Ouro - Tópico principal ([url]http://forum.economico.pt/index.php?topic=11499.860[/url]) (continuação)
Iniciado originalmente por dianao em: 2007-10-29 22:50:48
Admito que este assunto já tenha sido discutido, de qualquer das formas perguntava se alguém tem ideia dos preços de compra e venda de ouro praticados no mercado e a sua relação com o preço spot. Haverá alguma associação de comerciantes do ramo que indique preços de referência para compra e venda?
Obrigado pela contribuição, Jeab. Numa das lojas que aparece no blog, Ducado Jóias, oferecem até 80 euros por grama!! Lembrar que o preço spot é cerca de 41 EUR/gr.
O mercado das jóias é um submercado do ouro. É preciso estar bem informado para não vender a desconto. O valor da jóia vai para além do valor do seu peso em ouro.
Para o ouro há a referência do preço spot, para as jóias a coisa complica-se, é preciso ser-se especialista. Assemelha-se à negociação de obras de arte. Agora fiquei baralhado.
A "Ducado Jóias" apareceu em 2005, não haverá lojas destas centenárias?
Obrigado pela contribuição, Jeab. Numa das lojas que aparece no blog, Ducado Jóias, oferecem até 80 euros por grama!! Lembrar que o preço spot é cerca de 41 EUR/gr.
O mercado das jóias é um submercado do ouro. É preciso estar bem informado para não vender a desconto. O valor da jóia vai para além do valor do seu peso em ouro.
Para o ouro há a referência do preço spot, para as jóias a coisa complica-se, é preciso ser-se especialista. Assemelha-se à negociação de obras de arte. Agora fiquei baralhado.
A "Ducado Jóias" apareceu em 2005, não haverá lojas destas centenárias?
O preço até 80 EUR/gr é para jóias. Que jóas serão estas, que valem o dobro do preço spot do ouro?
O preço até 80 EUR/gr é para jóias. Que jóas serão estas, que valem o dobro do preço spot do ouro?isso é só publicidade... eu até te posso dizer que te compro a 1000€/gr... se me apresentares um diamante perfeito que pese 4gr com 1gr de ouro ao lado, eu dou-te já os 5000€ :)
O ouro está a cotar abaixo da MM200. A cruz funesta de que fala o Elias, cruzamento da mm60 com a mm200 em baixa, aconteceu há cerca de 3 meses atrás. Há um suporte por volta dos 1560 USD/oz, que se for quebrado a queda será cruel.
A cruz funesta de que fala o Elias, cruzamento da mm60 com a mm200 em baixa, aconteceu há cerca de 3 meses atrás.
O ouro está a cotar abaixo da MM200. A cruz funesta de que fala o Elias, cruzamento da mm60 com a mm200 em baixa, aconteceu há cerca de 3 meses atrás. Há um suporte por volta dos 1560 USD/oz, que se for quebrado a queda será cruel.
está lateral de l.p., qd é assim não há medias q não cruzem
na minha opinião,
- há q ber se romper a linha azul, que limita o lateral de m.p., rompê-la pode significar força para tentar ir plo menos a topo (roxinhas de cima)
- fica feio se quebrar a base do lateral de l.p. (roxinha de baixo), claro
Ser mm50 ou mm60 creio que terá a mesma validade. A mm50 até é mais sensível e cruza mais cedo.
Elias, funesto é um eufemismo criado por mim para não desassossegar ana.
hoje abri uma operaçãozita já perto dos 1570, e só pra sentir o andamento da coisa. longa claro, estamos junto a possivel base, e hoje está animadinho. a ber qt tempo dura, pode ser sol de pouca dura:D
este tb já deu p q tinha o dar, plo menos para já. a ber onde vai parar
este tb já deu p q tinha o dar, plo menos para já. a ber onde vai parar
Oh Ana, com esta fiquei supreendido, então tu não entraste junto de uma base no timeframe semanal? não querias apanhar uma tendência de médio prazo?
Ou o tal sistema complexo, tem vários pontos que devem ser cumpridos dos dias seguidos à entrada?
Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
Alguém me sabe dizer se o investimento em marfim vale a pena?
Pode estar aqui uma interessante aplicação. Precisamente porque é mais pesado do que o ouro, o roubo é mais difícil (tal como sucede com a prata).
Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.
Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.
Muito bem vista essa questão do não servir para nada o tornar um pouco menos vunerável a alguns mecanismos normais. Acrescentaria que também fica menos vulnerável aos ciclos dos usos industriais.
Muito bem vista essa questão do não servir para nada o tornar um pouco menos vunerável a alguns mecanismos normais. Acrescentaria que também fica menos vulnerável aos ciclos dos usos industriais.
hermes, lembras-te de uma vez postares um artigo no fórum antigo um artigo sobre a razão pela qual o BCE podia, dentro do seu mandato, comprar bonds... Tinha que ver com o facto das suas reservas estarem a aumentar em valor por causa da diluição do dólar (algo deste género)? Sabes onde posso arranjar isso, ou outro artigo mas sobre o mesmo assunto?
a minha grande duvida eh se o BCE imprimir provoca uma situacao de ilegalidade na Alemanha, pais que tem leis para estas coisas
Já expliquei neste thread que o BCE não precisa de "imprimir", apenas "precisa" que os EUA imprimam para desvalorizar o dólar em relação ao ouro e dessa forma aumentar o valor das reservas do BCE. É a diferença entre usar MTM no BCE e MTF (35 USD) na FED. A impressão do dólar em quantidades ilimitadas é um dado adquirido, pelo que mecanicamente aumentam o valor das reservas do BCE sobre as quais este pode emprestar. É por isto que o BCE não precisou de imprimir, logo não teve que violar tratados.CitarThe path of least resistance, and I use that term guardedly, is for the ECB to find its printing press. Perhaps they can borrow one from Bernanke. Yes, I know they are buying sovereign debt now, but they are “sterilizing” it, meaning they sell euro paper to offset the monetary base effects (large oversimplification, I know).
Mas é isso que o BCE está a fazer! O ponto é que o BCE não precisa de correr mais depressa que o urso, apenas precisa de correr mais depressa que o seu oponente...Citação de: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp110615.en.htmlRisk Management in Central Banking
Speech by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
International Risk Management Conference 2011,
Free University of Amsterdam, 15 June 2011
Introduction [1]
It is a pleasure for me to speak at this International Risk Management Conference 2011, and particularly to contribute to this workshop on financial stability. In my remarks today, I would like to elaborate on two interrelated issues, namely financial stability and the risk management function in central banking.
I plan to structure my talk in two parts. First, I will discuss the role of central banks as liquidity providers and lenders of last resort, seeking to preserve financial stability as a necessary, albeit insufficient, condition for achieving their primary objective of price stability. This role will in turn explain why central banks, including of course the Eurosystem and the ECB, have expanded their balance sheets during the crisis. Second, I will elaborate on risk management in central banks, explaining how this differs from risk management practices in private financial firms. In doing so, I will also talk about the risk management framework of the ECB and the Eurosystem and how this contributes to the ECB’s policy goals, among other things, by ensuring the institution’s financial protection.
My objective is to provide a better understanding of the specificities of central banking activities in the supply of liquidity to the financial sector. I will also clarify why certain comments that have been made recently about central banks – in particular the ECB - becoming ‘bad banks’, as a result of their actions during the financial crisis, are fundamentally flawed.
1. Central bank as lender of last resort
The financial crisis has reminded us how, after a negative liquidity shock, financial firms may be forced to liquidate assets that they hold in stock in order to preserve a cash buffer. This naturally puts downward pressure on the market value of those assets. And when asset values decrease, other financial firms which hold that type of asset in their portfolios may be forced to sell as well to protect their balance sheet and in particular their desired capital ratio. Downward spirals can therefore ensue, which may seriously imperil the financial stability of the entire system.
If risks become systemic, investors collectively try to escape them by scrambling for an ‘outside asset’. When situations arise in which all counterparties appear to be at great risk, the only safe store of value are assets that do not represent a claim on anybody in the market. Liquidity – which is a claim on a central bank – becomes the only asset – outside asset – in demand in these circumstances. Investors hoard liquidity and shed all other financial claims that are vulnerable to credit risk. Such heightened preference for liquidity in a context of diminished confidence in other market participants has consequences not only for the value and liquidity profile of the assets held by private institutions, but also for their funding policies. The liquidity and credit crunch disallow the rollover of liabilities, and therefore investors are pushed to liquidate assets in the market, further contributing to the downward spiral.
It is crucial to realise that even a partial collapse of the financial system would jeopardise the ultimate goal of central banks, i.e. price stability, as prices adjust to a falling real economy. Furthermore, financial instability can negatively impact on monetary policy transmission.
For those reasons, under such circumstances central banks have to provide liquidity to the markets, intermediating in the money market with the aim of stabilising the financial sector and avoiding a meltdown. In other words, they have to play the role of ‘lenders of last resort’.
Playing such a role of course has implications for the size and risk profile of central banks’ balance sheets. At times of severe financial stress, central banks have to assume more risk in order to fulfil their mandate of price stability. These are risks that no private player is willing or able to take on. By doing so, a central bank achieves three things: it ensures the adequate transmission of monetary policy impulses; it helps to preserve the liquidity of financial markets; and it ultimately helps to restore a private market for those assets and thus creates the conditions which are necessary for it to unwind those positions.
In other words, the central bank is the only financial institution which – by temporarily taking on more risk than it would do in normal conditions – can manage and keep systemic risk in check.
As far as the Eurosystem is concerned, most liquidity-providing operations are conducted in the form of repo transactions, which are completely collateralised. When a counterparty fails, the central bank does not lose all the funds it has lent. A substantial fraction of value can be recovered from the repo-ed assets. What matters most, repo operations are short-term lending, from one week up to, currently, three months. The short-term nature of these interventions means that they can be – and are being – elastically unwound as market conditions improve. In this respect, the ECB framework allows for an ‘automatic’ contraction in its balance sheet: when favourable conditions are restored, banks can once again lend to each other in the money market. It goes of course without saying that not every action to deal with systemic or banking crises needs to be taken by the central bank. Liquidity support by central banks is meant to provide counterparties with bridge funding to cover the transition to calmer market conditions. It is predicated on the assumption that counterparties are and remain solvent institutions. If the latter condition is not met, then fiscal authorities should step in and, if necessary, inject fresh capital. The measures announced for the Irish banking system are a case in point.
In the following I will elaborate in greater detail on the key aspects that enable central banks to take risks in crises. In particular, I will describe some features of risk management in central banks, explaining the main differences with risk management practices in private banks. I will also briefly describe the risk control framework of the ECB, and the Eurosystem in general, which ensures its financial protection while helping to achieve its policy goal.
2. Risk management in a central bank
General remarks
Central banks have preferences and constraints that differ from those of private banks. The objectives of central banks are defined in their statutes, which typically specify the maintenance of price stability as their primary mandate.
For central banking policies to be successful, they need to remain credible by making sure that at least two conditions are met.
First, a central bank should be sufficiently capitalised and run in such a way that it remains financially independent. Financial independence helps to keep external parties from unduly interfering in the conduct of monetary policy.
Second, the long-term profitability of a central bank needs to be ensured, so that the bank’s reaction to specific economic circumstances is not influenced by considerations of the short-term financial impact of such policies on its profit and loss accounts.
Consequently, the capital position of a central bank, its profitability and the degree of financial risk protection provided by its risk control framework seem to be crucial elements that contribute to its credibility, hence facilitating monetary policy. This consideration, along with the principles of prudence and transparency that are required for all public institutions entrusted with the management of public funds, calls for the establishment of state-of-the-art risk management frameworks and the highest governance standards.
Risks taken in central banking activities need to be analysed in a holistic manner, considering the interaction of different portfolios and operations. For that purpose, a state-of-the-art comprehensive risk monitoring and reporting framework is required, capable of providing decision-making bodies with appropriate risk management input. As a key element of the risk management function at a central bank, the highest governance standards need to be observed, both in terms of the reporting lines and organisation of the risk management function.
Making a comparison of central banking practices with the risk management and governance standards required for private financial institutions seems obvious. However, it is not always easy to take best practice in private financial institutions as a measure for comparing the risk management frameworks of central banks, since there are a number of very relevant differences that make such comparisons inappropriate. Those differences relate to the structure and components of the financial statements and their corresponding risks, as well as to the objectives and constraints faced in the strategic asset allocation and other risk management decisions. I will elaborate on the most significant aspects of these dissimilarities.
Liabilities and capital position of central banks
To begin with, I will focus on the capital and liability side of the balance sheet, since the most striking idiosyncratic feature of a central bank’s balance sheet is the existence of non-maturing liabilities that are not remunerated. I am referring, of course, to banknotes. A central bank is endowed with the monopoly to issue central bank money, which constitutes a sizeable liability. Furthermore, central banks have also a privileged access to other stable funding sources such as the current accounts covering the minimum reserve requirements. Therefore, in times of financial distress central banks do not face the same liquidity challenges as private institutions.
The solvency profile of central banks also differs significantly from that of private financial institutions. The latter need to weight their risks against the financial buffers provided by their explicit capital position. In the case of the Eurosystem, its explicit capital position is determined by consolidated capital and reserves amounting to more than €80 billion, but also by revaluation accounts amounting to more than €300 billion. Although such explicit financial buffers remain a valid and necessary benchmark to assess the leverage and the risk-taking capacity of central banks, their financial strength cannot be fully captured by using capital adequacy metrics such as those applicable to private banks for regulatory purposes, as it has been done in a rather simplistic way by some commentators.
Particularly, the privilege to issue legal tender gives central banks an additional financial buffer in the form of seigniorage income. The concept of seigniorage income refers to the return generated by the assets that are funded with non-remunerated liabilities, that is, with banknotes. The seigniorage income expected for the future constitutes an implicit financial buffer that needs to be considered when assessing the economic capital of a central bank. In this regard, the net present value of such future income can be seen as a sort of ‘franchise capital’, as it reflects the value of the ‘franchise’ to issue legal tender.
Having discussed the different components of the liability side of a central bank, and particularly its capital position, I’d like to consider the use made by central banks of such capital and look at the asset side of the balance sheet.
Assets and risk management framework of central banks
Capital allocation in central banking, understood as the risk budgeting and strategic asset allocation decisions that arise from the capital position and objectives of the bank, also differs substantially in methods and scope from that conducted at private financial institutions. On the one hand, regulatory capital requirements are not a constraint for central banks. On the other hand, the risk-return trade-off is not the only relevant function to evaluate the capital allocation decisions of a central bank, since its objective should be to maximise social welfare by achieving its policy goals.
Against this background, the risk profile of a central bank displays characteristics that are significantly different from those of private banks. From a dynamic perspective, central banks tend to take more risks in crisis situations, whereas private firms reduce their exposures. From a static perspective, central banks tend to take far less equity risk, duration risk and credit risk than private firms, while taking a much higher currency risk exposure. In addition, strategic decisions in central banks typically are shaped to reduce operational, legal and reputational risks to a minimum, not only to avoid the possible financial impact of those risks, but more importantly, to maintain credibility.
I will now turn to the main determinants of the risk profile, on the asset side, of a central bank’s balance sheet, by describing the Eurosystem case, and, in particular, that of the ECB. I’ll consider the applicable risk mitigation measures as well.
I will start by describing a central bank’s exposure to exchange rate (or FX) risk. The extent to which central banks hold FX risk in their balance sheets differs substantially from the typically much lower FX exposures of private firms. FX risk is, in normal times, the core determinant of the risk profile of a central bank such as the ECB. Hence, from a risk management perspective, the size of the foreign reserves held, the currency distribution and the degree to which such positions may be hedged are some of the more important choices a central bank has to make. But in fact, these choices are not risk management choices. In the case of the ECB, foreign reserves are mainly held for intervention purposes, and therefore the corresponding FX risk is not hedged. The reason for taking on that apparent risk is simple: a central bank may need to intervene in the markets by selling foreign currency if a sudden appreciation of those currencies impairs price stability or financial stability directly or indirectly. In a sense, the need to intervene represents a contingent policy liability, and by taking such an FX risk we are effectively hedging or matching such contingent liability.
The exposure to gold price movements is also significantly higher in central banks than in private banks. For example, holdings of gold in the Eurosystem amount to approximately €350 billion, accounting for almost 20% of the total assets. The holdings are on this scale not only for historical reasons, but also for risk management reasons, as gold is considered to be a safe haven. In times of financial distress, gold indeed helps central banks to maintain a solid financial position.
Another striking difference of central bank exposures compared with those of private institutions is to be found in their investment portfolios. Those of central banks are typically managed with a very high degree of prudence. Risks are kept to levels that ensure the financial buffers of the institution remain free to meet policy needs, while at the same time attempting to achieve sufficient income to cover operating expenses and to ensure long-term profitability. The regular fixed-income portfolios of the ECB, as an example, are managed against internally derived benchmark portfolios which serve as a yardstick for performance and risk measurement. Our benchmarks reflect our quite conservative stance with regard to the interest rate, credit and liquidity risks, and are derived on the basis of the specific objectives for each portfolio. The management of the actual portfolios against those benchmarks is constrained by a number of typical risk control measures, such as relative value-at-risk limits and caps imposed on credit and liquidity risk exposures. All in all, we could describe the investment framework of our regular fixed-income portfolios as conservative. This of course does not come as a surprise.
In normal times, we try to retain in our balance sheet ample leeway in terms of risk-taking capacity. This allows us to expand our balance sheet and take more risks in situations where other market participants are deleveraging and reducing their risks. Our additional risk-taking sometimes arises from our regular operations, but in other cases it occurs through non-conventional measures such as outright purchase programmes. I will discuss some risk management aspects of our outright purchase programmes before briefly covering some of the measures associated with our ordinary monetary policy operations.
The security purchase programmes initiated by the Eurosystem as a reaction to the financial crisis, that is the Covered Bond Purchase Programme (CBPP) and the Securities Markets Programme (the SMP), have had the clear objective of smoothing out the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The most powerful risk management arguments for accepting the risks entailed by the programmes were that the markets were overpricing the risks associated with the related assets, and that the Eurosystem’s action could contribute to mitigating market concerns. Not being a liquidity-constrained institution, we can act as a buy-side counterparty in markets where sell-offs are taking place, and our investment in those markets can be held to maturity, so that only default risk could impact our profit and loss accounts.
I will now turn to our ordinary market operations, that is, our lending operations. The risk control framework applied to the Eurosystem’s credit operations is designed according to four basic principles: protection, consistency, simplicity and transparency. Protection can be seen as the main objective of the risk control framework, while consistency, simplicity and transparency are needed for the framework to work in an efficient, accountable and predictable manner.
In the context of the implementation of the Eurosystem’s credit operations, financial protection is ensured by relying on three lines of defence that can be complemented by discretionary action.
The first line of defence relates to the fact that, in repo operations, as long as our counterparty meets its obligations, we don’t incur any kind of risk related to the collateral. Assets held as collateral only constitute a guarantee, not a direct exposure. Accordingly, related price decreases could only induce Eurosystem losses if those decreases took place after the default of the counterparty. Therefore, by only accepting financially sound counterparties in our credit operations we greatly limit the risks. Financial soundness is a precondition imposed by the Eurosystem on its counterparties to participate in monetary policy operations.
The second line of defence in our credit operations is the eligibility requirements we impose for the collateral. Eurosystem credit operations need to be guaranteed by adequate collateral, complying with minimum credit quality thresholds and other legal criteria and operational requirements. The minimum credit quality requirement in general corresponds to a BBB- rating, although in some cases the rules applied may differ. Regarding ABSs, an asset class that many analysts have blamed for being at the core of the financial crisis, the Eurosystem actually requires a minimum AAA rating at issuance. [2] All in all, the eligibility criteria help to protect the Eurosystem, while ensuring that sufficient collateral remains available to our counterparties under any kind of economic scenario, so that monetary policy can be implemented.
The third line of defence relates to other elements of the collateral risk control framework. Margin call policies and risk control measures such as valuation haircuts are applied to mitigate credit, market and liquidation risks related to the collateral assets that need to be sold to cover the exposure of defaulted counterparties.
Another key component of the financial protection of the Eurosystem when performing credit operations is the valuation of collateral assets. In this regard, the Eurosystem is making considerable efforts to maintain state-of-the-art valuation techniques for those assets for which a reliable market price may not be available.
I would like to emphasise that our collateral eligibility and risk control framework is continually reviewed, and the lessons learned from the crisis are obviously being incorporated into it. That being said, it is also relevant to point out that our framework is designed to be applied consistently in both good and bad times. Our creditworthiness allows us to maintain conservative risk control measures, such as haircuts, above market standards in normal times. Counterparties are willing to accept such haircuts because they know we are not going to default on our obligations. In fact, in times of extreme uncertainty and heightened risk aversion, the conditions in private repo markets deteriorate quickly and our operations become more attractive. By not adjusting our risk control framework in a pro-cyclical manner, and therefore by maintaining or even enlarging the collateral available to our counterparties facing greater financial distress, we achieve two policy goals. On the one hand, we facilitate the implementation of a monetary policy stance consistent with the crisis environment. On the other hand, we contribute to restoring the value of certain assets by attributing them a liquidity status that the market would not have permitted.
The Eurosystem risk position: common misunderstandings
Let me address en passant two issues that have received attention from some analysts recently.
First, some commentators have stated that, since the ECB’s balance sheet is expanding and is allegedly taking on large risks, the ECB may be turning into a ‘bad bank’. [3] This argument is based on a clear misunderstanding of the type of operations conducted by the Eurosystem and of the risk control measures applied to those operations. The description of the risk control measures and of the specificities of the capital position of the ECB that I just provided should help dispel such misunderstanding. The data have actually confirmed that the Eurosystem’s financial results have proved resilient to the global financial crisis, and its total capital position has even increased. [4] The numbers I have provided in terms of overall capital and reserves of the Eurosystem should help a better understanding of the situation.
Second, some analysts have tried to show that the Eurosystem had taken on too much risk, at the detriment of the ECB major shareholder, by looking at the net balances of individual national central banks in the Eurosystem – the so-called TARGET2 balances. [5] Not only is the analysis wrong, as it has been shown by others, [6] but the conclusions in terms of burden sharing are exactly the opposite. In fact, the risk sharing system inherent in the Eurosystem monetary policy operations, which is generally based on the share of GDP and population, is particularly favourable for those countries whose banking system has a comparatively large net creditor position with respect to the rest of the euro area.
I will not elaborate too much on this issue. I will only mention that items related to TARGET2 in the balance sheets of national central banks across the Eurosystem are a natural consequence of the de-centralised provision of credit to banks in the euro area. TARGET2 balances of central banks enable booking cross-border payments and are as such automatic reflections of short-term cross-border base money movements. It is thus misleading to present those balances as a sort of ‘stealth bail-out’ from some national central banks to particular euro area countries.
The size of TARGET2 net balances of an individual central bank is not a one-to-one counterpart of the cumulated current account imbalance of the respective country. Several other factors, such as the degree of integration of the euro area money market and capital market flows play an even larger role. Furthermore, positive net TARGET2 balances represent claims against the Eurosystem as a whole, not bilateral claims against other national central banks. Finally, the claim that Eurosystem operations entail base money flowing out of creditor countries to refinance euro area periphery banking systems is unsubstantiated. The supply of credit in the euro area, like almost everywhere in the world, is determined by the decisions of commercial banks and there is no reason to assume that domestic banks creditor countries are subject to any base money constraint, given their permanent access to Eurosystem operations, especially when these are conducted through fixed-rate full-allotment tenders.
Conclusion
During the financial crisis central banks have intervened swiftly to protect financial stability, which is a key precondition to achieve price stability. While this function has now been widely recognised, some concerns have been voiced that central banks have taken on too many risks in their balance sheets.
The point that I wanted to make today is that taking on more risk in times of distress is inherent in the financial stability function of central banks. The central bank is the only patient investors who can intervene at times of crisis as a counterpart to distressed short term investors with a view to ensuring market liquidity and restoring confidence. However, this can happen only if the financial independence of the central bank is safeguarded, otherwise the credibility of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability may be jeopardised. This is why central banks manage their risks, albeit not necessarily in the same way as private financial institutions because of the fundamental differences which exist between the two.
Hopefully these differences are now better understood, and misperceptions about the role of central banks corrected.
Thank you for your attention.
[1]I wish to thank Marco Catenaro, Fernando Monar and Massimo Rostagno for their contributions to the speech. I remain solely responsible for the opinions contained herein.
[2]A minimum AAA rating at issuance by two rating agencies is required. Over the life of the instrument, it should retain a second-best rating of at least A-.
[3]See, for instance, the interview to T. Mayer in FAZ, 14 June 2011, “Die EZB droht zur Bad Bank zu werden”; M. Persson, 8 June 2011, “Europe’s bad bank,” The Wall Street Journal.
[4]From 5 September 2008 to 3 June 2011, Capital and reserves have increased by 13.2% (from €71.7 to €81.2 billion) and revaluation accounts have increased by 100% (from €152.3 to €305.9 billion). Total Eurosystem assets have increased by 31.8% (from €1441 billion to €1899 billion) over the same period.
[5]See, for instance, H.-W. Sinn, 1 June 2011, “The ECB stealth bailout”, VOX.
[6]See, for instance, Buiter, W., E. Rahbari and J. Michels, 9 June 2011, “TARGETing the wrong villain: TARGET2 and intra-Eurosystem imbalances in credit flows”, Citigroup Global Economics View; K. Whelan, 7 June 2011, “Professor Sinn Misses the Target.”
É a diferença entre um sistema que cresce em volume (USD) e um sistema que cresce em valor (EUR) via a revalorização das suas reservas, graças à expansão em volume do primeiro...
Resumindo, a nossa impressora é a FED... logo: Força, força companheiro Bernanke! (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif)
Não tenho a certeza mas penso que tem uma certa dose de ilegalidade.
As jazidas estão obviamente a esgotar-se...
O marfim é o tipo de coisa para se levar uma facada monumental quando se quer vender - isto se for sequer vendável.
É o mesmo que diamantes, relógios caros, etc.
São coisas que só são bem compradas a descontos de 80% ou mais sobre qualquer valor de referência.
O marfim é o tipo de coisa para se levar uma facada monumental quando se quer vender - isto se for sequer vendável.
É o mesmo que diamantes, relógios caros, etc.
São coisas que só são bem compradas a descontos de 80% ou mais sobre qualquer valor de referência.
Kin2010, ainda se existisse um mercado razoavelmente líquido, onde fosse possível comprar ou vender marfim, sem se pagar uma exorbitãncia sobre o spot, se é que sequer existe spot, ainda poderia entender. Assim, não cabe no meu entendimento.
Essa ausência também caracteriza os mercados de obras de arte, selos, e antiguidades, por exemplo, e muita gente investe neles.
Porque querem os bancos centrais [ler governos de forma indirecta] a controlar o ouro? Não confiam nos mercados? O ouro comdo divisa independente do conservador Banco Central da Natureza não é o melhor que se podia desejar? :D
Jeab, sabes alguma coisa relativamente a este a assunto sobre espanha?
All the physical assets of the world are at the disposal of those who wish to save, so why should they make their savings in the form of money? Money was not made to be saved!
OK, vamos lá a por esses HMS [Hard Money Socialists] na ordem. :D
Em 1933 as pessoas tinham o ouro nos bancos, logo este era o Single Point of Failure, pois não só os bancos estavam facilmente ao alcance do braço legislativo do governo, como até lhe convinha e bastante... não aparceu a polícia / exército a bater de porta em porta a obrigar os eleitores a entregarem o seu ouro...
Hoje em dia qual são os Single Points of Failure? Reservas dos bullion banks, fundos ou ETFs e provavelmente o fluxo das mineiras, via venda compulsiva da produção aos estados a preços por estes determinados. Mais uma vez, não estou a ver a polícia / exército a arrombar as portas de cada eleitor munidos de um detector de metais para fazer o confisco, pois os governantes apreciam um mínimo de estabilidade para poderem apreciar os seus cash flows bem como a cabeça agarrada ao corpo. ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif[/url])
A Replacement for Gold Appears to Have Been Developed
Well, not for it's use as money, but...
Ben Johnson emails:CitarThought I'd pass along an interesting new development. The major industrial use for gold (which is rarely recovered) is for interconnect points for PCBs, etc.
A Sweedish company has developed a coating purporting to have all the benefits of gold but at a much lower price.
If this pans out, it could put some downward pressure on the price of gold as early as a ,1.5 years from now.
Here's the background info:
[url]http://www.impactcoatings.se/[/url] ([url]http://www.impactcoatings.se/[/url]) (main page - click on "Silver Max Phase")
[url]http://www.impactcoatings.se/_userfiles/documents/Coating_Services_Silver_MaxPhase_leafleat_20120716.pdf[/url] ([url]http://www.impactcoatings.se/_userfiles/documents/Coating_Services_Silver_MaxPhase_leafleat_20120716.pdf[/url]) (brochure on Silver Max Phase)
Update à prata:
O quarto "reforço" nunca te deu a sensação de já ir tarde? ...i.e., que tal 2 ou 3 mais "gordinhos"?
Abraço.
Para acrescentar que o número de reforços, o "tamanho" dos mesmos etc terá de ser ajustado consoante a personalidade de cada trader. O que um trader faz tranquilamente, porque tem uma certa tolerância ao risco, pode ser devastador emocionalmente para outro trader. O método tem de se adaptar à personalidade de cada um senão nunca vai ser cumprido consistentemente no longo prazo. A sabotagem tomará conta do trader mais cedo ou mais tarde. Este aspecto é muito importante porque influência a consistência dos trades no longo prazo e consequentemente os resultados do sistema.
O que aconselho é que se definam as regras consoante o que confortavelmente toleramos em termos emocionais e cumprirmos com extrema consistência dia após dia após dia após dia. Sem vacilar e sem permitir antecipações, second-guessing ou saltar sinais (mesmo que no nosso interior pensamos que o mercado vai para outro lado que não o do sinal que o sistema dá, etc...). Confiança no método é crucial. Passando um bom drawdown é algo que temos de viver pessoalmente para que as dúvidas se dissipem e surja a confiança. A maioria desiste ou altera o método quando um drawdown mais agressivo aparece (ou salta um ou dois sinais ;) no que mais tarde se vem a revelar no melhor trade do ano, etc,etc). A sabotagem é tramada... :)
JCS
Só reforço se todas as anteriores Units estiverem a mostrar lucro que é sinal que estou a "ter razão"
Saudações!!
Mais uma falsificação! E bem produzida...
[url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district[/url] ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district[/url])
[url]http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-bars-turn-up-in-manhattan[/url] ([url]http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-bars-turn-up-in-manhattan[/url])
Um abraço,
JR
"Já desde 2008 que vimos denunciando que jóias roubadas em Portugal são postas à venda nas ourivesarias da Roménia, muitas vezes sem sequer se darem ao trabalho de retirarem as etiquetas dos comerciantes portugueses, mas ninguém faz nada para pôr cobro a isto", disse, à Lusa o presidente da ANOR.
Como por vezes a Prata anda de quase de mão dada como o Ouro, deixo algumas informações sobre o uso da Prata em várias actividades.
[url]http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36878.html[/url] ([url]http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36878.html[/url])
É provável que a Prata, em termos especulativos, tenderá a ser melhor que o Ouro.
Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.
Por vezes deparamo-nos com estas coisas assim.
Nem sei como se pode interiorizar determinadas perspetivas.
Para já não passa para mim de um Dali.
Concretizando-se algo acima disto (preço onde está agora), para mim é caso de ficar de boca aberta!!!
[url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url] ([url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url])
Cumprimentos
Por vezes deparamo-nos com estas coisas assim.
Nem sei como se pode interiorizar determinadas perspetivas.
Para já não passa para mim de um Dali.
Concretizando-se algo acima disto (preço onde está agora), para mim é caso de ficar de boca aberta!!!
[url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url] ([url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url])
Cumprimentos
Subida exponencial dessas só c/ as verdinhas a valerem limpar o ... :D
Por vezes deparamo-nos com estas coisas assim.
Nem sei como se pode interiorizar determinadas perspetivas.
Para já não passa para mim de um Dali.
Concretizando-se algo acima disto (preço onde está agora), para mim é caso de ficar de boca aberta!!!
[url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url] ([url]http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php[/url])
Cumprimentos
Subida exponencial dessas só c/ as verdinhas a valerem limpar o ... :D
Já lhe chamam às verdinhas...."o dinheiro do papel higiénico". Mas isso é um problema menor. Falta saber é se há muita gente de caganeira!!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has banned banks from lending against gold.
“…it is advised that no advances should be granted by banks for purchase of gold in any form, including primary gold, gold bullion, gold jewellery, gold coins, units of gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) and units of gold mutual funds,” RBI said.
RBI further ordered,
“No advances should be granted by banks against gold bullion to dealers or traders in gold if, in their assessment, such advances are likely to be utilised for purposes of financing gold purchase at auctions or speculative holding of stocks and bullion.”
Non bank gold finance companies (NBFC) have been growing fast in India. These companies typically lend up to 75% against gold including ETFs. In comparison, in the United States, the maximum margin allowed for ETFs such as GLD and SLV is 50%.
visitante. esse rectangulo de q vcs estão a falar, é um lateral de longo prazo. rectangulos são laterais. lembras-te da nossa conversa em q dizias q para ti não havia laterais de longo prazo? esse é. pode haver laterais em todos os horizontes temporais.
visitante. esse rectangulo de q vcs estão a falar, é um lateral de longo prazo. rectangulos são laterais. lembras-te da nossa conversa em q dizias q para ti não havia laterais de longo prazo? esse é. pode haver laterais em todos os horizontes temporais.
Ana, eu fiz a observação para o caso de muito grandes horizontes temporais e elevadas amplitudes, isto é, considerei como hipótese académica um 'rectângulo' incluir vários 'bull' e 'bear markets' com amplitudes de variação da ordem dos 100% que duram uma década ou mais. Julgo que dávamos o exemplo do DAX. Como hipótese académica acho estes casos discutíveis.
Agora o que se passa no ouro é diferente, trata-se de uma lateralização com cerca de um ano e com uma amplitude de variação pequena, cerca de 15 a 18%. Aqui julgo que é consensual a consideração do rectângulo.
Na consideração destas figuras julgo que a pequena amplitude de variação é o factor mais importante, a duração pode ser qualquer, pode ser de semanas, meses ou anos.
Os USA vão passar por tempos difíceis nos próximos tempos, com republicanos e democratas a tentar chegar a um acordo sobre redução de deficit's, impostos e afins. Sem mais QE's pela frente (será??? também já estão tão inelásticos que mais QE não fará diferença), coloca-se a questão do que pode vir a fazer o dolar, e consequentemente o metal amarelo.
Os USA vão passar por tempos difíceis nos próximos tempos, com republicanos e democratas a tentar chegar a um acordo sobre redução de deficit's, impostos e afins. Sem mais QE's pela frente (será??? também já estão tão inelásticos que mais QE não fará diferença), coloca-se a questão do que pode vir a fazer o dolar, e consequentemente o metal amarelo.
O tio Sam é quem mais ordena na sua carteira ele nunca vai votar de livre e expontânea vontade uma diminuição do seu nível de vida. O tio Ben só tem duas opções pela sua frente:
- Não imprime e por isso o tio Sam tem de fechar o estaminé. Sabendo que tal implica que o tio Sam tem de mandar os criados embora, deixar de dar rebuçados e acabar com a FED por esta ter destruido o estado.
- Imprimir para manter o seu emprego, a manutenção da FED e permitir que tio Sam mantenha o seu nível de vida.
E o nosso querido BP? Deve desfazer-se do material agora, e trocar por liquidez, ou deve comprar mais material!!!!
E o nosso querido BP? Deve desfazer-se do material agora, e trocar por liquidez, ou deve comprar mais material!!!!
Essa é fácil. O BP tem primeiro de pedir autorização ao BCE para fazer o que quer que seja ao "seu" ouro.
E vou ser mais atrevido... Se o ouro é uma relíquia bárbara, porque carga de água os EUA não se aproveitaram do resto do mundo para continuarem com a charada de impingir o seu ouro ao resto do mundo, mantendo a janela aberta até que este se acabasse?
Pensa longa e profundamente nesta questão.
E o nosso querido BP? Deve desfazer-se do material agora, e trocar por liquidez, ou deve comprar mais material!!!!
Essa é fácil. O BP tem primeiro de pedir autorização ao BCE para fazer o que quer que seja ao "seu" ouro.
E vou ser mais atrevido... Se o ouro é uma relíquia bárbara, porque carga de água os EUA não se aproveitaram do resto do mundo para continuarem com a charada de impingir o seu ouro ao resto do mundo, mantendo a janela aberta até que este se acabasse?
Pensa longa e profundamente nesta questão.
Provavelmente depois de o impingirem ao mundo como essa verdadeira reliquia diriam que não passaria de um material (que sendo raro), não serviria de nada pois ao dar-lhe uma "trinca" partiriamos um dente. Provavelmente começaria uma nova "capacidade de impingir algo" que os Americanos fizessem acreditar ser a nova raridade da história.
Mas a força do que reluz é grande, muito grande para fazer acreditar ao mundo que uma luz diferente será maior riqueza.
uma coisa é certa....sem energia e chop-chop e sem ter gente que a produza, não há ouro, nem moeda que nos valha.
Cumprimentos
Que é irracional, é ... mas que é uma realidade que esse brilho amarelo enlouquece, também é verdade :)
Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.
Muito bem vista essa questão do não servir para nada o tornar um pouco menos vunerável a alguns mecanismos normais. Acrescentaria que também fica menos vulnerável aos ciclos dos usos industriais.
Já lá está: é a agulha fura-bolhas nº 2.
O ouro ainda tem umas ínfimas aplicações industriais, mas quase todas foram priced out pela sua melhor função: a de reserva de valor. E como sabemos, a função é que determina o valor.
Não vá ter escapado a mensagem. A auxência das duas agulhas fura-bolhas criaram um efeito de realimentação positiva ao longo da história da humanidade esculpindo na mente dos homens a noção do ouro ser a reserva última de valor.
ouro a caminho dos 1762. se os parte fica descendente de medio prazo e vamos a base de longo prazo
é o spot do ouro, em forex
Ana, lá em cima devias queres dizer 1672, não?
O forum ganhava mais se se junta-se uns gráficos às palavras :)?
O Financial Times descreve a iniciativa como um “raro exemplo de um banco central ferozmente independente, curvando-se à inquietação popular sobre a manutenção da maioria das suas reservas de ouro no exterior”.
The last big German gold transport was in 2000/2001 when the Bundesbank withdrew 940 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England. Unlike the Fed and the Banque de France, Britain’s central bank charges storage fees for gold and the move was partly to save money, according to federal auditors.
O FT tinha que fazer esse comentário parvo sobre o Bundesbank. Os anglo-americanos não metem bem na cabeça que os outros podem não olhar para eles com a confiança com que olhavam antes. Dado o que sucedeu em 2008, é bem compreensível que o mundo inteiro já não encare os US & UK Ltd como uma marca assim tão segura. De facto, até podem estar à beira do colapso -- embora a acontecer isso o mais certo seja atirarem o mundo abaixo com eles. Os alemães podem estar simplesmente a apostar em que os US & UK vão colapsar E que ainda vai haver um resto do mundo intacto no qual valha a pena viver e para o qual valerá a pena ter ouro em Frankfurt.
Uma outra coisa que vejo neste debate libertário/intervenccionista, é que um dos lados visa alterar constantemente as regras para produzir um dado resultado que deseja, ao passo que o outro visa implementar um conjunto de regras e deixar o sistema funcionar independentemente do resultado.
Eu já não "combato" as ideias dos intervencionistas. Eu "apoio" as ideias dos intervencionistas, pois como dizia o Herbert Spencer "The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif[/url])
Desde a 2ª conferência de Génova ([url]http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/genoa[/url]) que os EUA "estão" [e "foram"] protegidos das consequências dos seus actos, o que levou os americanos a criarem a sua própria mitologia...
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=5988;image[/url])
Apesar de no começo dos anos 80 o Paul Volcker ter conseguido salvar o dólar, os europeus criaram a sua solução para o queixume do Banqueiro Central da Holanda em 1971, quando os EUA abandonaram o padrão ouro:Citação de: Jelle ZijlstraWhen we left the pound, we could go to the dollar. But where could we go from the dollar? To the moon?
Naturalmente que os europeus foram construindo lentamente a sua solução para não acordar o gigante, mas em 1978 os passos para a criação do euro já eram visíveis:
1978 April 8: At EC summit, French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing and German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt propose establishment of European Monetary System.
1979 March 13: Establishment of European Monetary System and European Currency Unit. Eight currencies -- the Belgian and Luxembourg francs, French franc, deutsche mark, Danish krone, Dutch guilder, Italian lira and Irish pound -- take part in the exchange-rate mechanism limiting currency fluctuations.
Mas salvar os EUA não foi barato. A Europa ainda teve de viver 20 anos abaixo das suas possibilidades para que os EUA pudessem continuar a viver acima das suas possibilidades e para que continuassem a dormir:
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=5989;image[/url])
Mal que os europeus deixaram de necessitar de ir para a Lua, deixaram de pagar a corveia ao tio Sam em 2001. Quem entretanto salvou o tio Sam foi a China, que pagou durante 10 anos a corveia para continuar a sua industrialização. Mas agora temos duas dinâmicas em acção. Por um lado, os americanos não têm bling para comprar produtos chineses, por outro lado, o medo dos chineses perderem os dólares que acumularam ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?topic=725.0[/url]) está a criar a profecia que se auto-realiza...
Agora o resto do mundo não precisa de ir para a Lua, pelo que os EUA estão numa situação de checkmate, pois não só não têm o apoio do resto do mundo via compra de dívida do tio Sam, como é inverosímil a segunda do Paul Volcker. Relembremos a história:
Foram necessários taxas de juro reais da ordem dos 10% [e nominais de 21%] para tornar a enfiar de novo o génio dentro da lâmpada. Como os políticos resolveram salvar os bancos [nenhuma surpresa aqui, dada a escolha entre salvar a moeda ou salvar o sistema, a escolha é sempre salvar o sistema] estão com eles apertados. Vejamos o caso dos EUA . Fora a Segurança Social, o governo arrecada 1 trilião de dólares de impostos. Suponhamos generosamente que o governo os consegue aumentar para 1.5 triliões. Mas o governo tem 16 triliões de dívidas e a aumentar à taxa de 100 biliões por mês. Ora uma subida nominal de 10% dos juros consumiria todas as receitas dos impostos, ainda antes do governo gastar um único cêntimo em qq outra coisa...
A cereja em cima do bolo é que o resto do mundo já não precisa de ir a lado nenhum, nomeadamente para a Lua, se bem que a Europa esteja bem mais adiantada... É apenas uma questão de continuar a deixar a força da gravidade fazer o seu trabalho e deixar ao cuidado do tio Ben a alteração da natureza do dólar de crédito para base [note-se que em tempos de hiperinflação quase todo o dinheiro na economia é base].
Uma vez explicado de onde viemos, vejamos para onde vamos ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,530.msg35840.html#msg35840[/url]), relembrando as palavras de outro Banqueiro Central holandez no discurso de abertura do euro:Citação de: Wim DuisenbergThe euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.
Source: [url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url])
Não só a pouco e pouco os governos vão compreendendo o que significa o "but also its link to the nation-state", como ainda a pouco e pouco vão rendendo de livre e expontânea vontade parte do seu poder em políticas bancárias com os aplausos e ovações dos bancos, para que lhes tirem a corda da garganta dos últimos, reforçando ainda mais os poderes do BCE. :D
Uma vez rendido o poder monetário e regulação bancária, a prazo os governantes revelar-se-ão tão viris quanto eunucos, pois vão ter menos áreas de actuação para arbitrariedades e menos capacidade de extrair dinheiro pela calada aos seus campónios para pagar sistemas burocráticos pesados e caros ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,530.msg8655.html#msg8655[/url]).
Govt hikes import duty on gold, platinum
The government's move to hike import duty is aimed at curbing imports of the precious metals to check the widening current account deficit.
[url]http://m.thehindu.com/business/Industry/govt-hikes-import-duty-on-gold-platinum/article4329093.ece/?secid=2780[/url] ([url]http://m.thehindu.com/business/Industry/govt-hikes-import-duty-on-gold-platinum/article4329093.ece/?secid=2780[/url])
The Union government on Monday hiked the import duty on gold and platinum to 6 per cent from 4 per cent with immediate effect — a move aimed at curbing imports of the precious metals to check the widening current account deficit.
“Government has decided to increase import duty on gold and platinum from 4 per cent to 6 per cent with immediate effect,” Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram told reporters.
He further said the government will link Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with gold deposit scheme, which will enable mutual funds to unlock their physical gold and invest in gold-linked schemes offered by banks.
“The changes proposed to the Gold deposit scheme will make it attractive for individuals to deposit their idle gold with the banks under the Gold deposit scheme,” Mr. Mayaram said.
He said the changes would help moderate import of gold and help in bridging the current account deficit (CAD).
Gold imports in 2011-12 amounted to $ 56.5 billion and in the current financial year, till December, they are estimated at $ 38 billion.
The Union government on Monday hiked the import duty on gold and platinum to 6 per cent from 4 per cent with immediate effect — a move aimed at curbing imports of the precious metals to check the widening current account deficit.
“Government has decided to increase import duty on gold and platinum from 4 per cent to 6 per cent with immediate effect,” Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram told reporters.
He further said the government will link Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with gold deposit scheme, which will enable mutual funds to unlock their physical gold and invest in gold-linked schemes offered by banks.
“The changes proposed to the Gold deposit scheme will make it attractive for individuals to deposit their idle gold with the banks under the Gold deposit scheme,” Mr. Mayaram said.
He said the changes would help moderate import of gold and help in bridging the current account deficit (CAD).
Gold imports in 2011-12 amounted to $ 56.5 billion and in the current financial year, till December, they are estimated at $ 38 billion.
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever
unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of
such buyers in the 17th century.
This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they
believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can
produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more
avidly in the future.
The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other
assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however,
has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some
industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of
soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still
own one ounce at its end.
What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the
past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated
additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis.
As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.
Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses
that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these
bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the “proof” delivered by the market,
and the pool of buyers – for a time – expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles
blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise
man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”
Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it
would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At
$1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400
million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most
profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would
have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying
binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual
production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users,
frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely
maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn,
wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the
currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its
owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The
170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can
fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m
confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at
a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.
Os gold bugs odeiam essa tirada ... :D
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century. [...] The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.
Que é irracional, é ... mas que é uma realidade que esse brilho amarelo enlouquece, também é verdade :)
Eu diria que é racional e já te expliquei porquê.Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.Muito bem vista essa questão do não servir para nada o tornar um pouco menos vunerável a alguns mecanismos normais. Acrescentaria que também fica menos vulnerável aos ciclos dos usos industriais.
Já lá está: é a agulha fura-bolhas nº 2.
O ouro ainda tem umas ínfimas aplicações industriais, mas quase todas foram priced out pela sua melhor função: a de reserva de valor. E como sabemos, a função é que determina o valor.
Não vá ter escapado a mensagem. A auxência das duas agulhas fura-bolhas criaram um efeito de realimentação positiva ao longo da história da humanidade cunhando na mente dos homens a noção do ouro ser a reserva última de valor.
Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge).
