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Autor Tópico: Krugman et al  (Lida 606911 vezes)

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2360 em: 2015-09-09 21:21:20 »
Não passa pela bateria, é possível ligar o portátil sem bateria. Aliás, ter o portátil ligado com a bateria faz mal à bateria (porque mantém esta próxima/nos 100%, o que é mau para a longevidade da mesma. As baterias li-ion dão-se mal com manter cargas muito elevadas, muito baixas ou com temperaturas elevadas para a longevidade ou baixas para a capacidade).

pois. é isso que não percebo. é muito difícil fazer reconhecer ao portátil que está a ser alimentado pela rede, e passar ao lado da bateria?
lá vou ter que substituir a bateria.

L

Experimenta ligar o portátil directamente à corrente. Não penso que exista razão para não funcionar, ou para o som não funcionar. Experimenta headphones. Curiosamente o meu antigo o som também não funciona pelas colunas mas funciona via headphones.

queres dizer retirar-lhe a bateria. ligado directamente à corrente está ele.

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Incognitus

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2361 em: 2015-09-10 00:00:42 »
Não passa pela bateria, é possível ligar o portátil sem bateria. Aliás, ter o portátil ligado com a bateria faz mal à bateria (porque mantém esta próxima/nos 100%, o que é mau para a longevidade da mesma. As baterias li-ion dão-se mal com manter cargas muito elevadas, muito baixas ou com temperaturas elevadas para a longevidade ou baixas para a capacidade).

pois. é isso que não percebo. é muito difícil fazer reconhecer ao portátil que está a ser alimentado pela rede, e passar ao lado da bateria?
lá vou ter que substituir a bateria.

L

Experimenta ligar o portátil directamente à corrente. Não penso que exista razão para não funcionar, ou para o som não funcionar. Experimenta headphones. Curiosamente o meu antigo o som também não funciona pelas colunas mas funciona via headphones.

queres dizer retirar-lhe a bateria. ligado directamente à corrente está ele.

L

Sim, ligar à corrente sem a bateria instalada.

E experimenta headphones, também.
« Última modificação: 2015-09-10 00:01:06 por Incognitus »
"Nem tudo o que pode ser contado conta, e nem tudo o que conta pode ser contado.", Albert Einstein

Incognitus, www.thinkfn.com

mbarrela

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2362 em: 2015-09-10 01:15:24 »
Tanta coisa em salvar bancos e o caraças ...

Metam mas é as impressoras a bombar e depositem 1 milhão por cada pessoa e prontos ... ficamos todos bem na vida e sem grandes preocupações :D

Mais dinheiro, Mais Consumo, Mais Produção, Maior Crescimento da Economia ... acho que não me falta nada :D




itg00022289

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Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2364 em: 2015-09-11 00:48:57 »
Paul Krugman Is "Really, Really Worried" That He Might Have Screwed Up Japan

Late last year, a very important and very “powerful” man took a field trip to Japan to observe Keynesian insanity prowling around in its natural habitat...

That’s right, last November Paul Krugman - the mere mention of whom is enough to strike terror in the hearts and minds of the sane - found himself in a limousine with Japanese economist Etsuro Honda who was intent on securing the Nobel laureate's help in convincing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to delay a planned (and prudent) sales tax hike. As a reminder, here’s how Bloomberg described the “historic” series of events:

When Japanese economist Etsuro Honda heard that Paul Krugman was planning a visit to Tokyo, he saw an opportunity to seize the advantage in Japan’s sales-tax debate.
 
With a December deadline approaching, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was considering whether to go ahead with a 2015 boost to the consumption levy. Evidence was mounting that the world’s third-largest economy was struggling to shake off the blow from raising the rate in April, which had triggered Japan’s deepest quarterly contraction since the global credit crisis.
 
Honda, 59, an academic who’s known Abe, 60, for three decades and serves as an economic adviser to the prime minister, had opposed the April move and was telling him to delay the next one. Enter Krugman, the Nobel laureate who had been writing columns on why a postponement was needed.
 
It was in a limousine ride from the Imperial Hotel that Honda told Krugman, 61, what was at stake for the meeting. The economist, who’s now heading to the City University of New York from Princeton University, had the chance to help convince the prime minister that he had to put off the 2015 increase.
 
The concept of outside opinion influencing Japanese decision-making is known as gaiatsu, or foreign pressure, in Japanese, and has historical precedent since at least the arrival of U.S. Commodore Matthew Perry’s squadron in 1853 in Tokyo Bay, which led to an opening in the nation’s trade policies. Gaiatsu also has been used as cover by Japanese officials when they’ve pushed through controversial measures.
 
