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901
Comunidade de Traders / Re: Krugman et al
« em: 2015-05-20 16:16:33 »
Conservatives and Keynes

Tony Yates asks, “Why can’t we all get along?” Lamenting another really bad, obviously political defense of austerity, he declares that

it’s disappointing that the debate has become a left-right thing. I don’t see why it should.

But the debate over business-cycle economics has always been a left-right thing. Specifically, the right has always been deeply hostile to the notion that expansionary fiscal policy can ever be helpful or austerity harmful; most of the time it has been hostile to expansionary monetary policy too (in the long view, Friedman-type monetarism was an aberration; Hayek-type liquidationism is much more the norm). So the politicization of the macro debate isn’t some happenstance, it evidently has deep roots.

Oh, and some of us have been discussing those roots in articles and blog posts for years now. We’ve noted that after World War II there was a concerted, disgraceful effort by conservatives and business interests to prevent the teaching of Keynesian economics in the universities, an effort that succeeded in killing the first real Keynesian textbook. Samuelson, luckily, managed to get past that barrier — and many were the complaints. William Buckley’s God and Man at Yale* was a diatribe against atheism (or the failure to include religious indoctrination, which to him was the same thing) and collectivism — by which he mainly meant teaching Keynesian macroeconomics.

What’s it all about, then? The best stories seem to involve ulterior political motives. Keynesian economics, if true, would mean that governments don’t have to be deeply concerned about business confidence, and don’t have to respond to recessions by slashing social programs. Therefore it must not be true, and must be opposed. As I put it in the linked post,

So one way to see the drive for austerity is as an application of a sort of reverse Hippocratic oath: “First, do nothing to mitigate harm”. For the people must suffer if neoliberal reforms are to prosper.

If you think I’m being too flip, too conspiracy-minded, or both, OK — but what’s your explanation? For conservative hostility to Keynes is not an intellectual fad of the moment. It has absolutely consistent for generations, and is clearly very deep-seated.

Krugman

* William Buckley, fundador da National Review, ideólogo da direita americana.

902
Comunidade de Traders / Re: Krugman et al
« em: 2015-05-20 15:54:50 »
Krugman afinal estava totalmente errado.  :D


deixa-te disso tommy, vai lá brincar com o lego. disto não riscas nada.
tu é que quiseste trazer o Niall Fergusson para o baile. depois não te queixes. neste momento ele é o laughing stock dos economistas, mesmo os conservadores.
sentiu-se melindrado pelo posts do krugman. diz que já não quer brincar, que o krugman é mau, que é o krugman que está errado, quer ir-se embora para casa e levar a bola do jogo.
enfim, é só rir.
o principal argumento contra o krugman é que ele é 'mau' para os seus coleguinhas. o greenspan também se queixou há uns dias atrás.
florzinhas de estufa. e hipócritas à décima centésima cas, claro.
vai lá para o teu cantinho e lê mais umas coisas, tommyzinho.
acabaste de ganhar umas orelhas de burro tal qual o mariquinhas do Fergusson.


Niall Ferguson Displays His Ignorance of Economics
Published: 11 May 2015

You have to admire Niall Ferguson. There aren't many people who are willing to write lengthy diatribes on topics on which they seem to know next to nothing, but some would say that is the definition of a Harvard professor.

Anyhow, he apparently believes that the victory of the Conservative Party in the U.K. election last week showed that he was correct to endorse their austerity policy and that Paul Krugman was wrong to criticize it.

If he was familiar at all with the literature on the impact of the economy on elections he would know that elections are largely determined by the economy's performance in the last year before an election, not an administration's entire term. And, since the conservatives relaxed their austerity in the last two years (as had been widely noted long before the election), the economy was not performing badly in the immediate lead up to the election.

Ferguson's piece presents a cornucopia of silly mistakes, which I don't have time to address, but I will give my favorite:

"On more than one occasion during the crisis, Krugman applauded Gordon Brown for injecting capital directly into the British banks rather than relying on purchases of "troubled assets," the initial thrust of the Troubled Asset Relief Program in the United States. In October 2008, Krugman engaged in the kind of sycophancy that usually indicates a man angling for a knighthood:

'Has Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, saved the world financial system? ... The Brown government has shown itself willing to think clearly about the financial crisis, and act quickly on its conclusions. .... Governments [should] provide financial institutions with more capital in return for a share of ownership ... [a] sort of temporary part-nationalization ... The British government went straight to the heart of the problem - and moved to address it with stunning speed.'

"TARP has of course proved far more successful than the UK's nationalization of too-big-to-fail behemoths like RBS."

The small detail that Ferguson apparently missed is that TARP also went the route of giving the banks capital in exchange for share ownership in the form of the purchase of shares of preferred stock.

