Ouro - Tópico principal

[Kin2010]

Sim, a GFI é a Gold Fields que é um ETF cotado na NYSE, de acções mineiras de ouro, com exposição às sul-africanas.

[Automek]

É que quando pesquiso a GFI aparece-me na Yahoo e na IB como sendo uma normal stock (empresa Ltd) e não um ETF

[Pip-Boy]

Na NYSE aparece como ADR, não como ETF.

[Kin2010]

Na NYSE aparece como ADR, não como ETF.

É isso, nem sequer tinha reparado que não era um ETF.

[JoaoAP]

Vamos ver como corre o referendo na Suiça.

[jeab]

O maior número de "nãos", 76%, foi dado à proposta para o Banco Nacional Suíço aumentar as suas reservas de ouro obrigatórias para pelo menos 20% dos seus activos.


http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/suicos_rejeitam_tres_propostas_referendadas_incluindo_limitar_imigracao.html

[mibusiness]

E a prata rebentou

[hermes]

Move along, nothing to see here!


source: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/2014/09/russia-adds-another-300000-ounces-of.html

What Is Happening With Gold: Russian Economist Mikhail Khazin - Of Volatility and Collars

By Jesse
On 12 December 2014

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/2014/12/comments-on-gold-from-russian-economist.html


There are some interesting observations contained in this excerpt of a recent interview with Russian economist Mikhail Khazin.   He is not speaking on behalf of the Russian government, so we must take his opinions as we may from a private individual observing things from a different corner of the world.

Here is a bio of Mr. Khazin.

I found some particular interest in his views on the price of gold, and the approach of Russia and China in buying physical gold on the world markets, without attempting to break the leverage of the paper gold markets directly.

This would of course lead to increasing volatility in the price of precious metals until a market break provides the opportunity for the paper and physical market to converge.  Mr. Khazin believe this will be triggered by the bursting of the next financial bubble.

Whether this scenario should actually come about is a matter of some speculation.  I do not know what Russia and China will do, and how the West might respond. So we should look carefully at the accumulation of gold by Russia and China, and the general buying patterns of other central banks as well.

One might expect the speculative exchanges to take some steps to protect themselves from increasing volatility, such as establishing trading collars or limits, in the price of gold and silver.  Oh my.

This is just a brief portion of an interview covering a number of topics. You may read the entire interview here.
 

"It had been clear to many economists for a long time that the role of gold in the world will grow and, most likely, will return to its position as a single measure of value. In particular, we wrote about the current crisis back in 2004 in our book The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of the Pax Americana. There's a whole chapter devoted to the role of gold and its manipulation.

However, Russian economic leaders close to the IMF ignored this position at the time. This only began to change in the last couple of years. China has been serious about gold for almost the entire last decade and is now actively preparing for a potential transition to a 'gold standard,' at least in economic relations between the so-called 'currency zones' which, in our opinion, will emerge after the single world dollar system falls apart.

But Russia and China cannot stop these manipulations, because the price of paper gold is determined on the speculative dollar markets. They can’t provide 'leverage' that would be comparable to that of major U.S. banks that have access to an unlimited issuing resource. The only thing they can do is increase the gap between the price of 'paper' and 'physical' gold by constantly buying the latter on the world markets.

Of course, this increases the instability in the global gold market and creates potential losses for the main 'gold dealers' who work with the Federal Reserve on leasing programs, but the degree of imbalances has not reached a critical value yet. It seems to me that the sharp rise in gold prices will start after the burst of the next 'bubble' in the US stock market.

With regard to the potential price of gold, as I wrote back in the early 2000's, it is determined by a 'fork,' the lower limit of which is the gold price in 1980, when it had its local peak after the dollar was decoupled from gold (USA default) in August 1971, and the upper limit of which is the purchasing power of the dollar in the early twentieth century, when gold was actual money. Today this 'fork' (in current dollars) is seen somewhere at the level of $ 4,500 - $ 15,000 per Troy ounce."

[hermes]

Move along, nothing to see here!


source: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.ca/2015/01/china-withdraws-70-tonnes-for-latest.html

Wikileaks 1976: PBOC Focussed On Gold & SDR’s

Another piece of the puzzle.