Krugman plays down his role, saying the Nov. 6 meeting with Abe “was very straightforward.”
But Honda tells a different story:

“That nailed Abe’s decision -- Krugman was Krugman, he was so powerful.”

Yes, “Krugman was Krugman,” which means everyone in attendance was subjected to 40 minutes of crisply-worded nonsense and unlike Deputy Riksbank Governor Per Jansson - who, earlier this year, suggested that Krugman “write fewer articles and have more of a look at the data” after Krugman essentially accused Sweden’s central bank of being an evil cabal of job-hating heretics motivated by an overwhelming (not to mention completely inexplicable) desire to perpetuate global inequality by enriching creditors at the expense of impoverished debtors - no one had the good sense to tell him to shut up.

Sure enough, the tax hike was delayed.

Just days earlier, Krugman penned the following laughably ridiculous words in a blog post explaining why Japan should avoid doing anything that could be mistaken for a rollback of Abenomics:

When I see, say, the IMF inserting into its latest Japan survey a section titled “Maintaining focus on fiscal sustainability” my heart sinks (and so, maybe, does Abenomics); [even though] it’s hard to argue against sustainability.
It sure is, but Krugman will do it and powerful people will unfortunately listen and by the time everyone realizes that efforts to micromanage economic outcomes and smooth out the business cycle by cranking up the printing presses and gluing rates to the zero lower bound have failed it will be far, far too late to normalize which of course is precisely what's unfolding across the world today.

We retold the story presented above because on Thursday a very funny thing happened: Paul Krugman told an audience in Tokyo that he is "really, really worried" that Abenomics might fail. Here's Bloomberg:

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said risks of failure are growing for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s "Abenomics" campaign to end Japan’s two-decade slump.
 
“I’m still really, really worried,” Krugman said at a conference in Tokyo on Wednesday. A big problem remains building enough momentum in the economy to escape deflation, he said.
 
“Japan has spent a long time in this deflationary trouble," said Krugman, who helped convince Abe to delay another planned increase in the nation’s sales tax after a hike in April last year pushed the world’s third-biggest economy into a recession.
 
Japan needs to reach a point where everyone believes that it has pulled out of deflation, he said. "And then if that can be believed, then it may be able to stay out of trouble thereafter,” he said.

Reading that, we're reminded of BoJ cheif Haruhiko Kuroda, who, back in June, hilariously likened himself and his fellow DM central bankers to Peter Pan when he said the following about what's needed to perpetuate the central bank omnipotence myth:

"I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, 'the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.' Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction."

What Krugman and Pan are both tacitly admitting, is that Abenomics has demonstrably failed and the only thing that can save Japan now is for everyone to suspend disbelief in the face of voluminous evidence that what Kuroda and Abe (at Krugman's behest) are doing simply isn't working.

And because "Krugman is Krugman", we're never more than one Google search away from a hilarious soundbite from the New York Times blog archives, and so it's with great pleasure and with everything said above in mind, that we leave you with the following excerpt from a Krugman classic entitled "Why Keynes Is Slowing Winning" ca. 2014:

"Why does the tide finally seem to be turning? Partly, I think, it’s just a matter of time; after six years it’s becoming hard not to notice that the anti-Keynesians have been wrong about everything. And the refusal of almost everyone on the anti-Keynesian side to admit any kind of error has gradually made them look ridiculous."

zh
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2365 em: 2015-09-11 00:51:06 »
??

já li e reli o artigo quatro ou cinco vezes e não consigo encontrar no texto o que autor afirma no título.
posso estar a ver mal, mas o artigo é completamente desprovido de conteúdo. é um relato da visita do krugman ao Japão em 2014.

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Thunder

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2366 em: 2015-09-11 10:42:03 »
Lark, algum comentário ao meu 2º post da pág 119?

Thanks!
Nullius in Verba
Divide et Impera
Não há almoços grátis
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
Bulls make money, bears make money.... pigs get slaughtered

vbm

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2367 em: 2015-09-11 12:48:34 »
Tenho de voltar a ler estes extractos! ...

