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I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1040 em: 2024-03-30 02:48:44 »
O ouro vai de vento em popa. Reduzi um pouco a posição que tinha, com ganhos.

Pois, tem vindo a subir bem...   :)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1041 em: 2024-04-03 01:26:58 »
Acerca do famoso "gold standard":


«Bring Back Gold!

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Apr 03, 2024 - 01:20 AM


Authored by Llewellyn Rockwell via LewRockwell.com,


In these days of rampant inflation, it’s imperative that we return to the gold standard - and the real thing too.

By this I mean the classical gold standard, not the so-called “gold exchange” standard, and with no fractional reserve banking, just as the great Murray Rothbard wanted. In what follows, I’ll discuss some of the economic issues below, but it’s important to realize that it’s a moral issue as well.

I spoke about the difference between the classical gold standard and the fake gold standard. This might seem a technical issue, but it’s one of vital importance. Joe Salerno, the leading contemporary Austrian School authority on monetary economics and Academic Vice President of the Mises Institute, explains:

    “The historical embodiment of monetary freedom is the gold standard. The era of its greatest flourishing was not coincidentally the 19th century, the century in which classical liberal ideology reigned, a century of unprecedented material progress and peaceful relations between nations. Unfortunately, the monetary freedom represented by the gold standard, along with many other freedoms of the classical liberal era, was brought to a calamitous end by World War I.

Also, and not so coincidentally, this was the “War to Make the World Safe for Mass Democracy,” a political system which we have all learned by now is the great enemy of freedom in all its social and economic manifestations.

Now, it is true that the gold standard did not disappear overnight, but limped along in weakened form into the early 1930s. But this was not the pre-1914 classical gold standard, in which the actions of private citizens operating on free markets ultimately controlled the supply and value of money and governments had very little influence.

Under this monetary system, if people in one nation demanded more money to carry out more transactions or because they were more uncertain of the future, they would export more goods and financial assets to the rest of the world, while importing less. As a result, additional gold would flow in through a surplus in the balance of payments increasing the nation’s money supply.

Sometimes, private banks tried to inflate the money supply by issuing additional bank notes and deposits, called “fiduciary media,” promising to pay gold but unbacked by gold reserves. They lent these notes and deposits to either businesses or the government. However, as soon as the borrowers spent these additional fractional-reserve notes and deposits, domestic incomes and prices would begin to rise.

As a result, foreigners would reduce their purchases of the nation’s exports, and domestic residents would increase their spending on the relatively cheap foreign imports. Gold would flow out of the coffers of the nation’s banks to finance the resulting trade deficit, as the excess paper notes and checks were returned to their issuers for redemption in gold.

To check this outflow of gold reserves, which made their depositors very nervous, the banks would contract the supply of fiduciary media bringing about a monetary deflation and an ensuing depression.

Temporarily chastened by the experience, banks would refrain from again expanding credit for a while. If the Treasury tried to issue convertible notes only partially backed by gold, as it occasionally did, it too would face these consequences and be forced to restrain its note issue within narrow bounds.

Thus, governments and commercial banks under the gold standard did not have much influence over the money supply in the long run. The only sizable inflations that occurred during the 19th century did so during wartime when almost all belligerent nations would “go off the gold standard.” They did so in order to conceal the staggering costs of war from their citizens by printing money rather than raising taxes to pay for it.

For example, Great Britain experienced a substantial inflation at the beginning of the 19th century during the period of the Napoleonic Wars, when it had suspended the convertibility of the British pound into gold. Likewise, the United States and the Confederate States of America both suffered a devastating hyperinflation during the War for Southern Independence, because both sides issued inconvertible Treasury notes to finance budget deficits. It is because politicians and their privileged banks were unable to tamper with and inflate a gold money that prices in the United States and in Great Britain at the close of the 19th century were roughly the same as they were at the beginning of the century.

Within weeks of the outbreak of World War I, all belligerent nations departed from the gold standard. Needless to say by the war’s end the paper fiat currencies of all these nations were in the throes of inflations of varying degrees of severity, with the German hyperinflation that culminated in 1923 being the worst. To put their currencies back in order and to restore the public’s confidence in them, one country after another reinstituted the gold standard during the 1920s.

Unfortunately, the new gold standard of the 1920s was fundamentally different from the classical gold standard. For one thing, under this latter version, gold coin was not used in daily transactions. In Great Britain, for example, the Bank of England would only redeem pounds in large and expensive bars of gold bullion. But gold bullion was mainly useful for financing international trade transactions.

Other countries such as Germany and the smaller countries of Central and Eastern Europe used gold-convertible foreign currencies such as the US dollar or the pound sterling as reserves for their own domestic currencies. This was called the gold-exchange standard.

While the US dollar was technically redeemable in honest-to-goodness gold coin, banks no longer held reserves in gold coin but in Federal Reserve notes. All gold reserves were centralized, by law, in the hands of the Fed and banks were encouraged to use Fed notes to cash checks and pay for checking and savings deposit withdrawals. This meant that very little gold coin circulated among the public in the 1920s, and residents of all nations came increasingly to view the paper IOUs of their central banks as the ultimate embodiment of the dollar, franc, pound, etc.

