Grécia - Tópico principal

[Counter Retail Trader]

O conceito que eu tenho de agiota é que se nao pagas ou fazem te a folha , ou a tua familia.....

Não parece que seja o caso..

[tommy]

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-06/greeks-have-voted-now-kick-them-out

Greeks Have Voted, Now Kick Them Out
Jul 6, 2015 6:41 AM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky

Greece has voted overwhelmingly against a compromise that would have allowed Europe to continue financing it. Now it must be forced out of the euro area and perhaps from the European Union -- otherwise everybody will demand the same no-strings deals, and aspirants from Eastern Europe will want to join the bloc for all the wrong reasons.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras did his best to convince the Greek people that voting "No" to a fiscal plan proposed by the country's creditors would strengthen the government's hand in fresh negotiations. "Today we celebrate the victory of democracy," he tweeted after it became clear the vote had gone his way. "Tomorrow, we will all continue our national effort to reach an agreement."

As part of that effort, Tsipras even asked Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who had proved unable to establish rapport with the creditors, to resign. "Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement," Varoufakis wrote on his blog.

European leaders will be sorely tempted to swallow the bait. Neither German Chancellor Angela Merkel nor French President Francois Hollande would like to be remembered as the leaders who failed to keep the European monetary union, or perhaps even the EU itself, together. After all, even the International Monetary Fund considers Greece's debt unsustainable, so why hold on to the illusion that it can ever be repaid in full? Why not cut it in exchange for a commitment from Tsipras that he will reform the country's economy to make it more self-sufficient?

Besides, there's the geopolitical angle to consider. The U.S., concerned that failing to keep Greece satisfied would ruin the European consensus on sanctions against Russia, has lobbied Merkel to find a way to keep Greece in the euro. Greece is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member protecting the alliance's southern flank, where Russia has been active lately, and Tsipras has been well-received in Moscow.

Jan Dams spelled out that argument in the German daily newspaper, Die Welt. Merkel, he wrote, can convince her domestic audience only by saying firmness with Greece was strengthening the euro area and warning others against taking Greece's path. "Everywhere else people will say to that: Europeans have failed to solve the Greek problem, meaning Merkel has failed," Dams wrote. "And they will ask themselves: How will they handle the Westernization of Ukraine, where they have a much stronger opponent in Vladimir Putin?"

Working out a compromise can be spun like the statesmanlike thing to do. It's not.

It's important to understand why the eastern members of the euro are among the strongest opponents of bending to Greek demands. The easy way to explain that is jealousy: Greece has been getting aid to maintain a higher living standard than these countries have. To add insult to injury, their per capita exposure to Greece is higher, in comparison with their voters' average incomes, than that of Germany and France:
Greecepain

That, however, is not the real reason.  These countries have had to bend over backwards to satisfy the requirements of the monetary union, after already  struggling to meet the EU's increasingly exacting standards for membership just a few years ago. All Greece had to do to get into the euro was lie about its budget deficit.

"Rejection of reforms by Greece cannot mean that they will get the money easier," Slovakian Finance Minister Peter Kazimir tweeted after the Greek vote results came in.

If EU leaders bow to Greek demands, the double standard would also be obvious to the voters and ruling elites of EU membership candidates such as Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania. It would be equally  evident to Ukraine, which is still fighting a war for the sake of a hazy prospect of EU accession.

In Ukraine, the Greek crisis has been covered without much sympathy for Greek pensioners struggling to survive on 600 euros per month. This is more than members of Ukraine's new police force, expected to be less corrupt than the old one, are paid. As part of its $17.5 billion IMF bailout -- dwarfed by Greece's -- Ukraine is raising energy tariffs and cutting pensions, something the Tsipras government has fought tooth and nail.

"This year, our responsible and effective policies have consolidated the entire world's help and solidarity around Ukraine," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a recent televised address. "Greece has found itself in isolation due to its less than responsible behavior when it tried to blackmail the European Commission."

If Tsipras now succeeds in getting more money out of Europe, it will show countries such as Ukraine that honest effort doesn't pay. They will know that the EU's membership decisions are political rather than rule-based.

