Forum Think Finance - Bolsa e Forex
Geral => Comunidade de Traders => Tópico iniciado por: valves1 em 2014-01-15 22:44:17
-
The start of 2014 marks ten years since we began fretting about global imbalances, and specifically about the chronic trade and current-account imbalances of the United States and China. A decade later, we can happily declare that the era of global imbalances is over. So now is the time to draw the right lessons from that period.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphAmerica’s current-account deficit, which was an alarming 5.8% of GDP as recently as 2006, has now shrunk to just 2.7% of GDP – a level that the US can easily finance from its royalty income and returns on prior foreign investments without incurring additional foreign debt. Even more impressive, China’s current-account surplus, which reached an extraordinary 10% of GDP in 2007, is now barely 2.5% of national income.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThere are still a few countries with worrisomely large surpluses and deficits. Germany and Turkey stand out. But Germany’s 6%-of-GDP surplus is mainly a problem for Europe, while Turkey’s 7.4% deficit is mainly a problem for Turkey. In other words, theirs are not global problems.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphBack in 2004, there were two schools of thought on global imbalances. The Dr. Pangloss school dismissed them as benign – a mere reflection of emerging economies’ demand for dollar reserves, which only the US could provide, and American consumers’ insatiable appetite for cheap merchandise imports. Trading safe assets for cheap merchandise was the best of all worlds. It was a happy equilibrium that could last indefinitely.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphBy contrast, adherents of the Dr. Doom school warned that global imbalances were an accident waiting to happen. At some point, emerging-market demand for US assets would be sated. Worse, emerging markets would conclude that US assets were no longer safe. Financing for America’s current-account deficit would dry up. The dollar would crash. Financial institutions would be caught wrong-footed, and a crisis would result.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphWe now know that both views were wrong. Global imbalances did not continue indefinitely. As China satisfied its demand for safe assets, it turned to riskier foreign investments. It began rebalancing its economy from saving to consumption and from exports to domestic demand.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe US, meanwhile, acknowledged the dangers of excessive debt and leverage. It began taking steps to reduce its indebtedness and increase its savings. To accommodate this change in spending patterns, the dollar weakened, enabling the US to export more. The renminbi, meanwhile, strengthened, reflecting Chinese residents’ increased desire to consume.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThere was a crisis, to be sure, but it was not a crisis of global imbalances. Although the US had plenty of financial problems, financing its external deficit was not one of them. On the contrary, the dollar was one of the few clear beneficiaries of the crisis, as foreign investors, desperate for liquidity, piled into US Treasury bonds.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe principal culprits in the crisis were, rather, lax supervision and regulation of US financial institutions and markets, which allowed unsound practices and financial excesses to build up. China did not cause the financial crisis; America did (with help from other advanced economies).
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThis is not to deny the enabling role of international capital flows. But the flows that mattered were not the net flows of capital from the rest of the world that financed America’s current-account deficit. Rather, they were the gross flows of finance from the US to Europe that allowed European banks to leverage their balance sheets, and the large, matching flows of money from European banks into toxic US subprime-linked securities. Both critics and defenders of global imbalances almost entirely overlooked these gross flows in both directions across the North Atlantic.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphThe next time that global imbalances develop, analysts will – we must hope – know to look beneath their surface. But will there be a next time? A couple of years ago, forecasters were confident that global imbalances would reemerge once the crisis passed. That now seems unlikely: Neither the US nor China is going back to its pre-crisis growth rate or spending pattern.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphNor are earlier trade balances about to reemerge. America’s trade position will be strengthened by the shale-gas revolution, which promises energy self-sufficiency, and by increases in productivity that auger further re-shoring of manufacturing production.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphEmerging markets, for their part, have learned that export surpluses are no guarantee of rapid growth. Nor do large international reserves guarantee financial stability. There are better ways to enhance stability, from strengthening prudential supervision to taxing and controlling destabilizing capital flows and letting the exchange rate adjust.
CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraphAll of this suggests that the accumulation of foreign reserves by emerging and developing countries – another phenomenon over which much ink has been spilled – may be about to peak. Then it will be just another problem laid to rest
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/barry-eichengreen-notes-that-a-decade-after-external-imbalances-emerged-as-a-supposed-threat-to-the-global-economy--the-problem-has-disappeared#QXMvclf6sep0QiKg.99 (http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/barry-eichengreen-notes-that-a-decade-after-external-imbalances-emerged-as-a-supposed-threat-to-the-global-economy--the-problem-has-disappeared#QXMvclf6sep0QiKg.99)
-
Muito bom...
Registo esta frase "This is not to deny the enabling role of international capital flows. But the flows that mattered were not the net flows of capital from the rest of the world that financed America’s current-account deficit. Rather, they were the gross flows of finance from the US to Europe that allowed European banks to leverage their balance sheets, and the large, matching flows of money from European banks into toxic US subprime-linked securities. Both critics and defenders of global imbalances almost entirely overlooked these gross flows in both directions across the North Atlantic ".
Bons negócios
-
The start of 2014 marks ten years since we began fretting about global imbalances, and specifically about the chronic trade and current-account imbalances of the United States and China. A decade later, we can happily declare that the era of global imbalances is over. So now is the time to draw the right lessons from that period.
Isso significa o fim do padrão-dólar. Pois os EUA têm de ter um défict externo permanente para que a divisa do comércio mundial não seja tight e para que assim o resto do mundo não tenha de viver em recessão [dilema de Triffin].
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=15509;image)
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=15507;image)
Country foreign exchange reserves minus external debt
Ora isso não vai acontecer, pois, ao contrário dos tempos de Paul Volker, o resto do mundo agora têm moedas alternativas prontas para o comércio mundial, nomeadamente o euro, ou seja, o euro encravou a vávula de segurança da panela de pressão conhecida por padrão-dólar, pois já não é possível subir as taxas de juro e manter o resto do mundo sujeito a essa austeridade externa ao mesmo tempo a fim de que o resto do mundo reganhe "confiança" no dólar.
Resumindo, o euro tornou a saída da lamparina de sentido único, ou seja, uma vez o génio [da confiança no e uso do dólar] saído da lâmpada, jamais lá pode voltar a entrar.
É claro que depois vêm os pêssegos e as natas, mas isso é depois da transição, não é durante...
-
Hermes,
consideras nessa análise o facto de que devido às políticas europeias... o pessoal que cá está tenta colocar dinheiro fora do Euro e os de fora não o colocam cá?