Thunder

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2368 em: 2015-09-11 14:37:07 »
Vbm, tinha uma pergunta para ti na página 117, se calhar não reparaste.
Nullius in Verba
Divide et Impera
Não há almoços grátis
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
Bulls make money, bears make money.... pigs get slaughtered

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2369 em: 2015-09-11 15:21:24 »
Por exemplo em relação à questão da % de reserva, penso que foram países como a Alemanha que queriam maiores %s de reserva (Basileia III ? 12% ? ... não sou expert na matéria) e que queriam ver portadores de bonds a arder. Isto mais ou menos em 2009 salvo erro. Seria uma posição desfavorável para rentiers, banksters, status quo ... mas levam porrada forte e feio da imprensa com veia mais anglo-saxônica.

Em relação a posição dele em relação aos banksters, do que eu me lembro ele tinha uma posição bastante ácida. No fundo tinha uma posição de repulsa, asco.
Assim sendo não entendo como ele não aborda o facto de como o plano Paulson (TARP ?), QE, ZIRP terem literalmente salvo quantidades enormes de patrimônio a esses mesmos banksters.


a 'obrigatoriedade' do bailout dos bancos, sem queimar os bondholders tem uma razão. No contexto em que os US se encontravam, com a massa monetária a contraír a uma velocidade impressionante, queimar os bondholders só aceleraria essa contração. Seria mais dívida destruída.

Se a crise foi muito séria, se se tivesse feito o que advogas, teria sido uma catástrofe maior que a dos anos trinta.
A última coisa que se quer fazer no contexto de um golpe deflacionário brutal como foi, é destruír mais massa monetária.

É justo? Não. Mas é o menor dos males.
Premeia os banksters? Sim. Mas é o menor dos males.

A prioridade era sair da espiral deflacionária. A seguir logo se trataria de evitar que os banksters fizessem outra golpada no futuro.
E tratou-se. A lei aprovada pelo congresso - Dodd-Frank  - é terrivelmente penalizadora para futuras manigâncias do género da bolha imobiliária.
O problema com a lei, é que tem que ser regulamentada, isto é têm que ser postos em marcha regulamentos para as diversas agências reguladoras - SEC, FDIC, FED etc etc, baseados nos pressupostos da lei.
A Dodd-Frank foi aprovada ainda com uma maioria democrata, anti-filibuster no congresso.
A partir do momento em que essa maioria desapareceu e se tornou numa minoria, a aprovação dos regulamentos passou a ser permanentemente obstaculizada pelos republicanos. Se o Obama soubesse na época o que sabe hoje, tinha enfiado os regulamentos pela goela abaixo dos republicanos, com executive orders.
Mas não sabia e não enfiou. Por isso a regulamentação tem saído a conta-gotas. Os republicanos, que publicamente falam mal de wall street e dos bailouts, privadamente no congresso, defendem wall street com unhas e dentes. É um mega acto de hipocrisia. Digno de se ver. Pode ser que a coisa mude nas eleições de 2016.

L

continua...
« Última modificação: 2015-09-12 00:23:37 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
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If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2370 em: 2015-09-11 20:51:25 »
Paul Krugman says RBA should 'be thinking about cutting interest rates'

Australia may be heading into a recession and the central bank should consider cutting the interest rate, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says.

"There's going to be a hit to the Australian economy, maybe even a recession. Canada is officially in a recession and Canada is in some way less dependent on commodity exports than you are. So you have to be prepared for that," Mr Krugman said.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist and The New York Times columnist was speaking at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas at the Sydney Opera House on Saturday.

Professor Krugman said the Reserve Bank of Australia should start thinking about cutting the cash rate even further, even though the cash rate is at a record low of 2 per cent.

"Probably it's time for the Reserve Bank to be thinking about cutting interest rates, probably thinking about, but not yet, doing anything on the fiscal side.

"It doesn't look that nasty so far but there are pretty severe headwinds facing Australia. So you do the sort of thing as you normally do, which is to lean towards expansion to offset that."

SOME CONCERNS

The Princeton University professor has advocated for expansionary monetary policy, increasing public debt and not signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

His comment comes after last week's gross domestic product print of 0.2 per cent for the June quarter, or 2 per cent annual growth rate.

Professor Krugman said there might also be some concerns with housing prices.

"From the outside it looks like there may be some bubble concerns there as well."

However, any concerns about the economy may be offset by the falling local currency, he said.

"The thing to say, however, is Australia has a flexible exchange rate, it has a lot of external debts but it's mostly in Aussie dollars."

The dollar fell to a fresh six-year low of US69.59¢ last week and some economists say the local currency could fall towards US50¢ by the end of 2016.