At the time, Plan A from the Bush administration was to directly purchase the bad assets from the banks (hence the name "Troubled Asset Relief Program"). Krugman and others argued that the better route was to give the banks capital, which is what TARP eventually did, following Gordon Brown's lead. (I personally favored letting the market work its magic and then pick up the pieces after the Wall Street behemoths were buried in the ground.) In other words, Ferguson is bizarrely holding up TARP as an alternative course to the path set out by Brown, when in fact it followed the path set out by Brown.

But the real story is the overall performance of the U.K. economy, which Ferguson somehow thinks was extraordinary. The data beg to differ, even if the U.K. has done better in the last couple of years as the government relaxed its austerity. Here is the per capita GDP record of the G-7 economies since the crisis.



Source: International Monetary Fund.

As can be seen, the U.K. ties France for fifth place, only beating out Italy for last place. If we treat 2010 as the start point, it managed to close the gap with France in the next four years (which also was forced to pursue austerity since it was in the euro zone), but fell further behind Germany, Japan, Canada, and the U.S.

In 2014, seven years after the beginning of the crisis, per capita GDP in the U.K. was virtually identical to what it had been in 2007. By comparison, per capita GDP in the U.S. in 1988 was 20.1 percent higher than it had been at start of the 1981 recession. In 1997 it was 12.8 percent larger than it had been at the start of the recession in 1990. It would require some extraordinary affirmative action for conservative politicians to follow Ferguson and declare the Cameron record a success.

For folks who thought I was being unfair to use 2010 as a reference point, since Cameron only took office mid-year, you're right. The OECD has the quarterly data. The UK economy grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter and a 4.0 percent rate in the second quarter when Cameron took office. This slowed to 2.6 percent in the third quarter and 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. So taking the year as a whole as the start point for Cameron is undoubtedly too generous.

I should also explain that there is a reason for using the pre-recession level of output as a reference point. In the old days (i.e. before the pathetic recovery from this downturn) economists expected economies to bounce back quickly from a recession, making up the ground lost in the recession. This is why we had years of 5-7 percent growth following the steep downturns in 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. This recession has been different in that we have not seen a steep bounce back in any country. I feel it is appropriate to apply normal economic standards to evaluate policy performance instead of using affirmative action for inept policymakers.

fonte

Z
 

903
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 14:18:22 »
Mas está longe de perfeito e eticamente parece ter bastantes falhas.

eh pá, ao pé dos banqueiros, é um anjo.
por que raio é que teria de ser perfeito?
e já agora o capitalismo deve ser ético? isso é uma novidade.

L

904
Comunidade de Traders / Re: The Beggar of Baghdad
« em: 2015-05-20 09:26:12 »
se usares uma alavancagem de 10x (e para mim já é uma coisa enorme, evito passar das 5x), o teu saldo inicial é de 1.000.000. se tiveres em media sempre cerca de 5 activos abertos, destinas 200.000 a cada um.
imagina q vais abrir 4 pares de forex + DAX, para cada par serão 2 lotes e se abrires dax qd ele está nos 11850, podes fazer dax a 16 o ponto (200.000/11850) ou seja não chega a um contrato pq cada contrato é a 25 o ponto.
isto é um calculo q deves fazer com o saldo a cada momento, eu fiz com o saldo inicial e com aquelas permissas. e é só um exemplo para veres como estás a abrir quantidades exageradas, não quer dizer q tenhas de usar exactamente esta alavancagem nem esta divisão do saldo, claro, acho q tens é de não exagerar senão podes não chegar ao fim do teste e será um teste q não serve para nada pq em real deusnoslibre de fazer uma maluqueira dessas:D

ok, deixa-me cá rever a alavancagem.

thx miss A,

Z

905
estou a ver sim senhora...

Z

906
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 09:16:02 »
o musk eh tao estupendo e visionario que ate parece tirado de um livro da ayn rand

ora bolas. o zark não tem o neo blocked.
tive que ler. e concordar. que chatice.
pois é!
têm ali um John Galt e dizem que não presta.
até a parte de remance de cordel com a ex-mulher, lá está.
vá-se lá percebê-los.

L

907
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 06:15:51 »
Eu li na diagonal e reparei que falam nas kardashians. So por isso amanha vou ler com mais atencao.
zark tu les esses artigos todos de kilometro e meio?

não só o li como o editei em menos de cinco minutos, para ficar mais legível no forum.

what the hell is wrong with you people?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRifKEf0xr8

o por é o da direita e o Inc é o da esquerda
do ponto de vista de quem olha para eles...
não, ao contrário....ou vice-versa, não interessa

Z

Tas enganado, eu nao sou de direita nem esquerda, nem liberal ou conservador. O meu reparo de leres textos com kilometro e meio era so mesmo curiosidade, pelo teu interesse nesses temas todos. Acho engracado, so isso.

no video!
no video o gajo que diz what's the metter with you people, di-lo a duas pessoas à frente dele.