This state of affairs gave governments and their central banks much greater leeway for manipulating their national money supplies. The Bank of England, for example, could expand the amount of paper claims to gold pounds through the banking system without fearing a run on its gold reserves for two reasons.

Foreign countries on the gold exchange standard would be willing to pile up the paper pounds that flowed out of Great Britain through its balance of payments deficit and not demand immediate conversion into gold. In fact by issuing their own currency to tourists and exporters in exchange for the increasing quantities of inflated paper pounds, foreign central banks were in effect inflating their own money supplies in lock-step with the Bank of England. This drove up prices in their own countries to the inflated level attained by British prices and put an end to the British deficits.

In effect, this system enabled countries such as Great Britain and the United States to export monetary inflation abroad and to run “a deficit without tears” — that is, a balance-of-payments deficit that does not involve a loss of gold.

But even if gold reserves were to drain out of the vaults of the Bank of England or the Fed to foreign nations, British and US citizens would be disinclined, either by law or by custom, to put further pressure on their respective central banks to stop inflating by threatening bank runs to rid themselves of their depreciating notes and retrieve their rightful property left with the banks for safekeeping.

Unfortunately, contemporary economists and economic historians do not grasp the fundamental difference between the hard-money classical gold standard of the 19th century and the inflationary phony gold standard of the 1920s.” See here.

Many people think that even if 100% reserve banking is desirable as an ideal, it would never work in practice. How could banks stay in business if they couldn’t lend their checking deposits? Doesn’t the supply of money need to expand as the economy grows? Murray Rothbard demolishes these objections with characteristic force:

    “Certain standard objections have been raised against 100 percent banking and against 100 percent gold currency in particular. One generally accepted argument against any form of 100 percent banking I find particularly and strikingly curious: that under 100 percent reserves, banks would not be able to continue profitably in business. I see no reason why banks should not be able to charge their customers for their services, as do all other useful businesses. This argument points to the supposedly enormous benefits of banking; if these benefits were really so powerful, then surely the consumers would be willing to pay a service charge for them, just as they pay for traveler’s checks now. If they were not willing to pay the costs of the banking business as they pay the costs of all other industries useful to them, then that would demonstrate the advantages of banking to have been highly overrated. At any rate, there is no reason why banking should not take its chance in the free market with every other industry.

The major objection against 100 percent gold is that this would allegedly leave the economy with an inadequate money supply. Some economists advocate a secular increase of the supply of money in accordance with some criterion: population growth, growth of volume of trade, and the like; others wish the money supply to be adjusted to provide a stable and fixed price level. In both cases, of course, the adjusting and manipulating could only be done by government. These economists have not fully absorbed the great monetary lesson of classical economics: that the supply of money essentially does not matter. Money performs its function by being a medium of exchange; any change in its supply, therefore, will simply adjust itself in the purchasing power of the money unit, that is, in the amount of other goods that money will be able to buy. An increase in the supply of money means merely that more units of money are doing the social work of exchange and therefore that the purchasing power of each unit will decline. Because of this adjustment, money, in contrast to all other useful commodities employed in production or consumption, does not confer a social benefit when its supply increases. The only reason that increased gold mining is useful, in fact, is that the large supply of gold will satisfy more of the non–monetary uses of the gold commodity.

There is therefore never any need for a larger supply of money (aside from the non-monetary uses of gold or silver). An increased supply of money can only benefit one set of people at the expense of another set, and, as we have seen, that is precisely what happens when government or the banks inflate the money supply. And that is precisely what my proposed reform is designed to eliminate. There can, incidentally, never be an actual monetary “shortage,” since the very fact that the market has established and continues to use gold or silver as a monetary commodity shows that enough of it exists to be useful as a medium of exchange.

The number of people, the volume of trade, and all other alleged criteria are therefore merely arbitrary and irrelevant with respect to the supply of money. And as for the ideal of the stable price level, apart from the grave flaws of deciding on a proper index, there are two points that are generally overlooked. In the first place, the very ideal of a stable price level is open to challenge. Hoarding, as we have indicated, is always attacked; and yet it is the freely expressed and desired action on the market. People often wish to increase the real value of their cash balances, or to raise the purchasing power of each dollar. There are many reasons why they might wish to do so. Why should they not have this right, as they have other rights on the free market? And yet only by their “hoarding” taking effect through lower prices can they bring about this result. Only by demanding more cash balances and thus lowering prices can the dollars assume a higher real value. I see no reason why government manipulators should be able to deprive the consuming public of this right.

Second, if people really had an overwhelming desire for a stable price level, they would negotiate all their contracts in some agreed-upon price index. The fact that such a voluntary “tabular standard” has rarely been adopted is an apt enough commentary on those stable-price-level enthusiasts who would impose their ambitions by government coercion.

Money, it is often said, should function as a yardstick, and therefore its value should be stabilized and fixed. Not its value, however, but its weight should be eternally fixed, as are all other weights. Its value, like all other values, should be left to the judgment, estimation and ultimate decision of every individual consumer.” See here.

