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Autor Tópico: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal  (Lida 298441 vezes)

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1560 em: 2023-01-12 03:47:50 »
Um comentário interessante em relação a este problema:

«Mamdouh Salameh on January 09 2023 said:

Washington will indeed find it extremely difficult to refill its SPR after a total withdrawal of 221 barrels in 2022. The reasons are:

1- US shale oil is a spent force incapable of raising its production to contribute to the refilling.

2- There is no spare oil in the current tight global oil market.

3- Oil sellers will either refuse to abide by the Western price cap on Russian oil exports or won’t agree to sell their oil at $70 a barrel as the US Department of Energy (DoE) is demanding.

Even if the DoE found enough oil to buy, refilling the SPR at a rate of 3.0 million barrels a month will take almost 6 years.

Withdrawing 221 million barrels from the SPR proved to be an act of futility with hardly any noticeable impact on oil prices. While the Biden administration would like to claim success, the truth of the matter is that the recent fall in oil prices was triggered by China’s lockdown and concerns about global recession.

Moreover, a withdrawal of this size could prove to be a one-off operation.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert»


Relativamente à seguinte notícia:

«Washington Has Trouble Refilling The SPR After 220 Million Barrel Draw
By Charles Kennedy - Jan 09, 2023, 2:00 PM CST

    The DoE has received several offers for February purchases to refill the SPR.
    For February, the plan was to purchase 3 million barrels, ideally when oil dropped to around $70 per barrel.
    The rejected bids are prompting speculation that refilling the SPR will be challenging, at best.»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Washington-Has-Trouble-Refilling-The-SPR-After-220-Million-Barrel-Draw.html
« Última modificação: 2023-01-12 03:48:31 por Kaspov »
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1561 em: 2023-01-13 05:17:13 »
Acerca da reabertura chinesa e o seu efeito bullish:

«Mamdouh Salameh on December 27 2022 said:

China’s opening up is a huge bullish factor which could indeed overwhelm global concerns over recession. The rationale is that China and most Asian countries are less affected by inflation and by extension recession than their Western counterparts for the simple reason that they have been receiving cheaper Russian crude oil, gas and coal supplies. Coupled with robust fundamentals in the global oil market, I can see prices surging upward with Brent crude going over $90 a barrel in the first quarter of 2023 and even touching $100.

If Saudi Arabia has indeed cut its January-loading cargoes for most export destinations, this may not be reflective of the overall decline in prices or demand as the author suggested. On the contrary, it could be that Saudi Arabia is expecting oil prices to surge in January and is merely waiting to sell its withheld cargoes at higher prices.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Middle-East-Producers-Cautious-To-Hike-Oil-Prices-At-Start-Of-2023.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1562 em: 2023-01-13 06:10:57 »
Uma possibilidade interessante:


«Andurand: Oil Prices Could Exceed $140 If China's Economy Fully Reopens
By Julianne Geiger - Jan 06, 2023, 11:00 AM CST

    Hedge fund manager Andurand: full reopening of Chinese economy could send oil prices past $140 per barrel.
    Andurand: The market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost.
    Andurand did say last week that oil demand will be limited somewhat by a growth in the EV sector.»


«Crude oil prices could exceed $140 per barrel yet this year if China’s economy fully reopens, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said on Friday.

Andurand sees the possibility of crude oil demand growing by more than 4 million barrels per day this year—a 4% increase over last year. This far exceeds crude demand growth set out for 2023 by other oil market forecasters.

“I think oil will go upwards of $140 a barrel once Asia fully reopens, assuming there will be no more lockdowns, Andurand said, adding that the “market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost that it will bring.”

Andurand’s forecast goes against the trend that crude oil prices set so far this year. During the first week of the year, crude oil prices tumbled by 9% in the first two trading days in what was the worst start to a year since 1991.

Last week, Andurand said in a tweet that oil demand could increase between 3 and 4 million bpd this year, aided by the switch from oil to gas.

China’s reopening has been on the oil industry’s radar ever since it employed its zero-covid policies and locked down much of its economy. China only recently made significant changes to its covid policies, abandoning its strict measures in favor of relaxed testing requirements and travel restrictions. But China’s reopening has been plagued with a new wave of Covid, spooking many oil bulls off what would be their rejoicing at what should be a significant bump in demand.