L

908
Comunidade de Traders / Re: The Beggar of Baghdad
« em: 2015-05-20 03:25:13 »
ana,
provavelmente não me expliquei bem.
o objectivo para este mês de teste é fazer 100 trades.
posso fazê-los com 0.01 lotes ou com 10 lotes. é igual.
a demo da xtb vem com 100k € por defeito. eu pedi-lhes menos mas eles não quiseram tirar...
o que eu quero testar é a percentagem de acerto.
a demo tem 30 dias de validade e foi iniciada no dia 15 deste mês. já vou com 2 dias de trading de atraso.
para conseguir fazer 100 trades nos próximos 18 dias de mercado tenho que me expôr numa data de activos.
como disse posso fazê-lo com lotes de 0.01 ou 10.
dado o tamanho da conta nem sequer estava ligar a isso. sairam 10 como podia ter saido 1. ou 5.
não é o money management que está em teste aqui. claro que se ficar sem cash não consigo atingir o objectivo dos 100 trades, e por isso estou concerteza a alavancar demasiado.

para fazer isto (100 trades) e sem te dar grandes dores de cabeça, que alavancagem é que sugerias?
estou a escrever-te porque sei que te preocupas com o pessoal que pensa que isto é fácil e de repente vêm um maluco a comprar e vender 10 lotes de cada vez e podem pensar que é normal. nem sequer me lembrei disso. lembro-me de muita coisa mas dessa não me lembrei.

a situação é: tenho uma arma apontada à cabeça e o gajo que a tem está mandar-me fazer 100 trades com 100k disponíveis.
tentando aproximar isto o mais possível da realidade, que tamanho de lote sugerias e qual a exposição máxima?

neste exercício não se põe a questão do threshold psicológico para lá do qual se começa a sujar a cuequinha.
de qualquer forma, para manter uma coisa com alguma razoabilidade, atira aí uma sugestão.

100k, 100 trades, 20 dias de mercado (dois já passaram): que tamanhao de lote acharias razoável para um teste? não tem que replicar fielmente a realidade. tem também que ser algo ambicioso e arriscado. é um teste de stress.
só não quero ficar pendurado no 77º trade porque se acabou o cash.

Z

909
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:40:21 »
Goldfish have a better attention span than you, smartphone user
A study from Microsoft claims mobile devices have shortened the average human attention span to just eight...SQUIRREL!

Of all the movies about species that attempt to overtake humanity -- Planet of the Apes films, the Piranha movies, Night of the Lepus -- none has focused on the goldfish. However, the cute little fishies could be on the path to ruling the world after all, since they apparently are beating us with their superior attention spans.

Goldfish (the actual fish, not the crackers) may have a better attention span than us gadget-toting humans.

According to a spring 2015 study from Microsoft, the average human attention span has fallen below that of goldfish -- and you can blame it on the gadgets we use to watch YouTube videos and play "Crossy Road." The researchers clocked the average human attention span at just 8 seconds in 2013, falling 4 seconds from the 12-second average in 2000, and putting humans just 1 second below goldfish.

Microsoft's study consisted of two parts. The first involved a survey in which 2,000 Canadians played attention retention games such as responding to patterns to determine their ability to maintain focus while completing repetitive tasks, spotting differences in pictures to gauge their ability to ignore distractions, and classifying letters and numbers (consonant or vowel, odd or even) to measure their ability to apply their cognitive skills to competing tasks.

The second part of the study looked at the attention levels of 112 Canadian participants by using portable machines that measured the electrical activity of the brain as participants interacted with different types of media while attempting other activities.

Microsoft's study found that people (or Canadians at least) are more easily distracted in the presence of devices with screens. "Digital lifestyles affect the ability to remain focused for extended periods of time. Canadians with more digital lifestyles (those who consume more media, are multi-screeners, social-media enthusiasts or earlier adopters of technology) struggle to focus in environments where prolonged attention is needed," the report said.

However, some good news did emerge from the study. Even though our attention spans have been reduced by devices, those very gadgets have also improved our ability to multitask. According to the report, those participants who lived a more digital lifestyle are "better at simultaneously processing information from different sources."

Since the study focused on determining effective marketing strategies, it doesn't list ways Canadians (or others) can improve their ability to concentrate. A study from the University of Granada in 2013 suggested that getting more physical activity could increase the length of a person's attention span. The Association for Psychological Science found in 2010 that people who meditate could improve their ability to concentrate.

