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Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1040 em: 2024-03-30 02:48:44 »
O ouro vai de vento em popa. Reduzi um pouco a posição que tinha, com ganhos.

Pois, tem vindo a subir bem...   :)
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1041 em: 2024-04-03 01:26:58 »
Acerca do famoso "gold standard":


«Bring Back Gold!

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Apr 03, 2024 - 01:20 AM


Authored by Llewellyn Rockwell via LewRockwell.com,


In these days of rampant inflation, it’s imperative that we return to the gold standard - and the real thing too.

By this I mean the classical gold standard, not the so-called “gold exchange” standard, and with no fractional reserve banking, just as the great Murray Rothbard wanted. In what follows, I’ll discuss some of the economic issues below, but it’s important to realize that it’s a moral issue as well.

I spoke about the difference between the classical gold standard and the fake gold standard. This might seem a technical issue, but it’s one of vital importance. Joe Salerno, the leading contemporary Austrian School authority on monetary economics and Academic Vice President of the Mises Institute, explains:

    “The historical embodiment of monetary freedom is the gold standard. The era of its greatest flourishing was not coincidentally the 19th century, the century in which classical liberal ideology reigned, a century of unprecedented material progress and peaceful relations between nations. Unfortunately, the monetary freedom represented by the gold standard, along with many other freedoms of the classical liberal era, was brought to a calamitous end by World War I.

Also, and not so coincidentally, this was the “War to Make the World Safe for Mass Democracy,” a political system which we have all learned by now is the great enemy of freedom in all its social and economic manifestations.

Now, it is true that the gold standard did not disappear overnight, but limped along in weakened form into the early 1930s. But this was not the pre-1914 classical gold standard, in which the actions of private citizens operating on free markets ultimately controlled the supply and value of money and governments had very little influence.

Under this monetary system, if people in one nation demanded more money to carry out more transactions or because they were more uncertain of the future, they would export more goods and financial assets to the rest of the world, while importing less. As a result, additional gold would flow in through a surplus in the balance of payments increasing the nation’s money supply.

Sometimes, private banks tried to inflate the money supply by issuing additional bank notes and deposits, called “fiduciary media,” promising to pay gold but unbacked by gold reserves. They lent these notes and deposits to either businesses or the government. However, as soon as the borrowers spent these additional fractional-reserve notes and deposits, domestic incomes and prices would begin to rise.

As a result, foreigners would reduce their purchases of the nation’s exports, and domestic residents would increase their spending on the relatively cheap foreign imports. Gold would flow out of the coffers of the nation’s banks to finance the resulting trade deficit, as the excess paper notes and checks were returned to their issuers for redemption in gold.

To check this outflow of gold reserves, which made their depositors very nervous, the banks would contract the supply of fiduciary media bringing about a monetary deflation and an ensuing depression.

Temporarily chastened by the experience, banks would refrain from again expanding credit for a while. If the Treasury tried to issue convertible notes only partially backed by gold, as it occasionally did, it too would face these consequences and be forced to restrain its note issue within narrow bounds.

Thus, governments and commercial banks under the gold standard did not have much influence over the money supply in the long run. The only sizable inflations that occurred during the 19th century did so during wartime when almost all belligerent nations would “go off the gold standard.” They did so in order to conceal the staggering costs of war from their citizens by printing money rather than raising taxes to pay for it.

For example, Great Britain experienced a substantial inflation at the beginning of the 19th century during the period of the Napoleonic Wars, when it had suspended the convertibility of the British pound into gold. Likewise, the United States and the Confederate States of America both suffered a devastating hyperinflation during the War for Southern Independence, because both sides issued inconvertible Treasury notes to finance budget deficits. It is because politicians and their privileged banks were unable to tamper with and inflate a gold money that prices in the United States and in Great Britain at the close of the 19th century were roughly the same as they were at the beginning of the century.

Within weeks of the outbreak of World War I, all belligerent nations departed from the gold standard. Needless to say by the war’s end the paper fiat currencies of all these nations were in the throes of inflations of varying degrees of severity, with the German hyperinflation that culminated in 1923 being the worst. To put their currencies back in order and to restore the public’s confidence in them, one country after another reinstituted the gold standard during the 1920s.