O ouro é uma bolha autosustentada com 5000 anos de história e é uma das poucas coisas desses mesmos 5000 anos a que a maioria dos humanos ainda continua a dar valor.
Encontrei estes HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES- 1833 to Present ([url]http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf[/url]) e o que se observa é que a bolha do ouro é recente, não parece ser milenar. Durante muitos anos o preço manteve-se estável e segundo percebi era determinado por decreto governamental, tal como é dito no cabeçalho da tabela.
Hermes, pedia-te para explicares melhor o conceito de bolha milenar autossustentada no ouro, tendo em conta que não valorizou durante séculos, e o terceiro ponto que referiste do ouro com aspas e sem aspas. :D
Quanto à questão da "The Age of Inflation" do Jacques Rueff, também há a tese de Roger Bootl que defende "The Death of Inflation — Surviving & Thriving in the Zero Era" ([url]http://www.amazon.com/The-Death-Inflation-Surviving-Thriving/dp/1857881486[/url]).
The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.
Source: [url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url])
A expressão popular para esse género de coisas (ouro, prata e afins) é que "não fazem criação", no sentido de que não se reproduzem hehe
O Hermes é o maior discípulo da escola austríaca aqui no fórum, o Incognitus já não é puro porque não acredita no superior valor do ouro. :D
Brazil raises gold holdings by 17.170 tonnes in Oct-IMF
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/imf-gold-idUSL5E8ML68E20121121[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/imf-gold-idUSL5E8ML68E20121121[/url])
Nov 21 (Reuters) - Brazil raised its gold holdings by 17.170 tonnes in October, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on Wednesday, bringing its bullion reserves to 52.518 tonnes.
The IMF's monthly statistics report also showed that the euro area had lowered its gold holdings by 4.168 tonnes to 10,783.609 tonnes in October. The euro area figures largely reflected Changes in Germany as it lowered holdings by 4.199 tonnes to 3,391.446 tonnes last month.
Meanwhile Kazakhstan raised its bullion reserves by 7.527 tonnes to 111.543 tonnes.
Turkey raised gold holdings by 17.543 tonnes to 319.907 tonnes in October. It also revised its September figures upwards by 6.843 tonnes to 302.361 tonnes, the data showed.
Turkey allows commercial banks to use gold as collateral for loans, and changes to its balance sheet are often connected to such activity.
Central bank buying of gold has been a major support to gold prices XAU=, which hit record highs a year ago and are still holding above $1,700 an ounce, more than double their level of five years ago.
prefiro negociar o ouroPara não investires tempo a seguir dois metais ou por outra razão ?
prefiro negociar o ouroPara não investires tempo a seguir dois metais ou por outra razão ?
a ber se e qd quebra a pink. go go ([url]http://i682.photobucket.com/albums/vv186/quinhentascoisas/sm/191cheerleader_ch.gif[/url])
A guerra cambial deveria favorecer o ouro, mas pelo meio o ouro tornou-se numa espécie de bolha perigosa ...
A guerra cambial deveria favorecer o ouro, mas pelo meio o ouro tornou-se numa espécie de bolha perigosa ...
Bolha a qual ouro te referes ao papel ou ao físico?
Chato, chato, vai ser para aqueles que andaram a comprar ouro, muitos deles sem experiência na matéria, unicamente convencidos pelo António Sala, a pensar que era reserva de valor e se calhar aqui a uns tempos quando repararem, desapareceu metade do valor.. :o
colei esta imagem no meu facebook
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Gold Scrap Drying Up, Get Ready For Serious Movement
12/08/2011
[url]http://www.rapidtrends.com/2011/08/12/gold-scrap-drying-up-get-ready-for-serious-movement/[/url] ([url]http://www.rapidtrends.com/2011/08/12/gold-scrap-drying-up-get-ready-for-serious-movement/[/url])
A little over one year ago AFE sent out our June 2010 edition of the Global Insider in which we discussed the gold supply demand equation and pointed out that the only thing that made up for the gaping 500 ton deficit in gold supply that central banks were no longer selling was the scrap gold supply which had made huge increases, up to 1600+ tonnes per annum.
The 2010 supply demand situation is as follows:
Mine supply of ~2500 tonne Scrap supply of ~1650 tonne Total: ~4150 tonne
When you subtract the 76 tonnes bought by Central Banks, you end up with about 4074 tonnes supply for the year.
Global Demand for 2010 was ~4000 tonne
When we published our newsletter we pointed out that at some point the scrap supply of “Grandmas Gold” would run out – this appears to have started. If this continues on this trajectory we are looking at a MAJOR portion of global annual gold supply drying up, right when demand is skyrocketing. The potential effect on price moving forward should be obvious.CitarAnalysis: As gold prices surge, cash-for-gold frenzy fades
By Frank Tang and Paula Rogo
NEW YORK | Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:16am EDT
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/12/us-global-gold-scrap-idUSTRE77B0HO20110812[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/12/us-global-gold-scrap-idUSTRE77B0HO20110812[/url])
(Reuters) - Handing out flyers at the corner of 47th Street and Fifth Avenue in New York City's Diamond District, Mariabi Peenya is having trouble finding passersby eager to sell their gold jewelry for cash.
In Mexico City, Paulino Luna says fewer customers are coming to his small storefront in a colonial-era building, where he's been buying bullion for 25 years. And in Chennai, India, Daman Prakash Rathod finds the once-heaving crowd of local gold scrap sellers have all but disappeared.
Across the globe, the latest surge in gold prices -- up as much as 20 percent since June as investors seek refuge from stock market turmoil and sovereign debt crises -- is failing to lure as many people into selling their gilt mementos, heirlooms and dusty family jewels as during the 2008 financial crisis.
The success of massive cash-for-gold industry over the past three years, urging people to sell their gold, means there are fewer and fewer people with any "old gold" left.
Anyone who cashed out when gold prices spiked in 2008 missed a three-year bullion boom in which prices doubled. Now with the U.S. Federal Reserve having pledged two years of near-zero interest rates, the rally in gold prices shows no sign of slowing. But it seems those people who still have gold may be holding out for even higher prices.
"It's nothing like it was in 2008," says Peenya as he flagged passing New Yorkers, promising his price was best. "Either people are waiting till the price hits $2,000, or they are running out."
The implications of a dwindling supply of "scrap" gold, that which isn't mined, may hit the global bullion market even harder than it hits local pawn shops. Worldwide, recycled gold usually meets 40 percent of demand. But that share is now declining just as demand for physical bullion surges anew from investors and central banks. That may be yet another reason to expect gold prices to rise even further.
"The fact that scrap is not reacting as strongly as one might have expected to the stimulus of higher prices suggests those higher prices are more sustainable and price growth is easier," says Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of respected metals analytics firm GFMS Ltd, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
Gold prices breached $1,800 an ounce for the first time this week, having almost tripled from its 2008 lows of $680.
"The easier-to-let-go stuff has been let go, so it gets progressively more difficult given the move in the price to stimulate the same growth in scrap," Klapwijk said.
In 2009, scrap supply surged by 30 percent to a record as consumers rushed to sell anything they had, both to turn a fast buck on a booming market and to cushion the blow of recession.
In the years since then, large amounts of recycled gold flooded the physical market. But growth has slowed sharply as people either run out of things to sell, or wait for higher prices. Klapwijk expects recycled gold to grow by only about 5 percent this year.
CASH-FOR-GOLD PART OF U.S. CULTURE
The trend is perhaps most notable in the United States, which contributes about 10 percent of global scrap supply. Last year scrap supply was 143 tonnes -- equivalent to more than 10 million wedding bands. Some of that recycled gold also comes from industrial sources such as computer motherboards.
Unlike some nations such as Turkey and India, where recycling jewelry has been commonplace for decades, most Americans had been unaccustomed to the idea of selling off old jewelry. Then a network of cash-for-gold businesses popped up after 2008, thanks to the almost constant television and radio advertisements by pioneers such as Cash4Gold.com.
Now, "We Buy Gold" signs are commonplace in windows of American main street stores.
Gold recycling in the United States reached its climax when a Cash4Gold ad featuring rapper MC Hammer aired during the 2009 Super Bowl, said Michael Toback, a board member of the 47th Street Business Improvement District in New York, who also owns jewelry refiner Myron Toback.
In Manhattan's bustling Diamond District, many jewelry vendors say Americans may sell their remaining gold if economic conditions worsen. But many interviewed by Reuters agree that business has slowed by as much as a third from past year.
EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOW DOWN TOO
The change in psychology is evident elsewhere too.
"I think everybody is still bullish about the market. They don't want to sell for the time being," says Hong Kong-based Dick Poon, manager at Heraeus Precious Metals, a German company that is a leading global metals dealer and refiner.
In the historic center of Mexico City, several streets are crowded with kiosks where people line up to sell gold chains, medallions, earrings or bracelets for cash. Vendors weigh it all on simple scales. But Luna says business is drying up.
"People don't have their parents' or grandparents' gold anymore, they've sold it," said Luna. "We are not seeing the same amount of volume that we saw before, every day there is less, of both gold and silver."
And in the country which consumes more gold than any other, India, where gold jewelry is a central part of the culture from weddings to holidays, reselling gold has become a rarity.
"The selling crowd has disappeared," Daman Prakash Rathod of gold wholesaler MNC Bullion said by telephone from Chennai.
Watching friends and neighbors rue their decisions to sell at $1,000 or $1,200 or even $1,500 an ounce, he reckons other Indians have learned a lesson.
"The excessive scrap that used to come a few years ago has stopped, and people who have sold must be cursing themselves for doing so at lower prices."
A guerra cambial deveria favorecer o ouro, mas pelo meio o ouro tornou-se numa espécie de bolha perigosa ...
Bolha a qual ouro te referes ao papel ou ao físico?
É tudo igual, o preço é o mesmo.
Uma questão. Há alguma entidade de supervisão que garanta a exist~encia de ouro fisico para satisfazer os contratos de futuros?
Não vá um gajo investir em futuros de ouro e depois sofrera experiência da alquimia financeira que transforma ouro em papel.
a ber se e qd quebra a pink. go go ([url]http://i682.photobucket.com/albums/vv186/quinhentascoisas/sm/191cheerleader_ch.gif[/url])
Após um ciclo de 12 anos em alta, a tendência provavelmente já terá invertido, de acordo com os analistas do Goldman Sachs.
...
Um artigo de opinião (bullish) sobre o ouro:
[url]http://www.investing.com/analysis/trends-and-setups:-gold,-oil-and-the-spx-157465[/url] ([url]http://www.investing.com/analysis/trends-and-setups:-gold,-oil-and-the-spx-157465[/url])
Margarida Vaqueiro Lopes
18/03/13 00:11
Reguladores norte-americanos começaram a examinar manipulação de preço do ouro e da prata.
As desconfianças de que um conjunto de bancos possa estar a concertar os preços do ouro e da prata em Londres levaram os reguladores norte-americanos a começar a escrutinar o valor deste metal precioso. E apesar de ainda não ter sido formalizada nenhuma investigação, certo é que fontes próximas do processo garantiram ao ‘Wall Street Journal' que os trabalhos já terão começado há algum tempo.
Com o fantasma da manipulação das taxas Libor ainda muito presente, os reguladores dão agora sinais de reacção às mais pequenas desconfianças em relação a faltas de transparência. O escrutínio está a ser levado a cabo pela Commodity Futures Trading Commission, que acredita que duas vezes por dia alguns bancos se reúnem, via ‘conference call' e manipulam os preços do metal amarelo.
Aqui estão boas notícias para o Ouro (pelo menos para alguns dias)
spx para baixo e
Preço do ouro pode estar a ser manipulado ([url]http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/preco-do-ouro-pode-estar-a-ser-manipulado_164993.html[/url])CitarMargarida Vaqueiro Lopes
18/03/13 00:11
Reguladores norte-americanos começaram a examinar manipulação de preço do ouro e da prata.
As desconfianças de que um conjunto de bancos possa estar a concertar os preços do ouro e da prata em Londres levaram os reguladores norte-americanos a começar a escrutinar o valor deste metal precioso. E apesar de ainda não ter sido formalizada nenhuma investigação, certo é que fontes próximas do processo garantiram ao ‘Wall Street Journal' que os trabalhos já terão começado há algum tempo.
Com o fantasma da manipulação das taxas Libor ainda muito presente, os reguladores dão agora sinais de reacção às mais pequenas desconfianças em relação a faltas de transparência. O escrutínio está a ser levado a cabo pela Commodity Futures Trading Commission, que acredita que duas vezes por dia alguns bancos se reúnem, via ‘conference call' e manipulam os preços do metal amarelo.
Margarida Vaqueiro Lopes
18/03/13 00:11
Reguladores norte-americanos começaram a examinar manipulação de preço do ouro e da prata.
As desconfianças de que um conjunto de bancos possa estar a concertar os preços do ouro e da prata em Londres levaram os reguladores norte-americanos a começar a escrutinar o valor deste metal precioso. E apesar de ainda não ter sido formalizada nenhuma investigação, certo é que fontes próximas do processo garantiram ao ‘Wall Street Journal' que os trabalhos já terão começado há algum tempo.
manipulacoes existem em todos os merćados podemos fazer o paralelismo do que aconteceu no mercado do Crude Oil em 2008 e no entanto apesar da quebra abrupta provavelmente
devido a manipulacao grosseira passado nao muito tempo i crude oil voltou novamente para cima puxado pelos fundamentais.
com o ouro provavelmente sera parecido sobretudo quando expressos em USD Yen ou GBP ...
Lara Fabian -Caruso de Lucio Dalla (legendado em português) - Canção em homenagem a Enrico Caruso ([url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBO3l-s4AmI#ws[/url])
dedico á Ana esta linda musica
There’s been a recent huge draw down of physical gold at the New York COMEX and at the JP Morgan Chase depository. Look at the physical market draw down on the charts below. It has taken a drastic plunge.
HOUSTON -- we have a problem.
Physical inventory drawdown at JPM
Charts by Nick Laird of [url=http://www.sharelynx.com]www.sharelynx.com[/url] ([url]http://www.sharelynx.com[/url])
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Nota: a escala da direita começa em 0.
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Eu não quero especular, a razão desta queda abrupta das commodities, não tem a ver com a tax season, como o trading em commodities o risco de recuperar o perdido é menor que em ações, não terá sido uma maneira de não pagar tantos impostos?
Aqui fica.
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Day[/url] ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Day[/url])
Contain uncontrolled passion for gold: Chidambaram to countrymen
PTI : Mumbai, Sat May 25 2013, 11:47 hrs
[url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/contain-uncontrolled-passion-for-gold--chidambaram-to-countrymen/1120501/0[/url] ([url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/contain-uncontrolled-passion-for-gold--chidambaram-to-countrymen/1120501/0[/url])
Finance Minister P Chidambaram today asked countrymen to contain their "uncontrolled passion" for gold and instead save in financial instruments. "Have faith in our financial sector. Unfortunately, we have difficulty shedding our old habits and put our money in gold," he said while speaking at an event to mark the platinum anniversary celebrations of state-run Dena Bank.
"The uncontrolled passion for gold must be contained," Chidambaram said and reeled out data to show how increasing gold imports are hurting the Current Account Deficit (CAD). People should rather switch to financial products to funnel their savings, the Minister said and added the soon to be launched inflation indexed bonds is a very lucrative option.
He also sought to demolish gold as a hedge against inflation, saying many such investors are finding the going difficult ever since the price of gold plummeted to Rs 26,000 from over Rs 33,000 per ten grams last year.
He said that last year the country bought USD 50 billion worth gold and fortunately, it was able to finance the CAD of USD 90 billion on the back of higher foreign flows and could maintain the foreign exchange reserves level at around USD 290 billion. However, if the flows were to stop completely, it would have a negative impact on the forex reserves, the minister warned.
Explaining the difficulties of financing a high CAD, which hit a record high of 6.7 per cent in the Decemeber quarter of last fiscal, as against the fiscal deficit, another problematic point, he said, the government can borrow from its people for the latter but has to depend on external flows for the latter.
The CAD, which is the excess of foreign exchange spent than earned, is likely to be over 5 per cent last fiscal. Chidambaram reiterated the government's commitment to rein in fiscal deficit at the targeted level of under 5.2 per cent last fiscal and 4.8 per cent this fiscal.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines, Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Takru said it will take at least seven to ten days more before any action is taken by the Reserve Bank against errant banks in the money laundering probe initiated following a series of sting operations by the newsportal Cobrapost.
He said the problem is not so much with the "greed" of banks but lack of "inadequate attention to existing rules and regulations" which would be tightened. On bank recapitalization, Takru said a majority of the Rs 14,000 crore earmarked for recpaitalisation of public sector banks this fiscal will be provided in the fourth quarter while the request of a few of those which need capital early will also be considered.
Today Egon von Greyerz shocked King World News with more stunning news regarding clients having problems getting their physical gold out of Swiss banks as well as other major banks as the gold shortage intensifies. Greyerz also discussed the fact that suppliers cannot keep up with demand and the reason will surprise KWN readers around the world. Below is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this remarkable interview.
Greyerz: “Eric, at our company we are hearing more and more stories about banks not delivering gold that belongs to the client. We are talking about Swiss banks here once again. One client went to a Swiss bank to inspect his gold and the client manager said, ‘You can’t see it, but it looks like this,’ and he took a gold bar out of his drawer.
And the client showed me that he had a statement showing ounces of gold. Well, you don’t own physical gold in ounces in Europe. You own gold bars either in grams or in kilos, but not in ounces....
...
Greyerz also added: “The latest shocking news from suppliers is they are having a very difficult time getting hold of physical gold. Therefore, this week again they increased their spreads on physical gold. So again, Eric, my message is very clear: Investors must hold physical gold outside of the banking system because this paper market will explode one day.”
London Gold Trade Reached 20-Month High After Price Drop
By Whitney McFerron
2013-05-30T16:28:52Z
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-30/london-gold-trade-reached-20-month-high-after-price-drop.html[/url] ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-30/london-gold-trade-reached-20-month-high-after-price-drop.html[/url])
London Gold Trade Reached 20-Month High After Price Drop
By Whitney McFerron - 2013-05-30T16:28:52Z
London gold trading jumped to a 20-month high in April and silver volumes surged 25 percent after a plunge in prices for both precious metals spurred an increase in physical buying, the London Bullion Market Association said.
Trading in gold averaged 24.1 million ounces a day in the London market, the most for any month since August 2011, the LBMA said in a statement e-mailed today. The total compared with 21.8 million ounces a day in March. Silver volume was 165.2 million ounces a day, up from 132.5 million ounces in the previous month. There were 5,395 gold transactions on average per day, the highest on record, while silver transfers at 1,007 a day were the second-highest ever, according to the report.
Gold fell 14 percent in London in the two trading sessions ended April 15, the biggest drop in more than 30 years, on speculation that Cyprus or other European countries would sell holdings in the precious metal, the LBMA said. The price rebounded as much as 13 percent through early May as demand increased for gold coins and jewelry. Assets in exchange-traded funds backed by gold fell 18 percent this year to 2,152.7 metric tons yesterday, the lowest since June 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“April was characterized by continued offloading of both metals by ETF funds,” the LBMA said. “But this was more than offset by strong physical demand, particularly from India,” the world’s biggest consumer.
ETP Declines
Assets in exchange-traded funds backed by gold fell 174 metric tons in April, the biggest drop on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Silver ETF assets dropped by 1.4 percent in April and 2.3 percent in May.
Gold demand in India is set for a quarterly record as imports head for 300 to 400 tons in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said in a report yesterday.
Gold traded at $1,411.60 an ounce today in London, heading for a 4.4 percent loss in May, a second-straight decline. Prices are down 16 percent this year. Silver for immediate delivery was at $22.9425 an ounce, down 5.7 percent in May and 24 percent so far in 2013.
The value of gold transferred in April increased about 3 percent from the previous month to a daily average of $35.8 billion, the LBMA said. Silver values climbed about 9 percent to $4.17 billion a day.
Although the physical market for gold and silver is distributed globally, most wholesale OTC trades are cleared through London. The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days, and to the annual silver production every 6.2 days.[1] The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee claims that clearing data substantially understates the true amount of gold traded, due to the netting of trades in the calculation of Clearing Statistics.[2] They claim the LBMA market is $5.4 trillion a year.Fonte: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_bullion_market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_bullion_market)
Gold global market revealedFonte: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron907.html)
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
THURSDAY JANUARY 30 1997
The London Financial Times
Deals involving about 30 million troy ounces, or 930 tonnes, of gold valued at more than $10 billion are cleared every working day in London, the international settlement centre for gold bullion. This is the first authoritative indication of the size of the global gold market, and was revealed yesterday by the London Bullion Market Association. With the blessing of the Bank of England, the association overturned years of tradition and secrecy to provide statistics illustrating the size and depth of the London market.
The volume of gold cleared every day in London represented nearly twice the production from South African mines in a year, Mr. Alan Baker, chairman of the association, pointed out. It was also equivalent to the amount of gold held in the reserves of European Union central banks. The size of the gold market will surprise many observers, but traders insisted the association’s statistics were only part of the picture because matched orders are cleared without appearing in the statistics. Mr. Jeffrey Rhodes, of Standard Bank, London, said the 30m ounces should be “multiplied by three, and possibly five, to give the full scope of the global market”.
Mr. Baker said the association would produce average daily clearance figures every month. “They will provide a useful benchmark for comparison and analysis of trends in the volume of the global bullion business,” he predicted. He denied suggestions that the move might drive business away from London by upsetting clients who preferred secrecy. “These figures do not in any way affect the confidentiality of the market. While discretion and integrity will always be bywords in the London bullion market, the LBMA is nevertheless conscious of the general call for greater transparency in markets. “The statistics demonstrate the prominence of London in the world of bullion, something we have long been aware of but which until now has been difficult to demonstrate with statistics.”
LBMA members were divided over the move. One said he was puzzled. “What will people make of it?” Another said the exercise was “futile” because it did not give a complete picture of bullion market activity. But Standard Bank’s Mr. Rhodes suggested the statistics would “become the key indicator in the world of gold, providing the numbers by which the market can be monitored”.
Mr. Martin Stokes, vice-chairman of the association, said: “This shows we have a serious market with a lot of depth and deserving of more attention.” The statistics showed, for example, that the 300 tonnes of gold sold recently by the Dutch central bank – a disposal that badly affected bullion market sentiment – was not a large amount by the market’s standards. The association was “making a bid to attract investors’ interest”.
The association also gave details yesterday about the silver market. Roughly 250 million ounces of silver valued at more than $1 billion are cleared daily in London. It also published the results of a Bank of England survey of turnover that the 14 market-making members of the LBMA in the London bullion market conducted in May last year. This showed about 7 million ounces of gold, worth nearly $3 billion, was traded daily by these market-makers.
UPDATE 1-Record 2.5 bln barrels of oil futures traded Tuesday
Wed Apr 14, 2010 9:58pm IST
[url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2010/04/14/oil-record-volume-idINLDE63D28320100414[/url] ([url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2010/04/14/oil-record-volume-idINLDE63D28320100414[/url])
* Record 1.4 billion barrels trade on NYMEX in U.S.
* Further 1.1 billion trade on ICE in London
(Adds details on London trade, quotes)
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A record 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil traded on April 13 on the world's two main futures exchanges, the equivalent of almost 30 times the amount of oil used around the world each day, data showed on Wednesday.
In the United States, a record 1.4 million benchmark U.S. crude oil CLc1 future contracts changed hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a spokesman for CME Group (CME.O) said on Wednesday, 25 percent more than the previous record set last week. Each contract is equal to 1,000 barrels.
In London, a further 1.1 million contracts traded, comprised of both U.S. crude and Brent crude oil futures -- the benchmark for much of Europe, Africa and Asia. The volume of U.S. crude oil futures traded in London was also a record for the exchange.
"This (total) volume, representing 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil, is roughly 29 times the daily volume in the physical market," analyst Tim Evans at Citigroup said.
An average of about 86 million barrels per day of crude oil are expected to be consumed globally this year. [IEA/M]
U.S. crude oil futures jumped $2 to near $86 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering after 5 days of losses. At one stage on Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures were down by as much as 2 percent, before rallying into the close to finish the day just 29 cents down.
The spike in volumes is likely to be closely monitored by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, which aims to rein in speculation in energy and commodity trading, especially oil.
Excessive speculation has been blamed for sending oil prices to record highs near $150 a barrel in 2008, though many traders, analysts and industry groups have argued higher trading volumes lead to less volatile prices.
In January, the CFTC unveiled proposed regulations on how many U.S. energy contracts hedge funds, investment banks and other speculators can control. The proposal is up for public comment until April 26. [ID:nCFTCREG]
Last Tuesday, U.S. crude prices hit an 18-month high of $87.09 a barrel, in a move some analysts and traders attributed to increased buying by funds at the start of the quarter, as well as growing demand as the world economy recovers.
The record volume on both exchanges includes contracts both for physical delivery in May and far in the future although the majority of the trades were on contracts for next month and June. (Reporting by David Sheppard; editing by Keiron Henderson)
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A record 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil traded on April 13 on the world's two main futures exchanges, the equivalent of almost 30 times the amount of oil used around the world each day, data showed on Wednesday.
Although the physical market for gold and silver is distributed globally, most wholesale OTC trades are cleared through London. The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days, and to the annual silver production every 6.2 days.[1] The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee claims that clearing data substantially understates the true amount of gold traded, due to the netting of trades in the calculation of Clearing Statistics.[2] They claim the LBMA market is $5.4 trillion a year.
Um gráfico do ouro é que era :)
France has outlawed buying or selling of precious metals for cash and has now outlawed even mailing them, In Germany, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat have decided to increase VAT on silver coins to 19% trying to make it unprofitable for investors to go out of the system using the tax increases. By the beginning of next year, Germany will be attacking the precious metals as well.
Bundestag eo Bundesrat decidiram aumentar o IVA em moedas de prata. Por doze pontos percentuais os aumentos de impostos. Até o início do próximo ano, ainda é considerada a taxa de imposto mais favorável. Depois que o mercado alemão deve ser interessante para os investidores estrangeiros.
Tópicos: Governo Federal , da União Europeia , de ouro , de capital , impostos , moedas , prata na Alemanha, a compra de uma moeda Kookaburra australiano a partir do próximo ano vai ser mais caro
Discretamente Bundestag eo Bundesrat decidiram na semana passada para aumentar o IVA sobre as moedas de prata. Desde 1 Janeiro pode ser comprado em uma taxa mais baixa agora não mais moedas de prata.
Até o momento foi de moedas de prata da taxa reduzida de sete por cento . Este plano será aumentada para 19 por cento em 2014 para. A nova taxa de imposto aplica-se moedas de prata, como o Panda chinês, Australian Kookaburra, a Filarmônica de prata, mas também de moedas de colecção em prata . A mudança na taxa de IVA para as moedas de prata encontradas na Lei sobre a implementação da directiva relativa à assistência mútua e que altera a legislação tributária ( Lei de Implementação da Assistência , S. 44, § 12, § 2 º) . Prata não é mencionado diretamente, mas sim o termo "obras de arte e de colecção" é utilizado - e isso também mais perto de levantar aqui (. p. 44f)
Com esta inovação, o governo depende de uma directiva da UE, que especifica a harmonização das taxas de IVA. O benefício para o governo federal: as receitas fiscais mais altas são sempre bem-vindos e você definir algo como isto mais fácil para grupos de não ter um lobby forte da indústria, tais como o hotel ou a indústria automotiva. Então, beneficiou o estado dos investimentos empresariais.
No entanto, a política ainda não se atreveu a ouro. Ambos barras de ouro e moedas de ouro permanecem isentos de IVA . Até agora, isso é porque eles são vistos como um investimento. No entanto, isto pode mudar. Moedas de ouro com valor numismático (moedas de colecção) estão sujeitos ao imposto.
Eu passei a neutro/positivo em ouro e prata, especialmente em prata. Mas ainda não comprei nada.
Apenas acho que a impressão vai ser ad eternum e que nesse cenário não podia ficar negativo para sempre.
A Change Of Heart
[url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/1514382-a-change-of-heart[/url] ([url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/1514382-a-change-of-heart[/url])
Muito provável. A prata é o contrário do ouro, pois é o metal com mais aplicações industriais. Tal tb significa que ao contrário do ouro é extremamente vulnerável às seguintes duas agulhas fura-bolhas:Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.
Mas os problemas da prata não ficam por aqui. Há mais duas dinâmicas que jogam contra a prata [e a favor do ouro]:
- A prata é tão útil que os seus stocks acima da terra foram quase todos consumidos [terminaram em aterros sob a forma de produtos electrónicos: televisões, telefones, computadores e electrodomésticos ([url]http://seekingalpha.com/article/273518-bullish-fundamentals-present-for-silver[/url]), pois a reciclagem é cara, cf. ponto 2.] e tem um flow to stock ratio [taxa de inflação, se preferirem] de 23000 ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_mining[/url])/31000 ([url]http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/silver-investor.html[/url])=75%, enquanto que o ouro tem um flow to stock ratio de apenas 2500/170000 ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment[/url])=1.5%.
- Ao contrário do ouro, a mineração da prata é essencialmente price insensitive, pois é essencialmente um produto secundário da mineração do chumbo, estanho e zinco ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedimentary_exhalative_deposits[/url]).
Oh ana...mas para tu venderes...alguém tem que comprar :D
eu só digo q quem compra tendencias descendentes em alta volatilidade num TF como o semanal, pra mim ou é para curtissiSSImo prazo, ou sabe medir fundos de longo prazo, portanto é um genio, ou não sabe o q anda a fazer
Eu ainda não vou comprar, simplesmente já escrevi bastantes artigos negativos sobre a coisa, e agora que implodiu a minha opinião é de que daqui a alguns anos estará aqui ou acima. Não é razão suficiente para comprar, mas é suficiente para deixar de estar tão negativo.
Citareu só digo q quem compra tendencias descendentes em alta volatilidade num TF como o semanal, pra mim ou é para curtissiSSImo prazo, ou sabe medir fundos de longo prazo, portanto é um genio, ou não sabe o q anda a fazer
e evidente que nao estamos num ponto de compra ( basta olhar para o grafico ) nem para uma aposta segura de longo prazo e muito menos para uma aposta menos segura de curto prazo.
o Ouro esta a cair de forma muito pronunciada e portanto nao vale apena estar a " apanhar facas " mas isso e tao obvio trata se de apenas de olhar para o grafico.
Em todo o caso para uma aposta de longo prazo nao vale apena estar a tentar apanhar o fundo que consiste um processo que tem tanto de inutil como de contraproducente
Redemptions in the GLD are, oddly enough, Bullish for Gold
By Eric Sprott & Etienne Bordeleau
[url]http://www.sprott.com/markets-at-a-glance/redemptions-in-the-gld-are,-oddly-enough,-bullish-for-gold/[/url] ([url]http://www.sprott.com/markets-at-a-glance/redemptions-in-the-gld-are,-oddly-enough,-bullish-for-gold/[/url])
Recent outflows from physical gold exchange traded products (we use the SPDR Gold Shares, GLD) have been interpreted by the financial press as a sign of weakness in the demand for gold as an investment vehicle.1
However, a closer look at the evidence suggests otherwise: the largest outflows in the history of the GLD (see Figure 1) started well before the large drop in the price of gold we observed on April 15th, 2013 (-9%, which represents a 1 in 11 years event)2. In fact, the net redemption of shares of GLD started as early as the second week of January 2013 (on a 3-month cumulative rolling basis). In this note, we will explore the theory that it was the shortage of physical gold and the ensuing arbitrage opportunity that drove market participants to redeem shares of GLD.
So why are the bullion banks3 that act as Authorized Participants for GLD, a group that includes JP Morgan and HSBC and others (who by-the-way were mostly bearish on gold leading to the April Crash), redeeming so many shares of GLD?
One explanation could be that they are trying to match supply and demand so that the net asset value (NAV) of the ETF is in line with its price. Historically, we have observed that large movements in and out of the GLD are associated with large discounts/premiums to NAV (Figure 2). This is due to the constant creation/redemption of the shares to minimize the discrepancies between the ETF share price and the NAV. However, the recent wave of redemptions has occurred even while the premium to NAV has been very stable, hovering around 0% for most of the year.
FIGURE 1: FLOWS IN THE GLD (TONNES) - 3 MONTH ROLLING BASIS
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11438;image[/url])
Source: SPDRgoldshares.com and Sprott Calculations.
Last Observation: May 28, 2013 (Week 22).
FIGURE 2: GLD PREMIUM TO NAV AND GOLD FLOWS
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11439;image[/url])
Source: SPDR Gold Trust, Sprott Calculations.
Note: Large flows are defined as weeks where the average % change in tonnes lies in the top or bottom 10% of its distribution (i.e. tail events).
We believe that the answer lies in the discrepancy between the paper and physical markets for gold. Over the past few months, there have been rumours of bullion bank customers unable to redeem their gold.4,5 While, at the same time, physical demand in Asia has been extremely strong this year.6,7 According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Indian imports should reach 230-400 tonnes in Q2 2013 (an increase of more than 200% year-over-year) and imports from China keep breaking records (the WGC now forecasts total Chinese imports of 880 tonnes for 2013).8 This is reflected in the large premium customers in these markets pay over the “London Fix”, the price one should be able to get for physical gold. One way to measure the extent of the demand imbalance for physical gold in Asia is to look at what has been termed the “Shanghai Premium”, which is the difference between the quoted physical gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London Fix gold price. Figure 3 above shows a weekly time series of the Shanghai premium in USD/oz. of gold. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai premium has been consistently above zero and historically large, reaching more than $50 per oz.
FIGURE 3: SHANGHAI PREMIUM (GOLD, $/OZ)
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11440;image[/url])
Source: Bloomberg. Last Observation: May 28, 2013 (Week 22).
Definition: Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 Gold (USD) minus London Gold Market Fixing Ltd - LBMA AM Fixing Price/USD.
“The Shanghai Premium is calculated on a weekly basis. Formula: (SHGF9999 Index * CNYUSD Curncy * 31.1g/oz) - GOLDLNAM Index”.
Putting the pieces together
It is clear that demand for physical gold in Asia is strong and that the price of gold in these markets is well above the “Western” price. This creates arbitrage opportunities for market participants that have access to large and cheap quantities of physical gold in the West. The bullion banks happen to be the only ones able to redeem GLD shares for gold, and the GLD, with its 1,000 tonnes of inventory, acts like a large physical gold bank.
FIGURE 4: SHANGHAI PREMIUM ($/OZ) AND GLD FLOWS
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11441;image[/url])
Source: Bloomberg, SPDR Gold Trust, Sprott Calculations.
Note: Shanghai Premium shown as a 3-month Moving Average GLD flows are rolling cummulative flows over 3 months
According to the GLD prospectus, the bullion banks can create or redeem units for as little as 10bps (0.10%). Even with transport and insurance costs (which are arguably lower for large transactions and large international banks), there is a clear arbitrage opportunity for the bullion banks when the Shanghai premium (or any other physical gold price premium in emerging markets) is as large as it has been recently.
Moreover, because of the intense demand for physical gold we have seen so far this year, it is very probable that the bullion banks themselves are in a shortage of physical gold, hence the need to use the GLD reserves.
Indeed, since 2005, there has been a strong negative correlation between GLD flows and the Shanghai Premium (-53%) (Figure 4 above). This means that large outflows (redemptions) from the GLD are typically associated with high premiums in the Shanghai gold market. This association has been particularly marked since the beginning of the year, with historically large outflows corresponding to an all-time high in the Shanghai premium.
To conclude, the evidence presented here suggests that, contrary to what has been stated in the financial press, the flows out of the SPDR Gold Trust may have been generated by the bullion banks to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity in the physical market. This arbitrage opportunity occurred because of the intense demand for gold stemming from Asia and the inability of traditional suppliers to provide this gold (hence the large Shanghai premium). We believe that this activity further supports our hypothesis that there is a lack of availability of physical gold and an obvious dislocation between the physical and paper gold markets.
In these conditions, it is not hard to imagine that prior to April 15, the bullion dealers, with their large resources, were tempted to sell large amounts of gold futures in order to lower the spot price and make the arbitrage even more profitable by increasing the spread and sparking a tsunami of buying in Asia.
To us, this is clearly a bullish signal for gold.
- [url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/gold-etp-outflows-in-2013-topadditions-[/url] ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-22/gold-etp-outflows-in-2013-topadditions-[/url]) over-past-two-years-1-.html
- We say approximately 1 in 11 years because a -9% move is about a 7 standard deviations change and, given that gold price returns follow a Student distribution with about 5 degrees of freedom, this should happen every 10 years (or 2800 trading days). Some have proclaimed that it is a much rarer event, but this would assume that gold prices follow a normal distribution, which is simply false.
- The bullion banks are: the Bank of Nova Scotia – ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank PLC, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC Bank USA, N.A., JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc., Merrill Lynch International Bank Limited, Société Générale and UBS AG.
- [url]http://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/clients-denied-gold-atmajor-[/url] ([url]http://poorrichards-blog.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/clients-denied-gold-atmajor-[/url]) banks-as.html
- [url]http://truthingold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-global-fractional-paperbullion_[/url] ([url]http://truthingold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-global-fractional-paperbullion_[/url]) 6103.html
- [url]http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/where-is-the-gold-coming-from/[/url] ([url]http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/where-is-the-gold-coming-from/[/url])
- [url]http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/the-golden-answer-to-chineseimport-[/url] ([url]http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/the-golden-answer-to-chineseimport-[/url]) data/
- [url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/gold-demand-wgcidUSL5N0E93U920130529[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/29/gold-demand-wgcidUSL5N0E93U920130529[/url])
Repara Ana a maior parte das pessoas que estao neste forum olham para os graficos e pensam os mercados ja ha alguns anos provavelmente anos demais para pensar que o melhor e mesmo seguir a tendencia de longo prazo, tentando escolher um bom ponto de entrada ( o bom neste caso e inimigo do optimo ) e saindo algumas vezes quando as correccoes sao evidentes.
porque estar sempre a sair e meio caminho andado para perder o fio a meada ...
Ana tu que ligas um pouquinho a estas coisas, será que temos a partir de hoje o Ouro em correlação inversa com os índices novamente?
QUESTION: I understand now what you have been trying to explain about gold and have suffered the slings and arrows from the Goldbugs. They have been totally discredited and you are right in saying they are not real analysts. That is why they stopped quting you. The target you gave of 1150 you said was the minimum. Is that still true? Have you seen The 8 Worst Gold Price Predictions We’ve Ever Heard
[url]http://www.businessinsider.com/ultra-bullish-gold-price-targets-2013-4#ixzz2XRTD23G3[/url] ([url]http://www.businessinsider.com/ultra-bullish-gold-price-targets-2013-4#ixzz2XRTD23G3[/url])
ANSWER: Yes. we are approaching the minimum target in the proper time period June 2013. This is simply the way all markets behave. The bulk of the decline comes within the first 2 years. Gold is finally capitulating as the decline has been on HEAVY volume of liquidating long positions. Our Monthly Bearish Reversals are 1236, 1155, 1042, and 930. These define the key support levels. Our Weekly Bearish is 1233 then 1197, 1185, 1176, 1166. The optimum target is the bottom of the channel so we are looking at 1040 area to 1020 with the major support at 939-930.
Gold rush 2013 style has Dubai scrambling
James Doran
[url]http://www.thenational.ae/business/industry-insights/markets/gold-rush-2013-style-has-dubai-scrambling[/url] ([url]http://www.thenational.ae/business/industry-insights/markets/gold-rush-2013-style-has-dubai-scrambling[/url])
There is not enough space on airlines flying in to Dubai to meet the rapidly rising demand for physical gold in the emirate since the price plunged to record lows this week.
The price drop led to a rush of buyers for Dubai gold from the Middle East, South East Asia, the Balkans, Turkey and parts of Europe according to Tarek El Mdaka, the managing director of Kaloti Gold in Dubai.
"I cannot find a place for transporting gold on Emirates, on BA on Swiss Airlines this weekend," Mr El Mdaka said. "I am shipping in one-and-a-half to two tonnes of gold every day and it is going straight out."
Mr El Mdaka added that gold is in such short supply in Dubai that he is able to charge a US$3 premium per ounce. "In the last week or so that has gone up from $1.25, $1.50 to $1.75. But now it is $3. We are really squeezed."
Physical gold from Dubai has been selling strongly since the price of the yellow metal first plunged in April. But this week it has taken another historic tumble, creating a buying opportunity for small- time investors looking for gold bars, coins and bullion.
Yesterday the price edged up a little with the spot price rising 0.5 per cent in early trading to $1,232 an ounce. On Wednesday, however, it fell 4 per cent to $1,221.80, the lowest price in three years, capping a 12 per cent decline in the past eight trading sessions.
Some parts of the Dubai market are not so buoyant as those in which Kaloti operates, however.
Gerhard Schubert, the head of precious metals trading at Emirates NBD said that grades of gold known as 995, which would ordinarily be sold into the Indian market, are currently stuck in Dubai.
The Indian government has implemented import restrictions that have been backed up by the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation in an effort to shore up the tumbling rupee.
"A lot of India's gold comes in from Dubai and all of that is stuck here right now," Mr Schubert said.
Mr El Mdaka, who does not sell into the Indian market, agreed. "The squeeze on physical gold in India would have a big effect on Dubai. Luckily though, there is a lot of demand coming from the rest of the world to soak it up," he said.
Gold Demand Extraordinary In Vietnam – Paying $217 Premium Over Spot
By Mark O’Byrne
On 17 June 2013
[url]http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/gold-demand-extraordinary-vietnam-%E2%80%93-paying-217-premium-over-spot[/url] ([url]http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/gold-demand-extraordinary-vietnam-%E2%80%93-paying-217-premium-over-spot[/url])
[...]
The Vietnamese Central Bank sold another 25,700 taels (1 tael = 37.5 grams or 1.2 troy ounces) at a gold bar auction on Friday in order to try and satiate the massive public demand for gold in Vietnam.
The Central Bank hopes that the sale of gold into the market will reduce the very high premiums paid by gold buyers in Vietnam, the largest buyer of gold in Southeast Asia after Thailand and one of the largest physical buyers of gold per capita in the world.
Vietnamese people hold gold as a store of wealth for protection against war, inflation and currency depreciation. In recent months, the bursting of bubbles in the stock market (see chart) and property market and the continuing devaluation of the dong has led to record demand in Vietnam and a surging premium over the spot price of gold.
Today, the premium was close to 5.5 million dong which is the equivalent of a very high premium of $217 per ounce over spot.
[...]
Gold rush as Lao prices drop
Asia News Network
Thu, Jun 27, 2013
[url]http://sg.news.yahoo.com/gold-rush-lao-prices-drop-060002085.html[/url] ([url]http://sg.news.yahoo.com/gold-rush-lao-prices-drop-060002085.html[/url])
Vientiane [capital do Laos] (Vientiane Times/ANN) - The recent drop in gold prices on the Lao market has brought buyers out in droves to purchase gold jewellery while it remains cheap.
According to gold shops in Vientiane, sale prices yesterday were at 5,060,000 kip (US$655) per baht-weight for gold jewellery - down about 500,000 kip per baht-weight on previous months.
Buying prices yesterday closed at 4,812,500 kip per baht-weight.
On world markets, gold prices in New York fell by 6.9 per cent or US$87.80 to US$1,286.20 per ounce on June 20.
Meanwhile on the Hong Kong exchange, prices fell to US$1,290.20 per ounce from US$1,336.80 per ounce on June 21.
According to gold traders, large numbers of buyers have visited gold shops in Vientiane to purchase gold jewellery and bars as an investment.
Some shops at the Talatsao Mall were stripped bare of all of their wares as a result of the gold rush.
neste momento a tendencia de longo prazo é descendente
Citarneste momento a tendencia de longo prazo é descendente
ja agora fica a fota de longo prazo do Ouro para se ver se estamos todos a olhar para a mesma coisa ... ( se isto nao e Bull ::)
como investimento faz muito mais sentido comprar um ETF, eh muito mais pratico e liquido
se nao queres o ETF pq achas que te queres defenderes do apocalipse entao porque deixar as barras com o banco
não sei cp, ele ainda anda ali, há q tentar ver bem o q quer fazer. tb estou com pouco tempo para isto, a ber se faz algo na proxima hora
As barras não se devem desviar muito da cotação spot. Num banco devem estar próximas dessa cotação, mas o melhor local seria se conseguísses um contacto amigo numa loja que compre ouro. Nesse caso eventualmente conseguirias as barras a um ligeiro desconto para a cotação spot do ouro.
Para além de umas casas "meio manhosas " que vendem tens o BCP que continua a vender, pelo menos até à semana passada um amigo meu comprou, onde tens garantias que não estás a comprar "gato por lebre", digio eu.....
Contrariamente aos ETFs, no CEF não há um mecanismo directo para sifonar o ouro do fundo pois não é possível converter baskets de shares por barras de ouro. Todavia continuas a ter o risco fiduciário no provável cenário do "ouro" convergir para o seu intrínseco, pois é o "ouro" que valoriza as reservas de ouro do CEF. Enquanto o ouro for valorizado pela última cotação conhecida do "ouro", i.e. ainda não houver uma cotação de mercado do ouro [em 1ª aproximação deverá ser uma cotação da ordem da cotação actual do "ouro" multiplicada pela alavancagem no mercado do "ouro"] a tentação por parte dos gestores do fundo em fechá-lo e em te pagarem a última cotação conhecida [e legal] deverá ser bastante grande...
Se o ouro não tem valor porque é que os governos têm fortes bem guardados cheios de ouro?
Gold Update
By: Ned Naylor-Leyland
Cheviot Asset Management Limited
[url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url] ([url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url])
In light of the deep sell-off in the Gold price, I present 3 charts to clarify what has (and hasn’t) happened. Chart 1 is a chart of Spot Gold, the second an illustration of what makes up the daily ‘Gold’ market, the third shows the enormous flow of physical metal from West to East in the context of Global mine supply. There is an ongoing clash between the forces of paper supply and physical demand – paper supply has won the latest round, but its objective of satisfying and slaking demand for the real metal has failed entirely.
The spot price graph is annotated with events that have happened since Q3 2012. All of these points (1-6) seem pertinent when evaluating the sell-off in paper Gold, but none more so than the entry of the Gold market into a state of permanent backwardation around a year ago (1). With vast above ground inventories (supposedly) available to borrow, the Gold and Silver markets should not offer a risk-free arbitrage for any amount of time. The fact that it has remained and widened over a year indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid in Shanghai and Delhi (in Delhi dealers are paying over a 25% premium for NNS 8g fine Gold vs 2% in Q4 2012) and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage (2 tons or above).
- Why did Germany do a massive and highly embarrassing U-turn about its sovereign Gold reserves being held in New York?
- Why did the NY Fed then say it would take 7 years to return that Gold?
- Wouldn’t the reality of bank deposits being lined up for bank ‘bail-ins’ be exceptionally bullish for a liability-free form of wealth preservation?
- What does the scale of interest in buying physical in Asia (growing rapidly) mean for the dynamics of price discovery going forwards? Is it sustainable for nigh on all this year’s physical Gold mine supply to have been delivered through one small futures market in Shanghai?