This clear case of moral hazard is also dangerous to vulnerable countries inside the EU such as Spain, whose government, like the east Europeans, favors a tough line on Greece. A Tsipras victory would encourage similar populist forces in other southern European countries and give voters a reason to back them.

You can vote your debts away, as many countries have done by supporting governments that subsequently defaulted. You shouldn't be able to vote for other people to pay you more. If that's what results from Sunday's vote for Greece, it will be an absurd lesson to the rest of Europe, both within and outside the EU.

[pedferre]

E enquanto continuamos sempre a debate a porcaria da Grécia, existe um pais em que as pessoas morrem todos os dias (Ucrânia) porque queriam vir para a UE, e depois vem falar em ajuda humanitária para a Grécia, a Ucrânia e que está em guerra tem montes de pessoas deslocadas dentro do pais mortos, feridos, a Crimeia ocupada, já que o Tsipras gosta tanto do Putin que vá lá pedir dinheiro.

Já está em negociações ... 

6:24:05 AM RTRS - GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS PM TSIPRAS WILL HOLD PHONE TALKS WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN WITHIN THE DAY

E deixar a Rússia implodir economicamente com a aventura na Ucrânia, resgate à Grécia, petróleo a desvalorizar (para mais se chegarem a acordo com o Irão).

[tractatus]

Eu compreendo a leitura...só utilizei a palavra agiota porque não estou a ver ninguém no seu bom senso emprestar-me dinheiro sabendo que não vou conseguir pagar...como aconteceu com a Grécia...O agiota empresta ate chegar a limites fora do senso normal...pois a garantia é o bem mais precioso que temos...se sabiam há anos atras que a situação já era muito difícil...a segunda ajuda nunca devia de ter acontecido...se vocês acompanham os mercados diariamente sabem bem disso...dou um Ex: o problema BES dois analistas na CNBC 12 meses antes quando foi feita a prova de solidez aos bancos portugueses, eles previam que o BES pudesse falir...aonde há fumo...Há fogo...

[tommy]

[Incognitus]

Eu compreendo a leitura...só utilizei a palavra agiota porque não estou a ver ninguém no seu bom senso emprestar-me dinheiro sabendo que não vou conseguir pagar...como aconteceu com a Grécia...O agiota empresta ate chegar a limites fora do senso normal...pois a garantia é o bem mais precioso que temos...se sabiam há anos atras que a situação já era muito difícil...a segunda ajuda nunca devia de ter acontecido...se vocês acompanham os mercados diariamente sabem bem disso...dou um Ex: o problema BES dois analistas na CNBC 12 meses antes quando foi feita a prova de solidez aos bancos portugueses, eles previam que o BES pudesse falir...aonde há fumo...Há fogo...

A alternativa de não emprestar mais é deixar a Grécia fazer o ajustamento todo instantaneamente, pois isso obrigaria a Grécia a deixar de ter contas (do Estado) desequilibradas de um dia para  outro.

[Incognitus]

RTRS - ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL TO DISCUSS EMERGENCY FUNDING TO GREEK BANKS IN TELEPHONE CALL LATER IN AFTERNOON ON MONDAY - SOURCES

Às tantas cometem o erro ...

[Automek]

Esse mapa do tommy é muito bom, com a divisão dos créditos nas várias instituições.

[pedferre]

RTRS - ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL TO DISCUSS EMERGENCY FUNDING TO GREEK BANKS IN TELEPHONE CALL LATER IN AFTERNOON ON MONDAY - SOURCES

Às tantas cometem o erro ...

Começo a acreditar que o Tsipras foi mesmo financiado pelo Putin, e que o objetivo dele é causar o máximo de estrago na zona Euro e UE, mesmo que isso leve ao fim da Grécia. É a vingança da Rússia pela perda da Ucrânia para o ocidente, tentar rebentar a UE por dentro, seja através da Grécia (com o Tsipras) ou da Hungria com o (Orban).

