Mercado em TEMPO REAL - Notícias, rumores, análises, chat.

[Smog]

Costa caiu e a bolsa portuguesa também. Não deve ter afetado ninguém....
Será a vez do PSD? Que fará o povo? Entretanto o médio oriente e a Ucrânia seguem a ferro e fogo.
Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

[Kaspov]

Se Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

Obviamente que não...  Portugal é um país muito pequenino para fazer qualquer diferença... mas as nossas catastróficas políticas de «Transição Energética» e «Ação Climática» sim, farão grande diferença para nós e para quaisquer outros loucos (se os houver) que as queiram adoptar...   

[Kaspov]

As dívidas e os respectivos juros em grande crescimento...   


«Endgame: Interest On US Debt Skyrockets Above $1 Trillion For The First Time Ever

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Nov 08, 2023 - 10:20 PM


Back in July, when we last looked at the unprecedented horror show that is the US budget deficit - and concluded correctly, long before the Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement,  that debt issuance was about to explode and yields would soar - we warned that the debt Rubicon was about to be crossed and "US Debt Interest Payments Are About To Hit $1 Trillion."

Fast forward to today when the endgame has apparently arrived: according to the Treasury's own calculations, total interest is now over $1 trillion (or $1.027 trillion to be precise).

We calculated this by multiplying the average interest rate on marketable US Treasury debt (which according to the Treasury is 3.096% as of Oct 31) by the $26.003 trillion in marketable US debt (as of Oct 31) which nets off to $805 billion, and adding to this non-marketable debt interest (which as of Oct 31 was 2.884% multiplied by the amount of non-marketable debt which is $7.696 trillion) and which in turn is an additional $222 billion in interest. Add across and you get $1.027 trillion.

Naturally, this calculation of estimated real-time interest costs - which is entirely based on Treasury data - is different than what the Treasury actually paid. Interest costs in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ultimately totaled $879.3 billion, up from $717.6 billion the previous year and about 14% of total outlays, however that number is merely lagging what the pro forma print currently is, and will inevitably catch up to it, and then lag on the other side even as pro forma interest payment start dropping (once interest rates plunge after the next QE/YCC is launched).

Fans of exponential functions, we got you covered: the unprecedented surge in both interest rates and interest expense in the past two years means that total US interest has doubled since April 2022 and that's with the inherent lag in interest catch up - as a reminder, the vast majority of 5, 7, 10 and 30 year debt is still locked in at much lower interest rates, and as such, rates will continue to rise as all of the existing debt rolls into much higher rates over the coming years.

Looking ahead, the staggering surge in both yields and total long-term Treasuries in recent months confirms the government will continue to face an escalating interest bill. As a reminder, we were the first to point out that it took just one month after US federal debt first rose above $33 trillion for the first time, to spike by another $600 billion...

... bringing the total to $33.6 trillion, more than the combined GDPs of China, Japan, Germany, and India.

And just to show you how terrifying it is about to get, BofA's Michael Hartnett notes that "the CBO projects that US government debt will rise by $20 trillion next 10 years, or $5.2 billion every day or $218 million every hour!"

Some more context: total world debt (government, corporate & household) hit a record $227tn in Q1’23, double from $110tn in 2007 & $0.5tn in 1952.

And then there was this warning from the TBAC which very tongue-in-cheek said that "Interest rate expense, as % of GDP, is likely to rise over the medium term", and also over every other term.

As Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore concludes, the worsening metrics may "reignite debate about the US fiscal path amid heavy borrowing from Washington. That dynamic has already helped drive up bond yields, threatened the return of the so-called bond vigilantes and led Fitch Ratings to downgrade US government debt in August."

An even more damning conclusion comes from Hartnett, Fiscal excess in the 2020s is adding to already high levels of government debt; until policy makers address the trajectory of government debt, investors are likely to worry that asset-bearish solutions to indebtedness such as inflation, default, currency debasement, are set to be pursued; but as likely central banks may simply bail out governments in coming years via QE & the introduction of YCC (policies that would be v US dollar negative).

Finally, as we explained yesterday (see "How Treasury Averted A Bond Market "Earthquake" In The Last Second: What Everyone Missed In The TBAC's Remarkable Refunding Presentation"), the US treasury market was this close to collapse as recently as last week, and if it hadn't been for some clever language and sleight-of-forward-guidance by the Treasury, in the latest TBAC statement, the endgame for US debt would now be in play. For now, however, it has been merely delayed.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/endgame-interest-us-debt-skyrockets-above-1-trillion-first-time-ever

[Smog]

Se Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

Obviamente que não...  Portugal é um país muito pequenino para fazer qualquer diferença... mas as nossas catastróficas políticas de «Transição Energética» e «Ação Climática» sim, farão grande diferença para nós e para quaisquer outros loucos (se os houver) que as queiram adoptar...   