Andurand did say last week that oil demand will be limited somewhat by a growth in the EV sector, as EVs have the potential to displace 600,000 bpd of oil demand.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Andurand-Oil-Prices-Could-Exceed-140-If-Chinas-Economy-Fully-Reopens.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1563 em: 2023-01-13 06:14:37 »
E o respectivo comentário que se segue, sempre de muito interesse:

«Mamdouh Salameh on January 07 2023 said:
Even if China fully reopens its economy, its crude oil imports could rise to 12 million barrels a day (mbd) compared with an average daily import of 11.76 mbd in 2021. This doesn’t in any shape or form warrant a rise of Brent crude to $140 a barrel as Andurand suggested.

What could, however, cause Brent crude to surge to $140 is a situation in which 8.0 mbd of Russian crude and petroleum products accounting for 13% of global oil exports are prevented from reaching the global oil market. In such circumstances the world could face an oil crisis which could be twice as bad as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2014 collapse of oil prices or the 1973 Arab oil embargo. We could then then see Brent crude surging higher than $140.

OPEC+ which is probably one of the very best forecasters in the world projects that global oil demand would grow by 2.5 mbd in 2023 over 2022 rising from 101.3 mbd in 2022 to 103.8 mbd.

The global oil market will continue to be driven in 2023 by many bullish factors including China’s easing of its lockdown, robust global oil demand, a shrinking global spare production including OPEC’s and a huge underinvestment in oil and gas.

Against such realities, crude prices have no alternative but to resume surging with Brent crude headed towards $100 a barrel or even higher in the first quarter of 2023.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Andurand-Oil-Prices-Could-Exceed-140-If-Chinas-Economy-Fully-Reopens.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

pedras11

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1564 em: 2023-01-14 11:47:57 »
O gás natural está a ter uma queda brutal a 1 ano. Está a 3,48 e veio dos 9.

Qual a vossa opinião?

Que instrumentos usariam para apostar na subida?

Reg

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1565 em: 2023-01-14 14:09:14 »
porque havia subir.....

se desde usa ate moscovo anda tudo alinhado!
Democracia Socialista Democrata. igualdade de quem berra mais O que é meu é meu o que é teu é nosso

Robusto

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1566 em: 2023-01-14 19:40:07 »
porque havia subir.....

se desde usa ate moscovo anda tudo alinhado!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

o camarada às vezes esquece-se que isto é um fórum de finanças, então se calhar o objetivo do pessoal passa um pouco por perceber como pode ganhar dinheiro nos mercados

Reg

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1567 em: 2023-01-14 22:44:58 »
gas virou politica


antigamente era isto  O hino mais antigo do mundo é Wilhelmus, da Holanda, composto entre 1568 e 1572 em homenagem a William de Orange (mártir da independência ..


hoje em dia uzam o gas!


gas e o martir!  da independencia ucrania! e russia voltar ser patria sem sansoes !


alem disso russia...uza precos baixos gas fazer politica......

     isto nunca foi mercado!

  cada pais uza pode fazer politica .... russia uza petrolio e  gas...

Poderia enviar menos, mas também poderia enviar mais em determinadas direções com a esperança de dividir os países europeus entre si, é o que alguns acadêmicos chamam de o 'princípio de incerteza do Kremlin', que põe à prova a unidade europeia"

   se gas e politica...na politica gas pode continuar baixo muito tempo

servia tem petrolio e gas mais baratos europa a decadas!
« Última modificação: 2023-01-14 23:14:52 por Reg »
Democracia Socialista Democrata. igualdade de quem berra mais O que é meu é meu o que é teu é nosso

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1568 em: 2023-01-16 21:39:27 »
Uma possibilidade interessante (quem sabe?):


«U.S. Oil Production Didn't Reach An All-Time High In 2022, But It Might In 2023
By Robert Rapier - Jan 16, 2023, 10:05 AM CST

    In 2019, annual U.S. oil production reached 12.3 million bpd, a record that would likely have been beaten in 2020 if Covid didn’t destroy demand.
    While we still don’t have complete data on 2022 production, it is safe to say that U.S. oil production in 2022 is set to be the second highest ever.
    Unless there is another geopolitical surprise or black swan event in 2023, U.S. oil production could set a new all-time record this year.