Unfortunately, the new gold standard of the 1920s was fundamentally different from the classical gold standard. For one thing, under this latter version, gold coin was not used in daily transactions. In Great Britain, for example, the Bank of England would only redeem pounds in large and expensive bars of gold bullion. But gold bullion was mainly useful for financing international trade transactions.

Other countries such as Germany and the smaller countries of Central and Eastern Europe used gold-convertible foreign currencies such as the US dollar or the pound sterling as reserves for their own domestic currencies. This was called the gold-exchange standard.

While the US dollar was technically redeemable in honest-to-goodness gold coin, banks no longer held reserves in gold coin but in Federal Reserve notes. All gold reserves were centralized, by law, in the hands of the Fed and banks were encouraged to use Fed notes to cash checks and pay for checking and savings deposit withdrawals. This meant that very little gold coin circulated among the public in the 1920s, and residents of all nations came increasingly to view the paper IOUs of their central banks as the ultimate embodiment of the dollar, franc, pound, etc.

This state of affairs gave governments and their central banks much greater leeway for manipulating their national money supplies. The Bank of England, for example, could expand the amount of paper claims to gold pounds through the banking system without fearing a run on its gold reserves for two reasons.

Foreign countries on the gold exchange standard would be willing to pile up the paper pounds that flowed out of Great Britain through its balance of payments deficit and not demand immediate conversion into gold. In fact by issuing their own currency to tourists and exporters in exchange for the increasing quantities of inflated paper pounds, foreign central banks were in effect inflating their own money supplies in lock-step with the Bank of England. This drove up prices in their own countries to the inflated level attained by British prices and put an end to the British deficits.

In effect, this system enabled countries such as Great Britain and the United States to export monetary inflation abroad and to run “a deficit without tears” — that is, a balance-of-payments deficit that does not involve a loss of gold.

But even if gold reserves were to drain out of the vaults of the Bank of England or the Fed to foreign nations, British and US citizens would be disinclined, either by law or by custom, to put further pressure on their respective central banks to stop inflating by threatening bank runs to rid themselves of their depreciating notes and retrieve their rightful property left with the banks for safekeeping.

Unfortunately, contemporary economists and economic historians do not grasp the fundamental difference between the hard-money classical gold standard of the 19th century and the inflationary phony gold standard of the 1920s.” See here.

Many people think that even if 100% reserve banking is desirable as an ideal, it would never work in practice. How could banks stay in business if they couldn’t lend their checking deposits? Doesn’t the supply of money need to expand as the economy grows? Murray Rothbard demolishes these objections with characteristic force:

    “Certain standard objections have been raised against 100 percent banking and against 100 percent gold currency in particular. One generally accepted argument against any form of 100 percent banking I find particularly and strikingly curious: that under 100 percent reserves, banks would not be able to continue profitably in business. I see no reason why banks should not be able to charge their customers for their services, as do all other useful businesses. This argument points to the supposedly enormous benefits of banking; if these benefits were really so powerful, then surely the consumers would be willing to pay a service charge for them, just as they pay for traveler’s checks now. If they were not willing to pay the costs of the banking business as they pay the costs of all other industries useful to them, then that would demonstrate the advantages of banking to have been highly overrated. At any rate, there is no reason why banking should not take its chance in the free market with every other industry.

The major objection against 100 percent gold is that this would allegedly leave the economy with an inadequate money supply. Some economists advocate a secular increase of the supply of money in accordance with some criterion: population growth, growth of volume of trade, and the like; others wish the money supply to be adjusted to provide a stable and fixed price level. In both cases, of course, the adjusting and manipulating could only be done by government. These economists have not fully absorbed the great monetary lesson of classical economics: that the supply of money essentially does not matter. Money performs its function by being a medium of exchange; any change in its supply, therefore, will simply adjust itself in the purchasing power of the money unit, that is, in the amount of other goods that money will be able to buy. An increase in the supply of money means merely that more units of money are doing the social work of exchange and therefore that the purchasing power of each unit will decline. Because of this adjustment, money, in contrast to all other useful commodities employed in production or consumption, does not confer a social benefit when its supply increases. The only reason that increased gold mining is useful, in fact, is that the large supply of gold will satisfy more of the non–monetary uses of the gold commodity.