Sempre o ministério na berlinda. Assim foi com Socrates e agora com Costa. O Ambiente é terreno fertil de negociatas.... vida Triste!

[Kaspov]

Se Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

Obviamente que não...  Portugal é um país muito pequenino para fazer qualquer diferença... mas as nossas catastróficas políticas de «Transição Energética» e «Ação Climática» sim, farão grande diferença para nós e para quaisquer outros loucos (se os houver) que as queiram adoptar...   

Sempre o ministério na berlinda. Assim foi com Socrates e agora com Costa. O Ambiente é terreno fertil de negociatas.... vida Triste!

Pois, os que proclamam "defender o ambiente", normalmente só defendem os seus próprios interesses + ou - obscuros...   

[Kaspov]

Acerca do progressivo falhanço das energias ditas "verdes":


«Germany To Bail Out Siemens’ Struggling Wind Turbine Division

By ZeroHedge - Nov 10, 2023, 3:00 PM CST

    Siemens Energy, facing significant losses, is in talks for up to 15 billion euros in guarantees, with the German state covering 80% of the initial funding.
    Siemens AG shares have plummeted over 70% since mid-June, with the company abandoning its 2023 profit outlook due to challenges in its wind turbine unit.
    The UK government is set to offer higher subsidies for offshore wind projects, following a previous auction where developers backed out due to low pricing, indicating growing financial strains in the renewable energy sector.

Join Our Community
Turbine

Reuters reports the German government, Siemens AG, and other parties will provide billions of euros in project-related guarantees to support Siemens AG's struggling wind turbine division. This financial assistance comes just weeks after the company warned about mounting losses amid a meltdown across wind and solar industries.

Three people familiar with the talks said that Siemens Energy's top shareholder, Siemens AG, with a 25.1% stake, is prepared to provide some guarantees. Details are still scant, and nothing has been decided, as an agreement needs to be formally drawn up and supported by all stakeholders.

Last month, Reuters said Siemens Energy was discussing state guarantees with the German government.

Here's more on the report:

As a result, Siemens Energy fears it will struggle to secure guarantees from banks, and has approached the government and Siemens to obtain a guarantee framework, business news weekly WirtschaftsWoche said.

The weekly, which first reported the talks along with Spiegel magazine, said Siemens Energy is seeking up to 15 billion euros in guarantees.

The German state would assume liability for 80% of an initial 10 billion euro funding tranche, while banks would be liable for the remaining 20%, WirtschaftsWoche said.

A Siemens AG spokesperson said the company remained in "very constructive talks to define the best possible solution in the interests of all parties involved."

Siemens Energy shares in Germany have crashed more than 70% since mid-June as it has abandoned its 2023 profit outlook after a review of its wind turbine unit revealed a billion euro problem. Shares were up 5% on Reuters' report today. 

Meanwhile, a financial crisis continues to accelerate across the wind industry, with the world's largest offshore wind farm developer, Ørsted, pulling out of major US projects due to soaring inflation costs and a high-rate environment. And the renewable energy meltdown in wind has spread to solar as several solar power company stocks crashed on sliding demand.

And so, hot on the heels of Germany's bailout of Siemens, Bloomberg reports that the UK government is preparing to offer significantly higher subsidies for new offshore wind farms to get the country’s clean-power strategy back on track after developers shunned a previous auction, because the price was too low for offshore wind to be viable.

Denmark’s Orsted A/S, the world’s largest offshore wind builder, will decide by December whether to proceed with a UK development, while Sweden’s Vattenfall AB shelved a giant project off the English coast earlier this year in response to soaring costs.

While higher subsidies in the next auction round, known as AR6, may well reinvigorate offshore wind development, it will likely feed through to increased electricity costs for consumers still burdened with sky-high bills in the wake of last year’s energy crisis.

The energy transition to renewables across the Western world is cracking. Remember, the Biden Administration's Inflation Reduction Act was all about 'sustainable' wind power... Time for another bailout?

By Zerohedge.com»


https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Wind-Power/Germany-To-Bail-Out-Siemens-Struggling-Wind-Turbine-Division.html

[Kaspov]

«cocoa prices nearly doubled over the past 12 months»


Eu por acaso já tinha reparado q os chocolates estão cada vez + caros...   