[tractatus]

Eu compreendo a leitura...só utilizei a palavra agiota porque não estou a ver ninguém no seu bom senso emprestar-me dinheiro sabendo que não vou conseguir pagar...como aconteceu com a Grécia...O agiota empresta ate chegar a limites fora do senso normal...pois a garantia é o bem mais precioso que temos...se sabiam há anos atras que a situação já era muito difícil...a segunda ajuda nunca devia de ter acontecido...se vocês acompanham os mercados diariamente sabem bem disso...dou um Ex: o problema BES dois analistas na CNBC 12 meses antes quando foi feita a prova de solidez aos bancos portugueses, eles previam que o BES pudesse falir...aonde há fumo...Há fogo...

A alternativa de não emprestar mais é deixar a Grécia fazer o ajustamento todo instantaneamente, pois isso obrigaria a Grécia a deixar de ter contas (do Estado) desequilibradas de um dia para  outro.

Precisamente o que esta acontecer...

[Incognitus]

Eu compreendo a leitura...só utilizei a palavra agiota porque não estou a ver ninguém no seu bom senso emprestar-me dinheiro sabendo que não vou conseguir pagar...como aconteceu com a Grécia...O agiota empresta ate chegar a limites fora do senso normal...pois a garantia é o bem mais precioso que temos...se sabiam há anos atras que a situação já era muito difícil...a segunda ajuda nunca devia de ter acontecido...se vocês acompanham os mercados diariamente sabem bem disso...dou um Ex: o problema BES dois analistas na CNBC 12 meses antes quando foi feita a prova de solidez aos bancos portugueses, eles previam que o BES pudesse falir...aonde há fumo...Há fogo...

A alternativa de não emprestar mais é deixar a Grécia fazer o ajustamento todo instantaneamente, pois isso obrigaria a Grécia a deixar de ter contas (do Estado) desequilibradas de um dia para  outro.

Precisamente o que esta acontecer...

Se não chegarem a acordo, sim.

Aliás, a coisa deve estar feia porque formalmente a Grécia ainda não cortou as despesas necessárias. Se calhar o Varoufakis demitiu-se porque no final de Julho isso pode ser óbvio, quando o povo vir as pensões e salários públicos a não serem integralmente pagos.

[tractatus]

Mesmo que cheguem acordo...a divida da Grécia já era há anos atras insustentável...quanto mais dinheiro emprestarem mais insustentável fica...a única solução é o perdão da divida...mas ai os credores dizem adeus ao seu dinheiro e dá-se um colapso na europa...

[Incognitus]

Não, seja qual for o resultado, não se dá um colapso na Europa. A Grécia não tem grande significância por si só.

Pode acontecer é que se isto impuser perdas a entidades oficiais, no futuro exista menos disponibilidade de entidades oficiais arriscarem o dinheiro dos contribuintes, o que fará incumprimentos futuros serem mais violentos para quem incumpre. Mas isso também não é propriamente muito desastroso.

[Automek]

RTRS - ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL TO DISCUSS EMERGENCY FUNDING TO GREEK BANKS IN TELEPHONE CALL LATER IN AFTERNOON ON MONDAY - SOURCES

Às tantas cometem o erro ...

seria criminoso

[tractatus]

Tudo isto ainda ira ser descontado nos mercados financeiros...mas iram aguentar-se como sempre...mas muitos bancos iram arrebentar por todo o mundo...como já preveem alguns analistas...

[tommy]

Ou não...os mercados apenas terão alguma turbulência, e depois de estabilizar, continuarão o seu caminho.

E a grecia ficara esquecida para todo o sempre. 

[tractatus]

Kipper und Wipper 1623 Germany Financial crisis during the start of the Thirty Years' War (1621-1623)

Tulip mania Bubble 1637 Netherlands A bubble (1633–37) in the Netherlands during which contracts for bulbs of tulips reached extraordinarily high prices, and suddenly collapsed
 
The Mississippi Bubble 1720 France Banque Royale by John Law stopped payments of its note in exchange for specie and as result caused economic collapse in France. 

South Sea Bubble of 1720 1720 United Kingdom Affected early European stock markets, during early days of chartered joint stock companies 

Bengal Bubble of 1769 1769 United Kingdom Primarily caused by the British East India Company, whose shares fell from £276 in December 1768 to £122 in 1784 

Crisis of 1772 1772 United KingdomUnited States   

Financial Crisis of 1791 1791 United States Shares of First bank of US boom and bust in Aug and Sept 1791. Groundwork of Alexander Hamilton's cooperation with the Bank of New York to end this event would be crucial in ending the Panic of 1792 next year. 

