salvador podes por favor explicar o indicador? É que não faço ideia do que representa...
está escarrapachado no titulo do topico.
Shiller 10 Year PE
Elias,
The Shiller P/E ratio is computed by taking the current price and dividing by the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. This measurement is also known as the cyclically adjusted PE ratio (CAPE ratio), or P/E 10.
Using 10 years of earnings allows movements in price to play their important role in market cycles. After price has fallen but before earnings have recovered is the best time to invest. The ttm P/E ratio will still look bad, but the P/E 10 will be signaling a buy. Similarly, when the markets are doing well and the last year of earnings make it look like P/E ttm ratios are attractive, the P/E 10 will be signaling you to consider trimming stocks that now look expensive.
In his book “Irrational Exuberance,” Shiller shows that P/E 10 is correlated to the subsequent 20-year annualized return after inflation. A low P/E bodes well for the next 20 years of investing, whereas a higher P/E 10 suggests a lower expected return.
Esta aqui o artigo que resume o indicador e o livro Irrational Exuberance do Shiller:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmarotta/2012/04/30/the-shiller-ten-year-pe-ratio/1/