If we want a true gold standard, can we get back to it? Of course we can. The inflationary monetary policy we have today is the key to the financial elites control over us. Without it brain-dead Biden and his gang of neocon controllers couldn’t function. We must prevail, and we can prevail. As I said in 2002,

    “The power to create money is the most ominous power ever bestowed on any human being. This power is rightly criminalized when it is exercised by private individuals, and even today, everyone knows why counterfeiting is wrong and knavish. Far fewer are aware of the role of the federal government, the Fed, and the fiat dollar in making possible the largest counterfeiting operation in human history, which is called the world dollar standard. Fewer still understand the connection between this officially sanctioned criminality and the business cycle, the rise and collapse of the stock market, and the continued erosion of the value of the dollar.

In fact, I would venture to guess that a sizeable percentage of even educated adults would be astounded to discover that the Federal Reserve does more than manage the nation’s money accounts, that, in fact, its main activity consists in actually creating money that distorts production and creates inflation and the business cycle. In fact, I would go further to suggest that many educated adults believe that gold continues to serve as the ultimate backing of our monetary system, and would be astonished to discover that our money is backed by nothing but more of itself.

We have our work cut out for us, to be sure, mainly at the educational level. We must continue to state the obvious at every opportunity, that the fiat system is exactly what it is, a system of paper money backed by nothing of real value. We must continue to point out that because of this, our economic system is not depression proof, but rather highly vulnerable to complete meltdown. We must continue to draw attention to the only long-term solution: a complete separation of money and state based on the commodity that the market has always chosen as money, namely, gold.

This takes us back to our original question: is the gold standard history? Is it so preposterously unrealistic to advocate it that we might as well move to on other things? It won’t surprise you that my answer is no. If there is one thing that a long-term view of politics teaches, it is that only the long-term really matters.

There will come a time when the current money and banking system, living off credit created by a fiat money system, will be stretched beyond the limit. When it happens, attitudes will turn on a dime. No advocate of the gold standard looks forward to the crisis nor to the human suffering that will come with it. We do, however, look forward to the reassertion of economic law in the field of money and banking. When it becomes incredibly obvious that something drastic must replace the current system, new attention will be paid to the voices that have long cast aspersions on the current system and called for a restoration of sound money.

Must a crisis lead to monetary reforms that we will like? Not necessarily, and, for that matter, a crisis is not a necessary precursor to radical reform. As Mises himself used to emphasize, political history has no predetermined course. Everything depends on the ideas that people hold about fundamental issues of human freedom and the place of government. Under the right conditions, I have no doubt that a gold standard can be completely restored, no matter how unfavorable the current environment appears towards its restoration.

What is essential for us today is to continue the research, the writing, the advocacy for sound money, for a dollar that is as good as gold, for a monetary system that is separate from the state. It is a beautiful vision indeed, one in which the people and not the government and its connected interest groups maintain control of their money and its safe keeping.

What has been true for hundreds of years remains true today. The clearest path to the restoration of economic health is the free market undergirded by a sound monetary system. The clearest path toward economic destruction is for us to stop working toward what is right and true.” See here.

Let’s do everything we can to end the Fed and restore the real gold standard!»


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/bring-back-gold
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1042 em: 2024-04-11 21:03:42 »
Mto int., acerca do Au:


«Von Greyerz: Gold & Silver Are Entering Their Exponential Phase

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Apr 11, 2024 - 11:30 AM


Authored by Egon von Greyerz via VonGreyerz.gold,

    "The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit."

    - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Gold is now in a hurry and silver even more so.

The price moves in the coming months and year are likely to be spectacular. The combination of technical and fundamental factors can easily drive gold well above $3,000 and silver to new highs above $50.

Forecasting gold is a mug’s game, as I have often stated.

But that is in the short term.

In the medium to long term, forecasting the Gold price is a cinch.

How can I be so certain?

Well, since the history of gold and money began, gold has always increased in value measured against fiat money.

Voltaire gave us the formula in 1729 when he said:
PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZER0

So why has no investor or layman ever heeded the simple fact that –
ALL CURRENCIES HAVE WITHOUT FAIL GONE TO ZERO.

What most people, including experienced investors, don’t understand is that gold doesn’t  increase in value.

Gold just maintains stable purchasing power. A Roman toga 2000 years ago cost 1 ounce of gold and a tailored suit today also costs 1 ounce of gold.

So it is really totally wrong to talk about gold going up when it is the unit we measure gold in that goes down. Just as all fiat money has done

Just take gold measured in US dollars. As the illustration below shows, the value of the dollar since 1971 has crashed, measured in real terms which is gold.

As the picture shows, 1 ounce of gold cost $35 in 1971. Today 53 years later 1 ounce of gold costs $2,300. So has gold increased in value 66x since 1971?

No of course not, it is the dollar which has declined in value and purchasing power by 98.5% since 1971.

 So what will gold be worth in the next 5 years? That is of course the wrong question.

Instead we must ask how much will the dollar and all currencies decline in real terms in the next few years?

Gold and silver have not increased in line with money supply or inflation and are severely undervalued.

Just look at gold adjusted for US CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the graph below.

So if we inflation adjust the gold price, the 1980 high at $850 would today be $3,590.

But if we adjust the gold price for REAL inflation based on Shadow Government Statistics calculation, the gold price equivalent of  the $850 high would today be $29,200.

In the 1980s the inflation calculation was adjusted, by the US government, to artificially improve/reduce official inflation figures.

And if we adjust the silver price for US CPI, the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $166.

