Prevendo os países com tendência a falir

[Kin2010]

Ora aqui está uma estatística que me leva a pensar que muito está por fazer para os países Club Med poderem cometir a sério no mundo globalizado. Os nossos comentadores da TV deviam estar a discutir isto e não as macaquices irrelevantes do costume.

This is a website that ranks nations on the basis of the economic freedom their people have to establish businesses and employ people and so on.

http://www.heritage.org/index/
 
Denmark Ireland, UK and  Netherlands, Sweden and Germany are all in the top 20 at 9th 11th,14th,17th,18th and 19th,

and all the rest

Belgium 40th
Cyprus 41st
Spain 46th
France 62nd
Portugal 67th
Italy  83rd
Greece 117th

[jeab]

E a Roménia em 59ª a Bulgária em 60ª... à frente de nós ( 67º) ... dasss

[Thorn Gilts]

Default Probability

podes calcular aqui

A country's or company's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread is the cost (per year) for protection against a default on debt by a particular company or sovereign entity.

With this application, using the proper discounting and some basic probability math, we get the Credit Default Probability for a given country's or company's based on the CDS spread.

But the application does more:

In theory CDS spread should be closely related to Bond Yields Spread. Then, using the Yield on an n-year par Bond Yield on an n-year par Bond issued by the entity being analyzed, and the Bond Yield on an n-year par risk-less Bond, is possible estimate the closely CDS Spread and the Credit Default Probability.

[Zel]

pelo menos temos os impostos escandinavos