«Cocoa "mayhem" and trend following

akrainer's Photo

by akrainer

Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023 - 13:03

Few investors pay attention to cocoa prices, but starting in June, cocoa has been in the news quite a bit. The reason: cocoa prices nearly doubled over the past 12 months. The higher they rose, the more they caught the attention of traders and the inevitable expert commentariat.. Here we have another confirmation that the price always leads the narrative, not the other way around.

Earlier this month, ZeroHedge, which doesn’t often post articles about soft commodities ran an article titled, “Cocoa Mayhem Sends Prices to $4,000 Per Ton, Highest Since 1978.” It mentions the poor cocoa crops in West Africa, low crop yields in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the El-Nino related weather disruptions that could further damage cocoa production, and even the inflation-driven price rises in consumer markets.
Trend followers have been long since 2022

But long before this was being discussed, and without needing to know anything at all about the crops or about El Nino, trend followers had already boarded this ride. Here’s how I-System strategies traded Cocoa over the last (nearly) five years (their performance is shown in terms of USD per Metric Ton gained or lost trading cocoa futures):

 

 

This is a busy chart, but it is instructive as it also tells the story about trend following. The top chart shows cocoa prices, overlaid with the curve showing our net exposure (how many of our 12 cocoa strategies were long or short on the scale of -12 [fully short] to +12 [fully long]).

Why do we use 12 strategies? It could be fewer, or more, but the answer is that while we formulate strategies on past data, we’ve no way to know how well any one strategy might perform in the future. By diversifying our decision making among multiple strategies that are similar but different, we reduce the likelihood of disappointments (as with the strategy shown in red) and enhance the probability of positive performance.
The testing of discipline, patience…

During four full years, cocoa prices fluctuated sideways, in a horizontal range around $2,500/MT and our strategies flatlined. In the second half of 2021 they went into a painful drawdown that lasted almost a full year before staging a gradual recovery. Here again we see that large-scale price events (LSPEs) unfold as trends that span long periods of time which is why systematic trend following reliably captures windfalls from such events.

But the experience also shows the cost of that performance in terms of risk, drawdowns, discipline and patience which can be considerable in some cases. At its low point, in May 2022, the average strategy was down $713/MT ($7,130 per CSCE contract). With Friday’s closing (17 Nov. 2023), it was up $593. So was it even trading Cocoa worth the trouble at all? Yes, under two conditions: (1) if your business entails exposure to coca prices and you need to hedge against unfavorable price changes or (2) for portfolio diversification purposes.
Diversification: the only free lunch

For a well diversified portfolio, any one market should only represent a relatively small risk allocation. Diversification is the only free lunch in investment speculation, so it is always worth considering it whenever possible, even accepting the fact that some markets will test our patience (in fact, this is still the case with some investors’ favorites, Gold and Silver, for example). Markets do move in trends but we have no way of telling when such events might unfold, how long they would last, or how high (or how low) they might reach.

In terms of discipline, which primarily refers to the risk management, the above chart also provides some guidance in terms of gauging our risk appetite: if the average strategy could cause a $713/MT draw-down on cocoa ($7,130 per contract), what part of our total portfolio risk should that sum represent? If that sum is small enough, say 1% or 2% of the total portfolio, we need not suffer any anxiety even from long, painful drawdowns. Unfortunately, this is quite out of range of most individual investors.

However, risk can be better fine-tuned with smaller-denominated mini-contracts, CFDs and even ETFs which provide a valid proxy for exposure to cocoa prices. Adding markets like cocoa, sugar, coffee and other commodities to your portfolio should be considered also in view of the commodity super-cycle scenario which could unfold over the next decade or two. Thanks to trend following, investors can capture windfalls from future LSPEs without needing any special expertise in those markets, other than their price histories.

For investors who are so inclined, TrendCompass reports offer real time trend following signals covering over 200 different financial and commodity markets. For more information, and how to subscribe, please check I-System Trend Following | TrendCompass. One month’s ‘test drive’ is always free of charge with no strings of any sort attached.
Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-11-21/cocoa-mayhem-and-trend-following

[Kaspov]

O pesadelo esquerdista-"ambientalista" (oxalá seja derrotado...  ) em todo o seu esplendor:


«Coming Soon: Your Travel Will Be Restricted By Personal Carbon Allowances

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Sunday, Nov 26, 2023 - 01:10 PM


Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,
“Experts suggest” your standard of living be reduced by over 85%

A report on the future of travel and tourism, co-authored by a travel agency called Intrepid Travel and The Future Labs Institute, posits a future deeply impacted by climate change and restrictions on tourist travel to combat it.

“A Sustainable Future for Travel”, warns of “travel extinction”, where some areas suffer such radical climate change that all tourism there ceases, and “personal carbon allowances” that will restrict how often one is permitted travel.