Eu acho que neste momento a confiança está no dólar.
-
Hermes,
consideras nessa análise o facto de que devido às políticas europeias... o pessoal que cá está tenta colocar dinheiro fora do Euro e os de fora não o colocam cá?
Eu acho que neste momento a confiança está no dólar.
Olha que colocar o dinheiro fora dos países problemáticos e colocar o dinheiro fora do euro não é a mesma coisa. Já pensaste nisso?...
A "confiança" ainda pode estar no dólar, mas não é lá assim muita por parte do principal credor (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,725.msg94688.html#msg94688), nem O Príncipe (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,1879.0.html) está satisfeito [note-se que se aproxima uma sucessão dinástica na Arábia Saudita].
O pior [ou melhor, dependendo do lado do Atlântico onde se está] é que já não há mais um mecanismo para reganhar a confiança no padrão-dólar.
-
Registo esta frase "This is not to deny the enabling role of international capital flows. But the flows that mattered were not the net flows of capital from the rest of the world that financed America’s current-account deficit. Rather, they were the gross flows of finance from the US to Europe that allowed European banks to leverage their balance sheets, and the large, matching flows of money from European banks into toxic US subprime-linked securities. Both critics and defenders of global imbalances almost entirely overlooked these gross flows in both directions across the North Atlantic ".
Eu acho que a expansao do comercio internacional de uma forma desiquilibrada provocou sem duvida um mar de liquidez que propiciou um mercado para esse tipo de divida, o que o texto pretende fazer crer e que esse problema ( excesso de liquidez ) estava centrado na Europa e com esse ponto eu por acaso nao estou muito de acordo;
apartir de uma certa altura o excesso de liquidez era simplesmente um fenomeno global; os mercados emergentes e china tambem estvam cheios de USD.
e claro essa abundancia de liquidez propiciou um mercado para esse tipo tipo de divida;
euro encravou a vávula de segurança da panela de pressão conhecida por padrão-dólar, pois já não é possível subir as taxas de juro e manter o resto do mundo sujeito a essa austeridade externa ao mesmo tempo a fim de que o resto do mundo reganhe "confiança" no dólar.
sem duvida no entanto a questao e de perceber se ao diluir esses " ganhos de senhoriagem " por um conjunto de moedas
nao anulara os beneficios intrinsecos a esse tipo de ganhos;
-
sem duvida no entanto a questao e de perceber se ao diluir esses " ganhos de senhoriagem " por um conjunto de moedas
nao anulara os beneficios intrinsecos a esse tipo de ganhos;
Entre pagar senhoriagem e receber senhoriagem, qual é a dúvida?
Além disso, não é só a moeda, é tb o mercado de produtos e serviços que para ela existe sem se ter de cambiar para uma terceira moeda. Aí, só o dólar e o euro [e no futuro o yuan] satisfazem esse critério, pelo que a senhoriagem é maior do que tu pensavas.
-
Entre pagar senhoriagem e receber senhoriagem, qual é a dúvida?
o beneficio vai sobretudo deixar de pagar senhoriagem, porque se e verdade que o fed perdeu o poder de influencia em termos de politica monetaria nos moldes em que fazia esse poder nao foi transferido para o BCE
provavelmente no futuro se nao ja no presente ninguem estara em condicoes de ter esse poder de subir as taxas de juro e manter o resto do mundo sujeito a austeridade para que este reganhe "confiança"
Além disso, não é só a moeda, é tb o mercado de produtos e serviços que para ela existe sem se ter de cambiar para uma terceira moeda. Aí, só o dólar e o euro [e no futuro o yuan] satisfazem esse critério, pelo que a senhoriagem é maior do que tu pensavas.
[/quote]
eu penso que estas a falar nos custos de transacao e ai os ganhos sao efectivamente interessantes
-
o beneficio vai sobretudo deixar de pagar senhoriagem, porque se e verdade que o fed perdeu o poder de influencia em termos de politica monetaria nos moldes em que fazia esse poder nao foi transferido para o BCE
provavelmente no futuro se nao ja no presente ninguem estara em condicoes de ter esse poder de subir as taxas de juro e manter o resto do mundo sujeito a austeridade para que este reganhe "confiança"
Não pagar senhoriagem, é um benefício. A Eurolândia deixou de pagar em 2001, a China chegou nessa altura a barriga ao balcão e deixou de pagar em 2011. Por senhoriagem falo em termos directos [compra crescente de dívida do tio Sam] para segurar o padrão-dólar, pois indirectamente o resto do mundo continua a pagar a senhoriagem do efeito de rede no comércio mundial, quanto mais não seja pela necessidade de comprar petróleo com dólares.
Por fim, a confiança é um fenómeno não linear... e isso deve explicar a razão do ouro ser o primeiro activo no balanço do BCE propalado urbi et orbi a cada 3 meses, cf. ConFinStat (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2014/html/index.en.html), pois a confiança tem de voltar para se voltar a ter comércio internacional.
-
Não pagar senhoriagem, é um benefício.
evidentemente, mas olha que no caso de Portugal eu tenho as minhas duvidas se nao valeria apena pagar a senhoriagem;
uma dos grandes argumentos em favor da manutencao no Euro seria o evitar uma desvalorizao interna no valor activos
e com excepcao de bancos e por via destes alguns sectores que tem credito infinito todos os outros sectores da economia
na escaparam a uma desvalorizao interna;
-
Não pagar senhoriagem, é um benefício.
evidentemente, mas olha que no caso de Portugal eu tenho as minhas duvidas se nao valeria apena pagar a senhoriagem;
uma dos grandes argumentos em favor da manutencao no Euro seria o evitar uma desvalorizao interna no valor activos
e com excepcao de bancos e por via destes alguns sectores que tem credito infinito todos os outros sectores da economia
na escaparam a uma desvalorizao interna;
Ena que megalomania! Portugal não tem dimensão para alterar o futuro dos EUA. :D
Por outro lado, porque é que o resto do mundo não deixou cair o dólar na década de 80? O que é que o resto do mundo não queria que acontecesse? Porque é que a Europa [Bancos Centrais] segurou o dólar entre 1980 e 2001 comprando dívida pública americana a fim de equilibrar o déficit americano e depois deixou de o fazer? Porque é que a China se substituiu à Europa na tarefa de segurar o dólar entre 2000 e 2011 comprando dívida pública americana e tb já deixou de o fazer?
