Ouro - Tópico principal

[tugadaytrader]

Ouro a caminho de mínimos de 2013.

Gráfico Mensal.



Um possível rompimento do suporte a $1180 pode levar o ouro abaixo dos $1000.


Blog - Bull And Bear Markets

[hermes]

E lá continua a Índia no seu processo de aprendizagem que a Natureza tem horror ao vazio.

In India, smugglers move gold like narcotics

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/india-gold-smuggling-idINDEE9B20HY20131203

(Reuters) - Indian gold smugglers are adopting the methods of drug couriers to sidestep a government crackdown on imports of the precious metal, stashing gold in imported vehicles and even using mules who swallow nuggets to try to get them past airport security.

Stung by rules imposed this year to cut a high trade deficit and a record duty on imports, dealers and individual customers are fanning out across Asia to buy gold and sneak it back into the country.

Sri Lanka, Thailand and Singapore are the latest hotspots as authorities crack down on travellers from Dubai, the traditional source of smuggled gold.

In a sign of the times, whistleblowers who help bust illegal gold shipments can get a bigger reward in India than those who help catch cocaine and heroin smugglers.

"Gold and narcotics operate as two different syndicates but gold smuggling has become more profitable and fashionable," said Kiran Kumar Karlapu, an official at Mumbai's Air Intelligence Unit.

"There has been a several-fold increase in gold smuggling this year after restrictions from the government, which has left narcotics behind."

From travellers laden head-to-toe in jewellery to passengers who conceal carbon-wrapped gold pieces in their bodies - in the mistaken belief that metal detectors will not be set off - Indians are smuggling in more bullion than ever, government officials say, driven by the country's insatiable demand for the metal.

That suggests official data showing a sharp fall in gold buying, which has helped narrow India's current account gap, may significantly underestimate the real level of gold flows.

The World Gold Council estimates that 150 to 200 tonnes of smuggled gold will enter India in 2013, on top of the 900 tonnes of official demand.

Between April to September alone, India's customs officials seized nearly double the amount of smuggled gold it nabbed in all of 2012.

"Though the quantum of seizures has increased, in our opinion it reflects only 1 to 2 percent of total smuggling," said a revenue intelligence officer in Mumbai who declined to be named. "Dubai is still the number one place from where gold gets in and Singapore is slowly emerging. Sri Lanka has become a staging point."

Grappling with a high trade deficit and weak currency, India imposed measures this year to crimp demand for gold, the second most expensive item on its import bill after oil. It imposed a 10-percent duty on bullion and a 15-percent tariff on jewellery. Imports plunged to 24 tonnes in October from a record 162 tonnes in May.

SUPPLY CRUNCH

Gold is an integral part of Indian culture, offered at weddings and festivals. India was the world's biggest gold consumer until last year but will be overtaken by China in 2013.

India has now stepped up cooperation with nearby countries to stem the smuggling.

Last week, Sri Lanka limited the amount of jewellery its residents can take out of the country and it will try to monitor whether they bring it back. Pakistan banned all gold imports in August for a month as it believed much was being smuggled on into India.

Indian gold premiums have soared to $130 an ounce over London prices due to the supply crunch, compared with about $2 an ounce in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand.

Banks and other official trading agencies in Singapore and Thailand that had supplied gold to their Indian counterparts have stopped due to India's new rules.

But smaller dealers and retailers say they have been selling more to Indian customers than ever before, in jewellery and other forms.

Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd, said he has sold about 10 kg (22 lbs) of gold to a single Indian customer and gets multiple similarly big orders on some days.

"We have Indian dealers buying from us directly on a regular basis," said a second Singapore dealer. "They say they have their own means of taking it in without getting caught."

GOLDEN STAPLES, SLEEPLESS NIGHTS

As customs officials at airports and borders get more vigilant, smugglers are innovating.

In June, a passenger flying from Dubai was caught at New Delhi airport with about 755 grams (1.7 lbs) of solid gold staples painted grey. Officials stopped the man because the cardboard boxes he was carrying were stapled far more than seemed necessary.

In several other cases, travellers have been caught with gold in their underwear. Flight attendants and police officers have been arrested for aiding the smugglers.

"We are trying to plug all the loopholes. We have strengthened our anti-smuggling staff and installed door metal detectors," said S.A.S. Navaz, deputy commissioner of customs in the south Indian city of Kochi. "We are spending sleepless nights.

"Most of the time, it is done with the support of (airport) staff. It is very difficult to keep an eye on everyone."

In late November, 56 Sri Lankans were held in Kochi after they were found with nearly 12 kg of gold. Some of them had travelled to Kochi six times last month.

Sri Lanka, which raised taxes on gold imports from June to November due to rising smuggling to India, last week said female residents could only fly out with 120 grams of jewellery, the equivalent of about 28 wedding bands. Men are allowed a third of that.

Customs officials may allow exceptions but will monitor if passengers bring back the same amount of gold they left with.

"In the last three to four months, we have seen several cases of gold smuggling from Sri Lanka to India through cities such as Mumbai, Kochi and Chennai," Leslie Gamini, a spokesman for Sri Lankan customs, said from Colombo.