From the report (pardon the length, emphasis added):

    “Carbon Passports

    A personal carbon emissions limit will become the new normal as policy and people’s values drive an era of great change.

    As demonstrated by a worldwide tourism boom, the frequency at which we can fly is once again seemingly unlimited.

    Conscience and budgets permitting, we feel free to hop on planes from one place to the next. But this will change. ‘On our current trajectory, we can expect a pushback against the frequency with which individuals can travel, with carbon passports set to change the tourism landscape,’ says Raymond [Martin Raymond, Future Laboratories co-founder]

    Personal carbon allowances could help curb carbon emissions and lower travel’s overall footprint.

    These allowances will manifest as passports that force people to ration their carbon in line with the global carbon budget, which is 750bn tonnes until 2050.

    By 2040, we can expect to see limitations imposed on the amount of travel that is permitted each year.

    Experts suggest that individuals should currently limit their carbon emissions to 2.3 tonnes each year – the equivalent of taking a round-trip from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. However, the average carbon footprint in the US is 16 tonnes per person per year, 15 tonnes in Australia and 11.7 tonnes in the UK. This is in stark contrast to where we may find ourselves in the future, with 2040’s travellers forced to forgo the horizon-expanding experiences so readily embraced by today’s tourists”

For all practical purposes, your carbon emissions will line up with your energy usage, give or take a relatively narrow band of efficiencies (unless we have some kind of clean energy breakthrough, and the only viable one we have, nuclear, is not considered clean energy by the climate cult).

Said differently: Your standard of living is your energy usage. Reducing a society’s energy usage is the same as reducing its living standards.

With this in mind, let’s look at the numbers cited by the Sustainable Future for Travel report:

    “Experts suggest that individuals should currently limit their carbon emissions to 2.3 tonnes each year.”

The table below lays out exactly how much the standard of living for the residents of each country will have to be reduced in order to meet the recommended carbon quota set by unelected experts. This is the level of “degrowth” it will take to satisfy the objectives of climate alarmists relying on unfalsifiable premises, arbitrary computer models, and who are deliberately ignoring and suppressing countervailing data.

How serious are our leaders and policymakers about reducing the citizenry’s living standards by upwards of 85%?

Here is Canada’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, rather blithely confirming that the government will limit natural gas usage in order to fight climate change:

    Reporter: There will be limitations on how much natural gas you can use in the winter?

    Guilbeault: Yes, absolutely, that’s what fighting climate change looks like.

Full clip:
Why are we talking about carbon passports in the section on Central Bank Digital Currencies?

(Today’s post is an excerpt from the “Eye on Evilcoin” section of this month’s Bitcoin Capitalist macro overview).

Because we think CBDCs will invariably launch as, or morph into, personal carbon footprint quotas.

Right now, what we call “the fiat money system” uses debt for money. That’s no longer sustainable, so what we’re expecting is an attempt to switch what we loosely identify as “money”, away from symbolic tokens backed by debt, to social credit scores, backed by personal carbon footprint quotas.

Expanding on this theme, probably, is another report from Future Labs on “Neo-Collectivism”, which may give us a hint at how the policymakers of late stage globalism will seek to preempt free markets and universal human rights with a “we’re all in this together” retread of what is essentially, communism:

    “Society is facing a mass re-organisation. United by values of empathy and community, consumers are shunning individualism in favour of alliances that are decentralising industries and redistributing power at scale”

LS:N Global and Future Laboratories seem like a wannabe World Economic Forum. Lots of pronouns on the “Team” page, and leaning heavily into that euphemistic WEF-speak that makes technocratic communism sound benign and fashionable.

I ended up shelling out £265 to buy the Neo-Collectivist Megatrend report (a 40 page PDF) and what I found in there was along the lines of what one might expect, but it was alarming all the same.

In the next post to this one, we’ll dive into it and find out just how the “Zalpha Generation” is poised to usher us into an era of Systemic Endemic Socialism.

*  *  *

My forthcoming ebook The CBDC Survival Guide will give you the tools and the knowledge to navigate coming era of Monetary Apartheid. Bombthrower subscribers will get free when it drops, sign up today.

If you’re curious about The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter I will be closing it off to new subscribers soon. I explain why to Bombthrower subscribers. Follow me on Nostr, or Twitter.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coming-soon-your-travel-will-be-restricted-personal-carbon-allowances

[Kaspov]

Felizmente ainda há quem se oponha...


«A climate sceptic?