-
Não pagar senhoriagem, é um benefício.
evidentemente, mas olha que no caso de Portugal eu tenho as minhas duvidas se nao valeria apena pagar a senhoriagem;
uma dos grandes argumentos em favor da manutencao no Euro seria o evitar uma desvalorizao interna no valor activos
e com excepcao de bancos e por via destes alguns sectores que tem credito infinito todos os outros sectores da economia
na escaparam a uma desvalorizao interna;
Ena que megalomania! Portugal não tem dimensão para alterar o futuro dos EUA. :D
Por outro lado, porque é que o resto do mundo não deixou cair o dólar na década de 80? O que é que o resto do mundo não queria que acontecesse? Porque é que a Europa [Bancos Centrais] segurou o dólar entre 1980 e 2001 comprando dívida pública americana a fim de equilibrar o déficit americano e depois deixou de o fazer? Porque é que a China se substituiu à Europa na tarefa de segurar o dólar entre 2000 e 2011 comprando dívida pública americana e tb já deixou de o fazer?
hermes, quem está a segurar o dollar ? O FED? O Príncipe?
Thanks
-
Jeab, nos anos 70 tinhas dois ministros das finanças, um do Kuwait e outro da Arábia Saudita a dizerem que “oil in the ground is better than money in the bank” (http://www.google.com/search?hl=xx-bork&num=100&q=%22oil+in+the+ground+is+better+than+money+in+the+bank%22). É de esperar que a razão para tal afirmação não tenha mudado, além disso é de esperar mudanças que terão de ocorrer nos próximos anos decorrentes da sucessão dinástica na Arábia Saudita.
Por fim, quem está a segurar o dólar o tio Sam [a diferença não é inócua] é a FED com quantitative easings permanentes [a Eurolândia e a China deram o pontapé no banco e mais ninguém chegou a barriga ao balcão]. A FED não pode permitir que o tio Sam feche o estaminé [i.e. morra], pois é despedida e o tio Sam toma conta daquilo mesmo para obter o dinheiro necessário à sua sobrevivência [pagar aos seus assalariados / justificar a sua existência].
-
Por outro lado, porque é que o resto do mundo não deixou cair o dólar na década de 80? O que é que o resto do mundo não queria que acontecesse? Porque é que a Europa [Bancos Centrais] segurou o dólar entre 1980 e 2001 comprando dívida pública americana a fim de equilibrar o déficit americano e depois deixou de o fazer? Porque é que a China se substituiu à Europa na tarefa de segurar o dólar entre 2000 e 2011 comprando dívida pública americana e tb já deixou de o fazer?
na minha opiniao para muitos paises da Europa e um processo virtuoso estar numa moeda forte,
para alguns paises do Sul da Europa nao sei se o preco a pagar compensa o tal efeito positivo de deixar de pagar senhoriagem; pode ser que no futuro o beneficio seja mais visivel;
-
na minha opiniao para muitos paises da Europa e um processo virtuoso estar numa moeda forte,
para alguns paises do Sul da Europa nao sei se o preco a pagar compensa o tal efeito positivo de deixar de pagar senhoriagem; pode ser que no futuro o beneficio seja mais visivel;
O efeito começará a ser visível no dia de finados do padrão-dólar, pois a partir dessa altura o euro passará a cobrar a senhoriagem do efeito de rede e mais nenhuma, pois o euro resolveu o dilema de Triffin [quando Triffin descobriu o dilema, voltou para a Europa para desenhar o euro de forma a que fosse himune ao dilema] conforme explicado no discurso de aceitação do 1º presidente do BCE:
The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.
Source: [url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url])
E o efeito começará a ser visível, pois a senhoriagem [mesmo a actual] é distribuída por cada banco central accionista na proporção das respectivas cotas e depois cada banco central paga os lucros ao respectivo suberano.
Naturalmente que o ouro tem um papel fundamental no desenho do euro, mas não é o de vir a servir como lastro, i.e. um anacrónico câmbio fixo com o ouro [aka padrão-ouro], mas sim um câmbio variável com a divisa do confiável e conservador Banco Central da Natureza.
-
ou seja, vai ser visivel mas nao e para ja ...
pois entendo esse teu pensamento de quem se pode dar ao luxo de pensar a tao grande trecho ...
trabalhas na banca ou nalgum sector com credito infinito em que a falencia nao e problema ?
-
Louvo o teu refinado sentido de humor sobre o pensamento a longo prazo da banca! :D
Falas do requiem do padrão-dólar e ao mesmo tempo achas que não se vai passar nada nos valores das pessoas e na sua interacção com os bancos e com o dinheiro... então pensa lá outra vez.
-
eu nao disse que nao vao haver mudancas ...
e repara que nem sequer disse que Portugal nao iria ser beneficiado quando isso acontecer embora eu acho que os beneficios nao terao qualquer semelhanca com os que vemos anteriormente no USD; (uma vez que o Euro tendera a partilhar esse espaco com outras moedas );
A grande questao e quanta pessoas e que foram e serao preciso sacrificar mais ate chegarmos a esses beficios que ainda por mais serao diluidos ?
-
A grande questao e quanta pessoas e que foram e serao preciso sacrificar mais ate chegarmos a esses beficios que ainda por mais serao diluidos ?
Valves, a força da gravidade não pode ser ignorada por muito tempo... por outro lado as pessoas foram / são tão sacrificadas que até o resto dos europeus lhes amorteceram a queda. Querias mais o quê? O cuzinho lavado com água de rosas? É que numa democracia grega clássica entre pares isso não é lá assim muito plausível.
-
que até o resto dos europeus lhes amorteceram a queda. Querias mais o quê?
o facto de a queda ter sido amortecida nao e sinonimo de que se tenha escolhido o melhor caminho em termos de politica monetaria;
-
Uma boa leitura para todos, e gostava, se possível, de um comentário do Hermes.
The Paradox of the Dollar & the Crash (http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/26/the-paradox-of-the-dollar-the-crash/)
-
Uma boa leitura para todos, e gostava, se possível, de um comentário do Hermes.
The Paradox of the Dollar & the Crash ([url]http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/26/the-paradox-of-the-dollar-the-crash/[/url])
The dollar haters remain fixated on supply is supposed to determine value with a very myopic view that never considers DEMAND. They simply cannot understand why the dollar has not collapsed and in turn cling to some wild all-powerful conspiracy behind the strength of the dollar.
