Hoje mais um downgrade nas empresas do carvão e mais um estoiro...
Qual é que estoirou?
A ANR; quer dizer, não faliu, mas está a cair 12%, foi a que levou o downgrade.
Sobre o carvão ...
King Coal ‘no more’
The bad news continues in the thermal coal market. After falling significantly in recent weeks, prices are down 30% year-over-year and recently hit their lowest levels in two years. Key factors include slowing Chinese growth, a shift to cheap natural gas, and tough environmental regulations.
Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that the market has moved into surplus, which means that miners are likely to cut production and delay expansion plans. The recent collapse of the highly-touted Patriot Coal Corp. could be a sign of things to come.
But don’t expect supply cuts to create a quick turnaround in prices, the strategists said. They noted that it will take “time and discipline” to work through the glut in the market.
“While we see a stabilization in prices at the current levels, we do not expect a sharp price recovery on the back of output cuts,” they wrote in a note titled “King Coal no more.” The strategists expect a surplus of close to two million metric tonnes in the market this year, compared to a deficit of almost eight million last year. And while they think the deficit will shrink in 2013, they do not expect it to disappear.
In light of the weakening market, analysts are taking a more cautious view of the thermal coal equities as well. On Monday, BMO Capital Markets analyst Meredith Bandy downgraded both Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (to underperform from outperform) and Arch Coal Inc. (to underperform from market perform). In both cases, she noted relatively high debt levels, deteriorating margins, and weak demand for coal from the Appalachian region of the United States.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/16/king-coal-no-more/?__lsa=79eadcaa&source=email_rt_mc_body&ifp=0