Financial Panic of 1792 1792 United States   
Panic of 1796–1797 1796 United KingdomUnited States   
Panic of 1819 1819 United States   
Panic of 1825 1825 United Kingdom   
Panic of 1837 10 May 1837 United States   
Panic of 1847 1847 United Kingdom   
Panic of 1857 1857 United States   
Panic of 1866 1866 United Kingdom   
Black Friday 24 Sep 1869 United States   
Panic of 1873 9 May 1873  Initiated the Long Depression in the United States and much of Europe 
Paris Bourse crash of 1882 19 Jan 1882 France   
Panic of 1884 1884   

Encilhamento 1890 Brazil Lasting 3 years, 1890-1893, a Boom and bust process that boomed in late 1880s and burst on early 1890s, causing a collapse in the Brazilian economy and aggravating an already unstable political situation.

Panic of 1893 1893 United States   
Panic of 1896 1896 United States   
Panic of 1901 17 May 1901 United States Lasting 3 years, the market was spooked by the assassination of President McKinley in 1901, coupled with a severe drought later the same year. 

Panic of 1907 Oct 1907 United States Lasting over a year, markets took fright after U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt had threatened to rein in the monopolies that flourished in various industrial sectors, notably railways. 

Wall Street Crash of 1929 24 Oct 1929 United States Lasting over 4 years, the bursting of the speculative bubble in shares led to further selling as people who had borrowed money to buy shares had to cash them in, when their loans were called in. Also called the Great Crash or the Wall Street Crash, leading to the Great Depression. 

Recession of 1937–38 1937 United States Lasting around a year, this share price fall was triggered by an economic recession within the Great Depression and doubts about the effectiveness of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policy. 

Kennedy Slide of 1962 28 May 1962 United States Also known as the 'Flash Crash of 1962'

Brazilian Markets Crash of 1971 July 1971 Brazil Lasting through the 1970s and early-1980s, this was the end of a boom that started in 1969, compounded by the 1970s energy crisis coupled with early 1980s Latin American debt crisis.

1973–74 stock market crash Jan 1973 United Kingdom Lasting 23 months, dramatic rise in oil prices, the miners' strike and the downfall of the Heath government. 
Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash Aug 1982 Kuwait   

Black Monday 19 Oct 1987 United States   

Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange Crash June 1989 Brazil Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange Crash, due its weak internal controls and absence of credit discipline, that led to its collapse, and of which it never recovered

Friday the 13th mini-crash 13 Oct 1989 United States Failed leveraged buyout of United Airlines causes crash 

Early 1990s recession July 1990 United States Iraq invaded Kuwait in July 1990, causing oil prices to increase. The Dow dropped 18% in three months, from 2,911.63 on July 3 to 2,381.99 on October 16,1990. This recession lasted approximately 8 months. 

Japanese asset price bubble 1991 Japan Lasting approximately twenty years, through at least the end of 2011, share and property price bubble bursts and turns into a long deflationary recession. Some of the key economic events during the collapse of the Japanese asset price bubble include the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Dot-com bubble. In addition, more recent economic events, such as the late-2000s financial crisis and August 2011 stock markets fall have prolonged this period. 

Black Wednesday 16 Sep 1992  The Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower limit. 

1997 Asian financial crisis 2 July 1997 Thailand Hong Kong Philippines South Korea Indonesia Investors deserted emerging Asian shares, including an overheated Hong Kong stock market. Crashes occur in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, and elsewhere, reaching a climax in the October 27, 1997 mini-crash. 

October 27, 1997 mini-crash 27 Oct 1997  Global stock market crash that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. 

1998 Russian financial crisis 17 Aug 1998 Russia The Russian government devalues the ruble, defaults on domestic debt, and declares a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors. 

Dot-com bubble 10 March 2000 United States Collapse of a technology bubble, world economic effects arising from the September 11 attacks and the stock market downturn of 2002.
 
Economic effects arising from the September 11 attacks 11 Sep 2001  The September 11 attacks caused global stock markets to drop sharply. The attacks themselves caused approximately $40 billion in insurance losses, making it one of the largest insured events ever. 