Another topic that had made media headlines was Mr Milei's apparent declaration of himself as a climate change "sceptic", that is, someone who denies the role of humans in global warming.
Supporters of Argentine presidential candidate for the La Libertad Avanza alliance Javier Milei celebrate after polls closed during the presidential election runoff outside the party headquarters in Buenos Aires on November 19, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Mr Milei's rise from relative unknown to darling of the masses has been swift

"I do not deny climate change. What I am saying is that there is a temperature cycle in the history of the Earth... Therefore, all those policies that blame humans for climate change are false," Mr Milei said during a presidential debate last month, causing much commentary and criticism.

In his proposed government programme, one of the numerous ministries he had said he planned to axe would be the existing environment ministry.

Such apparent climate scepticism risked putting Mr Milei sharply out of tune with an international majority of governments and leaders who plan to gather at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai soon to seek urgent solutions to the problems of climate change and global warming.»


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67509691

[Smog]

Se Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

Obviamente que não...  Portugal é um país muito pequenino para fazer qualquer diferença... mas as nossas catastróficas políticas de «Transição Energética» e «Ação Climática» sim, farão grande diferença para nós e para quaisquer outros loucos (se os houver) que as queiram adoptar...   

Sempre o ministério na berlinda. Assim foi com Socrates e agora com Costa. O Ambiente é terreno fertil de negociatas.... vida Triste!

Pois, os que proclamam "defender o ambiente", normalmente só defendem os seus próprios interesses + ou - obscuros...   

é preciso viver a ética. nao enunciá-la.

[Kaspov]

Se Costa fará diferença no mundo global?

Obviamente que não...  Portugal é um país muito pequenino para fazer qualquer diferença... mas as nossas catastróficas políticas de «Transição Energética» e «Ação Climática» sim, farão grande diferença para nós e para quaisquer outros loucos (se os houver) que as queiram adoptar...   

Sempre o ministério na berlinda. Assim foi com Socrates e agora com Costa. O Ambiente é terreno fertil de negociatas.... vida Triste!

Pois, os que proclamam "defender o ambiente", normalmente só defendem os seus próprios interesses + ou - obscuros...   

é preciso viver a ética. nao enunciá-la.

Sim, de acordo!   

[vbm]

Discordo.
Deve enunciar-se a ética.

[Kaspov]

Discordo.
Deve enunciar-se a ética.

Sim, tb é verdade!   

[Kaspov]

Morreu um dos mais famosos investidores de sempre, um verdadeiro sábio:


«Charlie Munger Dead At 99

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023 - 09:01 PM


Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported on Tuesday that Charlie Munger has died at the age of 99.

According to the family, he passed peacefully this morning at a California hospital. He would have been 100 on January 1st.

"Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie’s inspiration, wisdom and participation," said Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, in a statement.

Munger, in addition to Berkshire's Vice Chairman, was a member of the Costco board, chairman and publisher of the Daily Journal Corp, a philanthropist and an architect. His fortune was estimated at $2.3 billion earlier this year (while Buffett's is estimated at around $100 billion).

Munger dropped out of college in 1943 to join WWII, serving in the US Army Air Corps. Upon his return to the states, he applied himself - taking graduate courses without an undergraduate degree, after which he was eventually accepted into Harvard Law School. He began his career at Wright & Garrett, making $3,300 per year.

Buffett and Munger met in 1959, after Munger returned to Obama following military service at the age of 35 in order to close his late father's legal practice - after his eight-year marriage ended in divorce which left him in dire financial straits because his wife received the majority of their assets.

Munger had also lost his son at the age of 9 to leukemia.

    A year after his divorce, Munger faced a devastating blow when his 8-year-old son Teddy was diagnosed with leukemia. In an era devoid of medical insurance and effective treatments for the disease, Munger shouldered the medical expenses while grappling with the emotional turmoil of his son’s illness. He juggled his responsibilities as a father to his other children and his law practice, even as he watched Teddy’s health decline.

    Munger’s friend Rick Guerin recalls the heart-wrenching moments Munger spent at the hospital with Teddy and his solitary walks through Pasadena, California, overwhelmed with grief. Teddy’s death at age 9 left Munger shattered. -Benzinga

And how did Munger later reflect on that period in his life?

"Envy, resentment, revenge and self-pity are disastrous modes of thought," he later said. "Self-pity gets close to paranoia. ... Every mischance in life is an opportunity to behave well and learn. It’s not to be immersed in self-pity but to utilize the blow constructively."

That year he was introduced to the then-29-year-old Buffett by one of Buffett's investment clients, and the two hit it off.

Munger served as chairman and CEO of California-based insurance and investment company Wesco Financial between 1984 and 2011, when Buffett's Berkshire purchased the remaining shares. According to Buffett, Munger convinced him to invest in higher-quality, underpriced companies as opposed to those in distress.