O supply side é importante e o pecado original já leva um hoverhang de money printing de 40 anos, apesar disso a hiperinflação ainda não se materializou porque a máxima de seguir o dinheiro é igualmente importante, pois até 2011 o resto do mundo segurou o dólar [primeiro os bancos centrais europeus para construirem a sua alternativa ao dólar até 2001, depois os chineses que viram o sinal na parede (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Agreement_on_Gold) e que compraram tempo (e por isso dólares) até 2011] subsidiando o tio Sam. Até que disseram basta e deixaram ao cuidado da FED p(r)intar o verde para quem vier e der.
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=5989;image)
Vejamos ao microscópio como as coisas estão a correr do lado do apoio oficial [suporte estrutural] do dólar [compra líquida de treasuries do tio Sam por bancos centrais, excluindo particulares] e compras totais [líquidas] por extrangeiros [suporte]:
| ano | déficit comercial | suporte estrutural | suporte |
| 2010 | $498B | $456B | $687.5B |
| 2011 | $560B | $426B | $566.3B |
| 2012 | $540B | $386B | $548.0B |
| 2013 | $485B* | $24B** | $79.7** |
* Valor estimado;
** Valores extrapolados de Outubro para Dezembro.
Segue-se um gráfico para ajudar a visualizar o suporte estrutural:
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=15699;image)
E outro para ajudar a visualizar o suporte:
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=15701;image)
É apenas uma queda de 85% em 2013 e uma de 95% contabilizando apenas o apoio estrutural.
Pulling back the curtain and just following the money regardless who is involved, paradoxically, reveals that the U.S. market crash of 2007 into 2009 actually further solidified the dollar’s global dominance even as gold was rising.
Não é assim tão paradoxal, pois a fuga de papéis com maior risco exige a conversão destes em cash, o que aumenta a procura por cash e por isso o câmbio do dólar.
Despite all the rhetoric, that “flight to quality” U.S. government debt for no matter what you say, the USA remains the world’s safest asset. Interest rates during the crisis indeed turned negative for brief periods of time.
Treasuries de curto prazo são quase tão boas quanto cash, pois são passíveis de se transformarem em cash num curto espaço de tempo, mesmo sem fazer nada, pelo que se aplica o que disse no parágrafo anterior.
He who has the gun makes the rule
A teoria é muito bonita, mas é negada pela realidade histórica. Exemplos dos últimos 100 anos: Reino Unido e URSS. Ou seja, o Martin Armstrong olha para o último império e diz "this time is different", eu olho para todos os outros impérios cobertos pelas areias do tempo e digo "sic transit gloria mundi". Como dizem os anglosaxónicos the problem is when the rubber meets the road, ou seja os soldados só lutam, se lhes pagarem; os fabricantes só fabricam armamento, se lhes pagarem; os trabalhadores só fabricam esse mesmo armamento, se lhes pagarem; os produtores só vendem as matérias primas, se lhes pagarem. Resumindo, o resto do mundo deixou de pagar, cf. gráficos anteriores. Agora é só esperar sentado pelas consequências.
At the end of the day, all the yelling and screaming that the sky was falling crumbled to dust and fell to the floor.
Realmente, tais afirmações são ligeiramente exageradas, pois o ceu ainda está a 5% ou 15% do chão, conforme o ponto de vista. (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif)
Therefore, despite tremendous massive federal borrowing, U.S. debt proved to be in short supply 2007-2009. The Fed’s quantitative easing took billions out of the market at the wrong time when DEMAND was rising further sending rates plummeting.
Bem, aqui o Martin foi no conto da FED, pois esse dinheiro já está todo no mercado, pois o tio Sam não se sentou em cima do dinheiro recebido pela venda das treasuries e foi logo a correr gastá-lo para justificar a sua existência. :D
The Fed’s recent move away from quantitative easing, has signaled that this era of imaginary extraordinarily loose domestic U.S. monetary policy will come to an end.
Das palavras aos actos vai a diferença do tio Sam conseguir justificar a sua existência ou não. A FED está lá para garantir a existência do tio Sam e é o único garante dessa mesma sobrevivência agora que o apio estrutural do resto do mundo se foi.
Acho que não vale a pena continuar a matá-lo mais, pois o atrás dito mata-o bem morto. (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif)
-
Citação de: Martin Armstrong
The Fed’s recent move away from quantitative easing, has signaled that this era of imaginary extraordinarily loose domestic U.S. monetary policy will come to an end.
Das palavras aos actos vai a diferença do tio Sam conseguir justificar a sua existência ou não. A FED está lá para garantir a existência do tio Sam e é o único garante dessa mesma sobrevivência agora que o apio estrutural do resto do mundo se foi.
Acho que não vale a pena continuar a matá-lo mais, pois o atrás dito mata-o bem morto.
bem eu nao vou entrar aqui numa guerra santa contra os Estados unidos dando no entanto de barato que em Geral durante Era que agora termina os Estados unidos viveram acima da suas possibilidades em detrimento de uma serie de paises que viveram abaixo das suas possibilidades como resultado do sistema monetario padrao USD.
No entanto continuo na duvida se afinal Portugal foi um vencedor ou se foi um sacrificado nesta luta monetaria de Gigantes pela supremacia monetaria no mundo ...
-
bem eu nao vou entrar aqui numa guerra santa contra os Estados unidos dando no entanto de barato que em Geral durante Era que agora termina os Estados unidos viveram acima da suas possibilidades em detrimento de uma serie de paises que viveram abaixo das suas possibilidades como resultado do sistema monetario padrao USD.
No entanto continuo na duvida se afinal Portugal foi um vencedor ou se foi um sacrificado nesta luta monetaria de Gigantes pela supremacia monetaria no mundo ...
Veremos. Como já sabemos, who owns the gold, rules.
Graças à herança de Salazar, Portugal ocupa um honroso 7.º lugar em reservas de ouro per capita.
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=15754;image)
-
Veremos. Como já sabemos, who owns the gold, rules.