None of these questions have been satisfactorily answered by sellers, or bears, of Precious Metals who focus solely on the ‘spot price’ without reference to the ‘spot mechanism’. Few understand what money flows come together to create the ‘spot price’ of Gold. My Chart of Daily Volumes shows the Gold investment ‘market’ up for what it really is – a vast, sprawling, OTC and almost totally unregulated dark pool.
It seems evident to me that as backwardation first started to properly grip the bullion market mid last year (where the shaded area of the graph starts), the playbook to manage the Gold price went into overdrive. In light of the backwardation between spot and the front month, the spot price duly broke out from its consolidation pattern (see purple annotation). This was a ‘code red’ signal for the bullion banking system, I wrote about it last year although I felt the inevitable disconnect would happen in a rising rather than falling price environment. Everything that followed from Point 1 should be observed in light of this crucial ongoing silence from the Golden canary in the fiat coalmine.
GOLDS Comdty (GOLD SPOT $/OZ)
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11961;image[/url])
Source: Bloomberg. As of 02/07/13
To understand what is meant by that, let us look at the‘Gold’ market in context of average daily volumes in currency markets. Gold is a huge and misunderstood market. Most investors see it as a ‘simple’ asset class and assume broadly that, outside of futures and options, the market is 1:1 backed by physical metal.Nothing could be further from the truth. The ETF market is nominally backed 1:1, but in terms of daily volumes represents a meagre 1-2% overall. The rest is split between the COMEX futures market and the OTC ‘loco London’ currency pair market, where banks and investors cross vast amounts of money against Gold, generally without allocated metal backing. If the LBMA want to come out from behind the curtain and talk about true bullion inventories versus traded volumes then I would happily assess that data, but for the time being they prefer to remain conveniently opaque. The best information we have is from The Reserve Bank of India, an LBMA member, who state that the OTC market and futures and options are 92xgreater than the underlying physical market. The ratio expressed in my adapted ‘Daily Volumes in Context’ chart pretty much confirms the best-guess RBI leverage ratio. Considering that the Bank of England is worried about Barclays’ leverage ratio (having risen to the giddy heights of 40:1 again with the need for a minimum of £8bn in fresh capital asap) I find it extraordinary that investors do not notice that the Gold price is presently defined by a market which operates using around a 90:1 leverage ratio. This cannot, and will not, end well for holders of synthetic Gold, or the banking system overall. Indeed, the recent raids onthe spot price have just brought forward the day of reckoning for the present price discovery mechanism by stimulating yet further draw downs on physical inventories.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11962;image[/url])
As of 02/07/13
Most of the purchasers of ‘Gold’ in f/x markets (ticker XAU) have no physical backing to their trades(estimated to be around 90% unallocated). This is the nature of the OTC ‘Gold’ currency market.Considering that most people invest in Gold exactly because they fear the fractional reserve nature of the banking system, this is a bizarre state of affairs and I believe has led us to the widening backwardation we now see as the new ‘normal’. What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable ‘run’ on the 100:1leveraged Bullion banking system is truly underway.The bullion banks want to get Gold back into contango and stop the movement of the remaining inventories by shaking the market lower, using paper leverage to do so. It hasn’t worked, indeed more and more investors are now seeking allocation, delivery and physical metal at the expense of synthetic products offered by the banks. The squeeze we have been waiting for is closing in, it is always darkest just before dawn.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11963;image[/url])
As of 28/06/13
Ned Naylor-Leyland
July 2013
Para investir, é má ideia comprar ouro físico pois os spreads entre a compra e a venda serão elevados.
Para investir, é má ideia comprar ouro físico pois os spreads entre a compra e a venda serão elevados.
convém ter algo físico para uma situação de catástrofe ou pensas que não e que paper money é seguro?
Para investir, é má ideia comprar ouro físico pois os spreads entre a compra e a venda serão elevados.
convém ter algo físico para uma situação de catástrofe ou pensas que não e que paper money é seguro?
Numa situação em que o papel não sirva também ninguém quererá ouro. Para isso mais vale comprar armas e enlatados.
Antes de haver hiperinflação tens inflação. E nesse caso as acções servem bem.
O não gostarem é relativo, até podem cair inicialmente, mas depois sobem pois tudo nas empresas é nominal (vendas, resultados, etc). Um período de inflação ou hiperinflação vai ser seguido de subida das acções.
As vendas não diminuem, se antes registavam uma batata a $1 e depois a registam a $1000 as vendas aumentam brutalmente. De resto mercado como o Brazil no início dos anos 90 ou o Zimbabwe mais recentemente mostram isso, subindo alucinantemente em termos nominais.
O ouro transacciona em algum mercado organizado? Não me parece que exista uma resposta sólida para isso ...
O ouro transacciona em algum mercado organizado? Não me parece que exista uma resposta sólida para isso ...
Então é possivel neste broker ter acontecido a cotaçao de 1252,000?
In India, An Old Profession Is Fashionable Again: The Gold Mule
By: Saritha Rai
8/08/2013 @ 6:16AM
[url]http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2013/08/08/in-india-an-old-profession-is-fashionable-again-the-gold-mule/[/url] ([url]http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2013/08/08/in-india-an-old-profession-is-fashionable-again-the-gold-mule/[/url])
It’s back to the 1980s in India. The government’s effort to rein in gold imports to ease a yawning trade deficit has led to the revival of an old-fashioned Indian profession: the gold courier. A mule arriving at the Delhi airport was caught with 9 kgs of gold, another in Chennai with 16 kgs and a third in Bangalore with 3 kgs of gold, all in the past few days.
Last week, the managing director of a Singapore-based jewelry store was intercepted at the Mumbai airport with $400,000 worth of jewelry concealed in her lingerie. The authorities said Vihari Poddar ([url]http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-08-02/mumbai/41005500_1_jewellery-dri-officials-crore[/url]) had tried to smuggle it in on behalf of a local jeweler and had made several similar runs previously. Poddar, who belongs to the illustrious Mumbai industrial family that owns fabric maker Siyaram Silk Mills, is now in judicial custody.
Poddar’s arrest illustrates that the gold mule is back in business. Sneaking in contraband gold for a commission has become a lucrative again, inadvertently boosted by the government’s tough control measures. Indian newspapers are full of reports on the mules’ inventive ways ([url]http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Mumbai/Unique-gold-smuggling-bid-foiled/Article1-1094767.aspx[/url]). One fashioned luggage handles out of the costly metal. Another hid it inside the frame of a wheelchair.
Gold smugglers and couriers enjoyed their heyday in the 1980s and had even been immortalized as villains in popular Bollywood films. But the profession faded away after India’s economic liberalization.
With its trade deficit ballooning, the government hiked import duty on gold twice recently. Import of gold coins and bars is banned. All of this has brought about a resurgence in gold smuggling as the metal is nearly 10% more expensive inside India. Customs and revenue intelligence officials recorded a 365% jump ([url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Indias-seizure-of-smuggled-gold-soars-365-in-first-quarter/articleshow/21400238.cms[/url]) in gold smuggling in the first quarter of the year.
Indians are the world’s biggest buyers and hoarders of gold, and the precious metal is the country’s second largest import after oil. Indians love to flaunt gold at weddings, salt away the metal and take loans against it when in need. The recent volatility in gold prices in international markets has not dampened gold-buying ([url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/hnis-undeterred-from-gold-investing-despite-price-correction/1143337/[/url]) fervor in India. Officials predicted that the approaching wedding season would lead to a fresh spurt of activity by gold mules.
No longo prazo temos uma LTA e uma resistência nesta zona.
Resta esperar e ver se vai reagir a estes preço e continuar a descida que iniciou há quase um ano ou furar as resistências consistentemente para entrarmos em numa fase de bull (diria que passando os 1480).
([url]http://charts.mql5.com/2/395/xauusd-w1-ironfx-financial-services.png[/url])
Já agora aproveito para colocar uma situação interessante, normalmente Bear no Graf do 1H do Xauusd. Foi quebrada a LTA de curto prazo e está a retestá-la.
Cromio, se LTA - Linha de Tendencia Ascendente
Não queria dizer, LTD - Linha de Tendencia Descendente ?
A questão que coloca é se a LTA de curto prazo se continuar a ser verdadeira, vai cruzar e romper em alta a LTD de longo prazo. É isso ?
Já agora aproveito para colocar uma situação interessante, normalmente Bear no Graf do 1H do Xauusd. Foi quebrada a LTA de curto prazo e está a retestá-la.
Hummm.... não acho o GOLD Bear de curto prazo, a queda ainda nem chegou ao maximo de 19 de Agosto. Por agora parece-me um retracement normal
Já agora aproveito para colocar uma situação interessante, normalmente Bear no Graf do 1H do Xauusd. Foi quebrada a LTA de curto prazo e está a retestá-la.
Hummm.... não acho o GOLD Bear de curto prazo, a queda ainda nem chegou ao maximo de 19 de Agosto. Por agora parece-me um retracement normal
Não há um graphizinho a justificar o Hummmm ... :)
Já agora aproveito para colocar uma situação interessante, normalmente Bear no Graf do 1H do Xauusd. Foi quebrada a LTA de curto prazo e está a retestá-la.
Hummm.... não acho o GOLD Bear de curto prazo, a queda ainda nem chegou ao maximo de 19 de Agosto. Por agora parece-me um retracement normal
Não há um graphizinho a justificar o Hummmm ... :)
Cá está um grafico. O GOLD foi superando patamares, o máximo que eu referi é onde meti a linha verde.
Vejo ainda uma UpTrend de curto prazo, concordas?
jeab, fiquei a pensar nisto e não entendo, a UpTren actual começou mais ou menos nos 1273, é uma Trend de curto prazo, até aqui penso que estamos de acordo. Não entendo é porque não posso ver essa Trend no chart Diário, ou é só uma questão de Lts? Eu ligo pouco a essas linhas, ligo mais à quebra de suportes/resistencias, i.e., linhas horizontais.
Bem, eu comprei quando abriram nos states, por isso espero bem que não se concretize o fim da Trend, senão...... :D
jeab, fiquei a pensar nisto e não entendo, a UpTren actual começou mais ou menos nos 1273, é uma Trend de curto prazo, até aqui penso que estamos de acordo. Não entendo é porque não posso ver essa Trend no chart Diário, ou é só uma questão de Lts? Eu ligo pouco a essas linhas, ligo mais à quebra de suportes/resistencias, i.e., linhas horizontais.
UpTren actual começou mais ou menos nos 1273, é uma Trend de curto prazo
É só uma questão de Lts. É uma lta do 1H que quando muito pode ser vista no time acima, o 4H, mas no Diário não tem significado.
Aqui vai o 4H com os ranges e a lta do 1H, vista no 4H.
O reteste à lta ainda está activo ... claro que pode vir a ser um falso breakdown da lta, mas para isso amplio essa zona e vou ver no Time Frame abaixo o de 15M e aí já tenho uma down trend. Enquanto essa down trend de 15M estiver activa, o retrocesso do preço mantém-se.
Aqui fica uma pergunta de um leigo em AT.
Olhando para o gráfico do ouro, vê-se que desde o mínimo de 3 de Julho, subiu gradualmente e já leva 2 meses de subida gradual. Não será que isto é contrário à tese de que ele está numa "dead cat bounce"? Parece-me que as dead cat bounces são muito repentinas, subidas de 10-20% em poucos dias, e não os 2 meses graduais que se viram.
Isto é só uma pergunta.
e o ouro a levar com duas sessões para baixo tal como disse antes de ontem
não, não entrei curto, porque já estou investido a mais longo prazo em ETF´sPosso perguntar em que ETF s?
bye bye ourito :)
estava a ver que nunca mais se decidiam, xiça
e se derepente cair a pique... ;D
Deixem pousar mais um pouquinho a poeira, é uma questão de tempo. Quem negoceia tem de ser duro.
JeaB Obrigado!
Deixem pousar mais um pouquinho a poeira, é uma questão de tempo. Quem negoceia tem de ser duro.
JeaB Obrigado!
pal não confundir dureza com obstinação. E claro, depende de qual time se está a querer tradar. O Time frame mensal continua claramente ascendente, mas o diário está descendente, por exemplo.
Deixem pousar mais um pouquinho a poeira, é uma questão de tempo. Quem negoceia tem de ser duro.
JeaB Obrigado!
pal não confundir dureza com obstinação. E claro, depende de qual time se está a querer tradar. O Time frame mensal continua claramente ascendente, mas o diário está descendente, por exemplo.
no time mensal inverteu em abril... penso :-\
...uma coisa é afirmar outra é prever sem data marcada :P
e se derepente cair a pique...
Citare se derepente cair a pique...
o valor do ouro continua bem sustentado... nas politicas do Fed.
enquanto o USD continuar a ser maltratado por sucessivas politicas de Q.E nao existe grandes motivos para o ouro cair a pique.
Hermes o que entendes por "ouro" e ouro ?
ouro sera o activo subjacente e "ouro" o contracto derivado ?
sendo assim se o contracto permitir ter a opcao de ficar com ativo nao te parece que se o ouro subir muito em relacao ao "ouro" oferecera oportunidades de arbitragem que depois tendem a anular o gap ?
Segue-se um artigo interessante do Ned Naylor-Leyland pela comparação do mercado do "ouro" com as outras divisas, bem como a alavancagem estimada do mercado do "ouro" feita pelo RBI [Reserve Bank of India] e membro da LBMA [London Bullion Market Association] que se cifra em 92x. Para pôr as coisas em perpectiva, há que relembrar a comparação do mercado do "ouro" com o mercado da mais líquida das commodities aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg63553.html#msg63553[/url]) e aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg63556.html#msg63556[/url]), onde se viu que a cada dia transaciona 1/12 da produção mundial anual de petróleo e 1/4 da produção mundial anual de ouro.CitarGold Update
By: Ned Naylor-Leyland
Cheviot Asset Management Limited
[url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url] ([url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url])
In light of the deep sell-off in the Gold price, I present 3 charts to clarify what has (and hasn’t) happened. Chart 1 is a chart of Spot Gold, the second an illustration of what makes up the daily ‘Gold’ market, the third shows the enormous flow of physical metal from West to East in the context of Global mine supply. There is an ongoing clash between the forces of paper supply and physical demand – paper supply has won the latest round, but its objective of satisfying and slaking demand for the real metal has failed entirely.
The spot price graph is annotated with events that have happened since Q3 2012. All of these points (1-6) seem pertinent when evaluating the sell-off in paper Gold, but none more so than the entry of the Gold market into a state of permanent backwardation around a year ago (1). With vast above ground inventories (supposedly) available to borrow, the Gold and Silver markets should not offer a risk-free arbitrage for any amount of time. The fact that it has remained and widened over a year indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid in Shanghai and Delhi (in Delhi dealers are paying over a 25% premium for NNS 8g fine Gold vs 2% in Q4 2012) and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage (2 tons or above).
- Why did Germany do a massive and highly embarrassing U-turn about its sovereign Gold reserves being held in New York?
- Why did the NY Fed then say it would take 7 years to return that Gold?
- Wouldn’t the reality of bank deposits being lined up for bank ‘bail-ins’ be exceptionally bullish for a liability-free form of wealth preservation?
- What does the scale of interest in buying physical in Asia (growing rapidly) mean for the dynamics of price discovery going forwards? Is it sustainable for nigh on all this year’s physical Gold mine supply to have been delivered through one small futures market in Shanghai?
None of these questions have been satisfactorily answered by sellers, or bears, of Precious Metals who focus solely on the ‘spot price’ without reference to the ‘spot mechanism’. Few understand what money flows come together to create the ‘spot price’ of Gold. My Chart of Daily Volumes shows the Gold investment ‘market’ up for what it really is – a vast, sprawling, OTC and almost totally unregulated dark pool.
It seems evident to me that as backwardation first started to properly grip the bullion market mid last year (where the shaded area of the graph starts), the playbook to manage the Gold price went into overdrive. In light of the backwardation between spot and the front month, the spot price duly broke out from its consolidation pattern (see purple annotation). This was a ‘code red’ signal for the bullion banking system, I wrote about it last year although I felt the inevitable disconnect would happen in a rising rather than falling price environment. Everything that followed from Point 1 should be observed in light of this crucial ongoing silence from the Golden canary in the fiat coalmine.
GOLDS Comdty (GOLD SPOT $/OZ)
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11961;image[/url])
Source: Bloomberg. As of 02/07/13
To understand what is meant by that, let us look at the‘Gold’ market in context of average daily volumes in currency markets. Gold is a huge and misunderstood market. Most investors see it as a ‘simple’ asset class and assume broadly that, outside of futures and options, the market is 1:1 backed by physical metal.Nothing could be further from the truth. The ETF market is nominally backed 1:1, but in terms of daily volumes represents a meagre 1-2% overall. The rest is split between the COMEX futures market and the OTC ‘loco London’ currency pair market, where banks and investors cross vast amounts of money against Gold, generally without allocated metal backing. If the LBMA want to come out from behind the curtain and talk about true bullion inventories versus traded volumes then I would happily assess that data, but for the time being they prefer to remain conveniently opaque. The best information we have is from The Reserve Bank of India, an LBMA member, who state that the OTC market and futures and options are 92xgreater than the underlying physical market. The ratio expressed in my adapted ‘Daily Volumes in Context’ chart pretty much confirms the best-guess RBI leverage ratio. Considering that the Bank of England is worried about Barclays’ leverage ratio (having risen to the giddy heights of 40:1 again with the need for a minimum of £8bn in fresh capital asap) I find it extraordinary that investors do not notice that the Gold price is presently defined by a market which operates using around a 90:1 leverage ratio. This cannot, and will not, end well for holders of synthetic Gold, or the banking system overall. Indeed, the recent raids onthe spot price have just brought forward the day of reckoning for the present price discovery mechanism by stimulating yet further draw downs on physical inventories.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11962;image[/url])
As of 02/07/13
Most of the purchasers of ‘Gold’ in f/x markets (ticker XAU) have no physical backing to their trades(estimated to be around 90% unallocated). This is the nature of the OTC ‘Gold’ currency market.Considering that most people invest in Gold exactly because they fear the fractional reserve nature of the banking system, this is a bizarre state of affairs and I believe has led us to the widening backwardation we now see as the new ‘normal’. What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable ‘run’ on the 100:1leveraged Bullion banking system is truly underway.The bullion banks want to get Gold back into contango and stop the movement of the remaining inventories by shaking the market lower, using paper leverage to do so. It hasn’t worked, indeed more and more investors are now seeking allocation, delivery and physical metal at the expense of synthetic products offered by the banks. The squeeze we have been waiting for is closing in, it is always darkest just before dawn.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11963;image[/url])
As of 28/06/13
Ned Naylor-Leyland
July 2013
Ps. Quanto ao short squeese que o Ned espera, veremos qual será a cotação das roupas do rei quando as crianças começarem a dizer que o rei vai nu...
Quando tens uma alavancagem de 92x no mercado do ouro e quando 1/4 da produção anual de ouro transacciona por dia em Londres [LBMA] e esse 1/4 é net, adivinha para onde vai o "ouro" quando o ouro e o "ouro" se divorciarem.
CitarQuando tens uma alavancagem de 92x no mercado do ouro e quando 1/4 da produção anual de ouro transacciona por dia em Londres [LBMA] e esse 1/4 é net, adivinha para onde vai o "ouro" quando o ouro e o "ouro" se divorciarem.
uma coisa e afirmar-se que a enorme massa de dinheiro que aflui para o ouro via contractos, poder levar o valor desses contractos para onde "quiser" - o mercado esta totalmente monetarizado e basta que o dinheiro que aflui , saia desse mercado para que a cotacao do " ouro " caia para valores muito baixos -
outra coisa e totalmente diferente e pretender -se dissociar a cotacao do ouro e do " ouro "
mesmo que temporariamente isso possa acontecer a cotacao " ouro" e do ouro estao tendencialmente e intrinsecamente relacionados.
basta que exista a possibilidade de nos contractos derivados se exercer a opcao de tomada do activo na maturidade para que o "ouro" e o ouro nao possam estar muito tempo com valores dissociados;
como investimento faz muito mais sentido comprar um ETF, eh muito mais pratico e liquido
se nao queres o ETF pq achas que te queres defenderes do apocalipse entao porque deixar as barras com o banco
Os ETFs é a coisa mais parecida com ouro, para quem queira fazer trading.
Para investimento de longo prazo, há riscos que é preferível minimizar, nomeadamente o dos gestores desses fundos não cumprirem com o seu dever fiduciário e interessarem-se apenas pela sua carteira [só os ingénuos acreditam que primeiro estão os clientes].
Vamos lá então explicar devagarinho o risco fiduciário em jogo, para ver se desta vez compreendem.
Já aqui tinha mencionado que o Ocidente versus Oriente e Médio Oriente compram coisas diferentes a que chamam ouro ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg56176.html#msg56176[/url]). Ora, a dinâmica nestas duas geografias é diferente. Os primeiros transacionam "ouro" e puseram o seu ouro a trabalhar via leasings desda década de 80 [aliás, os futuros sobre o ouro é uma invenção recente (anos 80) e foi isso que obrigou os Hunt brothers ([url]http://www.traderslog.com/hunt-brothers-silver/[/url]) a transaccionarem substitutos menos nobres, com maus resultados, pois o governo americano não os deixou falir os bullion banks... pois é, as leis mudam-se conforme as necessidades] e assim a prolongar trends. Já os últimos torcem o nariz a preços altos e desatam a correr aos saldos com ovações [ver aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg56176.html#msg56176[/url]) e aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg68975.html#msg68975[/url]) por exemplo]. Graças a esta dinâmica, só os indianos conseguiram acumular 20 000 toneladas de ouro ([url]http://www.financialexpress.com/news/indians-hoard-20k-tonnes-gold-worth-record-1.16-trn/1037761/0[/url]) [sem aspas], i.e. cerca de 1/6 do ouro existente à face da Terra. [Enfim, mais uma vez está prestes a cumprir-se a Palavra: "Os primeiros serão os últimos e os últimos serão os primeiros". :D]
O resultado deste confronto de civilisações e respectivas noções sobre o que é ouro é a hemorragia das reservas dos bullion banks e do ouro privado, seja do bulião via leasings inicialmente para por o ouro a trabalhar para gerar yield, seja das jóias do Ocidente via cash for gold na última década. O GATA tem uma falha de discernimento aqui, pois acredita que quando for revelada a nudez dos Bullion Banks o ouro vai para infinito e ficarão podres de ricos. Não percebo como lhes cabe no discernimento que quando o "ouro" não puder ser transformado em ouro os dois preços ainda vão continuar casados, quando o que é de esperar é o divórcio com o "ouro" a convergir para o seu valor intrínseco [zero]. Os Bullion Banks não têm salvação, pois o sistema não é fechado [os Bullion Bnks estão no Ocidente e o ouro está e caminha para o Oriente e Médio Oriente] pois assim o ouro só tem um v [vai, mas não volta].
Tendo em conta o mais que provável divórcio entre o preço do ouro e do "ouro" é necessário um grande salto de fé para acreditar que os gestores desses fundos cumpram com o seu dever fiduciário e não fechem os estaminé pagando-te o preço a que o "ouro" cota [última cotação conhecida enquanto ainda não há uma cotação para o ouro].
Ps. isto não é nenhum apocalipse, excepto, eventualmente para quem compre ETFs. ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif[/url])
Para quem quer estar longo em GLD ou ouro, vale mais a pena estar longo em CEF, já que este está a descontro para o NAV e investe essencialmente em ouro e prata.
Para quem quer estar longo em GLD ou ouro, vale mais a pena estar longo em CEF, já que este está a descontro para o NAV e investe essencialmente em ouro e prata.
O GLD não é uma opção para as formigas, pois estas estão sujeitas ao risco fiduciário [ver mensagem anterior], pois as suas mãozinhas são demasiado pequeninas para segurar barras tão grandes, i.e. não têm dinheiro suficiente para converter os seus títulos em barras de 11.3398093 kg, pelo que estão meramente a transaccionar ilusões.
O CEF tem o problema de estar atulhado de prata e eu não creio que esta venha a ter qq papel no próximo sistema monetário. Há um banqueiro central que vai sacrificar o sistema menetário presente para mostrar que está a fazer alguma coisa e o respectivo governo, quando começar as ver consequências não se vai opor, pois nestas está a solução de todos os seus problemas e como cereja em cima do bolo, pode lançar as culpas para o banqueiro central...
As razões porque não acredito que a prata venha a ter qq papel no próximo sistema monetário são as seguintes:
- Os banqueiros centrais e o Oriente e Médio Oriente já fezeram a sua escolha [os tais 2/3].
- Para que os humanos se consigam por de acordo nalguma coisa, o denominador comum tem de ser muito baixo, pelo que não é de esperar grande criatividade no que é / representa valor.
Quando os silver bugs descobrirem que as suas espadas de prata não têm qq efeito no próximo sistema monetário, vão livrar-se delas em massa, i.e. muitos anos de produção vão entrar instantaneamente no mercado... Uma das indústrias que deverá prosperar será a dos talheres de prata, não porque alguém ainda acredite que esta seja um metal "precioso", mas porque será mais barato que os talheres de inox. :D
Caso saibam de outros sectores onde a prata seja uma commodity importante para a formação do preço final do produto vendido, digam, que eu sou todo ouvidos.
ouro a partir-se todo ...
a ber q faz aqui na anterior base de c.p.
O ouro vai aos 900 Hermes??
Que valores apontam para o ouro até ao final do Ano ?
O ouro vai aos 900 Hermes??
Que valores apontam para o ouro até ao final do Ano ?
Para onde vai o ouro depende de que ouro estás a falar.
Os 900 dizem respeito às reservas remanescentes do Banco Central de facto dos bullion banks: o GLD. Aliás quem encheu os cofres do GLD [a venda do ouro de Sua Majestade (BOE) e a venda do ouro dos suíços (SNB), pois o ouro é fungível] já não está disposto a fazê-lo... Agora é só unir os pontos.
e a prata (SLV) hermes, achas que vai pelo mesmo caminho?
então e como fazer para comprar ouro eletronicamente?
Nasruddin and the Smell of Soup
One day, a poor man, who had only one piece of bread to eat, was walking past a restaurant. There was a large pot of soup on the table. The poor man held his bread over the soup, so the steam from the soup went into the bread, and gave it a good smell. Then he ate the bread.
The restaurant owner was very angry at this, and he asked the man for money, in exchange for the steam from the soup. The poor man had no money, so the restaurant owner took him to Nasruddin, who was a judge at that time. Nasruddin thought about the case for a little while.
Then he took some money from his pocket. He held the coins next to the restaurant owner's ear, and shook them, so that they made a jingling noise.
"What was that?" asked the restaurant owner.
"That was payment for you," answered Nasruddin.
"What do you mean? That was just the sound of coins!" protested the restaurant owner.
"The sound of the coins is payment for the smell of the soup," answered Nasruddin. "Now go back to your restaurant."
“Quoted gold prices are like a coat check room at a nice hotel. Imagine that over time things develop so that there are 60-100 coat check tickets for every coat in the coat room.
If the insiders that ran the coat room suddenly realized that the value of coats was much greater than the quoted price, what should happen? The supply of physical coats should fall & the “price” of coat check tickets should fall as well as insiders realize that with 60-100x leverage, 59-99% of the coat check tickets are actually worthless because there aren’t coats to back them.
Think about the bank run on George Bailey’s bank in ‘It’s a Wonderful Life.’ How many people get 100% of their deposit claim checks? Only one, right? Everyone else that wants immediate access to their claim check takes a BIG haircut to the ‘face value’ of that claim. What you are watching in gold markets is a slow-motion version of a classic bank run on a highly-levered depository.”
"In the summer of 2007, the BSC subprime mortgage hedge fund basically went to $0, and the message to the markets should have been that 'big chunks of the subprime market are worthless.' But that message at the time was so extreme that very few traded off it.
Similarly, the Cyprus bail-in math (10 tons of Cypriot gold for $10B from ESM, IMF) would suggest that physical gold collateral is worth $31,250/oz in a crisis and that most, but not all, market participants are discounting it because it is such an extreme number.'
It probably is extreme, but some big smart people are buying gold like it is not so extreme, in much the same way that some of those same big smart people turned big sellers of subprime protection right after the BSC mortgage hedge fund blow up.”
"I think if something 'breaks' in gold markets, the COMEX futures, and perhaps other futures exchanges, would be settled out at the prior last trade, in cash."
"Global physical trading patterns are hitting critical tipping points whereby emerging markets are becoming the lion’s share of some global goods and services demand/production and oil demand. And they have NO interest in maintaining the status quo, because they appear to be acutely aware of the fact that the Anglo-American 'exorbitant privilege' has been funded directly by their sweat equity.
Or to put it more bluntly, why would the BRICs want to settle their trades between themselves in dollars so that they can help to fund their own military encirclement that has consistently acted against their interests?”
"For the 1st time we have someone big enough, in both economic size and military strength, to break the status quo, the means to do so by moving physical trade settlement amongst themselves away from USD, and the motive of satisfying intense domestic political desires to improve living standards for their people and to obtain more control over the basis for settlement of commodities, which among other things would result in lower oil prices."
"The most likely scenario is that physical gold goes up to a really, really big number in some sort of global currency system reset, thereby completely collateralizing most of the sovereign debt out there.
Gold miners go up a lot, but not as much as physical gold because the governments will effectively seize them and turn them into public utilities complete with annual dividends that are probably equal to a big percentage of current miner share prices."
Estás a fazer vista grossa à alavancagem e a fazer de conta que ela não está lá.
O problema é que o mercado do ouro é dois em um:
•Cerca de 2/3 dos humanos compram ouro e cerca de 1/3 compra "ouro".
•Pior ainda, os 2/3 compram ouro quando o ouro está barato [e essencialmente não vendem] e o 1/3 compra "ouro" quando o "ouro" está caro / a subir em flecha.
CitarEstás a fazer vista grossa à alavancagem e a fazer de conta que ela não está lá.
O problema é que o mercado do ouro é dois em um:
•Cerca de 2/3 dos humanos compram ouro e cerca de 1/3 compra "ouro".
•Pior ainda, os 2/3 compram ouro quando o ouro está barato [e essencialmente não vendem] e o 1/3 compra "ouro" quando o "ouro" está caro / a subir em flecha.
confirmaste que as proporcoes sao essas ?
Segue-se um pequeno artigo a relatar que a procura pelo ouro no Dubai é tal que os vendedores estão a ser obrigados a cobrarem um prémio de 3 dólares sobre o spot da onça troy. Coitados, que tamanha usura! :DCitarGold rush 2013 style has Dubai scrambling
James Doran
[url]http://www.thenational.ae/business/industry-insights/markets/gold-rush-2013-style-has-dubai-scrambling[/url] ([url]http://www.thenational.ae/business/industry-insights/markets/gold-rush-2013-style-has-dubai-scrambling[/url])
There is not enough space on airlines flying in to Dubai to meet the rapidly rising demand for physical gold in the emirate since the price plunged to record lows this week.
The price drop led to a rush of buyers for Dubai gold from the Middle East, South East Asia, the Balkans, Turkey and parts of Europe according to Tarek El Mdaka, the managing director of Kaloti Gold in Dubai.
"I cannot find a place for transporting gold on Emirates, on BA on Swiss Airlines this weekend," Mr El Mdaka said. "I am shipping in one-and-a-half to two tonnes of gold every day and it is going straight out."
Mr El Mdaka added that gold is in such short supply in Dubai that he is able to charge a US$3 premium per ounce. "In the last week or so that has gone up from $1.25, $1.50 to $1.75. But now it is $3. We are really squeezed."
Physical gold from Dubai has been selling strongly since the price of the yellow metal first plunged in April. But this week it has taken another historic tumble, creating a buying opportunity for small- time investors looking for gold bars, coins and bullion.
Yesterday the price edged up a little with the spot price rising 0.5 per cent in early trading to $1,232 an ounce. On Wednesday, however, it fell 4 per cent to $1,221.80, the lowest price in three years, capping a 12 per cent decline in the past eight trading sessions.
Some parts of the Dubai market are not so buoyant as those in which Kaloti operates, however.
Gerhard Schubert, the head of precious metals trading at Emirates NBD said that grades of gold known as 995, which would ordinarily be sold into the Indian market, are currently stuck in Dubai.
The Indian government has implemented import restrictions that have been backed up by the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation in an effort to shore up the tumbling rupee.
"A lot of India's gold comes in from Dubai and all of that is stuck here right now," Mr Schubert said.
Mr El Mdaka, who does not sell into the Indian market, agreed. "The squeeze on physical gold in India would have a big effect on Dubai. Luckily though, there is a lot of demand coming from the rest of the world to soak it up," he said.
Para completar a perspectiva da visão do ouro por parte do Oriente e para não estar a dar a China e Índia sempre como exemplo. Segue-se a recpção do Vietname e do Laos aos descontos:CitarGold Demand Extraordinary In Vietnam – Paying $217 Premium Over Spot
By Mark O’Byrne
On 17 June 2013
[url]http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/gold-demand-extraordinary-vietnam-%E2%80%93-paying-217-premium-over-spot[/url] ([url]http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/gold-demand-extraordinary-vietnam-%E2%80%93-paying-217-premium-over-spot[/url])
[...]
The Vietnamese Central Bank sold another 25,700 taels (1 tael = 37.5 grams or 1.2 troy ounces) at a gold bar auction on Friday in order to try and satiate the massive public demand for gold in Vietnam.
The Central Bank hopes that the sale of gold into the market will reduce the very high premiums paid by gold buyers in Vietnam, the largest buyer of gold in Southeast Asia after Thailand and one of the largest physical buyers of gold per capita in the world.
Vietnamese people hold gold as a store of wealth for protection against war, inflation and currency depreciation. In recent months, the bursting of bubbles in the stock market (see chart) and property market and the continuing devaluation of the dong has led to record demand in Vietnam and a surging premium over the spot price of gold.
Today, the premium was close to 5.5 million dong which is the equivalent of a very high premium of $217 per ounce over spot.
[...]CitarGold rush as Lao prices drop
Asia News Network
Thu, Jun 27, 2013
[url]http://sg.news.yahoo.com/gold-rush-lao-prices-drop-060002085.html[/url] ([url]http://sg.news.yahoo.com/gold-rush-lao-prices-drop-060002085.html[/url])
Vientiane [capital do Laos] (Vientiane Times/ANN) - The recent drop in gold prices on the Lao market has brought buyers out in droves to purchase gold jewellery while it remains cheap.
According to gold shops in Vientiane, sale prices yesterday were at 5,060,000 kip (US$655) per baht-weight for gold jewellery - down about 500,000 kip per baht-weight on previous months.
Buying prices yesterday closed at 4,812,500 kip per baht-weight.
On world markets, gold prices in New York fell by 6.9 per cent or US$87.80 to US$1,286.20 per ounce on June 20.
Meanwhile on the Hong Kong exchange, prices fell to US$1,290.20 per ounce from US$1,336.80 per ounce on June 21.
According to gold traders, large numbers of buyers have visited gold shops in Vientiane to purchase gold jewellery and bars as an investment.
Some shops at the Talatsao Mall were stripped bare of all of their wares as a result of the gold rush.
É este o choque de civilisações entre o Ocidente e o Oriente e o Médio Oriente sobre as duas noções de ouro ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg56176.html#msg56176[/url]) tornado possível graças à minúscula margem que determina o "valor" do ouro no presente, via mercado de futuros, pois nenhuma outra commodity tem o colossal overhang de 60 anos da produção anual "pronto" a entrar no mercado.
a alavancagem esta la e contribui decisivamente para que o mercado do ouro esteja totalmente monetarizado, isto e que exista um enorme volume de dinheiro "organizada, instrumentalizada " que define na pratica para onde o mercado vai ditando a sua logica, uma variante daquilo que por exemplo se passa por exemplo com o mercado de accoes americano onde o a capacidade de injectar dinheiro ilimitadamente por parte do FED faz com que os recursos sob sua gestao nesses mercados possam levar esses mercados para onde se quiser .
Sera que esta acentuada descida do ouro nao sera para fazer lembrar aos mais esquecidos que as moedas por muito mal tratadas que sejam pela inflaccao devem continuar a servir como instrumento de poupanca.
e sendo assim que outras alternativas restarao para servirem como reservas de valor num contexto em que ja nem o ouro serve esse proposito ( esta a perder a guerra com as moedas oficiais )
Na pratica pode nao haver interesse em tornar o Ouro ou outro qualquer substituto, uma alternativa de poupanca a tradicional moeda no entanto no caso das moedas especialmente mal tratadas ( USD e Yen ) e dificil que as pessoas nao procurem forma de fugir ao sistema ( leia-se poupanca em moeda ) mas e dificil ja que todos os mercados estao precados em moeda bem controlados e portanto facilmente susceptiveis de serem tornados pouco apelativos como instrumentos de poupanca mesmo que a logica os faca produtos de poupanca por excelencia.
Na pratica para quem poupa em moedas mal tratadas e como se houvesse alguem a gastar por ti sem que nominalmente tu nunca deixas de ter a referida poupanca, no fundo esta torna-se a prazo uma especie de ilusao de optica eh eh ...
Nações antigas têm o problema de há muito terem ultrapassado o "à terceira, só cai quem é burro". Segue-se o comportamento do governo indiano:
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=10307;image[/url])
E no fim, o governo indiano vem dizer à sua populaça que esta se comporte! :DCitarContain uncontrolled passion for gold: Chidambaram to countrymen
PTI : Mumbai, Sat May 25 2013, 11:47 hrs
[url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/contain-uncontrolled-passion-for-gold--chidambaram-to-countrymen/1120501/0[/url] ([url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/contain-uncontrolled-passion-for-gold--chidambaram-to-countrymen/1120501/0[/url])
Finance Minister P Chidambaram today asked countrymen to contain their "uncontrolled passion" for gold and instead save in financial instruments. "Have faith in our financial sector. Unfortunately, we have difficulty shedding our old habits and put our money in gold," he said while speaking at an event to mark the platinum anniversary celebrations of state-run Dena Bank.
"The uncontrolled passion for gold must be contained," Chidambaram said and reeled out data to show how increasing gold imports are hurting the Current Account Deficit (CAD). People should rather switch to financial products to funnel their savings, the Minister said and added the soon to be launched inflation indexed bonds is a very lucrative option.
He also sought to demolish gold as a hedge against inflation, saying many such investors are finding the going difficult ever since the price of gold plummeted to Rs 26,000 from over Rs 33,000 per ten grams last year.
He said that last year the country bought USD 50 billion worth gold and fortunately, it was able to finance the CAD of USD 90 billion on the back of higher foreign flows and could maintain the foreign exchange reserves level at around USD 290 billion. However, if the flows were to stop completely, it would have a negative impact on the forex reserves, the minister warned.
Explaining the difficulties of financing a high CAD, which hit a record high of 6.7 per cent in the Decemeber quarter of last fiscal, as against the fiscal deficit, another problematic point, he said, the government can borrow from its people for the latter but has to depend on external flows for the latter.
The CAD, which is the excess of foreign exchange spent than earned, is likely to be over 5 per cent last fiscal. Chidambaram reiterated the government's commitment to rein in fiscal deficit at the targeted level of under 5.2 per cent last fiscal and 4.8 per cent this fiscal.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines, Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Takru said it will take at least seven to ten days more before any action is taken by the Reserve Bank against errant banks in the money laundering probe initiated following a series of sting operations by the newsportal Cobrapost.
He said the problem is not so much with the "greed" of banks but lack of "inadequate attention to existing rules and regulations" which would be tightened. On bank recapitalization, Takru said a majority of the Rs 14,000 crore earmarked for recpaitalisation of public sector banks this fiscal will be provided in the fourth quarter while the request of a few of those which need capital early will also be considered.
Conforme era previsível, eis as mulas de ouro a entrarem na ÍndiaCitarIn India, An Old Profession Is Fashionable Again: The Gold Mule
By: Saritha Rai
8/08/2013 @ 6:16AM
[url]http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2013/08/08/in-india-an-old-profession-is-fashionable-again-the-gold-mule/[/url] ([url]http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2013/08/08/in-india-an-old-profession-is-fashionable-again-the-gold-mule/[/url])
It’s back to the 1980s in India. The government’s effort to rein in gold imports to ease a yawning trade deficit has led to the revival of an old-fashioned Indian profession: the gold courier. A mule arriving at the Delhi airport was caught with 9 kgs of gold, another in Chennai with 16 kgs and a third in Bangalore with 3 kgs of gold, all in the past few days.
Last week, the managing director of a Singapore-based jewelry store was intercepted at the Mumbai airport with $400,000 worth of jewelry concealed in her lingerie. The authorities said Vihari Poddar ([url]http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-08-02/mumbai/41005500_1_jewellery-dri-officials-crore[/url]) had tried to smuggle it in on behalf of a local jeweler and had made several similar runs previously. Poddar, who belongs to the illustrious Mumbai industrial family that owns fabric maker Siyaram Silk Mills, is now in judicial custody.
Poddar’s arrest illustrates that the gold mule is back in business. Sneaking in contraband gold for a commission has become a lucrative again, inadvertently boosted by the government’s tough control measures. Indian newspapers are full of reports on the mules’ inventive ways ([url]http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Mumbai/Unique-gold-smuggling-bid-foiled/Article1-1094767.aspx[/url]). One fashioned luggage handles out of the costly metal. Another hid it inside the frame of a wheelchair.
Gold smugglers and couriers enjoyed their heyday in the 1980s and had even been immortalized as villains in popular Bollywood films. But the profession faded away after India’s economic liberalization.
With its trade deficit ballooning, the government hiked import duty on gold twice recently. Import of gold coins and bars is banned. All of this has brought about a resurgence in gold smuggling as the metal is nearly 10% more expensive inside India. Customs and revenue intelligence officials recorded a 365% jump ([url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Indias-seizure-of-smuggled-gold-soars-365-in-first-quarter/articleshow/21400238.cms[/url]) in gold smuggling in the first quarter of the year.
Indians are the world’s biggest buyers and hoarders of gold, and the precious metal is the country’s second largest import after oil. Indians love to flaunt gold at weddings, salt away the metal and take loans against it when in need. The recent volatility in gold prices in international markets has not dampened gold-buying ([url]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/hnis-undeterred-from-gold-investing-despite-price-correction/1143337/[/url]) fervor in India. Officials predicted that the approaching wedding season would lead to a fresh spurt of activity by gold mules.
How many shares of the GLD did they add in Q3 and how many will they add in Q4? (We'll soon know.) As an Authorized Participant, how many shares will they convert into physical for their own, proprietary accounts? (We'll never know.)
Clearly, all of this has been orchestrated to trick Speculators into selling paper gold. This price pressure allows banks like Goldman Sachs to buy gold on the cheap and accumulate it before the eventual breakdown of the current, fractional reserve bullion banking system
O ouro está prontinho para cair mais 120$, vamos revisitar o ultimo minimo nos próximos dias, quem sabe se não será já amanhã
wooww alguém pode confirmar?
Caiu directamente dos 1284 para os 1269 !!
QUESTION: You mention the following comment recently. ”I am very concerned about are precious metals even going to be viable. Will this confiscation of wealth turn to those assets as well?” Could you expand on this please.
ANSWER: This is merely my personal observation. India has virtually stopped the buying of gold there driving it underground. Many are trying to smuggle their gold out to Singapore where there are major storage facilities for Asia. We have seen laws in France banned buying or selling of gold in cash. The French even have limited ATMs. I could get 1,000 SF in Switzerland, 1,000 Euros in Germany, but only 200 Euros in France.
Governments are tracking gold. Not to suppress the price, but to keep an eye on who has what. France just proposed a law making it illegal to close your business there. There are no guarantees any more because there is no rule of law. Governments are desperately trying to retain power. The IMF suggests raising taxes and in Europe seizing 10% of all assets.
While the confiscation of gold by Roosevelt in 1934 did not involve a search house to house, today the NSA has everything. Snowden warned that they need only enter your name and/or email, and everything comes up from banks to phone calls. You do not gather this amount of information and store it because you are looking for 19 guys and a camel. They are doing this for money – yours.
So honestly, all bets are off. Can you buy gold and store it in a safe-deposit box – hell no. That is illegal and can be interpreted as “money laundering” allowing them to just take it under current laws.
They will be seizing all pensions. I cannot state with any degree of confidence that you can buy gold and not have to worry, The difference this time from 1934, they know who has what so they can target individuals rather than search every house.
This is just my observation. I am concerned deeply about the future and this is why I even do this for free. The tree has been cut. Which way it falls depends upon how many realize the risks on the table and make some effort to educate others bringing them out of the fog.
The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any measure ever pays any attention until it is too late, The Problem is clear. Government relies upon the simple fact that you may see with your eyes, but you do not observe either side of a linear path. The distinction is clear. Observe and survive, or pretend nothing is wrong and die in the chaos.
There is nothing new under the sun. It has all been done before.
Parece que está a recuperar... sobe mais de 2%
Parece que está a recuperar... sobe mais de 2%
diria confirmou a inversão :-X
A inversao foi nos finais de junhos quanto a mim, agora fomos testar a forca dessa inversao e a vela de hoje mostra a continuação da inversao ....isso para mim que nao vejo nada disto ;)
A inversao foi nos finais de junhos quanto a mim, agora fomos testar a forca dessa inversao e a vela de hoje mostra a continuação da inversao ....isso para mim que nao vejo nada disto ;)
Estou perfeitamente de acordo, os 1252 vão ficar marcados por muito tempo......foi mesmo um pivot ali.
A inversao foi nos finais de junhos quanto a mim, agora fomos testar a forca dessa inversao e a vela de hoje mostra a continuação da inversao ....isso para mim que nao vejo nada disto ;)
Estou perfeitamente de acordo, os 1252 vão ficar marcados por muito tempo......foi mesmo um pivot ali.
Ainda ha 2 dias caía 120$ em dois dias lol agora ja fez minimos de muito tempo, cada mudança radical lol
A inversao foi nos finais de junhos quanto a mim, agora fomos testar a forca dessa inversao e a vela de hoje mostra a continuação da inversao ....isso para mim que nao vejo nada disto ;)
Estou perfeitamente de acordo, os 1252 vão ficar marcados por muito tempo......foi mesmo um pivot ali.
Ainda ha 2 dias caía 120$ em dois dias lol agora ja fez minimos de muito tempo, cada mudança radical lol
Calma, isso anda por ai muito stress......
Nada de novo, pois o Hermes há muito que vem referindo este assunto... mas gostei da imagem... como outrora...
There is nothing new under the Sun. It has ALL been done BeforeCitarQUESTION: You mention the following comment recently. ”I am very concerned about are precious metals even going to be viable. Will this confiscation of wealth turn to those assets as well?” Could you expand on this please.
ANSWER: This is merely my personal observation. India has virtually stopped the buying of gold there driving it underground. Many are trying to smuggle their gold out to Singapore where there are major storage facilities for Asia. We have seen laws in France banned buying or selling of gold in cash. The French even have limited ATMs. I could get 1,000 SF in Switzerland, 1,000 Euros in Germany, but only 200 Euros in France.
Governments are tracking gold. Not to suppress the price, but to keep an eye on who has what. France just proposed a law making it illegal to close your business there. There are no guarantees any more because there is no rule of law. Governments are desperately trying to retain power. The IMF suggests raising taxes and in Europe seizing 10% of all assets.
While the confiscation of gold by Roosevelt in 1934 did not involve a search house to house, today the NSA has everything. Snowden warned that they need only enter your name and/or email, and everything comes up from banks to phone calls. You do not gather this amount of information and store it because you are looking for 19 guys and a camel. They are doing this for money – yours.