If those suggestions don't seem to work, or you're just too lazy to try, there are apps that can cut off access to the usual distractions. Cold Turkey, for example, blocks access to social media and other time-wasting programs like "Solitaire" during those all-important work hours.

What worries me is that there aren't any studies saying what we should do to prevent the inevitable goldfish uprising. Think about it. If you lived in a tank in someone's rec room and ate nothing but flakes your whole life, you'd probably feel like finding a way to outsmart your non-glass-encased overlords and rebel.

cnet

lido e editado...

910
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:32:14 »
Eu li na diagonal e reparei que falam nas kardashians. So por isso amanha vou ler com mais atencao.
zark tu les esses artigos todos de kilometro e meio?

não só o li como o editei em menos de cinco minutos, para ficar mais legível no forum.

what the hell is wrong with you people?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRifKEf0xr8

o por é o da direita e o Inc é o da esquerda
do ponto de vista de quem olha para eles...
não, ao contrário....ou vice-versa, não interessa

Z

911
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:27:27 »
Quem é que é essa entidade que dita "o ponto de vista da direita"?


National Review

National Review (N.R.) is a semimonthly magazine founded by author William F. Buckley, Jr., in 1955 and based in New York City. It describes itself as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for conservative news, commentary, and opinion."

Z

Eeeeee?
 
Essa forma de ver "todos" como sendo comandados por alguns só existe na esquerda, Lark. Não apliques isso a toda a gente. Qualquer pessoa minimamente "libertária" pensa pela sua cabeça antes de receber ordens do comitê central.
 
-------
 
Em todo o caso é melhor o tópico voltar ao Musk.

ok, ainda bem que não te identificas com o que eles defendem.
É, realmente, atrozmente nauseante.

Z

912
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:24:44 »
Why Critics Love to Hate Elon Musk

In Citizen Kane, the newspaper tycoon protagonist evaluates the worth of his enterprise, wearily telling an interrogator, “It’s no trick to make a lot of money. If all you want to do is make a lot of money.”

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a public figure examine the real worth of his enterprise in more than strictly financial terms, and challenge the notion that success via wealth was self-explanatory and an end in itself. Elon Musk captures the zeitgesit; he’s the first superstar CEO of the post “Occupy Wall Street” era.

It would be understating the case to say that he has made a lot of money. Forbes estimates Elon Musk’s net worth at $6.7-billion. The South Africa-born American is the CEO of three companies that would be attracting attention even if each company was helmed by a different person.

That he alone is leading all three (Tesla, Solar City, SpaceX) and also proposing a new form of ultra-high speed travel referred to only as the “Hyperloop” puts him into a new category of CEO. CEOs are referred to as visionaries so often, the word has almost become as degraded as “awesome”.

So it’s to be expected that when the real deal comes along, maximum skepticism follows, otherwise known as haters.
Musk’s companies experienced a near-failure in 2008-2009, accompanied by a public divorce and various lawsuits directed at him by disgruntled former colleagues and employees.

So the dynamic of many articles about Musk tend to mention his mating habits as well as his accomplishments and ambitions. However, even the most negative articles that present a laundry list of petty annoyances typically finish, “What America needs right now are visionaries, and this guy is a visionary.” So the question is, can the vision be borne out in reality? Especially since so many of Musk’s goals border on science fiction for many people?

The narrative around Musk runs that he made a stupendous amount of money from the sale of PayPal (he is one of the famed “PayPal mafia”) and then used that money to found a rocket company with the eventual aim of making humanity “a spacefaring civilization”.

This would quite rightly set off most people’s flake alert. Except that Musk is no flake. The only possible knock against him would be if he truly had more money than brains. But he appears to have ample reserves of both.

After selling his first company, Zip2, to Compaq for $307 million in cash and $34 million in stock options in 1999, he faced the option of cashing out at an early age and enjoying his money. But the mere fact of slightly disrupting classified ads with the success of Zip2 didn’t go far enough for someone who saw the transformative possibilities of “the internet, sustainable energy and expanding life beyond Earth”, and that he might personally be in a position to affect the outcomes of all three.

Developing and selling PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion in 2002 would seem as great an exit as one could reasonably hope for. But Musk immediately began pondering another magnitude of exit: to Mars.

At the lowest moment of Musk’s fortunes at that time, though, the spectacle of the somehow still employable Jim Cramer screaming about Tesla’s IPO on his infotainment TV show “Mad Money”, “You don’t want to own this stock! You don’t want to own this car! Heck, you don’t even want to rent the thing!” should have been enough to persuade anyone that Musk was bound to succeed, and succeed massively.

