Petróleo / Crude / Oil / Natural Gas - Tópico Principal

[tommy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-01/shale-industry-job-cuts-just-one-hurdle-to-a-rebound

Since peaking at about 536,000 in September 2014, the number of U.S. workers classified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as working for "oil and gas extraction" firms or the companies that support them had dropped by February to about 417,000. Data for the support workers lags that for those who work directly for oil and gas companies. Based on the broader decline in what the BLS calls the mining-support sector, though, the upstream oil industry is probably down to less than 410,000 by now.
Besides the pain for all involved, these losses raise an important question: If an oil price rally gets going, will the U.S. shale industry be able to ramp up production quickly again? After all, when people get fired, they may well move away or get another job.
...
You can see that the rig count has always been a lot more volatile than head count. In the past couple of big oil downturns, in the late 1990s and in 2008, the industry's payrolls fell by about 15 to 20 percent versus much sharper drops in the rig count. On that basis, the current decline is, so far, a bit deeper but still broadly comparable.
...
One reason employers can do this, especially on the core extraction side, is higher productivity. As an industry weighed down by debt focuses on maximizing output as efficiently as possible, oil and gas production per employee has spiked back to levels last seen more than a decade ago.
...

[jeab]

gostei

[Incognitus]

* Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output: sources

[itg00022289]

* Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output: sources

isso, a ser real, terá impacto a sério no preço do crude

[tommy]

* Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output: sources

isso, a ser real, terá impacto a sério no preço do crude

Arábia Saudita entrar num acordo com o Irão? E esse acordo durar?
Pago para ver... 

[itg00022289]

* Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output: sources

isso, a ser real, terá impacto a sério no preço do crude

Arábia Saudita entrar num acordo com o Irão? E esse acordo durar?
Pago para ver... 

Pois, possivelmente o Irão não aceitará.
Tiveram anos e anos fora do mercado e agora que entraram já lhe querem impor limites às suas vendas

Iran Is Unlikely To Accept Saudi Oil Cut Offer: Bloomberg Analyst

Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee released a quick analysis moments ago in which he explains "why Iran is unlikely to accept the Saudi oil cut offer."

According to the note, Iran has little incentive to accept Saudi Arabia’s offer to roll back output to levels seen early this year in return for freezing supply. Lee points out that such a deal would require sacrifice from Iran, but not from Saudi Arabia.

Furthermore, Saudi output is currently near seasonal high and usually falls during 4Q anyway, as domestic demand eases with lower temperatures. This is shown in the chart below. Note that even Reuters admitted that its "first source did not say by how much Riyadh would cut if Iran agreed to freeze."  Indeed, in this context even a 100Kbbls is a "reduction."

Finally, Lee points out that Iran would have to shelve plans to boost output to 4m b/d by March vs 3.62m in August. It would also have to mothball much of its recently proposed capacity expansion projects, something which is very unlikely considering Tehran is already far ahead in contractual negotiations with infrastructure providers.

[pedferre]

* Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output: sources

isso, a ser real, terá impacto a sério no preço do crude

Arábia Saudita entrar num acordo com o Irão? E esse acordo durar?
Pago para ver... 

É possível porque embora estejam em lados opostos da guerra no Iemen e na Síria, o preço do petróleo baixo afeta os dois, até mais os sauditas porque os iranianos já estão habituados a viver na penúria.

[Reg]

Irao  e arabia saudita ja  estao habituados  guerra e guerrae Negocios a parte com OPEP

o crude usado compra das armas  dos dois lados

[tommy]

Grande crónica, gosto da parte em que ele simula um discurso de um membro da arábia saudita ahahha 

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-09-25/saudis-accepting-output-deal-in-algiers-is-just-a-dream

Saudis Announce Oil Deal (In Your Dreams)
By Julian Lee
Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg
Julian Lee


Sep 25, 2016 3:00 AM EDT

Oil prices are low, and producers are hurting. Iraq is the latest OPEC nation to publicly say next week's meeting in Algeria can conclude with steps to tackle a global supply glut and raise prices. Without the Saudis on board, that is no more than a dream.

For a meaningful impact, any agreement would need to remove crude from the market, not just freeze production. Algeria's Noureddine Boutarfa puts the size of the cut needed at 1 million barrels a day.
Awash in Oil
Hopes for a production freeze, or reversal, in Algiers look faint given that some big producers are pumping out supply either at or near record levels.
Source: Bloomberg
NOTE: The figure for Iran is its highest post-revolution production. Output briefly exceeded 6 million barrels a day in 1976-77.

Saudi Arabia would have to bear the brunt of any reduction: it's the biggest producer in the group, it's increased supply by a million barrels a day in the past two years, and a decent-sized cohort will either seek to be excused from cutting or want to raise output to restore lost volumes.

Were it to implement a meaningful cutback, it would be resuming the swing producer role it abandoned in Nov. 2014.

Oil production may need to be cut by

1 million b/d

Is that likely? Let's not hold our breath.

True, like producers everywhere, the kingdom has been hit hard by the fall in oil prices. It's burning through its foreign reserves at a furious rate and cost-cutting may lead it to cancel $20 billion worth of projects. It has a clear incentive to act to lift oil prices. But for Saudi Arabia this was never about short-term income.
Burning Through Reserves
Saudi Arabia is spending $9 billion a month of foreign reserves - 1 1/2 times as much as in 2008-2009.
Source: Bloomberg

To make such a volte face, it will have to do one of two things. It could claim that supply and demand are now in balance, and it's time for OPEC to manage production again and boost prices. That would stretch the limits of credibility when OPEC's just published forecasts that rebalancing won't happen until the second half of next year.