"It is a very difficult task. But we have to implement it. We are in the process of developing guidelines on how to implement this."

Though the number of arrests made in India has increased, those that get caught are usually only the "carriers" who transport gold for as little as 10,000 rupees. The people behind the smuggling are rarely identified.

In an effort to change that, Mumbai customs offers a reward of up to 50,000 rupees per kg of bullion seized for informers in gold smuggling cases. Cocaine and heroin informers get only up to 40,000 rupees and 20,000 rupees respectively.

(Editing by Amran Abocar and Alex Richardson)

[JoaoAP]

entao esse ouro? comprei GDXJ e nada, dou-lhe um ano ou entao fecho a posicao 

Parece que vai começar a subida... será?
Só hoje foram 4,34%

Se tiver fechar a minha posição para tomar lucros na AGQ, depois entro nesta.

[Zel]

entao esse ouro? comprei GDXJ e nada, dou-lhe um ano ou entao fecho a posicao 

Parece que vai começar a subida... será?
Só hoje foram 4,34%

Se tiver fechar a minha posição para tomar lucros na AGQ, depois entro nesta.

neste momento a minha media estao nos $34.9, ainda estou a perder

nao sei se comecou a subida, espero que sim

[hermes]

E lá continua a produção a ajustar-se ao preço.

Barrick laying off 1,500 Pascua-Lama workers in Argentina: government

December 14, 2013

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-laying-off-1-500-144711197.html

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp is laying off roughly 1,500 of its approximately 5,000 workers on the Argentine side of its suspended Pascua-Lama gold mine project, a local government spokesman said on Saturday.

The Toronto-based miner said in October it was moth-balling the huge project, which straddles the border between Argentina and Chile.

However, Barrick (ABX.TO) maintained workers in Argentina's Western San Juan province to perform maintenance tasks and build some infrastructure.

"As of 2014 there will be 3,500 workers," Alejandro Flores, the spokesman for the San Juan Mining Ministry, told Reuters.

"All the works on the Argentine side have been rescheduled as the company is prioritizing works on the Chilean side. Therefore most people working on site won't be necessary for two years," he added.

Chile's environmental regulator suspended the project earlier this year due to "significant" environmental harm, and ordered mitigation measures to avoid water pollution.

Pascua-Lama has also been plagued by cost overruns, what experts have called poor management, and lower bullion prices.

Before the project's suspension, the Toronto-based miner employed roughly 10,000 people on the Argentine side of the complex.

Barrick did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

(Reporting by Maximilian Heath; Writing by Alexandra Ulmer; Editing by Vicki Allen)

[jeab]

https://www.unience.com/blogs-financieros/xavierbrun/orobajara_mas

[hermes]

Estou a fazer figas para que sim.

[hermes]

Lá continuam os contrabandistas a fazerem tudo ao seu alcance para fazerem as noivas indianas felizes... inclusive contrabando legal de ouro.

Gold takes ‘legal’ route to Kerala

T Ramavarman,TNN
Dec 22, 2013, 12.36 AM IST

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kochi/Gold-takes-legal-route-to-Kerala/articleshow/27742112.cms

KOCHI: Revenue intelligence agencies manning various airports are helplessly watching huge quantities of gold flowing into the state through the legal route with jewellers using NRIs returning home as 'couriers'. All 80 passengers on a flight from Dubai that landed in Kozhikode last week were found carrying 1kg of gold, the legally permitted limit, the gold on that flight alone totalled 80kg, worth Rs 24cr.

Jewellers are reportedly contacting NRIs through travel agents to persuade them to carry 1 kg of gold paying 10% of its value as duty in foreign currency. The jewellers offer to remit the duty as well quid pro quo like flight tickets, customs officials revealed.

Nearly 200 kg of gold was "imported'' after remitting the due duties through Kozhikode during last one week. Cochin International Airport witnessed the import of over 140 kg of gold in the first 20 days of December, said a customs official.

[hermes]

Está a chegar a hora [falta uma tonelada]. Para comemorar, desejo-vos a todos um feliz dia 800:



Fonte: http://mdbriefing.com/gold-rumors.shtml

[Pekenobuda]

Comecei a acumular acções mineiras de ouro e prata. Tiveram quebras violentissimas e 2014 pode ser o ano da viragem.

Nesta altura HUI está a cotar ao mesmo nível de quando o ouro estava a 700-800.

[SrSniper]

Por acaso todas as casas de investimento referem que 2014 vai ser um ano mau para os metais preciosos precisamente por isso ando a olhar para eles para entradas longas.
Não achas melhor investir em xaueur ou xauusd?

[Zel]

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/12/16/gold-etf-exodus-is-the-fastest-on-record/?mod=BOLBlog?mod=BOL_article_full_blog_etf

[JoaoAP]

Sim, há quem esteja a posicionar-se nas Bonds.
Por exemplo no TLT , mas ... eu acho ainda cedo.
Aliás o TLT e TBT tem dado, como já disse uma vez, um bom investimento, mas em estratégias de Opções.