Before coming back relatively spectacularly in 2013, Musk’s ventures experienced some extremely bad publicity and barely avoided spectacular failure. In his Ted interview, Musk says about SpaceX, “It was a close call. Things almost didn’t work out. We came close to failure. But we managed to get past that point in 2008.” Things looked very dark until the moment of Tesla’s IPO in 2009.

After achieving a 99/100 score from Consumer Reports for the Tesla Model S, Musk pointed out at Tesla’s most recent shareholder meeting that not only was Tesla the best selling electric car in the United States in Q1 2013, but sales were more than all other electric cars combined. Part of that total revenue has to do with the Model S’ high cost. Musk intends to bring a lower-cost car to market to capitalize on the success of the Model S. Also, the Model S will become available in Europe in Q3 and Asia at the end of the year.

Journalists aren’t the only professionals whose feathers Musk has ruffled. The National Auto Dealers Association (NADA) has also voiced opposition to Tesla’s plans for direct sales to consumers, thereby cutting them out of the process. Musk points to studies that indicate that consumers want the opportunity to buy directly, and also to the viral marketing model Tesla currently relies upon, in which Tesla’s best salespeople tend to be Tesla owners.

A shocking thing happens at approximately the 52-minute mark of Tesla’s shareholder meeting video. The seemingly unflappable, permanently in-control Musk begins to cry in response to a shareholder’s question regarding opposition from NADA.

Musk stakes out the parameters of a future battle, pointing out that NADA, which is very influential at the state level, makes most of its profit on automobile service. “Our philosophy with service is not to make a profit on service. I think it’s terrible to make a profit on service.” Choking back tears, Musk portrays NADA’s recent crowing over its victory against the sale of Tesla in freedom-loving Texas as “perverting democracy”.

“I think they’re making a big mistake,” he says, recovering from his tearful episode, before taking the next audience question.

What also drives up the cost of the Tesla is that the fuelling stations and the development of so-called superchargers are being built in to the current purchase price of the car.
This is a cost that most auto manufacturers don’t have to consider. It would be like GM paying to construct its own gas stations. But the development of the supercharger infrastructure is key to the future success of the Tesla when the next more affordable iteration of the car becomes available.

No doubt, when gas stations and their various associations and lobby groups realize that an affordable Tesla and other brands of electric cars will be able to plug in to Tesla’s supercharger grid, they will also fight.

On the supercharger network and other manufacturers’ possible usage, Musk is refreshingly open. “We always want it to be the case that the supercharger is free once you’ve bought the car. So we don’t want to have this kind of pay every time you arrive thing. I think it’s just so much easier for you to just build it into the cost and you arrive and you just never have to deal with anything.

So as long as other manufacturers are willing to take that same approach, at Tesla we’re more than happy to share the network. I’ve seen some articles like, ‘Is it Tesla’s intention to create a walled garden or something like that?’ And that is not at all the case. This is not some nefarious marketing ploy. It is simply that we need to have high-speed charging in order to have convenient long-distance travel.

And if we were to wait around for everyone to agree on the right approach, it would never happen. So we have to just go out there and do it, and then other manufacturers can join us, or they can copy us, or they can maybe think of something better.” He shrugs, as if to suggest that whether other auto manufacturers do or don’t go along with his plan makes no difference to him, and takes the next question.

Asked about promoting the Tesla brand, Musk responds with what has become his typical anti-CEO candor. “You know, I’m not actually the hugest believer in brand, or in marketing for that matter. Like, there was some recent article about how I’m such a great marketer. And I say the stupidest things. That can’t possibly be true. I think the real way that brand happens is if you make good products.”

Last week, Musk quashed speculation via Twitter that SpaceX would be pursuing an IPO any time soon: “Mars requires developing complex technology over a decade+, but market cares about next 3 months. Result would be conflicting priorities.”

Asked about what makes him tick, Musk has responded, “To get through life, most people are reasoning by analogy, which is basically copying what other people do, but with slight variations. And you have to do that, otherwise you wouldn’t be able to get through the day. But when you want to do something new, you have to apply the physics approach.”

It should strike anyone employing off-the-shelf critical faculties that the actual solutions to humanity’s problems (global warming to name but one) are going to involve the acceptance of responsibility, to step out in front of the pack and think beyond the next election or news cycle. Various people, such as industry lobby groups and perhaps even government, will stand in the way of such people. Elon Musk appears to be one of very few willing to accept that challenge who has the means to affect outcomes. You would have to be beholden to one of the self-interested stakeholder groups that oppose him to wish him failure.