So honestly, all bets are off. Can you buy gold and store it in a safe-deposit box – hell no. That is illegal and can be interpreted as “money laundering” allowing them to just take it under current laws.
They will be seizing all pensions. I cannot state with any degree of confidence that you can buy gold and not have to worry, The difference this time from 1934, they know who has what so they can target individuals rather than search every house.
This is just my observation. I am concerned deeply about the future and this is why I even do this for free. The tree has been cut. Which way it falls depends upon how many realize the risks on the table and make some effort to educate others bringing them out of the fog.
The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any measure ever pays any attention until it is too late, The Problem is clear. Government relies upon the simple fact that you may see with your eyes, but you do not observe either side of a linear path. The distinction is clear. Observe and survive, or pretend nothing is wrong and die in the chaos.
There is nothing new under the sun. It has all been done before.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=330.0;attach=13926;image[/url])
O FT tinha que fazer esse comentário parvo sobre o Bundesbank. Os anglo-americanos não metem bem na cabeça que os outros podem não olhar para eles com a confiança com que olhavam antes. Dado o que sucedeu em 2008, é bem compreensível que o mundo inteiro já não encare os US & UK Ltd como uma marca assim tão segura. De facto, até podem estar à beira do colapso -- embora a acontecer isso o mais certo seja atirarem o mundo abaixo com eles. Os alemães podem estar simplesmente a apostar em que os US & UK vão colapsar E que ainda vai haver um resto do mundo intacto no qual valha a pena viver e para o qual valerá a pena ter ouro em Frankfurt.
Já à muito tempo que a confiança se foi, o problema é que na altura não tínhamos para onde ir [à excepção de voltarmos ao padrão ouro].Uma outra coisa que vejo neste debate libertário/intervenccionista, é que um dos lados visa alterar constantemente as regras para produzir um dado resultado que deseja, ao passo que o outro visa implementar um conjunto de regras e deixar o sistema funcionar independentemente do resultado.
Eu já não "combato" as ideias dos intervencionistas. Eu "apoio" as ideias dos intervencionistas, pois como dizia o Herbert Spencer "The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif[/url])
Desde a 2ª conferência de Génova ([url]http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/genoa[/url]) que os EUA "estão" [e "foram"] protegidos das consequências dos seus actos, o que levou os americanos a criarem a sua própria mitologia...
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=5988;image[/url])
Apesar de no começo dos anos 80 o Paul Volcker ter conseguido salvar o dólar, os europeus criaram a sua solução para o queixume do Banqueiro Central da Holanda em 1971, quando os EUA abandonaram o padrão ouro:Citação de: Jelle ZijlstraWhen we left the pound, we could go to the dollar. But where could we go from the dollar? To the moon?
Naturalmente que os europeus foram construindo lentamente a sua solução para não acordar o gigante, mas em 1978 os passos para a criação do euro já eram visíveis:
1978 April 8: At EC summit, French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing and German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt propose establishment of European Monetary System.
1979 March 13: Establishment of European Monetary System and European Currency Unit. Eight currencies -- the Belgian and Luxembourg francs, French franc, deutsche mark, Danish krone, Dutch guilder, Italian lira and Irish pound -- take part in the exchange-rate mechanism limiting currency fluctuations.
Mas salvar os EUA não foi barato. A Europa ainda teve de viver 20 anos abaixo das suas possibilidades para que os EUA pudessem continuar a viver acima das suas possibilidades e para que continuassem a dormir:
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=5989;image[/url])
Mal que os europeus deixaram de necessitar de ir para a Lua, deixaram de pagar a corveia ao tio Sam em 2001. Quem entretanto salvou o tio Sam foi a China, que pagou durante 10 anos a corveia para continuar a sua industrialização. Mas agora temos duas dinâmicas em acção. Por um lado, os americanos não têm bling para comprar produtos chineses, por outro lado, o medo dos chineses perderem os dólares que acumularam ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?topic=725.0[/url]) está a criar a profecia que se auto-realiza...
Agora o resto do mundo não precisa de ir para a Lua, pelo que os EUA estão numa situação de checkmate, pois não só não têm o apoio do resto do mundo via compra de dívida do tio Sam, como é inverosímil a segunda vinda do Paul Volcker. Relembremos a história:
Foram necessários taxas de juro reais da ordem dos 10% [e nominais de 21%] para tornar a enfiar de novo o génio dentro da lâmpada. Como os políticos resolveram salvar os bancos [nenhuma surpresa aqui, dada a escolha entre salvar a moeda ou salvar o sistema, a escolha é sempre salvar o sistema] estão com eles apertados. Vejamos o caso dos EUA . Fora a Segurança Social, o governo arrecada 1 trilião de dólares de impostos. Suponhamos generosamente que o governo os consegue aumentar para 1.5 triliões. Mas o governo tem 16 triliões de dívidas e a aumentar à taxa de 100 biliões por mês. Ora uma subida nominal de 10% dos juros consumiria todas as receitas dos impostos, ainda antes do governo gastar um único cêntimo em qq outra coisa...
A cereja em cima do bolo é que o resto do mundo já não precisa de ir a lado nenhum, nomeadamente para a Lua, se bem que a Europa esteja bem mais adiantada... É apenas uma questão de continuar a deixar a força da gravidade fazer o seu trabalho e deixar ao cuidado do tio Ben a alteração da natureza do dólar de crédito para base [note-se que em tempos de hiperinflação quase todo o dinheiro na economia é base].
Uma vez explicado de onde viemos, vejamos para onde vamos ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,530.msg35840.html#msg35840[/url]), relembrando as palavras de outro Banqueiro Central holandez no discurso de abertura do euro:Citação de: Wim DuisenbergThe euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.
Source: [url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ecb.eu/press/key/date/2002/html/sp020509.en.html[/url])
Não só a pouco e pouco os governos vão compreendendo o que significa o "but also its link to the nation-state", como ainda a pouco e pouco vão rendendo de livre e expontânea vontade parte do seu poder em políticas bancárias com os aplausos e ovações dos bancos, para que lhes tirem a corda da garganta dos últimos, reforçando ainda mais os poderes do BCE. :D
Uma vez rendido o poder monetário e regulação bancária, a prazo os governantes revelar-se-ão tão viris quanto eunucos, pois vão ter menos áreas de actuação para arbitrariedades e menos capacidade de extrair dinheiro pela calada aos seus campónios para pagar sistemas burocráticos pesados e caros ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,530.msg8655.html#msg8655[/url]).
Agora é diferente, pois o mundo tem o euro. Repare-se que o BCE é o único Banco Central que tem o controlo absoluto sobre as suas reservas. Mais ainda, não só tem o controlo absoluto sobre o seu ouro e o dos Bancos Centrais do Eurogrupo, como agora o controlo dos bancos comerciais [e desta forma dos governos, pois os governos deixam de ter a forma de forçar os bancos comerciais a financiá-los via captura regulatória (i.e. forçando-os a terem uma larga percentagem dos seus balanços investidos na dívida do seu suberano)], controlo que será efectivo em 2014.
Agora o mundo não precisa de ir para a Lua, pois tem a moeda de confiança [o euro agora está completo] da 1ª maior economia em GDP.
Quer me parecer que quem escreveu a notícia não consegue ver a floresta por causa da árvore.
A razão mais provável é que os árabes não dão grande valor ao dólar. Já nos anos 70 tens dois ministros das finanças, um do Kuwait e outro da Arábia Saudita a dizerem que “oil in the ground is better than money in the bank” ([url]http://www.google.com/search?hl=xx-bork&num=100&q=%22oil+in+the+ground+is+better+than+money+in+the+bank%22[/url]). Desde os tempos da primeira conferência de Génova [cf. The Age of Inflation ([url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/96554552/The-Age-of-Inflation-Jacques-Rueff#[/url]) do Jacques Rueff] ocorrida em Outubro de 1445, onde se estabeleceu o padrão ouro no sentido moderno do termo, que durou cerca de 500 anos, os árabes não querem outra coisa como forma final de pagamento...
Uma bandeirinha vermelha pequenina no Gold (nos 1344.30), com stop apertadinho não vá ser que os fulanos queiram ir mais para cima :-X
suores frios :P
Dubai’s DGCX to List Spot Gold Contract as Regional Demand Jumps
By Nicholas Larkin
October 30, 2013
[url]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-30/dubai-s-dgcx-to-list-spot-gold-contract-as-regional-demand-jumps[/url] ([url]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-10-30/dubai-s-dgcx-to-list-spot-gold-contract-as-regional-demand-jumps[/url])
Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange plans to list a spot gold contract in the second quarter of next year as demand for the metal in the region increases.
The bourse, which offers gold and silver futures, is talking to local merchants and industry organizations and aims to get regulatory approval for the product by early 2014, said Chief Executive Officer Gary Anderson. Demand for bullion in Dubai expanded eightfold in the last six to 10 years, he said.
Dubai accounts for about 25 percent of global physical gold trade and the United Arab Emirates will grow as a precious-metals trading hub partly because of its location near the largest consuming nations, according to the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, which owns a majority stake in the DGCX. Gold, set for the first annual decline in 13 years, advanced 14 percent since reaching a 34-month low in June as lower prices spurred demand for jewelry, bars and coins in Asia.
“Dubai is a very big center and we have a very good gold eco system here from refineries to jewelers and pretty much everything in between,” Anderson said today by phone from Dubai. “The one thing that’s really missing is a Dubai spot market.”
Bullion for immediate delivery slumped 19 percent to $1,355.64 an ounce in London this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow stimulus as the economy strengthens.
Gold Trade
Gold trade in Dubai totaled $45 billion in the first half of this year, compared with $70 billion in all of 2012, Gautam Sashittal, chief operating officer of government-owned DMCC, said in a Sept. 30 interview in Rome. The DMCC is a free zone with more than 7,000 companies, some in the precious metals industry, Sashittal said.
India and China are the biggest gold users, according to the London-based World Gold Council. Consumer purchases of gold will advance to as much as 1,000 metric tons in India and China this year, the council has said. That would exceed China’s record of 778.6 tons set in 2011 and approach India’s all-time high of 1,006.5 tons in 2010.
“There is increased demand and we sit geographically in a great location,” Anderson said. “This past 18 months there’s certainly been a trend where the trading of gold is moving from west to east.”
Investors sold 750.2 tons through gold-backed exchange-traded products this year, erasing $60.1 billion from the value of the funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings reached 1,881.4 tons on Oct. 25, the lowest since April 2010.
DGCX Contract
The size of the spot gold contract will probably be 1 kilogram (32 ounces) and the DGCX is aiming to list a plastics contract in the first quarter, Anderson said. While there are “no concrete plans” yet for other precious metals products, a silver spot contract and platinum and palladium contracts may be possible in the future, Anderson said.
“Demand for silver in the area is relatively big and there’s no reason why it could not work, but again we would want to speak to the industry and see if there’s a real requirement for that to happen,” Anderson said. “Our real focus is on spot gold.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
Se eliminar o QE deveria cair. Mas uma parte da queda presente já antecipa isso (outra parte vem de que foi uma bolha).
A Alemanha há dias aumentou o IVA nas moedas dos coleccionadores...
Ao menos estes ainda sabem que o que reluz.... é ouro.
Mas de facto o papel a dizer isto e aquilo...
For those of you Turdites out there who like to buy silver from German dealers, please read the following excerpt from an email that I just received from auragentum.de, one of my favorite pm dealers (they did not include a link, so I'm still looking for one).
"Der Deutsche Bundestag hat in seiner 243. Sitzung am 6. Juni 2013 die beiliegende Beschlussempfehlung des Vermittlungsausschusses – Drucksache 17/13722 – zu dem Gesetz zur Umsetzung der Amtshilferichtlinie sowie zur Änderung steuerlicher Vorschriften (Amtshilferichtlinie-Umsetzungsgesetz-AmtshilfeRLUmsG) angenommen." verkündete der Bundesrat am 6. Juni. Damit ist es nun Gesetz, dass Silberanlagemünzen ab dem 01. Januar 2014 nicht mehr mit dem ermäßigten Mehrwertsteuersatz von 7%, sondern mit dem vollen Satz von (derzeit) 19% belegt werden.
Die Steuererhöhung um 12 Punkte würde bewirken, dass z.B. der Wiener Philharmoniker und Maple Leaf nicht wie heute bereits ab 19,63 € erhältlich wären, sondern (bei gleicher Kursbasis) 21,83 kosten würden. Also je Unze um ca. 2,20 € mehr! Schlagen Sie also jetzt noch zu, solange noch der ermäßigte Steuersatz gilt, denn Silbermünzen werden ab 01. Januar automatisch 11,2% teurer! Vielleicht sogar noch mehr, denn wer weiß, ob nach der Bundestagswahl der normale Mehrwertsteuersatz noch bei 19% bleibt.
Aber es gibt auch gute Nachrichten: Zum einen bleibt Anlagegold weiterhin mehrwertsteuerfrei und zum anderen können sich auf dem aktuellen Kursniveau noch besonders günstig mit unseren heutigen Angeboten eindecken:
Germany has traditionally been a pretty good place to buy pm's. Any profits on pm's (gold and silver), that were physically held for one year or more are and will continue to be tax free. There is no value added tax on gold, this too, will not change. Silver has been traditionally subject to a 7% value added tax for collector's coins (American Eagle, Maple's and Phili's included). There has been a value added tax on silver bars amounting to 19%, using the argument that bars are used for industrial purposes and not collecting. Effective January 1, 2014, silver coins will be taxed at purchase with a value added tax of 19% just like the bars. At today's spot, that would amount to 2.20 Euro's per ounce more. This means that if the spot price remains unchanged, stackers will still have to pay 11.2% more per ounce. Just wanted to let you all know.
For those of us effected, we might want to pick up a little bit more silver than planned this year. Take care guys!
China's gold coup d'etatWhat it means for global gold owners
by Michael J. Kosares
http://www.usagold.com/publications/novreview2013.html (http://www.usagold.com/publications/novreview2013.html)
Editor's Note: This issue of Review & Outlook is based on a series of posts I made at the USAGOLD blog (http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/) over the course of the past month. China has imported an unprecedented amount of gold bullion in 2013. So much so that, if it were to maintain the current pace, it would import nearly the equivalent of global production for the year. When the news first filtered out of China on the amounts of gold being mobilized through its Shanghai Gold Exchange, the numbers seemed too large to be believed. The obvious question became "What is the source of this extraordinary amount of gold bullion?" It was only in October when Reuters reported that much of that gold had been shipped from London-based exchange traded funds to Switzerland for refining into smaller Asia-friendly bars and then on to Hong Kong and Shanghai that the full picture came into focus. It was only then that the extraordinary numbers gained credibility.
Below I detail how the China gold trade mechanism works, the reasons for it, and why China's interest in gold is likely to remain of paramount importance to the global market for many years to come. I have updated the original statistics from recently posted reports at the Koos Jansen website (http://koosjansen.blogspot.nl/) based in the Netherlands -- a research source specializing in the China gold trade. To stay abreast of the China situation as well as other developments in the gold market on a daily basis, I invite you to visit our blog page linked above.(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=14242;image)
Part One - The London-Zurich-Hong Kong-Shanghai gold conduit
According to a recent Reuters report, the United Kingdom's gold exports to Switzerland jumped from 85 tonnes to 1,016 tonnes in the first eight months of 2013 — a twelve times increase. Some bullion market watchers attribute the huge increase to withdrawals or sales from exchange traded funds (ETFs) — an explanation that covers only half the story…….if that. When one learns where this gold ended up and why it went there, the true importance of this unusually large deployment begins to take shape.
Switzerland, according to the Koos Jansen website, has exported over 600 tonnes of gold to Hong Kong through August, 2013. Hong Kong, in turn, has exported over 700 tonnes of gold to the Chinese mainland over the same period through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Through August, 2013 Koos Jansen puts the total Chinese gold mobilization through the SGE at a stunning 1672 tonnes. Now, with this report of ramped-up exports from the United Kingdom, another piece of the puzzle falls into place and we begin to get a fairly clear picture what these gold mobilizations entail. Switzerland and Hong Kong are acting as a conduit of western gold on its way to China — and probably, at least in part, to Chinese central bank reserves.
To what extent this gold mobilization is the result of some yet-to-be-identified external pressure on London's bullion banks, or simply business as usual, remains to be determined, but gold movements of this size usually do not occur in a vacuum. Hedge funds have been in the gold ETF liquidation mode since April at the behest, it seems, of certain bullion banks that have issued generalized ETF sell recommendations to their clientele (which includes the funds). The ETF selling has been blamed repeatedly for the rapid drop in the price. If all of this has been a ploy to drive down the price on paper and channel substantial amounts of physical gold to China, who is the winner in this game and who is the loser? And why is it being done?
The gold market is incurably opaque (no matter how diligent or persistent the arguments to the contrary that it isn't or that it should not be), and that is probably why so many are intrigued by it. Yet, at the same time, those who innocently own gold for asset-preservation purposes can rest assured that they will never become collateral damage in these affairs as long as they do not allow themselves to lose patience or forget the reasons why they purchased gold in the first place.
Commencing to have doubts about the currency
Gold is never sought by those who think all is well with the world. It is sought by those who believe that things could go wrong, or indeed, that things have already gone very wrong. The true believer might be someone of incredible private wealth, as was the case with Bernard Baruch in the 1930s, or it might be a great nation-state like Germany or China today. When the sitting Secretary of the Treasury asked Bernard Baruch why he was buying so much gold, the reply came quickly that he "was commencing to have doubts about the currency." China and Germany -- the former by buying gold on the open market and the latter through its gold repatriation program -- are acting on doubts of their own. Up until today, we were unaware of the degree to which those doubts had manifested themselves in the hidden corridors of the world gold market. . . .Now we know. In the first eight months of 2013, China produced 270 tonnes of gold from its mines, and theoretically almost four times that amount through its London – Zurich – Hong Kong -- Shanghai gold conduit. In future years, China's gold import operations likely will be considered a major financial coup d'etat.
The Telegraph's Andrew Critchlow explains that China's consumption of raw materials makes it "only a matter of time before the renminbi replaces the dollar as the primary currency for trading commodities and resources such as crude oil and iron ore." He comes to an ominous conclusion: "The debt ceiling farce in Washington and China's growing reluctance to continue underwriting the US economy by buying up its bonds and adding to America's near $17 trillion (£10.5 trillion) debt mountain suggests that this tectonic shift in the global trade system could be just around the corner."
While financial markets' attention was riveted on Washington's budget theatrics, the United Kingdom and China quietly entered into a game-changing currency swap arrangement that will allow the two countries to trade for goods and services directly in their own currencies, thus cutting out the dollar middle man. "All of a sudden," says Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, "there's potentially no dollar risk." The two countries quickly followed the swap arrangement with easier access to Chinese financial markets for British investors, including we might assume London financial firms, and the same for Chinese banks in the United Kingdom. By circumventing the dollar, the UK and China are sending a strong message about the greenback's future as the world's sole reserve currency -- all toward a "de-Americanized world" as China's state -owned Xinhua news agency put it.
Zhu Baoliang, an economist in China's State Information Center, a research unit of the National Development and Reform Commission and powerful planning agency, told Financial Times, "We need to continue to diversify. Even without this latest debt debate, it would still be necessary to diversify." With this endeavor, it seems China and Europe have crossed a Rubicon of sorts and shifted the playing field in financial markets. It's one thing for Iran or Libya to challenge the pre-eminence of the dollar, but another thing entirely when China and Europe do it.
Part 2 - Screen-traded fiat gold could get very violent wake-up callCitar"This could turn into a very violent wake-up call for [screen-traded gold]. People talk about 'fiat currencies', but we also have 'fiat gold.' Volatility is too cheap right now." — Gold refiner quoted by John Dizard in his Financial Times column this weekend
In Reuters' initial report on the London-Zurich-Hong Kong-Shanghai gold pipeline, Macquarie gold analyst Matthew Turner speculated that the 1016 metric tonne United Kingdom export was shipped to Switzerland for refining into "smaller bars more attractive to Asian consumers or to be vaulted there instead." Though vaulting cannot be ruled out, the recasting explanation makes considerably more sense given the times and the extraordinary amount of gold being imported by China – over 1500 tonnes so far this year as mentioned above. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which China would be interested in vaulting gold in the West – particularly at a time when the West is experiencing difficult financial and economic circumstances.
On the other hand, we know that four of the world's top gold refineries are located in Switzerland — Valcambi, Pamp, Argor-Heraeus and Metalor. Roughly 70% of the world's annual gold production is refined in Switzerland and it is considered the center of the world's gold refinery business. Its bars are trusted on the world's gold exchanges by the top banks, bullion dealers, jewelry manufacturers, and nation-states alike. If Turner is right about recasting the bars into Asia-friendly units -- and I think he is -- Switzerland would be the place to do it, particularly in light of the volume reportedly being re-refined. In my view, China intends for this gold to be transported to and remain in the East; otherwise it would not have gone to the trouble of having it recast into Asa-friendly bars.
Bar recasting fits Asian exchange trading units
To gain a deeper understanding of what China might be up to, some background is essential. Let's start with the trading units at the two major Chinese exchanges involved in the gold trade – the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) – because that goes a long toward explaining why the 1016 tonne export made an initial stop in Switzerland before moving on to China.
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=14243;image)
The tael is the standard unit of weight on the Hong Kong exchange. It equals 1.20337 troy ounces or 37.4290 grams, fineness in the past has been 99% but this standard has been upgraded to 99.99% to conform to international trading standards. According to gold expert Timothy Green's The Gold Companion (1991), the standard trading sizes on the Hong Kong exchange are five and ten taels. The basic contract is 100 taels, or 120.377 troy ounces, as opposed to the standard 100 troy ounce contract on U.S. futures exchanges. The Hong Kong Gold Exchange is an outlet for much of Asia and the tael trading units, once again according to The Gold Companion, are used in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Viet Nam.
Dragon's hoard includes Chinese people, Peoples Bank of China
The SGE is the only gold exchange in mainland China and its contract-trading unit is the kilo bar (32.15 troy ounces), once again a significant deviation from the western exchange standard of 100 troy ounces. SGE widely publicizes itself as a "delivery market" -- thus the smaller and familiar kilo bar size as its chief trading unit makes a great deal of sense. Most of the metal moving from London to Asia through Switzerland will more than likely end up in the hands of consumers in the form of jewelry and small bars (see stats below). What few people realize is that all of this activity is fully sanctioned by the Chinese government and the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). In fact, the Shanghai Gold Exchange is owned by the PBOC. As a result, any unallocated gold imported and stored at the exchange for future delivery is, indirectly at least, gold inventory at China's central bank.
Drawing again from the Koos Jansen analysis, the China Gold Market Report – compiled by the key players in China's gold market, including analysts for the SGE – lists the following distribution of physical metal through the Shanghai exchange in 2011:Citar456.66 tonnes – Jewelry manufacturing
53.22 tonnes – Industrial raw materials
21.55 tonnes – Gold coins
213.85 tonnes – Investment gold bars
13.52 tonnes – Other, unnamed industrial purposes
284.88 tonnes – Net investment…[D]emand arising from the transfer process of gold as an investment tool
Total = 1043.68 tonnes
To offer a measuring stick that might give that total number additional meaning, it equals roughly 40% of annual mine production, one-eighth the U.S. gold reserve, and nearly one-third Germany's reserve. (Keep in mind, too, we are talking 2011 numbers not 2013 numbers after the latest massive imports outlined above.)
It is no secret that the Chinese people have a traditional, transcending attachment to gold. That same attitude, it should be kept in mind, permeates almost the whole of Asia and, as more and more people partake in the fruits of Asia's rise economically, the demand for gold is likely to grow with it. As such, the demand we have seen thus far could be just the tip of the iceberg, particularly when you take into consideration China's ambition to build a significant central bank gold reserve. China is likely to take advantage of any drop in the price to load up as it did betweem April and August, 2013.
Fiat currency, fiat gold
In a recent Financial Times opinion piece, John Dizard explored the burgeoning tension building between the paper and physical gold markets. He pointed to the very situation in the physical gold market we have just covered in depth. He talks about the shortage of kilo bars globally, the recasting of 400 troy ounce ETF bars for shipment to China, and the upside-down forward rate on physical gold -- a strong indicator of short physical supply. Dizard poses the question, "Could the gold flow back from those kilo bars to recasting as good delivery 400 oz bars?" In other words, does the London-Zurich-Hong Kong-Shanghai pipeline run in both directions? An unidentified gold refiner answers: "Much of that has been converted to jewelry. It would be a lengthy process. Those are pretty sticky hands…This could turn into a very violent wake-up call for [screen-traded gold]. People talk about 'fiat currencies', but we also have 'fiat gold.' Volatility is too cheap right now."
HSBC's role in the China gold trade
One more point of interest before I put this piece of the China analysis to rest: HSBC, the multinational bank headquartered in London, is the chief storage facility for the largest gold ETFs. As mentioned in my previous article, much of the gold transferred to Switzerland by HSBC came out of the ETFs. In addition, HSBC is an important trading member in the daily London Gold Market Fixings. Founded by Sir Thomas Sutherland in the British colony of Hong Kong in 1865, HSBC stands for the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation.
Part 3 - Insights on the way China thinks about gold
As Chief Market Strategist for Anglo Far East, the precious metals logistics and custodial services company, Alex Stanczyk travels frequently to China and has extensive knowledge and experience about its attitude towards gold. In the following snippet from a longer interview at the Koos Jansen website, he discusses China's gold strategy and what it might mean for the market in the months and years to come. The interview took place in early September 2013, and it is reprinted here with permission.CitarI might have a small advantage over some other gold commentators. I have been invited to China on several occasions to speak. One of those occasions was to speak to the Chinese government - it was a think tank on monetary policy. I know China is ramping up its gold reserves massively during this period of time. I think they're likely importing way more than the figures you and I see show.
Our firm has got personal experience dealing with the guys that transport the gold, the security companies. One of our partners had lunch in the recent past with the head of the largest global operations company in security transport. He said there is a lot of gold that they're moving into China that's not going through exchanges. If the gold is for the government they don't have to declare where it's going. They don't have to declare where it's going in, or where it's heading. If you look at the way the Chinese do things, why would they tell?
We talked to the head of the largest refinery in Switzerland and he told us directly that all that metal that's coming out of London (904 tons YTD) is being refined into kilo bars and sent to China, as well as metal that's coming in from other areas in the world, that's all going to China. It's way more than is being reported or moved through the exchanges. All the kilo bars go to the Chinese people but the PBOC is likely only buying good delivery.
The Chinese government is encouraging the people to buy gold for three reasons:CitarNumber one, it soaks up capital that would otherwise flow into bubble markets like real estate and equities.
Number two, gold provides a strong base in case of inflation or other economic chaos. This provides stability and lowers the chances for civil unrest if there are economic problems.
Number three, if the people would sell it back, it gives the PBOC [Peoples Bank of China, its central bank] a way to increase its reserves by stealth. Remember the PBOC is very secretive about their gold reserves. It buys a huge amount of gold off books using proxies, so it can keep it reserve numbers hidden. This is very Chinese if you understand the Chinese mindset. The next time they will report on their reserves it will be 3000 tons, probably higher.
(http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=14244;image)
There is this game that the Chinese play, it's called Weiqi (pronounced Way Chee), and it's similar to chess. In Weiqi you have to surround your enemy slowly and lay a trap, and then close the trap all at once. That's the way the Chinese think, they don't really disclose what their plan is, they just move tiny pieces around the board in a seemingly incoherent way, but when all the pieces are lined up that's when the trap is sprung. All of the government party leaders play this game, and the CEO's and chairman of China's largest businesses are all part of the party.
I have spoken to a highly placed member of CSRC [China Securities Regulatory Commission] and he told me directly that the government's purpose over the next five year plan is to curb real estate and equities investment and get more people investing in gold.
If you see the massive demand that's going over to Asia it's really staggering. Year to date 1800 tons was imported into India and China, out of an annual mine supply of 2700 tons. It's a massive imbalance, this never happened before.
I think we have passed the [gold market] bottom. The fundamentals for the reasons it started going up in the first place never changed; the sovereign debt and the amount of money supply increase. Gold is only measuring the devaluation of paper currencies. This trend is been going on for many years and I don't see it changing because the governments of the world don't have solutions to the problems that they've got.
[End quote]
Chase Isn't the Only Bank in Trouble
By Matt Taibbi
November 5, 12:55 PM ET
[url]http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/chase-isnt-the-only-bank-in-trouble-20131105#ixzz2johJ1eUZ[/url] ([url]http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/chase-isnt-the-only-bank-in-trouble-20131105#ixzz2johJ1eUZ[/url])
I've been away for weeks now on a non-financial assignment (we have something unusual coming out in Rolling Stone in a few weeks) so I've fallen behind on some crazy developments on Wall Street. There are multiple scandals blowing up right now, including a whole set of ominous legal cases that could result in punishments so extreme that they might significantly alter the long-term future of the financial services sector.
As one friend of mine put it, "Whatever those morons put aside for settlements, they'd better double it."
Firstly, there's a huge mess involving possible manipulation of the world currency markets ([url]http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/513606/20131014/fx-market-manipulation-doj-cftc-fca-investigation.htm[/url]). This scandal is already drawing comparisons to the last biggest-financial-scandal-in-history (the Financial Times wondered ([url]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6eb17100-4184-11e3-b064-00144feabdc0,Authorised=true.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F6eb17100-4184-11e3-b064-00144feabdc0.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fus-mg6.mail.yahoo.com%2Fneo%2Flaunch%3F.rand%3D24qpkmn7gd91j#axzz2jQcahmiV[/url]) about a "repeat Libor scandal"), the manipulation of interest rates via the gaming of the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor. The foreign exchange or FX market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume of nearly $5 trillion.
Regulators on multiple continents are investigating the possibility that at least four (and probably many more) banks may have been involved in widespread, Libor-style manipulation of currencies for years on end. One of the allegations is that traders have been gambling heavily before and after the release of the WM/Reuters rates, which like Libor are benchmark rates calculated privately by a small subset of financial companies that are perfectly positioned to take advantage of their own foreknowledge of pricing information.
A month ago, Bloomberg reported that it had observed a pattern of spikes in trading in certain pairs of currencies at the same time, at 4 p.m. London time on the last trading day of the month, when WM/Reuters rates are released. From the article ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/currency-spikes-at-4-p-m-in-london-provide-rigging-clues.html[/url]):CitarIn the space of 20 minutes on the last Friday in June, the value of the U.S. dollar jumped 0.57 percent against its Canadian counterpart, the biggest move in a month. Within an hour, two-thirds of that gain had melted away.
The same pattern – a sudden surge minutes before 4 p.m. in London on the last trading day of the month, followed by a quick reversal – occurred 31 percent of the time across 14 currency pairs over two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. For the most frequently traded pairs, such as euro-dollar, it happened about half the time, the data show.
The recurring spikes take place at the same time financial benchmarks known as the WM/Reuters (TRI) rates are set based on those trades…
The Forex story broke at a time when the industry was already coping with price-fixing messes involving oil ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/eu-oil-manipulation-probe-shines-light-on-platts-pricing-window.html[/url]) (the European commission is investigating manipulation of yet another Libor-like price-setting process here) and manipulation cases involving benchmark rates ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/25/us-freeport-cobalt-pricing-idUSBRE99O12120131025[/url]) for precious metals and interest rate swaps. As Quartz put it ([url]http://qz.com/132027/is-this-the-next-libor-scandal-european-regulators-are-probing-foreign-exchange-market-manipulation/[/url]) after the FX story broke:CitarFor those keeping score: That means the world's key price benchmarks for interest rates, energy and currencies may now all be compromised.
Perhaps most importantly, however, there's a major drama brewing over legal case in London tied to the Libor scandal.
Guardian Care Homes, a British "residential home care operator," is suing the British bank Barclays for over $100 million for allegedly selling the company interest rate swaps based on Libor, which numerous companies have now admitted to manipulating, in a series of high-profile settlements ([url]http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324616604578302321485831886[/url]). The theory of the case is that if Libor was not a real number, and was being manipulated for years as numerous companies have admitted, then the Libor-based swaps banks sold to companies like Guardian Care are inherently unenforceable.
A ruling against the banks in this case, which goes to trial in April of next year in England, could have serious international ramifications. Suddenly, cities like Philadelphia ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/29/us-usa-libor-philadelphia-lawsuit-idUSBRE96S0UZ20130729[/url]) and Houston, or financial companies like Charles Schwab ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-01/schwab-sues-bofa-and-other-banks-over-libor-manipulation.html[/url]), or a gazillion other buyers of Libor-based financial products might be able to walk away from their Libor-based contracts. Basically, every customer who's ever been sold a rotten swap product by a major financial company might now be able to get up from the table, extend two middle fingers squarely in the direction of Wall Street, and simply walk away from the deals.
Nobody is mincing words about what that might mean globally. From a Reuters article on the Guardian Care case:Citar"To unwind all Libor-linked derivative contracts would be financial Armageddon," said Abhishek Sachdev, managing director of Vedanta Hedging, which advises companies on interest rate hedging products.
Concern over all of this grew even hotter last week with the latest Libor settlement, in which yet another major bank, the Dutch powerhouse Rabobank, got caught monkeying with the London rate.
Rabobank paid over a billion in fines to American, British, Dutch and Japanese authorities and saw its professorial CEO, Piet Moerland, resign as a result of the probe. The investigation revealed the same disgusting stuff all of the other Libor probes had revealed – traders and various other mid-level bank sociopaths laughing and joking about rigging rates and screwing customers all over the world. From the WSJ:CitarIn a July 2006 electronic chat, an unidentified Rabobank trader was informed about the bank's plans to set Libor "obscenely high" that day, according to an exchange cited by the Justice Department. The trader responded, "oh dear . . . my poor customers . . . . hehehe!!"
Here at home, virtually simultaneous to the Rabobank settlement, Fannie Mae filed a suit ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/fannie-mae-sues-banks-for-800-million-over-libor-rigging.html[/url]) against nine banks – including Barclays Plc (BARC), UBS AG (UBSN), Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, Credit Suisse Group AG, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan – for manipulating Libor, claiming that the mortgage-financing behemoth lost over $800 million due to manipulation of the benchmark rate by the banks.
And virtually simultaneous to that, JP Morgan Chase disclosed that it is currently the target of no fewer than eight federal investigations, for activities ranging from possible bribery of foreign officials in Asia to allegations of improper mortgage-bond sales to . . . the Libor mess. "The scope and breadth of risky practices at JPMorgan are mind-boggling," Mark Williams ([url]http://smgapps.bu.edu/mgmt_new/profiles/williamsmark.html[/url]), a former Federal Reserve bank examiner, told ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/jpmorgan-discloses-eight-doj-probes-from-asia-to-madoff.html[/url]) Bloomberg.
The point of all of this is that any thought that the potential Chase settlement might begin a period of regulatory healing for it and other Wall Street banks appears to be wildly mistaken. If anything, the scope of potential liability for all the major banks, particularly in these market-rigging furors, appears to be growing in all directions.
A half-year ago, it looked like the chief villains in the Libor mess at least were going to get away with writing relatively small checks. Back in March, a major private class-action suit filed by a gaggle of plaintiffs against the banks for Libor manipulation was tossed by a federal judge here in the southern District of New York on the seemingly preposterous grounds that a bunch of banks getting together to monkey with the value of world interest rates in this biggest-in-history financial collusion case was somehow now an antitrust issue.
The banks in that case humorously implied ([url]http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425?page=3[/url]) that the victims might have done better to sue for fraud instead of manipulation ("The plaintiffs, I believe, are confusing a claim of being perhaps deceived," one bank lawyer put it, "with a claim for harm to competition"), and the judge seemed to agree.
Moreover, when the plaintiffs' lawyers tried to make a point about the seemingly key fact that a series of governments had already concluded settlements with the banks for manipulating Libor, the judge – the Hon. Naomi Rice Buchwald – mocked the plaintiffs' lawyers for trying to ride to civil victory on a wave of government settlements:CitarWait a second. Your job here, as plaintiffs' counsel, looking for whopping legal fees, is not to piggyback on the government. Indeed, the reason that there are statutes that provide plaintiffs' counsel with attorney's fees is a recognition that the government has limited resources.
The banks must have thought they'd hit the lottery, with this potentially deadly Libor suit suddenly stopped dead in its tracks by a grumpy federal judge with an apparent distaste for plaintiff lawyers who collect "whopping" legal fees. So the victims tried to take a different tack, appealing to a federal panel in an attempt to allow them to file their suits against the banks on a state-by-state level.
But then, in a seemingly fatal blow to the private claims, the U.S. Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation ruled in favor of the banks ([url]http://www.law360.com/articles/477929/jpml-sends-charles-schwab-suit-to-libor-mdl-in-ny[/url]), sending the case right back into the courtroom of the same judge who'd dumped on the plaintiffs' lawyers and their "whopping fees."
That was just a month ago, at the beginning of October, and back then it seemed like the banks might somehow escape the Libor mess with their necks intact.
Now, a month later, yet another bank has been forced to cough up a billion dollars for Libor manipulation, Fannie Mae has filed a major suit on the same grounds, and the Guardian Care Homes case is not only alive but looking like a threat to cancel billions of dollars' worth of Libor-related contracts. Not only that, many of those same banks are being sucked into what potentially is an even uglier scandal involving currency manipulation.
One gets the feeling that governments in all the major Western democracies would like to sweep these manipulation scandals under the rug. The only problem is that the scale of the misdeeds in these various markets is so enormous that even the most half-assed attempt at regulation will cause a million-car pileup.
There's simply no way to do a damage calculation that won't wipe out the entire finance sector when you're talking about pervasive, ongoing manipulation of $5-trillion-a-day markets. That's the problem – there's no way to do a slap on the wrist in these cases. If they're guilty, they're done.
Gold body mulls working with exchange on rate benchmark
By Clara Denina
[url]http://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/gold-body-mulls-working-with-exchange-on-rate-benchmark-113110500966_1.html[/url] ([url]http://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/gold-body-mulls-working-with-exchange-on-rate-benchmark-113110500966_1.html[/url])
LONDON (Reuters) - The London Bullion Market Association is considering whether to partner with an exchange to produce its gold-lending reference rate to ensure it can meet tighter rules coming on financial benchmarks, its new head said.
The Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO), the equivalent of LIBOR for the gold market, is used as a benchmark for dealers, central banks and others to swap gold for U.S. dollars with miners who may need gold to meet contracts or investors for short-selling and other purposes.
LBMA Chairman David Gornall told Reuters last month that the 150-member trade body could charge its members more or even stop providing GOFO if stiffer new regulation makes it too expensive to run.
"We are still in deliberation. It's one of the options, but ... we have been approached by a few exchanges, and it's definitely something that the board will be considering in terms of which direction we take now that we have come to a crossroads on the benchmark," incoming Chief Executive Ruth Crowell told Reuters in her first interview since being appointed last week.
Crowell is currently deputy CEO of the LBMA, the trade body for the wholesale over the counter (OTC) market for gold and silver bullion, and will succeed Stuart Murray as the new CEO at the end of December.
Regulators are pushing for new rules on commodity benchmarks after the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) was entangled in a manipulation scandal last year.
The LBMA has found itself at a turning point as it needs to decide whether to remain a trade association or become an organised trading platform, given that regulation is likely to discourage opaque bilateral trades, which currently dominate the wholesale gold market.
REGULATION BY 2014
Madrid-based IOSCO (International Organisation of Securities Commissions) has been looking at how to oversee market benchmarks since 2012, and GOFO is likely to come under scrutiny soon.
"We will get a little more clarity next year, but basically for the next three years there is going to be a lot of back and forth", before the rules are settled, Crowell said.
British watchdog Financial Conduct Authority said earlier this year it could start to regulate physical commodity benchmarks from 2014.
The LBMA currenlty sets GOFO each day by polling its eight major bank dealers on the rates at which they are prepared to lend gold. It also publishes the gold forward curve, used for valuing end-of-day positions.
The association already has links with the London Metal Exchange (LME), which together with LCH.Clearnet launched the Synapse clearing system for OTC gold forward trades in December 2010 using the LBMA forward rate curve.
The LME declined to comment on whether it has offered to manage GOFO for the LBMA.
The Synapse service has recorded only modest activity, however. Only 930,000 gold ounces were matched and cleared year-to-date, compared with 208.5 million ounces transferred in London bilateral trade.
Activity could pick up if regulation demands it, however, Crowell said.
"The current cleared product is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Everyone is waiting to know whether forwards will have to be cleared in the EU on a mandatory basis," she said.
"Until that is known, it is difficult for the members to decide whether to change the existing way of trading."
MORE DATA
Regulation is the most immediate challenge for the future of the LBMA, Crowell said. One of her aims is to make more trade data available to the market.
"One of the things I have always been pushing for is for us to have ... turnover data that can be seen by the market, not only for regulators but also for investors wanting to know the size and the liquidity of the market," she said.
Further engagement in Asia, as the gold market moves eastwards, is another focus, she added.
"We wouldn't rule out opening an office in Asia, but more important in the future is making sure that we maintain and enhance the links that we already have, particularly in terms of getting more Asian members."
As well as GOFO, the trade body also sets standards for ethical gold mining and for refining and assaying gold and silver bars. (Reporting by Clara Denina; Editing by Jan Harvey and Jane Baird)
acerca da manipulacao:
1-os bancos fazem imenso dinheiro com prop trading
2-qs ninguem consegue ser um bom trader, nao interessa se vens duma ivy league school ou nao. portanto os trading rooms estao cheios de maus traders sem qualidades acima da media da populacao mas com um grau academico prestigiante da treta
como podem entao os bancos fazer muito dinheiro com o prop?
1-roubando os clientes
2-roubando a propria empresa e deslocando prejuizos para livros nao-prop onde nao ha bonus
3-manipulando o mercado (eu vi a coisa ser feita)
4-o grau academico prestigiante serve de legitimidade aos lucros e afasta suspeitas
nao ha milagres
acerca da manipulacao:
1-os bancos fazem imenso dinheiro com prop trading
2-qs ninguem consegue ser um bom trader, nao interessa se vens duma ivy league school ou nao. portanto os trading rooms estao cheios de maus traders sem qualidades acima da media da populacao mas com um grau academico prestigiante da treta
como podem entao os bancos fazer muito dinheiro com o prop?
1-roubando os clientes
2-roubando a propria empresa e deslocando prejuizos para livros nao-prop onde nao ha bonus
3-manipulando o mercado (eu vi a coisa ser feita)
4-o grau academico prestigiante serve de legitimidade aos lucros e afasta suspeitas
nao ha milagres
se ao fim de o tradares uns anos saíres a positivo, é bom, apanhaste-lhe as manhas. a maioria dos traders pequenitos se feitas as contas ficar a zero já é um milagre, é um activo bastante dificil na minha opinião
se ao fim de o tradares uns anos saíres a positivo, é bom, apanhaste-lhe as manhas. a maioria dos traders pequenitos se feitas as contas ficar a zero já é um milagre, é um activo bastante dificil na minha opinião
Foi a galinha dos ovos de ouro que passou por lá. Agora a sério, parece haver sérios indícios do aumento anornal de importações de ouro nos países vizinhos.
Not exactly the brightest way to smuggle gold…
November 16, 2013
Bangkok, Thailand
Thailand is known for a lot of things– quintessential white sandy beaches, hard partying nightlife, quiet Buddhist reverence…
But what a lot of people don’t realize is that Bangkok is probably one of the most important cities in the world when it comes to illegal trafficking.
Human trafficking. Narcotrafficking. Money laundering. Weapons. Forged documents. Etc.
Bangkok is just as vital to these industries as New York or London to the global financial sector.
And now, thanks to India’s sagging economy, they can add one more to this list: gold smuggling.
Recently, India has been in a state of economic turmoil. Beset on all sides by spiraling inflation, economic stagnation, and a rapidly depreciating currency.
In response the Indian government imposed capital controls in a feeble attempt to curb gold imports and reduce its widening current account deficit.
This constitutes theft, plain and simple. By eliminating options to hold anything other than rapidly depreciating paper, Indian politicians essentially stole the purchasing power of people’s savings
India’s government banned gold coin imports outright. And tight restrictions were placed on the importation of other bullion products, replete with excessive taxation and duties to pay.
The private sector hasn’t exactly taken this lying down. History shows that whenever governments create prohibitions, smugglers and bootleggers will always step in to fill the void.
And because of its traditional gold ties, regional commerce, and generous transportation options, Thailand has now become a major transit point for international gold smuggling destined for India.
The World Gold Council recently released its quarterly data on global gold trends, and the numbers are very clear: India’s gold demand cratered, dropping 32% because of the restrictions.
In Thailand, however, gold demand is up 125% from the 3rd quarter of 2012.
I’ve noticed this on the ground; there’s been a surge of gold shops and new inventory in the marketplace, particularly the small ‘biscuit’ bars that are easier to smuggle.
Much of this is bound for India.
Indian customs officials say that the amount of gold seized has soared over 300% this year.
They claim to have found people hiding gold just about everywhere you could imagine– from airplane lavatories to betwixt their butt cheeks. Not exactly the smartest way to smuggle gold… Just imagine being the buyer of those bars!
Of course, most of the gold is making its way into the country. The borders are too porous and there’s just too many people going through.
Based on the markup that gold sells for in India and the cheap cost of air travel in this part of the world, a smuggler can net nearly $10,000 on a single trip bringing 5kg of gold into India.
That’s a fairly solid payoff for a day’s work, though there are obviously risks involved.
But as much as I admire the swashbuckling, unbridled capitalist spirit of these smugglers sticking it to politicians, there is definitely an easier way.
This whole episode really underscores the importance of having at least a portion of your gold (and paper savings) safely held overseas where your home government can’t control it.
If you have gold overseas and some funds in a foreign bank account, then your savings will be protected from the disastrous consequences of capital controls.
Digital currencies like Bitcoin may also be an alternative to paper money; they’re growing in popularity in places like Argentina where people continue to be beaten down by extractive government policies and capital controls.
[url]http://www.sovereignman.com/offshore/not-exactly-the-brightest-way-to-smuggle-gold-13193/[/url] ([url]http://www.sovereignman.com/offshore/not-exactly-the-brightest-way-to-smuggle-gold-13193/[/url])
They claim to have found people hiding gold just about everywhere you could imagine– from airplane lavatories to betwixt their butt cheeks. Not exactly the smartest way to smuggle gold… Just imagine being the buyer of those bars!
Vespasian imposed a Urine Tax (Latin: vectigal urinae) on the distribution of urine from public urinals in Rome's Cloaca Maxima (great sewer) system. (The Roman lower classes urinated into pots which were emptied into cesspools.) The urine collected from public urinals was sold as an ingredient for several chemical processes. It was used in tanning, and also by launderers as a source of ammonia to clean and whiten woollen togas. The buyers of the urine paid the tax.Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pecunia_non_olet (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pecunia_non_olet)
The Roman historian Suetonius reports that when Vespasian's son Titus complained about the disgusting nature of the tax, his father held up a gold coin and asked whether he felt offended by its smell (sciscitans num odore offenderetur). When Titus said "No," he replied, "Yet it comes from urine" („Atqui ex lotio est“).
The phrase Pecunia non olet is still used today to say that the value of money is not tainted by its origins. Vespasian's name still attaches to public urinals in France (vespasiennes), Italy (vespasiani), and Romania (vespasiene).