Adjusted for REAL inflation, the $50 high silver in 1980 would today be $1,350.
GOLD – LONG SIDEWAYS MOVES FOLLOWED BY EXPLOSIONS 

Gold makes powerful moves and then goes sideways for long periods. After the gold explosion from $35 in 1971 to $850 in 1980, gold spent 20 years correcting until 2000.

That was the time that we decided that gold was now ready for the next run at the same time as risk in stock markets, debt and derivatives was starting to look dangerous.

So in 2002 we made major investments into physical gold at $300 for investors and for ourselves. At the time I recommended up to 50% of financial assets into gold based on wealth preservation principles and also the fact that gold at the time was unloved and oversold and thus represented excellent value.

WE HAVE LIFTOFF!

As gold went through $2,100 in early March, I declared “GOLD – WE HAVE LIFTOFF!”

Since then gold has moved up another $200 but that is the mere beginning of a secular move.

After the move from $300 in 2002 to $1920 in 2011 gold had a long correction again between 2013 and 2016. The break of the first Maginot Line (see chart) was predictable (article Feb 2019). Then in March 2023 it was clear that the second Maginot Line would break and we were seeing the beginning of the demise of the financial system as four US banks and Credit Suisse collapsed within a mater of days.

I discussed this in my March 2023 article “THIS IS IT! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS TERMINALLY BROKEN”

HOLDING GOLD REQUIRES PATIENCE

The message I want to convey with the two graphs above is that gold investing requires patience and obviously timing of the entry points. But in the long term investors will be extravagantly rewarded and at the same time hold the best insurance against a rotten system that money can buy.

Gold has consolidated under $2,000 since August 2020. The recent breakout is extremely important and not the end of a move.

No, this is the beginning of a move that will reach heights that today are unfathomable.

I am in no way intending to be sensational, but just trying to explain that fundamental and technical factors are now pointing to a secular bull market in gold and silver.

Also, normal measures of overbought will not be valid. Gold and silver will in the coming months be overbought for long periods of time.

But don’t forget that there will also be vicious corrections, especially in silver which is not for widows and orphans.

I want to emphasise again that our intention to invest heavily in gold and much less heavily in silver (much more volatile), was primarily for long term wealth preservation reasons. That reason is more valid than ever today.
THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE WILL COME

Since we have been expecting the “Everything Bubble” to turn into the “Everything Collapse” (see my article April 2023), all the bubble assets like stocks, bonds and property are likely to decline substantially in real terms which means measured in gold.

I willingly admit that I have been premature in predicting the Everything Bubble to collapse in nominal terms. But in real terms almost all major asset classes have underperformed gold since 2000 including stocks.

It is only the illusion of growth and prosperity based on worthless money creation that keeps this circus travelling on. But the circus acts will soon run out of tricks as the world discovers that this is only a mirage which has totally deluded us.

If we take stocks as an example, gold has outperformed the Dow and S&P since 2,000.

Hers is what I wrote 2 weeks ago:
The world’s best kept investment secret is GOLD.

    Gold has gone up 7.5X this century

    Gold Compound annual return since 2000 is 9.2%

    Dow Jones Compound annual return since 2000 is 7.7% incl. reinvested dividends

    So why are only 0.6% of global financial assets in gold?

    The simple answer is that most investors don’t understand gold because governments suppress the virtues of gold.

See my article on this subject

Stocks are now in position where we could have a major decline/collapse at any time.
WOLVES IN SHEEP’S CLOTHING

So back to the circus. The leaders of the Western World, whether we take the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France etc are mere clowns trying to fool their people with fake costumes (wolf in sheep’s clothing) and fake acts whether it is: 

Money printing, debts, vaccines, climate, war, migration, more lies, propaganda, moral and ethical decadence to mention but a few of the problems that are leading us to the collapse of the Western World.

Real clowns would probably do a better job than current leaders. They would at least entertain us instead of bringing the misery that a majority of people are currently experiencing.

Yes, I am aware that there is a small elite that is benefiting dramatically from the shameful mismanagement of the world economy whilst the majority suffers badly from inept leadership around the world.

So how will this end? In my view, as I have outlined in many articles, it can only end one way which is a total collapse of the financial system as well as of the political system.

Will we first have hyperinflation and then a deflationary implosion or will it go straight to the implosion. Will there be a global war. Well, the US and most Western leaders are doing their utmost to start a World War against the will of the people. There is absolutely no attempt to find a peaceful solution.

Instead it is more weapons and more money to escalate the war as well as pushing as many countries as possible into NATO. Both Biden and Stoltenberg (NATO leader) also want Ukraine – a warring nation – into NATO.

And with today’s sophisticated and dangerous weapons, no one can win a war.

Obviously, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran would win a war with boots on the ground at a cost of 100s of millions of lives. But modern wars are won in the air. And with around 15,000 nuclear warheads, the world can be destroyed many times over in a few minutes.

The world has never had a global economic and political crisis of this magnitude with so many destructive weapons, both financial (debt, derivatives) and military.

So to forecast the outcome is clearly impossible. One can only hope that people power will prevail and that incompetent leaders will be pushed out.

Otherwise there is little us ordinary people can do.

Wealth preservation in the form of physical gold, owned directly and in a safe jurisdiction (countries like the US, Canada or EU are not safe politically) is clearly the best insurance investors can buy.