Stock market downturn of 2002 9 Oct 2002  Downturn in stock prices during 2002 in stock exchanges across the United States, Canada, Asia, and Europe. After recovering from lows reached following the September 11 attacks, indices slid steadily starting in March 2002, with dramatic declines in July and September leading to lows last reached in 1997 and 1998. 

Chinese stock bubble of 2007 27 Feb 2007 China The SSE Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange tumbles 9% from unexpected selloffs, the largest drop in 10 years, triggering major drops in worldwide stock markets.

United States bear market of 2007–09 11 Oct 2007 United States Till June 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 all experienced declines of greater than 20% from their peaks in late 2007.

Financial crisis of 2007–08 16 Sep 2008 United States On September 16, 2008, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure of securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland was able to secure an emergency loan from the IMF in November. Later on, U.S. President George W. Bush signs the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act into law, creating a Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to purchase failing bank assets.

2009 Dubai debt standstill 27 Nov 2009 United Arab Emirates Dubai requests a debt deferment following its massive renovation and development projects, as well as the Great Recession. The announcement causes global stock markets to drop.

European sovereign debt crisis 27 April 2010 Europe Standard & Poor's downgrades Greece's sovereign credit rating to junk four days after the activation of a €45-billion EU–IMF bailout, triggering the decline of stock markets worldwide and of the Euro's value, and furthering a European sovereign debt crisis.

2010 Flash Crash 6 May 2010 United States The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffers its worst intra-day point loss, dropping nearly 1,000 points before partially recovering.

August 2011 stock markets fall 1 Aug 2011  Stock markets around the world plummet during late July and early August, and are volatile for the rest of the year.

Estas são todas as crises que existiram nos mercados financeiros em que muitos perderam tudo e poucos ganharam tudo...façam parte da minoria....

[tractatus]

7:51 EDT  - Risk off mode to kick start the new week of trading after Greeks rejected bailout terms in a referendum, pushing the nation further into uncharted territory and raising the risk of Grexit. The flight for safety sent U.S. yields down broadly. Still, the selloff in many riskier assets have been smaller than many had feared. Analysts say there is still hope of a deal to avoid Grexit. Some expect ECB's monetary stimulus to ringfence contagion to other eurozone countries. Uncertainty is likely to fuel more price swings in the short term and any deterioration of sentiment could fuel bigger market turmoil and send Treasury yields down more. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently at 2.301%, vs 2.393% on Thursday. U.S. bond markets were shut Friday for the  Independence Day  holiday. (min.zeng@ wsj.com; @minzengwsj)

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
   07-06-15   0751ET
  Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[Counter Retail Trader]

O spread anda meio louco , ando a pagar uma media de 5.

Alguem ja viu financeiras hoje e etfs do sector ?

[deMelo]

Eu compreendo a leitura...só utilizei a palavra agiota porque não estou a ver ninguém no seu bom senso emprestar-me dinheiro sabendo que não vou conseguir pagar...como aconteceu com a Grécia...O agiota empresta ate chegar a limites fora do senso normal...pois a garantia é o bem mais precioso que temos...se sabiam há anos atras que a situação já era muito difícil...a segunda ajuda nunca devia de ter acontecido...se vocês acompanham os mercados diariamente sabem bem disso...dou um Ex: o problema BES dois analistas na CNBC 12 meses antes quando foi feita a prova de solidez aos bancos portugueses, eles previam que o BES pudesse falir...aonde há fumo...Há fogo...

A alternativa de não emprestar mais é deixar a Grécia fazer o ajustamento todo instantaneamente, pois isso obrigaria a Grécia a deixar de ter contas (do Estado) desequilibradas de um dia para  outro.

Precisamente o que esta acontecer...

Se não chegarem a acordo, sim.

Aliás, a coisa deve estar feia porque formalmente a Grécia ainda não cortou as despesas necessárias. Se calhar o Varoufakis demitiu-se porque no final de Julho isso pode ser óbvio, quando o povo vir as pensões e salários públicos a não serem integralmente pagos.

Há algum enquadramento em pensar que podem a vir já a ser pagos noutra moeda? (Dracma)