Mas aqui o factor tempo tambem conta, Portugal ate pode estar a seguir o caminho correcto mas quanto tempo e que vai demorar ate termos uma resposta eu ja nem digo definitiva mas pelo menos mais clara acerca das virtuosidades de estarmos num ambiente monetario exigente ?
recordo-te que 15 anos se passaram sobre a entrada de Portugal neste ambiente monetario e Portugal esta igual ( nao progrediu )
se daqui a 5 anos podermos sem sombra de duvida dizer que " agora esta a compensar "
ja se passaram 20 anos !!!!
nao achas que 20 anos e tempo demais para chegar-se a conclusao que sim agora esta a valer apena ?
repara que nem todos tem o privilegio de assitir o filme na bancada muitos ao longo desses 15/ 20 anos levaram com os ajustamentos todos inerentes a esse facto;
qual e o pais do Mundo que se pode lamentar estar 15 anos a andar de lado seja qual for a base de onde parta ?
-
Veremos. Como já sabemos, who owns the gold, rules.
Mas aqui o factor tempo tambem conta, Portugal ate pode estar a seguir o caminho correcto mas quanto tempo e que vai demorar ate termos uma resposta eu ja nem digo definitiva mas pelo menos mais clara acerca das virtuosidades de estarmos num ambiente monetario exigente ?
recordo-te que 15 anos se passaram sobre a entrada de Portugal neste ambiente monetario e Portugal esta igual ( nao progrediu )
se daqui a 5 anos podermos sem sombra de duvida dizer que " agora esta a compensar "
ja se passaram 20 anos !!!!
nao achas que 20 anos e tempo demais para chegar-se a conclusao que sim agora esta a valer apena ?
repara que nem todos tem o privilegio de assitir o filme na bancada muitos ao longo desses 15/ 20 anos levaram com os ajustamentos todos inerentes a esse facto;
qual e o pais do Mundo que se pode lamentar estar 15 anos a andar de lado seja qual for a base de onde parta ?
Valves, vens aqui cantar o Requiem for Global Imbalances que implica o fim imediato do padrão dólar e depois vens perguntar quanto tempo é que falta? Replay, o segundo é uma consequência imediata do primeiro.
-
Segue-se a resposta do tio Sam à perda de suporte estutural do dólar providenciado pelo resto do mundo. Ênfase adicionada.
Obama Orders Creation of ‘MyRA’ Savings Accounts
By TARA SIEGEL BERNARDJAN.
On 29, 2014
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/your-money/obama-orders-creation-of-myRA-accounts.html[/url] ([url]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/your-money/obama-orders-creation-of-myRA-accounts.html[/url])
Making good on a State of the Union address promise, President Obama on Wednesday ordered the creation of new employer-sponsored savings accounts intended to help more people get started saving for retirement.
The plan, announced on Tuesday night, was in keeping with his theme of providing financial relief to the middle class to try to bridge what is widely acknowledged as a growing income equality gap.
The president also vowed to raise the minimum wage for employees of federal contractors in hopes of spurring other companies to do the same.
In a stop in Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Mr. Obama signed a presidential memorandum and handed it to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. It instructed him to create the new “starter” retirement savings program called “myRA,” a name intended to mimic the I.R.A.’s, or individual retirement accounts, that were first made available to workers in the mid-1970s.
The accounts — which are intended for people who do not now have employer-sponsored savings plans — will operate much like Roth I.R.A.’s, according to Treasury officials. Married couples with modified adjusted gross incomes up to $191,000 and individuals earning up to $129,000 will be able to save up to $15,000 total in after-tax dollars for a maximum of 30 years.
In contrast, Roth I.R.A.’s generally allow employees to save up to $5,500 annually, or $6,500 if they are over age 50, in 2014.
MyRA contributions can be withdrawn tax-free at any time without penalty, though pulling out any earnings will be subject to the same restrictions as the Roth, according to Treasury officials.
Initial investments can be as low as $25, and contributions as little as $5 can be made through payroll deductions; mutual funds often have much higher investment minimums.
There will be only one investment option: The Treasury will create a security fund modeled after the federal employees’ Thrift Savings Plan Government Securities Investment Fund, which pays a variable rate.
For the year that ended in December 2012, it had an average annual return of 1.74 percent. It posted an average annual return of 2.69 percent for the five years that ended in December 2012. There are no fees, the Treasury said.
Unlike the popular 401(k) plans now available to millions of employees at larger companies, account holders cannot lose money. Still, workers also will not have the benefit of potentially higher returns when investing in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bond funds.
But the Treasury’s goal is to get people saving, particularly lower-income workers, who otherwise might not save at all.
“While this will not solve the retirement income shortfall that exists in the U.S., it is a step in the right direction,” said Jamie Hopkins, a professor in the retirement income program at the American College. “These new accounts will open up access to tax-advantaged retirement savings vehicles that many people do not currently have access to because of cost-prohibitive barriers.”
As he pointed out, the maximum workers can save, $15,000, is very limited.
“This is relatively small and for most people won’t make a significant impact on their retirement preparedness all by itself,” he said.
Savers can keep the same account when they change jobs. Once a saver’s myRA reaches $15,000, or after 30 years, the balance will be rolled over to a private sector retirement account. Account holders also have the option of rolling it over earlier.
The new accounts will initially be offered through a pilot program by employers who choose to participate by the end of this year. The accounts are meant to cost employers little or nothing to create since they will neither administer the accounts nor contribute to them. But employers are not required to offer them.
In his speech on Tuesday, the president addressed what many people consider a crisis among retirees who are living longer on smaller and smaller pots of money: “Today, most workers don’t have a pension. A Social Security check often isn’t enough on its own. And while the stock market has doubled over the last five years, that doesn’t help folks who don’t have 401(k)’s.”
-
Valves, vens aqui cantar o Requiem for Global Imbalances que implica o fim imediato do padrão dólar e depois vens perguntar quanto tempo é que falta? Replay, o segundo é uma consequência imediata do primeiro.
Nao e quanto tempo falta para o fim imediato do padrao USD e quanto tempo e que falta para Portugal ver os beneficios de ter uma economia expressa em Euros considerada (oficialmente) uma das moedas de referencia mundial sao coisas diferentes;
e depois em no que toca ao exemplo que consideraste nao foi um exemplo muito feliz porque se os Americanos vao ter que poupar mais para a reforma nao e pelo Euro passar a ser uma moeda de referencia mundial que os Europeus vao ter que se preocupar menos com as mesmas;
Fora ja do tema e pegando no tema das reformas, sinceramente parece-me que o sistemas Americanos e Ingleses no que toca a pensoes sao muito mais saudaveis ou mesmo transparentes que o sistema Portugues ou Espanhol quanto ao que oferecem ou prometem oferecer
-
Esta crise foi um exemplo de ter uma economia expressa em Euros. A economia foi ajudada para diminuir o impacto da crise e não faltaram produtos essenciais nas prateleiras.
