Forum Think Finance - Bolsa e Forex
Geral => Comunidade de Traders => Tópico iniciado por: Iced em 2014-08-24 23:20:46
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Tópicos no Thinkfn
Tópico Cereais, Milho (Corn, ZC), Trigo (Wheat, ZW)
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,202.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,202.0.html)
Tópico: Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,500.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,500.0.html)
Tópico: Ouro
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.0.html)
Tópico: Metais (Cobre, Prata, Outros)
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,1764.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,1764.0.html)
Tópico: Softs - Cacau (CJ), Algodão (TT), Café (KT), Açúcar (YO)
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,362.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,362.0.html)
Tópico: Café
http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,2395.0.html (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,2395.0.html)
Valorizações desde o início do ano, na última semana e nas últimas 4 semanas
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Uma geral...
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Aproveitei este tópico para dar este link sobre o preço dos metais.
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/ (http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/)
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Este artigo é muito valioso :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/understanding-buffetts-silver-play (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/understanding-buffetts-silver-play)
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Aço, ferro e carvão metalúrgico.
(Passei o titulo deste tópico para commodities que não cereais, softs e petróleo porque para essas existem tópicos específicos)
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Aço (rebar futures) em novos mínimos em Shanghai.
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Outro contrato de aço na China, também em implosão contínua.
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O aço Chinês está a começar a inundar o mundo.
2 coisas são prováveis:
* Esta tendência intensificar-se;
* Aparecerem barreiras alfandegárias contrárias à mesma.
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A julgar pela quantidade de fornecedores que apareceram no nosso stand na semana passada numa feira na Alemanha, até parece que 90% da produção mundial de Titânio é na China.
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Na China, o aço continua por aí abaixo.
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Sei que engloba commodities que possuem tópicos específicos, mas de qualquer forma ficam os dados.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BarclaysCommods.png)
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Os valores de prejuízo, são referentes ao semestre:
BHP Billiton sinks to $5.67bn loss (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35635825)
The figure for the six months to December compared with a profit of $5.35bn for the same period in 2014.
It has abandoned its long-held policy of maintaining or increasing dividend payments to shareholders, reducing the payout from 62 cents a share to just 16 cents.
The company pledged to pay a minimum of 50% of underlying profits in dividends in the future.
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Publicado el 21 Junio, 2017 Daniel Lacalle
What Does Dr Copper Tell Us About Global Growth?
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Weakness in Copper persists, and it shows the risks to optimistic global growth and inflation expectations.
This weakness is down to a number of reasons:
Copper is the commodity that is most linked to industrial production. Copper price is a good indicator of the global economy as fluctuations in price are usually determined by industrial demand. Given that Chinese demand represents approximately 50% of global copper demand, the slowdown of its economy has a big impact on the price.
Additionally, many of the low-quality loans in China use copper as collateral, up to 30% according to HSBC, as it is an indicator of industrial activity and closely linked to Chinese growth. When the market begins to question the debt repayment capacity of many Chinese companies, margin calls are triggered and copper falls with it.
It is a double impact: Financial and demand-led. What was supposed to be a good hedge is actually a double risk on the economic slowdown.
Lower demand growth, persistent overcapacity.
The estimated surplus of refined copper was recently revised up, despite some moderation in production.
According to Platt’s:
The global refined copper market saw a surplus of around 165,000 mt in the first quarter of 2017, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by the International Copper Study Group.
“This is mainly due to [a] decline in Chinese apparent demand,” analysts with the Lisbon-based research firm said in a report. China currently represents 47% of the world copper refined usage.
Factoring in changes to private, unreported copper stocks in China, the first-quarter surplus rose to about 310,000 mt, it said.
Chile accounts for c34% of the world’s copper production, approximately 19% of the revenues for the country. USA is the fourth largest copper producer in the world, after Chile, Peru and China, and Australia is fifth. All these countries are producing at peak levels, and a small decrease of 3.5% year-on-year has failed to address the surplus.
In terms of demand, China accounts for c50%, followed by Europe 17%, other Asia 15%, U.S. c8%, Japan 5%. The rest are minor consumers.
Risks to demand estimates for refined copper in China, despite improved European indicators, mean that overcapacity increases. Current demand growth estimates are factoring a stronger US economy and a large infrastructure plan that is curtrently at risk of being severely delayed.
Refined copper overcapacity has remained since 2014, and calls for a “next year market balance” have been incorrect. China has seen its stockpiles of copper grow and it is looking to start exporting, just as supply continues to exceed demand.
Structural overcapacity and downward revisions of demand growth are the main drivers of the weakness in copper prices.
In summary, what Dr Copper is telling us loud and clear is that the infamous “reflation theme” that mainstream analysts have defended is simply incorrect, and that excessively optimistic expectations of global growth and inflation have to be revised down.
Daniel Lacalle is Chief Economist at Tressis SV, has a PhD in Economics and is author of “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, “Life In The Financial Markets” and “The Energy World Is Flat” (Wiley)
@dlacalle_IA
Picture courtesy of Bloomberg
– See more at: http://www.dlacalle.com/video-buy-us-dollar-assets-opportunities-and-risks-after-the-fed-rate-hike/#sthash.Of4w0L2y.dpuf (http://www.dlacalle.com/video-buy-us-dollar-assets-opportunities-and-risks-after-the-fed-rate-hike/#sthash.Of4w0L2y.dpuf)
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O que é que se pode comprar barato
que encareça daqui a um ano?
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O que é que se pode comprar barato
que encareça daqui a um ano?
cortiça
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Hum...
Eu só consigo juntar rolhas de cortiça
que levo depois ao Continente -:((