E acerca do carvão, dos ilustres Goehring & Rozencwajg (2024):
«Coal
Coal prices were mixed in the fourth quarter. High-quality Appalachian thermal coal advanced by 10%, Illinois Basin coal fell by 10%, and Powder River coal was flat. Internationally, Australian and South African thermal coal fell by nearly 10 and 20%, respectively. Surprisingly resilient Chinese steel production drove metallurgical coal sharply higher by 37% during the quarter.
Commodities are mainly cyclical, primarily driven by the capital investment cycle. Generally, finding the sector most starved for capital is a sound investment strategy. Over the past fifteen years, we cannot identify a sector more capital-starved than coal mining. At the same time, global demand has remained resilient. The combination will likely lead to higher prices. In 3Q23 alone, China permitted more new coal-fired power plants than in all of 2021. Recent reports by the Development and Research Center, a Chinese think-tank advising the government, suggest China must add a staggering 200 GW of new coal-fired power by 2030 – 15% more than today and equivalent to all of Canada’s electricity generation capacity. India also plans to build nearly 90 GW of additional coal-fired electricity by 2032, representing an increase of almost 40%.
Robust demand combined with chronic underinvestment in new mine supply has already driven thermal coal prices to levels nearly three times higher than the prior bull market peak made in 2011. Although coal has pulled back from 2022 record levels, we remain bullish. Coal equities have been the winners in every prior commodity bull market, from each sector’s low to their respective highs. They have already assumed their leadership position in the unfolding bull market and we believe this will continue for the duration of this bull market as well.»
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/4q-2024-natural-resources-market