Na última crise nos anos 80 houve, por exemplo, racionamento de leite.
-
nao faltaram produtos essenciais nas prateleiras caros quando ajustados ao poder de compra ...
-
Pelo menos os produtos não se esconderam dos compradores, que é o que deverá ao ouro quanto se estiver a cantar o Requiem pelo padrão-dólar.
-
Pelo menos os produtos não se esconderam dos compradores
bom a vista estao sim se considerares isso como uma evolucao em relacao a crise de 80 ...
e provavelmente ate houve o cuidado de nao deixar que situacoes extremas afectassem os mais carenciadas.
Nao sei se conseguiu 100 % de eficacia mas esse cuidado e de louvar a crise foi muito melhor gerida desta vez;
em todo o caso nao me parece aqui que os supermercados tenham tido um papel muito importante dado como ja referi os produtos sao caros quando ajustados ao poder de compra
-
o poder de compra hoje é muito superior ao dos anos 80.
-
Eu acho que a grande diferença esta nos estractos mais baixos que estao apesar de tudo mais apoiadas do que estavam nessa altura;
-
Interessante que a Rússia já tenha começado a afinar a garganta.
Russian lawmakers submit bill restricting ownership of US dollars
13:38 13/11/2013
[url]http://rapsinews.com/judicial_news/20131113/269638203.html[/url] ([url]http://rapsinews.com/judicial_news/20131113/269638203.html[/url])
MOSCOW, November 13 (RAPSI) – Citing the importance of protecting Russian citizens from “the American debt pyramid,” Russian lawmakers from the LDPR Party have submitted to the Russian State Duma a draft bill proposing restrictions on the ownership and circulation of US dollars.
The bill was sponsored by Mikhail Degtyarev, a recent Moscow mayoral hopeful.
The bill proposes setting up a timeframe during which the citizens who own the American currency must spend it, or exchange for rubles or another currency. After that, the banks would have to sell their dollars.
Citizens who keep their cash in US dollars would have to get rid of them if the bill were passed. The bill does not specify a special procedure for seizure of dollar-based assets, but such cash could be seized during inspections by police, tax or customs officials. The bill proposes that over a 30-day period, the dollars will be sold and the sum gained would be returned to the owners.
“The proposed restrictions can be treated as a declaration of a start of a new, dollarless, international currency system, giving the status of the world’s reserve currency to the Russian ruble, and eliminating the resident banks’ dependency on the American dollars,” the memo attached to the bill reads.
“The imposed restrictions on the operations and the circulation of the US dollars will be an important step in protecting Russian’s citizens from the negative influence of the American debt pyramid,” the memo explains.
The Liberal Democratic Party, the political vehicle of veteran populist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, is known for its extravagant slogans and campaign stunts. Degtyarev, 32, earlier made headlines with his proposals to confiscate apartments from excessively noisy owners, and give women two days off work a month during menstruation.
During his run for Moscow Mayor, Degtyarev declared that Russia will spearhead the fight for the forces of Good in the coming Armdgeddon. “I believe that we’ll defeat the Antichrist – I’m sure of it – and that Russia will lead the fight against the Antichrist,” said Degtyarev, who is deputy head of the science and technology committee in the lower house of the Russian parliament.
-
Mas a proposta foi feita por alguém que também tentou que as mulheres mestruadas tivessem dois dias de folga... Não sei se será de confiar nessas posições.
Até porque, nos países em que há proibição de deter moedas fortes, as economias e as moedas estão pela rua da amargura.
-
Olha que a proposta é só para os dólares e está-se a borrifar para todas as outras divisas.
-
ok, mas o proponente não é um exemplo de posições equilibradas.
Se viesse mais da parte do governo era para ter mais em conta.
-
Putin Signs Law on National Card Payment System
17:59 05/05/2014
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140505/189591223/Putin-Signs-Law-on-National-Card-Payment-System.html (http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140505/189591223/Putin-Signs-Law-on-National-Card-Payment-System.html)
MOSCOW, May 5 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill to create a national card payment system, the Kremlin press service said Monday.
The Russian parliament approved the bill last month.
Plans to establish a national card payment processing system emerged in response to Ukraine-related sanctions that saw several Russian banks denied service by global powerhouses Visa and MasterCard, troubling the general public and raising concern over the security of the country’s financial system.
As a reaction to Crimea reunifying with Russia in mid-March, the US introduced targeted sanctions against Russian officials and Rossiya Bank, considered by the US Treasury to be a private bank for many Russian government officials.
Following the move, Visa and MasterCard stopped client operations for cardholders at Rossiya Bank, SMP Bank, as well as their subsidiaries Sobinbank and Investkapitalbank with no prior notice, causing a serious drop in the consumer confidence of the banks.
According to Russian Central Bank estimates, building the infrastructure for the launch of the national payment system may take up to six months, but the distribution of the cards to the public could take up to two years.
Visa and MasterCard have announced they were concerned about the future of their business in Russia in light of the new legislation.
-
UPDATE 2-Russia, wary of sanctions, wants exporters to be paid in roubles
By Gleb Stolyarov
Wed May 14, 2014 11:15am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/russia-exports-rouble-idUSL6N0O01RI20140514 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/russia-exports-rouble-idUSL6N0O01RI20140514)
KALININGRAD, Russia, May 14 (Reuters) - Russia, keen to dodge threatened Western sanctions on its companies over the Ukraine crisis, said on Wednesday it was looking at ways for major state-owned exporters such as energy giants to be paid in roubles.
The idea of major exporters being paid in roubles rather than dollars has been gaining ground in recent weeks in response to sanctions imposed by the West on officials and companies over Russia's annexation of Crimea and an uprising in Ukraine's east.
"There are certain risks, but we are preparing a mechanism, we are working on it," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters during a visit to Russia's Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.
"There are certain costs for exporters and for the buyers of our export products because they will have to buy roubles, and the rouble is now somewhat volatile, plus there is the payment of commission," he said.
In response to Russia's actions in neighbouring Ukraine, the United States has sanctioned 18 Russian companies, preventing U.S. banks from processing their dollar transactions.
Western governments have so far refrained from sanctioning major state companies, but they have threatened more sanctions that could target key sectors such as energy and banking if Russia further escalates the crisis in Ukraine.