There is therefore never any need for a larger supply of money (aside from the non-monetary uses of gold or silver). An increased supply of money can only benefit one set of people at the expense of another set, and, as we have seen, that is precisely what happens when government or the banks inflate the money supply. And that is precisely what my proposed reform is designed to eliminate. There can, incidentally, never be an actual monetary “shortage,” since the very fact that the market has established and continues to use gold or silver as a monetary commodity shows that enough of it exists to be useful as a medium of exchange.

The number of people, the volume of trade, and all other alleged criteria are therefore merely arbitrary and irrelevant with respect to the supply of money. And as for the ideal of the stable price level, apart from the grave flaws of deciding on a proper index, there are two points that are generally overlooked. In the first place, the very ideal of a stable price level is open to challenge. Hoarding, as we have indicated, is always attacked; and yet it is the freely expressed and desired action on the market. People often wish to increase the real value of their cash balances, or to raise the purchasing power of each dollar. There are many reasons why they might wish to do so. Why should they not have this right, as they have other rights on the free market? And yet only by their “hoarding” taking effect through lower prices can they bring about this result. Only by demanding more cash balances and thus lowering prices can the dollars assume a higher real value. I see no reason why government manipulators should be able to deprive the consuming public of this right.

Second, if people really had an overwhelming desire for a stable price level, they would negotiate all their contracts in some agreed-upon price index. The fact that such a voluntary “tabular standard” has rarely been adopted is an apt enough commentary on those stable-price-level enthusiasts who would impose their ambitions by government coercion.

Money, it is often said, should function as a yardstick, and therefore its value should be stabilized and fixed. Not its value, however, but its weight should be eternally fixed, as are all other weights. Its value, like all other values, should be left to the judgment, estimation and ultimate decision of every individual consumer.” See here.

If we want a true gold standard, can we get back to it? Of course we can. The inflationary monetary policy we have today is the key to the financial elites control over us. Without it brain-dead Biden and his gang of neocon controllers couldn’t function. We must prevail, and we can prevail. As I said in 2002,

    “The power to create money is the most ominous power ever bestowed on any human being. This power is rightly criminalized when it is exercised by private individuals, and even today, everyone knows why counterfeiting is wrong and knavish. Far fewer are aware of the role of the federal government, the Fed, and the fiat dollar in making possible the largest counterfeiting operation in human history, which is called the world dollar standard. Fewer still understand the connection between this officially sanctioned criminality and the business cycle, the rise and collapse of the stock market, and the continued erosion of the value of the dollar.

In fact, I would venture to guess that a sizeable percentage of even educated adults would be astounded to discover that the Federal Reserve does more than manage the nation’s money accounts, that, in fact, its main activity consists in actually creating money that distorts production and creates inflation and the business cycle. In fact, I would go further to suggest that many educated adults believe that gold continues to serve as the ultimate backing of our monetary system, and would be astonished to discover that our money is backed by nothing but more of itself.

We have our work cut out for us, to be sure, mainly at the educational level. We must continue to state the obvious at every opportunity, that the fiat system is exactly what it is, a system of paper money backed by nothing of real value. We must continue to point out that because of this, our economic system is not depression proof, but rather highly vulnerable to complete meltdown. We must continue to draw attention to the only long-term solution: a complete separation of money and state based on the commodity that the market has always chosen as money, namely, gold.

This takes us back to our original question: is the gold standard history? Is it so preposterously unrealistic to advocate it that we might as well move to on other things? It won’t surprise you that my answer is no. If there is one thing that a long-term view of politics teaches, it is that only the long-term really matters.

There will come a time when the current money and banking system, living off credit created by a fiat money system, will be stretched beyond the limit. When it happens, attitudes will turn on a dime. No advocate of the gold standard looks forward to the crisis nor to the human suffering that will come with it. We do, however, look forward to the reassertion of economic law in the field of money and banking. When it becomes incredibly obvious that something drastic must replace the current system, new attention will be paid to the voices that have long cast aspersions on the current system and called for a restoration of sound money.

Must a crisis lead to monetary reforms that we will like? Not necessarily, and, for that matter, a crisis is not a necessary precursor to radical reform. As Mises himself used to emphasize, political history has no predetermined course. Everything depends on the ideas that people hold about fundamental issues of human freedom and the place of government. Under the right conditions, I have no doubt that a gold standard can be completely restored, no matter how unfavorable the current environment appears towards its restoration.

