Czech crown rise vs euro to be currency trade of 2017 -ING

[Primator]

Boas,

Vivo actualmente na Rep. Checa e tenho algumas poupancas em CZK, qual o melhor instrumento para beneficiar de uma valorizacao da CZK face ao EUR? ( assumindo que o Banco Central Checo ira deixar a CZK flutuar livremente algures durante este ano).

Cumps

http://www.reuters.com/article/czech-markets-crown-idUSL8N1BI4FE

[vbm]

Não sei, mas também eu gostava de escolher
uma moeda mais segura do que o euro...

[kitano]

O melhor instrumento, se achas que vai valorizar face ao eur, é manteres as poupanças em czk

[Primator]

O melhor instrumento, se achas que vai valorizar face ao eur, é manteres as poupanças em czk

sem duvida, nao so vou manter as poupancas em CZK como tambem ja transferi (via transferwise) o que tinha em Portugal em EUR para CZK
agora estou a pensar em aumentar a exposicao, usar um instrumento derivado e alavancar ate 3x
ex. entar curto contracto EUR/CZK ...

[kitano]

Se estás assim tão seguro é o que tens que fazer para aumentares a tua exposição...tens que ter apenas atenção à alavancagem é à volatilidade para não levares com uma margin call....

Mas porque é que estás tão convencido que o banco central ao largar o peg a moeda sobe?

É que por exemplo o fanco suíço muita gente quer ter como moeda de reserva, CZK nem por isso...

[Reg]

O que republica checa ganha por ter moeda  ganhar contra euro?

o crescimento economico deles  esta cair
http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/gdp-growth-annual


http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/balance-of-trade

balança comercial tambem  ja esteve muito melhor

http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/imports
http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/current-account
importaçoes a subir


Suiça balança comercial bem positiva mesmo moeda forte
http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/balance-of-trade
http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/gdp-growth-annual
http://pt.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/current-account

Nations with chronic current account deficits often come under increased investor scrutiny during periods of heightened uncertainty. The currencies of such nations often come under speculative attack during such times. This creates a vicious circle where precious foreign exchange reserves are depleted to support the domestic currency, and this forex reserve depletion - combined with a deteriorating trade balance - puts further pressure on the currency. Embattled nations are often forced to take stringent measures to support the currency, such as raising interest rates and curbing currency outflows.


A country can reduce its current account deficit by increasing the value of its exports relative to the value of imports. It can place restrictions on imports, such as tariffs or quotas, or it can emphasize policies that promote exports, such as import substitution industrialization or policies that improve domestic companies' global competitiveness. The country can also use monetary policy to improve the domestic currency’s valuation relative to other currencies through devaluation, since this makes a country’s exports less expensive.

A country can reduce its current account deficit by increasing the value of its exports relative to the value of imports. It can place restrictions on imports, such as tariffs or quotas, or it can emphasize policies that promote exports, such as import substitution industrialization or policies that improve domestic companies' global competitiveness. The country can also use monetary policy to improve the domestic currency’s valuation relative to other currencies through devaluation, since this makes a country’s exports less expensive.


Read more: Current Account http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currentaccount.asp#ixzz4ZoafkWvk
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[Primator]

A razao principal da intervencao em Novembro 2013 foi para evitar um cenario de deflacao e relancar a economic

Forecast para 2017/2018:

taxa de crescimento to PIB 2.8%
inflacao acima dos 2% (target to CNB)
taxa de desemprego abaixo dos 4% (mais baixa da europa)
superavite orcamentais e divida/pib abaixo dos 40%
subida da taxa de juro de referencia

What is the CNB’s exchange rate commitment?

The koruna exchange rate commitment is not a new monetary policy objective, it is just the instrument we have been using to fulfil the inflation target since November 2013 instead of interest rates. At the decision of the CNB Bank Board, the CNB has pledged to “intervene where necessary in the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna so as to maintain the exchange rate close to CZK 27 to the euro.”

http://www.cnb.cz/en/faq/the_exchange_rate_commitment.html#1