Just a quick chart I would like to share with you all. A friend emailed me Citigroup’s Inflation Surprise Index readings, so I overlaid Crude Oil prices against it. You should be able to notice that it can be used as a contrarian indicator for commodity prices.

For example, as commodity prices sell off, majority of analyst (dumb money) become bearish and do not expect a rise in inflation. However, ironically that is precisely when commodity prices bottom out and inflation pressures return. These periods were seen in during 1998, late 2001, late 2003, late 2006, early 2009 and currently throughout 2013 – all of which coincided with commodity price bottoms and buying opportunities. I hardly doubt this time will be different.

shortsideoflong.com/
Pessoalmente acho que as comodities ainda não estão em bull ... mas pode haver surpresa.


A mim, a Prata deu sinal de compra no diário na 5ª mas logo na sexta deu possível reverse.
A GDXJ (que vou tentar apanhar um swing). Deu sinal de comprar na 4ª e continua. Aliás, aqui tenho um segundo sinal de compra.
Mas no semanal não. Mas no semanal tenho um indicador que a confirmar-se dá um potencial forte de subida.
Para semana devo fazer uma compra, pequena de GDXJ se continuar assim.

Pekenobuda,
compraste pequenas ou grandes mineiras?

[Pekenobuda]

Não achas melhor investir em xaueur ou xauusd?

A questão é que estou limitado nos instrumentos que posso usar, não posso ir pelos xauxxx. De qualquer das formas acredito que as acções vão dar mais carcanhol.

A mim, a Prata deu sinal de compra no diário na 5ª mas logo na sexta deu possível reverse.
A GDXJ (que vou tentar apanhar um swing). Deu sinal de comprar na 4ª e continua. Aliás, aqui tenho um segundo sinal de compra.
Mas no semanal não. Mas no semanal tenho um indicador que a confirmar-se dá um potencial forte de subida.
Para semana devo fazer uma compra, pequena de GDXJ se continuar assim.

Pekenobuda,
compraste pequenas ou grandes mineiras?

Eu acho que nas acções o fundo pode não andar muito longe, se é por aqui ou 20% mais abaixo não faço ideia, por isso tenho vindo a comprar aos poucos. Na verdade não comprei directamente acções, estou a comprar indirectamente através do fundo Invesco Gold & Precious Metals Fund.

O GDXJ parece-me muito boa opção para surfar uma hipotetica inversão de tendência, se tivesse acesso era o que fazia. GDXJ e Hecla Mining. No passado, quando tradava acções directamente nunca comprei as grandes mineiras tipo ABX ou NEM, fazia sempre as médias/juniors.

Paciente, onde andas tu?

[Zel]

vou esperar q o gdxj suba 50% ou mais antes de sair

[hermes]

E pronto, o GLD já está abaixo das 800 toneladas. Já só faltam 798.22 toneladas.

[JoaoAP]

Ainda ontem o Armstrong tinha mais um excelente comentário acerca do Ouro. ... para baixo. E já o tinha dito há mais de um ano.
Este indivíduo é excelente. Não só no ouro como em geral. Aliás, de vez em quando coloco alguns artigo dele por cá.

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I have read much of the hateful vindictive slander that has been hurled at you by the gold community. It is really shocking how much some of these people hate you. The whole thing about Kristy was disturbing. I met people at your conference who sent her money claiming she needed it to scan reports. Then the story how they saved you when it was Congress who issued a letter to investigate your treatment. They even tried to take credit for that. I guess these are the very people who have to puke their guts out before the metals will ever turn. Just as you said, going into the low everyone will turn bearish. I listened and sold. Thank you so much for helping me to become a trader.

Thank you again

JH

REPLY: Yes the stories these people have crafted are off the wall. I like how they pretend to put out comments from the kid who grew up across the street from me I happened to mention once. The problem, he died when we were kids so he is not the author of these comments they fabricate – Kenneth Siegel. Yes I was shocked at people soliciting money in my name. One friend sent $5,000 thinking he was helping me when they were exploiting readers. As for not being grateful and how the Goldbugs got Congress for me, it was the other way around. I put Nathan in contact with Glen Downs, they did not introduce Glen Downs to me. Everything they can twist upside down they have done.

No matter what they have fabricated, gold still went down. The idea that somehow desperately trying to paint me as some ungrateful jerk would stop people from listening to me and save gold just didn’t work. They argue banks manipulate gold, yet are they not trying to do the same thing by slandering me? Yes, these comments are even criminal. You cannot fabricate this nonsense with immunity. Just amazing how far some people will go to try to save gold.

Incrivel o nº de acetos deste senhor.
E tem uma coisa boa, com os artigos dele vai-se aprendendo muito.

[carlosmgm]

JoãoAP, concordo contigo.
Acompanho o MA há cerca de 2 anos, e como dizes, aprende-se bastante com ele.


Umas ótimas entradas para todos e um excelente ano de 2014.

Beijinhos e Abraços.

[hermes]

Excelente conselho, o da venda, pois assim o ouro flui para as mãos de quem mais o valoriza [e merece].

[Incognitus]

Para o ouro alguém querer vender é sempre um problema. Afinal, não existe mais forma de retirar retorno dele que não seja vendê-lo mais caro a outra pessoa.