By Koos Jansen
On 12 Jan 2015

https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/wikileaks-1976-pboc-particularly-interested-in-gold-sdrs/

The next Wikileaks cable is a summary of a meeting that took place in October 1976 between, among others, chairman of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns, and a delegation of Chinese bankers from the PBOC. For the record, this was five years after Nixon suspended US dollar convertibility into gold and one month after Mao Zedong past away.

Most notably the Chinese stated they see inflation as economic weakness and particularly expressed their interest in IMF gold auctions and the issuance of SDR’s. Sounds to me the PBOC was particularly not very enthusiastic about the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency in 1976.

Inflation in China has not been close to zero since 1976, nor did they adopt a form of gold standard in the seventies. However, this can all have been according to plan. If China had any ambitions in the late seventies to move away from the dollar and become an economic powerhouse, perhaps they decided it was best to first grow and develop within the existing system before making a change, because this is exactly what happened:

China’s communist economy started to open in the late seventies when Deng Xiaoping ruled the country and implemented the socialist economy; combining the Party’s socialist ideology with a pragmatic adoption of market economic practices. In recent decades China has been the growth wonder of the world making them currently the second largest economy right after the US. In 2002 China reformed its gold market and ever since is effectively stimulating its citizens to save in physical gold, making the People’s Republic the largest gold producer and consumer on earth. Additionally, China is openly calling for replacing the US dollar as the world reserve currency. Did this all adventitiously happen or was it carefully planned many years ago?


Nixon and Deng XiaopingCarter, Nixon and Deng Xiaoping

In Mao’s era, from 1949 until 1976, Chinese yearly domestic gold mine production increased 261 %, from 1976 until present production increased 2,964 %. 



In 1977 for the first time China disclosed their official gold reserves at 395 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Since then there have been three increases; 105 tonnes in 2001 (to 500 tonnes), 100 tonnes in 2003 (from 500 to 600) and 454 tonnes in 2009 (from 600 to 1,054 tonnes). Given the fact the PBOC is not buying such amounts in one month, but more likely spread over the years, my assumption is that the official amount disclosed by the PBOC reflects more about China’s political strategy than tonnes in reserve. China claims to have 1,054 tonnes currently, though there is overwhelming evidence they have substantially more in official reserves.



From Wikileaks:

1. SUMMARY: CALL OF CHAIRMAN BURNS ON PU MING, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA AND LIN CHI-HSIN, DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF THE BANK OF CHINA COVERED A WIDE VARIETY OF AMERICAN, CHINESE, AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MATTERS IN THREE-HOUR MEETING. POLITICAL QUESTIONS AND SINO-US BILATERAL RELATIONS DID NOT COME UP. CHINESE EVIDENTLY WERE VERY PLEASED WITH DISCUSSIONS, WHICH USLO CONSIDERS A SUCCESSFUL INTRODUCTION OF US AND PRC CENTRAL BANKING LEADERS.

2. CHAIRMAN BURNS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ACCOMPANIED BY NORMAN BERNARD OF THE FED. AND USLO OFFICER, CALLED OCTOBER 11 ON PU MING (0592/2494), DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, LIN CHI-HSIN (2651/1015/9387), DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF THE BANK OF CHINA, LIU PEN-KUN (0491/2609/2492), DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE BANKING DEPARTMENT OF THE BANK OF CHINA, AND TWO NOTETAKERS. THE MEETING LASTED THREE HOURS, AND ALL FOUR OF THE CHINESE MENTIONED ABOVE TOOK PART, LIU, SERVING AS INTERPRETER, BUT SOMETIMES DISCUSSING THE QUESTION BEFORE HE TRANSLATED IT.

3. THE CHINESE ASKED A VARIETY OF QUESTIONS ON THE CONDITION OF THE US ECONOMY, INCLUDING INTEREST RATES, LOANS, THE STATE OF THE RECOVERY OF THE ECONOMY, HOUSING STARTS, UTILIZATION OF CAPITAL, AND THE RATE OF INFLATION AND THE INCREASE IN THE MONEY SUPPLY. THE CHINESE WERE WELL INFORMED ON THE US ECONOMY, AND APPARENTLY HAD DISCUSSED THEIR QUESTIONS BEFORE THE MEETING. THEY WERE OBVIOUSLY PLEASED WITH THE FRANK AND STRAIGHT ANSWERS GIVEN THEM.

4. IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, THE DISCUSSION CONSISTED MAINLY OF QUESTIONS BY THE CHINESE AND ANSWERS BY DR. BURNS, ALTHOUGH THE CHINESE VIEW THAT INFLATION IS A SYMPTOM OF ECONOMIC WEAKNESS CAME THROUGH CLEARLY. THE CHINESE ASKED ABOUT DR. BURNS’ VIEWS OF THE IMF CONFERENCE AND WERE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE IMF GOLD AUCTIONS, AND THE ISSUANCE OF SDR’S. THE CHINESE ASKED ABOUT THE PROBLEM OF CONTROLLING THE $200 BILLION IN EURODOLLARS, AND GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THEY CONSIDERED THE EURODOLLAR MARKET A THREAT TO EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY, WHICH BY IMPLICATION THEY SEEMED TO FAVOR. THEY ALSO ASKED ABOUT COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES AMONG THE OECD COUNTRIES. AGAIN, THE CHINESE BANKERS WERE WELL INFORMED AND HAD THEIR QUESTIONS WELL PREPARED.

5. DR. BURNS ASKED A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS ABOUT CHINESE FINANCING. IN THEIR REPLY ON HOW THE PRC FIXES EXCHANGE RATES, THE CHINESE WERE OBVIOUSLY DODGING, BUT CONFIRMED THAT THE RMB, AS A STABLE CURRENCY, TENDS TO FOLLOW THE STRONG CURRENCIES, SUCH AS THE DEUTSCHE MARK, AND PAYS CLOSE ATTENTION TO IMPORTANT CHINESE TRADING CURRENCIES SUCH AS THE YEN. MR. PU OUTLINED THE WORKING OF THE CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM, NOTING THE DIVISION OF LABOR BETWEEN THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA (THE CENTRAL BANK), THE BANK OF CHINA (FOREIGN EXCHANGE BANK), AND THE PEOPLE’S CONSTRUCTION BANK (INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION BANK). THERE IS NO BANK OF AGRICULTURE NOW FUNCTIONING. MR. PU’S STATEMENTS CONFIRMED THAT CHINESE MONETARY POLICIES ARE VERY RESTRICTIVE, WITH ALL BUDGETS AT A BALANCE OR WITH A SLIGHT SURPLUS, AND THE ISSUANCE OF EACH NEW RMB BACKED BY EIGHT RMB IN COMMODITIES. HE SAID THAT MONEY SUPPLY IN CHINA MEANS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE PAYMENTS BY CHECK FROM ONE ENTERPRISE TO ANOTHER.

6. NO POLITICAL SUBJECTS OR BILATERAL US-PRC QUESTIONS CAME UP IN THE DISCUSSIONS. THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO POLITICS WAS MR. PU’S FAREWELL REMARK THAT HE WAS SURE THAT NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS WOULD GIVE AN EVEN GREATER IMPETUS TO EXCHANGES OF VIEWS BETWEEN THE US AND CHINESE CENTRAL BANKS.

7. THE CHINESE BANKERS WERE EVIDENTLY PLEASED WITH THE VISIT, AS THE THREE HOURS OF CONVERSATION AND THE FACT THAT BOTH THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA AND THE BANK OF CHINA WERE REPRESENTED SHOW. THE MEETING WAS CORDIAL THROUGHOUT, AND DR. BURNS’ FRANK AND INFORMATIVE ANSWERS WERE MUCH APPRECIATED. USLO CONSIDERS THAT DR. BURNS’ VISIT WAS A SUCCESSFUL INTRODUCTION OF TOP US AND CHINESE CENTRAL BANKERS.