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Now that 2022 is behind us, we can review the final numbers for U.S. oil production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes these numbers, but they are usually two months behind. As such, as I write this they have only reported the monthly oil production numbers through September.

Nevertheless, the EIA reports weekly numbers and the four-week average in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. We can use the four-week averages for November and December to fill in those monthly gaps and get a close estimate of total oil production in 2022.

The final number may change slightly in the final reporting, but it would be a small change that doesn’t impact the conclusion that 2022 was the second-highest oil production on record.

Production

The yearly record thus far is 2019, when annual production reached 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd). If not for the Covid-19 pandemic, 2020 would have probably been higher as the monthly numbers reached 12.9 million bpd just before the pandemic impacted production. But by May 2020, oil production had plunged to 9.7 million bpd, and then began a slow recovery. That dragged the 2020 average down to 11.3 million bpd.

Although monthly numbers continued to recover into 2021, the annual average still came in slightly below 2020’s number at 11.25 million bpd. But there was a decent bounce in 2022 to reach 11.85 million bpd.

Barring one of those geopolitical events that seem all too common in recent years, 2023 oil production should come in ahead of 2022 production. However, the rate of increase is likely to be more like that of 2021-2022 than the very high production increases seen during the Obama and Trump Administrations.

According to the Baker Hughes Rig Count data, at the end of 2022 there were 620 rigs drilling for oil. That was an increase of 140 rigs (29%) from the end of 2021, and nearly back to the ~680 rig level in the months preceding the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. However, that is still a far cry from the levels of 2014, when the rig count briefly exceeded 1,600.

Nevertheless, the 2019 record could be broken in 2023. It will be close. The second half of 2022 saw production levels right at the record level of 2019, and production did increase by half a million barrels per day during that period. If that trend continues into 2023, we may see a new oil production record.

By Robert Rapier via rrapier.com»

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Production-Didnt-Reach-An-All-Time-High-In-2022-But-It-Might-In-2023.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1569 em: 2023-01-19 02:41:29 »
O momento parece ser de optimismo cauteloso:


«OPEC Is ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ About Global Oil Demand In 2023
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 17, 2023, 7:30 AM CST

    OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais has said that the group is cautiously optimistic about oil demand as China opens up again.
    The group believes that a stronger demand outlook for China could offset continued concerns about a global economic slowdown.
    OPEC has reiterated its willingness to do “whatever it takes” to keep the oil market balanced in 2023.

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Signs of cautious optimism about a recovery in economies and oil demand have emerged, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Tuesday. 

The cautious optimism stems from the easing of the Covid curbs in China and the reopening of the Chinese borders earlier this month, according to OPEC’s secretary general.

“We’re seeing signs of green,” Al-Ghais told Bloomberg.

“We are optimistic, but we are cautiously optimistic.”

The Chinese reopening has created some tailwinds for oil prices in recent weeks, although the impact of the easing of the curbs may not be felt immediately in rising oil demand due to the surge in the number of Covid cases after China abandoned its ‘zero Covid’ policy.

China’s oil consumption is expected to jump by 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to a record 16 million bpd, a median estimate of 11 China-focused consultants polled by Bloomberg News showed last week.

Following the initial exit Covid wave after the strictest curbs were lifted, Chinese oil demand is set to rebound from the second quarter onwards, also raising global oil demand for this year, many analysts say.

The more optimistic demand outlook for China offsets to an extent continued concerns about developed economies, where rising interest rates could result in a significant slowdown and even recessions, according to OPEC’s Al-Ghais.

Still, the cartel is determined to do “whatever it takes” to keep the oil market balanced in 2023, OPEC’s secretary general told Bloomberg.

Analysts expect OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group to step up and defend an $80 per barrel floor under oil prices should recessions drag oil further down.