The amazing disappearance of GOLD from the American psyche
November 22, 2013
Dallas, Texas
In George Orwell’s seminal work 1984, there’s a really great scene early in the book between Winston (the main character) and Syme, a low-level functionary at the Ministry of Truth.
Syme is working on the 11th Edition of the Newspeak Dictionary, and he explains to Winston how the Ministry of Truth is actually removing words from the English vocabulary.
In Newspeak, words like -freedom- have been struck from the dictionary altogether, to the point that the mere concept of liberty would be incommunicable in the future.
I thought about this scene recently as I was testing out Google’s new Ngram Viewer tool.
If you haven’t seen it yet, Google has digitized over a million books that were printed as far back as 1500, and they’ve made the contents searchable within their own database.
The Ngram Viewer allows you to search for particular keywords. And you can see over time how prevalent the search terms were for particular years.
Out of curiosity, I searched for the term “gold” in English language books starting in 1776.
As one would expect back in the 18th and 19th centuries when gold was actually considered money, the instances of the word ‘gold’ favored prevalently in English language books at the time.
The trend continued into the early part of the 20th century.
But then something interesting happened in the mid-1930s. The use of the word ‘gold’ in English language books reached its peak… and began a steep, multi-decade decline.
1 The amazing disappearance of GOLD from the American psyche
Further investigation shows that the peak actually occurred in 1933. And as any student of gold in modern history knows, 1933 was the same year that the President of the United States (FDR) criminalized the private ownership of gold.
It remained this way for four decades. And by the time Gerald Ford repealed the prohibition on gold ownership, the concept of gold being money had been permanently struck from the American psyche, just as the Orwellian Newspeak dictionary had done.
By the mid-1970s (and through today), people have become readily accepting of the idea that money was nothing more than pieces of paper conjured at will by central bankers.
The good news is that, according to Google’s data, there seems to be slight uptick in the number of instances of the word ‘gold’ in English language books over the last 10-years or so.
No doubt, this probably has a lot to do with gold’s seemingly interminable rise relative to paper currency.
One can hope that the trend will hold… that more people will wake up to the reality that the central-bank controlled fiat currency system is a total fraud.
[url]http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-amazing-disappearance-of-gold-from-the-american-psyche-13209/[/url] ([url]http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-amazing-disappearance-of-gold-from-the-american-psyche-13209/[/url])
entao esse ouro? comprei GDXJ e nada, dou-lhe um ano ou entao fecho a posicao :D
Em que faze estamos?
Está na fase do novo paradigma... mas se os mercados corrigirem, o ouro deverá subir...Em que faze estamos?
Basta responder à fase em que está o dinheiro do tio Sam, que é a pregunta pertinente
amanha posso ter um sinal de compra no GDX, so tem de cair mais um dia
amanha posso ter um sinal de compra no GDX, so tem de cair mais um dia
zel confirma-se o teu sinal? é que ontem houve uma recuperação antes do fecho e pode ter estragado o cenário.
amanha posso ter um sinal de compra no GDX, so tem de cair mais um dia
zel confirma-se o teu sinal? é que ontem houve uma recuperação antes do fecho e pode ter estragado o cenário.
nao, afinal so amanha e so se cair
nao vi a tua pergunta antes, da prox se tiveres urgencia manda um pm
Investem via forex? Ou noutra via?
É um ETF? Fazem hedg cambial?Investem via forex? Ou noutra via?
GDX ou GDXJ numa das bolsas americanas
É um ETF? Fazem hedg cambial?Investem via forex? Ou noutra via?
GDX ou GDXJ numa das bolsas americanas
Mas qual é a correlação do ouro com as empresas que as exploram?É um ETF? Fazem hedg cambial?Investem via forex? Ou noutra via?
GDX ou GDXJ numa das bolsas americanas
sim eh, mas de empresas de exploraca mineira
para o ouro pode ser o GLD (outro ETF), mas eu nao toco nisso
hedge cambial como? eu faco tudo em dolares, nao sei se responde a pergunta
as empresas tem ouro em minas etc que explorar e nao estao hedged a 100%, eh uma forma mais "alavancada" de estar no ouro (+ beta)
nao toco porque primeiro quero mais volatilidade e porque tenho um sistema testado que funciona para as empresas e nao para o metal
sim, estou exposto ao dolar mas podia fazer um hedge se quisesse com futuros de eurodolar
as empresas tem ouro em minas etc que explorar e nao estao hedged a 100%, eh uma forma mais "alavancada" de estar no ouro (+ beta)
nao toco porque primeiro quero mais volatilidade e porque tenho um sistema testado que funciona para as empresas e nao para o metal
sim, estou exposto ao dolar mas podia fazer um hedge se quisesse com futuros de eurodolar
Pista: o ouro já está "abaixo" do preço de produçãoSe ao preço actual está abaixo do preço de produção, o que acontecia quando o preço rondava os $200?
Não percebi esta frase:CitarPista: o ouro já está "abaixo" do preço de produçãoSe ao preço actual está abaixo do preço de produção, o que acontecia quando o preço rondava os $200?
Bem, estará abaixo do custo de produção de alguns produtores. Não certamente de todos.
Será que percebi bem?
Quando o ouro está a baixo preço e com os custos de produção existentes, têm que aumentar a produtividade e por isso vão aos veios mais lucrativos.
Quando o ouro está a alto preço e com os custos de produção existentes, podem diminuir a produtividade e aproveitar os veios menos lucrativos.
É assim?
In India, smugglers move gold like narcotics
[url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/india-gold-smuggling-idINDEE9B20HY20131203[/url] ([url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/india-gold-smuggling-idINDEE9B20HY20131203[/url])
(Reuters) - Indian gold smugglers are adopting the methods of drug couriers to sidestep a government crackdown on imports of the precious metal, stashing gold in imported vehicles and even using mules who swallow nuggets to try to get them past airport security.
Stung by rules imposed this year to cut a high trade deficit and a record duty on imports, dealers and individual customers are fanning out across Asia to buy gold and sneak it back into the country.
Sri Lanka, Thailand and Singapore are the latest hotspots as authorities crack down on travellers from Dubai, the traditional source of smuggled gold.
In a sign of the times, whistleblowers who help bust illegal gold shipments can get a bigger reward in India than those who help catch cocaine and heroin smugglers.
"Gold and narcotics operate as two different syndicates but gold smuggling has become more profitable and fashionable," said Kiran Kumar Karlapu, an official at Mumbai's Air Intelligence Unit.
"There has been a several-fold increase in gold smuggling this year after restrictions from the government, which has left narcotics behind."
From travellers laden head-to-toe in jewellery to passengers who conceal carbon-wrapped gold pieces in their bodies - in the mistaken belief that metal detectors will not be set off - Indians are smuggling in more bullion than ever, government officials say, driven by the country's insatiable demand for the metal.
That suggests official data showing a sharp fall in gold buying, which has helped narrow India's current account gap, may significantly underestimate the real level of gold flows.
The World Gold Council estimates that 150 to 200 tonnes of smuggled gold will enter India in 2013, on top of the 900 tonnes of official demand.
Between April to September alone, India's customs officials seized nearly double the amount of smuggled gold it nabbed in all of 2012.
"Though the quantum of seizures has increased, in our opinion it reflects only 1 to 2 percent of total smuggling," said a revenue intelligence officer in Mumbai who declined to be named. "Dubai is still the number one place from where gold gets in and Singapore is slowly emerging. Sri Lanka has become a staging point."
Grappling with a high trade deficit and weak currency, India imposed measures this year to crimp demand for gold, the second most expensive item on its import bill after oil. It imposed a 10-percent duty on bullion and a 15-percent tariff on jewellery. Imports plunged to 24 tonnes in October from a record 162 tonnes in May.
SUPPLY CRUNCH
Gold is an integral part of Indian culture, offered at weddings and festivals. India was the world's biggest gold consumer until last year but will be overtaken by China in 2013.
India has now stepped up cooperation with nearby countries to stem the smuggling.
Last week, Sri Lanka limited the amount of jewellery its residents can take out of the country and it will try to monitor whether they bring it back. Pakistan banned all gold imports in August for a month as it believed much was being smuggled on into India.
Indian gold premiums have soared to $130 an ounce over London prices due to the supply crunch, compared with about $2 an ounce in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand.
Banks and other official trading agencies in Singapore and Thailand that had supplied gold to their Indian counterparts have stopped due to India's new rules.
But smaller dealers and retailers say they have been selling more to Indian customers than ever before, in jewellery and other forms.
Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd, said he has sold about 10 kg (22 lbs) of gold to a single Indian customer and gets multiple similarly big orders on some days.
"We have Indian dealers buying from us directly on a regular basis," said a second Singapore dealer. "They say they have their own means of taking it in without getting caught."
GOLDEN STAPLES, SLEEPLESS NIGHTS
As customs officials at airports and borders get more vigilant, smugglers are innovating.
In June, a passenger flying from Dubai was caught at New Delhi airport with about 755 grams (1.7 lbs) of solid gold staples painted grey. Officials stopped the man because the cardboard boxes he was carrying were stapled far more than seemed necessary.
In several other cases, travellers have been caught with gold in their underwear. Flight attendants and police officers have been arrested for aiding the smugglers.
"We are trying to plug all the loopholes. We have strengthened our anti-smuggling staff and installed door metal detectors," said S.A.S. Navaz, deputy commissioner of customs in the south Indian city of Kochi. "We are spending sleepless nights.
"Most of the time, it is done with the support of (airport) staff. It is very difficult to keep an eye on everyone."
In late November, 56 Sri Lankans were held in Kochi after they were found with nearly 12 kg of gold. Some of them had travelled to Kochi six times last month.
Sri Lanka, which raised taxes on gold imports from June to November due to rising smuggling to India, last week said female residents could only fly out with 120 grams of jewellery, the equivalent of about 28 wedding bands. Men are allowed a third of that.
Customs officials may allow exceptions but will monitor if passengers bring back the same amount of gold they left with.
"In the last three to four months, we have seen several cases of gold smuggling from Sri Lanka to India through cities such as Mumbai, Kochi and Chennai," Leslie Gamini, a spokesman for Sri Lankan customs, said from Colombo.
"It is a very difficult task. But we have to implement it. We are in the process of developing guidelines on how to implement this."
Though the number of arrests made in India has increased, those that get caught are usually only the "carriers" who transport gold for as little as 10,000 rupees. The people behind the smuggling are rarely identified.
In an effort to change that, Mumbai customs offers a reward of up to 50,000 rupees per kg of bullion seized for informers in gold smuggling cases. Cocaine and heroin informers get only up to 40,000 rupees and 20,000 rupees respectively.
(Editing by Amran Abocar and Alex Richardson)
entao esse ouro? comprei GDXJ e nada, dou-lhe um ano ou entao fecho a posicao :DParece que vai começar a subida... será?
entao esse ouro? comprei GDXJ e nada, dou-lhe um ano ou entao fecho a posicao :DParece que vai começar a subida... será?
Só hoje foram 4,34%
Se tiver fechar a minha posição para tomar lucros na AGQ, depois entro nesta.
Gold takes ‘legal’ route to Kerala
T Ramavarman,TNN
Dec 22, 2013, 12.36 AM IST
[url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/Gold-takes-legal-route-to-Kerala/articleshow/27742112.cms[/url] ([url]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/Gold-takes-legal-route-to-Kerala/articleshow/27742112.cms[/url])
KOCHI: Revenue intelligence agencies manning various airports are helplessly watching huge quantities of gold flowing into the state through the legal route with jewellers using NRIs returning home as 'couriers'. All 80 passengers on a flight from Dubai that landed in Kozhikode last week were found carrying 1kg of gold, the legally permitted limit, the gold on that flight alone totalled 80kg, worth Rs 24cr.
Jewellers are reportedly contacting NRIs through travel agents to persuade them to carry 1 kg of gold paying 10% of its value as duty in foreign currency. The jewellers offer to remit the duty as well quid pro quo like flight tickets, customs officials revealed.
Nearly 200 kg of gold was "imported'' after remitting the due duties through Kozhikode during last one week. Cochin International Airport witnessed the import of over 140 kg of gold in the first 20 days of December, said a customs official.
Just a quick chart I would like to share with you all. A friend emailed me Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index readings, so I overlaid Crude Oil prices against it. You should be able to notice that it can be used as a contrarian indicator for commodity prices.
For example, as commodity prices sell off, majority of analyst (dumb money) become bearish and do not expect a rise in inflation. However, ironically that is precisely when commodity prices bottom out and inflation pressures return. These periods were seen in during 1998, late 2001, late 2003, late 2006, early 2009 and currently throughout 2013 – all of which coincided with commodity price bottoms and buying opportunities. I hardly doubt this time will be different.
Não achas melhor investir em xaueur ou xauusd?
A mim, a Prata deu sinal de compra no diário na 5ª mas logo na sexta deu possível reverse.
A GDXJ (que vou tentar apanhar um swing). Deu sinal de comprar na 4ª e continua. Aliás, aqui tenho um segundo sinal de compra.
Mas no semanal não. Mas no semanal tenho um indicador que a confirmar-se dá um potencial forte de subida.
Para semana devo fazer uma compra, pequena de GDXJ se continuar assim.
Pekenobuda,
compraste pequenas ou grandes mineiras?
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I have read much of the hateful vindictive slander that has been hurled at you by the gold community. It is really shocking how much some of these people hate you. The whole thing about Kristy was disturbing. I met people at your conference who sent her money claiming she needed it to scan reports. Then the story how they saved you when it was Congress who issued a letter to investigate your treatment. They even tried to take credit for that. I guess these are the very people who have to puke their guts out before the metals will ever turn. Just as you said, going into the low everyone will turn bearish. I listened and sold. Thank you so much for helping me to become a trader.Incrivel o nº de acetos deste senhor.
Thank you again
JH
REPLY: Yes the stories these people have crafted are off the wall. I like how they pretend to put out comments from the kid who grew up across the street from me I happened to mention once. The problem, he died when we were kids so he is not the author of these comments they fabricate – Kenneth Siegel. Yes I was shocked at people soliciting money in my name. One friend sent $5,000 thinking he was helping me when they were exploiting readers. As for not being grateful and how the Goldbugs got Congress for me, it was the other way around. I put Nathan in contact with Glen Downs, they did not introduce Glen Downs to me. Everything they can twist upside down they have done.
No matter what they have fabricated, gold still went down. The idea that somehow desperately trying to paint me as some ungrateful jerk would stop people from listening to me and save gold just didn’t work. They argue banks manipulate gold, yet are they not trying to do the same thing by slandering me? Yes, these comments are even criminal. You cannot fabricate this nonsense with immunity. Just amazing how far some people will go to try to save gold.
The South China Morning Post has reported a sharp drop by 42% in gold purchases coming from China. This is typical as we head into the lows. The idea that they will just keep buying as prices fall is wishful thinking. China should relax its demand as prices decline.Armstrong
Fourth, continued efforts will be made to promote the sound development of financial markets, to support the development of direct financing, and to broaden the direct financing channels available to small- and micro-sized enterprises. The bond issuance pricing mechanism and regulation of bond issuances will be improved. Innovation will be encouraged and awareness of risk prevention in the financial market will be strengthened. The focus is to allow the market mechanism to function and strengthen market infrastructure building. Supervision and regulation will be strengthened to promote the sound development of financial markets. The diversification of financial markets, financial products, investors, and intermediaries will be promoted to increase the share of direct financing. The diversity of participants on the gold market will be promoted, and product innovation will be encouraged while risk monitoring, early warnings, and risk prevention will be strengthened to promote the stable development of the market.Fonte: www.pbc.gov.cn/image_public/UserFiles/english/upload/File/2013Q3MPR(EN)%5B1%5D-afternancy.pdf (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/image_public/UserFiles/english/upload/File/2013Q3MPR(EN)%5B1%5D-afternancy.pdf).
O FMI está a reverlar-se uma autêntica caverna de Aladino. :D
Segue-se a proposta do FMI para um mundo mais seguro e repleto de novas oportunidades, nomeadamente a de "segurador". (http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/Smileys/yarex2/evil.gif)CitarDid An Obscure IMF Document Start a Global Bail-In Revolution?
By Daniel Amerman CFA
11/21/2013
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/daniel-amerman/did-an-obscure-imf-document-start-a-global-bail-in-revolution (http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/daniel-amerman/did-an-obscure-imf-document-start-a-global-bail-in-revolution)
When revolutions start, it's not uncommon for almost nobody to notice. It may take years or even decades before historians can look back, point a finger and say "that's where it really began."
An obscure International Monetary Fund "Staff Discussion Note" may have already started a "Bail-In" financial revolution that could transform the global investment world.
In this quite remarkable document, the staff discusses a world where risks to the global financial system have not gone away — but are worse than ever. As candidly discussed, the "SIFI" (systemically important financial institution) problem has not been improving, but instead has been getting worse than ever — and there doesn't appear to be any solution under existing contract law and bankruptcy law.
More risk than ever is concentrated in fewer financial institutions, while there is no way under existing law to unwind a failure of one of these institutions without risking triggering global financial chaos. Moreover, there is a deadly feedback loop between these "too-big-to-fail" institutions and sovereign governments. That is, as the IMF staff discusses, the bailing out of these massive institutions can bankrupt sovereign governments, and sovereign governments going bankrupt can wipe out the "too-big-to-fail" institutions.
So the IMF staff has come up with an audacious plan for how the globe can emerge from this seemingly impossible situation. The key word is "insurance".
The proposal is to take selected classes of investments, and retroactively decide that these assets aren't really assets at all. Indeed, the owners of these assets have — without realizing they've done it — agreed to provide insurance for the global financial system. So if a major crisis arises, the global financial system merely goes to these unknowing "insurance" providers and helps itself to their assets effectively, and the crisis is dealt with. It's a miracle solution!
Now there is the issue that some investors might actually object to this taking of their investment assets for the greater good of society. Which is exactly why the IMF staff recommends that this be done by way of statutory law, in a manner that overrides contract law — and is involuntary, with no investor permission needed. It would also be retroactive as needed, thus applying to people who already own these classes of investments.
After the bail-ins of the Cypriot banks and the Polish retirement system, the development of bail-in procedures is spreading rapidly around the world, including the EU, Canada and the United States. What is fascinating and troubling - though perhaps not surprising - is how global politicians are in practice completely changing the "bail-in" concept, setting aside the IMF-proposed changes that could have forced genuine banking reforms and potentially increased global financial stability, and instead are creating a broader threat to investors.
Moody's Investors Service has already lowered the credit ratings of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon in anticipation of possible future bail-ins. Moody's accompanying statement explained: "Rather than relying on public funds to bail out one of these institutions, we expect that bank holding company creditors will be bailed-in and thereby shoulder much of the burden to help recapitalize a failing bank."
A World at Risk
The IMF Staff Discussion Note is titled, "From Bail-Out To Bail-In: Mandatory Debt Restructuring Of Systemic Financial Institutions". Originally released in 2012, it could be viewed as a source document for the global movement to bail-ins. The note is available on the International Monetary Fund website, and a link for downloading the PDF is below:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2012/sdn1203.pdf (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2012/sdn1203.pdf)
(The original discussion is well worth reading, and this analysis refers to particular document page numbers within it. Please note, as is often the case with PDF documents, that the page number in the actual document (which is what you will see if you print it out) is one off from the electronic PDF page number.)
One of the main questions explored in the document is just why the IMF believes that the world needs these major changes in the laws and how investments are treated.
While positive headlines abound in the media about rising stock markets and improving conditions, as it turns out, the International Monetary Fund staff sees a quite different picture. What they see are serious ongoing risks to the global financial order that are being caused by the major financial institutions around the world — which they refer to as SIFIs, otherwise known as "too-big-to-fail" institutions.
As covered on document page 4 (PDF page 5), there are three different ways in which the failure of even a single SIFI can imperil the entire global financial order.
The first major risk is "direct counterparty risk", with the SIFIs having an extraordinarily complex web of hundreds of trillions of dollars of interlocking commitments and contracts between themselves. The failure of a single SIFI could trigger a chain reaction of losses that would spread like dominoes, knocking down one SIFI after another — as well as other banks and investors around the world.
The second major risk is one of "liquidity". Since SIFIs rely heavily on borrowing, if the sources of their funds flee in the event of trouble, this would leave the SIFIs potentially insolvent unless they could quickly sell assets to cash out departing lenders, which would rapidly drive down prices, and with everyone selling assets together this could create a global "fire sale" on investments that's enough to crash the world's financial system in a matter of days.
The third major risk is one of "contagion", where the failure — or even looming failure — of one major institution introduces a psychology of panic into the marketplaces, which by itself is more enough to bring down the global financial order. After all, perception can and does create reality when it comes to financial markets.
Now all of these risks received a great deal of attention after the global banking system nearly went under in 2008, and in theory they were supposed to have been taken care of by restricting the ability of the SIFIs to take risks, and also by reducing the percentage of the world's financial assets that are held by the SIFIs.
However, as covered at the bottom of page 4 (PDF page 5) — this hasn't been working out in practice.
To the contrary, there has been an even greater consolidation of assets into these "too-big-to-fail" banks and financial institutions than there ever was before the crisis started. As a result, this has created "unsustainable public finances", where the extraordinary cost of conventional bail-outs potentially threatens the solvency of the nations themselves. And such a sovereign insolvency could in turn trigger insolvency for the SIFIs. So again we have a toxic feedback loop between the SIFIs and the nations that must bail them out in the attempt to avert global financial collapse.
The IMF also identifies the related problem of a "shadow banking system" which also creates systemic risk, but is not subject to the same regulations as the formal banking system.
As discussed on page 8 of the document (PDF page 9), there are two other major problems with the global financial system that feed into these three major risks, making them far more dangerous.
One of them is that because these major financial institutions are generally exposed to a huge amount of risk in their derivatives holdings — which on a global basis dwarf the equity that they have — these derivatives in an insolvency situation could lead to a "disorderly unwinding" which could disrupt the financial markets. In other words, it could lead to a global financial meltdown — although the IMF staff uses a little more carefully chosen vocabulary.
The other core problem, as analyzed by the IMF staff, is that general corporate insolvency proceedings do not provide sufficient tools to manage the risks to financial stability when it comes to a SIFI failing. Which means that under existing law, there simply isn't the capability to manage this — except by bringing in massive amounts of public funds from already financially stressed sovereign states, which then risk triggering their own insolvencies, which then also risk triggering the insolvencies of other SIFIs in this toxic feedback loop.
Plainly put, the existing laws can't handle the problems that have been created by this intertwined world of "too-big-to-fail" institutions that continue to take massive financial risks for private gain, seemingly beyond the control of the sovereign nations, even as the sovereign nations dealing with their own financial problems increasingly lack the credible financial resources to massively bail-out these institutions without risking their own solvency. So the bail-outs are unaffordable, but yet a failure to bail-out would lead to swift global financial chaos.
The Insurance Loophole
For an outside but rational investor, the solution might seem to be obvious. We didn't have this problem before the SIFIs — so get rid of these "too-big-to-fail" financial institutions. Break them up. Restrict their ability to take risks if the public is necessary as a backstop for them to take risks. Unlimited and unregulated risks are fine, but only those which their private investors / owners can actually afford to take. So that in the event of bad decisions leading to failure, the private investors may be wiped out, but no public backstop is needed.
And in doing so, the need for the public to bail-out these institutions would end, as would the toxic feedback loop between the SIFIs and the effectively bankrupt sovereign nations.
Now the IMF staff is aware of this obvious solution, but is very careful not to touch upon it, other than perhaps to implicitly say it just hasn't been working.
That is because the core of the problem is political. The SIFIs are simply too politically powerful for them to be broken up by the politicians of the sovereign developed nations. It's simply not politically practical for the governments to change the behavior of these institutions — even though they place the stability of the entire global financial system at risk on a daily basis.
So when considered from a practical political perspective, another solution needs to be found.
The alternative solution that the IMF document proposes is to use "bail-ins" instead of "bail-outs". My recent article titled, "Bail-ins & Taking Private Wealth", explains in further detail the concept of bail-ins, and how they're currently being used in the real world.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/daniel-amerman/bail-ins-taking-private-wealth (http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/daniel-amerman/bail-ins-taking-private-wealth)
One way of looking at a bail-in is that it is the opposite of a bail-out. In the case of a bail-out, when there's an issue with a bank (or government, or government retirement system) not having enough assets available to meet the claims against it, funds are brought in from the general public, supposedly to serve the needs of the general public.
With a bail-in, there is no bankruptcy, but assets are taken from selected investor classes, thereby reducing the claims against the corporation. Solvency is therefore achieved and the needs of the general public are met, but without the general public having to actually pay for it.
Now while the IMF document uses the term "bail-ins", they also offer a quite different way of explaining the process, as shown on page 7 (PDF page 8). As stated, "the bail-in capital could be seen as a form of insurance (provided by creditors) against bank insolvency".
Now if we think through this approach — this way of finding completely new solutions for a system that otherwise lacks solutions, the implications are global, and they are extraordinary.
The way it works is that in the event of a potential financial meltdown, the government — or international organization — identifies particular investment types and classes of investors. These investors hold assets, and in some cases these assets are the liabilities (such as bonds) of the institution that is in trouble.
The government effectively says to these investors, "you may think that you own an asset, but what you've really done is you have underwritten an insurance policy. And if this institution in which you've invested your assets should run into financial difficulty, you have in fact pledged your assets to prevent the insolvency of the corporation, for the greater good of the global financial order".
Now the owner of the investment asset had no idea when they made the investment that they were doing this. They've never received an insurance premium for taking this risk. But nonetheless, a category of investment assets are retroactively declared to be insurance, and they can effectively absorb all the losses and keep the SIFI — or the government, or the public retirement system — solvent for the benefit of all.
Using Statutory Law to Override Contract Law
The second half of the article is linked below. Subjects covered include:
Four approaches that the IMF staff recommends that governments use for minimizing the legal issues associated with taking investor assets.
IMF-recommended investor protections, and their plan for using investment markets to incentivize the big banks and other SIFIs to voluntarily reduce risks.
The rapid development of bail-in procedures around the world - and how in practice, politicians are dropping the investor protection recommendations, broadening the threat to investors, and removing the proposed market-driven threats to the politically powerful "Too-Big-To-Fail" institutions.
How bail-ins and other interventions are intended to hold the global financial system together through changing the basic rules governing the law, money and investments, even as they facilitate a redistribution of wealth which is not understood by the general public.
Segue-se a 2.ª parte.CitarDid An Obscure IMF Document Start a Global Bail-In Revolution?
By Daniel Amerman CFA
http://danielamerman.com/articles/2013/IMFbailinB.html (http://danielamerman.com/articles/2013/IMFbailinB.html)
Using Statutory Law To Override Contract Law
Now because the investors – whose assets are essentially funding the insurance that preserves the major financial institutions – didn't actually realize that what they were doing was pledging their assets to guarantee the payment on insurance claims, there's a case to be made that this could be a bit sticky from a contract law perspective. Given that this didn't appear anywhere in the prospectus.
Which brings us back to our previous discussion from page 8. One of the reasons for bail-ins in the first place is that using the current laws as written for traditional bankruptcy proceedings simply doesn't work to try to unwind one of these "too-big-to-fail" banks. Per the IMF staff it can't be done, as there's simply too much global risk and damage.
So there are three key paragraphs on page 12 (PDF page 13) that address this. The first one is that "there are compelling arguments in favor of an approach that minimizes the role of the courts". Keep those judges out of it in other words, as they might not do what they're supposed to do. Indeed, the IMF explicitly recommends not allowing the judiciary the ability to reverse this resolution, although it could be allowed to award damages in some instances.
Instead, it is more appropriate for the "decisions to be taken by the banking authorities". In other words, the very same regulators who failed to properly regulate the banks and allowed the disastrous situation to be created in the first place are the best possible experts resolve the crisis.
There's also the problem of getting creditor approval that might be required in a bankruptcy. The IMF document addresses this as well, stating that "the need for quick and decisive action in the interest of financial stability pleads against incorporating a procedure for creditor approval". Getting creditor approval can be a very messy part when going through a bankruptcy proceeding – therefore it's simply eliminated with the bail-in structure.
Perhaps most important of all is the bottom paragraph on page 12, which states that "bail-ins should be applied to existing debt as well as debt issued after the bail-in power is enacted".
In other words, this is retroactive when it comes to investment decisions. In theory, the IMF proposals are based on nations enacting bail-in legislation in advance, so investors are warned, and the yields on securities that are subject to bail-in should rise proportionately as the market evaluates the insurance premium that it should be receiving for providing this protection to other investors.
However, in the real world, as the IMF acknowledges, when you need the assets – you need the assets. So the government takes them, regardless of whether the investor had any idea at the time they made the investment that they would be subject to becoming "insurance" and having their assets effectively taken and converted into potentially worthless equity.
Theory Versus Practice
It should be noted that not everything in this IMF staff discussion note is bad, not by any means, and I encourage you to take the time to read the full discussion. There are numerous aspects that I think many free market-oriented investors would find to be quite appealing.
For example, as part of a bail-in, the bank management that made the bad decisions is expected to be fired.
Also, existing shareholders are supposed to bear the brunt of the loss, and in most cases see the entire value of their shares wiped out before other investors see their own claims involuntarily converted to insurance and equity.
And this is supposed to happen in a transparent manner in which investors understand exactly what they're getting into, before they make the investment. Given that investors then explicitly understand they are investing money that can be taken in a bail-in, the yields they receive should, in theory, fully reflect this.
The SIFIs are supposed to be required to hold a certain percentage of their liabilities in securities that are subject to bail-in, and the market rates they have to pay to attract investors for this effective "insurance" should act as a brake on their taking risky actions, which in practice banking authorities have been unable to prevent.
So in theory – if every essential aspect were enforced and if it were not retroactively applied to investors – the IMF proposal is a very interesting plan when it comes to both incentives and capitalization. The new "insurance" debt may increase the real capitalization of the SIFI by two or three times, radically reducing the chances that a public bail-out would be needed.
Top management and boards of directors would face three new kinds of incentives to stop risking vast sums of public monies in the pursuit of private gain. First, they have to convince the market that risks are under control – and if not, the insurance premium component needed to sell the new securities will put a squeeze on profits that will bring on shareholder pressures for a change in management.
Second, management and boards lose the ability to negotiate, strike deals, take advantage of their insider connections with powerful politicians, or – to not put too fine of point on it – blackmail the public when they get into trouble. Instead, there is no bankruptcy or negotiations, new management and a new board are brought in by the new owners, and former executives are left cleaning their desks out with little leverage.
Third, if they don't like that new incentive structure – they have powerful incentives to not become a SIFI or to stop being one. They are then free to take whatever risks they so choose that are allowable for their type of organization – but without any public guarantees underwriting the risks they take (other than deposit insurance).
So there is a case to be made that if the exact structure were to be enacted, which includes various forms of investor protections as proposed in the IMF discussion note, this could be a net positive for the stability of the global banking system, and an intriguing methodology for using the market to rein in excessive risks that are being taken by major banking institutions, which as a practical matter neither politicians and regulators have been able to do.
But that brings us back to the source of this problem in the first place, and why things have so far been working differently with bail-ins in practice than as proposed by the IMF in theory.
The core problem is one of politics.
The reason this situation exists in the first place is because of politics. And when it comes down to an acute financial crisis – politics continue to rule. So it might be naïve to expect that nations would use this framework the way in which the staff has proposed. Instead, political considerations are likely to rein supreme.
Which means that in the real world, bail-ins are likely to work in a quite different manner – exactly as has happened with the limited cases we've seen in the world so far. Cyprus didn't follow the IMF framework with its bank bail-ins. Neither did Poland with its retirement system bail-in. They just used the massive involuntary taking-from-private-sector-investors component in order to dodge bankruptcy.
Canada's proposal for bail-in rules is also quite troubling in this regard. As can be seen on page 145 (PDF page 155) of the document (linked below), the language is all about the taking from private investors – but there is nothing about the specific securities covered, or the required percentages of "insurance" type securities relative to assets or equities, or the displacement of current shareholders and management.
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-eng.pdf (http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-eng.pdf)
Even more troubling are the rapid and major changes being made to the EU's bail-in legislation, as described in the November 13, 2013 Reuters article, "Plan To Raid Bank Creditors Could Shatter Europe's Calm".
"I hope that serious investors know what they are investing in," said Gunnar Hokmark, a member of the European Parliament who plays a central role in shaping the new law.
"Everything is to be seen as bail-in-able. Depositors are, in the end, bail-in-able. If anyone would be surprised by that, they have been away from the debate for quite a long time."
Originally pencilled in for 2018, these rules will be finalised and possibly accelerated by European Union countries and the bloc's parliament in the coming weeks.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/13/eu-banks-crisis-idUKL5N0IX4LQ20131113 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/13/eu-banks-crisis-idUKL5N0IX4LQ20131113)
In other words, none of the "good stuff" is there when it comes to using market forces and incentives to cure the SIFI problem. There just appears to be a new and massive source of involuntary funding from investors, which doesn't seem to disturb the cozy relationship between politicians, banking regulators, and the politically powerful senior banking executives.
Perhaps these missing components will be there if and when the actual regulations are issued? We can only hope - but it sure doesn't look like it at this point.
What is rapidly emerging instead, in both Europe and North America, is an enabling mechanism for the taking of wealth from those who are judged to be able to bear the pain, so that the general population is bailed out without paying the cost, and in the real world – the politically powerful are still likely to be insulated.
Dysfunctional Global Finances & Governmental Interventions
Something else to keep in mind is that the banking institutions don't have a problem in isolation. Rather, as covered in the IMF document, their fate is closely interwoven with the sovereign governments. So we have a global financial system which remains at high risk, and if sufficiently stressed these institutions could still bring down the global financial order in a very short period of time, potentially even a few days. We know stress will come – we just don't know quite when and where.
Derivatives-led contagion and counterparty risk can still bring down the global financial system like a house of cards – absent powerful interventions.
The governments themselves are deeply in debt, the overall global economy continues to underperform, and many nations have far greater promises which have been made to their populations than they currently have the funds to pay, or are likely to have the funds in the future. So "stimulus" programs keep the global economies running, even as the debts continue to mount up.
And the leading source of government insolvencies over the long term is unfunded and unpayable government promises for retirement benefits.
So we have three separate but tightly interlocked components, with those being effectively bankrupt sovereign governments, effectively bankrupt public retirement systems, and a global system of major financial institutions who have entered into interlocking derivatives contracts, that are subject to collapse at any time when the next major financial stress hits the system.
All three are tightly interlocked; all three are dysfunctional. And the whole thing is held together by increasingly aggressive government interventions. Quantitative easing is of course a government intervention, and the "bail-ins" are another form of government intervention. These stresses grow worse each year as the populations of the United States, Europe and Japan continue to get a little bit older on average, even as the jobs for the young – that are needed to pay for those retirement promises – continue to fail to materialize.
This situation is entirely outside the current media message that the world is getting healthy again and these crises are receding in the rearview mirror. Instead they're escalating, and the system remains more at risk than ever, as covered in the IMF report.
However, despite five years of crisis – the financial order hasn't collapsed yet. And while it certainly could collapse at any time as a result of a political miscalculation, there's frankly no need for the global financial order to collapse. Indeed it could continue to exhibit a surprising stability over time – albeit a completely dysfunctional stability from the perspective of most savers and investors.
How do the governments of the world take this three-part combination of high risk and fragile banks, effectively insolvent governments, and effectively insolvent government retirement programs, and maintain them through time without triggering a collapse?
This is the central question. It is what I have been warning my readers about for some years now, and there are answers.
However, the answers don't lie within the "system as we know it". Instead, what will be (and what is being) done is to change the "system", lest it be destroyed. Which means we should expect extraordinary changes when it comes to 1) the nature of the law, 2) the nature of money itself, and 3) the nature of investments.
While keeping those three categories of changes in mind, it is important to consider the two departments within the International Monetary Fund which cooperated in preparing this extraordinary document. They were the Legal Department, and the Monetary and Capital Market Department. In other words, the departments who deal with the 1) law, 2) money, and 3) investments.
The International Monetary Fund understands exactly how this process works, as does the Federal Reserve, as does United States Treasury department.
To maintain order within dysfunctional underlying economies and avoid financial collapse, the nature of money is changed, the nature of investments are changed, and the law itself is changed over time.
This isn't optional. If those are not done, the system collapses. And everything possible will be done – and is being done right now, in real time – by those currently in power just to avoid such a collapse.
Crucially, this process of changing the law, investments and money is not being done in a neutral or altruistic manner. The difference between the IMF Staff Discussion Note, and EU parliament member Gunnar Hokmark's casual dismissal of the key provisions of that Note as being long-obsolete in the real political world is quite telling.
Bail-Ins are no longer about reforming politically powerful banks using market-based principles – that concept was forced out early when economic theory met the reality of raw political power. What is left is governments wielding a much bigger "stick" when it comes to the ability to take investor assets without restraint.
Bail-Ins and quantitative easing aren't just about finding solutions to crisis that work for the equal benefit of us all. Rather, let me suggest that a pervasive systemic crisis creates opportunities for the politically-driven redistribution of wealth for the benefit of powerful insiders, particularly when the nature of these redistributions is sufficiently complex to keep the average voter or investor from understanding what is happening.
Given this situation, there are few tasks that are more essential for investors over the coming years and decades, than understanding this close three-way relationship between: 1) the underlying dysfunctional economic fundamentals; 2) how those dysfunctions drive governmental interventions in the form of changing the law, money, and investments; and 3) the resulting market changes across multiple investment categories such as precious metals, real estate, stocks and bonds.
Aquilo que uma unidade pode comprar tem que se manter razoavelmente estável. Ao longo de muitos anos certamente que a inflação come o valor, mas tu pareces advogar algo que perca valor ainda substancialmente mais rápido.
January 16, 2014
Gold Breaks Downtrend, Sort Of
([url]http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/charts/weekly/Gold_in_euros_Jan2014.gif[/url])
Which of these statements is true:
1. Gold is still in a downtrend.
2. Gold has broken its downtrend.
It turns out that they are both true, but only if viewed from the proper perspective. The price plot of gold as priced in dollars is still below the declining tops line which dates back to late August 2013. But the same line drawn on the plot of gold priced in euros has already been broken.
So who's right? The short answer is that the euro price of gold has nearly always proven to be "right" when there is a disagreement between the two plots. Such disagreement can appear in a few different forms, but the two I pay most attention to are (1) divergences, and (2) different trendline behavior. It is the second category which is of interest now.
Gold prices have just started the process of building a pattern of higher highs and higher lows to define an uptrend. But we already have a broken downtrend line on the plot of gold priced in euros. A couple of other examples of trendlines on each plot are shown in this week's chart, and you can see that in each case, the euro price plot broke its downtrend line ahead of the equivalent line being broken on the dollar price. Indeed, the leftmost example did not even see the dollar price break its trendline, although there was nevertheless a pop upward after the euro price broke its downtrend.
Whether this sign of a downtrend break is going to turn into a real live uptrend, or just a brief pop and fizzle like the last two, is not something that this difference in behavior tells us. All it says is that there is a disagreement between the dollar price of gold and the euro price. History says that the euro price is nearly always right during such disagreements, so I expect that to be the case again this time.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
[url=http://www.mcoscillator.com]www.mcoscillator.com[/url] ([url]http://www.mcoscillator.com[/url])
German watchdog starts probe into gold price-fixing -report
Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:59pm EST
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/metals-benchmark-probe-idUSL5N0JB4ST20131126[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/metals-benchmark-probe-idUSL5N0JB4ST20131126[/url])
Nov 26 (Reuters) - Germany's financial watchdog BaFin has started a probe into suspected manipulation of benchmark gold and silver prices by banks, the Wall Street Journal Deutschland website reported on Tuesday.
Regulators across the globe have increased oversight of the financial sector, and banks' reputations have been battered by a series of scandals, including trying to manipulate key benchmark rates such as the Libor inter-bank lending rates.
"Apart from Libor and Euribor, BaFin is also looking into other benchmark setting procedures at individual banks such as for gold and silver prices," a BaFin spokesman was quoted as saying by WSJ Deutschland.
The report also said that similar investigations were under way in the United States and Britain, without citing sources.
Officials at BaFin were not immediately available to comment outside regular business hours. (Reporting by Ludwig Burger; Editing by Ken Wills)
Metals, Currency Rigging Worse Than Libor, Bafin’s Koenig Says
By Karin Matussek and Oliver Suess
2014-01-17T00:00:01Z
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html[/url] ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html[/url])
Germany’s top financial regulator said possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion.
The allegations about the currency and precious metals markets are “particularly serious, because such reference values are based -- unlike Libor and Euribor -- typically on transactions in liquid markets and not on estimates of the banks,” Elke Koenig, the president of Bafin, said in a speech in Frankfurt yesterday.
Koenig is the first global finance regulator to comment publicly on the investigations as probes into the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, expand into other benchmarks. Joaquin Almunia, the European Union’s antitrust chief, said this week that its preliminary probe into possible foreign-exchange manipulation covers similar practices as in the regulator’s probe into Libor-rigging.
Bonn-based Bafin said earlier this week it is investigating currency trading, joining regulators in the U.K., U.S. and Switzerland, who are examining whether traders at the world’s largest banks colluded to manipulate the WM/Reuters rates, used by money managers to determine the value of holdings in different currencies.
‘Public Reaction
At least a dozen firms have been contacted by authorities and more than 13 traders have been suspended, fired or put on leave in the currency case. Regulators are examining how traders, who communicated in instant-message groups, exchanged information on client orders and agreed how to trade at the time of the fix, five people with knowledge of the probes said last month.
“That the issue is causing such a public reaction is understandable,” Koenig said. “The financial sector is dependent on the common trust that it is efficient and at the same time, honest. The central benchmark rates seemed to be beyond any doubt, and now there is the allegation they may have been manipulated.”
Bafin interviewed employees of Deutsche Bank AG as part of a probe of potential manipulation of gold and silver prices, a person with knowledge of the matter has said in December. The U.K. finance regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, is also reviewing gold benchmarks as part of its wider investigation into how rates are set.
Firms including Barclays Plc (BARC) and UBS AG (UBSN) have been fined for manipulating Libor and related rates. The European Union fined six firms, including Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale SA (GLE), a record 1.7 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in December for rate-rigging. Ten people have also been charged in parallel U.S. and U.K. criminal investigations into the matter.
To contact the reporters on this story: Karin Matussek in Berlin at kmatussek@bloomberg.net; Oliver Suess in Munich at osuess@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anthony Aarons at aaarons@bloomberg.net
([url]http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/MWimages/MW-BS778_gold_c_ME_20140116170618.jpg[/url])
Está tudo longo no ouro aqui? Ou curto... nem percebo as ideias da malta ...lol
Cair ainda mais?
Está praticamente em cima de um sorte de anos...
Cair ainda mais?
Está praticamente em cima de um sorte de anos...
É como as obrigações, tudo lixo, não há guito para pagar, a divida é monstruosa.... para mim é mel... quando o dia de não as pagar chegar já as vendi à muito tempo, tal como no ouro, não tenciono ficar com ele até aos 2000usdCair ainda mais?
Está praticamente em cima de um sorte de anos...
Chegará o dia em que os felizes proprietários de sacos dourados ficarão a segurar o saco. :D
Cair ainda mais?
Está praticamente em cima de um sorte de anos...
Chegará o dia em que os felizes proprietários de sacos dourados ficarão a segurar o saco. :D
É como as obrigações, tudo lixo, não há guito para pagar, a divida é monstruosa.... para mim é mel... quando o dia de não as pagar chegar já as vendi à muito tempo, tal como no ouro, não tenciono ficar com ele até aos 2000usd
Segue-se um artigo interessante do Ned Naylor-Leyland pela comparação do mercado do "ouro" com as outras divisas, bem como a alavancagem estimada do mercado do "ouro" feita pelo RBI [Reserve Bank of India] e membro da LBMA [London Bullion Market Association] que se cifra em 92x. Para pôr as coisas em perpectiva, há que relembrar a comparação do mercado do "ouro" com o mercado da mais líquida das commodities aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg63553.html#msg63553[/url]) e aqui ([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php/topic,330.msg63556.html#msg63556[/url]), onde se viu que a cada dia transaciona 1/12 da produção mundial anual de petróleo e 1/4 da produção mundial anual de ouro.CitarGold Update
By: Ned Naylor-Leyland
Cheviot Asset Management Limited
[url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url] ([url]http://www.scribd.com/doc/152683206/Gold-Update-July-2013[/url])
In light of the deep sell-off in the Gold price, I present 3 charts to clarify what has (and hasn’t) happened. Chart 1 is a chart of Spot Gold, the second an illustration of what makes up the daily ‘Gold’ market, the third shows the enormous flow of physical metal from West to East in the context of Global mine supply. There is an ongoing clash between the forces of paper supply and physical demand – paper supply has won the latest round, but its objective of satisfying and slaking demand for the real metal has failed entirely.
The spot price graph is annotated with events that have happened since Q3 2012. All of these points (1-6) seem pertinent when evaluating the sell-off in paper Gold, but none more so than the entry of the Gold market into a state of permanent backwardation around a year ago (1). With vast above ground inventories (supposedly) available to borrow, the Gold and Silver markets should not offer a risk-free arbitrage for any amount of time. The fact that it has remained and widened over a year indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid in Shanghai and Delhi (in Delhi dealers are paying over a 25% premium for NNS 8g fine Gold vs 2% in Q4 2012) and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage (2 tons or above).
- Why did Germany do a massive and highly embarrassing U-turn about its sovereign Gold reserves being held in New York?
- Why did the NY Fed then say it would take 7 years to return that Gold?
- Wouldn’t the reality of bank deposits being lined up for bank ‘bail-ins’ be exceptionally bullish for a liability-free form of wealth preservation?
- What does the scale of interest in buying physical in Asia (growing rapidly) mean for the dynamics of price discovery going forwards? Is it sustainable for nigh on all this year’s physical Gold mine supply to have been delivered through one small futures market in Shanghai?
None of these questions have been satisfactorily answered by sellers, or bears, of Precious Metals who focus solely on the ‘spot price’ without reference to the ‘spot mechanism’. Few understand what money flows come together to create the ‘spot price’ of Gold. My Chart of Daily Volumes shows the Gold investment ‘market’ up for what it really is – a vast, sprawling, OTC and almost totally unregulated dark pool.
It seems evident to me that as backwardation first started to properly grip the bullion market mid last year (where the shaded area of the graph starts), the playbook to manage the Gold price went into overdrive. In light of the backwardation between spot and the front month, the spot price duly broke out from its consolidation pattern (see purple annotation). This was a ‘code red’ signal for the bullion banking system, I wrote about it last year although I felt the inevitable disconnect would happen in a rising rather than falling price environment. Everything that followed from Point 1 should be observed in light of this crucial ongoing silence from the Golden canary in the fiat coalmine.