Compare the stakes of the failure or success of Musk’s enterprise to, say, Sean Parker’s recent and truly frivolous Game of Thrones-themed wedding. We’ve set the bar pretty low for visionaries. Elon Musk may not be Galileo, or Da Vinci, or Nikola Tesla, for that matter. But I’d bet you a fully-loaded Model S that those men would be met with exactly the same callow skepticism that Musk is now receiving if they were alive and in America today.

fonte

913
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:15:44 »


At the lowest moment of Musk’s fortunes at that time, though, the spectacle of the somehow still employable Jim Cramer screaming about Tesla’s IPO on his infotainment TV show “Mad Money”, “You don’t want to own this stock! You don’t want to own this car! Heck, you don’t even want to rent the thing!” should have been enough to persuade anyone that Musk was bound to succeed, and succeed massively.

914
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:06:39 »
Para mim o que me interessa é liberdade e individualismo, com o colectivismo a surgir essencialmente de opções individuais consensuais ou quase. O resto não me interessa.[/b]

isso vai sendo discutido lá no forum da 3ª divisão.
ainda vamos chegar a algumas conclusões surpreendentes.

tipo..... there is no such thing as collectivism beyond Ayn Rand's novels?
quando se baseia uma ideologia inteira numa coisa que só existe nas novelas....e más novelas...

L

915
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 01:01:30 »
Quem é que é essa entidade que dita "o ponto de vista da direita"?


National Review

National Review (N.R.) is a semimonthly magazine founded by author William F. Buckley, Jr., in 1955 and based in New York City. It describes itself as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for conservative news, commentary, and opinion."

Z

916
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 00:47:15 »
que tal?
you can't make this stuff up!

Z

Se fosse menos texto eu lia, mas adivinharia que se está a pegar em meia dúzia de exemplos e a generalizar.

Mas só com estatísticas decentes, aplcadas ao universo dos votantes, se poderia tirar isto a limpo.


pois, não leste nada.
é o ponto de vista da direita sobre a ciência, santinho...

L

917
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 00:32:03 »
que tal?
you can't make this stuff up!

Z

918
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 00:31:15 »
esta é a atitude que a direita tem para com a ciência. é uma artigo da National Review, conhecido magazine conservador.

A mim quase que fez vomitar. A ti não sei.

Neil deGrasse Tyson and America’s nerd problem

EDITOR’S NOTE: The following piece is adapted from an article that appeared in the July 21, 2014, issue of National Review.
‘My great fear,” Neil deGrasse Tyson told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes in early June, “is that we’ve in fact been visited by intelligent aliens but they chose not to make contact, on the conclusion that there’s no sign of intelligent life on Earth.”

In response to this rather standard little saw, Hayes laughed as if he had been trying marijuana for the first time. All told, one suspects that Tyson was not including either himself or a fellow traveler such as Hayes as inhabitants of Earth, but was instead referring to everybody who is not in their coterie. That, alas, is his way. An astrophysicist and evangelist for science, Tyson currently plays three roles in our society: He is the director of the Hayden Planetarium at the New York Science Museum; the presenter of the hip new show Cosmos; and, most important of all perhaps — albeit through no distinct fault of his own — he is the fetish and totem of the extraordinarily puffed-up “nerd” culture that has of late started to bloom across the United States.

One part insecure hipsterism, one part unwarranted condescension, the two defining characteristics of self-professed nerds are (a) the belief that one can discover all of the secrets of human experience through differential equations and (b) the unlovely tendency to presume themselves to be smarter than everybody else in the world.

Prominent examples include MSNBC’s Melissa Harris-Perry, Rachel Maddow, Steve Kornacki, and Chris Hayes; Vox’s Ezra Klein, Dylan Matthews, and Matt Yglesias; the sabermetrician Nate Silver; the economist Paul Krugman; the atheist Richard Dawkins; former vice president Al Gore; celebrity scientist Bill Nye; and, really, anybody who conforms to the Left’s social and moral precepts while wearing glasses and babbling about statistics.

The pose is, of course, little more than a ruse — our professional “nerds” being, like Mrs. Doubtfire, stereotypical facsimiles of the real thing. They have the patois but not the passion; the clothes but not the style; the posture but not the imprimatur.

Theirs is the nerd-dom of Star Wars, not Star Trek; of Mario Kart and not World of Warcraft; of the latest X-Men movie rather than the comics themselves. A sketch from the TV show Portlandia, mocked up as a public-service announcement, makes this point brutally.

After a gorgeous young woman explains at a bar that she doesn’t think her job as a model is “her thing” and instead identifies as “a nerd” who is “into video games and comic books and stuff,” a dorky-looking man gets up and confesses that he is, in fact, a “real” nerd — someone who wears glasses “to see,” who is “shy,” and who “isn’t wearing a nerd costume for Halloween” but is dressed how he lives.