The first OPEC+ meeting for this year is in early February, but some analysts expect that the group will wait to see how much the EU embargo on imports of Russian oil products – effective February 5 – would disrupt the markets before taking any decision on changing the collective oil production targets. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Is-Cautiously-Optimistic-About-Global-Oil-Demand-In-2023.html
« Última modificação: 2023-01-19 02:41:56 por Kaspov »
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1570 em: 2023-01-19 02:56:02 »
Entretanto, os carros eléctricos prosseguem o seu avanço imparável - mas não convém esquecer que requerem energia eléctrica, em grande parte produzida a partir dos tão malfadados e vilipendiados combustíveis fósseis...


«IEA: Half Of All Cars Sold In Top Markets Will Be Electric By 2030
By Michael Kern - Jan 17, 2023, 9:00 AM CST

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the head of the IEA made some bold statements regarding electric vehicles.
    According to Fatih Birol, every second car sold in China, Europe, and the United States in 2030 will be an electric car.
    The IEA has warned of bottlenecks in battery supply chains, but clearly believes demand will continue to climb

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Every other car sold in 2030 in the three largest EV markets – China, Europe, and the United States – will be an electric vehicle, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

In 2030, every second car sold in Europe, the US, and China, the three largest car markets for electric cars, will be an electric car, the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 

“In addition to this immediate response to the energy crisis, there is also more structural response coming from the countries,” Birol said.

In the Global EV Outlook 2022 published in May 2022, the IEA said that while electric car sales continued to break records, mineral supply constraints are looming. Battery supply chains face bottlenecks and lack diversification as most battery metal processing is being done in China, according to the IEA.

“Pressure on the supply of critical materials will continue to mount as road transport electrification expands to meet net-zero ambitions. Additional investments are needed in the short term, particularly in mining, where lead times are much longer than for other parts of the supply chain,” the agency said.

The IEA also praised in October the surge in renewables and EVs for limiting the rise in global emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels globally were expected to rise by just under 1% in 2022, a much smaller increase compared to last year’s thanks to record deployment of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, the IEA said in October. In 2021, CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels jumped as the global economy began to recover rapidly from the economic crisis triggered by Covid, the IEA said.

In 2022, the rise in those emissions would be much smaller, defying expectations of a major jump because of the increased use of coal for power generation amid soaring natural gas prices, the international agency said. 

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com»

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Half-Of-All-Cars-Sold-In-Top-Markets-Will-Be-Electric-By-2030.html
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

Robusto

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« Responder #1571 em: 2023-01-19 10:54:27 »
O que eu acho imensa graça nos protestos dos verdes, etc., é que estes vão sempre ao lado do supply, mas nunca atacam o demand.

Aquela malta agora está toda lá em davos, no máximo do virtue signaling a dizerem que querem salvar o planeta. Mas depois vão bazar de jatinho privado, não é? olha que ecológico

justin

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« Responder #1572 em: 2023-01-19 11:28:35 »
O que eu acho imensa graça nos protestos dos verdes, etc., é que estes vão sempre ao lado do supply, mas nunca atacam o demand.

Aquela malta agora está toda lá em davos, no máximo do virtue signaling a dizerem que querem salvar o planeta. Mas depois vão bazar de jatinho privado, não é? olha que ecológico
ora aí está!  ;D
não ligar aos trades que posto. o mais certo é correr mal.

I. I. Kaspov

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« Responder #1573 em: 2023-01-19 16:58:08 »
O que eu acho imensa graça nos protestos dos verdes, etc., é que estes vão sempre ao lado do supply, mas nunca atacam o demand.

Aquela malta agora está toda lá em davos, no máximo do virtue signaling a dizerem que querem salvar o planeta. Mas depois vão bazar de jatinho privado, não é? olha que ecológico
ora aí está!  ;D

Pois, querem beneficiar do uso dos combustíveis fósseis, mas não querem que alguém os extraia e produza... é curioso, sem dúvida!...   ::)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

Robusto

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« Responder #1574 em: 2023-01-19 17:02:05 »
e depois admiram-se que o custo de vida aumente. Energia é vida! Se aumentas o custo de produzir energia, vais aumentar o custo de viver.

A famosa expressão "a próxima geração é que vai pagar a fatura", não apareceu por acaso. E o que o próximo ciclo económico vai mostrar, é que a "próxima" geração... se calhar é mesmo a nossa.