Or it could admit to its fellow OPEC members that it had got it wrong.

You can just picture the scene in Algiers:

    Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid al-Falih (rising to his feet): Gentlemen, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia now realizes that refusing to cut our production to support oil prices in Nov. 2014 was a mistake.

    Sharp intakes of breath from the other delegates in the room

    Al-Falih: We were wrong to believe that allowing the price to fall would quickly bring an end to growth in U.S. shale oil production and the cancellation of projects to develop new high-cost reserves.

    Widespread nodding of heads

    Al-Falih (aside, audible only to his team): Even though that is exactly what has happened.

    Al-Falih (speaking to the delegates again): We recognize that our decision has cost you all billions of dollars in lost revenue and pushed some of your countries close to collapse. Sorry for that.

    As a token of our humility, we will cut our output by a million barrels a day, while you all go on producing as much as you can, raising your output where possible.

    We won't try to follow a policy that seeks to preserve a market for our oil in an increasingly challenging environment, where future demand for the one commodity on which we all depend will be undermined by a surge in rival production, while improvements in energy efficiency and growing environmental concerns shrink the market for oil.

    Yes, oil will remain an important fuel for the next 20 or 30 years -- which will be more than enough for many of you who have limited reserves -- but which is a mere blink of an eye for the rest of us.

    No longer will we take a long-term view of oil supply and demand. Instead, like everybody else, we will focus only on the next six months and hope the future takes care of itself.

    In short, we will bury our heads in the sand -- after all, we have plenty of that too.

    Al-Fahli sits down amid stunned silence

Somehow, I just can't see it happening. Hopes that a deal will be struck got a lift at the end of last week from rumors about offers the Saudis made to Iran. The reality is that these are no more than words in the wind.

[Incognitus]

* OPEC DISCUSSING CUTS OF 200,000 TO 700,000 BARRELS A DAY

[itg00022289]

* OPEC DISCUSSING CUTS OF 200,000 TO 700,000 BARRELS A DAY

disparou tudo ligado ao petroleo !!

[Incognitus]

* ALGIERS - IRAN'S OIL MINISTER SAYS OPEC FINALLY REACHED CONSENSUS AFTER MORE THAN TWO YEARS TO MANAGE MARKET - SHANA

[Vanilla-Swap]

O governo que se prepare para tirar os impostos sobre os combustíveis dado que o petróleo vai subir bem.

[Castelbranco]

muita gente a olhar esta figura como um dado adquirido, pois eu cada vez suspeito mais desse possível cabeça e ombros, no volume nota-se que as ovelhas são muitas e já andam por ali desde maio/junho, será que ainda não comeram a erva toda ao homem?

[jlongo]

O governo que se prepare para tirar os impostos sobre os combustíveis dado que o petróleo vai subir bem.

O governo vai fazer de conta que nada acontece e assobiar para o lado... e dizer que está tudo bem.

JL

[Castelbranco]

vamos lá a ver se  aquilo que eu disse no dia 7 é verdade ou mentira

[jlongo]

Para ajudar á festa...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/putin-says-russia-ready-to-freeze-or-even-cut-output-with-opec

JL

[Castelbranco]

Para ajudar á festa...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/putin-says-russia-ready-to-freeze-or-even-cut-output-with-opec

JL

mas á qual festa? a de cima ou a de baixo?

[meopeace]

Revolução na indústria automóvel?
Alemanha quer proibir carros a gasolina e gasóleo.

A Alemanha pretende impedir a venda de carros novos a gasolina e Diesel a partir de 2030. Segundo o “Der Spiegel”, o parlamento alemão aprovou um projeto lei que pretende impedir a comercialização de modelos a combustão, a gasolina e Diesel.

O documento pretende incentivar outros países membros da União Europeia, de modo a que haja um consenso em relação aos incentivos fiscais apenas para veículos elétricos, assim como os alimentados a hidrogénio, a partir de 2030.

O parlamentar do partido Greens, Oliver Krischer, é peremptório: “Se o acordo de Paris, para reduzir as emissões de poluentes e o aquecimento global, for levado a sério, não há como serem permitidos carros novos com motor a combustão nas estradas depois de 2030.”

O problema – especialmente para a Alemanha – é que se uma proposta para venda apenas de carros elétricos fôr aprovada, o impacto na indústria será enorme, já que milhares de postos de trabalho serão cortados no país. O impacto será maior nos fornecedores do que nos construtores, além de toda a transformação que isto implica para o setor da manutenção e reparação automóvel.

Com as regras a endurecerem, as marcas alemãs já estão a mexer-se para responder às medidas em estudo. Exemplo disso é a BMW, com o elétrico i3 e o híbrido i8.

Já a Mercedes-Benz anunciou a criação de uma submarca dedicada exclusivamente a veículos elétricos, a EQ, além de veículos alimentados a hidrogénio já para 2018.

Também a Volkswagen, após o escândalo do “dieselgate”, de emissões fraudulentas, passará a investir mais em veículos verdes, projetando vender entre dois a três milhões de carros 100 por cento elétricos em 2025.

http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/motores/diesel/alemanha-quer-proibir-carros-a-gasolina-e-gasoleo



A próxima década parece ser a transição para o inicio do fim dos veículos com motores de combustão interna a hidrocarbonetos.
Também já se trabalha na concepção de veículos pesados e aviões movidos a electricidade...
Os transportes significam 30% a 40% o consumo mundial de petróleo, não é?

   

[Incognitus]

Mais ainda, uns 3/4s se incluirmos heating oil.

O petróleo e toda a cadeia de valor associada vai ser bastante fustigado a longo prazo.

Mas aviões comerciais a electricidade são para já improváveis.