúzia ou uma dúzia de indivíduos. Não é por estarmos numa economia muito mais complexa do que a existente em Roma que elas deixam de se aplicar.
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

hermes

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Mensagens: 2836
    • Ver Perfil
Re:Helicopter QE will never be reversed
« Responder #18 em: 2013-04-05 23:25:09 »
os romanos tinha cartões de crédito? bancos de investimento? mercados de divisa? mercados de acções? opções? derivados à la carte?
achas que vale a pena comparar seja o que for com a economia moderna?

L


Não digas mal dos romanos que eles não eram assim tão atrazadinhos como tu pensas!  :D

What have the Romans ever done for us?

By Izabella Kaminska
On Dec 13 2012 12:43

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/12/13/1307542/what-have-the-romans-ever-done-for-us/?iframe=true&width=90%&height=90%

So, apart from the roads — which go without saying — the aqueduct, sanitation, irrigation, medicine, education, wine, public baths and public order — what have the Romans ever done for us?

Well, as we pointed out on Wednesday, there is a growing view among some ancient scholars that the Monty Python boys could and should have included credit in that list. And in in a big way, since the Roman economy likely featured a lot more paper money assets than most ancient historians care to admit. (Something a lot of modern-day economists and strategists who like throwing Roman coinage supply charts into their research don’t often explain.)

W.V Harris of Columbia University is probably best known for having made and substantiated the argument. And in my opinion, it’s certainly a very compelling one. Indeed, if you love the whole “what is money?” debate, have read David Graeber’s Debt and are still fascinated by the exogenous/endogenous nature of it all, I really recommend a download of his paper A Revisionist View of Roman Money from 2006, or a read of his 2008 book The Monetary Systems of the Greeks and Romans.

So, having explained why it’s not necessarily fair to blame Roman coinage debasement for third century hyperinflation and the ultimate fall of Rome — which, ironically, was much more likely the result of technological stagnation and political upheaval (and surely anyone who has ever played the computer game Civilization could have told you that) — it’s worth delving a little deeper into how the Roman monetary system really worked, and what it might genuinely teach us about our modern day economy.

So let’s begin with evidence for a credit economy in the first place and the idea that the standard definition of money “pecunia” is much far reaching than many suppose, starting with Republican times.

Harris notes in his 2006 paper that this is fairly easy to establish (our emphasis):

Citar
How did Cicero transfer the 31⁄2 million sesterces he paid for his famous house on the Palatine (Fam. 5.6.2 — this was by no means the largest property price we know of in the classical city of Rome), at a time when Rome had practically no gold coinage? It seems singularly unlikely that his slaves counted out and loaded 31⁄2 tons of silver coins and transported this cargo through the streets of Rome (not that Roman ideas of inconvenience were necessarily the same as ours). When a certain C. Albanius bought an estate from a certain C. Pilius for 111⁄2 million sesterces (Cic., Att. 13.31.4), did he physically send him this sum in silver coins? Without much doubt, these were at least for the most part paper, or rather documentary, transactions (the crucial documents will have been waxed tablets). The commonest procedure for large property purchases in this period was probably the one casually alluded to by Cicero elsewhere: a Roman knight becomes enamoured of a certain property at Syracuse, and ‘nomina facit, negotium conficit’, ‘he provides the credits [or “bonds”], <and so> completes the purchase’ (De off. 3.59).14 This practice is reflected in Cicero’s letters.15 And when in Pro Caecina Aebutius’ bid for a rural property being sold at auction is successful, he concludes the affair by ‘promising money to the argentarius’ (Caec. 16), and about that at least there was nothing in the least irregular: no one denied that the property had really been sold — the only question about the sale was whether Aebutius was acting for someone else. And you might buy in instalments: when Cicero bought out the share of the horti Cluviani that had gone to another legatee (Att. 13.46.3), he did so in three payments spread out over nearly a year (Att. 16.2.1), in effect taking a loan from the seller. None of which is to deny that coins might sometimes play considerable roles in major property transactions (see below).


As for bullion:

Citar
It is frequently imagined that, under the Republic at least, large payments were made in gold bullion, and there was indeed bullion in circulation; but there is no evidence in Cicero’s extensive writings or elsewhere that gold was a regular means of payment before the minting of gold under Caesar’s dictatorship. Expert scholars have sought for evidence that individuals bought things with gold or silver bullion under the Republic, and have found none. Crawford catalogued 335 republican coin hoards for the years 150 to 27 b.c.: exactly two of these 335 can be considered to have had a serious bullion component. And as Andreau points out, the archaeology of the Vesuvian cities, which has produced every imaginable kind of find, has never produced a single ingot of gold or silver. Of course we do have some explicit evidence of gold bullion in private hands under the Republic (Cic., Cluent. 179), but it was apparently a store of wealth, to be exchanged against more spendable assets in times of emergency. ‘Gold’ was what a very rich man such as Rabirius gave to a friend such as Cicero who was scurrying into exile (Rab.Post. 47), his credit shot — letters of credit might not be honoured if presented by a man in Cicero’s position, and coins once again were bulky — but this has nothing to do with ordinary business life. In imperial times, once again, we sometimes find gold bullion in private hands (e.g. Ulpian in Dig. 12.1.11.pr.), but it is implicitly not counted as pecunia, and seldom used in business or property transactions, as far as we know. There was an important exception, which does not invalidate the general conclusion: bullion sometimes had to be used to buy things from across the frontier, the eastern frontier at least: hence it was sometimes on sale at Coptos and Alexandria.


So, what you had for the most part was a wealth system made up of land, property, slaves, loan assets and bullion, for store of value and emergency use only — that is, to be used when your credit was shot or unknown to your counterparty.