Also we must assist family and friends in the difficult times ahead and make that circle the kernel of our lives (if it isn’t already).

And remember that most of the wonderful things in life are free like nature, music, books etc.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-gold-silver-are-entering-their-exponential-phase
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1043 em: 2024-05-08 19:25:42 »
«gold right now is about as cheap as it's ever been»

A. Rozencwajg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltLjgTnG10Q&t=5519s
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

vbm

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1044 em: 2024-05-11 20:15:00 »


Não queria comprar... mas não resisti.
Numa feira destas do tipo Wook
em centros comerciais.

A minha vida na profissão foi sempre marcada
por estas crises monetárias que nunca por nunca
me consentiram grande melhoria remuneratória!
1971 - 1973 - 1978 - 1980 - 1983 - 1994,
sempre a atirar para baixo o líquido
embolsado!

Mas o melhor está para vir.

China, Índia, Rússia continuam a amealhar ouro e
em breve disputarão impor as suas moedas garantes
de câmbio justo de valor contra valor.

Realmente, agora que os OPEP's já terminaram
o longo meio-século do petrodólar, de troca
de energia por modernização e construção
dos países árabes, que outro negócio
propõem os americanos!? Que dão
em troca do que compram?
Nada. Ou talvez, apenas,
protecção militar...
até quando?

Hum... isto vai levar uma grande volta.

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1045 em: 2024-05-11 21:58:54 »
Yes, let's hope that the best is yet to come, o que lo mejor está por venir!   :D
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1046 em: 2024-06-22 16:22:57 »
«Gold bull market: Why it's still in its early stages - Adam Rozencwajg

May 22, 2024 - 10:30 AM

Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News interviews Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates. In this interview, Rozencwajg provides an in-depth analysis of the current trends in the precious metals market, focusing on gold and silver. With gold prices reaching new record highs and central banks significantly increasing their gold reserves, Adam discusses the implications for investors and the global economy. He also explores the dynamic shift in gold demand from Western to Eastern markets, particularly highlighting the role of China and India. Additionally, Rozencwajg addresses the potential for a short squeeze in the silver market and the impact of de-dollarization efforts by BRICS nations.

Guests: Adam Rozencwajg

Source: Kitco News»

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-05-22/gold-bull-market-why-it-s-still-in-its-early-stages-adam-rozencwajg?__hstc=214401352.2c5eb861d01bdc2090ad6ae145800ab3.1712811267229.1712811267229.1713491133409.2&__hssc=&hsCtaTracking=75bf8881-eb3d-4736-b0f8-9fd70dcbc774%7C3b5de88d-a53b-4268-a533-bb019b02b780
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

vbm

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1047 em: 2024-06-22 17:23:14 »
Tempos interessantes.

Mas o Mike Billions
não deixa de ter razão...

Se o dinheiro não desvaloriza,
para quê investir e arriscar a perder!

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1048 em: 2024-06-22 17:40:53 »
Sim, tempos interessantes, sem dúvida!   ;D

E sim, o Mike Billions costuma ter razão...   :)

Qto a o dinheiro não desvalorizar, tenho mtas dúvidas...   :-\

Mas sim, quando se investe e se arrisca há sempre um considerável risco de perder!   ::)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

vbm

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1049 em: 2024-06-22 18:43:31 »
O Oriente e o Índico,
preferem o Ouro,
a créditos em
dólares.

I. I. Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1050 em: 2024-06-22 22:50:34 »
É mto natural, pois o ouro não se cria em quantidades industriais...   ;)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1051 em: 2024-06-30 15:26:04 »
«it does seem more likely is that gold uh takes on a more of a monetary role»

Adam R., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTPHLy93Fow&t=3s
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1052 em: 2024-08-10 17:08:15 »
«Central Bank Gold Buying Through First Half Of 2024 Sets Record

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by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Aug 10, 2024 - 04:40 PM

Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,


Despite central bank gold buying slowing moderately in the second quarter, it set a record through the first half of 2024.

Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of the year,  5 percent above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023.
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In the second quarter, central bank gold demand totaled 183 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. That was up 6 percent year-on-year, but about 39 percent lower than the Q1 buying pace. 

With gold at or near record price levels in most currencies, it’s unsurprising that central bank buying slowed in the second quarter.

China primarily drove the Q2 slowdown in central bank demand. The People’s Bank of China reported no additions to its gold reserves in May or June and only officially added 2 tons in April.

Prior to the pause in May, China had increased its gold holding for 18 straight months.

Many analysts believed the Chinese paused officially adding gold to their reserves in an effort to push gold prices lower.

When the Chinese reported no changes to their official reserves in May, it precipitated a panicked gold selloff. Despite the kneejerk reaction, it seems unlikely that the Chinese are finished adding gold to their reserves. There is also some speculation that China is adding a significant amount of gold to its reserves off the books.

Even with the pause, China still added nearly 30 tons of gold to its reserves through the first half of 2024.

Turkey was the biggest buyer through the first half of the year, adding 45 tons to its gold hoard. The bulk of its buying was in Q1, with the pace slowing to 15 tons in the second quarter.

 The Turkish central bank has bought gold for 12 straight months after liquidating 160 tons of gold in the spring of 2023.

India ranks as the second-biggest gold buyer through the first half of the year. The Reserve Bank of India has added gold to its reserves every month this year totaling 37 tons.