Andrei Kostin, chairman of Russia's second largest bank VTB, backed the rouble payment idea last month as a step to reduce the West's influence over the Russian economy.
"NUCLEAR WEAPONRY"
Kostin referred to "calls by high-ranking Western leaders to isolate Russia, practically destroying the Russian banking sector, using modern 'nuclear weaponry' - dollar payments," he told a conference, in comments cited by the Vedomosti newspaper.
Kostin said just three state-owned companies, gas company Gazprom, oil producer Rosneft and arms exporter Rosoboronexport had around $230 billion in exports between them, accounting for 44 percent of all Russian exports.
Gazprom said on Wednesday it was talking to its clients about possibly moving to rouble payments, but that it would not make any change unilaterally.
"We are conducting certain consultations with our clients. This is a bilateral process, one cannot unilaterally present a bill in roubles, it needs to be agreed with clients," spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said.
A spokesman for Rosneft said that "Rosneft is sticking to contract obligations and will conduct payments in the currency of the contract".
In an interview with Russia 24 television on Monday, Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said the government was in discussion with major state-owned companies about the possible transfer of their export contracts into roubles.
"Where there are additional inconveniences that arise from using the national currency, these are not very significant. One definitely needs to put up with these inconveniences because the additional security that arises from this is very significant," Moiseev said, in comments cited on the finance ministry website.
KUDRIN CRITICISM
The proposal for making rouble payments compulsory would not apply to privately-owned exporters, Moiseev said.
Under the proposal, the buyers of major Russian exports would still be able to pay in any currency, Moiseev said, but a bank would need to convert the currency into roubles before it was received by the Russian exporter.
Moiseev described the additional banking transaction costs as "minimal".
"Large London banks, which are oriented towards the London currency market, practically all offer competitive contracts for converting roubles and for hedging rouble currency risk," he said.
However, the idea came under fire from Alexei Kudrin, Russia's influential former finance minister, who said the additional costs it would impose on importers of Russian goods would make Russian exports less competitive.
"The foreign importer will have to buy roubles in Russian banks, spend money on banking commissions and take on the exchange rate risk," Kudrin said in comments to the Kommersant newspaper, cited on his personal website.
He said importers were likely to pass some of these costs on to Russian exporters, leading to lower revenues and taxes.
"We are in tough competition and the requirement to buy with roubles inevitably worsens the position of our companies in tenders," Kudrin said. (Additional reporting by Denis Pinchuk and Katya Golubkova; writing by Jason Bush; editing by Elizabeth Piper and Tom Heneghan)
-
The Fall Of The Dollar Based Monetary System: Russia Puts The Avalanche In Motion
May 15, 2014
http://goldsilverworlds.com/money-currency/fall-of-dollar-based-monetary-system-by-russia/ (http://goldsilverworlds.com/money-currency/fall-of-dollar-based-monetary-system-by-russia/)
It is truly astonishing how much trust people have in the establishment. Almost everyone believes that central planners are focused on defending the best outcome for society. In the same respect, almost everyone nowadays believes that “things are contained.”
Looking under the hood, it appears that several worrisome trends are going on. Examining those trends, one can only conclude that they are building up momentum. But make no mistake, momentum, in this case, is not in the right direction.
We are talking about our monetary system, one of the most invisible and misunderstood concepts related to money and markets. The dollar hegemony, which has held for more than 4 decades, is showing serious cracks. At the center of this trend is Russia. Do not confuse cause and effect. Although mainstream media tries to paint a different picture of things, sharp observers understand that Russia is simply the trigger that will, very likely, set an avalanche in motion. The outcome, in this context, is the fall of the dollar as a world reserve currency.
Trends that are breaking the backbone of the dollar based monetary system
We have detected three different trends by analyzing the events and announcements in the last couple of months. Do not confuse ongoing with imminent. These trends are so fundamental in nature that it takes a long time till they have run their course; so don’t expect an immediate fall of the dollar (although we should never exclude anything).
Trend 1: Russia and China are becoming very strong allies
Both Russia and China have been growing fast in the last decade, at least economically. Combining the forces of both countries is really a global economic powerhouse, with several unique strengths, in particular in natural resources, energy, aerospace and defence. The world simply cannot ignore this, and the US cannot simply eliminate this duo by tactics and diplomacy.
As several sources have reported lately, one of which being RT (http://rt.com/op-edge/157400-russia-china-deepening-cooperation-ukraine/), Russia and China have been growing economically closer towards each other.
Russia’s trade turnover with China is $88.8 billion per year and it is expected to be boosted to $100 billion by 2015. China promised to invest about $20 billion into domestic projects in Russia, mainly focusing on infrastructure. In turn Moscow decided to renew sales of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. In the next 25 years Russia will export more than 700 million tons of oil to China as part of the $270 billion deal between Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned oil company, and China’s National Petroleum Company. Russia’s top natural gas producer Gazprom plans to start supplying China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2018, which is around a quarter of Russia’s exports to Europe. Also Moscow and Beijing are thinking of abandoning the dollar as the payment currency in regional deals.
Trend 2: BRICS countries are forming a new block, also monetary
With a very strong core being formed by Russia and China, the BRICS have economic power and are able to operate more independantly than ever before. Together, they are able to change the global order with the United States as the hegemonic power.
Peter Birle, head of research at the Ibero-American Institute (IAI) in Berlin, says: “”The BRICS countries are a group of nations unsatisfied with the international order. The importance of BRICS could rise if Russia remains permanently excluded from the G8.” According to Birle, the five emerging countries seek to permanently upend the power constellations established in 1945 and relativize the US position. “All these countries view themselves as emerging powers with a great future ahead of them,” he said at the 15th Stuttgarter Schlossgespräch, an annual conference involving a panel of international social science, culture and politicis expert. This year’s talks focused on the relationship between Brazil and Europe.
From DW (http://www.dw.de/frankfurt-issues-first-bond-backed-by-chinese-currency/a-17605819) in Germany:
Rousseff’s predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in office from 2003 to 2011, had established a counterweight to the political dominance of the US in Latin America by expanding the so-called south-south cooperation. Growing trade among emerging markets resulted in China replacing the US as the primary buyer of Brazilian products in 2009. Since 2012, the Chinese have also been Brazil’s most important import partner.