"It has a history of pretty successful economic management. I have no views about the current government but we do think about the fact that during the Asian crisis of the late 1990s Australia sailed right through it. Probably it's not that easy this time because China is a lot bigger than Indonesia."

"I'm not exactly optimistic but I'm not panicking. This still a rich, sophisticated country and hopefully politicians are stupid but not too stupid."

CHAFTA SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH 'SUSPICION'

On the China-Australia free trade agreement, Professor Krugman said a trade agreement in the twenty-first century should be viewed with a degree of suspicion.

"In the twenty-first century, trade agreements are mostly not trade agreements. Actually trade of goods, and to an extent services, is pretty free so when someone calls something a trade agreement, it's mostly about things like intellectual property, so I would start from the position of suspicion.

"I'm against the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It's actually about other stuff and it doesn't actually look like a good idea."

Professor Krugman said bringing in foreign workers under a complete open border policy could be incompatible with maintaining a strong social safety net.

Under the proposed China-Australia free trade agreement, the government can, but is not required, to test the availability of Australian workers before allowing in Chinese workers.

"If you don't feel at all conflicted about international labour mobility then there's probably something wrong with you because there are real tradeoffs involved, particularly for advanced countries that are experiencing slowing growth of the labour force and ageing populations.

"If you're trying to sustain a strong social safety net, completely open borders are not going to be compatible with that, so there is a tradeoff," he said.

Professor Krugman added at least in the case of US, allowing in migrant workers without a path to citizenship could be detrimental.

"On the whole I always lean towards allowing more, rather than less immigration, but it is tough. And for the US I would favour reasonably permissive but not wide open borders and above all, a path to citizenship.

"If you don't feel you can do that you shouldn't be allowing in the immigrants at all because one thing that is terrible is creating a permanent class of second-class residents."

 
fonte
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2371 em: 2015-09-11 23:07:41 »
Japan’s Economy, Crippled by Caution

TOKYO — Visitors to Japan are often surprised by how prosperous it seems. It doesn’t look like a deeply depressed economy. And that’s because it isn’t.

Unemployment is low; overall economic growth has been slow for decades, but that’s largely because it’s an aging country with ever fewer people in their prime working years. Measured relative to the number of working-age adults, Japanese growth over the past quarter century has been almost as fast as America’s, and better than Western Europe’s.

Yet Japan is still caught in an economic trap. Persistent deflation has created a society in which people hoard cash, making it hard for policy to respond when bad things happen, which is why the businesspeople I’ve been talking to here are terrified about the possible spillover from China’s troubles.

Deflation has also created worrisome “debt dynamics”: Japan, unlike, say, the United States after World War II, can’t count on growing incomes to make past borrowing irrelevant.

So Japan needs to make a decisive break with its deflationary past. You might think this would be easy. But it isn’t: Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, has been making a real effort, but he has yet to achieve decisive success. And the main reason, I’d argue, is the great difficulty policy makers have in breaking with conventional notions of responsibility.

Respectability, it turns out, can be an economy-killer, and Japan isn’t the only place where this happens.

As I said, you might think that ending deflation is easy. Can’t you just print money? But the question is what do you do with the newly printed money (or, more usually, the bank reserves you’ve just conjured into existence, but let’s call that money-printing for convenience). And that’s where respectability becomes such a problem.

When central banks like the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan print money, they generally use it to buy government debt. In normal times this starts a chain reaction in the financial system: The sellers of that government debt don’t want to sit on idle cash, so they lend it out, stimulating spending and boosting the real economy. And as the economy heats up, wages and prices should eventually start to rise, solving the problem of deflation.

These days, however, interest rates are very low in most major economies, reflecting the weakness of investment demand. What this means is that there’s no real penalty for sitting on cash, and that’s what people and institutions do. The Fed has bought more than $3 trillion in assets since 2008; most of the cash it has pumped out there has ended up just sitting in bank reserves.

How, then, can policy fight deflation?

Well, the answer currently being tried in much of the world is so-called quantitative easing. This involves printing a very large amount of money and using it to buy slightly risky assets, in the hope of doing two things: pushing up asset prices and persuading both investors and consumers that inflation is coming, so they’d better put idle cash to work.

But is this sufficient? Doubtful. America is recovering, but it has taken a long time to get there. Europe’s monetary efforts have fallen well short of expectations. And so far the same is true of “Abenomics,” the bold — but not bold enough — effort to turn Japan around.