Previously posted historic documents:

1971, October 28. Phone call between Nixon and Kissinger on gold

1971, December 13 & 14, Azores. Negotiations between Kissinger and Pompidou about the value of currencies and gold

1973, May 18, Paris, France. Meeting Kissinger And Pompidou on value of gold

1974, March 6, Washington, US. Note From the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Finance and Development (Weintraub) to the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs (Volcker): GOLD AND THE MONETARY SYSTEM: POTENTIAL US–EU CONFLICT

1974, April 22 & 23, Zeist, The Netherlands. Meeting European Ministers Of Finance On Gold

1974, April 25. Minutes of Secretary of State Kissinger’s Principals and Regionals Staff Meeting on gold

Koos Jansen

[hermes]

Move along, nothing to see here!

Germany's Bundesbank Resumes Gold Repatriation; Transfers 120 Tonnes Of Physical Gold From Paris And NY Fed

By Tyler Durden
On 01/19/2015

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/bundesbank-resumes-gold-repatriation-transfers-120-tonnes-physical-gold-paris-and-ny

Three weeks ago, when looking at the latest NY Fed data of foreign gold held at the largest central bank gold vault in the world, we showed that in the month of November not only was a near record amount of gold withdrawn from the NY Fed, which at 42 tons was the single biggest monthly outflow at the NY Fed in over a decade...



... but that though the end of November, all of the Netherlands' 122 tons of gold withdrawals had been fully accounted for. This brought up an interesting question:

"... net of the Netherlands withdrawals, there is some 44 tons of extra gold that has been also quietly redeemed (by another entity). The question is who: is it now the turn of Austria to reveal in a few weeks that it too, secretly, withdrew some 40+ tons of gold from "safe keeping" in the US? Or was it Belgium? Or did the Dutch simply decide to haul back some more. Or did Germany finally get over its "logistical complications" which prevented it from transporting more than just a laughable 5 tons in 2013? And most importantly, did Germany finally grow a pair and decide not to let "diplomatic difficulties" stand between it and its gold?

We now know the answer, and it was, indeed, the latter with confirmation coming from the Bundesbank itself. As the German Central Bank announced earlier today, after withdrawing an embarrassing 5 tonnes of gold from New York in 2013, its rate of repatriation soared, and in what appears to have been just the past two months, has transferred a whopping 85 tonnes of gold from 80 feet below street level at Liberty 33 back to Frankfurt!

From Buba:

The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold last year. In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. "Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard, today's internationally recognised standard. "We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities," said Mr Thiele.

According to its new gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank will be storing half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults from 2020 onwards. This necessitates a phased transfer to Frankfurt am Main of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris.

Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bank has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt am Main - 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York. This is equivalent to roughly 23% of the total quantity to be transferred. The following table gives an overview of the gold that has been transferred to date.



As at 31 December 2014, the Bundesbank's gold reserves were stored at the following locations.

And the punchline:

The Bundesbank assures the identity and authenticity of German gold reserves throughout the transfer process - from when they are removed from warehouses abroad until they are stored in Frankfurt am Main. As soon as the gold was removed from the warehouse locations abroad, Bundesbank employees cross-checked the lists of bars belonging to the Bundesbank against the information on the bars removed. Finally, once they arrived in Frankfurt am Main, all the transferred gold bars were thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified by the Bundesbank. When all the inspections had been concluded, no irregularities came to light with regard to the authenticity, fineness and weight of the bars.

A curious amount of precautions and safeguards when transporting the "safe" and "untainted" gold held at the NY Fed to Frankfurt. Almost as if the Bundesbank, gasp, did not trust the quality and content of the NY Fed-held gold, nor its well-meaning intentions.

Ironically, it was exactly one year ago that we wrote "Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One Year" in which we wrote:

The official explanation was as follows: "The Bundesbank explained [the low amount of US gold] by saying that the transports from Paris are simpler and therefore were able to start quickly." Additionally, the Bundesbank had the "support" of the BIS "which has organized more gold shifts already for other central banks and has appropriate experience - only after months of preparation and safety could transports start with truck and plane." That would be the same BIS that in 2011 lent out a record 632 tons of gold...