GOLDS Comdty (GOLD SPOT $/OZ)
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11961;image[/url])
Source: Bloomberg. As of 02/07/13
To understand what is meant by that, let us look at the‘Gold’ market in context of average daily volumes in currency markets. Gold is a huge and misunderstood market. Most investors see it as a ‘simple’ asset class and assume broadly that, outside of futures and options, the market is 1:1 backed by physical metal.Nothing could be further from the truth. The ETF market is nominally backed 1:1, but in terms of daily volumes represents a meagre 1-2% overall. The rest is split between the COMEX futures market and the OTC ‘loco London’ currency pair market, where banks and investors cross vast amounts of money against Gold, generally without allocated metal backing. If the LBMA want to come out from behind the curtain and talk about true bullion inventories versus traded volumes then I would happily assess that data, but for the time being they prefer to remain conveniently opaque. The best information we have is from The Reserve Bank of India, an LBMA member, who state that the OTC market and futures and options are 92xgreater than the underlying physical market. The ratio expressed in my adapted ‘Daily Volumes in Context’ chart pretty much confirms the best-guess RBI leverage ratio. Considering that the Bank of England is worried about Barclays’ leverage ratio (having risen to the giddy heights of 40:1 again with the need for a minimum of £8bn in fresh capital asap) I find it extraordinary that investors do not notice that the Gold price is presently defined by a market which operates using around a 90:1 leverage ratio. This cannot, and will not, end well for holders of synthetic Gold, or the banking system overall. Indeed, the recent raids onthe spot price have just brought forward the day of reckoning for the present price discovery mechanism by stimulating yet further draw downs on physical inventories.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11962;image[/url])
As of 02/07/13
Most of the purchasers of ‘Gold’ in f/x markets (ticker XAU) have no physical backing to their trades(estimated to be around 90% unallocated). This is the nature of the OTC ‘Gold’ currency market.Considering that most people invest in Gold exactly because they fear the fractional reserve nature of the banking system, this is a bizarre state of affairs and I believe has led us to the widening backwardation we now see as the new ‘normal’. What is happening now is that the absolutely inevitable ‘run’ on the 100:1leveraged Bullion banking system is truly underway.The bullion banks want to get Gold back into contango and stop the movement of the remaining inventories by shaking the market lower, using paper leverage to do so. It hasn’t worked, indeed more and more investors are now seeking allocation, delivery and physical metal at the expense of synthetic products offered by the banks. The squeeze we have been waiting for is closing in, it is always darkest just before dawn.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=11963;image[/url])
As of 28/06/13
Ned Naylor-Leyland
July 2013
Ps. Quanto ao short squeese que o Ned espera, veremos qual será a cotação das roupas do rei quando as crianças começarem a dizer que o rei vai nu...
50%??? Bem .. então se calhar só a vendo mesmo nos 2000usd
Comecei a acumular acções mineiras de ouro e prata. Tiveram quebras violentissimas e 2014 pode ser o ano da viragem.
Nesta altura HUI está a cotar ao mesmo nível de quando o ouro estava a 700-800.
Contudo, penso que o GDXJ, e ainda bem que há uns tempos o Neo o referiu (pois eu não tinha dado o devido valor) será melhor que GLD.
De facto pode ser o ano de viragem.
Mas para mim, ainda não está nada definido.
Grafico xau yahho? O que é isso?Se fosses lá ao Yahoo vias que seria:
Fiquei a saber o mesmo, mas ok.
Entretanto o ouro está a perder a pica toda...
Sniper, acho que é isto:
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index[/url] ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index[/url])
Fiquei a saber o mesmo, mas ok.
Entretanto o ouro está a perder a pica toda...
so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDXFicou overbought, e por isso eu ontem sai da minha segunda parte do GDXJ.
so +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX
The price of gold and the level of interest rates have been highly correlated:
–If interest rates rise to 4%, the price of gold could fall to about $800/ounce
–If interest rates rise to 5%, the price of gold could fall to about $500/ounce
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 2%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,500
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 1%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,900
CitarThe price of gold and the level of interest rates have been highly correlated:
–If interest rates rise to 4%, the price of gold could fall to about $800/ounce
–If interest rates rise to 5%, the price of gold could fall to about $500/ounce
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 2%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,500
–“Pain trade, short squeeze”, rates fall to 1%, the price of gold could rise to about $1,900
ver mais ([url]https://doc-0o-98-docs.googleusercontent.com/docs/securesc/ha0ro937gcuc7l7deffksulhg5h7mbp1/be2nmthc6b4irfio6jtcrr1sn0nbreed/1390392000000/13834021888010498974/[/url]*/0B4XW2DGumuv5dnVUTkJWQlJNY3pQX3FwanljNGpXV3U4dVdz?h=16653014193614665626&e=download)
Citarso +2 dias de subida e meto um short no GDX
Já estás a querer estragar a festa pah, deixa lá a malta divertir-se mais um pouco!!!
É a média móvel dos 200 que se aproxima?
Não vendo nada, a minha ideia é reforçar no retracement.
China becomes top gold consumer in 2013
By Xan Rice
January 23, 2014 1:00 pm
[url]http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a48854c-8427-11e3-9903-00144feab7de.html[/url] ([url]http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a48854c-8427-11e3-9903-00144feab7de.html[/url])
China has overtaken India as the world’s largest gold consumer thanks to soaring purchases of jewellery, minted Panda coins and small gold bars.
According to the Thomson Reuters GFMS gold survey, the most widely followed report on the industry, Chinese demand reached 1,189.8 tonnes last year, a 32 per cent year-on-year jump and a fivefold increase since 2003.
Its hungry factories and mushrooming cities had already made China the number one global consumer of industrial metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc.
The frenetic buying of gold in China, which led to a temporary shortage of physical stocks, was sparked by the 28 per cent fall in the precious metal’s price last year, the worst performance in more than three decades.
Following a 12-year bull run, gold lost its lustre in Europe and North America as economic conditions improved and the prospects of inflation receded. Western investors dumped gold-backed exchange traded funds in 2013, with holdings falling by 880 tonnes.
A simultaneous “Asian-led buying frenzy”, with consumers chasing bargains, resulted in gold bars being removed from vaults in Europe and other markets, melted into smaller bars in Swiss refineries, and shipped to the East. GFMS described the flow as the “largest movement of gold, by value, in history”.
Indian consumption rose 5 per cent to 987.2 tonnes last year, but was held back by new import tariffs and restrictions. In China there were no brakes. Gold jewellery fabrication rose nearly a third to 724 tonnes, surpassing India for the first time, and the retail sector boomed. In July and August, more than 200 gold showrooms opened in the southern city of Shenzhen.
Because many Chinese buy jewellery for investment reasons rather than adornment, high purity 24 carat gold products dominated sales. Purchases of physical bars – mostly kilobars and smaller weights – rose 47 per cent to 366 tonnes, a new record. In terms of gold coins, only Turkey minted more than China in 2013.
“Gold has always been popular culturally in China and now it’s increasingly seen as an asset class for individuals,” said Andrew Leyland, manager of precious metals demand at GFMS. “Greater wealth and disposable incomes created pent-up demand when prices were high, so when they dropped there was this phenomenal surge in buying.”
Were it not for Chinese purchases, the gold price would have been at risk of further falls. Outside Asia, investor appetite for the metal has remained weak, and few analysts expect the gold price to recover this year. GFMS forecasts an average price for 2014 of $1,225 a troy ounce – around $20 below current level – with physical demand remaining solid “but without a repeat of the bargain hunting surge”.
In recent years, China has also become the world’s biggest gold producer, with estimated output of 437.3 tonnes last year. Although there are no official figures, some of that metal is thought to have been purchased by the People’s Bank of China. The central bank last reported holdings of 1,054 tonnes, in 2009.
No plans to roll back gold import curbs - Chidambaram
by Suvashree Choudhury & Siddesh Mayenkar
Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:14pm IST
[url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/gold-india-chidambaram-idINDEEA0M08620140123[/url] ([url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/gold-india-chidambaram-idINDEEA0M08620140123[/url])
(Reuters) - India is not planning any changes to its record import duty on gold and other restrictions on imports until the current account deficit is firmly under control, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram told CNBC TV18 in Davos.
"Until we have a firm grip on the current account deficit I do not contemplate any roll back in any measure. We will have a full idea of the current account deficit only when the budget is presented and when the year comes to an end," Chidambaram said.
He was answering a question about an earlier TV report that Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the ruling Congress party, had written to the government asking for gold import restrictions to be eased. Chidambaram said he had not read the letter.
India has a record 10 percent import duty and a rule that says 20 percent of all imports must leave the country as exports. India used to be the world's biggest buyer of bullion until the government introduced the curbs in order to contain a record current account deficit.
India's fiscal year ends on March 31, 2014 and the budget will be presented in February.
Alex Stanczyk: Physical Supply Never Been Tighter
by Koos Jansen
on December 5, 2013 at 8:08 pm
[url]http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/alex-stanczyk-physical-supply-never-been-tighter[/url] ([url]http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/alex-stanczyk-physical-supply-never-been-tighter[/url])
Wednesday I had the privilege again to interview Alex Stanczyk, Chief Market Strategist for the Anglo Far- East group of companies, who just returned from a trip to Switzerland. Alex confirmed to me the distribution of gold from west to east is not slowing down whatsoever. Refineries in Switzerland are still working 24 hour a day to cast bars for China, sometimes having difficulties sourcing the gold..
What was the purpose of your trip to Switzerland?CitarThe purpose was two fold. We go to Switzerland once a year as part of our governance, we’re required to have an annual inspection of the gold, that was the main purpose of the trip. But in addition to that we also liked to talk to the refineries. It was myself, it was the managing director of Anglo Far-East mister Philip Judge, and Jim Rickards went with us, he sits on our advisory board.
We met with the managing director of the largest refinery in Switzerland and spend about two hours talking to him, we learned some very interesting things. Whats going on in the gold market as far as the price, is I think very counter intuitive. Everybody understands, knows and believes the price should be higher than it is, but it isn’t. There’s confusion in the marketplace, and there are two reactions; the reaction in the west is fear, confusion and uncertainty; the reaction in the east is buying. Now, this gentleman we were talking to probably has a better idea of physical gold flow than anybody else globally. He sees what is coming from the mines, he sees what is coming from the UK, and all over the world, as well as where its going. He indicated the price didn’t make sense because he has got so much fabrication demand. They put on three shifts, they’re working 24 hours a day, and originally he thought that would wind down at some point. Well, they’ve been doing it all year. Every time he thinks its going to slow down, he gets more orders, more orders, more orders. They have expanded the plant to where it almost doubles their capacity. 70 % of their kilobar fabrication is going to China, at apace of 10 tons a week. That’s from one refinery, now remember there are 4 of these big ones [refineries] in Switzerland.
That makes sense because withdraws from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults are 40 tons a week on average this year.CitarWell, there you go.
…At this Swiss refinery there have been several times this year on which they were unable to source gold, this shocked me. They’re bringing in good delivery bars, scrap and dore from the mines, basically all they can get their hands on. This gentleman has been in the business for 37 years, he was there during the last bull market in the late seventies. I asked him when was the last time this has happened, that he was unable to source gold, he said never. And I clarified it, I asked: let me make sure if I understand what you’re saying to me, in the last 37 years you’ve worked in the gold industry this has never happened? He said: this has never happened.
…There was one other comment that was fascinating, he said sometimes when they get gold in, it’s coming from the back corners of the vaults. He knew this because these were good delivery bars marked in the sixties. This is a huge supply squeeze and its worse than anything that has happened in the last four decades. At some point there is going to be a massive squeeze on the price.
…All four Swiss refineries combined may be doing as much as [supply China] 2000 tons this year. That doesn’t include what the Perth Mint ships to China, it doesn’t include the 400 tons the Chinese mined domestically, and it doesn’t include what they mined offshore with the mining companies they own all over the world. I suspect that total Chinese demand can reach as much as total global mining production this year.
…He also noted, in China there are 6 LBMA refineries but he has never seen a Chinese gold bar, they’re keeping it all. Gold that goes into China is like going into a black-hole. I don’t think it will be available on the market for decades to come, which only tightens the physical supply.
…The Chinese aren’t buying it for trading, they’re buying it as part of their wealth foundation for future generations. When the communists came to power in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and the nationalist army fled the country and took all the gold with them. On that moment China had no gold, although they had thousands of years of history with gold, they had to start all over. I think the importance of rebuilding their gold reserves had been there in the last decades, but it accelerated the last three years or so, encouraging their people heavily to buy.
I also heard there is strong kilobar demand from the Middel East.CitarThat’s because Dubai does a lot of clearing for that entire area. Given what’s happening to Saudi Arabia, and the potential that Saudi Arabia is separating itself from the United States, essentially the whole petro-dollar is at risk for them. Normally what they would do is sell their oil for dollars and then buy US treasuries, but if they’re gonna separate from the US they’re not gonna buy US treasuries. So what are they gonna buy?
Gold?CitarYes, possibly. That’s what we think. We don’t think they will be buying US treasuries, they supported them for 40 years, but the US has basically stabbed them in the back.
Alasdair Macleod actually said, on the Keiser Report ([url]http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-528-max-keiser-270/[/url]), that a lot of 400 ounce bars from the Middle East are being refined in Switzerland into 1 K 4 nine bars [a gold bar of 1 kilogram, 99.99 % purity] and then sent back. Is the 1 K 4 nine bar becoming some new form of liquidity?CitarPossibly, all the demand that we can see in China is for 1 K bars. They want kilo, and they want four nines.
When do think the price is going to rise?CitarI’m not comfortable to put a time on this. What I do know is that we are on the threshold of a situation that has never occurred before. A squeeze is imminent, it could take 3 months or 6 months, but all I know is that it’s coming, and I know that with 100 % certainty.
In Gold We Trust
Gold Mint Runs Overtime in Race to Meet World Coin Demand
By Debarati Roy
2014-01-27T07:22:14Z
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/gold-mint-runs-overtime-in-race-to-meet-world-coin-demand.html[/url] ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/gold-mint-runs-overtime-in-race-to-meet-world-coin-demand.html[/url])
Austria’s mint is running 24 hours a day as global mints from the U.S. to Australia report climbing demand for gold coins even while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says this year’s price rebound will end.
Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG mint hired extra employees and added a third eight-hour shift to the day in a bid to keep up with demand. Purchases of bullion coins at Australia’s Perth Mint rose 20 percent this year through Jan. 20 from a year earlier. Sales by the U.S. Mint are set for the best month since April, when the metal plunged into a bear market.
Global mints are manufacturing as fast as they can after a 28 percent drop in gold prices last year, the biggest slump since 1981, attracted buyers of physical metal. The demand gains helped bullion rally for five straight weeks, the longest streak since September 2012. That won’t be enough to stem the metal’s slump according to Morgan Stanley, while Goldman Sachs Group predicts bullion will “grind lower” over 2014.
“The long-term physical buyers see these price drops as opportunities to accumulate more assets,” said Michael Haynes, the chief executive officer of American Precious Metals Exchange, an online bullion dealer. “We have witnessed some top selling days in the past few weeks.”
Gold futures in New York climbed 5.2 percent this month to $1,268.29 an ounce, heading for the first gain since August. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials slid 1.1 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World index of equities dropped 2.9 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, advanced 0.7 percent.
Prices Rebound
Prices rebounded more than 7 percent since reaching a 34-month low in June as physical buying rose. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s largest bullion bourse, delivered 2,197 metric tons to customers in 2013, compared with 1,139 tons in 2012, it said Jan. 15. The Asian country topped India as the world’s top buyer last year as demand probably reached a record, the World Gold Council estimates.
The U.K.’s Royal Mint, which traces its history back more than 1,000 years, ran out of 2014 Sovereign gold coins because of “exceptional demand,” it said in a statement on Jan. 8. Coins weren’t available to customers until six days later when inventories were replenished. Sales by the Perth Mint, which also has workers producing coins in three shifts a day, will probably beat last year’s record, Ron Currie, the marketing director, said Jan. 20.
Goldman, Morgan
Bullion tumbled in 2013 after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, snapping 12 straight years of gains. Holdings through exchange-traded products fell 33 percent in the past 12 months, erasing $69.1 billion from the value of the funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices also fell as U.S. equities rallied and inflation remained low.
Goldman expects bullion to fall to $1,050 in the next 12 months as the Federal Reserve reduces monetary stimulus, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, said in a report Jan. 12. Precious metals are Morgan Stanley’s “least preferred” commodities, and physical demand won’t be enough to buoy prices, analysts Adam Longson, Bennett Meier and Peter Richardson said in a Jan. 17 report. The bank cut its 2014 target 12 percent to $1,160 on Jan. 22.
“Prices are likely to drop further as global economic conditions are stabilizing and tapering worries continue,” said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees about $110 billion of assets. “There is no doubt that physical demand has improved, but it will not be enough to support prices.”
Coin Sales
The U.S. Mint, the world’s largest, sold 89,500 ounces so far this month. The Austrian mint that makes Philharmonic coins, saw sales jump 36 percent last year and expects “good business” for the next couple of months, Andrea Lang, the marketing and sales director of Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG, said in an e-mail.
“The market is very busy,” Lang said. “We can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime.”
The price for the Austrian mint’s 1-ounce Philharmonic gold coin slumped 27 percent last year, according to data from the Certified Coin Exchange.
“It’s been a very bad year for gold,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “People who bought coins have lost value, but they are not looking at short-term gains, and hope springs eternal.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net
Physical Gold Shortage Goes Mainstream
by Tyler Durden
on 01/18/2014 23:18 -0500
[url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-18/physical-gold-shortage-goes-mainstream[/url] ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-18/physical-gold-shortage-goes-mainstream[/url])
While the topic of rehypothecation and the shortage of physical gold ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-18/socgen-physical-gold-squeeze-returns[/url]) is well covered here at Zero Hedge (and the ever-changing COMEX gold vaults' inventories), it appears the concept of the exploding "leverage" ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rehypotecation-unwind-begins-hsbc-sues-mf-global-over-disputed-ownership-physical-gold[/url]) or default risk of the COMEX ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-rehypothecation-infinte-leverage-and-why-breaking-tyrrany-ignorance-only-solution[/url]) has now hit the mainstream media. As BNN reports ([url]http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/1/17/Buy-physical-gold-and-avoid-paper-CME-Trader.aspx[/url]), veteran trader Tres Knippa, pointing to recent futures data, says "there may not be enough gold to go around if everyone with a futures contract insists on taking delivery of physical bullion." As he goes on to explain to a disquieted anchor, "the underlying story here is that the people acquiring physical gold continue to do that. And that’s what is important," noting large investors like hedge fund manager Kyle Bass are taking delivery of the gold they're buying. Knippa's parting advice, buy physical gold; avoid paper.
One of the problems...
([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/01/120140118_gold.jpg[/url])
Hedging by gold miners at decade low in Sept quarter
by Rajesh Bhayani
on January 30, 2014
[url]http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-mines-hedge-book-shrinks-to-a-decade-low-114013000943_1.html[/url] ([url]http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-mines-hedge-book-shrinks-to-a-decade-low-114013000943_1.html[/url])
Hedging by gold miners fell to a decadal low in the quarter ended September, according to the latest quarterly Thomson Reuters GFMS Société Générale Global Hedge Book Analysis.
Globally, gold mining companies hedge their production in the derivatives market, usually in options, to lock earnings. When prices fall, hedging takes a knock. "At the end of September, the outstanding global hedge book was 2.94 million oz, the lowest since our quarterly series began in 2002," said the report.
Mines have either allowed hedges to mature as scheduled, or proactively to close contracts for a profit and use the proceeds to repay debt. "To date, fresh hedging in this lower price environment has remained comparatively modest," said Cameron Alexander, manager (precious metals demand), Asia, GFMS Thomson Reuters, responding to a Business Standard query on the hedging positions of mines.
Generally, gold producers/mines refrain from hedging when they feel prices will fall further. Foreseeing a scenario of price rise, they hedge. In the last phase of the bull run, many mines that had sold or hedged production cut their positions (dehedging), which raised prices further. However, due to a sudden crash in gold prices in April 2013 led to miners staying away from hedging when prices averaged $1,326/oz in the September quarter.
In subsequent months, prices corrected, putting pressure on many mines, as prices traded below mining costs for many. The GFMS global average gold mining cost, including corporate expenses, stands at $1,350/oz; even after considering write-downs, it stands at $1,200/oz.
According to the report, efforts to cut costs have begun across the sector. Producers have cut non-essential capital expenditure, put in place wage freezes, cut corporate overheads and, wherever possible, optimised mine plans for higher throughput and higher grade ore processing, leading to reduced mine lives. Further, some large multi-asset producers have divested some of their higher cost mines and begun mine closures. This will afford them a certain degree of flexibility in the current environment.
"If gold prices fall further, we believe this will lead to a growing willingness to hedge, and we, therefore, expect a return to net hedging this year, with larger-scale hedging activity in 2015 and 2016. There may be pressure from shareholders to protect revenue streams in a declining price environment," says Alexander.
The crisis in the mining sector isn't likely to end soon. The fact that mines cut production (to cut losses when prices are low and don't cover costs) could support prices, but that will depend on whether the fall in demand is lower than the fall in production.
Alexander said, "Mine supply is expected to edge lower this year, before decreasing more rapidly in 2015 and 2016. Through 2014, a number of new operations will largely compensate for scheduled decreases in output from ageing mines elsewhere, as well as the supply lost due to the small number of operations closed so far on account of unsustainably high costs. From 2015, we expect to see more widespread closures or suspensions, as declining gold prices cut more deeply into the cost curve for a sustained period."
Como é que o custo de mineração rondam os $1200 e o preço do ouro esteve quase sempre abaixo desse valor? Assim seria uma actividade sempre deficitária.
Como é que o custo de mineração rondam os $1200 e o preço do ouro esteve quase sempre abaixo desse valor? Assim seria uma actividade sempre deficitária.
As gold supplies are squeezed, India's jewellery imports soar
By Siddesh Mayenkar
On Wed Feb 5, 2014 5:38am EST
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/india-gold-idUSL3N0L427A20140205[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/india-gold-idUSL3N0L427A20140205[/url])
MUMBAI, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Indian jewellers are stepping up imports of finished gold jewellery from Dubai and Singapore, as a record high import tax on the metal and rising premiums demanded by sellers are choking bullion supplies in the world's second-biggest consumer.
India has put in place measures to dissuade gold buying to tackle a widening trade deficit, including a 10 percent import tax and a requirement that a fifth of all imports of the metal be shipped out. As a result, domestic sellers are asking for up to 10 percent more than quoted gold prices for deliveries.
The measures are making finished jewellery imports a viable option and could even reshape the domestic jewellery industry by luring their manufacturing overseas.
Gold jewellery imports have surged nearly four times to 4-5 tonnes in January from 1.0-1.5 tonnes two months prior to that, according to the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, which represents more than 300,000 jewellers.
A 10-gram gold chain from Dubai costs 27,000 rupees ($430), about 10 percent lower than the cost in India, said Raman Solanki, owner of Mumbai-based Sangam Jewels and Gold, who now regularly imports from Dubai. The cheaper price is even after adding a 15 percent duty that finished jewellery imports attract.
Indian jewellers import finished jewellery either to sell directly or to melt to make customised designs.
"Since there is no gold available, we import jewellery as it fits well with our costing. We imported about 700-800 kg of jewellery from Dubai last month," said Prithviraj Kothari, managing director of Mumbai-based Riddhisiddhi Bullions Ltd.
Dubai-based wholesaler Siroya Jewellers, which exports to India, has also seen a spurt in jewellery sales to India.
"There is demand for jewellery from India due to a shortage of gold there," said Rajesh Jain, a partner at Siroya Jewellers.
MANUFACTURING MOVING OVERSEAS?
Cheaper imports of finished jewellery now pose a threat to local jewellery manufacturing units that employ more than 10 million workers, excluding retail store employees.
Hit by lower availability of gold, a few Indian jewellery makers such as Gitanjali Exports are also thinking of raising capacities at their overseas manufacturing units.
"Some jewellery exporters are definitely contemplating shifting part of their production to other locations like Thailand, Malaysia and China," said Sanjeev Agarwal, chief executive of Gitanjali Exports, a unit of Gitanjali Gems .
Gitanjali Exports is planning to increase capacities at its units in China and Thailand, said Agarwal.
To make gold readily available for jewellers, the government should remove the condition that forces importers to export 20 percent of their overseas purchases, said Bachharaj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.
There are indications that India may give in to the demand, but only after March when the government would get to know about the exact extent of the trade deficit.
Gold imports fell to just 21 tonnes in November against a record 162 tonnes in May last year, pushing up premiums to a record $160 an ounce on London prices. It has also triggered a huge rise in smuggling and recycling.
In its efforts to curb illegal imports, New Delhi focuses more on big buyers, with jewellers now required to give details of any purchase of gold bars or jewellery worth more than 500,000 rupees as at the end of January. ($1 = 62.61 rupees) (Editing by Mayank Bhardwaj and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
Não terminou hoje nem a semana passasa nem o mês passado, é deixar subir, é deixar subir
Ouro a subir 9 USD no início da sessão de hoje.... a correlação inversa do Ouro com os movimentos dos indices US terminou
Agora sobem os dois a ver quem sobe mais ...
BN
Deutsche Bank resigns gold, silver fix seat, gives two weeks' notice
Tue Apr 29, 2014 2:33pm GMT
[url]http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0NL5DM20140429[/url] ([url]http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0NL5DM20140429[/url])
LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has resigned its seat on the London gold and silver fix without finding a buyer, a spokesman for the bank said on Tuesday.
A source close to the matter said the bank gave two weeks' notice and it will cease to be part of the price-setting process as of May 13.
(Reporting by Clara Denina; Editing by Dale Hudson)
Banks Sued on Claims of Fixing Price of Gold
By ALAN FEUER
May 5, 2014, 9:04 pm
[url]http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/banks-sued-on-claims-of-fixing-price-of-gold/?_php=true&_type=blogs&emc=eta1&_r=0[/url] ([url]http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/05/banks-sued-on-claims-of-fixing-price-of-gold/?_php=true&_type=blogs&emc=eta1&_r=0[/url])
Frustrated traders and offbeat activists ([url]http://www.gata.org/about[/url]) have complained for years in whispers and in online screeds that the price of gold has been subject to collusion. On Monday, these accusations of manipulation found a more august arena for expression: the federal courts.
At a 40-minute hearing, lawyers for more than 20 plaintiffs gathered in Federal District Court in Manhattan to coordinate their linked lawsuits against the five banks that make up what is known as the London gold fix. The suits, filed by hedge funds, private citizens and public investors like the Alaska Electrical Pension Fund, contend that the banks have used their privileged positions as market makers to rig the price of gold to their benefit.
The lawsuits — the first of which was filed in March — question the integrity of the gold fix, which dates to 1919, when a handful of bankers began to meet in the wood-paneled offices of N. M. Rothschild & Sons in London. The purpose of the fix is to set a benchmark price for gold, which is subsequently used by dealers, central banks and mining firms to buy and sell the precious metal and its various derivatives.
These days, the fix takes place by phone twice a day — at 10:30 a.m. London time and again at 3 p.m. — and generally lasts 10 minutes to an hour.
According to one of the suits, “The ‘great flaw’ of the gold fixing process is that the member banks trade on the information exchanged during the call to manipulate the price of gold and gold derivatives before publication of the gold fix to the wider market.”
Each of the banks — Barclays, Scotiabank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Société Générale — denied, or declined to comment, on the accusations of collusion, which — at least traditionally — have been dismissed as a conspiracy theory. Nonetheless, concerns that the gold fix may be rigged have escalated of late in part because of investigations into the setting of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and suspicions about manipulation of global foreign exchange rates.
“A lot of conspiracy theories have turned out to be conspiracy fact,” said Kevin Maher, a former gold trader from New York, who filed the first suit against the banks. (The case is Maher v. Bank of Nova Scotia, 14-cv-01459.) “We now know that Libor was manipulated and that a bad odor is coming out of the Forex market. So why not gold?”
Mr. Maher, who started trading gold in 1993, said he filed his suit reluctantly and only after he became convinced that official regulators were unwilling or unable to investigate the fix. “I didn’t feel like there was any oversight, either from the government or from self-regulating entities,” he said in an interview last month. “A lawsuit seemed to be the only means to rectify the problem.”
Over the last few weeks, so many plaintiffs have joined Mr. Maher with copycat complaints that a hearing was held to consolidate the cases and to appoint a lead lawyer. The fourth-floor courtroom was so full of lawyers that it took nearly 15 minutes for all of them to introduce themselves. “I want to do this in an organized way to figure out who’s who,” said Valerie E. Caproni, the presiding judge. “Not,” she added, “that I’ll remember.”
The lawsuits — and there are still more being filed — center on two main aspects of the gold fix: the fact that it is unregulated and that member banks can trade gold, and gold derivatives, during the call.
“The gold fix is by its very nature not transparent and therefore vulnerable to conspiratorial and manipulative behavior,” one of the suits maintains. The suit claims: “The lack of prohibition against trading during the calls allows defendants to gain an unfair trading advantage because pricing information exchanged during the calls provides them with insight into the immediate future direction of gold and gold derivative prices.”
As proof that collusion exists, the suits point to a handful of academic studies — some of them unpublished — that describe what one of the studies calls “significant spikes in trading volume during, but not after, the fixing period, when defendants are free to share information with each other and their clients.” Because the fix is private and not monitored, it enables its participants “to coordinate with their respective trading desks,” one suit said, and “to disseminate information” about the price of gold “while the process is occurring.”
The price-setting of gold has drawn some regulatory scrutiny, particularly in Britain and Germany.
The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain began looking at other benchmark rates, including for gold and silver, as part of its investigation into the rigging of Libor, a person briefed on the matter said.
The Federal Financial Supervisory Authority of Germany, or BaFin, has acknowledged that it is looking at the trading of precious metals as part of its inquiry into potential manipulation of the currency markets.
More than 20 traders have been suspended or fired as part of internal investigations into potential manipulation of currency markets. But no suspensions have emerged related to precious metals trading.
In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission routinely reviews the prices of commodities, but has not opened a formal investigation into gold, a person close to the agency said.
Deutsche Bank has announced that it will no longer participate in the fix as of May 13, though it still remains a defendant in the consolidated cases. Judge Caproni is considering whether to split the plaintiffs into two groups — one for those that trade physical gold and another for those that trade gold futures — but her decision will not come until at least the end of May.
UPDATE 3-Historic silver price benchmark bites the dust as banks pull out
By A. Ananthalakshmi and Clara Denina
Wed May 14, 2014 8:00pm IST
[url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/silver-fix-idINL3N0O02LD20140514[/url] ([url]http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/silver-fix-idINL3N0O02LD20140514[/url])
SINGAPORE/LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - The 117-year old London silver price benchmark - or fix - will cease on Aug. 14, its operator said, as regulatory scrutiny of price-setting intensifies across markets.
The fix is set once a day by banks getting together via telephone to work out a price, based on deals between their clients. It is used by producers, consumers and investors who use it to base contracts on.
The announcement by the London Silver Market Fixing Ltd on Wednesday left a question mark over the role of a benchmark, which could be replaced an electronic alternative.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said it had launched a consultation among market participants "to try and ensure that there is something that replaces the silver fix."
"We don't have a lot of time until August 14," a spokesman said. "We will be talking to people who can help administer."
The LBMA said it will approach miners and users of the benchmarks, regulators and potential administrators requesting feedback.
Some users said they were taken aback by the silver fix loss.
"I'm a customer of the fix, and I have to say, I'm completely in the dark about this," one precious metals trader said.
Players have been investigating ways to offer a more transparent way of disseminating information throughout the gold and silver fix. Over the past few months bullion banks have been contemplating a move to electronic platforms to respond to tighter regulatory requirements.
A source close to Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it was pursuing frequent talks with the administrators of price benchmarks.
"You are likely to see an increased professionalization of benchmarks as an industry," the source said.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) currently distributes gold and silver forward rates on behalf of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).
"We are always looking at ways to expand our product offering, and are ready to expand our range of price discovery and post-trade tools to further service the precious metals market," the LME said in a statement.
DEUTSCHE POSTPONES RESIGNATION
The gold and silver fixes, along with other commodity benchmarks, has come under increasing scrutiny by regulators in Europe and the United States since the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) manipulation case last year.
Deutsche Bank's decision earlier this year to leave the fix process raised questions about its future as a process.
The banks are also facing lawsuits accusing them of alleged gold price manipulation.
The lawsuits have not targeted the silver fix, but in a five-year probe the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigated allegations that some of the world's biggest bullion banks distorted silver futures prices.
After 7,000 staff hours of investigation, the regulator found no evidence of wrongdoing and dropped the probe last September.
Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia will continue to participate in the fix until the August deadline, London Silver Market Fixing Ltd said
The period until then would be used for adjustment, with consultation between clients and market participants.
Deutsche Bank's resignation in April from its gold and silver fixing seats left just HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia to set prices.
A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that Deutsche Bank had postponed its resignation, responding to a specific request from Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
"The other banks may have indicated to the regulator that they were looking to withdraw as well and so to make this an orderly affair Deutsche was asked to postpone the date of resignation," the source said. (Additional reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Veronica Brown and William Hardy)
Nao percebo a admiração ate poque todos os mercados sao claramente manipulados isso e noticias para ingles ver andam a caca de bruxas lol
With London "fix" under fire, China seeks bigger sway in gold trade
Mon May 26, 2014 5:01pm EDT
By A. Ananthalakshmi
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/26/china-gold-pricing-idUSL3N0OC0M820140526[/url] ([url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/26/china-gold-pricing-idUSL3N0OC0M820140526[/url])
SINGAPORE, May 27 (Reuters) - China has approached foreign banks and gold producers to participate in a global gold exchange in Shanghai, people familiar with the matter said, as the world's top producer and importer of the metal seeks greater influence over pricing.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) got the go ahead from the central bank last week to launch a global trading platform in the city's pilot free trade zone, a move that could challenge the dominance of New York and London in gold trade and pricing.
Beijing's plans to open up gold trading comes at a time when the benchmark price-setting process for precious metals is under scrutiny. Barclays Plc became the first bank to be fined over attempted manipulation of the 95-year-old benchmark London gold market daily "fix" last week.
State-backed SGE has asked bullion banks such as HSBC , Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Standard Bank, Standard Chartered and Bank of Nova Scotia to take part in the global trading platform, two people approached by the exchange said.
SGE, the world's biggest physical gold exchange, where domestic banks, miners and retailers buy and sell gold, could also open up the international platform to foreign brokerages and gold producers, they said.
"China wants to have more voice in gold prices," said Jiang Shu, an analyst with Industrial Bank, one of 12 banks allowed to import gold into China. "The international exchange is the first step towards gaining a say in gold pricing."
"If you don't allow foreign players to participate in your market actively, or do not push Chinese financial institutions to participate in the international market, then China's strong gold demand is only a number, not a power," he said.
HSBC and Standard Bank declined to comment, while the other banks and SGE were not immediately available for comment.
The global platform will first host spot physical contracts for gold and other precious metals, before aiming to launch derivatives down the line, said a third source who is directly involved in the launch of the international exchange.
"We are not just encouraging foreign banks but also producers and other entities," added the source.
China, the world's biggest buyer of raw materials from copper to coal, is pushing hard to establish pricing benchmarks for a number of commodities.
Gold, along with oil, could be among the first to be opened up to foreign players. The free trade zone in Shanghai is set to see international energy trading by hosting the country's first crude oil futures.
ASIAN VOICE
The Shanghai exchange is looking to launch three yuan-denominated physical gold contracts, of 100 grams, 1 kg and the bigger London good delivery bar weighing 12.5 kg, said another source who has received a draft prospectus from SGE.
Contract specifications for silver, platinum and palladium were also being discussed, though the sources said specifications and participants had not yet been finalized. The exchange is expected to be launched by the fourth quarter.
Even if China lures foreign players, the exchange would still need to see full convertibility of the yuan and enough liquidity on the exchange before it can be considered to operate on a par with other hubs.
Currently, the London gold "fix" is the benchmark for spot prices, while New York's COMEX contract sets the futures' benchmark. SGE prices are tracked to gauge Chinese demand as reflected in premiums or discounts to spot rates.
Earlier this year, China's ICBC - in conjunction with its acquisition target Standard Bank - indicated interest in buying Deutsche Bank's seat on the London gold fix but it is not interested anymore, sources previously told Reuters.
While physical demand has always provided underlying support to gold prices, speculative trade is what largely drives prices. With China's push for an international physical exchange, physical demand could begin to have a stronger influence.
China overtook India last year as the world's biggest gold importer and gold jewellery and investment demand was up about a third to a record 1,065.8 tonnes in 2013.
The influx of gold has made SGE the biggest physical exchange, with a turnover of 10,000 tonnes for its immediate and deferred delivery contracts, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange has the world's second-most traded gold futures contract, though trading is largely limited to the domestic market with volumes of about 41,176 tonnes last year, still well behind COMEX's 147,083 tonnes.
The SGE's international board and the main exchange could eventually be merged when the yuan is fully convertible, Albert Cheng, managing director of the World Gold Council's far east region, said.
"That would become a very important exchange in the world, and Shanghai will truly become one of the three international gold centres after New York and London," he said. "No doubt, the participation in the international market is the key effort of the SGE and the current administration." (Editing by Ed Davies)
QUESTION: Martin,
I’ve written you a few times and greatly appreciate the replies and posts on your blog. As I have mentioned before, I worked for a metals dealer that traded on margin and caught a substantial amount if heat for being a bear w silver at 50 and gold at 1900+. I shorted silver the day you called the turning point. Unfortunately, most brokers on the floor had no interest in reading your 90+ page reports at the time, to try to learn the truth.
If I weren’t turned into you by Mr 50,000 gold, both myself and my clients would have lost a substantial amount of money. Not to mention future income derived by maintaining the trust of my clients throughout these past few years, and I’m certain the income I have lost over the past few years will come back sevenfold.
My question tonight is regarding financial privacy. Like you, I believe that high net worth investors should purchase gold, not for financial gain, but to hold assets out of the spying eyes of the gvmt. Like you, I also believe that we are heading towards digital currency (Israel is taking the reigns from what I have read) and negative nominal interest rates. Once the digital currency hits the shores of the USAA in full force, how does one liquidate their gold holdings in a private manner? Will the have to smuggle metal out if the country to be paid in cash? Will there be a black market for hard cash in the states? Ultimately, how does gold help protect folks from an out of control government?
Any advise is greatly appreciated.
Best wishes,
R
ANSWER: Let me begin by making it very clear that I do not read what other people write. Not that I do not respect other’s opinions, it is just that I have no time. Secondly, opinion does not mean much, even my own. Nobody’s opinion can be always right. My comments about $50,000 gold were not based on Jim Dines nor any reference regarding growing tired of pontificating by people who have zero experience. I would never engage in name-calling or other personal attacks. Lowering yourself to that level demonstrates you have nothing left to argue with and are in fact just hot air. Any reference was made in general to numerous people who pontificate with zero experience (new-comers) who have the audacity to pretend they know what really goes on by osmosis. I was referring to people’s comments that come in expressed in emails with no particular person even named just coughed in question. This is not a personal game to me. I do not need money so I do not have to bullshit to get readers to sell them something or to prove a point to anyone. Nobody will ever have 100% of any market so why bother? Everyone would never follow a single “opinion” for that is against human nature. If I said the sky is blue, someone will disagree and say it is dark blue and therefore I am wrong so do not listen to anything else I have to say. That is the essence of communism – denial of freedom of speech. If I wanted to kiss-ass, so to speak, I would run for politics. NO THANKS! I have no interest in singling people out to disagree with. We all have opinions. Besides, opinions are never consistent and forecasting the future based upon opinion is a fool’s game. Those who close their mind because of bias or “married to some idea” be it one-world government, dark conspiracies, only block themselves from advancing in knowledge. They know everything, ridicule anything that disagrees with their beliefs, and are thus incapable of ever advancing in life destined to die as ignorant as they came in. I enjoy this field because I continue to learn nuances every day for as much as you think you have seen everything, they is always something new around the next corner.
That said; I received emails about others saying that number $50,000 gold – not Dines.Perhaps they plagiarized him – I do not know who was first. As I have said, $50,000 is not a real gold target, that would be assumption that the dollar decline placing such a move in the realm of currency inflation. For that to take place you must see a like advance in everything else, real estate, wages etc.. The maximum price projection for 2032 seems to be the $22,000 to $24,000 dollar level.
That aside, gold is not an “institutional” investment for it offers only costs and risks to hold producing no income for cash flow. Gold is purely a retail product. It cannot get off the ground institutionally.
US$20Gold-pile
For the individuals it is one way to get off the grid, although they do track who is buying and how much. You cannot hop on a plane anymore and carrying a brief case full of gold bullion will only justify its confiscation. We have to be concerned about our financial privacy, which the government has converted to a crime of “money laundering” that amounts to just hiding money from their reach. True, high net worth investors should purchase gold, not for financial gain, but as the hedge against government, which it appears we may need in the years ahead. We are headed into negative interest rates and a new world of digital currency for then nothing will be private. Those who think they can create their own currency – good luck. Ain’t gonna happen. It is government that has the tanks – not the Rothchilds.
The digital currency will come AFTER 2015.75. Those who thought they were clever and think they can make tax-free income in Bitcoin, all I have to say is – been there done that. There were tax straddles that allowed people to push income from one year to the next using futures. They were sold by the major brokerage houses in the late 1970s. The IRS allows such schemes to progress, then hits them with huge interest, penalties, and sometimes criminal prosecutions. If anyone thinks they can use Bitcoin tax-free – good luck. You are probably destined for real tax-free living at the closes Federal prison. Don’t worry, like Motel 6 – they will keep the light on for ya.
“How does one liquidate their gold holdings in a private manner?” Good luck. The French went after coins shows requiring that they report all attendees. The shows no longer go to Paris. The coin and bullion dealers were by law in France barred from dealing in cash. The French started to travel to Belgium to buy and sell gold. The French complained to Belgium and hence we now have coordinated G20 level monitoring. So gold may no longer provide the easy way to facilitate life as it once did. It will depend upon someone taking it in barter and to understand that possibility, you have to use coins – not bars.
“Will the have to smuggle metal out if the country to be paid in cash?” There comes the metal detectors and Xrays. Then just traveling with more than even $3,000 is a presumption of guilt and they get to just seize it. Perhaps now you are starting to get a feel for why the NSA really monitors everything.
([url]http://i1.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/1907-20-Gold-Coins.jpg?resize=584%2C396[/url])
“Will there be a black market for hard cash in the states? Ultimately, how does gold help protect folks from an out of control government?” Gold may still be viable outside of the major cities the further you get off the grid. However, keep in mind that absent moving too far into a Dark Age where even gold loses all value, such a period historically tends to last 3.5 to 6 years max. Dark Ages you multiply that by 100.
1907 $20 Gold Coins
This is why I recommend collector’s coins dated prior to 1947. Regular common date $20 gold pieces are probably best. They were not confiscated only because Teddy Roosevelt had been an ancient coin collector. That will lend a bit more cover rather than pure bullion. You can always argue its your coin collection – not bullion. Depends upon the judge.
([url]http://i0.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Gold-Jewelry.jpg?resize=584%2C527[/url])
Gold-Jewelry
You can also place gold in jewelry as in ancient times. There are Ancient Egyptian pieces. I support I could ask the jeweler who makes the coins for us what it would be to create 24k bracelets like this for those really looking hard. I have no idea. But this would get by most TSA people.
This is why I recommend collector’s coins dated prior to 1947. Regular common date $20 gold pieces are probably best. They were not confiscated only because Teddy Roosevelt had been an ancient coin collector. That will lend a bit more cover rather than pure bullion. You can always argue its your coin collection – not bullion. Depends upon the judge.
Wall Street concerned over China's gold hoarding
Huang Shu-rong and Staff Reporter
2014-06-02 09:21 (GMT+8)
[url]http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1203&MainCatID=12&id=20140602000001[/url] ([url]http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1203&MainCatID=12&id=20140602000001[/url])
The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, is the world's biggest gold hoarder and the bane of Wall Street traders, reports the Chinese-language financial news website BwChinese, citing a Hong Kong financial analyst.
Leung Hai-ming told the portal that China's central bank took advantage of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program in 2013, when the price of gold fell by 27%. The bank bought in over 1,000 tonnes of gold, representing almost one third of the world's 3,756 tonnes last year.
There is reportedly less than 180,000 tonnes of gold reserves left, and only 20% of that remaining gold is tradable. This means that the People's Bank of China will likely keep hold of the gold, limiting the gold trading volume — a concern for both the US government and Wall Street traders.
Leung said that the US Federal Reserve loans gold to investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and others every year to trade in the market. The amount of gold ranges between 400-500 tonnes and the move acts to artificially suppress gold prices. When the prices are in their favor, these investment banks buy back the gold and return it to the Fed.
But this measure is absolutely useless because China's is hoarding the gold and does not follow the rules, Leung said. When it sees that gold prices are going down, the first thing it does is buy them, and does not sell when prices continue to fall. It seems that Wall Street cannot do anything to counter China on this, according to Leung.
The analyst said that the People's Bank of China is putting pressure on Washington and Wall Street as the US dollar has been linked with gold prices since its rise as the leading global currency. The Fed hopes to manipulate gold prices in its favor, Leung said, but the Chinese central bank is standing in its way.
Todo aquele, pois, que ouve estas palavras e as pratica, será comparado a um homem prudente, que edificou a sua casa sobre a rocha; e caiu a chuva, transbordaram os rios, sopraram os ventos e deram com ímpeto contra aquela casa, que não caiu, porque fora edificada sobre a rocha. E todo aquele que ouve estas minhas palavras e não as pratica, será comparado a um homem insensato, que edificou a sua casa sobre a areia; e caiu a chuva, transbordaram os rios, sopraram os ventos e deram com ímpeto contra aquela casa, e ela desabou, sendo grande a sua ruína.
Os fariseus se retiraram e fizeram um plano para apanhar Jesus em alguma palavra. Então mandaram os seus discípulos, junto com alguns partidários de Herodes, para dizerem a Jesus: «Mestre, sabemos que tu és verdadeiro, e que ensinas de fato o caminho de Deus. Tu não dás preferência a ninguém, porque não levas em conta as aparências. Dize-nos, então, o que pensas: "É lícito ou não é, pagar imposto a César?» Jesus percebeu a maldade deles, e disse: «Hipócritas! Por que vocês me tentam? Mostrem-me a moeda do imposto.» Levaram, então, a ele a moeda. E Jesus perguntou: «De quem é a figura e inscrição nesta moeda?» Eles responderam: «É de César.» Então Jesus disse: «Pois dêem a César o que é de César, e a Deus o que é de Deus.» Ouvindo isso, eles ficaram admirados. Deixaram Jesus e foram embora.
daqui e ate ao final do ano devemos ter uma boa subida no ouro e GDXJ
daqui e ate ao final do ano devemos ter uma boa subida no ouro e GDXJ
A paragem do QE pode prejudicar isso, por via da valorização do dolar?
daqui e ate ao final do ano devemos ter uma boa subida no ouro e GDXJ
A paragem do QE pode prejudicar isso, por via da valorização do dolar?
cuidado com os 1240
eu vejo assim:
aqui é uma base de range de m.p., se vires ali no grafico, vês a sma q eu uso para marcar mids (90sma), a meio do range e vê-se bem mercado lateral.
aqui na minha opinião não é zona de shortar, shortam-se topos de ranges ou qd muito mids, não se shortam bases. os meus ultimos shorts foram onde coloquei as setinhas, um na quebra dos 1310 e mais um qd testou o mid, como na altura disse ali no topico dos breaks, já estão fechados.
isto não quer dizer q ele não parta esta base e vá por ali abaixo, isso já não sei, mas para aproveitar isso era ter entrado mais acima, aqui já é mt perigoso.