“I get sick with fear talking to people,” he says. “It sucks.” A quick search of the Web reveals that Portlandia’s writers are not the only people to have noticed the trend. “Science and ‘geeky’ subjects,” the pop-culture writer Maddox observes, “are perceived as being hip, cool and intellectual.” And so people who are, or wish to be, hip, cool, and intellectual “glom onto these labels and call themselves ‘geeks’ or ‘nerds’ every chance they get.”

Which is to say that the nerds of MSNBC and beyond are not actually nerds — with scientific training and all that it entails — but the popular kids indulging in a fad. To a person, they are attractive, accomplished, well paid, and loved, listened to, and cited by a good portion of the general public. Most of them spend their time on television speaking fluently, debating with passion, and hanging out with celebrities.

They attend dinner parties and glitzy social events, and are photographed and put into the glossy magazines. They are flown first class to university commencement speeches and late-night shows and book launches. There they pay lip service to the notion that they are not wildly privileged, and then go back to their hotels to drink $16 cocktails with Bill Maher.

In this manner has a word with a formerly useful meaning been turned into a transparent humblebrag: Look at me, I’m smart. Or, more important, perhaps, Look at me and let me tell you who I am not, which is southern, politically conservative, culturally traditional, religious in some sense, patriotic, driven by principle rather than the pivot tables of Microsoft Excel, and in any way attached to the past.

“Nerd” has become a calling a card — a means of conveying membership of one group and denying affiliation with another. The movement’s king, Neil deGrasse Tyson, has formal scientific training, certainly, as do the handful of others who have become celebrated by the crowd. He is a smart man who has done some important work in popularizing science.

But this is not why he is useful. Instead, he is useful because he can be deployed as a cudgel and an emblem in political argument — pointed to as the sort of person who wouldn’t vote for Ted Cruz. “Ignorance,” a popular Tyson meme holds, “is a virus. Once it starts spreading, it can only be cured by reason. For the sake of humanity, we must be that cure.”

This rather unspecific message is a call to arms, aimed at those who believe wholeheartedly they are included in the elect “we.” Thus do we see unexceptional liberal-arts students lecturing other people about things they don’t understand themselves and terming the dissenters “flat-earthers.” Thus do we see people who have never in their lives read a single academic paper clinging to the mantle of “science” as might Albert Einstein.

Thus do we see residents of Brooklyn who are unable to tell you at what temperature water boils rolling their eyes at Bjørn Lomborg or Roger Pielke Jr. because he disagrees with Harry Reid on climate change. Really, the only thing in these people’s lives that is peer-reviewed are their opinions. Don’t have a Reddit account? Believe in God? Skeptical about the threat of overpopulation? Who are you, Sarah Palin?

First and foremost, then, “nerd” has become a political designation. It is no accident that the president has felt it necessary to inject himself into the game: That’s where the cool kids are. Answering a question about Obama’s cameo on Cosmos, Tyson was laconic. “That was their choice,” he told Grantland. “We didn’t ask them. We didn’t have anything to say about it. They asked us, ‘Do you mind if we intro your show?’ Can’t say no to the president.

So he did.” One wonders how easy it would have proved to say “No” to the president if he had been, say, Scott Walker. Either way, though, that Obama wished to associate himself with the project is instructive. He was launched into the limelight by precisely the sort of people who have DVR’d every episode of Cosmos and who, like the editors of Salon, see it primarily as a means by which they might tweak their ideological enemies; who, as apparently does Sean McElwee, see the world in terms of “Neil deGrasse Tyson vs. the Right (Cosmos, Christians, and the Battle for American Science)”;

and who, like the folks at Vice, advise us all: “Don’t Get Neil deGrasse Tyson Started About the Un-Science-y Politicians Who Are Killing America’s Dreams.” Obama knows this. Look back to his earlier backers and you will see a pattern. These are the people who insisted until they were blue in the face that George W. Bush was a “theocrat” eternally hostile toward “evidence,” and that, despite all information to the contrary, Attorney General Ashcroft had covered up the Spirit of Justice statue at the Department of Justice because he was a prude.

These are the people who will explain to other human beings without any irony that they are part of the “reality-based community,” and who want you to know how aw-shucks excited they are to look through the new jobs numbers. At no time is the juxtaposition between the claim and the reality more clear than during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, which ritzy and opulent celebration of wealth, influence, and power the nation’s smarter progressive class has taken to labeling the “Nerd Prom.”

It is clear why people who believe themselves to be providing a voice for the powerless and who routinely lecture the rest of us about the evils of income inequality would wish to reduce in stature a party that would have made Trimalchio blush: It is devastating to their image. Just as Hillary Clinton has noticed of late that her extraordinary wealth and ostentatious lifestyle conflict with her populist mien, the New Class recognizes the danger that its private behavior poses to its public credibility.