    An early example of the shift was illustrated in 1972 by Munger’s ability to persuade Buffett to sign off on Berkshire’s purchase of See’s Candies for $25 million even though the California candy maker had annual pretax earnings of only about $4 million. It has since produced more than $2 billion in sales for Berkshire. -CNBC

"He weaned me away from the idea of buying very so-so companies at very cheap prices, knowing that there was some small profit in it, and looking for some really wonderful businesses that we could buy in fair prices," Buffett told CNBC in May 2016.

At one point Buffett started calling Munger the "abominable no-man" for his wholesale rejection of potential investments.»


«Charlie Munger’s formula for success is simple and perfect:

- Spend less than you earn
- Invest prudently
- Avoid toxic people and toxic activities
- Defer gratification
- Never stop learning»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/charlie-munger-has-died

[Kaspov]

«Charlie Munger was a 'Renaissance man'

6

Julie Hyman and Stephanie Mikulich
Tue, November 28, 2023 at 10:38 PM GMT
In this article:

BRK-B
+0.35%

Charlie Munger, the longtime business partner of Warren Buffett and the Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B), died on Tuesday at the age of 99.

Smead Capital Management CEO Cole Smead and Annandale Capital Co-Founder George Seay joined Yahoo Finance Live to reflect on Munger's legacy.

Smead said Munger "reinforced time and time again... the idea that here we are on Earth, all we're really doing is learning to learn. He talked about using multiple models in how you think about things. It's an interdisciplinary world that we deal in because it's so complex... you'll rarely find someone like Charlie who wanted to read so much, wanted to learn so much." Smead also noted that Munger "pointed out that you don't do great things in your life. Most of the success in your life is not doing stupid things or what he called ignorance avoidance."

Seay called Munger "super special" and that, in addition to being a "great investor" with Buffett, Munger was a "brilliant attorney... He was kind of a Renaissance man." When it comes to Berkshire Hathaway's future, Seay is not concerned. "I think the future of Berkshire is exceptional," Seay says, adding that he hopes the company is kept together because its "future is bright."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Video Transcript

JULIE HYMAN: Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger has died at the age of 99. The company announcing the news in a press release saying he died this morning at a hospital in California. Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett saying in the release, Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie's inspiration, wisdom, and participation.

For more perspective here, we have Cole Smead, Smead Capital Management CEO, and George Seay, Annandale Capital founder and chairman. Cole, I want to start with you. It looks like George getting set up there. So I'll start with you here. I feel like you were raised on Berkshire Hathaway and sort of the philosophies, the value, investing philosophies of these guys. Is that fair to say? I mean, I think of your father as a value investor who closely followed these. I think of you and your firm as closely following this kind of philosophy. Kind of talk to me about your perspective here.

COLE SMEAD: Yeah. It's a great question. Thanks for having me. I really consider Charlie Munger to be like my patron saint from a worldly wisdom perspective. That's something that Charlie often talked about was worldly wisdom, understanding and studying the ways of the world. And I think what Munger reinforced time and time again is the idea that here we are on Earth, all we're really doing is learning to learn.

He talked about using multiple models in how you think about things. It's an interdisciplinary world that we deal in, because it's so complex. And I just think you'll rarely find someone like Charlie, who wanted to read so much, who wanted to learn so much. I think one of the things that he just kept it simple and is such a unique way. He would make statements-- your prior colleague was commenting on his statements, his one-liners.

But what his one-liners really did is they cut to the heart of the matter and spoke truth all at the same time. Most people usually have two problems with doing what Charlie does. One, they don't know the truth. Second, they don't want to tell other people the truth. And I think that's what Munger is unique opportunity was in society beyond all the, obviously, the personal financial success he had.

And I just-- you know, to your point on what Berkshire has evolved with Charlie, you cannot replace a Charlie Munger in any way, shape, or form, nor do I think you want to. The question for Berkshire will be, how do they have to evolve with the talents and the gifts of the people that they have around them today? Because you can't replace them.

JOSH LIPTON: And George, I want to bring you in here as well and just get your response to this news, George, your reaction to the news of Charlie Munger's passing. And what kind of impact as well. He had on you?

GEORGE SEAY: Yeah. Thanks for having me on. It's a real privilege to get to talk about Charlie Munger. I have a real distinct memory from April 2000 right after the tech bubble started bursting, and Berkshire Hathaway had gone straight down in a straight line about 30% from where it had peaked when they bought General Re.