In 2022, the Indian central bank added 33 tons of gold to its reserves followed by a 16-ton increase last year.

The Reserve Bank of India has been buying gold since 2017. Over that period, the RBI has increased its gold holding by over 260 tons.

An Indian economist told the Times of India that the push to accumulate gold was based on both political and economic reasons. He said that the "reliability" of the U.S. dollar has "diminished." He noted the "noticeable decline" in the confidence in U.S. dollar assets.

Another economist told the Times, “It makes a lot of sense (to invest in gold), given the increased volatility in the FX market, elevated interest rates in the U.S., and, of course, also as the central banks in each economy would like to diversify the asset classes in which they are parking their reserves.”

India recently transported 100 tons of its gold from the UK back into India.

Poland was the biggest gold buyer in the second quarter, increasing its holding by 19 tons. The country currently holds about 13 percent of its reserves in gold. At a news conference in early June, National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński reiterated his plan to increase gold’s share of total reserves to 20 percent.

Poland was the second-biggest gold buyer in 2023. The Polish central bank bought 130 tons of gold last year, increasing its holdings by 57 percent, to 359 tons.

In 2021, Glapiński announced a plan to expand the country’s gold reserves by 100 tons. The central bank reached that goal in September of '23 and kept buying.

When he announced the plan to expand its gold reserves, Glapiński said holding gold was a matter of financial security and stability.

    "Gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system, destroying traditional assets based on electronic accounting records. Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes – forewarned is always insured.

    And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process."

Other notable buyers in the second quarter included:

    Uzbekistan – 7 tons
    Czech Republic – 6 tons
    Qatar – 4 tons
    Singapore – 4 tons
    Russia – 3 tons
    Iraq – 3 tons
    Jordan – 1 ton
    Kyrgyz Republic – 1 ton

 Notably, Singapore had been a consistent buyer this year before selling 12 tons of gold in June.

Uzbekistan has also been a frequent seller this year, turning back to buying in May. It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.

The Philippines has been the biggest seller through the first half of the year, decreasing its gold reserves by about 25 tons. Thailand was another notable seller, decreasing its holdings by just under 10 tons.

Despite the modest colling of central bank gold demand in Q2, there is no indication that they are souring on the yellow metal. According to the most recent World Gold Council survey, 29 percent of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months. The WGC said it was the highest level since the survey began in 2018.

Only 3 percent said they had plans to decrease gold reserves.

Earlier this year, the World Gold Council said the continuation of gold buying supports its expectation that "2024 will be another solid year of central bank gold demand."

    "Last year central banks placed great emphasis on gold’s value in crisis response, diversification attributes, and store-of-value credentials. A few months into 2024 the world seems no less uncertain meaning those reasons for owning gold are as relevant as ever."

Last year, central bank gold buying fell just 45 tons short of 2022’s multi-decade record.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks net gold purchases totaled 1,037 tons in 2023. It was the second straight year central banks added more than 1,000 tons to their total reserves.

Central bank gold buying in 2023 built on the prior record year. Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

China was the biggest buyer in 2023.

Analysts at ANZ Bank recently said they expect central bank gold buying to remain hot for at least the next six years.

According to these analysts, "Depleted trust in the U.S. fixed-income assets and the rise of non-reserve currencies are other themes that could support central bank gold buying."»


https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/central-bank-gold-buying-through-first-half-2024-sets-record
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1053 em: 2024-08-19 04:03:23 »
This Amount Of Gold & Silver Will Take You Far! This Is Why

Bald Guy Money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZoYU6Nue5M
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1054 em: 2024-08-19 04:15:46 »
+ 1 vídeo mto int.:


SHOCKING DATA! Gold & Silver Potentially Entering 10-Year Bull Market (With Price Targets)

Bald Guy Money

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjLyZ-pQjAw
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1055 em: 2024-08-23 17:02:12 »
«"Powell Pivot Is Complete": Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, & Bonds Surge As Fed Chair Says "Time Has Come For Policy To Adjust"

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by Tyler Durden

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 - 02:22 PM


Summary: Powell’s comments confirmed that a September rate cut is coming, as he said "the time has come for policy to adjust", with traders on the lookout for clarity regarding the magnitude of the cut. Commenting on the speech, WSJ's Nick "NIkileaks" Timiraos put it best: "The Powell pivot is complete" and notes the following:

    Powell is dovish across the board—from the same stage where he two years ago signaled the Fed would accept a recession as the price of restoring inflation:

        “The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.”
        “It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon.”
        “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
        “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
        “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

    Powell unfurls his narrative on the causes of and behaviors of inflation since 2020. Recognizing not everyone will agree with his framing, he concludes with this:

        "That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may vary."
        After recounting the series of judgments that led officials to describe inflation as likely to be transitory, Powell observes how widely shared these views were outside the Fed:
        "The good ship Transitory was a crowded one."

On the labor market, the Chair said "We do not seek or welcome further labor market cooling", which once again shows the importance of the US jobs report on 6th September which will seemingly dictate the size of the move by the Fed. as Timiraos noted earlier in the wake that a report as week as July might lead to a larger than 25bps cut.

Powell continued to note how the Fed’s attention has shifted within its dual mandate, as it stated "the balance of risks to our mandates has changed and upside risks to inflation have diminished, downside risks to employment have increased."