What’s remarkable about this record of dubious achievement is that there actually is a surefire way to fight deflation: When you print money, don’t use it to buy assets; use it to buy stuff. That is, run budget deficits paid for with the printing press.

Deficit finance can be laundered, if you like, by issuing new debt while the central bank buys up old debt; in economic terms it makes no difference.

But nobody is doing the obvious thing. Instead, all around the advanced world governments are engaged in fiscal austerity, dragging their economies down, even as their central banks are trying to pump them up. Mr. Abe has been less conventional than most, but even he set his program back with an ill-advised tax increase.

Why? Part of the answer is that demands for austerity serve a political agenda, with panic over the alleged risks of deficits providing an excuse for cuts in social spending. But the biggest reason it’s so hard to fight deflation, I contend, is the curse of conventionality.

After all, printing money to pay for stuff sounds irresponsible, because in normal times it is. And no matter how many times some of us try to explain that these are not normal times, that in a depressed, deflationary economy conventional fiscal prudence is dangerous folly, very few policy makers are willing to stick their necks out and break with convention.

The result is that seven years after the financial crisis, policy is still crippled by caution. Respectability is killing the world economy.

krugman/nyt
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2372 em: 2015-09-12 01:00:54 »
Em relação as infraestruturas no USA estarem más, não posso pronunciar-me. Mas na Alemanha do que conheço (que não é muito) não achei. Autobahns boas, com multiplas faixas, sinalização impecável. Em sítios estavam em obras de melhoramento (zona de Dortmund).
Nacionais em excelente estado.
O centro de Munster, Berlim, Dortmund, pareceram-me num bom ou excelente estado. Munster então adorei.
Berlim com bons sistemas de transportes e montes de obras. Quando aquilo acabar deve ficar um luxo.
Os aeroportos pareceram-me bem razoáveis. Nada de luxos, mas funcionais para o fluxo que vi.
Convém lembramos que os gastos com a reintegração da ex-RDA foram (estimativas que li) perto de 1 000 G Euros ... muita coisa nessa zona ainda deve estar em excelente estado (bem sei que não foi tudo gasto em obras públicas).


um artigo que endereça os dois pontos, seguido do ponto de vista do FMI:


Germany and the USA are falling short on infrastructure investment

“Germany is collapsing.” This was the headline of a recent provocative article in German news magazine Der Spiegel that criticized the sorry state of Germany’s infrastructure, writes Bartek Starodaj. And indeed, even as the U.S. economy appears to be growing strongly for the first time in seven years, and as Germany’s economy limps along, political leaders in both countries have resigned themselves to reducing infrastructure investment and delaying mounting maintenance costs.

This trend has continued despite a growing consensus in both countries on the need for increased infrastructure investment. In Germany, both states and the business community pressed Chancellor Angel Merkel to increase infrastructure spending as that country’s economy began to slow in 2014. Her government has hinted that additional investment might be on the horizon. Nonetheless, the Merkel government still gives priority to balancing the national budget over increasing infrastructure investment.

In the United States, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and state governors have frequently called on the federal government to pass a new infrastructure spending bill. U.S. President Barack Obama even commented to a group of businesses leaders that the country’s infrastructure was “embarrassing,” although he carefully noted the difficulty of securing additional funding. He echoed this message again during last month’s State of the Union address, proclaiming the need for “modern ports, stronger bridges, faster trains, and the fastest internet,” and proposing a bipartisan infrastructure plan that “could make [the United States] stronger for decades to come.” Yet Obama has also remained cautious about increasing income from sources such as the federal gas tax and has failed to secure other financial resources from an equally hesitant Congress.

As Obama correctly pointed out in his State of the Union speech, infrastructure investment can boost productivity and lower costs for businesses and their economic outputs. Poor roads, overburdened rail systems, and aging bridges dampen future growth prospects and add significant costs to businesses and residents. In both Germany and the United States, 30 years of underinvestment is slowly eating away at once-formidable infrastructure networks. A recent International Monetary Fund report singled out the United States and Germany as laggards in their infrastructure investment, despite the long-term economic gains from public investment and today’s historically low borrowing costs.

Federal infrastructure spending in both countries has sunk to record lows, from well over 3 percent of GDP in the early 1970s to under 2 percent in the United States and Germany. The American Society of Civil Engineers frequently releases figures of the annual infrastructure funding gap, which stands at well over $100 billion a year in the United States for the maintenance of existing major roads alone. As a consequence, 32 percent of roads in the United States are in either poor or mediocre condition. In Germany, 40 percent of all bridges are said to be in a “critical” state.

