Apesar de dizerem o que se diz da AT, algumas coisas funcionam e há que lhes atribuir certas probabilidades e stops a condizer.
Por exemplo: os doji serão um dos mais usados em AT.
Um artigo sobre AT:
Bullish pattern in the S&P meets wall
Published: Feb 26, 2016 10:47 a.m. ET
By
NIGAM
ARORA
On Feb. 18, I brought to investors' attention a developing bullish pattern of S&P 500 Index represented by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -0.23% staging gains of 1% plus three days in a row. The previous time it happened was in 2011, and a rally ensued. On Feb. 19 when the market was pulling back, as well as gloom and doom had taken hold, I wrote, “Stocks are pulling back. After the strong four day rally, this pull back is natural and does not foreshadow anything about the future.”
As shown on the chart, a bullish 'W' pattern is forming now.
Please click here for an annotated chart of ESH6.
The chart also shows the heavy resistance zone. The market is now right up against this resistance zone.
When a 'W' pattern is formed near the bottom of the yearly range, there is about 66% probability of the market going up. However, if the market can now overcome the heavy resistance zone shown on the chart, there is an 84% probability of the market going up.
If only the markets were so simple. Technicals patterns work until they don't work. or this reason, technical patterns constitute only a small part of The Arora Report's adaptive timing model. An adaptive model automatically changes with market conditions. Adaptiveness overcomes the major weakness of conventional models that work only for a brief period and then stop working as the market conditions change.
There are several flies in the ointment even with this technical pattern. The pattern for the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ, -0.13% does not have has bullish a look. The same is true of the popular small-cap iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, +0.63% Intuitively the foregoing makes a lot of sense. At times of high volatility, money managers tend to focus on large less volatile stocks and for this reason are more likely to buy stocks in the S&P 500.
For inter-market confirmation, look for gold — SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -0.69% — and silver to go down, utilities to go down and the Japanese yen to weaken.
marketwatchPara além da questão da AT em W, destaco:
"Technicals patterns work until they don't work. "
por isso complementar com outras abordagens.
Destaco ainda:
"At times of high volatility, money managers tend to focus on large less volatile stocks and for this reason are more likely to buy stocks in the S&P 500."
MAS PARA QUEM ESTÁ A COMEÇAR, HÁ MUITAS COISAS POR AQUI E BOAS PARA ALÉM DA AT.Só coloquei isto por causa da probabilidades associadas à alguns indicadores de AT (aliás há estudos sobre isto) e porque achei intreressante este pattern.
MAS, COMO ALGUÉM DIZ, LER, COMPREENDER E TESTAR.
Parece haver cada vez mais pessoas a pensar a longo prazo. É uma das muitas abordagens, como sistemas, etc.