What is essential for us today is to continue the research, the writing, the advocacy for sound money, for a dollar that is as good as gold, for a monetary system that is separate from the state. It is a beautiful vision indeed, one in which the people and not the government and its connected interest groups maintain control of their money and its safe keeping.

What has been true for hundreds of years remains true today. The clearest path to the restoration of economic health is the free market undergirded by a sound monetary system. The clearest path toward economic destruction is for us to stop working toward what is right and true.” See here.

Let’s do everything we can to end the Fed and restore the real gold standard!»


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/bring-back-gold
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there

Kaspov

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Re: Ouro - Tópico principal
« Responder #1042 em: 2024-04-11 21:03:42 »
Mto int., acerca do Au:


«Von Greyerz: Gold & Silver Are Entering Their Exponential Phase

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Apr 11, 2024 - 11:30 AM


Authored by Egon von Greyerz via VonGreyerz.gold,

    "The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit."

    - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Gold is now in a hurry and silver even more so.

The price moves in the coming months and year are likely to be spectacular. The combination of technical and fundamental factors can easily drive gold well above $3,000 and silver to new highs above $50.

Forecasting gold is a mug’s game, as I have often stated.

But that is in the short term.

In the medium to long term, forecasting the Gold price is a cinch.

How can I be so certain?

Well, since the history of gold and money began, gold has always increased in value measured against fiat money.

Voltaire gave us the formula in 1729 when he said:
PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZER0

So why has no investor or layman ever heeded the simple fact that –
ALL CURRENCIES HAVE WITHOUT FAIL GONE TO ZERO.

What most people, including experienced investors, don’t understand is that gold doesn’t  increase in value.

Gold just maintains stable purchasing power. A Roman toga 2000 years ago cost 1 ounce of gold and a tailored suit today also costs 1 ounce of gold.

So it is really totally wrong to talk about gold going up when it is the unit we measure gold in that goes down. Just as all fiat money has done

Just take gold measured in US dollars. As the illustration below shows, the value of the dollar since 1971 has crashed, measured in real terms which is gold.

As the picture shows, 1 ounce of gold cost $35 in 1971. Today 53 years later 1 ounce of gold costs $2,300. So has gold increased in value 66x since 1971?

No of course not, it is the dollar which has declined in value and purchasing power by 98.5% since 1971.

 So what will gold be worth in the next 5 years? That is of course the wrong question.

Instead we must ask how much will the dollar and all currencies decline in real terms in the next few years?

Gold and silver have not increased in line with money supply or inflation and are severely undervalued.

Just look at gold adjusted for US CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the graph below.

So if we inflation adjust the gold price, the 1980 high at $850 would today be $3,590.

But if we adjust the gold price for REAL inflation based on Shadow Government Statistics calculation, the gold price equivalent of  the $850 high would today be $29,200.

In the 1980s the inflation calculation was adjusted, by the US government, to artificially improve/reduce official inflation figures.

And if we adjust the silver price for US CPI, the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $166.

Adjusted for REAL inflation, the $50 high silver in 1980 would today be $1,350.
GOLD – LONG SIDEWAYS MOVES FOLLOWED BY EXPLOSIONS 

Gold makes powerful moves and then goes sideways for long periods. After the gold explosion from $35 in 1971 to $850 in 1980, gold spent 20 years correcting until 2000.

That was the time that we decided that gold was now ready for the next run at the same time as risk in stock markets, debt and derivatives was starting to look dangerous.

So in 2002 we made major investments into physical gold at $300 for investors and for ourselves. At the time I recommended up to 50% of financial assets into gold based on wealth preservation principles and also the fact that gold at the time was unloved and oversold and thus represented excellent value.

WE HAVE LIFTOFF!

As gold went through $2,100 in early March, I declared “GOLD – WE HAVE LIFTOFF!”

Since then gold has moved up another $200 but that is the mere beginning of a secular move.

After the move from $300 in 2002 to $1920 in 2011 gold had a long correction again between 2013 and 2016. The break of the first Maginot Line (see chart) was predictable (article Feb 2019). Then in March 2023 it was clear that the second Maginot Line would break and we were seeing the beginning of the demise of the financial system as four US banks and Credit Suisse collapsed within a mater of days.

I discussed this in my March 2023 article “THIS IS IT! THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS TERMINALLY BROKEN”

HOLDING GOLD REQUIRES PATIENCE

The message I want to convey with the two graphs above is that gold investing requires patience and obviously timing of the entry points. But in the long term investors will be extravagantly rewarded and at the same time hold the best insurance against a rotten system that money can buy.