For Rousseff, the political and strategic cooperation with China is even more important than the growing trade between the two countries. Brazil views the participation of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in Fortaleza as an absolute priority. His official visit is the first of a Chinese head of state in Brazil and in the region. After the BRICS summit, a meeting is planned with the heads of state of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac).
The Ukraine crisis is accelerating the strategic orientation of Brazil toward Asia and Africa. It appears the greater Moscow’s isolation, the better the coordination among the BRICS members. Neither Brazil nor China, India or South Africa have commented on the events in Kyiv or Crimea. The principle of nonintervention has clearly welded the otherwise heterogeneous countries together.
China plans to set up a stable long term partnership with Brazil and other Latin American countries for oil and natural gas projects. China’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Wang Yi said recently that “Cooperation with Brazil and other Latin American countries has great potential as China imports a large amount of oil and natural gas, for which demand is long term.”
To facilitate the increased trade between emerging countries, it should not come as a surprise that those countries are working on their own monetary system. The BRICS countries have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, dominated by the U.S. and the EU (source (http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html)):
A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.
In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. “Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory,” Lukov said.
Trend 3: Yuan is gaining trust on a global level, bypassing the dollar
Very recently, Germany started trading bonds backed by the Chinese currency, the Yuan. Frankfurt is joining London, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast-moving market for bonds denominated in the Chinese currency.
From DW (http://www.dw.de/frankfurt-issues-first-bond-backed-by-chinese-currency/a-17605819) in Germany:
Germany’s KfW development bank announced it was issuing a two-year bond with the volume of 1 billion renminbi at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The development underpins Frankfurt’s bid to become a key offshore center for facilitating trade transactions and investments in renminbi.
China first authorized the sale of bonds denominated in yuan in 2007. They are called “Dim Sum” bonds after the bite-sized delicacies in Chinese cuisine. But they have become a huge boost to the popularity of the currency. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication says the renminbi is now among the top ten most-used currencies for global trade payments, overtaking the Swiss Franc to occupy position seven in February.
Furthermore, some analysts observe that the Yuan IS already a reserve currency. That conclusion is based on the fact that at least 40 central banks have invested in the yuan. Twenty-three countries have publicly declared their holdings in yuan, in either the onshore or offshore markets, yet the real number of participating central banks could be far more than that, said Jukka Pihlman, Standard Chartered’s Singapore-based global head of central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
According to SCMP (http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/1466621/central-banks-investment-yuan-puts-currency-nearer-reserve), Pihlman, former advisor to the International Monetary Fund advising central banks on asset-management issues, said at least 17 central banks had invested in yuan assets without declaring they had done so.
Also, as reported by Testosteronpit (http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/3/29/dollar-hegemony-under-attack-by-export-superpowers-germany-a.html), Germany and China closed an agreement which spelled out how the two central banks would cooperate on the clearing and settlement of payments denominated in renminbi – to get away from the dollar’s hegemony as payments currency and as reserve currency.
This “renminbi clearing solution will be an important step for China to internationalize the renminbi and ditch its reliance on the dollar. It will be located in Frankfurt; that the city is “home to two central banks,” Bundesbank Executive Board Member Joachim Nagel pointed out.
As a world payments currency, the renminbi is still minuscule but growing in leaps and bounds: in February, customer initiated and institutional payments, inbound and outbound, denominated in RMB accounted for only 1.42% of all traffic, but it set a new record,according to SWIFT.
It was “a major step forward in intensifying Germany’s economic relations with China,” said Bundesbank Executive Board Member Carl-Ludwig Thiele.
Saudi Arabia has the power to make or break
As we pointed out in Signs of A Cracking Dollar Hegemony, confidence is the basis of the dollar based world reserve currency. Each sign of loss of confidence will be critical in the deterioration of the dollar’s leading role.
According to Ron Paul, we should particularly watch for the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, with their unprecedented language towards the US, could become a turning point. As soon as we hear US officials talking about the “need” to transform the monarchy in Saudi Arabia into a “democracy” it could really mark the end game.
This view was recently confirmed by Jim Rickards, who explained (http://goldsilver.com/video/jim-rickards-russia-china-aiming-for-dollar-s-demise/) it as follows:
Saudi Arabia feels stepped in the back by what the US President did in December 2013. He sort of annotated Iran as a regional power, green lighted Iran’s nuclear ambitions. So there were some concessions from both sides, and Iran got tens of billions of dollars which they really needed. That is why Saudi Arabia feels betrayed. The petrodollar from Nixon and Kissinger, going back to the 70ies, was that “we would protect your national security and they would support the dollar by pricing oil in dollars.” Everyone needs oil, which means everyone needs dollars. If Saudi Arabia changes that, for instance by allowing euro’s or yuan, that pulls the rug out of the dollar, in part. Russia wants to get away from the dollar, they said so (the currency in Crimea right now is the Ruble), and China has said the same thing. They are both building up their gold reserves as a hedge. So if we are inflating the dollar (which equals taking wealth from China through inflation), their gold would be more valuable, which is their hedge position. All these points are important straws in the wind: they all weaken the dollar.
Gold, being the antidote against the falling dollar, is a must have for every investor who is serious about his future. Ideally, as we have said for a long time, precious metals should be held in physical form outside the banking system.
-
Existem aqui duas tendencias que devemos olhar com reservas :
Trend 1: Russia and China are becoming very strong allies
A china e um adversario historico da Russia ambos competem entre si e com o Japao pela supremacia economica e politica na Asia; qualquer pais que nao desconfie profundamente da Russia anda a dormir na forma; e a china teme a russia a ponto de mesmo na guerra fria partilhando o mesmo regime politico comunista se aliou aos EUA basicamente contra a Russia;
veja -se o proprio japao que depois da segunda guerra mundial optou por nao ser uma potencia militar de primeira linha esta a acelarar o seu rearmamento como resposta a este imperialismo russo;
Yuan is gaining trust on a global level, bypassing the dollar
- e duvidoso que tal realidade venha a acontecer sobretudo porque a china e uma versao daquilo que o Japao foi ha uns anos atras : uma plataforma de producao e distribuicao mundial de produtos assim que a china perder a vantagem competitiva as industrias mudar-se-ao para outras paragens e a china perdera o brilho que hoje tem ...
o dominio tecnologico e militar e o que faz a diferenca entre uma moeda de referencia a nivel mundial e uma moeda simplesmente forte como tendera a ser a moeda chinesa