But it will take more than money to fix this problem. The crisis instead demands more flexible solutions and visionary leadership. It requires creative thinking about where and how we choose to make our investments for public benefit, and how we could potentially retrofit existing infrastructure to meet multiple societal goals. Examples could include small-scale neighborhood-level projects that involve citizens, rather than the large-scale projects that might impress initially, but are vulnerable to cost overruns and long delays (about which Germany knows plenty).

In addition to the brick and mortar investments that the United States and Germany need to make, both countries should also look to infrastructure investment as a tool for meeting long-term social or economic goals. This will require looking forward and building the systems that will be resilient and relevant in 10 or 50 years, meeting the environmental or demographic challenges that we know are quickly approaching. In this more expansive view, infrastructure investment means investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy systems, less-crowded schools, transportation systems that meet the needs of an aging population, world-class parks, and high-speed Internet access.

Infrastructure investment is an imperative for both the United States and Europe. Just as importantly, this investment must be tied to a larger consciousness and vision of the kind of societies that both Germany and the United States want to become. Only then will the infrastructure being created now deliver tangible prosperity in the future. And perhaps, this vision will motivate reluctant politicians to make the serious financial commitments that are sorely needed.

fonte

IMF Calls on Germany to Invest More in Infrastructure
Move would increase German growth prospects and offset weak demand in world’s most mature economies, says IMF

BERLIN—The International Monetary Fund called on Germany to invest more in its infrastructure to boost its long-term growth prospects and help offset persistently weak demand in the world’s most mature economies.

The German government’s current plans for spending on infrastructure like public transport and energy efficiency “do not fully address existing needs and a stronger effort would be warranted,” the IMF said in the preliminary conclusions of its so-called Article IV report, which assesses each country’s economic health.

The IMF stressed that the German economy was in a favorable cyclical position and that its policy advice therefore focused on strengthening the foundations for medium-term growth. Such advice includes steps to make it easier for women to work, to increase competition in the services sector and to pre-empt a potential bubble in the property market.

While investment and consumptions rebounded in Germany last year after decades of mainly export-led growth, its current-account surplus—a measure of excess savings in the economy—has continued to rise, reaching €215.3 billion ($241.1 billion) in 2014, up 14% in a year. This lopsided development has drawn calls from international institutions and other governments on Berlin to do more to support its domestic economy, thus providing a bigger outlet for weaker neighboring economies.

“This is a large surplus, both across countries and historically for Germany, and it’s going to get bigger,” Enrica Detragiache, head of the IMF’s mission to Germany, said. “A country like Germany should have a current-account surplus but not necessarily that large.”

However, German officials argue that the current weakness of the euro, which makes German exports cheaper, and cheap energy prices, which keep import prices in check, are making it more difficult to reduce the surplus.

The IMF said the surplus would be over 8% of German gross domestic product this year, partly because of these twin trends.

As one remedy, the German government should not only spend more on public infrastructure but also better harness private-sector funds, for instance through public-private partnerships at the municipal level, Ms. Detragiache told journalists in Berlin.

More and better public spending wouldn't only increase domestic demand but also improve Germany’s future growth potential and prime corporate investment too, the IMF argues. It would also help offset weak aggregate demand in other European economies that have less leeway to boost public spending because of depleted public coffers.

Germany also needs to reform elements of its tax and benefits system that currently act as a disincentive for women to take on full-time jobs, she said, and scrap legal privileges that insulate professions ranging from architects to consultants, lawyers and tax advisers from competition.

The IMF have been urging those changes on Germany for years, but successive conservative-led governments under Chancellor Angela Merkel have largely ignored the politically sensitive advice.

While property prices have increased in large German cities in recent years after decades of stagnation, there was no sign of a speculative bubble yet, Ms. Detragiache said. But, she added, the government should ensure it had all the tools to tackle such a bubble if it materialized, for instance by moving to constrain mortgage loan eligibility.

wsj
« Última modificação: 2015-09-12 01:02:11 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
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If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
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So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2373 em: 2015-09-12 01:10:36 »
esta questão da infraestrutura, no momento em que entram perto de 1 milhão de refugiados na Alemanha pôs-me a pensar.

A Alemanha está em pleno emprego. O consumo não está grande coisa. Os Alemães poupam demais.
Se a Alemanha fosse investir a sério em infraestruturas iria pôr os salários sobre grande pressão.
O que provocaria inflação.
Que os Alemães não gostam nada.

ora bem...

entra 1 milhão de refugiados no país. Não sei qual será a proporção de working age workers, mas vamo imaginar 3:1. mais de trezentos mil homens e mulheres em idade de trabalhar. no duro.