There is, naturally, something a little off about selected members of the Fifth Estate yukking it up with those whom they have been charged with scrutinizing — all while rappers and movie stars enjoy castles of champagne and show off their million-dollar dresses. And so the optics must be addressed and the nomenclature of an uncelebrated group cynically appropriated. We’re not the ruling class, the message goes.

We’re just geeks. We’re not the powerful; we’re the outcasts. This isn’t a big old shindig; it’s science. Look, Neil deGrasse Tyson is standing in the Roosevelt Room! * * * Ironically enough, what Tyson and his acolytes have ended up doing is blurring the lines between politics, scholarship, and culture — thereby damaging all three. Tyson himself has expressed bemusement that “entertainment reporters” have been so interested in him. “What does it mean,” he asked, “that Seth MacFarlane, who’s best known for his fart jokes — what does it mean that he’s executive producing” Cosmos?

Well, what it means is that, professionally, Tyson has hit the jackpot. Actual science is slow, unsexy, and assiduously neutral — and it carries about it almost nothing that would interest either the hipsters of Ann Arbor or the Kardashian-soaked titillaters over at E! Politics pretending to be science, on the other hand, is current, and it is chic. It’s useful, too.

For all of the hype, much of the fadlike fetishization of “Big Data” is merely the latest repackaging of old and tired progressive ideas about who in our society should enjoy the most political power. Outside of our laboratories, “it’s just science!” is typically a dodge — a bullying tactic designed to hide a crushingly boring orthodox progressivism behind the veil of dispassionate empiricism and to pretend that Hayek’s observation that even the smartest of central planners can never have the information they would need to centrally plan was obviated by the invention of the computer.

If politics should be determined by pragmatism, and the pragmatists are all on the left . . . well, you do the math. All over the Internet, Neil deGrasse Tyson’s face is presented next to words that he may or may not have spoken. “Other than being a scientist,” he says in one image, “I’m not any other kind of -ist. These -ists and -isms are philosophies; they’re philosophical portfolios that people attach themselves to and then the philosophy does the thinking for you instead of you doing the thinking yourself.”

Translation: All of my political and moral judgments are original, unlike those of the rubes who subscribe to ideologies, philosophies, and religious frameworks. My worldview is driven only by the data. This is nonsense. Progressives not only believe all sorts of unscientific things — that Medicaid, the VA, and Head Start work; that school choice does not; that abortion carries with it few important medical questions; that GM crops make the world worse; that one can attribute every hurricane, wildfire, and heat wave to “climate change”; that it’s feasible that renewable energy will take over from fossil fuels anytime soon — but also do their level best to block investigation into any area that they consider too delicate.

You’ll note that the typical objections to the likes of Charles Murray and Paul McHugh aren’t scientific at all, but amount to asking lamely why anybody would say something so mean. Still, even were they paragons of inquiry, the instinct would remain insidious. The scientific process is an incredible thing, but it provides us with information rather than with ready-made political or moral judgments. Anyone who privileges one value over another (liberty over security, property rights over redistribution) is by definition indulging an “-ism.”

Anyone who believes that the Declaration of Independence contains “self-evident truths” is signing on to an “ideology.” Anyone who goes to bat for any form of legal or material equality is expressing the end results of a philosophy. Perhaps the greatest trick the Left ever managed to play was to successfully sell the ancient and ubiquitous ideas of collectivism, lightly checked political power, and a permanent technocratic class as being “new,” and the radical notions of individual liberty, limited government, and distributed power as being “reactionary.”

A century ago, Woodrow Wilson complained that the checks and balances instituted by the Founders were outdated because they had been contrived before the telephone was invented. Now, we are to be liberated by the microchip and the Large Hadron Collider, and we are to have our progress assured by ostensibly disinterested analysts. I would recommend that we not fall for it. Our technology may be sparkling and our scientists may be the best in the world, but our politics are as they ever were. Marie Antoinette is no more welcome in America if she dresses up in a Battlestar Galactica uniform and self-deprecatingly joins Tumblr. Sorry, America. Science is important. But these are not the nerds you’re looking for.

nationalreview

919
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-20 00:17:41 »
A mim parece-me muito mais comum entre a esquerda abominar matemática, contas, e por inerência, ciência

hmmm??
de onde é que tiraste isso?

Z

920
Off-Topic / Re: Musk et al
« em: 2015-05-19 23:57:45 »
Buy a TESLA  ;)

porque não buy TSLA?
quantos anos vão ser preciso estarem errados para o admitirem?
se formos ver sei lá... inflação e dabasement da moeda, já vamos em sete and counting.
vão estar sete anos do lado errado da TSLA?

L

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