And I'll never forget me and Franklin Delano, Roosevelt's great grandson, and one of my best friends, who's a hedge fund manager in California managing several billion dollars, we got there at like 5:00 in the morning to go to the annual meeting. And it was the lowest attended annual meeting since then and even before then for many years, because his investment philosophy and style, both Munger and Buffett, were so out of favor. And we got down there on about the fourth row. And I'll never forget watching Warren and Charlie eating their dilly bars and drinking their cherry Cokes, et cetera, et cetera, and having all these 20-something-year-olds go, I made over 100% last year, what's wrong with you, guys? You guys are totally out of step. And you you'll never recover.

And they were so polite to these young people. They were professional, respectful, polite, made a real impact on me on the character of these men and how well they conducted themselves. And being a Texan, I'm really admiring of how blunt Charlie Munger was. He was such a blunt-to-the-point, no-nonsense man. And I feel like that's kind of an old California persona that we're starting to lose people who respond like that. And we Texas love bluntness. So he was super special. And I don't think you can say, enough of that. They're just-- they just don't make them like that anymore.

One more thing that most people forget, Charlie Munger was a brilliant attorney. I mean, he wasn't just a great investor with Buffett, he was a very accomplished attorney. So he was kind of a Renaissance man. He was doing a lot of things.

JULIE HYMAN: And talk to me a little bit more, George, about his legacy. I mean, when you talk about, you know, there aren't a lot of investors like this anymore, but what do you think sort of the lasting legacy of Charlie Munger is in terms of the effect on how people think about investing?

GEORGE SEAY: Yeah. Well, I think he taught people a lot of patience. I mean, he just held Berkshire stock for so long and was very patient in watching an investment thesis play out. And these days, we're in the, you know, 30-second sound bite. And you see in movies images flash before your eyes every couple of seconds. And it's kind of I-want-it-now kind of generation. And so that kind of long-term thinking, which is so wise in investing, people should follow his example and not turn into day traders again or try to rush in and out of investments.

And also, you have to really have a huge amount of gratitude to him and Buffett for creating literally hundreds of thousands of American jobs. I mean, if you look at all the impact Berkshire Hathaway has had on our country and the good of our country and the good of our families around the country and people who need to work, it's just-- you can't overstate it. It's tremendous.

JOSH LIPTON: And Cole, there's a statement here from Warren Buffett as well, saying Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie's inspiration, wisdom, and participation. What do you make of that statement, Cole? And what do you think Munger taught Buffett? How do you think the impact and influence he had on Warren Buffett?

COLE SMEAD: Yeah. Well, there's really-- there's kind of two areas to Berkshire Hathaway. There is, to your colleague's comment earlier, there was the Ben Graham era to Berkshire Hathaway, which was what Buffett had learned from, obviously, his mentor Ben Graham and the idea of triple nets and really buying securities in aggregate that were cheap. And you know, Munger not only helped Buffett focus on the kind of businesseses he wanted to own, but, obviously, the quantity of businesses. He wanted to own.

You know, Munger was quoted for saying, you know, put few eggs in the basket and watch the basket. In other words, the idea that you actually take less risk with fewer investments than you do by taking more, which, as Munger often said, was antithetical to what's taught in business schools even today. And so I think those kind of principles were really the second half and second act of Berkshire Hathaway where Munger was, not only teaching people about how to deal with risk, but then also the quality of businesses he wanted to deal in. The Coca-Colas, for example, that came later. The See's Candy, which they talk voraciously about from their investment in the 1970s, which was a turning point for Berkshire Hathaway at that time.

So I think that's really important. But let me add one more thing. Don't forget that, you know, people want to go out and do great things in their life. And Munger pointed out that you don't do great things in your life. Most of success in your life is not doing stupid things or what he called ignorance avoidance. So you want to have a great marriage, great, don't do stupid things. Practice ignorance avoidance. You want to run a great business, yeah, don't do the stupid things.

And I think removing the negative. It's a negative art that Munger was really trying to have us understand. And by removing that negative, it allows for a lot of positives to come to our life. And again, we're terribly indebted to him for his thinking, because, again, Warren would not say it like that. Charlie said it in a way that connected with you. And what a blessing to us all.

JOSH LIPTON: Don't do stupid things, that's a simple important life lesson. George, I want to end here with you. You know Berkshire well. I'm interested, George, what you think the future of Berkshire looks like.

GEORGE SEAY: I think the future of Berkshire is exceptional. I do think there will be people calling for it to be broken up and pieces sold off once Mr. Buffett passes away. But I hope they keep it all together. It's a very unique American institution really, not just a business, but institution. And it's brought so many blessings to so many different people.