Em quê?

Num plano 'monstro' de investimento em infraestruturas. Na construção destas mesmas infraestruturas.

Deixa de haver pressão sobre os salários alemães. Não há inflação.
Mas passou a haver mais 1 milhão de consumidores. Que como não têm nada, vão ter que comprar tudo.
Mobílias, equipamentos de cozinha, tapetes, toalhas, you name it.

Problema do investimento em infraestruturas resolvido! Problema do consumo resolvido!

Daqui a  um par de anos o DAX está na estratosfera.

A Frau Merkl tem 'esperto nos cabeça, pá!'.

L

EDIT: e problema do envelhecimento populacional resolvido.


« Última modificação: 2015-09-12 01:15:03 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2374 em: 2015-09-12 01:33:58 »
Paul Krugman Appears To Endorse Corbynomics

A central contention of Jezzbollah and the Corbynomics team over in my native Britain is that we could just get the Bank of England to print lots of money and then go and spend it on nice things. Those nice things usually being higher salaries for the unions who pay the incomes of those who design such economic policies. However, leaving aside such as those the heart of this Corbynomics is something called Peoples’ Quantitative Easing, designed by one Richard Murphy, a retired chartered accountant who used to specialise in the tax affairs of luvvies. His idea is that if the BoE could print lots of money to save the banks through Quantititive Easing (it didn’t) then why not print lots of money to go buy the sorts of things that Richard Murphy thinks the country needs?

The idea fails firstly because of course the BoE didn’t do QE to save the banks. The BoE did print lots of money which it then gave to the banks, that’s true, that was part of the providing unlimited liquidity at the height of the crisis. That was all paid back some years ago, plus interest, and simply isn’t a feature of the economy today. QE had an entirely different purpose: that was to print money to go and buy risk free assets. This would make people look out along the risk curve in search of yield and thus reduce long term interest rates. Which it has done. And those assets weren’t purchased from banks: indeed, during the ramping up of QE the banks increased their holdings of gilts not reduced them, showing that they weren’t in fact selling them to the BoE. It was pension and insurance funds that were selling.

But, however much Murphy has misunderstood this process he still thinks that printing lots of new money to go spend on treats for the voters is a good idea. At which point everyone else points out that this would be highly inflationary. Creating M0 to spend directly into the real economy is simply monetisation of fiscal policy and is thus highly inflationary. The comeback to that is that, well, if it turns out to be then we can simply raise taxes to remove some aggregate demand from the economy. At which point everyone starts scratching their head. So, you mean that what you’re really proposing is higher taxation to spend on more government spending? This is different from the traditional Labour Party proposals in what manner?

We are told that it’s really very different indeed but no one has managed to tease out of him a coherent explanation as to why. Presumably magic money trees come into it.

But then we get Paul Krugman today:

What’s remarkable about this record of dubious achievement is that there actually is a surefire way to fight deflation: When you print money, don’t use it to buy assets; use it to buy stuff. That is, run budget deficits paid for with the printing press.

Deficit finance can be laundered, if you like, by issuing new debt while the central bank buys up old debt; in economic terms it makes no difference.

But nobody is doing the obvious thing. Instead, all around the advanced world governments are engaged in fiscal austerity, dragging their economies down, even as their central banks are trying to pump them up. Mr. Abe has been less conventional than most, but even he set his program back with an ill-advised tax increase.

Why? Part of the answer is that demands for austerity serve a political agenda, with panic over the alleged risks of deficits providing an excuse for cuts in social spending. But the biggest reason it’s so hard to fight deflation, I contend, is the curse of conventionality.

After all, printing money to pay for stuff sounds irresponsible, because in normal times it is. And no matter how many times some of us try to explain that these are not normal times, that in a depressed, deflationary economy conventional fiscal prudence is dangerous folly, very few policy makers are willing to stick their necks out and break with convention.

The result is that seven years after the financial crisis, policy is still crippled by caution. Respectability is killing the world economy.

At which point I can hear the screams of joy from Downham Market, fully a thousand miles away from me. See, see! A NobelLaureate has backed the policy that I made up by my very self!

