Citação de: Incognitus em 2012-09-13 17:47:29O que começou como uma medida de excepção para evitar um colapso sistémico, agora é usado rotineiramente para alterar os preços dos activos ...o que é que deverá subir com esta medida? isto praticamente garante o breakout no ouro, sp500 etc não?
O que começou como uma medida de excepção para evitar um colapso sistémico, agora é usado rotineiramente para alterar os preços dos activos ...
Citação de: rs_trader em 2012-09-05 14:49:34Eu por acaso acho que não vão lançar, a não ser que o relatorio do emprego de sexta-feira seja fraco ou o mercado caia até dia 13, no entanto, estes gajos não costumam falhar muito nas previsões......CitarFed poised to launch QE3 QE3 likely to focus on buying mortgage-backed securities Fed officials most concerned by lack of progress on reducing unemployment Asset purchases will have little impact on long rates or economic growthIt now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to be primarily focused on buying mortgagebacked securities, with purchases of longer-term Treasury securities playing a more minor role. Our best guess is that the Fed will pledge to buy at least $500bn of assets. In a departure from QE1 and QE2, however, the Fed may announce a more open-ended programme, with purchases of at least $50bn per month until it decides that sufficient progress has been made in reducing the unemployment rate.Fonte: Capital EconomicsO chief economist da GS tambem diz que com estes numeros do emprego e quase certo QE3 para a semana. Eu continuo a duvidar...... Porque e que a FED e o BCE haveriam de gastar as balas ao mesmo tempo?
Eu por acaso acho que não vão lançar, a não ser que o relatorio do emprego de sexta-feira seja fraco ou o mercado caia até dia 13, no entanto, estes gajos não costumam falhar muito nas previsões......CitarFed poised to launch QE3 QE3 likely to focus on buying mortgage-backed securities Fed officials most concerned by lack of progress on reducing unemployment Asset purchases will have little impact on long rates or economic growthIt now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to be primarily focused on buying mortgagebacked securities, with purchases of longer-term Treasury securities playing a more minor role. Our best guess is that the Fed will pledge to buy at least $500bn of assets. In a departure from QE1 and QE2, however, the Fed may announce a more open-ended programme, with purchases of at least $50bn per month until it decides that sufficient progress has been made in reducing the unemployment rate.Fonte: Capital Economics
Fed poised to launch QE3 QE3 likely to focus on buying mortgage-backed securities Fed officials most concerned by lack of progress on reducing unemployment Asset purchases will have little impact on long rates or economic growthIt now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to be primarily focused on buying mortgagebacked securities, with purchases of longer-term Treasury securities playing a more minor role. Our best guess is that the Fed will pledge to buy at least $500bn of assets. In a departure from QE1 and QE2, however, the Fed may announce a more open-ended programme, with purchases of at least $50bn per month until it decides that sufficient progress has been made in reducing the unemployment rate.Fonte: Capital Economics
The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero until mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to its communications strategy, most of which involved shifting the focus of policy away from fixed calendar dates and stressing more that future policy action will depend on how economic conditions develop, particularly the unemployment rate. The $40bn of MBS purchases per month is a bit smaller than we would have expected, since that works out at only $480bn per year. But the Fed pledged to continue those purchases until it judges that the outlook for the labour market has improved substantially. That is deliberately vague but, if we assume that it means until the unemployment rate gets down to 7% and that the Fed's new forecasts will show the unemployment rate won't get down to that level until some time in 2015 (projections released at 2pm EST), then the Fed today has effectively pledged to buy $40bn of MBS for three years, which adds up to $1,440bn. That's roughly equivalent to the size of QE1, albeit spread over a much longer time period. As widely expected the Fed extended its conditional commitment to leave rates at near-zero until mid-2015. But in a new twist it added that "a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economy strengthens." This stresses that even when rates begin to rise, the tightening will be more gradual than normal. It addresses Michael Woodford's criticism that the Fed has to demonstrate that it is leaving rates very low because its reaction function has changed, not just because it has become more pessimistic about the economic outlook. Overall, the Fed has done all the markets were asking for. The problem is that we doubt it will be enough to get the economy on the right track. It's only a matter of time before speculation begins as to when the Fed will raise its purchases from $40bn a month.Capital Economics
qual eh o maximo no S&P? devemos estar a chegar la 1500 e tal
Agora existe uma oportunidade por ano, porque todos os anos algum dos bancos centrais se lembra de imprimir um camião de dinheiro para levar os mercados para cima.
O LTRO 2, portanto. Não que o mercado não encontre sempre um fundo. Mas desde 2008 todos os fundos são feitos por bancos centrais. A grande diferença hoje foi fazerem isto num topo.
Normalmente a FED faz a coisa quando não está tudo porreiro. Qual será o plano agora? Se agora os números piorarem, imprimem AINDA mais em cima dos 2 programas que já têm a andar?
É porreiro ser-se um país que basicamente pode imprimir a quase totalidade do déficit orçamental.