And I think the future is bright. And I think whoever takes over as the CEO, probably the guy who runs the power division, they'll start buying back even more stock. I think they'll buy back gobs of stock. And I think that stock will perform extremely well for a long time to come.

And I want to add to my colleague's comment about quality. Munger really did impact Buffett significantly like that and pulled him away from Ben Graham into growth at a reasonable price and buy great businesses at a fair price kind of mentality. And if only Buffett had bought Costco, you think about how big the investment portfolio have been. He bought it when Munger first bought it.

And also, one other thing that Charlie said that I think was so wise is hang around with the very best people. Don't waste time with people who are toxic, negative, dishonest. Just stay away from those people like the plague, because they can ruin your life. And he was very successful at running around with great people-- Buffett being the best example.

JOSH LIPTON: All right. Thank you so much, guys. Cole Smead, Smead Capital Management CEO, and George Seay, Annandale Capital founder and chairman, thank you both.

GEORGE SEAY: Great to be with you all.»


https://finance.yahoo.com/video/charlie-munger-renaissance-man-223820454.html

[Kaspov]

AI - o mundo está a mudar rapidamente...

Ponte de Comando - 12/12/2023 - Prepara-te para a maior mudança de sempre. - CdK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAcNDp091e8

[Kaspov]

+ 1 episódio com mto int., das CdK do grande MB:

Ponte de Comando - 14/12/2023 - Porque é que Crypto é Scam? - CdK

NOTA:este video nao é aconselhamento financeiro😆😎

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mYRWAQF1Vs

[Kaspov]

As 10 maiores economias africanas:


«Internacional

As dez maiores economias de África

A Nigéria é líder incontestada e distanciada do ranking do FMI. Seguida do Egito e, em terceiro lugar, da África do Sul. Angola abre a segunda metade deste top 10.

Redação

24 de Dezembro 2023

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17:21

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As dez maiores economias de África

Para se estabelecer um ordenamento dos países mais ricos de África é necessário um complexo equilíbrio entre o seu Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), a sua dimensão demográfica, o rendimento por habitante, outros indicadores e o potencial económico conhecido.

Para o Fundo Monetário Internacional o que mais influencia a posição nessa hierarquia é o PIB em termos de paridade de poder de compra e as perspetivas de crescimento a médio prazo.

Eis uma breve referência às 10 maiores economias do continente africano em que, como veremos, os setores do petróleo e do gás, da agricultura e do turismo ocupam, naturalmente, papel de extremo relevo, a par das outras riquezas naturais em que África é tão rica.

Em primeiro lugar, a NIGÉRIA demarca-se, de longe, como a economia mais potente do continente! O seu PIB em 2022 foi avaliado em 477 biliões de dólares, é o país mais populoso de África, ultrapassando os 200 milhões de habitantes, e o FMI estima que o seu PIB atinja os 915 biliões de dólares em 2028! Deste modo, ampliaria mesmo a distância para os seguidores, que deverão manter essas posições entre os países mais ricos. Recordemos que a Nigéria tem uma economia diversificada, assente nos setores petrolífero e do gás natural.

Em segundo lugar surge o EGITO, com uma economia baseada no turismo, na agricultura, e também no petróleo e no gás.

Em terceiro temos a ÁFRICA do SUL, com a economia dominada pela indústria mineira, a agricultura e os serviços.

Segue-se a ARGÉLIA, em que as importantes reservas de petróleo e gás natural são suficientes para a colocar nesta posição.

MARROCOS vem depois, com uma economia mais diversificada em que o turismo, a agricultura, a indústria e os serviços têm lugar de destaque.

ANGOLA abre a segunda metade desta lista, baseada no petróleo, nos diamantes e outros ricos recursos naturais, e um turismo com grande potencial mas ainda pouco explorado.

O QUÉNIA, além do seu papel de centro económico regional, tem uma economia diversificada com os setores dos serviços, da agricultura e do turismo bem desenvolvidos.

No GANA são a agricultura, o petróleo, o gás e os serviços que impulsionam a economia.

A TANZÂNIA assenta a sua riqueza na agricultura, no turismo e nos recursos naturais.

A lista é fechada pela ETIÓPIA, uma economia em rápido crescimento, com a agricultura, as indústrias de manufactura e as infraestruturas a terem um papel primordial.»


https://sol.sapo.pt/2023/12/24/as-dez-maiores-economias-de-africa/

[Kaspov]

Interessante...   

Why Looking Poor is Important - Azul

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6JdlhIft4Q

[Kaspov]

Um quadro interessante (q inclui uma curiosa ref. a Portugal)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/assets%20best%20worst%20jan%202.jpg?itok=-3qLrfP_