Lastly, the Chair reiterated data-dependency noting that "timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on data, outlook, balance of risks".

In reaction, markets saw a broad-based dovish reaction, with upside in Treasuries and stocks alongside downside in the Dollar. Note, Fed money-market pricing was little changed with still 32bps for September and 97bps by year-end.

Watch Powell here:

Tl;dr: Powell confirmed what was in The FOMC Minutes

    “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said:

    “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”

Labor market fears dominate...

    “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said, adding that the slowdown in the labor market was “unmistakable.”

Whatever it takes?

    "We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."

The Fed chief also acknowledged recent progress on inflation, which has resumed moderating in recent months after stalling earlier in the year:

    “My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%,” he said

*  *  *

The market was pricing 30bps of cuts in for September ahead of Powell's speech (and 97bps of cuts for 2024 in total... way more than the 25bps DOTS)...

... and was basically unchanged after his comments...

But, stocks, gold, and bonds are all bid on the headlines (and the dollar dumped)...

Bitcoin is also breaking out, back above $62 as the short squeeze looms...

*  *  *
Powell's Full Remarks:

*  *  *

Earlier...

Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Speech Preview

The Jackson Hole schedule was released last night, announcing Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache and Bank of Brazil Governor Roberto Campos Neto will join ECB Board Member Philip Lane on the Saturday overview panel. Both Wolden Bache and Campos Neto have recently had to put a heavy emphasis on exchange rate fluctuations when discussing policy transmission. Wolden Bache has pushed back on some efforts to encourage Norges Bank to control the exchange rate more tightly, and argued FX flexibility is essential for a small, open economy. Krone depreciation features prominently in the Bank’s NEMO model, and is a key reason why they have pledged to hold rates steady. Norges has also shown some concern over how differences in housing market structures can impact monetary policy transmission. And recently they revised their estimate of the neutral rate slightly higher, with an emphasis on global factors. Campos Neto also recently discussed structural factors contributing to a high neutral rate in Brazil in a panel discussion at Sintra, many of which have been exacerbated since Covid including subsidized credit, the debt trajectory, and changes in productivity. Panelists typically give brief speeches at the start of the panel before the broader discussion begins.

Chair Powell will deliver his speech on the economic outlook at 10:00am ET, available via webcast. BoE Governor Bailey will be giving the luncheon address at 3:00pm ET. Text of the papers and speeches will be posted to the website at the time each event is scheduled to begin.

Various Fed speakers will also be giving interviews throughout the day—see the table below for a compilation of what has been announced so far, times may not be exact.

Here is the Fed speaker schedule currently set:

    8am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on CNBC
    9am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Bloomberg Television
    10am: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
    11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Bloomberg Television
    12:30pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
    1:45pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business
    2:15pm: Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV

Yesterday, Collins and Harker gave sideline interviews with Bloomberg, CNBC, MNI, and Fox Business. Harker noted that he thinks the Fed “needs to start a process of moving rates down” in September, but that he needs to see a few more weeks of data to determine whether 25bp or 50bp is appropriate. Collins also said she sees it “soon being appropriate to begin easing policy,” and reiterated that “data will tell us what kind of pace makes sense.”  The ECB’s Martins Kazaks also gave an interview yesterday and expressed that he would be “very much open for a discussion of yet another rate cut in September” given recent data.

Goldman's US economics team expects Chair Powell to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then. A speech along these lines would be consistent with our economists’ forecast of a string of three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, November, and December.

Taking a closer look at what Powell may say today, the focus will be on any hints about the coming Sept rate cut size, whether it is 25 or 50bps. Here are some thoughts on the matter from NewsSquawk:

The gathering of central bankers, academics and policymakers is often looked to for policy' steer, with focus on any updated assessments on the state of the US economy, and the trajectory of monetary policy. Powell last month said that if inflation and the labor market continued to cool, a rate cut may be appropriate at the September 18th FOMC meeting. For that meeting, money markets are currently pricing around 34bps of rate cuts, which essentially says a 25bps rate reduction is fully expected, with some incremental probability the Fed could go for a larger 50bps cut. The dovish pricing has pared back in recent weeks as inflation continues to cool, and the labor market continues to look resilient amid its slowdown (at one point, markets were fully expecting a 50bps rate reduction a few weeks ago. when growth jitters stoked concerns the Fed may be behind the curve). Powell will also likely be asked about the size of the rate cut. and traders will be watching to see if he leans back on calls for the larger cut (when he was asked about this in July. Powell said it was not something the Fed was thinking about right now). WSJ Fed watcher Nick Timiraos said many officials are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month, but are not sure how fast they should go thereafter, adding that labor market data for August could tip the scales in favour of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July's readings.

THEMES:

Bank of America says there is a chance Powell could opt for a straightforward update, taking a similar line to which he did in his post-meeting press conference in July: a shift in language from that July message could suggest the committee is nearing, or is dose to. considering easing measures. BofA said. A further signal could be if Powell is stronger in saying that the committee wants to avoid unexpected weakness' in the labor market, rather than simply responding to it after it occurs." it wrote. Powell might refer to the June Summary of Economic Projections, which indicated a gradual removal of policy accommodation due to economic uncertainty. "The Fed s definition of achieving a soft landing is bringing inflation back to target without requiring a deterioration in labor market conditions,’’ BofA says. "the battle on inflation isn’t entirely won, but the message could be that it's been won enough where the emphasis now will be on preventing undesired weakness in the labor market."