I. I. Kaspov

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« Responder #1575 em: 2023-01-19 17:03:37 »
e depois admiram-se que o custo de vida aumente. Energia é vida! Se aumentas o custo de produzir energia, vais aumentar o custo de viver.

A famosa expressão "a próxima geração é que vai pagar a fatura", não apareceu por acaso. E o que o próximo ciclo económico vai mostrar, é que a "próxima" geração... se calhar é mesmo a nossa.

Sem dúvida!   :(
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's Make Rome Great Again!

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« Responder #1576 em: 2023-01-19 19:42:03 »
Mais um comentário interessante:

«Mamdouh Salameh on January 16 2023 said:

I will bet my own projection against those of the 1000 energy professionals polled by Reuters and estimate that Brent crude oil price could hit $100 a barrel in the first or second quarter of 2023 and could even reach $105-$110 by the end of the year.

My projection is based on medium to long-term assumptions. The medium assumptions are a continued tightness in the global oil market, a robust oil demand, the China factor, a continued shrinking of global spare production capacity including OPEC’s and the complete failure of the Western oil price cap on Russian oil exports. Long term, my assumption are a relatively fast depletion of global oil reserves and underinvestment in oil and gas as a result of incessant pressure by environmental activists on the global oil industry.

Beyond 2023 I can see prices trending more steeply upward with Brent crude touching $115-$120 by 2026/27.

China will continue to be the driver of the global economy well into the future underpinned by the fact that it’s the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity (PPP), the largest importer of crude oil in the world, the workshop of the globe and the largest energy market.

According to my research, China’s oil demand is projected to rise to 17.10 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2023, 18.25 mbd in 2025 and 23.8 mbd in 2030 with crude oil imports hitting 13.20 mbd in 2023 rising to 15 mbd by 2025 and 20.85 mbd by 2030.

OPEC+ projects that global oil demand will rise by 2.3 mbd in 2023 to 103.8 mbd. China is expected to account for 50% of demand growth in 2023 or 1.15 mbd.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Professionals-Predict-87-Oil-In-2023.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1577 em: 2023-01-23 03:42:05 »
Poderá ser

«Why 2023 Will Be Another Strong Year For The Oil Industry
By Irina Slav - Jan 18, 2023, 7:00 PM CST

    Oil companies started 2023 with less debt than a year ago.
    Windfall taxes could make energy companies less profitable in 2023.
    Continued capex discipline and high energy prices could make for another year of strong earnings.

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Last year was a good year for the oil industry. Despite predictions of its looming demise as renewable energy leads to electrification that in turn leads to the death of oil, fossil fuels were the stars of the year, with demand for all, including coal, notably rising. Meanwhile, opposition to Big Oil grew louder and protests turned more extreme, with activists gluing themselves to streets and buildings, and vandalizing world-famous works of art in order to raise awareness of climate change.

Oblivious to this rise in the amount of activism, Big Oil went on to rake in record profits thanks to higher prices for the commodities it produces. According to Reuters, Big Oil majors will report combined earnings of close to $200 billion for 2022, with many of the supermajors booking record quarterly profits during the year thanks to the combination of strong demand for energy and limited supply.

The industry also had a chance to reduce debt thanks to the strong performance of its products last year. Per Reuters, the combined debt of Big Oil has fallen to $100 billion, which is the lowest in 15 years and down by more than 50 percent from 2020, when it reached more than $270 billion as companies borrowed to survive.

But it’s not all smooth sailing from here on out. First, there is the windfall profit tax that the EU and the UK decided to impose on energy companies in order to generate some money for its energy aid programs.

Shell said it expected the effect of the UK and EU windfall taxes will cost it $2.4 billion. It also said it may have to reconsider investment plans for the North Sea in light of that hit. Meanwhile, despite political opposition to developing more oil and gas reserves in the UK, more than 100 bids were submitted this month for new exploration in the basin.

Related: Canada Sees “Unprecedented” Number Of People Claiming EV Rebates

French TotalEnergies also said it would take a substantial hit from windfall taxes in the UK and the EU. According to the supermajor, it would come in at about $2.1 billion. As a result, the company said it will reduce its investments in the North Sea by a quarter, noting that the levy did not provide for any adjustments in case oil and gas prices fell.