Welt goes on to "debunk" various "conspiracy websites" that the reason why the gold is being melted is not to cover up some shortage (and to scrap serial numbers), but that the gold is exactly the same gold as before. Finally, to silences all skeptics, the Bundesbank says that "there is no reason for complaint - the weight and purity of the gold bars were consistent with the books match." In conclusion, Welt reports that in 2014 "larger transport volumes" can be expected from New York: between 30 and 50 tons.

Welt was off by just 50% with the full 2014 repatriated amount hitting 85 tons in what appears to have been a year-end scramble following the Netherlands repatriation shocker. And, as it turns out, all it took for the Bundesbank to send its repatriation amounts surging is for the Dutch to show it how it is done: i.e., by plane because crossing the Atlantic with a Brinks' truck full of gold certainly presents some "logisitcal challenges."

Sarcasm aside, it is quite clear that "logistical difficulties" is merely a politically correct strawman. Recall the real reason for the paltry repatriation by Buba in 2013, as explained by Deutsche Bank two months ago:

... the gold community paid great attention to the decision of the German Bundesbank to “bring German gold home”. At the beginning of 2013, the Bundesbank announced it would repatriate 300 tonnes of gold stored in the US by 2020. It is well behind schedule, citing logistical difficulties. Yet diplomatic difficulties are more likely to be the chief cause of the delay, especially seeing as the Bundesbank has proven its capacity to organise large-scale gold transports. In the early 2000s, the Bundesbank incrementally repatriated 930 tonnes of German gold held by the Bank of England.

Which leads us to the only relevant question: now that the "diplomatic difficulties" have been overcome and the Bundesbank is back on track to repatriating precisely the right amount of gold from the NY Fed to indicate that it has far less faith in the US central bank than it did when it was barely conducting any transfers in 2013, just how worse as the diplomatic difficulties now? We expect to get at least a partial answer on Thursday when Mario Draghi finally announces his long-overdue €500 billion QE program, with Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann, sitting quietly in a corner, and ignored by the ex-Goldman head of the ECB, contemplated just how much more, if not all, gold (there is still some 517 tonnes of gold left to be repatriated to Germany from NY and Paris) he should withdraw now in preparation for the "next steps"?

One thing is certain: Germany sends its kindest gratitude to Ukraine, whose gold, now long gone, is most likely to be found in a far safer, and remelted, state somewhere in the bowels under Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße, number 14 in Frankfurt am Main.

[Tridion]

Uma dúvida se andam todos a comprar ouro porque é que isso não se nota no preço? Mais, segundo li aqui se ajustar-mos a inflação ao preço do ouro, este atingiu o seu pico em 1980. Não é suposto que se alguns países voltarem ao padrão ouro que este valorize? E sendo o povo suiço tão lúcido e erudito porque é que vetou a reintrodução do padrão ouro?

Tenho ouro no meu portefólio, mas tenho a carteira toda em USD, e estou curioso para perceber quais as implicações destas movimentações na minha carteira...mas isso ninguém me deve saber responder 

[Incognitus]

Uma dúvida se andam todos a comprar ouro porque é que isso não se nota no preço? Mais, segundo li aqui se ajustar-mos a inflação ao preço do ouro, este atingiu o seu pico em 1980. Não é suposto que se alguns países voltarem ao padrão ouro que este valorize? E sendo o povo suiço tão lúcido e erudito porque é que vetou a reintrodução do padrão ouro?

Tenho ouro no meu portefólio, mas tenho a carteira toda em USD, e estou curioso para perceber quais as implicações destas movimentações na minha carteira...mas isso ninguém me deve saber responder 

Não há forma de prever nenhuma dessas coisas. O ouro é essencialmente especulativo.

[vbm]