é uma questão de regras, esta penso ser das mais importantes, não shortar bases. nem comprar topos, claro:)
Algum etf do ouro que se possa negociar cá euros?
Algum etf do ouro que se possa negociar cá euros?
Algum etf do ouro que se possa negociar cá euros?
Pode ser que ajude ...
[url]http://advisorshares.com/fund/geur[/url] ([url]http://advisorshares.com/fund/geur[/url])
Algum etf do ouro que se possa negociar cá euros?
Pode ser que ajude ...
[url]http://advisorshares.com/fund/geur[/url] ([url]http://advisorshares.com/fund/geur[/url])
Tks, é isso mesmo mas liquidez nem ve-la hummmm :-\
Europa ;)
50 tonne gold smuggled into India in 10 days, 30% reached Mumbai
By Manish Pachouly
Mumbai, September 23, 2014
[url]http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mumbai/50-tonne-gold-smuggled-into-india-in-10-days-30-reached-mumbai/article1-1267634.aspx[/url] ([url]http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mumbai/50-tonne-gold-smuggled-into-india-in-10-days-30-reached-mumbai/article1-1267634.aspx[/url])
About 50 tonnes of gold has been smuggled into the country in the past 10 days, and subsequently taken into the market to cater to a surge in demand for the precious metal in the festive season. There is a heavy demand for gold during Dussehra, for which booking and supply will start from Thursday, when shradh ends and Navratri starts.
Market sources said that 30% of the smuggled gold has been supplied in Mumbai to unscrupulous jewelers, while the rest was distributed to different parts of the country.
Sources said that illegal gold is finding a place in the market because of below average imports resulting from the 80:20 scheme and 10% import duty. Against the average monthly demand of 80 tonnes, the import is presently around 51 tonnes in the country.
Sources said that gold was smuggled into the country through the land route, via Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Pakistan. “This is because airports have tightened security, restricting the smuggling of gold by the air route,” said a market expert. The Mumbai airport customs, which has started a serious crackdown on gold smugglers, has seized around 529 kg gold from April to August this financial year.
Experts fear that more gold will be smuggled from similar land routes in days to come, as the demand will shoot up once the marriage season begins, in the later part of November. “There will be huge demand because of the festive season, and also the low price at which gold is presently being traded,” said Kumar Jain, vice-president of Mumbai Jewelers' Association.
Jain said, “The government should immediately bring down the import duty and relax the 80:20 scheme, so that official import goes up. That will bring down the smuggling.”
Rajiv Popley, director Popley Group, said, “Smuggling of gold has been on the rise for the last eight months, due to irrational supply issues. The officially available gold was at a premium, which was higher than anywhere else in the world.”
Comprei hoje Gold Fields (GFI) a 3.30. Já subiu 5% desde 6ª feira. Aí atingiu mínimos.
O problema é que o ouro está a descer, porque se prevê uma subida do dólar ainda maior do que até agora. Por isso há hoje uma série de artigos a preverem um colapso da cotação do ouro. Vamos lá ver.
E hoje melhor que ontemComprei hoje Gold Fields (GFI) a 3.30. Já subiu 5% desde 6ª feira. Aí atingiu mínimos.
O problema é que o ouro está a descer, porque se prevê uma subida do dólar ainda maior do que até agora. Por isso há hoje uma série de artigos a preverem um colapso da cotação do ouro. Vamos lá ver.
Hoje teria sido um dia melhor para comprar...
[ ]
Já vi que, mesmo que desça 10% depois de eu ter comprado, convém manter.
[ ]
Já vi que, mesmo que desça 10% depois de eu ter comprado, convém manter.
Num livro que li há muitos anos,
os <stop loss> recomendavam-se a 15%.
Será que o referendo no próximo dia 30 na suíça irá ter alguma influencia na cotação do ouro?
Será que o referendo no próximo dia 30 na suíça irá ter alguma influencia na cotação do ouro?
Sobre o que é o referendo?
Depósito Indexado, denominado em Euros, pelo prazo de 6 meses (179 dias), não mobilizável
antecipadamente.
A remuneração, paga no vencimento, depende da evolução da cotação do Ouro em USD e será de:
• 1,50% sobre o montante depositado (Taxa Anual Nominal Bruta (TANB) de 3,02%), se na Data de
Observação Final a cotação do Ouro em USD estiver mais de 5% acima da cotação inicial;
• 0% (0% TANB), nas restantes situações.
https://www.bigonline.pt/pdf/pestruturados/CGVO6M1_info.pdf (https://www.bigonline.pt/pdf/pestruturados/CGVO6M1_info.pdf)
Os estruturados dos bancos costumam ser maus mas este do BIG é mesmo horrível...Um verdadeiro Gestor de Cliente o nosso camarada Automek !CitarDepósito Indexado, denominado em Euros, pelo prazo de 6 meses (179 dias), não mobilizável
antecipadamente.
A remuneração, paga no vencimento, depende da evolução da cotação do Ouro em USD e será de:
• 1,50% sobre o montante depositado (Taxa Anual Nominal Bruta (TANB) de 3,02%), se na Data de
Observação Final a cotação do Ouro em USD estiver mais de 5% acima da cotação inicial;
• 0% (0% TANB), nas restantes situações.
https://www.bigonline.pt/pdf/pestruturados/CGVO6M1_info.pdf (https://www.bigonline.pt/pdf/pestruturados/CGVO6M1_info.pdf)
O capital é garantido, mas é preciso que o ouro suba 5% em 6 meses para receber uma remuneração de 1.5% (TANB de 3%).
Enfim, só isso rende um simples certificado de aforro a 6 meses, sem estar dependente de valorização nenhuma. Mas se se quiser replicar o produto:
O GLD fechou sexta feira a 114.47.
Com +5% seriam 120.19
As calls de 115 estão a 1.12
Ora um gajo que queira copiar o produto com 10K euros mete 10.000/1.015=9.852€ em certificados de aforro, o que garante o capital de 10K ao fim de 6 meses.
Com os restantes 148 compra 1 call de 115 por 112 e ainda sobram 33.
Se aquilo valorizar os 5% até 120 a call valerá 500€, o que dá os 5% inteirinhos e não apenas os 1.5% que o BIG quer pagar
Além disso, mesmo que valorize menos de 5% também ganha alguma coisa, coisa que no BIG não acontece, e se valorizar mais do que 5%, isso nem se fala.
As margens dos estruturados costumam ser altas mas desta vez parece-me que abusaram.
(estou a assumir aqui que Portugal não vai pelo cano nos próximos 6 meses e que os certificados de aforro vão ser pagos, claro)
Vendida, ganho de 9%, que teria sido >> se tivesse sido comprada no mínimo.
Mas, mesmo assim, foi um belo tiro. A GFI teve uma brutal outperformance em relação ao ouro.
Já agora, porque é que optaste pela GFI e não pelo 'puro' GLD (eu acho que te perguntei isto na altura mas não consigo encontrar os posts)
Não foi por nenhuma razão especial. Parecia-me que devia comprar qualquer coisa que mexesse com a subida do ouro, e era melhor um fundo de acções mineiras. Claro que há outros ETFs do género.Mas a GFI não é a Gold Fields ? Isso é uma empresa e não um fundo, certo ?
Na NYSE aparece como ADR, não como ETF.
What Is Happening With Gold: Russian Economist Mikhail Khazin - Of Volatility and Collars
By Jesse
On 12 December 2014
[url]http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/2014/12/comments-on-gold-from-russian-economist.html[/url] ([url]http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/2014/12/comments-on-gold-from-russian-economist.html[/url])
There are some interesting observations contained in this excerpt of a recent interview with Russian economist Mikhail Khazin. He is not speaking on behalf of the Russian government, so we must take his opinions as we may from a private individual observing things from a different corner of the world.
Here is a bio ([url]http://neoeconomica.com/mikhail-khazin/[/url]) of Mr. Khazin.
I found some particular interest in his views on the price of gold, and the approach of Russia and China in buying physical gold on the world markets, without attempting to break the leverage of the paper gold markets directly.
This would of course lead to increasing volatility in the price of precious metals until a market break provides the opportunity for the paper and physical market to converge. Mr. Khazin believe this will be triggered by the bursting of the next financial bubble.
Whether this scenario should actually come about is a matter of some speculation. I do not know what Russia and China will do, and how the West might respond. So we should look carefully at the accumulation of gold by Russia and China, and the general buying patterns of other central banks as well.
One might expect the speculative exchanges to take some steps to protect themselves from increasing volatility, such as establishing trading collars or limits, in the price of gold and silver. Oh my ([url]http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6443/comex-institutes-trading-collars-precious-metals[/url]).
This is just a brief portion of an interview covering a number of topics. You may read the entire interview here ([url]http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/11/mikhail-khazin-q-with-saker-community.html[/url]).
Citar"It had been clear to many economists for a long time that the role of gold in the world will grow and, most likely, will return to its position as a single measure of value. In particular, we wrote about the current crisis back in 2004 in our book The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of the Pax Americana. There's a whole chapter devoted to the role of gold and its manipulation.
However, Russian economic leaders close to the IMF ignored this position at the time. This only began to change in the last couple of years. China has been serious about gold for almost the entire last decade and is now actively preparing for a potential transition to a 'gold standard,' at least in economic relations between the so-called 'currency zones' which, in our opinion, will emerge after the single world dollar system falls apart.
But Russia and China cannot stop these manipulations, because the price of paper gold is determined on the speculative dollar markets. They can’t provide 'leverage' that would be comparable to that of major U.S. banks that have access to an unlimited issuing resource. The only thing they can do is increase the gap between the price of 'paper' and 'physical' gold by constantly buying the latter on the world markets.
Of course, this increases the instability in the global gold market and creates potential losses for the main 'gold dealers' who work with the Federal Reserve on leasing programs, but the degree of imbalances has not reached a critical value yet. It seems to me that the sharp rise in gold prices will start after the burst of the next 'bubble' in the US stock market.
With regard to the potential price of gold, as I wrote back in the early 2000's, it is determined by a 'fork,' the lower limit of which is the gold price in 1980, when it had its local peak after the dollar was decoupled from gold (USA default) in August 1971, and the upper limit of which is the purchasing power of the dollar in the early twentieth century, when gold was actual money. Today this 'fork' (in current dollars) is seen somewhere at the level of $ 4,500 - $ 15,000 per Troy ounce."
Wikileaks 1976: PBOC Focussed On Gold & SDR’s
Another piece of the puzzle.
By Koos Jansen
On 12 Jan 2015
[url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/wikileaks-1976-pboc-particularly-interested-in-gold-sdrs/[/url] ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/wikileaks-1976-pboc-particularly-interested-in-gold-sdrs/[/url])
The next Wikileaks cable is a summary of a meeting that took place in October 1976 between, among others, chairman of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns, and a delegation of Chinese bankers from the PBOC. For the record, this was five years after Nixon suspended US dollar convertibility into gold and one month after Mao Zedong past away.
Most notably the Chinese stated they see inflation as economic weakness and particularly expressed their interest in IMF gold auctions and the issuance of SDR’s. Sounds to me the PBOC was particularly not very enthusiastic about the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency in 1976.
Inflation in China has not been close to zero since 1976, nor did they adopt a form of gold standard in the seventies. However, this can all have been according to plan. If China had any ambitions in the late seventies to move away from the dollar and become an economic powerhouse, perhaps they decided it was best to first grow and develop within the existing system before making a change, because this is exactly what happened:
China’s communist economy started to open in the late seventies when Deng Xiaoping ruled the country and implemented the socialist economy; combining the Party’s socialist ideology with a pragmatic adoption of market economic practices. In recent decades China has been the growth wonder of the world making them currently the second largest economy right after the US. In 2002 China reformed its gold market ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/the-chinese-governements-gold-policy-from-the-horses-mouth/[/url]) and ever since is effectively stimulating its citizens ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/building-a-strong-economic-and-financial-security-barrier-for-china/[/url]) to save in physical gold, making the People’s Republic the largest gold producer and consumer on earth. Additionally, China is openly calling for replacing the US dollar ([url]http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-10/13/c_132794246.htm[/url]) as the world reserve currency. Did this all adventitiously happen or was it carefully planned many years ago?
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21464;image[/url])
Nixon and Deng XiaopingCarter, Nixon and Deng Xiaoping
In Mao’s era, from 1949 until 1976, Chinese yearly domestic gold mine production increased 261 %, from 1976 until present production increased 2,964 %.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21465;image[/url])
In 1977 for the first time China disclosed their official gold reserves at 395 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Since then there have been three increases; 105 tonnes in 2001 (to 500 tonnes), 100 tonnes in 2003 (from 500 to 600) and 454 tonnes in 2009 (from 600 to 1,054 tonnes). Given the fact the PBOC is not buying such amounts in one month, but more likely spread over the years, my assumption is that the official amount disclosed by the PBOC reflects more about China’s political strategy than tonnes in reserve. China claims to have 1,054 tonnes currently, though there is overwhelming evidence they have substantially more in official reserves.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21467;image[/url])
From Wikileaks: ([url]https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1976PEKING02229_b.html[/url])
1. SUMMARY: CALL OF CHAIRMAN BURNS ON PU MING, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA AND LIN CHI-HSIN, DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF THE BANK OF CHINA COVERED A WIDE VARIETY OF AMERICAN, CHINESE, AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MATTERS IN THREE-HOUR MEETING. POLITICAL QUESTIONS AND SINO-US BILATERAL RELATIONS DID NOT COME UP. CHINESE EVIDENTLY WERE VERY PLEASED WITH DISCUSSIONS, WHICH USLO CONSIDERS A SUCCESSFUL INTRODUCTION OF US AND PRC CENTRAL BANKING LEADERS.
2. CHAIRMAN BURNS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ACCOMPANIED BY NORMAN BERNARD OF THE FED. AND USLO OFFICER, CALLED OCTOBER 11 ON PU MING (0592/2494), DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, LIN CHI-HSIN (2651/1015/9387), DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF THE BANK OF CHINA, LIU PEN-KUN (0491/2609/2492), DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE BANKING DEPARTMENT OF THE BANK OF CHINA, AND TWO NOTETAKERS. THE MEETING LASTED THREE HOURS, AND ALL FOUR OF THE CHINESE MENTIONED ABOVE TOOK PART, LIU, SERVING AS INTERPRETER, BUT SOMETIMES DISCUSSING THE QUESTION BEFORE HE TRANSLATED IT.
3. THE CHINESE ASKED A VARIETY OF QUESTIONS ON THE CONDITION OF THE US ECONOMY, INCLUDING INTEREST RATES, LOANS, THE STATE OF THE RECOVERY OF THE ECONOMY, HOUSING STARTS, UTILIZATION OF CAPITAL, AND THE RATE OF INFLATION AND THE INCREASE IN THE MONEY SUPPLY. THE CHINESE WERE WELL INFORMED ON THE US ECONOMY, AND APPARENTLY HAD DISCUSSED THEIR QUESTIONS BEFORE THE MEETING. THEY WERE OBVIOUSLY PLEASED WITH THE FRANK AND STRAIGHT ANSWERS GIVEN THEM.
4. IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, THE DISCUSSION CONSISTED MAINLY OF QUESTIONS BY THE CHINESE AND ANSWERS BY DR. BURNS, ALTHOUGH THE CHINESE VIEW THAT INFLATION IS A SYMPTOM OF ECONOMIC WEAKNESS CAME THROUGH CLEARLY. THE CHINESE ASKED ABOUT DR. BURNS’ VIEWS OF THE IMF CONFERENCE AND WERE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE IMF GOLD AUCTIONS, AND THE ISSUANCE OF SDR’S. THE CHINESE ASKED ABOUT THE PROBLEM OF CONTROLLING THE $200 BILLION IN EURODOLLARS, AND GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THEY CONSIDERED THE EURODOLLAR MARKET A THREAT TO EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY, WHICH BY IMPLICATION THEY SEEMED TO FAVOR. THEY ALSO ASKED ABOUT COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES AMONG THE OECD COUNTRIES. AGAIN, THE CHINESE BANKERS WERE WELL INFORMED AND HAD THEIR QUESTIONS WELL PREPARED.
5. DR. BURNS ASKED A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS ABOUT CHINESE FINANCING. IN THEIR REPLY ON HOW THE PRC FIXES EXCHANGE RATES, THE CHINESE WERE OBVIOUSLY DODGING, BUT CONFIRMED THAT THE RMB, AS A STABLE CURRENCY, TENDS TO FOLLOW THE STRONG CURRENCIES, SUCH AS THE DEUTSCHE MARK, AND PAYS CLOSE ATTENTION TO IMPORTANT CHINESE TRADING CURRENCIES SUCH AS THE YEN. MR. PU OUTLINED THE WORKING OF THE CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM, NOTING THE DIVISION OF LABOR BETWEEN THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA (THE CENTRAL BANK), THE BANK OF CHINA (FOREIGN EXCHANGE BANK), AND THE PEOPLE’S CONSTRUCTION BANK (INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION BANK). THERE IS NO BANK OF AGRICULTURE NOW FUNCTIONING. MR. PU’S STATEMENTS CONFIRMED THAT CHINESE MONETARY POLICIES ARE VERY RESTRICTIVE, WITH ALL BUDGETS AT A BALANCE OR WITH A SLIGHT SURPLUS, AND THE ISSUANCE OF EACH NEW RMB BACKED BY EIGHT RMB IN COMMODITIES. HE SAID THAT MONEY SUPPLY IN CHINA MEANS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE PAYMENTS BY CHECK FROM ONE ENTERPRISE TO ANOTHER.
6. NO POLITICAL SUBJECTS OR BILATERAL US-PRC QUESTIONS CAME UP IN THE DISCUSSIONS. THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO POLITICS WAS MR. PU’S FAREWELL REMARK THAT HE WAS SURE THAT NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS WOULD GIVE AN EVEN GREATER IMPETUS TO EXCHANGES OF VIEWS BETWEEN THE US AND CHINESE CENTRAL BANKS.
7. THE CHINESE BANKERS WERE EVIDENTLY PLEASED WITH THE VISIT, AS THE THREE HOURS OF CONVERSATION AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA AND THE BANK OF CHINA WERE REPRESENTED SHOW. THE MEETING WAS CORDIAL THROUGHOUT, AND DR. BURNS’ FRANK AND INFORMATIVE ANSWERS WERE MUCH APPRECIATED. USLO CONSIDERS THAT DR. BURNS’ VISIT WAS A SUCCESSFUL INTRODUCTION OF TOP US AND CHINESE CENTRAL BANKERS.
Previously posted historic documents:
1971, October 28. Phone call between Nixon and Kissinger on gold ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/the-end-of-bretton-woods-and-the-race-to-the-bottom-1971/[/url])
1971, December 13 & 14, Azores. Negotiations between Kissinger and Pompidou about the value of currencies and gold ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/the-end-of-bretton-woods-and-the-race-to-the-bottom-1971/[/url])
1973, May 18, Paris, France. Meeting Kissinger And Pompidou on value of gold ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/can-pretend-forever-gold-worth-42-22/[/url])
1974, March 6, Washington, US. Note From the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Finance and Development (Weintraub) to the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs (Volcker): GOLD AND THE MONETARY SYSTEM: POTENTIAL US–EU CONFLICT ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/gold-and-the-monetary-system-potential-us-eu-conflict-1974/[/url])
1974, April 22 & 23, Zeist, The Netherlands. Meeting European Ministers Of Finance On Gold ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/1974-meeting-european-ministers-of-finance-on-gold/[/url])
1974, April 25. Minutes of Secretary of State Kissinger’s Principals and Regionals Staff Meeting on gold ([url]https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/minutes-of-kissinger-meeting-on-gold-1974/[/url])
Koos Jansen
Germany's Bundesbank Resumes Gold Repatriation; Transfers 120 Tonnes Of Physical Gold From Paris And NY Fed
By Tyler Durden
On 01/19/2015
[url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/bundesbank-resumes-gold-repatriation-transfers-120-tonnes-physical-gold-paris-and-ny[/url] ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/bundesbank-resumes-gold-repatriation-transfers-120-tonnes-physical-gold-paris-and-ny[/url])
Three weeks ago, when looking at the latest NY Fed data of foreign gold held at the largest central bank gold vault in the world, we showed that in the month of November not only was a near record amount of gold withdrawn from the NY Fed, which at 42 tons was the single biggest monthly outflow at the NY Fed in over a decade...
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21468;image[/url])
... but that though the end of November, all of the Netherlands' 122 tons of gold withdrawals had been fully accounted for. This brought up an interesting question:Citar
"... net of the Netherlands withdrawals, there is some 44 tons of extra gold that has been also quietly redeemed (by another entity). The question is who: is it now the turn of Austria to reveal in a few weeks that it too, secretly, withdrew some 40+ tons of gold from "safe keeping" in the US? Or was it Belgium? Or did the Dutch simply decide to haul back some more. Or did Germany finally get over its "logistical complications" which prevented it from transporting more than just a laughable 5 tons in 2013? And most importantly, did Germany finally grow a pair and decide not to let "diplomatic difficulties" ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/real-reason-why-germany-halted-its-gold-repatriation-ny-fed[/url]) stand between it and its gold?
We now know the answer, and it was, indeed, the latter with confirmation coming from the Bundesbank itself. As the German Central Bank announced earlier today, after withdrawing an embarrassing 5 tonnes of gold from New York in 2013, its rate of repatriation soared, and in what appears to have been just the past two months, has transferred a whopping 85 tonnes of gold from 80 feet below street level at Liberty 33 back to Frankfurt!
From Buba ([url]http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Pressemitteilungen/BBK/2015/2015_01_19_continues_transfers_of_gold.html?startpageId=Startseite-EN&startpageAreaId=Teaserbereich&startpageLinkName=2015_01_19_continues_transfers_of_gold+327534[/url]):CitarThe Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold last year. In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. "Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard, today's internationally recognised standard. "We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities," said Mr Thiele.
According to its new gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank will be storing half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults from 2020 onwards. This necessitates a phased transfer to Frankfurt am Main of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris.
Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bank has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt am Main - 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York. This is equivalent to roughly 23% of the total quantity to be transferred. The following table gives an overview of the gold that has been transferred to date.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21470;image[/url])
As at 31 December 2014, the Bundesbank's gold reserves were stored at the following locations.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21471;image[/url])
And the punchline:CitarThe Bundesbank assures the identity and authenticity of German gold reserves throughout the transfer process - from when they are removed from warehouses abroad until they are stored in Frankfurt am Main. As soon as the gold was removed from the warehouse locations abroad, Bundesbank employees cross-checked the lists of bars belonging to the Bundesbank against the information on the bars removed. Finally, once they arrived in Frankfurt am Main, all the transferred gold bars were thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified by the Bundesbank. When all the inspections had been concluded, no irregularities came to light with regard to the authenticity, fineness and weight of the bars.
A curious amount of precautions and safeguards when transporting the "safe" and "untainted" gold held at the NY Fed to Frankfurt. Almost as if the Bundesbank, gasp, did not trust the quality and content of the NY Fed-held gold, nor its well-meaning intentions.
Ironically, it was exactly one year ago that we wrote "Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One Year ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year[/url])" in which we wrote:CitarThe official explanation was as follows: "The Bundesbank explained [the low amount of US gold] by saying that the transports from Paris are simpler and therefore were able to start quickly." Additionally, the Bundesbank had the "support" of the BIS "which has organized more gold shifts already for other central banks and has appropriate experience - only after months of preparation and safety could transports start with truck and plane." That would be the same BIS that in 2011 lent out a record 632 tons ([url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/central-bank-gold-withdrawals-from-bis-most-in-at-least-8-years.html[/url]) of gold...
Welt goes on to "debunk" various "conspiracy websites" that the reason why the gold is being melted is not to cover up some shortage (and to scrap serial numbers), but that the gold is exactly the same gold as before. Finally, to silences all skeptics, the Bundesbank says that "there is no reason for complaint - the weight and purity of the gold bars were consistent with the books match." In conclusion, Welt reports that in 2014 "larger transport volumes" can be expected from New York: between 30 and 50 tons.
Welt was off by just 50% with the full 2014 repatriated amount hitting 85 tons in what appears to have been a year-end scramble following the Netherlands repatriation shocker. And, as it turns out, all it took for the Bundesbank to send its repatriation amounts surging is for the Dutch to show it how it is done: i.e., by plane because crossing the Atlantic with a Brinks' truck full of gold certainly presents some "logisitcal challenges."
Sarcasm aside, it is quite clear that "logistical difficulties" is merely a politically correct strawman. Recall the real reason for the paltry repatriation by Buba in 2013, as explained by Deutsche Bank two months ago ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/real-reason-why-germany-halted-its-gold-repatriation-ny-fed[/url]):Citar... the gold community paid great attention to the decision of the German Bundesbank to “bring German gold home”. At the beginning of 2013, the Bundesbank announced it would repatriate 300 tonnes of gold stored in the US by 2020. It is well behind schedule, citing logistical difficulties. Yet diplomatic difficulties are more likely to be the chief cause of the delay, especially seeing as the Bundesbank has proven its capacity to organise large-scale gold transports. In the early 2000s, the Bundesbank incrementally repatriated 930 tonnes of German gold held by the Bank of England.
Which leads us to the only relevant question: now that the "diplomatic difficulties" have been overcome and the Bundesbank is back on track to repatriating precisely the right amount of gold from the NY Fed to indicate that it has far less faith in the US central bank than it did when it was barely conducting any transfers in 2013, just how worse as the diplomatic difficulties now? We expect to get at least a partial answer on Thursday when Mario Draghi finally announces his long-overdue €500 billion QE program, with Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann, sitting quietly in a corner, and ignored by the ex-Goldman head of the ECB, contemplated just how much more, if not all, gold (there is still some 517 tonnes of gold left to be repatriated to Germany from NY and Paris) he should withdraw now in preparation for the "next steps"?
One thing is certain: Germany sends its kindest gratitude to Ukraine, whose gold, now long gone ([url]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/ukraine-admits-its-gold-gone[/url]), is most likely to be found in a far safer, and remelted, state somewhere in the bowels under Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße, number 14 in Frankfurt am Main.
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=21469;image[/url])
Uma dúvida se andam todos a comprar ouro porque é que isso não se nota no preço? Mais, segundo li aqui ([url]http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/12/allweather-fail/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter[/url]) se ajustar-mos a inflação ao preço do ouro, este atingiu o seu pico em 1980. Não é suposto que se alguns países voltarem ao padrão ouro que este valorize? E sendo o povo suiço tão lúcido e erudito porque é que vetou a reintrodução do padrão ouro?
Tenho ouro no meu portefólio, mas tenho a carteira toda em USD, e estou curioso para perceber quais as implicações destas movimentações na minha carteira...mas isso ninguém me deve saber responder :D
Arriscaria a prever que o ouro vai subir de novo. Talvez voltar ao recorde dos $1800 / onça. Isto porque se estão a acumular mais e mais sinais de perigo na economia mundial. Muitos artigos descrevem, e bem, vários cenários catastrofistas. Eu não sei se algum dos cenários se concretizará no curto prazo, nem qual a probabilidade deles, mas sei que cada um deles, se acontecer, tem o potencial de ser horrendo. Não é preciso muita imaginação para ver quais são. Euro, UE, deflacção, Rússia, Ucrânia, Médio Oriente, China hard landing, colapso dos emergentes, aquecimento global, guerra. You name it.
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
entao, nao ha goldbugs para debater isto ? :D
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
Para 2/3 da humanidade sim e isso para mim chega.
Eu tenho a mania que o governo dos usa consegue produzir ouro em reatores.
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
Para 2/3 da humanidade sim e isso para mim chega.
entao imagina que estas numa ilha isolada mas cheio de ouro, qual o valor intrinseco do ouro nessa ilha ?
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
Para 2/3 da humanidade sim e isso para mim chega.
entao imagina que estas numa ilha isolada mas cheio de ouro, qual o valor intrinseco do ouro nessa ilha ?
Tem o mesmo valor intrínseco de todos os outros investimentos disponíveis no mercado de capitais.
o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?
Para 2/3 da humanidade sim e isso para mim chega.
entao imagina que estas numa ilha isolada mas cheio de ouro, qual o valor intrinseco do ouro nessa ilha ?
Tem o mesmo valor intrínseco de todos os outros investimentos disponíveis no mercado de capitais.
mas o meu argumento eh que o ouro nao tem valor intrinseco, eh apenas uma moeda internacional que nao depende do estado
de resto eh praticamente igual, o seu valor depende de um mercado e sem mercado nao tem valor
agora vacas, isso sim tem valor intrinseco, vou comprar umas e levar para a ilha deserta
nao sei se percebi bem mas se depende do estado isso nao eh valor intrinseco
nao sei se percebi bem mas se depende do estado isso nao eh valor intrinseco
Eu tenho a mania que o governo dos usa consegue produzir ouro em reatores.
Eventualmente até conseguiria se quisesse, mas seria sempre anti-económico.
nao sei se percebi bem mas se depende do estado isso nao eh valor intrinseco
Acho que estas a entrar em contradição Neo . As coisas tem o valor que as pessoas estao dispostas a dar , o que resume um pouco o que disseste .
Vai ver o volume do ouro e ve la se nao ha malta a comprar agora em baixa...
tal como as moedas fiat o ouro retira o seu valor de construcoes sociais, a diferenca esta em que o ouro tem menos condicionalismos e portanto eh mais seguro que retenha algum valor em caso de colapso social
mas por ex num mundo apocaliptico sem grandes trocas comerciais o ouro nao teria grande valor, o ouro precisa sempre de um comercio minimamente desenvolvido para valer alguma coisa como moeda de troca, nao retem nenhum valor magico intrinseco em todas as situacoes
se o ouro tem valor intrinseco para voces entao as moedas fiat tb o tem necessariamente
Resumindo , a industria que envolve o Ouro nao tem expressão. Talvez um pouco redutor não ?
Outra questão , continuo a achar contraditorio , o Ouro nao tem valor instriseco ? entao neo se estas preocupado com a definição mais basica é que nao percebo mesmo.
O ouro nao gera fluxo monetario ? ----» explica um pouco melhor sff
acho que nao é comparavel com uma obrigação .
Os restantes argumentos penso que se podem aplicar aos restantes instrumentos , sabendo que tem caracteristicas diferentes.
Já agora para quem queira perder algum tempo e consultar o dito site que podera ser tendencioso.... , [url]http://www.gold.org/investment/how-invest-gold[/url] ([url]http://www.gold.org/investment/how-invest-gold[/url])
tal como as moedas fiat o ouro retira o seu valor de construcoes sociais, a diferenca esta em que o ouro tem menos condicionalismos e portanto eh mais seguro que retenha algum valor em caso de colapso social
mas por ex num mundo apocaliptico sem grandes trocas comerciais o ouro nao teria grande valor, o ouro precisa sempre de um comercio minimamente desenvolvido para valer alguma coisa como moeda de troca, nao retem nenhum valor magico intrinseco em todas as situacoes
se o ouro tem valor intrinseco para voces entao as moedas fiat tb o tem necessariamente
Epá boa....... num mundo apocalitptico em que nao vivemos nao tem ou tera grande valor e se calhar a agua ou algo que se possa comer , valera mais que Ouro.... sim claro , mas ai ha muita coisa com valor que deixar de ter ....
Acho que deixa de fazer sentido , para já.
Resumindo , a industria que envolve o Ouro nao tem expressão. Talvez um pouco redutor não ?
Outra questão , continuo a achar contraditorio , o Ouro nao tem valor instriseco ? entao neo se estas preocupado com a definição mais basica é que nao percebo mesmo.
O ouro nao gera fluxo monetario ? ----» explica um pouco melhor sff
acho que nao é comparavel com uma obrigação .
Os restantes argumentos penso que se podem aplicar aos restantes instrumentos , sabendo que tem caracteristicas diferentes.
Já agora para quem queira perder algum tempo e consultar o dito site que podera ser tendencioso.... , [url]http://www.gold.org/investment/how-invest-gold[/url] ([url]http://www.gold.org/investment/how-invest-gold[/url])
Não sei o que queres dizer por um pouco redutor. A procura com a qual podes contar é a não-especulativa. Tudo o resto é simplesmente acreditar que outra pessoa qualquer te retira a coisa das mãos e nisso não há certeza nenhuma. O valor intrínseco é derivado da certeza de que um dado valor pode ser alcançado independentemente daquilo que as outras pessoas pensem sobre o valor da coisa.
Numa obrigação uma estimativa de valor intrínseco é bastante sólida porque a obrigação paga juros e capital. A principal incerteza vai resultar apenas do risco de crédito do emitente.
Numa acção já é mais difícil a estimativa de valor intrínseco. Mas ainda pode existir, baseada nos lucros que a empresa gera e que ou aumentam o valor contabilístico ou resultam em dividendos.
Numa commodity, tudo aquilo em que te podes basear para ter alguma certeza, é que se a commodity passar muito tempo abaixo do seu custo marginal de produção, os produtores da mesma com custos mais elevados rebentam e saem do mercado. A produção cai, e o consumo da mesma, a menos que existam outros motivos, pelo menos mantêm-se. Pelo que em algum ponto, se a commodity cair muito, ela terá que voltar para cima até que o preço cubra os custos dos produtores necessários para abastecer o mercado-
E por aí adiante...
tal como as moedas fiat o ouro retira o seu valor de construcoes sociais, a diferenca esta em que o ouro tem menos condicionalismos e portanto eh mais seguro que retenha algum valor em caso de colapso social
mas por ex num mundo apocaliptico sem grandes trocas comerciais o ouro nao teria grande valor, o ouro precisa sempre de um comercio minimamente desenvolvido para valer alguma coisa como moeda de troca, nao retem nenhum valor magico intrinseco em todas as situacoes
se o ouro tem valor intrinseco para voces entao as moedas fiat tb o tem necessariamente
Epá boa....... num mundo apocalitptico em que nao vivemos nao tem ou tera grande valor e se calhar a agua ou algo que se possa comer , valera mais que Ouro.... sim claro , mas ai ha muita coisa com valor que deixar de ter ....
Acho que deixa de fazer sentido , para já.
nao deves estar a par mas os proponentes do ouro acham que o ouro eh algo de muito diferente e especial em relacao a uma moeda fiat
o que eu digo eh que nem por isso, eh apenas uma outra versao, mais solida, do mesmo
Não é um paradoxo. Um derivado tem um valor intrínseco dado pelo valor do subjacente (underlying). Mas isso não significa que o subjacente (o ouro), tenha um valor intrínseco.
O valor intrínseco do derivado vem precisamente de ser possível estabelecer uma arbitragem entre o valor do derivado e o do subjacente.
Não é um paradoxo. Um derivado tem um valor intrínseco dado pelo valor do subjacente (underlying). Mas isso não significa que o subjacente (o ouro), tenha um valor intrínseco.
O valor intrínseco do derivado vem precisamente de ser possível estabelecer uma arbitragem entre o valor do derivado e o do subjacente.
Não deixa de ser especulativo
Não é um paradoxo. Um derivado tem um valor intrínseco dado pelo valor do subjacente (underlying). Mas isso não significa que o subjacente (o ouro), tenha um valor intrínseco.
O valor intrínseco do derivado vem precisamente de ser possível estabelecer uma arbitragem entre o valor do derivado e o do subjacente.
Não deixa de ser especulativo
Não, esse valor intrínseco do derivado não tem puto de especulativo.
Imagina que o derivado te dá o direito a comprar ouro a $1000 e o ouro está a $1100. O derivado tem um valor intrínseco (e nada especulativo) de pelo menos $100 num tal cenário.
Não é um paradoxo. Um derivado tem um valor intrínseco dado pelo valor do subjacente (underlying). Mas isso não significa que o subjacente (o ouro), tenha um valor intrínseco.
O valor intrínseco do derivado vem precisamente de ser possível estabelecer uma arbitragem entre o valor do derivado e o do subjacente.
Não deixa de ser especulativo
Não, esse valor intrínseco do derivado não tem puto de especulativo.
Imagina que o derivado te dá o direito a comprar ouro a $1000 e o ouro está a $1100. O derivado tem um valor intrínseco (e nada especulativo) de pelo menos $100 num tal cenário.
Sim compreendo , mas o direito (valor inferior) tem como........ bem , nao sera uma referencia mas os 1100 serao especulativos. Mas tecnicamente (e realmente ) não tem de especulativo. Simplesmente uma forma de tambem contornar esse factor.
tal como as moedas fiat o ouro retira o seu valor de construcoes sociais, a diferenca esta em que o ouro tem menos condicionalismos e portanto eh mais seguro que retenha algum valor em caso de colapso social
mas por ex num mundo apocaliptico sem grandes trocas comerciais o ouro nao teria grande valor, o ouro precisa sempre de um comercio minimamente desenvolvido para valer alguma coisa como moeda de troca, nao retem nenhum valor magico intrinseco em todas as situacoes
se o ouro tem valor intrinseco para voces entao as moedas fiat tb o tem de ter necessariamente, pelo menos enquanto funcionarem
Não é um paradoxo. Um derivado tem um valor intrínseco dado pelo valor do subjacente (underlying). Mas isso não significa que o subjacente (o ouro), tenha um valor intrínseco.
O valor intrínseco do derivado vem precisamente de ser possível estabelecer uma arbitragem entre o valor do derivado e o do subjacente.
Não deixa de ser especulativo
Não, esse valor intrínseco do derivado não tem puto de especulativo.
Imagina que o derivado te dá o direito a comprar ouro a $1000 e o ouro está a $1100. O derivado tem um valor intrínseco (e nada especulativo) de pelo menos $100 num tal cenário.
Sim compreendo , mas o direito (valor inferior) tem como........ bem , nao sera uma referencia mas os 1100 serao especulativos. Mas tecnicamente (e realmente ) não tem de especulativo. Simplesmente uma forma de tambem contornar esse factor.
Não - os $1100 variam fortemente, e com eles varia também fortemente o valor intrínseco do derivado. Mas não deixa de existir esse valor intrínseco porque em qualquer momento poderá ser possível comprar o derivado, vender o subjacente curto, e fixar e usufruir do valor intrínseco que existe naquele momento, se o valor de mercado do derivado divergir desse valor intrínseco.
Portanto, o valor intrínseco do derivado não está dependente de as outras pessoas acharem que ele vale aquilo, vale menos ou vale mais. Essa é uma característica do valor intrínseco.
tal como as moedas fiat o ouro retira o seu valor de construcoes sociais, a diferenca esta em que o ouro tem menos condicionalismos e portanto eh mais seguro que retenha algum valor em caso de colapso social
mas por ex num mundo apocaliptico sem grandes trocas comerciais o ouro nao teria grande valor, o ouro precisa sempre de um comercio minimamente desenvolvido para valer alguma coisa como moeda de troca, nao retem nenhum valor magico intrinseco em todas as situacoes
se o ouro tem valor intrinseco para voces entao as moedas fiat tb o tem de ter necessariamente, pelo menos enquanto funcionarem
Que é irracional, é ... mas que é uma realidade que esse brilho amarelo enlouquece, também é verdade :)
Eu diria que é racional e já te expliquei porquê.Porque é que os nossos antepassados sempre valorizaram o ouro e as pedras preciosas se estas não produziam nada, nem serviam para nada mesmo, além de ficarem guardadas ? Seriam todos tão estúpidos que entregavam o trigo, o milho, o vinho, a vaca e os porcos em troca de um calhau ou de um pedaço de metal, que nem para fazer armas servia ?
O valor do ouro reside precisamente no não servir para nada.
É precisamente esse não servir para nada que é a pedra angular do conceito de dinheiro, pois é isso que o torna uma bolha auto-sustentada: -O dinheiro é a epítome das bolhas auto-sustentadas, pois é lhe atribuído um valor largamente superior ao da sua produção.
O mecanismo que torna o ouro uma bolha auto-sustentada é o não servir para nada, pois a dinâmica gerada por mais pessoas a atribuirem-lhe valor não é estourada por nenhuma das duas agulhas fura-bolhas:
- Aumento da produção, pois o ouro é estremamente difícil de se obter.
- O efeito de cair como uma pedra sempre que um uso industrial é priced out, pois os usos industriais são ínfimos.
Naturalmente que não foi por esta razão que a humanidade escolheu o ouro como reserva de valor, escolheram-no sim por que era belo, não se oxidava, ocupava pouco espaço [pesa como chumbo] e, acima de tudo, é ideal para ostentar, pois é relativamente raro e difícil de se obter mais [é por estas razões que há tb quem poupe em gritos de Thomas Munch], mas foi esta dinâmica do não servir para nada que impediu que ao longo da história da humanidade esta bolha estourasse, muito pelo contrário foi reforçando-a.Muito bem vista essa questão do não servir para nada o tornar um pouco menos vunerável a alguns mecanismos normais. Acrescentaria que também fica menos vulnerável aos ciclos dos usos industriais.
Já lá está: é a agulha fura-bolhas nº 2.
O ouro ainda tem umas ínfimas aplicações industriais, mas quase todas foram priced out pela sua melhor função: a de reserva de valor. E como sabemos, a função é que determina o valor.
Não vá ter escapado a mensagem. A auxência das duas agulhas fura-bolhas criaram um efeito de realimentação positiva ao longo da história da humanidade esculpindo na mente dos homens a noção do ouro ser a reserva última de valor.
mais vale comprar latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
O melhor era teres o atum em latas de ouro.
Era o chamado todo terreno ;D
Já leste a "Ação Humana " de Ludwig Von Mises
Já leste a "Ação Humana " de Ludwig Von Mises
Tu já leste!?
Que achaste?
Gostava bem de a ler
numa boa tradução, bem prefaciada,
em português de cá do país, fora
do aborto ortográfico.
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
Se investes em latas de atum, óptimo, pelo menos durante a validade do produto. Se não, vai trolar para outro lado. :D
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
O melhor era teres o atum em latas de ouro.
Era o chamado todo terreno ;D
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
Se investes em latas de atum, óptimo, pelo menos durante a validade do produto. Se não, vai trolar para outro lado. :D
tiro o chapeu aos goldbugs que comerem pedras amarelas qd o apocalipse chegar, nao deve ser facil
ja eu vou antes comer atum em lata... eh o melhor investimento, o mais robusto e flexivel.
mais vale deter latas de atum que ouro, mantem melhor o seu valor em todas as circunstancias :D
Se investes em latas de atum, óptimo, pelo menos durante a validade do produto. Se não, vai trolar para outro lado. :D
Latas de atum (ou enlatados em geral) pode ser boa ideia. Ano a ano vais renovando o stock. Por exemplo as latas de atum que tenho de momento tem data de validade 2018. :D
Eu na minha opinião, se é para ter uma visão apocalítica, prefiro comprar um bom terreno para poder plantar o básico e sobreviver. Se bem que se não houver estado, não sei como defendê-lo de um confisco de alguém fisicamente superior a mim. :-[
hermes, excelentes explicações sobre o valor do ouro.
tommy, desde que inventaram a pólvora só tens que te preocupar com ter munições suficientes, não com o tamanho dos adversários. Pelo contrário, adversários maiores são mais fáceis de atingir ... :D
(Pronto, convém diversificar os investimentos entre latas de atum e munições!)
hermes, excelentes explicações sobre o valor do ouro.
Sim. Mas não percebo bem é quando
o Hermes diz - suponho ter entendido
ser isso o que afirma - os bancos centrais
deverem emitir mais moeda quando as reservas
de ouro que detêm em stock se valorizam no mercado,
e presumo que vice-versa quando se desvalorizam...
Mas possivelmente não é o que ele diz; caso em que não percebi;
e se foi isso, também não percebo a conveniência ou inconveniência
de tal ajustamento pró-cíclico, como não perceberia se fosse anti-cíclico;
em suma, não percebo nada!
o que cai sobe
depois dum spike assim pode ser bom comprar o dip, pelo menos para accoes resulta :)
eu nao vou comprar mas estou curioso
range mais bem definido q este, é praticamente impossivel. tens aqui um range de curtissimo prazo maravilhosamente bem definido:)
sempre entrando do lado curto, ou seja e topo, claro. até prova em contrario
amanhã pela manha vou comprar um short... desta vez nao vou respeitar o boll... parece que vai mesmo para baixo... o problema é a resistencia forte que tem nos 1150... veremos no que dá
Last week Gold was very tricky compared to the other Dollar rivals. For example, the Euro and Crude oil are creeping up, while Gold did the opposite and squeezed out buyers. Yesterday, sellers couldn't escape either and got stopped out.
The price touched the downside for the second time and Gold shaped the Descending Triangle pattern which is highlighted in red. A breakout happened today above $1200. It means that we will watch the continuation of an uptrend (highlighted in blue). The target is calculated as a sum of the breakout and the height of the Triangle, which is located at $1246 area. It coincides with the hypothetical second touch point, charted as parallel lines. If price will manage to break above the uptrend, then the next area of interest for bulls is a previous medium term high located at $1307. It’s a nice target from a profit point of view.
Currently the level is $1211. The stop should be set both below today's low at $1199, and at the breakout point at $1200 (around $1195-1197).
The risk/reward ratio is approximately 1:2.2 ($1195 vs $1246) which is healthy enough. If we pray for $1307, then it will be huge, 1:6! Bon appetite my hungry sharks!
Quem ficou short em gold?
ШЭИ escreveu "O electrocardiograma de baixo é o ké?"
O Rui não deve ter visto ainda, pelo que a minha resposta poderá não ser totalmente correta, mas julgo que será o RSI 2 períodos.
Ando há dias em 5 Opções e de momento o profit e loss estão à frenteInverteu-se e saída agora mesmo.
MAY 22 '15 114 Call +410
MAY 22 '15 115 Put -330
vou ver o andamento até à próxima semana ou ainda fecho antes uma delas ou ambas.
Vamos ver... já estive para as fechar, mas depois decidi manter.
Hoje houve uma altura em que estive a perder.
Ando há dias em 5 Opções e de momento o profit e loss estão à frenteInverteu-se e saída agora mesmo.
MAY 22 '15 114 Call +410
MAY 22 '15 115 Put -330
vou ver o andamento até à próxima semana ou ainda fecho antes uma delas ou ambas.
Vamos ver... já estive para as fechar, mas depois decidi manter.
Hoje houve uma altura em que estive a perder.
MAY 22 '15 114 Call -600
MAY 22 '15 115 Put +625
Isto parece andar de lado e eu queria que se decidisse para um dos lados. Como parece que não, out.
Já agora, a conjugação do RSI(2) com a Tree line tem estado excelente e assim é de esperar nova vinda aos 1175... se o Dólar ajudar e resolver trepar!
se a semana fecha assim, deixa martelada no semanal, sim. ou falas de outro TF?
Sim +25.... enfim... esperava que fosse mais rápido para um dos lados e não foi :'(Ando há dias em 5 Opções e de momento o profit e loss estão à frenteInverteu-se e saída agora mesmo.
MAY 22 '15 114 Call +410
MAY 22 '15 115 Put -330
vou ver o andamento até à próxima semana ou ainda fecho antes uma delas ou ambas.
Vamos ver... já estive para as fechar, mas depois decidi manter.
Hoje houve uma altura em que estive a perder.
MAY 22 '15 114 Call -600
MAY 22 '15 115 Put +625
Isto parece andar de lado e eu queria que se decidisse para um dos lados. Como parece que não, out.