MARKET REACTION:

Meanwhile, analysts at Barclays note some investor concerns about the Fed being 'behind the curve', with the balance of risks now tilted towards the employment mandate. Barclays says investors look for more clarity around the new equilibrium policy rate and the path to that rate.

"Crucially, Jackson Hole has become more of a market moving event in recent history," it writes, "for instance, across assets the average vol-adjustedmove in the 2017-2022 was 1.7x larger vs. the 2010-2016 period." The bank notes that S&P options currently appear to be fair, as they are pricing a 75bps move, broadly in line with historical pricing (68bps) and average realized moves (72bps). "However, looking at a universe of 35 ETF with liquid options and spanning four asset classes, options on a number of International equity ETFs (EM & EU equity) currently price-in the cheapest moves vs history.

Looking at futures this morning, risk is sharply higher on expectations of a dovish Powell speech, but two years ago, the Fed chair surprised the market by delivering a hawkish speech that sent the S&P 500 tumbling 3.4%, while 10-year yields swung by 8bps intraday.

Finally, a word of caution from BofA's Michael Hartnett (full note here for pro subs) who reminds us 5 of 6 Powell Jackson Hole speeches saw the S&P 500 drop 7.5% on average in the next 3 months...

...and he asks "Who’s left to buy?" with BofA private client allocation at 62% (Chart 15), and S&P 500 corp cash just 8.8% of assets (Chart 4), often a bearish tip-off

For those looking for more, here is another JHole preview from Rabobank, but here are the key points:

Rabobank's Fed strategist recently revised his call from one rate cut per quarter to four consecutive cuts starting in September. He believes a (mild) recession is due to begin – if it hasn’t already. Fed Chair Powell could give the starting sign at the Jackson Hole conference today, but he may also give some hints that the market is pricing too aggressive an easing cycle. Of course, there are limitations to the forward guidance Powell can provide, as he does not want to overcommit to any particular outcome in September.

So what room does he have?

    Powell could indicate that he has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The FOMC was not yet ready to alter its formal statement in July to include this message, but Powell certainly was willing to at the press conference. The inflation data since then have been encouraging, so Powell could confirm that his confidence in the disinflationary process is improving.
    Meanwhile, Powell could stress the weakness in labour market data as a second – and more urgent – argument for rate cuts. In the July statement, the FOMC already said that it is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
    Finally, the Fed Chair could indicate whether the baseline is a 25bp or 50bp cut. A full set of data will still be released between Powell’s speech and the September meeting, so it would be premature for him to signal the exact size of the forthcoming rate cut. However, he could signal that the Fed is still leaning towards a 25bp reduction, rather than the 50bp that some market participants are still expecting. For example, Powell could stress that he is confident in the stability of markets, and that he does not believe the Fed is behind the curve.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-jackson-hole-day-heres-what-watch
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1056 em: 2024-08-24 17:36:18 »
«The Top 10 Countries By Gold Reserves In 2024 (& Who's Adding Most)

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by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Aug 24, 2024 - 04:15 AM


Central banks hold gold reserves due to their safety, liquidity, and return characteristics.

They are significant owners of gold, accounting for approximately a fifth of all the gold mined throughout history.

The country with the most gold is the United States, with 8,133 tonnes, which has a value of $579 billion.

The top ten countries in total gold reserves (tonnes) as of May 2024.

These figures come from the World Gold Council.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, increased sanctions, and discussions around de-dollarization, interest in gold purchases is rising.

But which countries are leading the charge in increasing their gold reserves?

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks the top 10 countries by the change in gold reserves over the past decade (2013-2023).

The figures, measured in tonnes, were compiled by the World Gold Council.
Russia and China Lead in Gold Purchases

Central banks, particularly those of Russia and China, have bought gold at the fastest pace as countries seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.

Russia’s reserves jumped from 1,035 tonnes in 2013 to 2,333 in 2023. China’s reserves rose from 1,054 tonnes to 2,235 in 2023.

In third place in our ranking of central bank gold additions, Türkiye increased its reserves from 116 tonnes in 2013 to 540 tonnes in 2023.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-10-countries-gold-reserves-2024-whos-adding-most
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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1057 em: 2024-09-12 10:31:40 »
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1058 em: 2024-09-12 11:00:20 »
Lembro-me desse ano, 1971!

O administrador da empresa
onde trabalhava, receava
a desordem que adviria
do dólar desligado
do ouro.

Eu, optimista, argumentava
a liberdade política de
influir na economia
a favor de crescer.

Tínhamos ido à Lua e voltado.
Ganháramos a MaiorIdade!

Nem ele, nem eu tínhamos razão.
A indeterminação de caminhos continua.

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1059 em: 2024-09-13 00:47:11 »
Interessante!!   :)

Pois eu, desse ano, 1971, não lembro grande coisa (só tinha 2 anos...)   8)

Mas sim, adivinhar o futuro é quase impossível, e, sim, "A indeterminação de caminhos continua."!!   ;D
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Qui docet, discit; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there; Let's make Rome great again!
Oui, nous savons que la fin s'approche...