Meanwhile, oil and gas prices did fall. Right now, oil is trading at around the same level it was trading a year ago and natural gas prices have fallen substantially in both Europe and the United States—its biggest supplier.

“The energy industry operates in a cyclical market and is subject to volatile commodity prices,” Jean-Luc Guiziou, TotalEnergies’ British head of exploration and production, told the FT this month. “We believe that the government should remain open to reviewing the energy profits levy if prices reduce before 2028.”

Exxon took it a step beyond criticism, filing a lawsuit against the European Union to get it to drop the windfall tax. The company argued that the tax is counterproductive, would discourage investments and undermine investor confidence.

Yet Big Oil has some big investment plans, just not for Europe. Exxon and Chevron, per Reuters, plan to spend 10 percent more this year than they did last year, to the tune of a combined $41 billion.

BP will be spending more on its U.S. shale and Gulf of Mexico operations even though European supermajors as a whole are expected to be more cautious with their money because of the windfall taxes. But they will continue spending heavily on low-carbon projects.

“The European majors appear much more attractively valued than the U.S. majors on our estimates,” HSBC said in a recent note quoted by Reuters. It is among banks that predict stronger share performance for European Big Oil majors after last year U.S. supermajors ruled the stock market.

If investment in low-carbon projects is the guarantee for stronger share performance, then HSBC is right. Indeed, pressure is growing on the oil industry to set itself more stringent emission-reduction targets and make stronger commitments to decarbonize. This pressure is unlikely to let up this year as governments in the EU, the UK, and the U.S. double down on their climate change plans, too.

Chances are that 2023 will be another strong year for the oil industry simply because those companies came in strong into the new year and demand for oil and gas is not expected to fall—on the contrary.

The EU will need to buy more gas to refill its storage and it will continue using oil products that it no longer buys from Russia. China is reopening and most observers expect a rebound in oil and gas demand to come sooner rather than later. Even the U.S., for all its green ambitions, is unlikely to stop being the biggest consumer of oil in months. The immediate future of Big Oil is certainly bright.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com»

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-2023-Will-Be-Another-Strong-Year-For-The-Oil-Industry.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1578 em: 2023-01-23 03:44:00 »
E o respectivo comentário:

«Mamdouh Salameh on January 19 2023 said:

From now on every single year will indeed be a good year for the oil industry for four major reasons.

The first is that its core business is primarily oil and gas and when prices of both rise it makes huge profits.

The second reason is that the global energy crisis will probably be with u well into the future if not permanently, This means that energy prices will continue to soar and this translates into increasing profits for the oil industry year after year.

A third reason is that oil and gas will continue to drive the global economy throughout the 21st century and probably far beyond.

The fourth reason is that renewables can’t on their own satisfy global demand for electricity without huge contributions from fossil fuels.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert »

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-2023-Will-Be-Another-Strong-Year-For-The-Oil-Industry.html
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Re: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal
« Responder #1579 em: 2023-01-23 03:48:25 »
Por outro lado, um artigo muito recente afirma que:

«U.S. Oil Rig Count Sees Largest Single Week Drop In 16 Months

By Julianne Geiger - Jan 20, 2023, 12:13 PM CST
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The total number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 4 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count fell to 771 this week—167 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2022, and 304 rigs lower than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Oil rigs in the United States fell by 10 this week, to 613. It is the largest single week drop in the number of oil rigs since September 2021. Gas rigs rose by 6, to 156. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 2, while rigs in the Eagle Ford fell by 1.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—broke it’s six week losing stream during the week ending January 13. The frac spread count is now 254, up 4 from the previous week. This is 11 fewer crews than a month ago and the same as a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States stayed the same at 12.2 million bpd level in the week ending January 13, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up 500,000 bpd versus a year ago.

At 11:00 a.m. ET, the WTI benchmark was trading up $0.12 on the day (+0.15%) at $80.45 per barrel—a less than $1 per barrel gain since this time last week.

The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.14 (+0.16%) at $86.30 per barrel on the day, and up about $1.30 per barrel compared to last Friday.

WTI was trading at $81.45 minutes after the data release, up nearly 1.4% on the day.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com»


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Sees-Largest-Single-Week-Drop-In-16-Months.html
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