E com a saída, ficaste positivo em +25 ou negativo?
está tudo mt inspirado hoje:D
está tudo mt inspirado hoje:D
Mas vamos falando, ok?
está tudo mt inspirado hoje:D
Mas vamos falando, ok?
se calhar ajuda se mudares essa foto do teu avatar :D
Dinamarca quer acabar de vez com as notas e moedasParece que vai ser o oposto. A sua prisão.
País já lidera na utilização de formas de pagamento electrónico. As mudanças devem começar em 2016. 12-05-2015 17:48
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A Dinamarca quer ser o primeiro país a acabar com o dinheiro físico. O país já é um dos líderes da União Europeia na utilização de meios electrónicos de pagamento, mas agora o objectivo é acabar mesmo com as notas e moedas.
As mudanças devem começar no próximo ano. Os primeiros sectores a adoptar a medida vão ser os restaurantes, postos de gasolina e lojas de roupas, que deixam de ser obrigados a aceitar dinheiro vivo.
A Dinamarca pretende diminuir os custos e aumentar a segurança e a produtividade dos negócios, sendo que actualmente um em cada três dinamarqueses utiliza o MobilePay, uma aplicação para transferências financeiras através de telemóveis.
Esta é uma medida que não está isenta de críticas. Há quem tema que o aumento de utilização de meios electrónicos leve a um maior risco de fraudes, sublinhando que ao longo da última década estes casos duplicaram.
Já o líder do Banco Central Alemão, Carl-Ludwig Thiele, invocou várias razões para se manter o dinheiro em moeda e em notas, incluindo uma citação de Dostoyevsky. Em 1861, o escritor russo afirmou: "O dinheiro é a liberdade cunhada".
Como pode pensar-se num padrão-ouro para a moeda,
se a cotação desse metal é errática em si!?
CitarPortugal nem sequer é comparável com o Brasil, pois não tem moeda própria, embora eu consiga conceber um mecanismo excepcional de desvalorização da dívida, via revalorização, em consequência de uma mudança do sistema monetário [logo necessariamente uma só vez no tempo].
Podias clarificar a 2.ª parte da frase.
Hermes.... please....
Isto passou sem resposta, e eu também queria sabê-la.
Obrigado. :D
Realmente não tinha visto.
É assim, a minha aposta é que caminhamos inexorávelmente para um novo "padrão" ouro [à falta de melhor palavra], que o euro foi desenhado para a sua chegada e para se metamorfosear nesse momento.
A metamorfose consiste no euro se tornar o middle man de referência do Banco Central da Natureza através da criação de um mercado puramente físico de ouro com a profundidade das reservas de ouro do eurogrupo [cerca de 10 mil toneladas] e com a manutenção da ausência de enforcement dos contratos derivados de ouro obrigarem à entrega de ouro, i.e. os tribunais continuarão só a poder forçar a contraparte devedora a pagar moeda fiduciária.
Nesta metamorfose, os Bancos Centrais não cedem a independência monetária que conquistaram, o que varia é que as suas reservas deixam de ser em dólares e passam a ser só as reservas de ouro que já têm e que só precisam que se lhes limpe o pó.
A metamorfose do ouro é consequência da Eurolândia ter deixado de aumentar as compras de dívida pública americana em 2001 e da China tb o ter deixado de fazer em 2011/12. Está apenas 10 anos atrasada, graças aos interesses da China e de esta se preparar para a nova ordem monetária, tornando-se o maior importador de ouro. A hiperinflação do dólar já aconteceu, já leva 40 anos continuados, daí a Eurolândia e a China não precisarem de fazer nada e nada estarem a fazer.
A metamorfose do euro não consiste no euro substituir o papel do dólar nas reservas dos Bancos Centrais, consiste sim em providenciar o mercado mais líquido e com maior profundidade a quem não queira usar o euro... depois de terem descoberto que a riquesa não era o que pensavam ser, graças ao professor dólar.
Nesta metamorfose do sistema monetário internacional, os euros oleiam o comércio, mas o pagamento último [i.e. as poupanças] são em ouro, graças ao professor dólar. É a função que determina o valor, e velha nova função do ouro de ser o equilibrador último das balanças comerciais obriga a que este tenha de revalorizar acima de uma ordem de grandesa.
É esta metamorfose que salva países altamente endividados como os EUA [graças às suas 8 mil toneladas de ouro, embora tenham de prescindir do padrão dólar], bem como Portugal [se a minha memória não me falha, o Banco de Portugal tem a 8ª maior reserva de ouro per cápita]. Um pelintra que recebe uma herança é logo visto com outros olhos e passa logo a ser muito mais solvente...
E que me interessa a mim o euro ou o ouro,
se a moeda que detenha aforrada
ora compre mais ora compre
menos dos bens que
preciso e quero,
sem conseguir
fixar qual
o seu valor futuro!?
E que me interessa a mim o euro ou o ouro,
se a moeda que detenha aforrada
ora compre mais ora compre
menos dos bens que
preciso e quero,
sem conseguir
fixar qual
o seu valor futuro!?
Conheces alguma coisa que dê para fixar o valor da maneira que pretendes? O valor flutua e depende de vários factores. O que podes ter a certeza é que enquanto o euro for dominado pelos alemães, terá sempre algum valor. Se for dominado por podemos e syrizas ou larks, em menos de 6 meses servirá para papel higiénico. Do barato.
Conheces alguma coisa que dê para fixar o valor da maneira que pretendes?
O valor flutua e depende de vários factores. [ ]
Correção: 110 toneladas, cf. https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/kronen-zeitung-austria-repatriates-110-tonnes-from-uk/ (https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/kronen-zeitung-austria-repatriates-110-tonnes-from-uk/)
110 mil toneladas é um pouco menos que a quantidade total de ouro "acima" da terra, ou seja é barato tomar uma posição não trivial no próximo sistema monetário internacional.
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Para uma Rússia ou China, é uma potencial forma de evitar que se esteja a receber papel produtível em qualquer quantidade em troca de bens e serviços. Ao contrário de uma República das bananas, em que qualquer país, firma ou cidadão facilmente recusa essa moeda produzida em quantidades ilimitadas, com um USD, GBP, JPY, etc, isso é mais difícil de acontecer -- mas planear-se de acordo com a possibilidade de ser necessária uma defesa faz sentido.
Dito isto, acumular ouro não parece a melhor das hipóteses. Dir-se-ia melhor acumular bens físicos como petróleo, metais industriais, etc, mesmo que estes pudessem (como estão a) perder valor. Para evitar essa potencial perda de valor, seria de acumular esses materiais somente quando se encontrassem próximos ou abaixo de um nível de custo de produção que incluísse uma parte substancial da capacidade produtiva.
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
sabes como acabou o ouro padrao
e os peg ao ouro
peg dollar
peg franco suiço/ euro
quem te diz que peg vao durar desta vez?
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
sabes como acabou o ouro padrao
e os peg ao ouro
peg dollar
peg franco suiço/ euro
quem te diz que peg vao durar desta vez?
E sabes como acabam todas as moedas que perdem toda a sua confiança e credibilidade?
Conheces algum país rico e poderoso com notas do jogo do monopólio?
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
sabes como acabou o ouro padrao
e os peg ao ouro
peg dollar
peg franco suiço/ euro
quem te diz que peg vao durar desta vez?
E sabes como acabam todas as moedas que perdem toda a sua confiança e credibilidade?
Conheces algum país rico e poderoso com notas do jogo do monopólio?
China has also agreed with Russia to unify the new Silk Road high-speed rail project with Russia and Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union. At the same time Beijing has announced it is creating a huge $16 billion fund to develop gold mines along the rail route linking Russia and China and Central Asia. That suggests plans to greatly build up gold as central bank reserve share. China’s central bank has greatly increased its gold holdings in recent years, though whether it is now greater than the alleged Federal Reserve gold holdings of 8000 tons is not yet public. It is expected China must reveal its gold reserves on being formally accepted into the IMF SDR basket perhaps later this year.
Russia, China get very serious on de-dollarizing
[url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url] ([url]http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81644942/[/url])
ó pedro, explica-me lá como se eu tivese cinco anos, qual a vantagem de uma moeda pegged ao ouro. neste caso CNY e RUB.
é uma forma de moeda única, não há free float exchange.
é que ainda não percebi nem o racional do ouro nem o racional do euro.
vá lá tu que tens paciência...
Z
Lark
Respondo-te com uma pergunta muito simples:
Entre ouro e bonds americanas, qual achas mais seguro ter nas reservas de um banco central no futuro?
Especialmente se fosses banqueiro central da Rússia, China ou Irão, países que sofrem ou podem vir a sofrer graves sanções económicas e financeiras dos EUA.
sabes como acabou o ouro padrao
e os peg ao ouro
peg dollar
peg franco suiço/ euro
quem te diz que peg vao durar desta vez?
E sabes como acabam todas as moedas que perdem toda a sua confiança e credibilidade?
Conheces algum país rico e poderoso com notas do jogo do monopólio?
estás a falar do usd?
é que se estás nunca houve tantos em circulação e há muita falta deles em muito sítio. com a queda do petróleo os angolanos vêm.se à rascar para arranjar USD por exemplo.
e está perto de máximos históricos contra as principais moedas.
o estado que está por trás dele diz que ele é bom e tem um orçamento de defesa maior que os dez seguintes somados.
não deve ser do USD que está a falar.
Z
Feliz dia 700:
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=24423;image[/url])
Fonte: [url]http://mdbriefing.com/gold-rumors.shtml[/url] ([url]http://mdbriefing.com/gold-rumors.shtml[/url])
Feliz dia 700:
([url]http://www.thinkfn.com/forumbolsaforex/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=426.0;attach=24423;image[/url])
Fonte: [url]http://mdbriefing.com/gold-rumors.shtml[/url] ([url]http://mdbriefing.com/gold-rumors.shtml[/url])
Que grande potencial de subida, era capaz de fazer um reforço maluco para entrar longo
O gráfico ilustra grandes períodos de boa estabilidade do ouro.
Bom quesito para reserva de valor e comparação
de bens e serviços a trocar uns pelos outros.
O gráfico ilustra grandes períodos de boa estabilidade do ouro.
Bom quesito para reserva de valor e comparação
de bens e serviços a trocar uns pelos outros.
Nem por isso visto que vai (foi) existindo inflação.
Next week, China will begin its competition with London & New York and attempt to create the equivalent of the London gold fix but in Chinese yuan on April 19th. Of course the gold bugs are misrepresenting this as some dollar killer. Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards making the yuan convertible. By creating a yuan based gold fix, this is a back-door to floating the yuan itself. It will allow for arbitrage in currency so you can go long or short gold in dollars and the opposite in yuan and you have then created a yuan contract.
Antes de mais, não entendo porque o Pedro de repente se foi.
-------------------------------------------------CitarNext week, China will begin its competition with London & New York and attempt to create the equivalent of the London gold fix but in Chinese yuan on April 19th. Of course the gold bugs are misrepresenting this as some dollar killer. Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards making the yuan convertible. By creating a yuan based gold fix, this is a back-door to floating the yuan itself. It will allow for arbitrage in currency so you can go long or short gold in dollars and the opposite in yuan and you have then created a yuan contract.
Gostava de saber como tirar partido disto.
Claro que os objetivos, para além dos descritos, deverão ser muito mais abrangentes!
Antes de mais, não entendo porque o Pedro de repente se foi.
-------------------------------------------------CitarNext week, China will begin its competition with London & New York and attempt to create the equivalent of the London gold fix but in Chinese yuan on April 19th. Of course the gold bugs are misrepresenting this as some dollar killer. Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards making the yuan convertible. By creating a yuan based gold fix, this is a back-door to floating the yuan itself. It will allow for arbitrage in currency so you can go long or short gold in dollars and the opposite in yuan and you have then created a yuan contract.
Gostava de saber como tirar partido disto.
Claro que os objetivos, para além dos descritos, deverão ser muito mais abrangentes!
Ouro com aspecto de ir para baixo novamente contratos comprados por comerciais em máximos de 2011Continuo a achar que ainda poderá ser cedo. Acho que tem de descer abaixo do suporte, por volta dos +-1240.
mais um gráfico construído pela equipa de Robert Prechter a que muitos lhe chamam de fraude....
eu ando doente mas qd ficar bom (se ficar) meto aqui alguns trades deste sistema para ver se funciona mesmo
eu ando doente mas qd ficar bom (se ficar) meto aqui alguns trades deste sistema para ver se funciona mesmo
eu ando doente mas qd ficar bom (se ficar) meto aqui alguns trades deste sistema para ver se funciona mesmo
As melhoras.
eu ando doente mas qd ficar bom (se ficar) meto aqui alguns trades deste sistema para ver se funciona mesmo
eu ando doente mas qd ficar bom (se ficar) meto aqui alguns trades deste sistema para ver se funciona mesmoAs melhoras.
as melhoras
Silver is off to a great start in 2017, gaining nearly 16%. Could the gains become even larger? Yes if it can hurdle a key line in the sand discussed below.
Could historical outflows present an opportunity? Yesterday Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history.
To be long and strong owners of Gold & Silver, one wants/needs to see the Silver/Gold ratio to be heading higher. This ratio has remained inside of falling channel (A) in the left chart above since 2011. 6-year falling resistance was hit at (2) five weeks ago, where it reversed course and then proceed to break 9-month rising support. Further weakness then followed at (3).
Pennant patterns tend to frustrate both bulls and bears, as no trend is in play. These patterns often cause investors to back away due to the choppy nature of the pattern. Pennant patterns aren’t good about tipping one off to the future direction of an asset. They are good from this perspective; when a breakout from the pattern takes place, follow it, because big moves often follow.
GDX is going to breakout of this pattern and the odds are good a big move will follow. This will lead to an outstanding trade opportunity. Are you ready for it?
The chart below displays the relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the dollar is weaker than gold, the ratio heads lower… and is bullish for gold (see green line). When the US Dollar is stronger than Gold, the ratio heads higher… and is bearish for gold (see red line).
For the past 6 years, this ratio has been rising (leading to a bear market for gold and the precious metals sector). But the Dollar-Gold rally stalled at a convergence of trend line resistance (point 1). The ratio then gave way to a pullback and is currently testing its 6-year rising trend line (point 2).
If the Dollar-Gold ratio breaks support, it will send out its first bullish message in 6-years!
The ratio of Gold compared to the US Dollar over the past 20-years reflects that some long-term trends have taken place and the ratio is making an attempt to do something it hasn’t been able to accomplish in 6-years.
The ratio broke above 6-year falling channel back in 2001 at (1) and then it proceeded to rally for the next 10-years.
For the past 6-years, the ratio has continued to create a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (2).
Currently the ratio is attempting to do something that it has not done in 6-years, which is a breakout above falling channel (2) at (3).
The Gold Futures/Silver Futures ratio over the past decade bottomed in 2011 and started moving higher, sending a bearish message to both Gold & Silver. The ratio has rallied since the 2011 lows, where it could be creating a "topping pattern" over the past couple of years.
The long-term trend in the ratio remains up since 2011, which is hard on metals. Over the past couple of years, the ratio could be forming a head & shoulders topping pattern, with the head taking place at the highs back in 2008. The short-term rally of late, could have completed the right shoulder, of this pattern at (2).
If this would happen to be a topping pattern, what it does at (3) becomes very important for both Gold & Silver bulls. Metals bulls want to see this ratio break support at (3) and head lower. If the ratio would break support, historically Gold, Silver and Miners would attract buyers.
Embora o tempo atmosférico esteja morno neste final de primavera, o verão pode apresentar-se escaldante nos mercados com a possível inversão de tendência em alguns ativos fulcrais, como os metais preciosos e o Euro (Bear para Bull) e, inversamente, o Dólar (Bull para Bear).
The Gold/Dollar chart reflects that Gold was much stronger than the U.S. Dollar (US$) from 2001 until 2011. Since 2011, the US$ has been stronger than Gold, as the ratio has declined for 6-years. (...)
The Gold/US$ ratio hit rising support line (1) at (2) earlier this year, which held and a rally then followed, as the US$ hit a high and Gold has rallied. This pattern could be part of a bullish ascending triangle that is forming. The top of this potential pattern is being tested this month at (3).
If the ratio breaks out at (3), Gold, Silver and miners could do very well!
The Gold/US Dollar ratio is testing a level that has been critical to Gold bulls for the past few years and we suspect it will be critical for it again at this level!
The ratio declined sharply from 2011 thru 2013, where it hit a low in the 14.4 level. After hitting this level, the ratio rallied and created a new trading range before turning weak again and breaking below 2013 lows in late 2014. Since breaking below the 14.4 level in 2014, the ratio has created another trading range for the past couple of years, shaded in blue.
The ratio is now testing 2016 highs at (1), again this week at (2), which happens to be the 14.4 level again. As it is testing the top of the trading range at (2), momentum is now hitting the highest levels in the past 6-years (2011 highs) at (3).
Even though Gold has been down hard the past 6-years, it did NOT break below rising support off the 2001 lows, which was tested at last years lows. This is a long-term positive.
Over the past couple of years, Gold could be forming a base, that is taking the shape of a "Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders" pattern. If the read would happen to be correct, an all important test is in play at this time. The key test in play is this… Gold is testing the underside of the neckline, which is resistance at this time.
Bottom Line – If this read is correct and Gold breaks above the neckline at (1), we could see buying pressure take place, that has been absent for years.
Gold has been weaker than the US$ since 2011 highs, highlighted in Gold/Dollar chart above. The ratio is attempting to do something this week that it hasn't been able to accomplish the past few years.
The ratio has traded sideways for the past three years, inside the blue shaded zone.
Gold/Dollar ratio is attempting a breakout above dual multi-year resistance this week at (1).
Gold/Dollar strength in the past has been positive for Gold, Silver and Miners. Will it be different this time?
Let's look at Gold and Silver patterns on a "Monthly basis" over the past 7-years. The rally in Gold and Silver since early 2016 has taken both of them back to test levels that were heavy for each of them over the past few years.
Gold and Silver created "Monthly Reversal" pattern this month at each (2), just under key overhead resistance at (1). These monthly reversals are the largest monthly reversals for both metals in the past few years.
One-month reversals at resistance in time could be concerning to Gold & Silver bulls. A one-month reversal pattern doesn't prove that the 18-month rally is over. The reversal pattern could be something to pay close attention too, since Gold and Silver traders have created crowded bullish trades, as resistance tests are in play at each (1).
Qual é o ETF mais indicado para comprar ouro?Há alguns riscos em termos técnicos no Ouro. Mas há quem faça previsão e ache o contrário. Vê as duas imagens em anexo.
Será uma boa opção nesta altura? Estou a tirar dinheiro das cryptos e queria investir em algo relativamente estável só para não estar parado nos depósitos a prazo, mas como SPY está tão sobrecomprado...
ja agora , as empresas que compram ouro aceitam grains? ou so por grama unidade ?
ja agora , as empresas que compram ouro aceitam grains? ou so por grama unidade ?
Aceitam grains, convertem em gramas de ouro puro.
A DEGIRO não tenho nenhum ETF sobre o ouro, pelo menos que compense.Dark, o que é que queres dizer com que compense ? Que siga o preço do ouro sem grande tracking error ?
Aqui vão oferecer-te sempre muitos pontos abaixo do spot. É o problema de transacionar ouro físico...
Para que país pretendes enviar? Penso que a transportadora te faz um seguro, mas dependendo do valor da barra o custo de enviares pode ser semelhante ao spread que te comem por cá
eu tenho interesse em comprar barras de ouro, desde que não sejam muito grandes.
Até 20 a 25 gramas.
É uma questão de liquidez para quando quiser vender.
Mas porque não fazer a certificação na Casa da Moeda? Será que a Barra não passaria a valer mais ainda?
Kin, quando compraste a barra ela não tinha algum tipo de certificado ? Ainda era um valor significativo...
Eventualmente ficaria a valer mais se vendesses a um particular. Qual foi o desconto face ao valor spot do ouro ? Eu ouço valores na casa dos 40%. É assim tanto ?Mas porque não fazer a certificação na Casa da Moeda? Será que a Barra não passaria a valer mais ainda?
Creio que, se só tivesse ouro, ficaria a valer mais ou menos o mesmo, eles só atribuem valor ao peso em ouro.
Eventualmente ficaria a valer mais se vendesses a um particular. Qual foi o desconto face ao valor spot do ouro ? Eu ouço valores na casa dos 40%. É assim tanto ?Mas porque não fazer a certificação na Casa da Moeda? Será que a Barra não passaria a valer mais ainda?
Creio que, se só tivesse ouro, ficaria a valer mais ou menos o mesmo, eles só atribuem valor ao peso em ouro.
Será na prata esse desconto ? Ia jurar que tinha lido um valor absurdo desses.
Deve ser nos diamantes,
por causa do monopólio
judaico do respectivo
comércio mundial!
(Impressionante!)
Eventualmente ficaria a valer mais se vendesses a um particular. Qual foi o desconto face ao valor spot do ouro ? Eu ouço valores na casa dos 40%. É assim tanto ?Mas porque não fazer a certificação na Casa da Moeda? Será que a Barra não passaria a valer mais ainda?
Creio que, se só tivesse ouro, ficaria a valer mais ou menos o mesmo, eles só atribuem valor ao peso em ouro.
40% só apanhando uma banhada. Os descontos no ouro são relativamente pequenos. Para barra, 10% até já é bastante.
Já consegui vender a barra, numa empresa especializada, em Lisboa (que não revelarei ainda). No entanto, aconteceu-me uma aventura absolutamente incrível no decurso dessa venda. Neste momento ainda não tenho a certeza de que a venda vai mesmo ficar efectiva. A história que me aconteceu é mesmo curiosa. Dependendo do que se vai passar nos próximos dias ou semanas, isto ainda pode ser uma desgraça para mim, ou então ser uma anedota engraçada. Depois conto os pormenores.kin2010
Já consegui vender a barra, numa empresa especializada, em Lisboa (que não revelarei ainda). No entanto, aconteceu-me uma aventura absolutamente incrível no decurso dessa venda. Neste momento ainda não tenho a certeza de que a venda vai mesmo ficar efectiva. A história que me aconteceu é mesmo curiosa. Dependendo do que se vai passar nos próximos dias ou semanas, isto ainda pode ser uma desgraça para mim, ou então ser uma anedota engraçada. Depois conto os pormenores.kin2010
Pode dormir tranquilo! :)
Que complicação!
Foi tão complicado para comprar?
Não verificou quais as caracteristicas que tinha a barra?
Durma sossegado, digo eu!
Fui a uma loja das que compra ouro, tendo telefonado previamente. O homem que lá estava primeiro propôs-me comprá-la por € 8000, um preço bem baixo. Recusei. Ele viu a barra e disse que as gravações dos números pareciam suspeitas. Depois aproximou um íman da barra e ambos se repeliam ligeiramente. Deu-me o íman para eu experimentar e eu confirmei. Disse-me que a barra era falsa, que o ouro não é magnético. Que devia ter um núcleo de tungsténio ou outros metais.
Aconselhou-me ou a ir tentar vendê-la noutro lado ou a ir à Casa da Moeda fazer certificação. Fui a esta, informaram-me que podiam fazê-la, mas só fazendo vários furos na barra. Deixei isso em stand by e fui a outra loja.
Eu acho que o primeiro comprador tentou comprar barato colocando em dúvida a barra. Se ele realmente tivesse dúvidas, não teria oferecido os 8,000 EUR por ela.
O preço de venda até nem foi mau, 10% abaixo do spot.
Eu invisto em ouro há mais de 11 anos e evito as barras de ouro, mais ainda as que têm mais de 5 ou 10 gramas.
Gosto sim de investir em moedas de ouro, principalmente moedas de ouro que tenham valor numismatico.
Moedas de ouro bullion só quando o ouro está com forte tendência de subida, como foi o caso de 2000 a 2012
Nos ultimos 3 anos o ouro tem estado estável.
Barras de ouro falsas existem muitas, principalmente no ebay.
O problema é que não existem barras de ouro padrão.
Vou dar um exemplo: uma libra de ouro tem de pesar 7,99 gramas e ter um diametro de 22,05 mm e uma espessura de 1,52 mm
Se tiver qualquer outro metal que não ouro, ou basta o grau de pureza ser de 80% em vez de 91,6% e terá de ter outros pesos ou outras medidas.
É uma questão de densidade dos metais.
Nas barras isso não existe porque uma barra de 100 gramas não tem uma medida padrão.
Já subiu 10% desde que eu vendi... ora bolas.
Mas felizmente ainda mantive mais material.
Pois mas para comprares ouro físico só mesmo em sites especializados na internet porque nas ourivesarias é um roubo 😓
Ouro físico através da compra de barras? Moedas?
Pois mas para comprares ouro físico só mesmo em sites especializados na internet porque nas ourivesarias é um roubo 😓
Ouro físico através da compra de barras? Moedas?
Ouro físico é má ideia, pelo menos para especular.
Comprar ouro em EUR não elimina a exposição ao USD. Ele continua a variar e afectar quanto vale em EUR, tanto devido ao movimento do ouro como devido ao movimento do EUR/USD.É como comprar S&P em EUR. É uma mera conversão de valor.
Ah, sim, tu disseste IB. Sorry. É que há IFs em Portugal que já fazem.
Nesse caso só via opções que deixes exercer ou então os europeus (esse XAD1 dá mas é EUR hedge)
Boa tarde Automek,Sim, segundo me constou (não confirmei pessoalmente) o BIG permite. Parece que arranjaram uma espécie de KID geral que lhes permite ter esses ETFs americanos em negociação para os clientes. Não sei mais detalhes do que isto. E, claro, as comissões são as que sabemos em IFs portugueses (tipo 15€ por negócio ou algo do género).
Estas a dizer que existe, em Portugal, alguma entidade que permite a um portugues "normal" (nao profissional) comprar ETFs americanos ? Tipo GLD....
Obrigado Automek.Carlos, depois se puderes partilha aqui aquilo que descobriste. Obrigado.
Por acaso sou cliente do BIG. Visto que na IB nao consigo aceder aos etfs pretendidos, o BIG poderá ser uma opcao para esses produtos.
Vou confirmar isso.
Obrigado Automek.Carlos, depois se puderes partilha aqui aquilo que descobriste. Obrigado.
Por acaso sou cliente do BIG. Visto que na IB nao consigo aceder aos etfs pretendidos, o BIG poderá ser uma opcao para esses produtos.
Vou confirmar isso.
Obrigado Automek.Carlos, depois se puderes partilha aqui aquilo que descobriste. Obrigado.
Por acaso sou cliente do BIG. Visto que na IB nao consigo aceder aos etfs pretendidos, o BIG poderá ser uma opcao para esses produtos.
Vou confirmar isso.
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I am a bit confused. You have forecast that interest rates will rise but official rates will decline. Exactly how does this materialize?
Thank you
GF
ANSWER: People seem to look at just the official interest rates set by the central bank and assume what I am saying is wrong. They have to look at what is really going on in interest rates. We have witnessed the greatest gap between official rates and private rates in history. While deposit rates are virtually zero, car loans which are secured, are at about 4.5% in the United States (up to 9.5% outside the USA). The Bank of America, N.A. prime rate was 5.25% as of August 1st, 2019.
In 1981, the Fed’s Discount Rate for banks was 14% at the peak back in 1981. The Prime Rate peaked at 21.5% at that time. This meant that the Prime Rate was 53.5% above the Fed’s Discount Rate. In August 2019, the Fed’s Discount Rate is 2.75% and the Prime Rate is 5.25% or a 90% markup. The spread between public and private rates has nearly doubled.
Official rates can be manipulated by the central bank for it can control the short-term rates, but not the long-term without instituting some form of capital controls. But they close the free markets in government bonds.
The spread on the private rates v official rates has doubled! I am nor forecasting the superficial trend in manipulated rates by central banks, but the real world rates in the private world. I have stated numerous times, the bankers have NOT passed on the lower interest rates to the people. The spreads have doubled – not declined nor did they even stay the same. If the spread was the same as it was in 1981, then the Prime Rate should be 4.2% instead of 5.25% and a secured car loan should be 3.4% instead of 4.5%.
:D
Exclusive: Fake-branded bars slip dirty gold into world markets
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-swiss-fakes-exclusive/exclusive-fake-branded-bars-slip-dirty-gold-into-world-markets-idUSKCN1VI0DD?il=0&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0gmv-KPSLoQYguj99LeFAiZrHMaCzdi4nb9Y-Vl-HSEVxdyurOUnUNHVs (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-swiss-fakes-exclusive/exclusive-fake-branded-bars-slip-dirty-gold-into-world-markets-idUSKCN1VI0DD?il=0&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0gmv-KPSLoQYguj99LeFAiZrHMaCzdi4nb9Y-Vl-HSEVxdyurOUnUNHVs)
Há ou não empréstimos entre particulares a juros baixos?
Quando saí dos bancos da escola surpreendeu-me
não haver praticamente endosso de letras e
livranças antes de entrega aos bancos,
O juro de desconto seria acordado
caso a caso, para a par.
Achas que o risco é maior?
E a garantia hipotecária,
penhora, aval de fiador,
não contam, para
atenuar um juro,
não obstante,
positivo!?
Para o ouro subir e existir destruiçao de moeda teria que haver inflaçao.
Com mortgages a -0.5% é porque o banco assume que o futuro é deflacionario. Nao vejo como o ouro poderia subir nesse caso.
Para o ouro subir e existir destruiçao de moeda teria que haver inflaçao.
Com mortgages a -0.5% é porque o banco assume que o futuro é deflacionario. Nao vejo como o ouro poderia subir nesse caso.
neste momento temos taxas reais bem negativas, deflacao my ass
o plano eh exacvamente o oposto
Para o ouro subir e existir destruiçao de moeda teria que haver inflaçao.
Com mortgages a -0.5% é porque o banco assume que o futuro é deflacionario. Nao vejo como o ouro poderia subir nesse caso.
neste momento temos taxas reais bem negativas, deflacao my ass
o plano eh exacvamente o oposto
O plano é que a inflaçao suba por ai fora, certo? Mas esta nos 1%.
Qual é o trigger para a inflaçao disparar ? A politica expansionista do BCE ja leva anos e até agora nao teve efeitos na inflaçao.
The consumer price inflation data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which corroborates prior inflation data, says that, yes, prices are rising, but they’re rising sharply in services that are not impacted by imports and tariffs, such as rents and other housing costs, healthcare, education, and other services, and also in restaurants (where customers pay mostly for labor and rent). But inflation in durable goods, such as electronics, cars, and the like – where the tariffs would show up – was very low.
Para o ouro subir e existir destruiçao de moeda teria que haver inflaçao.
Com mortgages a -0.5% é porque o banco assume que o futuro é deflacionario. Nao vejo como o ouro poderia subir nesse caso.
neste momento temos taxas reais bem negativas, deflacao my ass
o plano eh exacvamente o oposto
O plano é que a inflaçao suba por ai fora, certo? Mas esta nos 1%.
Qual é o trigger para a inflaçao disparar ? A politica expansionista do BCE ja leva anos e até agora nao teve efeitos na inflaçao.
Ugly, os QEs colocariam dinheiro na economia via compra de obrigações caso os respectivos estados incurressem em deficits, o que aumentaria a procura, iria gerar inflação e necessitar de QT para voltar ao equilíbrio.
Na situação actual de deficits públicos equilibrados não vejo como o QE coloca "mais dinheiro" na economia. Basicamente está a recolocar dinheiro que já existia antes e a impedir que a massa monetária diminua.
A "impressão" per si não gera inflação, tem que existir um aumento de procura associado. Com deficits públicos equilibrados e o poder de compra reprimido com impostos elevados não vejo isso acontecer.
Ugly, os QEs colocariam dinheiro na economia via compra de obrigações caso os respectivos estados incurressem em deficits, o que aumentaria a procura, iria gerar inflação e necessitar de QT para voltar ao equilíbrio.
Na situação actual de deficits públicos equilibrados não vejo como o QE coloca "mais dinheiro" na economia. Basicamente está a recolocar dinheiro que já existia antes e a impedir que a massa monetária diminua.
A "impressão" per si não gera inflação, tem que existir um aumento de procura associado. Com deficits públicos equilibrados e o poder de compra reprimido com impostos elevados não vejo isso acontecer.
Pip-Boy, os QE's mais não são do que criação de moeda pelos BC's que é transferida para os balanços dos bancos (e empresas), em troca de títulos de dívida, que ficam registados nos balanços dos BC's. Esperava-se que os QE's tivessem um período de vida equivalente à maturidade das obrigações que os BC's tinham no balanço. Ou seja, na maturidade, a moeda seria devolvida pelas entidades devedoras (tesouro, empresas) aos BC's para que pudesse ser destruída. A Fed fez isto durante pouco mais de 1 ano (o quantitative tightening), ao não renovar os títulos de dívida (redução do balanço). Ou seja, durante o período de tempo em que durou o QT, desapareceram (muitos) dollars de circulação.
Mas eis que chegámos a uma nova realidade. Os QT's acabaram (ou nem chegaram a começar) e, pelos vistos, iremos entrar numa nova ronda de QE's, infinitos. O dinheiro que sair dos BC's em troco de obrigações não irá nunca ser destruído. É a monetização dos títulos de dívida. Criação de massa monetária ad aeternum.
"The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth."
Esta é a temida hiper-inflação (Venezuela!). O que se perspectiva é crescimento cada vez maior da massa monetária disponível (fruto do maná dos BC's) para uma economia com crescimento cada vez mais anémico.
A inflação também pode ocorrer por mismatch entre procura e oferta e, o que parece estar a acontecer ao nível dos bens duradouros, é um excesso de capacidade instalada. Ou seja, há uma pressão deflacionária ao nível de bens duradouros. Já ao nível dos serviços, a conversa parece ser outra, parecendo haver excesso de procura, daí as pressões inflacionárias. Não é por acaso que os vários PMI's de serviços têm-se mantido expansionistas, ao contrários dos PMI's da industria
Ugly, os QEs colocariam dinheiro na economia via compra de obrigações caso os respectivos estados incurressem em deficits, o que aumentaria a procura, iria gerar inflação e necessitar de QT para voltar ao equilíbrio.
Na situação actual de deficits públicos equilibrados não vejo como o QE coloca "mais dinheiro" na economia. Basicamente está a recolocar dinheiro que já existia antes e a impedir que a massa monetária diminua.
A "impressão" per si não gera inflação, tem que existir um aumento de procura associado. Com deficits públicos equilibrados e o poder de compra reprimido com impostos elevados não vejo isso acontecer.
Pip-Boy, os QE's mais não são do que criação de moeda pelos BC's que é transferida para os balanços dos bancos (e empresas), em troca de títulos de dívida, que ficam registados nos balanços dos BC's. Esperava-se que os QE's tivessem um período de vida equivalente à maturidade das obrigações que os BC's tinham no balanço. Ou seja, na maturidade, a moeda seria devolvida pelas entidades devedoras (tesouro, empresas) aos BC's para que pudesse ser destruída. A Fed fez isto durante pouco mais de 1 ano (o quantitative tightening), ao não renovar os títulos de dívida (redução do balanço). Ou seja, durante o período de tempo em que durou o QT, desapareceram (muitos) dollars de circulação.
Mas eis que chegámos a uma nova realidade. Os QT's acabaram (ou nem chegaram a começar) e, pelos vistos, iremos entrar numa nova ronda de QE's, infinitos. O dinheiro que sair dos BC's em troco de obrigações não irá nunca ser destruído. É a monetização dos títulos de dívida. Criação de massa monetária ad aeternum.
"The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth."
Esta é a temida hiper-inflação (Venezuela!). O que se perspectiva é crescimento cada vez maior da massa monetária disponível (fruto do maná dos BC's) para uma economia com crescimento cada vez mais anémico.
A inflação também pode ocorrer por mismatch entre procura e oferta e, o que parece estar a acontecer ao nível dos bens duradouros, é um excesso de capacidade instalada. Ou seja, há uma pressão deflacionária ao nível de bens duradouros. Já ao nível dos serviços, a conversa parece ser outra, parecendo haver excesso de procura, daí as pressões inflacionárias. Não é por acaso que os vários PMI's de serviços têm-se mantido expansionistas, ao contrários dos PMI's da industria
Ugly, essa definiçao é a definiçao de inflaçao classica, que assume uma money velocity constante. A definiçao moderna de inflaçao so tem em conta o aumento de preços.
Como explicas que os US nao sejam a Venezuela quando o QE triplicou a base monetaria entre 2008 e 2011 ?
O Krugman ja deu a resposta com a liquidity trap, e até ver continua valida. A ver se essa hiper-inflaçao chegara algum dia... (https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/way-off-base-2/)
OK, entao se em 20 anos perdes 33% do poder de compra como justificas chegar a uma hiper-inflaçao nesse caso ?
Ugly, os QEs colocariam dinheiro na economia via compra de obrigações caso os respectivos estados incurressem em deficits, o que aumentaria a procura, iria gerar inflação e necessitar de QT para voltar ao equilíbrio.
Na situação actual de deficits públicos equilibrados não vejo como o QE coloca "mais dinheiro" na economia. Basicamente está a recolocar dinheiro que já existia antes e a impedir que a massa monetária diminua.
A "impressão" per si não gera inflação, tem que existir um aumento de procura associado. Com deficits públicos equilibrados e o poder de compra reprimido com impostos elevados não vejo isso acontecer.
Pip-Boy, os QE's mais não são do que criação de moeda pelos BC's que é transferida para os balanços dos bancos (e empresas), em troca de títulos de dívida, que ficam registados nos balanços dos BC's. Esperava-se que os QE's tivessem um período de vida equivalente à maturidade das obrigações que os BC's tinham no balanço. Ou seja, na maturidade, a moeda seria devolvida pelas entidades devedoras (tesouro, empresas) aos BC's para que pudesse ser destruída. A Fed fez isto durante pouco mais de 1 ano (o quantitative tightening), ao não renovar os títulos de dívida (redução do balanço). Ou seja, durante o período de tempo em que durou o QT, desapareceram (muitos) dollars de circulação.
Mas eis que chegámos a uma nova realidade. Os QT's acabaram (ou nem chegaram a começar) e, pelos vistos, iremos entrar numa nova ronda de QE's, infinitos. O dinheiro que sair dos BC's em troco de obrigações não irá nunca ser destruído. É a monetização dos títulos de dívida. Criação de massa monetária ad aeternum.
"The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth."
Esta é a temida hiper-inflação (Venezuela!). O que se perspectiva é crescimento cada vez maior da massa monetária disponível (fruto do maná dos BC's) para uma economia com crescimento cada vez mais anémico.
A inflação também pode ocorrer por mismatch entre procura e oferta e, o que parece estar a acontecer ao nível dos bens duradouros, é um excesso de capacidade instalada. Ou seja, há uma pressão deflacionária ao nível de bens duradouros. Já ao nível dos serviços, a conversa parece ser outra, parecendo haver excesso de procura, daí as pressões inflacionárias. Não é por acaso que os vários PMI's de serviços têm-se mantido expansionistas, ao contrários dos PMI's da industria
Ugly, essa definiçao é a definiçao de inflaçao classica, que assume uma money velocity constante. A definiçao moderna de inflaçao so tem em conta o aumento de preços.
Como explicas que os US nao sejam a Venezuela quando o QE triplicou a base monetaria entre 2008 e 2011 ?
O Krugman ja deu a resposta com a liquidity trap, e até ver continua valida. A ver se essa hiper-inflaçao chegara algum dia... (https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/way-off-base-2/)
What Is Inflation Definition – Causes of Inflation Rate and How to Fight the Effectshttps://www.moneycrashers.com/what-is-inflation-definition-causes-inflation-rate/ (https://www.moneycrashers.com/what-is-inflation-definition-causes-inflation-rate/)
Mark Carney calls for global monetary system to replace the dollarhttps://www.ft.com/content/a775b55a-c5c2-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9 (https://www.ft.com/content/a775b55a-c5c2-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9)
Hora de ir comprando ouro amigos do além-mar
[url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url] ([url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url])
Toda vez que o deficit público dos EUA entra em trajetória de aumento,o ouro explode:
(Colocar o gráfico na escala de tempo máxima)
[url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url] ([url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url])
Creio que os EUA entraram numa trajetória de explosão do deficit público que vai durar alguns anos
Já comecei minhas compras de ouro
Pretendo fazer aportes mensais,até chegar a 8% do meu patrimônio em ouro no período de um ano;
Posso acelerar as compras,conforme os sinais do mercado
Não se precipitem,entrem devagar,o ouro ao que parece entrou num movimento de alta de longo prazo,vai durar uns 8 ou 10 anos
Hora de ir comprando ouro amigos do além-mar
[url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url] ([url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url])
Toda vez que o deficit público dos EUA entra em trajetória de aumento,o ouro explode:
(Colocar o gráfico na escala de tempo máxima)
[url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url] ([url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url])
Creio que os EUA entraram numa trajetória de explosão do deficit público que vai durar alguns anos
Já comecei minhas compras de ouro
Pretendo fazer aportes mensais,até chegar a 8% do meu patrimônio em ouro no período de um ano;
Posso acelerar as compras,conforme os sinais do mercado
Não se precipitem,entrem devagar,o ouro ao que parece entrou num movimento de alta de longo prazo,vai durar uns 8 ou 10 anos
Qual a opção de investimento que vais considerar para fazeres reforços mensais?
Obrigado
Hora de ir comprando ouro amigos do além-mar
[url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url] ([url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url])
Toda vez que o deficit público dos EUA entra em trajetória de aumento,o ouro explode:
(Colocar o gráfico na escala de tempo máxima)
[url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url] ([url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url])
Creio que os EUA entraram numa trajetória de explosão do deficit público que vai durar alguns anos
Já comecei minhas compras de ouro
Pretendo fazer aportes mensais,até chegar a 8% do meu patrimônio em ouro no período de um ano;
Posso acelerar as compras,conforme os sinais do mercado
Não se precipitem,entrem devagar,o ouro ao que parece entrou num movimento de alta de longo prazo,vai durar uns 8 ou 10 anos
Qual a opção de investimento que vais considerar para fazeres reforços mensais?
Obrigado
Pois então,já comecei as compras,aqui no Brasil tem ouro escritural negociado em bolsa,chama-se OZ1D,e em tese,vc pode resgatar em ouro físico a qualquer momento na bolsa(acho que tem que ir a São Paulo para isso)
Mas creio que ninguém faça isso,quem quer ouro físico compra logo a mercadoria(com todos os inconvenientes de baixa liquidez,custodiar em casa ou em cofre nos bancos,etc)
Na semana passada a yield das USTreasuries teve uma inversão violenta da tendência decrescente dos últimos meses e o ouro, por sua vez, reverteu a ascensão. Ou seja, o ouro correlaciona inversamente com as yields (as yields caem, o ouro sobe).
o ouro eh uma proteccao contra a inflacao e deflacao, contra problemas no sistema financeiro
[ ]
yields descem->perspectivas de deflação->banco emissor [tende a] emite moeda ->ouro sobe
Hora de ir comprando ouro amigos do além-mar
[url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url] ([url]http://acertarnamosca.blogspot.com/2019/09/um-dia-pode-ser-muito-tarde.html[/url])
Toda vez que o deficit público dos EUA entra em trajetória de aumento,o ouro explode:
(Colocar o gráfico na escala de tempo máxima)
[url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url] ([url]https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-budget[/url])
Creio que os EUA entraram numa trajetória de explosão do deficit público que vai durar alguns anos
Já comecei minhas compras de ouro
Pretendo fazer aportes mensais,até chegar a 8% do meu patrimônio em ouro no período de um ano;
Posso acelerar as compras,conforme os sinais do mercado
Não se precipitem,entrem devagar,o ouro ao que parece entrou num movimento de alta de longo prazo,vai durar uns 8 ou 10 anos
Qual a opção de investimento que vais considerar para fazeres reforços mensais?
Obrigado
Li só a parte final que não devo ter percebido
porque o que me parece sucederia com
a monetarização da dívida pública
é antes uma diminuição de
moeda em circulação!
Por exemplo, os USA contrairiam
uma dívida adicional de X mil milhões de $;
subscrever essas obrigações entrega notas
e diminui depósitos de particulares e empresas,
além de diminuir o valor transacionável de anterior
dívida emitida a juro menor. Em quê isto dá para
valorizar o ouro!? O que é que não estou a ver?
Não sei - para mim o futuro é muito misterioso e a economia tb - no entanto, o belo metal dourado (Aurum *) parece ter um potencial considerável de subida... on verra, bien sûr... :-\
* https://la.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurum
Estas frases são particularmente curiosas. Quem sabe se tal profecia se poderá um dia concretizar (?):
«Our hunch is that equities markets may rise, but gold would enter a massive bull market as investors sought assets to protect against currency debasement and the resulting inflation. In such a scenario, gold could easily surpass $35,000 per ounce – 1.5 times today’s $5.6 tr monetary base. Once again, the winners would be gold investors.»
(Goehring & Rozencwajg, 08/ 31/ 2023)
(https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/gold-bull-market-prices)
Se o ouro atingisse os espantosos $35,000 per ounce, isso seria 18 vezes o preço de hoje: 1,943.50 - mas, quem pode saber, realmente?? :-\
Se o ouro atingisse os espantosos $35,000 per ounce, isso seria 18 vezes o preço de hoje: 1,943.50 - mas, quem pode saber, realmente?? :-\
E o que significaria isso em termos de poder de compra? A mesma coisa?
Abstraindo da valorização do stock dos possidentes originais de ouro,
comprar commodities por x ou k.x com o rendimento
y ou k.y equivale ao mesmo. Deve o dinheiro
ser uma commodity ou um bem só
produzido proporcionalmente
ao volume comércio?
Se o ouro atingisse os espantosos $35,000 per ounce, isso seria 18 vezes o preço de hoje: 1,943.50 - mas, quem pode saber, realmente?? :-\
E o que significaria isso em termos de poder de compra? A mesma coisa?
Abstraindo da valorização do stock dos possidentes originais de ouro,
comprar commodities por x ou k.x com o rendimento
y ou k.y equivale ao mesmo. Deve o dinheiro
ser uma commodity ou um bem só
produzido proporcionalmente
ao volume comércio?
«Once again, the winners would be gold investors.»
(Goehring & Rozencwajg, 08/ 31/ 2023)
Assets fall into one of two categories: securities or commodities.
But because digital assets are new and evolving, it is often
unclear which category they fall into. Understanding
the difference between securities and
commodities is important [...]
Tenho de voltar a ouvir,
no tal disco do milionário
de Braga na Flórida,
o que ele diz
sobre as
commodities e as securitiesCitarAssets fall into one of two categories: securities or commodities.
But because digital assets are new and evolving, it is often
unclear which category they fall into. Understanding
the difference between securities and
commodities is important [...]
O que será que as liga?
commodity - stock de capital?
security - fluxo de rendimento?
E tem-se uma coisa ou outra?
y - rendimento
k - capital
i - taxa de juro
y = k.i (isoquantas de renda)
O que diz o Braga-Milhão?
Mas falou das commodities e das securities.
Tenho de ouvir essa parte outra vez.
Não há paciência +ara ver anúncios!
Interesting! But I must reread it.
... even, more!? hum...
but very wise correlating gold price with dollar.
that link nor even trump will cut.
India and China and Switzerland
and London are wtaching Washington
O ouro vai de vento em popa. Reduzi um pouco a posição que tinha, com ganhos.