But real proof that the traditional understanding of Roman money is mistaken appears according to Harris in 49 BC — when once again civil war disturbed the stability of monetary and credit network. As he notes — and this is highly relevant to today — there was something of a safe asset run:

Citar
Nervous creditors began to seek payment even of the principal ‘in silver’, i.e. silver coin, and one part of Caesar’s reaction was to ‘forbid anyone to hold more than 15,000 drachmas in silver or gold’ (Dio 41.38.1), which would have meant a Maoist revolution — most emphatically not Caesar’s purpose — if gold and silver coins had really been the only form of money. Quite obviously, his purpose was that the rich should lend, which would leave them with negotiable nomina.


As to those who question how Rome could have operated a credit economy without a viable clearing system, Harris says:

Citar
When economists define credit-money, they sometimes, admittedly, make matters more complicated than I have made them in this account, but that is because they quite naturally have recent and current conditions in mind, and not the world that existed before the invention of clearing banks. ‘A credit money system presupposes the existence of the institutions of private property, contracts, enforcement, and clearing’, says one. But historically speaking, as we shall see, the last of these four elements is a wonderful convenience but not in fact a necessity.

In the Roman scheme of things what you paid with was commonly pecunia, though other words such as nummi were also standard. It is therefore quite important that pecunia could have a very wide meaning. Naturally one ought not to press individual texts too hard. Gaius, for instance, remarks that ‘the term pecunia in this law [Sulla’s Lex Cornelia de sponsu, if that was its real name] means everything; and so if we stipulate for wine or wheat or a farm or a slave, this law must be observed’.

——-

In another passage Ulpian claims that ‘the term pecunia includes not only coinage but every kind of money whatsoever, that is, every substance (omnia corpora); for no one doubts that substances are also included in the definition of money’ (Dig. 50.16.178). Clearly it is not Ulpian’s intention here to deny that documents could represent money but simply to assert that such things as wine and wheat could indeed count.

The important point for us in any case is that pecunia could include loans. And in fact Cicero in a published speech simply takes it for granted that nomina were a form of pecunia, that is to say that credit, at least in a certain form, was money (II Verr. 5.17), though in this case rather illiquid money (Verres’ victim had an interest in asserting that he could not pay because his assets were mainly in nomina). For Tacitus, it is reasonably clear that pecunia included credit.56 Hermogenianus ought really to have said that pecunia could include objects and legal claims, on certain conditions; but he was certainly not expressing an extreme or eccentric opinion — Justinian’s lawyers chose just these two definitions of money, Ulpian’s and Hermogenianus’, and no others.


Then comes the question of safe assets and investable loans. Harris notes that whilst temples and cities where known to provide loans, on the whole the Roman credit market was based on credit and debt transactions between private individuals:

Citar
But these [city and temple loans] are probably minor phenomena, whereas debt was in fact the life-blood of the Roman economy, at all levels. The normality of nomina (i.e. outstanding loans) among the assets of the rentier class has already been commented on: nomina were a completely standard part of the lives of people of property, as well as being an everyday fact of life for great numbers of others. Nothing could be further from the truth than a scholar’s contention that it was only under extraordinary circumstances that the creation of credit-money took place. In a modern economy the standard cautious investment for the well-to-do is, or at least used to be, government bonds; in the virtual absence of bonds, governmental or otherwise, the Roman well-to-do relied heavily on nomina. Describing the credit crisis of a.d. 33, Tacitus (Ann. 6.16.3) remarks that all senators were more extensively involved in money-lending than the law allowed (‘neque enim quisquam tali culpa vacuus’). We know that by the late Republic virtually every aristocrat whose affairs are attested in the sources lent money, and it was normal for the less illustrious senators to do so too. Augustus was evidently regarded as something of a stickler for having tried to keep the equites up to old-fashioned aristocratic standards by punishing those among them who borrowed money at lower rates of interest in order to lend it at higher ones (Suet. 39).


And as Harris says, there’s no reason why this pattern of lending should have changed much under the Empire. A point emphasized by the fact that Roman statutes reference practices and procedures for dealing with loan recoveries.

And it was in this context that early banks came into being, catering as much to the elite as to the lower classes, according to Harris.

In fact, during the credit crisis of 33 AD, banks were used by the Emperor — very much like today — as a transmission tool for newly created credit:

Citar
…the credit crisis of a.d. 33 concerned initially and above all senators, and when Tiberius decided to rescue the credit market, he did so by providing 100 million sesterces of loans, not directly, however, but through mensae (Tac., Ann. 6.17.3), which are not, as many interpreters have claimed, ‘specially established’ or ‘temporary’ banks (nothing of that in the sources), but just ‘banks’.


What’s more large portions of the debt and credit market were transferable in their own right — thus in some capacity money-like:

Citar
In Section i we saw a fair amount of evidence for non-coinage payments of sums large and not-so-large. Nomina were transferable, and by the second century b.c., if not earlier, were routinely used as a means of payment for other assets. This fact is recognized in a simple statement by the jurist Pomponius. The Latin term for the procedure by which the payer transferred a nomen that was owed to him to the seller was delegatio. There was in fact a market in nomina.


As for the importance of coinage over credit, we think the following is a good point to leave our wander through the Roman credit system on:

Citar
What is most interesting about the aggregate stock of silver coinage in the late Republic is that it apparently starts to decrease after about 79 b.c., having previously risen steadily for generations, though there is no reason to think that there was any major decline in economic activity. Whatever exact motives led the authorities to mint coins, we may presume that this decrease would not have taken place if it had caused serious inconvenience to the well-to-do. The reason why it did not have this effect, I suggest, was that a large, and probably increasing, proportion of their sizeable financial transactions was being carried out wholly or mainly by means of documents.


In short coinage is only one small part of the Roman monetary story.
"Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going." – Another