Gold has consolidated under $2,000 since August 2020. The recent breakout is extremely important and not the end of a move.

No, this is the beginning of a move that will reach heights that today are unfathomable.

I am in no way intending to be sensational, but just trying to explain that fundamental and technical factors are now pointing to a secular bull market in gold and silver.

Also, normal measures of overbought will not be valid. Gold and silver will in the coming months be overbought for long periods of time.

But don’t forget that there will also be vicious corrections, especially in silver which is not for widows and orphans.

I want to emphasise again that our intention to invest heavily in gold and much less heavily in silver (much more volatile), was primarily for long term wealth preservation reasons. That reason is more valid than ever today.
THE EVERYTHING COLLAPSE WILL COME

Since we have been expecting the “Everything Bubble” to turn into the “Everything Collapse” (see my article April 2023), all the bubble assets like stocks, bonds and property are likely to decline substantially in real terms which means measured in gold.

I willingly admit that I have been premature in predicting the Everything Bubble to collapse in nominal terms. But in real terms almost all major asset classes have underperformed gold since 2000 including stocks.

It is only the illusion of growth and prosperity based on worthless money creation that keeps this circus travelling on. But the circus acts will soon run out of tricks as the world discovers that this is only a mirage which has totally deluded us.

If we take stocks as an example, gold has outperformed the Dow and S&P since 2,000.

Hers is what I wrote 2 weeks ago:
The world’s best kept investment secret is GOLD.

    Gold has gone up 7.5X this century

    Gold Compound annual return since 2000 is 9.2%

    Dow Jones Compound annual return since 2000 is 7.7% incl. reinvested dividends

    So why are only 0.6% of global financial assets in gold?

    The simple answer is that most investors don’t understand gold because governments suppress the virtues of gold.

See my article on this subject

Stocks are now in position where we could have a major decline/collapse at any time.
WOLVES IN SHEEP’S CLOTHING

So back to the circus. The leaders of the Western World, whether we take the US, UK, Canada, Germany, France etc are mere clowns trying to fool their people with fake costumes (wolf in sheep’s clothing) and fake acts whether it is: 

Money printing, debts, vaccines, climate, war, migration, more lies, propaganda, moral and ethical decadence to mention but a few of the problems that are leading us to the collapse of the Western World.

Real clowns would probably do a better job than current leaders. They would at least entertain us instead of bringing the misery that a majority of people are currently experiencing.

Yes, I am aware that there is a small elite that is benefiting dramatically from the shameful mismanagement of the world economy whilst the majority suffers badly from inept leadership around the world.

So how will this end? In my view, as I have outlined in many articles, it can only end one way which is a total collapse of the financial system as well as of the political system.

Will we first have hyperinflation and then a deflationary implosion or will it go straight to the implosion. Will there be a global war. Well, the US and most Western leaders are doing their utmost to start a World War against the will of the people. There is absolutely no attempt to find a peaceful solution.

Instead it is more weapons and more money to escalate the war as well as pushing as many countries as possible into NATO. Both Biden and Stoltenberg (NATO leader) also want Ukraine – a warring nation – into NATO.

And with today’s sophisticated and dangerous weapons, no one can win a war.

Obviously, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran would win a war with boots on the ground at a cost of 100s of millions of lives. But modern wars are won in the air. And with around 15,000 nuclear warheads, the world can be destroyed many times over in a few minutes.

The world has never had a global economic and political crisis of this magnitude with so many destructive weapons, both financial (debt, derivatives) and military.

So to forecast the outcome is clearly impossible. One can only hope that people power will prevail and that incompetent leaders will be pushed out.

Otherwise there is little us ordinary people can do.

Wealth preservation in the form of physical gold, owned directly and in a safe jurisdiction (countries like the US, Canada or EU are not safe politically) is clearly the best insurance investors can buy.

Also we must assist family and friends in the difficult times ahead and make that circle the kernel of our lives (if it isn’t already).

And remember that most of the wonderful things in life are free like nature, music, books etc.»


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-gold-silver-are-entering-their-exponential-phase
Gloria in excelsis Deo; Jai guru dev; There's more than meets the eye; I don't know where but she sends me there