Trump may benefit from emphasis on terrorism in tonight’s CNN debate
THE BIG IDEA:
— Terrorism has emerged as the top concern among Republican primary voters, and Donald Trump is seen as the candidate best equipped to combat it. This is the main reason Trump has popped in the polls since his call last week for a temporary ban on Muslim immigration into the United States.
A fresh Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that 38 percent of Republicans name terrorism as the single most important issue, compared with 29 percent who name the economy and just 6 percent who highlight immigration. “Asked to choose which candidate among the top five they would trust most to deal with threats of terrorism, half of Republicans cite Trump,” Dan Balz and Scott Clement write this morning.
Our poll finds Trump getting 38 percent among Republicans nationally, his highest mark yet. Ted Cruz of Texas has surged into second with 15 percent, effectively doubling his support since our poll last month. Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are tied for third, with 12 percent each.
Fifty-nine percent of Republicans agree with Trump’s proposed Muslim ban, even as 60 percent of all adults nationally say it is the wrong thing to do.
Wolf Blitzer, moderating tonight’s debate on CNN, plans to focus heavily on terrorism and ISIS. “We’ll get to other subjects as well,” he told his cable channel, “but that’s going to be a really important focus, because that’s where the American public is right now.”
Other surveys also back up the sudden salience of terrorism in the wake of the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. A Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa, which finds Trump and Cruz tied (28-27) among likely GOP caucus-goers, has 30 percent naming terror as their top issue, compared to 21 percent for the economy, 13 percent for foreign policy and 11 percent for immigration. In Iowa, asked who can best deal with terrorism, 33 percent of Republicans said Trump to 24 percent for Cruz and 9 percent for Rubio.
Gallup offers good benchmarks on how the current level of fear among voters compares to the weeks after previous terrorist attacks: Their own poll, published yesterday, found that one in six Americans, or 16 percent, now identify terrorism as the most important U.S. problem, up from just 3 percent last month. “This is the highest percentage of Americans to mention terrorism in a decade, although it is still lower than the 46% measured after 9/11,” writes Rebecca Riffkin. “In 2004, mentions rose as high as 19% after the Madrid train bombings, and then jumped again to 17% in 2005 after the London train and bus bombings. Since 2007, less than 10% of Americans — sometimes less than 1% — have mentioned terrorism in Gallup’s monthly updates, although mentions did spike again to 8% in early 2010 after the failed ‘underwear bombing.’”
Key data point that underscores what Trump is tapping into: “Americans’ trust in the government to protect them from terrorism is the lowest Gallup has measured.”
— So much for being the flavor of the month: Tomorrow is the six month anniversary of Trump kicking off his presidential campaign. One month ago, Jeb Bush declared confidently to a room of anxious donors in Dallas: “Come December 15, Trump will be in decline.” Well, today is Dec. 15. And The Post poll puts Jeb at 5 percent to Trump’s 38 percent. “I’m super-worried for him,” a major donor who has hosted fundraisers for the former Florida governor tells Ed O’Keefe.wapo