However, before that rising self-importance demands ermine as a reward for perspicacity it’s worth pointing out that Krugman is stating the conventional truth: that this is highly inflationary. It’s thus only something to be one when fighting deflation. That isn’t the problem the UK has today. Yes, inflation is currently around and about zero but we know what that is, oil price and food price falls for example. We’re nowhere at all near general deflation. In fact, quite the opposite:

The Bank of England may have to increase its interest rates sooner than expected in order to fend off inflation, one of the UK’s interest rate setters has warned.
Kristin Forbes, a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said that the impact of the pound’s recent appreciation has likely been overstated, and that inflation will rise faster than forecast.

Working alongside two Bank economists, Ms Forbes has produced new analysis to show that sterling’s gains over the past year are unlikely to hold down inflation to the extent the central bank anticipates.

We are on the verge of moving to a less expansionary monetary policy in the UK. Precisely because we have incipient inflation, not deflation. Thus PQE is most definitely not called for: pouring petrol on a fire that is already raging never is recommended.

That printing money to chuck around when in the extremes of deflation is a good idea is nothing new at all: Milton Friedman and others have talked about helicopter money as a tactic for decades now. It’s even possible that Krugman is correct and some economies could do with that being done right now: if Greece had an independent monetary policy and currency I wouldn’t be averse to trying it. But then of course if Greece did have an independent currency and monetary policy then it wouldn’t be necessary because it wouldn’t be where it is now.

But printing money to buy whatever, right now in the UK? It’s a nice retelling of the magic money tree story to get Jezzbollah all whipped up but no more than that. It’s a somewhat crazed idea when we’re already looking to a tightening of monetary policy, not a further loosening of it. That ermine may still be beckoning but that’s a problem with British politics, not economics.

tim worstall
« Última modificação: 2015-09-12 04:31:43 por Lark »
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
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So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

mbarrela

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2375 em: 2015-09-12 21:07:09 »
Continuo a achar que é mais fácil depositar 1 Milhão recorrendo á "impressão" em cada conta bancária e andávamos todos mais felizes.


Tridion

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2376 em: 2015-09-12 21:54:58 »
Dizem que a história se repete.

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Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2377 em: 2015-09-12 22:00:14 »
Dizem que a história se repete.



ah... se isso fosse verdade...
não deixa de afagar o ego do krugman, mas não é assim, nem pouco mais ou menos.

um bocado (é favor) anti-semita, a brincadeira. não curto lá muito.

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Lark

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2378 em: 2015-09-12 23:19:23 »
krugman: Bwahahahaha

L
Be Kind; Everyone You Meet is Fighting a Battle.
Ian Mclaren
------------------------------
If you have more than you need, build a longer table rather than a taller fence.
l6l803399
-------------------------------------------
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.
Franklin D. Roosevelt

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Re: Krugman et al
« Responder #2379 em: 2015-09-13 00:02:31 »
esta questão da infraestrutura, no momento em que entram perto de 1 milhão de refugiados na Alemanha pôs-me a pensar.

A Alemanha está em pleno emprego. O consumo não está grande coisa. Os Alemães poupam demais.
Se a Alemanha fosse investir a sério em infraestruturas iria pôr os salários sobre grande pressão.
O que provocaria inflação.
Que os Alemães não gostam nada.

ora bem...

entra 1 milhão de refugiados no país. Não sei qual será a proporção de working age workers, mas vamo imaginar 3:1. mais de trezentos mil homens e mulheres em idade de trabalhar. no duro.

Em quê?

Num plano 'monstro' de investimento em infraestruturas. Na construção destas mesmas infraestruturas.

Deixa de haver pressão sobre os salários alemães. Não há inflação.
Mas passou a haver mais 1 milhão de consumidores. Que como não têm nada, vão ter que comprar tudo.
Mobílias, equipamentos de cozinha, tapetes, toalhas, you name it.

Problema do investimento em infraestruturas resolvido! Problema do consumo resolvido!

Daqui a  um par de anos o DAX está na estratosfera.

A Frau Merkl tem 'esperto nos cabeça, pá!'.

L

EDIT: e problema do envelhecimento populacional resolvido.

a alemanha tem uma boa economia e um problema demografico parecido com o portugues de modo que precisa de emigrantes, isto poderia ser uma situacao win-win nao fosse a fraca qualidade dos emigrantes arabes qur ja provarem trazerem muitos problemas

ha muita gente por ai a querer emigrar de paises com mais qualidade, a alemanha deveria era ter uma politica de emigracao bem pensada e nao aceitar o que lhe calha na rifa
« Última modificação: 2015-09-13 00:18:04 por Neo-Liberal »