Por imprevisível que o ouro seja, por especulativo que se mostre inclinado, há pontos fixos em torno dos quais se desenharão sempre os movimentos das cotações por que é transacionado. Refiro-me à sua universal aptidão como meio de liquidação de transações no tempo e no espaço. Deste modo, é mercadoria que quita dívidas de mercadorias, e como tal, boa moeda de pagamento. Acresce que, embora extraível do banco da natureza, o ritmo de tal emissão é lento e cognoscível, logo estável. Daí ser bom padrão de medição e comparação de valores. Presta-se a especulação. Sim, mas de curto prazo. A linha de tendência, essa reflecte a economia mundial e o volume de comércio internacional. Penso o seguinte: Assumamos o stock de ouro fixo, e, ou, conhecida a sua  produção anual; no outro prato da balança, o volume das  transações comerciais. Se estas aumentam, o stock valoriza, por, na sua invariabilidade, continuar a ser a contrapartida última dos pagamentos devidos; se o volume de comércio diminui, o stock desvaloriza pela mesma razão. Se as divisas mais utilizadas a compor as reservas dos bancos emissores de moeda mantiverem alguma proporção de equivalência ao euro, quanto mais comércio houver, mais as moedas divisas de pagamento, serão  necessárias e mais quantidade é delas emitida por o ouro se valorizar com o volume de transações. Mutatis mutandis, em sentido inverso, se o volume de comércio diminui. De maneira que me interrogo: isto é assim, ou está errado? O dólar, agora a valorizar-se, segue algum movimento de longo prazo do ouro? E o euro dá um passo atrás para a seguir dar dois em frente? Ou como é?

[Kin2010]

Arriscaria a prever que o ouro vai subir de novo. Talvez voltar ao recorde dos $1800 / onça. Isto porque se estão a acumular mais e mais sinais de perigo na economia mundial. Muitos artigos descrevem, e bem, vários cenários catastrofistas. Eu não sei se algum dos cenários se concretizará no curto prazo, nem qual a probabilidade deles, mas sei que cada um deles, se acontecer, tem o potencial de ser horrendo. Não é preciso muita imaginação para ver quais são. Euro, UE, deflacção, Rússia, Ucrânia, Médio Oriente, China hard landing, colapso dos emergentes, aquecimento global, guerra. You name it.

[leprechaun]

Não é com medo que se vai a parte alguma, e a prudência nada tem a ver com histórias de horrores anunciados e nunca concretizados!

É tão difícil falar do longo prazo como do muito curto prazo, mas o médio prazo (alguns meses até um ano) é mais fácil de antever. E nada se vislumbra que possa afetar no futuro próximo a economia mundial de uma forma drástica, pelo contrário, o otimismo das últimas medidas económicas deve prolongar-se e fazer surtir algum efeito durante o 1º semestre, embora talvez depois a euforia acalme um tanto.

Mas parece-me interessante colocar aqui este gráfico que mostra a evolução de 3 sites ligados a temas económicos − Market Watch (red), Seeking Alpha (yellow) e o ultra bear e catastrofista Zero Hedge (blue).

Como se vê, este último é o único que tem subido de forma consistente nos últimos 5 anos, coincidindo precisamente com o início do QE e o Bull market. Ora enquanto tal pessimismo continuar, o Bull não vai acabar!

No mínimo, há mais 6 meses de festa pela frente... vamos lá ganhar dinheiro, ó minha gente!

[hermes]

Arriscaria a prever que o ouro vai subir de novo. Talvez voltar ao recorde dos $1800 / onça. Isto porque se estão a acumular mais e mais sinais de perigo na economia mundial. Muitos artigos descrevem, e bem, vários cenários catastrofistas. Eu não sei se algum dos cenários se concretizará no curto prazo, nem qual a probabilidade deles, mas sei que cada um deles, se acontecer, tem o potencial de ser horrendo. Não é preciso muita imaginação para ver quais são. Euro, UE, deflacção, Rússia, Ucrânia, Médio Oriente, China hard landing, colapso dos emergentes, aquecimento global, guerra. You name it.

Não são necessárias catástrofes imprevisíveis. Basta o que é previsível:

* Há mais de 2500 anos que a maioria das pessoas confia na divisa do Banco Central da Natureza, banqueiros centrais incluídos.
* O que não pode continuar para sempre, não continuará para sempre. E a impressão sistémica [por todos os Bancos Centrais relevantes] não pode continuar para sempre.

[kitano]

O drama dos gold bugs é que no longo prazo estamos todos mortos

[Counter Retail Trader]

Esta quase em ponto rebuçado para o longo

[Zel]

o ouro tem valor intrinseco ?

[Manuel33]

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/investing.com-gold-index-1162

O que acham deste GAP down no XAUUSD?